5

Daily Market Note

Bloomberg: GNCP <GO>

www.genghis-capital.com

th

30 August 2012

Equities
NSE Slips But Hanging On..
The NSE 20 share index today slowed down shedding 3 points to close at 3,875.11. All other indices however maintained their
ascendency with the NASI gaining o.o1% to close at 84.37. The FTSE 15 and 25 indices each gained 0.37% and 0.38% to close at
112.42 and 114.77 points, respectively. Local investors preserved their dominance in the market accounting for 70% of the total
turnover with foreign investors conserving their long positions on most counters though resulting in a reduced net inflow of
Kes.6Mn. Equity turnover decreased 41.75% to close 195.78Mn with Bond turnover following the trend to close 22.53% lower
at Kes.6.6Bn.
Market Capitalisation marginally improved to Kes.1.12Tn.
"We don't get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we'll wait, we'll wait indefinitely." - Warren Buffett
The highlights of the days trading activity are listed below:
Table 1: NSE Performance

Table 2: NSE Indices

Market Indices Summary

Top Traders
Equity

Volume

Index

Previous

Today

% change

84.36

84.37

0.01%

CIC Insurance Group Ltd

2,173,600

NASI

Equity Bank Ltd

1,851,500

NSE 20 Share

3878.13

3875.11

-0.08%

Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd

1,471,900

FTSE NSE 15

112.00

112.42

0.37%

Kenya Power Ltd

1,240,700

FTSE NSE 25

114.33

114.77

0.38%

Barclays Bank Ltd

975,500

Gaining Stocks
Equity

Price (KES)

% Change

Olympia Capital Holdings

3.55

9.23

Trans-Century Ltd

24.75

6.45

Pan Africa Insurance

38.00

2.01

Jubilee Holdings Ltd

168.00

1.82

Scangroup Ltd

57.50

1.77

Losing Stocks
Equity

Price (KES)

% Change

Express Kenya Ltd

3.90

-6.02

Longhorn Kenya Ltd

17.17

-3.65

Total Kenya Ltd

16.20

-3.57

British American Ins.

5.85

-2.50

CFC Insurance Ltd

7.35

-1.34

Source: NSE

The Advance/Decline ratio at the close of todays trading

session stood at 19/16 with 19 stocks advancing in price and 16
shedding prices.
Foreign investor improved to 30% in todays trading compared
to 26.02% at the closed yesterdays session.
Todays session resulted in a net inflow of Kes.6Mn compared
to a net inflow of Kes.25.5Mn at the close of the previous
trading session.
The highest foreign investor turnover was recorded on Equity
Bank Ltd (NSE: EQTY) Kes.33.8Mn and Kenya Commercial Ltd
(NSE: KCB) Kes.8.6Mn. The 2 counters accounted for 21.61%
and 71.11% of the total NSE and total foreign activity
respectively.
Equity Bank Ltd (NSE: EQTY) recorded the highest net inflow
of Kes.6Mn.
The highest net outflow was recorded on Kenya Power Ltd
(NSE: KPLC) at Kes.4.8Mn.

Daily Market Note

Table 3: NSE Summary

29th August 2012

30th August 2012

% Change

Market Cap. (Kes.Bn)

1113.46

1120.23

0.61%

Equity T/O: (Kes.Mn)

336.13

195.78

-41.75%

73.98/26.02

69.61/30.39

N/A

21:12

19:16

N/A

8542.00

6617.40

-22.53%

0.00

N/A

0.00%

N/A

Local/Foreign Equity T/O: (%)

Advance:Decline Ratio
Bond T/O: (Kes.Mn)

Sell/Buy Back Transactions T/O:

650.00
(Mn)
Sell/Buy Back Transactions (% of
7.61%
Total Bond T/O)
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Estimates

Table 4: Foreign Equity Turnover

Foreign Investor Equity Turnover

th

30th August 2012

29 August 2012
Buys (Kes)
56,863,877.50
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position

Sales (Kes)

Buys (Kes)

31,314,600.00

Sales (Kes)

65,751,830.00
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position

25,549,277.50

53,594,210.00
6,078,810.00

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Dealers

The Investment sector closed top moving 3.92% up buoyed by the performance of Olympia Capital
Holdings Ltd (NSE: OCH) which gained 9.23% to close at a VWAP Kes.3.55. The index performance was
up 0.23% on the back of four segments posting an improvement in performance.
The Energy & Petroleum segment occupied the bottom spot down 1.10% dragged down by Total Kenya
Ltd (NSE: TOTL) which shed 3.57% to close at a VWAP of Kes.16.20.
Table 5: Daily Segmental Price Performance Analysis

Sector

Constituents

Price Performance (% Change)

Investment

3.92

Banking

10

0.48

Manufacturing

0.16

Telecommunication & Technology

0.12

Construction & Allied

0.21

Insurance

-0.06

Agriculture

-0.17

Automobiles & Accessories

-0.33

Commercial & Services

-0.86

Energy & Petroleum

-0.97

Total Index
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital

60

0.23

Daily Market Note

Trading Ideas:
The table below shows the performance of selected stocks that Genghis Capital recommended in the year.
Table 6: Equity Picks (Fig in KES)

Price at
Recommendation
14.55

Company
Centum Investments Ltd

11.50

Upside
Potential
41.18%

Return to
Date
-20.96%

Target Price Current Price

19.55

Equity Bank Limited

15.80

19.90

22.25

-11.81%

40.82%

KenolKobil Limited
NIC Bank Limited
EA Cables Ltd
Athi River Mining Ltd
Diamond Trust Bank Ltd
KCB Group Ltd
Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd
Kenya Power & Lighting Co.
Nation Media Group Ltd
British American Investments
Cooperative Bank Limited
Kenya Reinsurance Corp.
Scangroup Ltd
Portfolio Return
Source: Genghis Capital Ltd

9.80
26.50
11.80
156.00
88.50
18.50
7.20
15.85
153.00
4.00
11.55
10.05
49.25

16.90
45.50
14.55
198.50
123.40
27.10
17.25
22.00
197.70
6.25
18.50
15.35
59.60

14.80
33.00
10.25
206.00
100.00
25.50
15.15
17.45
205.00
5.85
11.50
11.00
57.50

12.43%
27.47%
29.55%
-3.78%
18.96%
5.90%
12.17%
20.68%
-3.69%
6.40%
37.84%
28.34%
3.52%

51.02%
24.53%
-13.14%
32.05%
12.99%
37.84%
110.42%
10.09%
33.99%
46.25%
-0.43%
9.45%
16.75%
26.11%

Recommendation

HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD

Fixed Income:
Pressure on Yields Amasses
Money Markets: The CBK was active in todays session to mop up Kes.5Bn in excess liquidity through
repurchase agreements and TADs as the interbank rate closed lower at 8.102%.
Primary Markets: The 91-day T-Bill was auctioned today with an oversubscription rate of 251%. The
government accepted Kes.4.8Bn with yields falling to 8.119%. Yields have being decreasing as a result
of increased liquidity from debt redemptions and lower inflation.
Secondary Markets: In the Fixed income market bond activity reduced as turnover down up 22.5 % to
Kes.6.6Bn. IFBs accounted for 45.2% of the activity with a turnover of Kes.3Bn.
Table 7: Short -Term Interest Rates, Treasury Notes & CDs

Tenor

Kenya

Uganda

Tanzania

U.S

LIBOR (USD)

91 Day

8.12%

13.10%

13.06%

0.11%

0.43%

182 Day

9.85%

18.06%

13.53%

0.13%

0.72%

1 Year

10.34%

17.00%

13.54%

0.19%

1.04%

2 Year

11.11%

14.84%

13.81%

0.26%

--

5 Year

11.86%

15.39%

14.74%

0.71%

--

10 Year

12.71%

15.28%

14.99%

1.16%

--

Source: CBK, BOU, BOT, US Treasury, BBA, Genghis Capital

Daily Market Note

Currency:
KES Remains Flat Despite Pressure
Performance: The KES recorded marginal gains and loses. The largest gains were 0.65% in
the ZAR/KES pair and 0.16% in the KES/UGX pair. The largest losses were 1.10% in the GBP/KES
pair and 0.12% against the EUR. The local currency is still expected to weaken slightly against
the dollar due to continual end-month demand mainly by importers. Inflation data for
August which is due to be released next week will aide in giving a direction on the CBR and
the local currency movement.
Table 8: Currency Rate

USD/KES

29th August 2012

84.15

30th August 2012

84.15

GBP/KES

133.25

133.70

EUR/KES

105.58

105.71

ZAR/KES

10.02

9.96

KES/UGX

29.61

29.66

KES/TZS

18.66

18.67

Currency Pair

INR/KES
Source: Bloomberg 4.00pm E.A.T, Genghis Est.

1.51
th

27 Jan 2012

1.51
th

30 Jan 2012

Technical Analysis and Outlook: The chart below shows the candle sticks for the USDKES
pair for the year. Over the past few months this pair has been dominated by Double Dojis
Estimatesindicating a preparation for a major move but the regulator has been very active in the
market ensuring this pair remains stable at current rates.

Daily Market Note

Genghis Index:

Table 9: Genghis Index Performance

Large-Cap Index

The index was up 0.34% as Market Capitalisation

ascended to Kes.9128Bn.
The best performing counter in this segment was
Safaricom Ltd (NSE: SCOM) up 1.32%.
Losing by the biggest margin in this segment was
Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd (NSE: MSC) shedding 0.78%.
Mid-Cap Index

The Index closed gained 0.27% over yesterdays close

as Market Capitalisation was up to Kes.135.5Bn.
This sections best performer was Trans-Century Ltd
(NSE: TCL) up 6.45%.
Losing by the biggest margin was Total Kenya Ltd
(NSE: TOTL) down 3.57%.
Small-Cap Index
Source: Genghis Capital

Price performance was down 0.19% with market

capitalization also declining to Kes.21.6Bn.
Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd (NSE: OCH) gained 9.23%
to lead the section as the best performer.
Losing by the biggest margin, was Express Kenya Ltd
(NSE: XPRS) shedding 6.02%.

Daily Market Note

GENGHIS LARGE CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05

Total
Shares Outstanding

Mkt Cap.
Kshs Mn.

Total Shares Traded

Price Change

EPS

DPS

P/E

Dividend
Yield - %

40,000,000,000

154,000,000,000

774,300

1.32%

0.32

0.22

12.03

5.71%

790,774,356

177,924,230,100

18,100

0.90%

13.46

8.75

16.72

3.89%

Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50

3,702,777,020

82,386,788,695

1,851,500

1.14%

2.79

1.00

7.97

4.49%

Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 0.50

5,431,536,000

80,386,732,800

975,500

1.72%

1.49

1.50

9.93

10.14%

Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00

362,959,275

63,880,832,400

221,900

-0.56%

14.44

10.00

12.19

5.68%

Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

287,077,133

57,989,580,866

38,900

1.00%

19.75

11.00

10.23

5.45%

The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00

3,492,369,900

40,162,253,850

328,600

0.44%

1.53

0.40

7.52

3.48%

Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00

2,950,259,818

75,231,625,359

454,200

0.00%

3.72

1.85

6.85

7.25%

KenGen Co. Ltd Ord. 2.50

2,198,361,456

18,246,400,085

413,000

-0.60%

0.94

0.50

8.83

6.02%

British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00

100,000,000

41,200,000,000

1,100

-0.48%

30.98

30.50

13.30

7.40%

Nation Media Group Ltd Ord. 2.50

157,118,572

32,209,307,260

49,400

0.49%

12.70

8.00

16.14

3.90%

CFC Stanbic of Kenya Holdings Ltd ord.5.00

273,684,211

13,136,842,128

2,100

0.00%

5.99

0.00

8.01

0.00%

Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00

461,615,483

6,001,001,279

64,000

0.00%

3.58

0.25

3.63

1.92%

1,530,000,000

9,715,500,000

1,471,900

-0.78%

1.26

0.50

5.04

7.87%

Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00

163,037,108

16,303,710,800

8,200

0.00%

13.58

1.70

7.36

1.70%

Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50

633,024,000

11,046,268,800

1,240,700

0.29%

2.16

0.45

8.08

2.58%

99,055,000

20,405,330,000

3,200

0.49%

11.63

2.00

17.71

0.97%

358,997,784

11,846,926,872

21,900

0.76%

6.72

0.50

4.91

1.52%

912,073,331,294

7,938,500

0.34%

8.17

4.40

9.80

4.44%

East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00

Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00

Athi River Mining Ord 5.00

NIC Bank Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS MID CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50

604,947,068

6,956,891,282

51,000

0.00%

1.79

0.00

6.42

0.00%

KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05

1,471,761,200

21,782,065,760

52,000

0.00%

2.21

1.00

6.70

6.76%

Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00

284,789,128

16,375,374,860

112,100

1.77%

2.55

0.70

22.55

1.22%

National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

280,000,000

5,250,000,000

454,200

0.81%

3.19

0.40

5.88

2.13%

90,000,000

4,590,000,000

0.00%

6.24

0.50

8.17

0.98%

148,210,640

5,928,425,600

1,400

0.00%

4.51

1.30

8.87

3.25%

54,450,000

9,147,600,000

5,100

1.82%

33.00

4.50

5.09

2.68%

CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50

582,709,440

7,866,577,440

0.00%

-0.31

0.00

-43.55

0.00%

Kenya Re Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50

600,000,000

6,600,000,000

102,100

0.92%

3.19

0.35

3.45

3.18%

Housing Finance Co.Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

235,750,000

3,430,162,500

60,300

-1.02%

2.70

1.20

5.39

8.25%

Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

175,028,706

2,835,465,037

13,400

-3.57%

3.05

0.00

5.31

0.00%

Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00

33,980,265

4,077,631,800

0.00%

8.89

5.00

13.50

4.17%

Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

96,000,000

3,648,000,000

1,300

2.01%

2.31

1.00

16.45

2.63%

E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50

253,125,000

2,594,531,250

44,100

0.00%

1.15

1.00

8.91

9.76%

AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00

208,084,296

957,187,762

22,700

-1.08%

0.53

0.00

8.68

0.00%

74,059,026

1,758,901,868

2,000

0.00%

2.96

0.00

8.02

0.00%

2,150,000,000

12,577,500,000

127,500

-2.50%

-1.09

0.15

-5.37

2.56%

Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00

265,424,636

4,021,183,235

15,900

-0.33%

1.47

0.00

10.31

0.00%

Trans-Century Ltd Ord 0.50 AIMS

273,950,284

6,780,269,529

3,300

6.45%

1.23

0.25

20.12

1.01%

CFC Insurance Holdings Ltd ord.1.00

515,270,364

3,787,237,175

100

-1.34%

1.84

0.00

3.99

0.00%

Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00

228,055,500

2,599,832,700

8,800

0.00%

1.72

1.00

6.63

8.77%

19,525,446

1,991,595,492

500

0.99%

7.71

6.80

13.23

6.67%

135,556,433,290

1,077,800

0.27%

4.13

1.14

6.31

2.91%

E.A.Portland Cement Co. Ltd Ord 5.00

TPS Eastern Africa Ltd Ord 1.00
Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00

British-American Investments Co (Kenya) Ltd Ord 0.10

B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS SMALL CAP MARKET SEGMENT

278,342,393

1,029,866,854

36,000

-1.33%

0.35

0.20

10.57

5.41%

Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00

8,756,320

1,970,172,000

0.00%

93.74

57.50

2.40

25.56%

Kakuzi Ltd Ord.5.00

19,599,999

1,469,999,925

0.00%

28.06

3.75

2.67

5.00%

Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00

60,000,000

987,000,000

16,000

-0.30%

7.79

1.10

2.11

6.69%

Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00

22,279,616

512,431,168

0.00%

7.78

0.55

2.96

2.39%

Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00

75,708,873

969,073,574

600

0.79%

3.57

0.75

3.59

5.86%

Crown Paints Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

23,727,000

854,172,000

6,100

0.00%

5.44

1.25

6.62

3.47%

Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00

210,000,000

388,500,000

21,900

0.00%

-0.59

-3.14

0.00%

Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 AIMS

16,078,500

876,278,250

1,100

-0.91%

1.36

1.25

40.07

2.29%

City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

5,728,314

1,661,211,060

51,000

0.00%

6.12

4.00

47.39

1.38%

58,500,000
3,912,000
2,179,615,440

1,041,300,000
508,560,000
8,391,519,444

200
0
2,173,600

-3.65%
0.00%
-1.28%

2.33
19.93
0.27

1.50
7.50
0.09

7.36
6.52
14.26

8.75%
5.77%
2.34%

The Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 AIMS

1,200,000

540,000,000

0.00%

33.70

7.50

13.35

1.67%

Express Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

35,403,790

138,074,781

2,300

-6.02%

-6.47

-0.60

0.00%

Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

40,000,000

142,000,000

200

9.23%

0.38

0.10

9.34

2.82%

Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00

14,393,106

172,717,272

0.00%

-11.80

-1.02

0.00%

Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

12,868,124

38,604,372
21,691,480,701

0
2,309,000

0.00%
-0.19%

0.04
10.67

4.84

75.00
13.30

0.00%
4.41%

Longhorn Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 AIMS

Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 AIMS
CIC Insurance Group Ltd ord.1.00

Daily Market Note

Contacts
Report By: Moses Waireri,Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: mwaireri@genghis-capital.com
Report By: Evelyne Wanjiku, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: ewanjiku@genghis-capital.com
Anthony Kimani, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: akimani@genghis-capital.com
Kelvin Nyabando, Research Analyst | Tel:+25420 2774781 | Email: knyabando@genghis-capital.com
George Guy,Fixed Income Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774756| Mob: +254 727 142231 | Email: gguy@genghis-capital.com
Nyawira Waithaka, Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774777 | Mob: +254 723 693481 | Email: nwaithaka@genghis-capital.com
Andrew Maina, Senior Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774789 | Mob: +254 722 667936 | Email: amaina@genghis-capital.com
Disclaimer: The content provided on this document is provided as general information and does not constitute advice or recommendation by Genghis Capital
Ltd and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution recommending the
purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in the document are
solely the opinions of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made every effort to provide
accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied warranty of any kind as to
its correctness. You should consult your own independent financial adviser to obtain professional advice before exercising any decisions based on the
information present in this document. Any action that you take as a result of this information, analysis, or advertisement is ultimately your responsibility.

Genghis Capital Ltd, Prudential Assurance Building, Wabera Street, Nairobi.

Tel: +254 20 2774760Fax: +254 20 246334