Scribd Logo
Fazer o upload

Bem-vindo(a) ao Scribd!

  • DP Australian Outlook

    Enviado por

    DanStein
    19 visualizações3 páginas
    - The K2 Australian Fund increased its net long exposure to over 95% as markets weakened over the past 2 weeks. Issues that caused weakness are being addressed and markets should stabilize. - Speculators drove up bond yields for Greece and Spain but the ECB and IMF have introduced measures to stabilize prices. The focus is now on economic recovery and debt repayment. - The proposed Resource Super Profit Tax rate on mining companies is seen as reasonable but the cost of capital measure is too low. An agreement is expected soon to alleviate market concerns about resource development being curtailed.

    Descrição original:

    Direitos autorais

    © Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

    Formatos disponíveis

    PDF, TXT ou leia online no Scribd

    Você considera este documento útil?

    Este conteúdo é inapropriado?

    Denunciar este documento
    - The K2 Australian Fund increased its net long exposure to over 95% as markets weakened over the past 2 weeks. Issues that caused weakness are being addressed and markets should stabilize. - Speculators drove up bond yields for Greece and Spain but the ECB and IMF have introduced measures to stabilize prices. The focus is now on economic recovery and debt repayment. - The proposed Resource Super Profit Tax rate on mining companies is seen as reasonable but the cost of capital measure is too low. An agreement is expected soon to alleviate market concerns about resource development being curtailed.

    Direitos autorais:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Baixe no formato PDF, TXT ou leia online no Scribd
    Sinalizar o conteúdo como inadequado
    19 visualizações3 páginas

    DP Australian Outlook

    Enviado por

    DanStein
    - The K2 Australian Fund increased its net long exposure to over 95% as markets weakened over the past 2 weeks. Issues that caused weakness are being addressed and markets should stabilize. - Speculators drove up bond yields for Greece and Spain but the ECB and IMF have introduced measures to stabilize prices. The focus is now on economic recovery and debt repayment. - The proposed Resource Super Profit Tax rate on mining companies is seen as reasonable but the cost of capital measure is too low. An agreement is expected soon to alleviate market concerns about resource development being curtailed.

    Direitos autorais:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Baixe no formato PDF, TXT ou leia online no Scribd
    Sinalizar o conteúdo como inadequado
    de 3

    K2AustralianMarketOutlook

    Overthepast2weeksasmarketshaveweakenedwehaveliftedexposuretoover95% netlongintheK2AustralianFund.Anumberofissueswhichhavecausedweaknessand volatilityhavebeenaddressedandequitymarketsshouldstabilise.

    Europe
    TherehasbeenaspeculativeattackonthehighindebtedEuropeannations. SpeculatorshaveboldlymovedfromtheopaqueCreditDefaultSwapmarket intothe10yrbondarena.Within4weekstheyhaddriven10yrbondyieldsin Greeceup590bsptsto12.40%andSpainby65bsptsto4.45%.Inresponse totheattack,theECBandtheIMFhaveintroducedanumberofmeasuresto stabilizeprices.Withinhoursthe10yrbondshadrecoveredmuchofthelosses. Itsnotdifficulttoseethelogicinthespeculativebehaviour;GreeceandSpainhave unemploymentratesof10.3%and20.1%respectively.Inaddition,Governmentdebt burdensarehighat120%ofGDPforGreeceand60%forSpain.Asaresultthe predatoryresponsewastopushsovereignCDSmarginstothelimitandthenshort equitiesandbondsaggressivelyandbuygold. NowthattheECBandIMFhavetakenaction,thelong,drawnoutprocessof economicrecoveryandsubsequentdebtretirementtakespriority.Prettyboringstuff. Whoknows,wemightevenseesomegoldsalestocoverpendinginterestpayments

    ResourceSuperProfitTax(RSPT)andChina
    EarlythismonththeRuddgovernmentfinallydisclosedsomeoftherecommendations fromtheHenryTaxationReview.TheRSPThasbeenimplementedtotakeadvantageof higherbulkcommodityprices.Whilstthetaxationchangeloomed,BHPandRIOsshare priceshavefallen15%and19%respectively. Ataxrateontherealisedvalueofresourcedeposits,measuredasthedifference betweenrevenuesgeneratedfromresourceextractionandassociatedcosts,makes sensetous.But,theproposedcostofcapitalatthe10yrbondyieldistoolow.Arateof say8%to10%wouldbeamoreequitableoutcome.Webelievethatthegovernment andindustrywillcometoanagreedoutcomeinthenottodistantfuture.Thisshould dispelsomeoftheconcernsinthemarketthatallfutureresourcedevelopment activitieswillbecurtailedandAustraliasexportpotentialwillbecompromised. Chinaseconomicvirtuescontinuetobequestioned.Recentinflationdata remainsrelativelybenign,howeverwefeelthatupwardpressurewillprevail.Specific measurestocurbpropertypricesatthepremiumendofthemarketarebeing

    implemented.Downpaymentsofatleast50%arenowneededfor2ndhomepurchases andthemortgagerateapplicablemustbeinexcessof1.1x theprimerate.Despitethesemeasures,Chinesesteelproductioncontinuesto expand.InApril2010Chinaproducedmorethan55mtonnesofsteel;27%higherthan lastyear.ExcessironorestockpilesatChineseportshavenowbeenutilisedandsteel exportsaregrowingagain.Asaresult,freightratesshouldstarttomovehigherandthis hastraditionallysignaledbettermarketconditionsforresourcecompanies. Wefeelthatmanymarketparticipantshavebeensidelinedbyanimminentrisein Chinasinterestrate.However,oncethisoccurs,theonlyoutstanding issuewillbethetimingoftherevaluationoftheRemnimbi.Accordingly,wefeel thatconfidencetowardsChineseeconomicsustainabilitywillgraduallygain momentum.

    AustralianBanks
    WehavenoticedthatCDSmarginsforAustralianbanksarebackatlevelslast seeninMay2009.WesimplycantunderstandwhyspeculatorsbelievethatAustralian bankshavethesameprobabilityofbankruptcytodaycomparedtoconditionsnearthe pinnacleofthecreditcrisis.Australianpropertypricesareclearlytoohighbutwedonot believethatsuddendeclinesareimminent.Wefeelthatamorelikelyoutcomeisthat pricesremainflatforupto5yearsuntilsuchtimethatwagegrowthgetsto6xproperty value.GiventhatAustraliangovernmentdebtshouldpeakat6%ofGDP,andtaxcuts aredueshortlyforindividualsandcorporates,wearecomfortablethatthe unemploymentratewillpeakbelow6%thiscycle.ThatensuresthattheAustralian bankingbaddebtcyclehaspasseditspeak. WebelievethatAustralianbanksareonthecuspofenjoyingbetterfunding opportunities.Weseeverylimitedgrowthinhomelendinghoweverwebelieve thatbusinesslendinggrowthwillrecommenceshortly.Accordingly,system lendinggrowthwillslowandfundingneedswillreduce.Inaddition,theBudget hasencouragedfurthersavingsbyintroducinga50%taxdiscountonthefirst $1000oninterestincome.Thisshouldensurethattermdepositratesdroptoa morenormallevelof50bsptsbelowthecashrateinsteadofthecurrent150bspts above. WeareencouragedthatNABhasa2011dividendyieldof6.65%.Thiscompares favourablytodividendyieldsofNationalBankofGreeceat6.05%andSpainsleading bank,Santander7.01%. Withbestwishes, DavidPoppenbeek HeadofAustralianStrategy K2AssetManagement


    TheinformationcontainedinthispresentationisproducedbyK2AssetManagementLtd(K2)ingoodfaith,butdoes notconstituteanyrepresentationorofferbyK2.Itissubjecttochangewithoutnotice,andisintendedasgeneral informationonlyandisnotcompleteordefinitive.K2doesnotacceptanyresponsibility,anddisclaimsanyliability whatsoeverforlosscausedtoanypartybyrelianceontheinformationinthispresentation.Pleasenotethatpast performanceisnotaguaranteeoffutureperformance. Aproductdisclosurestatementorinformationmemorandumorforthefundsreferredtointhispresentationcanbe obtainedatwww.k2am.comorbycontactingK2.Youshouldconsidertheproductdisclosurestatementbefore makingadecisiontoacquireaninterestinthefund.

    Você também pode gostar