SEBs housing price indicator stable at positive levels

SMALL CHANGES IN THE SEBS HOUSING PRICE INDICATOR. The housing price indicator declined slightly to +11 in September from +18. The share of respondents believing in unchanged house prices was marginally lower at 24%, while the share expecting rising prices declined to 39% (cf. 43%) and the share expecting falling prices increased to 28% (cf. 25%).The housing price indicator has shown very small movements since the recovery in spring, although the decline in August means the indicator is now at the lowest level since March. STABLE HOUSING MARKET. SCB house price statistics data up until H1 2012 have shown a very gradual recovery since the through in the beginning of the year, but relative to 12 months ago prices are largely unchanged. Household lending growth has at the same time slowed down to 4.4%, which is around the longterm sustainable pace. The Riksbank September rate decision showed that the central bank has become less concerned about the risks from the housing market. This data should not change that view. CONTINUED OPTIMISTIC HOUSEHOLDS. The level of the housing price indicator has historically tracked the trend in household sentiment and the September reading suggest continued firm consumer confidence.

MONDAY 10 SEP, 2012

A POSITIVE RIKSBANK SURPRISE IN STORE. Plans to fix rates declined in September to 4%, the lowest level since February. The survey was conducted before the Riksbank September 6 rate announcement and respondents had consequently not had time to incorporate the 0.25%-points cut. According to the survey households expected the repo rate to remain unchanged at 1.5% in one years time (cf. 1.6%). We expect the Riksbank to cut the repo rate by another 25bps in December and keep it unchanged at 1.00% throughout next year. This indicates an upside risk for the housing price indicator going forward.
Elisabet Kopelman , +46 8 506 230 17

Since March 2003 weve contracted Demoskop to survey the Swedish housing market every month. This survey was conducted 28 aug-5 sept, 2012.

SEB's Housing Price Indicator

80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 11

Percentage of floating rate holders planning to fix rates within 3 months

25% 20% 15% 10% 5%

-60 -80
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: SEB, Demoskop

4% 0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: SEB, Demoskop

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