POST-BIRTH PAINS Pakistan Day should normally remind us of the pains of the gigantic struggle th at went into the

creation of an ideal homeland. This task may well be left for t he attention of other sections of print media. We will do well to take a view of the post birth era from economic, social and political standpoints. Unfortunate ly, the country instead of developing into a welfare state has turned out to be a haven rather heaven for the pre-partition exploitative forces. Unlike India, w e failed at the outset to dispense with the feudal system. With the passage of t ime, the feudals became the nucleus of power and sucked into their orbit, the b ureaucrats, the top businessmen, the politicians and to some extent, the army Ge nerals. The media and the members of the elite society are the latest addition t o the cartel of exploitative forces. The masses were left alone to face the con sequences of the inept ways of governance of the members of the cartel who have an unwritten agreement to rule the country one by one. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INDICATORS Average (Annual) 1960s 04-05 05-06 GROTH RATES % 1970s 06-07 1980s 07-08 1990s 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04

(Constant factor cost) GDP 6.8 4.8 9 5.8 6.8 Agriculture 5.1 2.4 6.5 6.3 Manufacturing 9.9 14 15.5 8.7 Commodity Sector 4.3 9.2 9.5 Service Sector 6 5.9 8.5 6.5 GROTH RATES % (Current MP) Total Investment 10.7 14.4 32.6 N-Savings(as % of Inv) 123.1 108 91.5 AS % OF GDP (Current MP) Total Investment 16.9 16.6 19.1 National Savings 20.8 17.9 17.5 CPI (Growth%) Jul-Mar 3.1 4.6 9.3 FISCAL DATA As % of GDP (MP) Tax Revenue 11.0 10.1 NA 10.6 NA 10.2 13.8 10.1 13.4 10.7 10.6 10.9 11.5 NA 22.1 NA 18.2 3.2 7.9 17.1 22.9 11.2 17.8 12.5 7.8 18.7 21.6 14.8 13.9 7.2 10.3 18.3 13.8 9.7 17.4 15.8 3.6 17.2 16.5 4.4 16.8 18.6 3.5 NA 36.1 NA 82.3 21.8 18.3 67.5 77.7 4.2 13.1 22.6 64.5 8.1 57.6 10.2 91 8.6 95.8 3.2 110.7 6.5 5.8 2.4 3.7 5.5 8.2 6.8 5.1 6.3 7.6 4.6 5.4 1.5 8.2 5.4 3.9 6 6.7 8.2 3.9 4.4 4.8 6.5 3.2 4.6 2 6.1 1.5 4.6 4.8 3.1 -2.2 9.3 3 3.1 4.7 0.1 4.5 0.8 4.8 7.5 4.1 6.9 1.4 5.2

Non-tax Revenue NA 3.3 3.7 3.6 Total Revenue NA 14.3 13.8 14.2 Current Expenditure 16.3 13.5 13.3 Development Exp. 2.2 3.1 3.9 Total Expenditure 18.5 16.6 17.2 Overall Deficit 2.1 2.4 3.3 4.3 Social Sector Expenditure (% of GNP) Education 2.1 1 Health NA 0.6 0.5 NA 1.9 0.6 0.6

NA 4.7 NA 14.9 NA 13.6 NA 4.8 NA 18.4 5.3 4.3

3.5 4.6 17.3 14.7 NA 14.9 NA 4.9 NA 19.8 7.1 5.5

3.7 17.1 17.6 17.5 7.3 3.8 24.9 21.3 6.9

2.8 13.5 19.4 4.7 24.1 5.4

2.7 13.3 16.5 2.5 19 4.3

3.3 14.2 15.5 2.1 17.6 4.3

3.4 14.9 15.9 2.8 18.7 3.7

NA 2.4 0.8 0.6

0.8 2.3 0.7

2.3 0.7

2.1 0.7

1.6 0.7

1.9 0.7

1.7 0.6

These members have their own groups within the cartel that keep on clashing with each other to safeguard their group interests. The infighting of groups essenti ally entails huge loss to the economy as investment and business activities are put on hold. During 2008, these groups joined hands to work up a rebellion again st the then ruling group. The result was a huge economic cost that was, as usual , passed on to the country and the masses. The economy had performed well during the nine-year tenure of the deposed government. But the uncalled-for clash of t he vested interests pushed the country twenty years back. The recent showdown be tween the two major democratic groups who played allies for a period of time pus hed the country to the brink of disaster. Those leading the fight never thought of the precarious situation the country was already in. Thanks to the saner elem ents, the issue was resolved amicably, at least for the time being. But the epis ode has given rise to some serious questions that are boggling the minds of the silent majority who is sincere with the country ( although it has no say in co untry s affairs). These questions are : Is street agitation the right way to get demands accepted? Have the major democratic groups of this country learned any lessons from their past acts of ineptitude? Why the larger province so swiftly succeeded in having its way, while smaller provinces were invariably subjected to army /ranger /police actions whenever the y came up with their demands? What is the tolerance limit of our opposition groups for the ruling democratic s etups? On the economic front, the country has had a checkered history. We performed in bits and pieces. The policy and implementation gap never narrowed down. We never huddled together to set out our economic priorities. The figures mentioned in t he table are tell-tale signs. The country has been ruled intermittently by the democratic and army groups. The economic growth data when segregated on this ba sis, will definitely reveal some interesting facts. Putting the task of such an analysis aside for the time being, we concentrate on the structure of our econom y. Our bread-earner sector is agriculture. The statistics suggest that the poten tial of this sector was never explored, and if explored, never placed on policy anvil. Is it not unfortunate that a sector capable of yielding a growth rate of 7 per cent, just eked out a meager 1.5 per cent during the last fiscal? We were often seen caught in the confusion of sector priority. For a number of years, we gave priority to manufacturing sector over agriculture sector. Then, opting for consumption-led growth, we shifted our entire focus on service sector. The rece

nt global economic events have amply proved that we must give priority to our ag riculture sector without shifting focus from other sectors. All three major sect ors of the economy should grow simultaneously and unobtrusively. The social sect or has always remained under the scanner of the ruling elites, be it a democrati c setup or an autocratic army rule. The minimal allocations to these sectors ove r a number of decades prove that rooting out the feudals at the time of the cre ation of this country was the surest way to prevent post birth pains that have enveloped the lives of the masses. SHAMSUL GHANI