September

4, 2012
MEMORANDUM

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FR: DAVID FLAHERTY

MAGELLAN STRATEGIES
RE: NEW JERSEY US SENATE GENREAL ELECTION SURVEY TOPLINE RESULTS
________________________________________________________________________________________________
Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the topline results of a 746n autodial
survey of likely general election voters in the state of New Jersey. The interviews
were conducted August 30th and September 3rd, 2012. This survey has a margin of
error of +/ 3.59% at the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted
based upon past general election voter turnout demographics. The survey was
commissioned by Kyrillos for Senate.
T1. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent voter?

Republican.................................................................................... 26%
Democrat ...................................................................................... 39%
Independent ................................................................................ 35%

T2. How likely are you to vote in the upcoming election this November?

Extremely likely ......................................................................... 90%
Very likely ........................................................................................ 6%
Somewhat likely............................................................................ 4%

Magellan ID# NJSEN083012 New Jersey US Senate Survey Topline Results

Field Dates: 8/30/12 9/3/12, MoE +/ 3.59%, 746n

Page 2 of 4

T3. How interested would you say you are in the November election? Rating your
interest on a scale of 1 to 9, with 9 meaning you are extremely interested, and 1
meaning you have no interest in the election, press a number between 1 and 9 that
best describes your interest in the November election.

9 ........................................................................................................ 70%
8 ........................................................................................................... 8%
7 ........................................................................................................... 7%
6 ........................................................................................................... 2%
5 ........................................................................................................... 4%
4 ........................................................................................................... 1%
3 ........................................................................................................... 1%
2 ........................................................................................................... 2%
1 ........................................................................................................... 5%

Mean: 8.11
T4. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bob Menendez?

Favorable ...................................................................................... 31%
Unfavorable ................................................................................. 37%
No opinion .................................................................................... 27%

Name ID ......................................................................................... 95%
Hard Name ID ............................................................................. 68%
Never heard of ............................................................................... 5%

T5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joe Kyrillos?

Favorable ...................................................................................... 21%
Unfavorable ................................................................................. 18%
No opinion .................................................................................... 31%

Name ID ......................................................................................... 70%
Hard Name ID ............................................................................. 39%
Never heard of ............................................................................ 30%

T6. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bob Menendez is doing as United States
Senator?

Approve ......................................................................................... 34%
Disapprove ................................................................................... 37%
Unsure/No opinion .................................................................. 29%

Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Ste 300 | Louisville, CO 80027

www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 8618585

Magellan ID# NJSEN083012 New Jersey US Senate Survey Topline Results

Field Dates: 8/30/12 9/3/12, MoE +/ 3.59%, 746n

Page 3 of 4

T7. If the election for the United States Senate were being held today, for whom
would you vote if the candidates were Bob Menendez, Democrat or Joe Kyrillos,
Republican?

Bob Menendez ............................................................................ 45%
Joe Kyrillos ................................................................................... 41%
Undecided ..................................................................................... 14%

Definitely Bob Menendez ....................................................... 34%
Probably Bob Menendez ........................................................ 11%

Definitely Joe Kyrillos .............................................................. 29%
Probably Joe Kyrillos ............................................................... 12%

T8. On most political issues, do you consider yourself to be conservative, moderate
or liberal?

Conservative ................................................................................ 27%
Moderate ....................................................................................... 51%
Liberal ............................................................................................ 16%
Unsure/No opinion ..................................................................... 6%

T9. Who did you vote for in the 2008 Presidential election?

Barack Obama ............................................................................. 57%
John McCain ................................................................................. 37%
Another candidate/Do not remember ................................ 4%
Did not vote .................................................................................... 1%
Unsure/No opinion ..................................................................... 1%

T10. For statistical purposes, are you a man or a woman?

Female ............................................................................................ 56%
Male ................................................................................................. 44%

T11. Which of the following age groups applies to you?

1834............................................................................................... 15%
3544............................................................................................... 15%
4554............................................................................................... 23%
5564............................................................................................... 22%
65+ ................................................................................................... 25%

Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Ste 300 | Louisville, CO 80027

www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 8618585

Magellan ID# NJSEN083012 New Jersey US Senate Survey Topline Results

Field Dates: 8/30/12 9/3/12, MoE +/ 3.59%, 746n

Page 4 of 4

T12. For statistical purposes only, what is your race? Press 1 if you are white, press
2 if you are Hispanic or Latino, press 3 if you are black or African American, press 4
if you belong to another ethnic group.

White .............................................................................................. 71%
Black/African American ......................................................... 12%
Hispanic/Latino ......................................................................... 11%
Another ethnic group ................................................................. 6%

Survey Methodology
This survey was conducted using automated telephone touch tone technology. The
sample used for this survey was randomly drawn from a New Jersey voter file. The
survey response data was weighted based upon voting demographics from past
New Jersey general election cycles. The 746 interviews were conducted on August
30th and September 3rd, 2012. Three attempts were made to interview each
household in the sample. This survey has a margin of error of 3.59% at the 95
percent confidence interval.

Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Ste 300 | Louisville, CO 80027

www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 8618585