ADVANCES IN TSUNAMI NUMERICAL MODELING WITH EXAMPLES RELATED TO SAFETY OF NPPs

Ahmet Cevdet Yalciner* * Prof. Dr. Director, METU, Department off Civil Engineering, Ocean Engineering Research Center Tsunami is one of the most important marine hazards generally triggered by earthquakes and/or submarine/sub aerial landslides. In general, tsunami might affect not only the area where it is generated but also substantial distance away from generation region. Better understanding, wider awareness, proper preparedness and effective mitigation strategies for tsunamis need close interdisciplinary collaboration from science, engineering nd administration with exchange and enhancement of existing data, development and utilization of available computational tools. The tsunami numerical modeling is one of the essential components of tsunami hazard assessment in scientific and operational level. It is also very beneficial for better understanding, preparedness and development of proper mitigation measures for NPPs. There are several phases of proper tsunami modelling for the critical structures such as NPPs. Tsunami hazard assessment covers; catalogue and literature survey on the historical tsunamis, determination/development of bathymetry/topography data, Obtaining or developing the land use plan/map of NPP site in GIS, determination of the near and far field tsunami sources, computing the tsunami source parameters from generation mechanisms and estimated rupture, landslide, volcano and/or other long wave (swell, seiche or meteorological characteristics), performing test runs and applications to benchmark problems, determination of study domain(s) for modelling, simulations and computations of all necessary near shore and land tsunami parameters, inundation mapping, interpretation of the results with respect to impact parameters (such as water elevations, flow depth, current velocities, discharge fluxes and momentum), plotting, animations and visualizations from source to NPP site, developing data and specific information for the use of NPP authorities. The accuracy and quality of the tsunami numerical modelling needs to use of valid and verified numerical methods and computational tools simulating from generation towards propagation to coastal amplification, inundation and visualization with best accurate data of tsunami source, bathymetry and topography in sufficient resolution covering the land use plans of the plant, and selection of possible or reliable tsunami scenarios at deterministic and probabilistic level. There are different types of long waves (such as seiche, swell, tide, strong storms, wind and wave setup, waves generated by large scale atmospheric pressure differences) which may be combined with the coastal hydrodynamics during tsunami. Tsunami numerical modelling is generally based on solution of nonlinear form of the shallow water equations with friction term. The initial sea state (the source) is one of the main inputs which is computed according to the characteristics of the triggering mechanism. Even if the seismic parameters (rupture characteristics) are one of the main inputs to compute the tsunami source, the other types of long waves generated by different mechanisms should also be taken into account as the input of sources. The long or short term changes of water level in the study region may cause the difference and excess amplification of tsunamis at the coastal zone in addition to the morphological 7

conditions at site. Excess amplification of pressure at the intake location can cause additional flux through intake pipe and additional damage at the intake and cooling system. Safety and stability of coastal protection and utilization structures of NPPs should also be ensured by proper design and construction methods due to the outputs of tsunami numerical modeling. The resonance of the basins or bays where the NPP site is facing may be another amplification factor of long waves. In this paper, the assumptions and approximations behind the tsunami numerical modeling are summarized. The main terms (nonlinearity, friction and dispersion) of the governing equations, their importance and effects on the results of modeling are presented with examples. The necessary tsunami parameters produced from tsunami numerical models for the safety assessment and protective measures are are given. The importance of the benchmarking and sample benchmark problems for the testing, validation and verification of the models are evaluated in regard to the applications to critical structures. Recent advances in tsunami numerical modelling, future recommendations and necessary issues for further investigations are also presented with discussions.