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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| August 13, 2012

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst Nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104 Technical Team Rajeev Darji Sr. Research Analyst rajeev.darji@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6136

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Currencies Daily Report


Monday| August 13, 2012

Highlights
US Federal Budget Balance was at deficit of $69.6 billion in last month. French Gov Budget Balance was at a deficit of 56.7 billion Euros in June. UKs Producer Price Index (PPI) Input increased by 1.3 percent in July. Japans Revised Industrial Production increased by 0.4 percent in June.

Market Highlights (% change)


Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Jun'12) -$/bbl Comex Gold (Jun12) - $/oz Comex Silver(May12) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield 5320.4 17557.7 13207.95 1405.9 14548.6 1946.4 59280.9 8891.4 92.87 1619.70 2805.50 7487.00 467.5 99.85 Prev. day 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 -0.7 0.3 0.8 -1.0 -0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.7 0.0 -0.2

as on August 10, 2012 WoW 2.0 2.1 0.9 1.1 3.0 5.3 3.5 -0.1 1.6 0.9 1.0 0.8 2.1 0.6 MoM 1.8 2.0 3.4 4.8 6.1 7.4 9.1 1.9 6.6 1.8 2.6 -3.0 1.0 -0.5 YoY 3.5 2.9 18.5 25.4 -4.8 7.1 11.1 -1.0 8.3 -7.4 -27.4 -15.8 -17.4 2.6

Asian markets are trading on a mixed note taking cues from weak economic growth in Japan amidst optimism that US Federal Reserve might take further stimulus measures to boost the economic growth. US Import Prices declined by 0.6 percent in July as against previous decline of 2.4 percent in June. Federal Budget Balance was at a deficit of $69.6 billion in last month from previous deficit of $59.7 billion in June. Chinas Trade Balance was at a surplus of 25.1 billion Yuan in July from previous surplus of 31.7 billion Yuan in June. New Loans increased at slow pace of 540 billion Yuan in last month as against a rise of 920 billion Yuan in June. M2 Money Supply increased by 13.9 percent in July with respect to earlier rise of 13.6 percent a month ago.

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) swung between gains and losses and settled with appreciation of 0.2 percent in the last week. However, in the early part of the week the index was trading lower on the back of upbeat global market sentiments triggered by speculation that global central bankers might take stimulus measures to boost the economy. However, towards the end of the week, unfavorable data from the major economies particularly US led to rise in the risk aversion and thereby increase in the demand for the low yielding currency that is DX. US equities ended on a positive note due to better than expected corporate earnings and upbeat global market sentiments anticipating further stimulus measures by the global central bankers to boost the economic health.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR July12 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.63 55.28 55.50 55.50 Prev. day -0.1 -0.2 0.14 0.14

as on August 10, 2012 WoW 0.2 0.8 -1.07 -0.05 MoM -1.0 -0.3 -0.06 -0.05 YoY 10.5 -17.9 22.61 22.74

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.8 percent in the last week tracking upbeat global markets, mixed trend in DX and on expectations that European Central Bank might take steps to curtail the spiraling debt of Euro zone area. Additionally, increase in foreign funds also acted as a positive factor for the currency. However, unfavorable industrial production and manufacturing output from the nation capped gains in the last week. Indian rupee touched a weekly high of 54.96 and closed at 55.29 on Friday. For the current month, FII inflows totaled at Rs 4,794.50 crores till 10 August 2012. While on a year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs th 57,060.30 crores till 10 August 2012. Outlook In todays session we expect rupee to depreciate on the back of mixed global market sentiments along with expectation of rise in the WPI which is expected to be released in the later part of the day today.
US Dollar/INR August12 (NSE/MCX-SX)
th
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend Up

valid for August 13, 2012 Support 55.23/55.03 Resistance 55.56/55.70

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Currencies Daily Report


Monday| August 13, 2012

Euro/INR
Euro depreciated 0.8 percent in the last week resulting from unfavorable data from the Euro zone area despite efforts by the German government to back the bond buying plan by the European Central bank. Additionally, strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the currency. The currency touched an intra-day low of 1.2164 and closed at 1.2289 on Friday. German Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 0.4 percent in July. French Gov Budget Balance was at a deficit of 56.7 billion Euros in June as against a previous deficit of 69.6 billion Euros a month ago. Outlook In todays session we expect Euro to depreciate due to concerns of rising Euro zone debt along with weak economic data from the region. Additionally strength in the DX may exert downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR August12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 68.11/68.01 68.40/68.59 valid for August 13, 2012 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July12 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2289 67.95 68.08 68.1 Prev. day -0.1 -0.1 -0.21 -0.18 WoW -0.8 1.6 -1.08 -1.05

as on August 10, 2012 MoM 0.3 -0.6 -0.38 -0.31 YoY -13.7 -4.8 4.86 4.92

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
On a weekly basis, Pound appreciated by 0.3 percent on the back favorable economic data from the country coupled with upbeat global market sentiments. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of strength in the DX. The currency touched a high of 1.5701 during the week and closed at 1.569 on Friday. UKs Producer Price Index (PPI) Input increased by 1.3 percent in July as against a decline of 2.9 percent in previous month. Outlook We expect Pound to trade on a sideways to down on the back of mixed global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR August 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for August 13, 2012 Support 86.43/86.27 Resistance 86.78/86.95

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July12 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.569 86.73 86.51 Prev. day 0.3 -0.6 -0.10 WoW 0.3 0.5 -0.92

as on August 10, 2012

MoM 0.8 -1.0 0.43

YoY -3.4 -17.6 17.66

86.51

-0.14

-0.91

0.42

17.67

Source: Reuters

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Currencies Daily Report


Monday| August 13, 2012

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.3 percent in the last week on the back of favorable economic data from the country. However, rise in risk appetite in the global markets restricted further upside in the currency. It touched a high of 78.03 in the last week and closed at 78.25 on Friday. Japans Revised Industrial Production increased by 0.4 percent in June from previous decline of 0.1 percent a month ago. Preliminary GDP quarter on quarter grew at a slower pace of 0.3 percent as compared to 1.2 percent in the first quarter. Prelim GDP Price Index declined by 1.1 percent in Q2 of 2012 with respect to decline of 1.3 percent in Q1 of 2012. Outlook We expect Yen to depreciate on account of mixed global market sentiments along with weak economic data from the region. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR August 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for August 13, 2012 Support 70.35/70.05 Resistance 70.85/71.05

JPY (% change)
Last 78.25 0.7058 70.71 70.70 Prev day -0.4 -0.6 0.01 0.01

as on August 10, 2012 WoW -0.3 0.6 -1.22 -1.22 MoM -1.2 -1.5 1.32 1.29 YoY 1.8 -19.5 19.62 19.73

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July12 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on August 13, 2012


Indicator Prelim GDP q/q Country Japan Time (IST) 5:20am Actual 0.3% Forecast 0.6% Previous 1.2% Impact Medium

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