GDP Projections From PWC - How China, India and Brazil Will Overtake The West by 2050 - News - Guardian - Co.uk

GDP projections from PwC: how China, India and Brazil will overtake the West by 2050 | News
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8/28/12 12:41 AM
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GDP projections from PwC: how China, India and Brazil will overtake the West by 2050
GDP projections from consultancy PwC show how the US, UK and the west will fall far behind the new economic powers like China in GDP by 2050. See what the data says Get the data
GDP projections to 2050: how the rankings change. Click image for graphic. Illustration: Jenny Ridley for the Guardian
What will the world look like in 2050? For a number of years, the economists at PwC have been charting the rise of the big emerging countries and seeking to calculate the moment when the G7 industrial nations will be surpassed by an E7 (E for Emerging) of China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey. To do this, they used World Bank data for growth up until 2009, PwC's short-term projections for the years up until 2014 and their long-term growth assumptions for 2015 to 2050, which rely on assumptions about population growth, increases in human and physical capital, and the rate at which poorer countries can catch up with the more advanced technologies used in developed nations. Inevitably, the results of the study involve guess work, however well-informed. But the trends appear to be clear; the emerging nations have grown far more rapidly than their counterparts in the west and will continue to do so.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2011/jan/07/gdp-projections-china-us-uk-brazil
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GDP projections from PwC: how China, India and Brazil will overtake the West by 2050 | News | guardian.co.uk
8/28/12 12:41 AM
At present, nine out of the ten biggest economies in the world when measured by market exchange rates are developed nations; by 2050, according to PwC, that number will be down to just four - the US at number two behind China, Japan at 5, Germany at 8 and the UK at 9. PwC also make comparisons using purchasing power parities - which take account of different price levels between countries. Using this yardstick, the eclipse of the west happens more quickly, although the broad trends are similar, with the US falling to third behind China and India by 2050 and the UK in 10th place, one place below Indonesia. Thanks to PwC the key data is below. What can you do with it?
Data summary
GDP projections
Country US China India Japan Russia Brazil UK Germany France Italy Spain Canada Australia Korea Mexico Indonesia Turkey S.Arabia Argentina S. Africa Vietnam Nigeria G7 E7 EU G20 World Click heading to sort. GDP at PPPs (constant 2009 international dollars), $bn. Download this data 2011 15,051.17 10,656.45 4,412.91 4,322.31 2,948.64 2,265.08 2,338.80 3,108.00 2,235.54 1,962.14 1,495.61 1,362.20 915.74 1,461.43 1,664.27 1,087.50 1,153.42 642.80 649.47 542.67 294.67 376.98 30,380.16 24,188.27 15,241.13 64,377.19 78,579.03 2025 21,010.83 25,501.22 10,721.09 5,535.43 4,635.98 3,950.27 3,208.02 3,834.14 3,046.22 2,557.97 2,036.10 1,892.54 1,338.51 2,209.98 2,919.09 2,112.14 2,109.23 1,205.75 1,089.50 859.78 841.08 894.29 41,085.15 51,949.02 20,384.67 107,476.02 131,185.61 2050 38,060.89 57,784.54 41,373.68 7,641.40 7,422.46 9,771.54 5,616.50 5,629.18 5,339.13 3,805.81 3,198.53 3,348.14 2,480.00 3,261.50 6,637.80 5,787.83 5,303.16 3,085.06 2,546.93 2,307.57 3,909.71 4,478.40 69,441.05 134,081.00 33,084.15 229,896.64 280,612.66
Source: PwC main scenario model projections for 2010-50
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pjplayer 7 January 2011 12:26AM Soooo, projections from consultancy PwC. Larry, larry, larry. Projections from consultancy PwC.
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This may be comfort food for you, Larry, but do you honestly think that in 2050 we'll all be like, "yo, that PwC projection in 2011 was spot on, we really should've taken notice." Have you even read confessions of an economic hit man? Do you not realise how irrelevant this sort of thing is. Or do you realise it but, hack-like, have to publish something? My projection for 2050: Larry Elliot will be dead, everything else will be a footnote. kvlx387 7 January 2011 12:35AM I think using PPP as the method of comparing the performance of economies in the long term is flawed - as economies become more affluent, the PPP exchange rate moves towards the actual exchange rate. Thus the chart is flattering to economies such as India and Indonesia. mikemath 7 January 2011 2:40AM Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is flooding into big emerging markets such as Brazil, India and China. abh3092 7 January 2011 3:21AM KVLX387 dude even in exchange rates india is projected to take over USA chechazzo 7 January 2011 3:34AM This looks very, very flawed. There seems to be very little appreciation of what actually drives changes in economic growth rates over time. As countries get richer, they grow at a slower rate. 5.9% for an economy the size of China's over 41 years is ridiculous. It's clear that this was not compiled by bona fide economists, but is more of a self-fulfilling marketing ploy, much like Goldman's infamous BRICS. Another issue is that if you look at where those countries were over the last 20 years, you will see that the actual rankings of countries show a huge resistance to change. You will not see a change in the world order without a huge cataclysm, ie war. The Chinese know that, and so do the Americans. I cannot for the life of me think why the likes of PWC and Goldman think it's responsible to be pitching China, a country that is dangerously irrational on civil rights, and that is Recommend (2) Responses (0) Report Share Recommend (5) Responses (0) Report Share Recommend (7) Responses (0) Report Share
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arming itself to the teeth. There is a clear disconnect between industry and markets on the one side and the geopolitical situation on the other. When will PWC, Goldman etc wake up to the simple fact that they are hugely underestimating medium term geopolitical risk around China's growth, from both internal and external factors? chechazzo 7 January 2011 3:43AM In any case PWC is not as influential, and markets are not stupid, they just have a lot of people with invested positions in the status quo, and cannot deal with the prospect of huge changes. There is huge overpricing of China, huge underpricing of geopolitical risk, just wait until China rattles the cage using its proxy, North Korea, or asserts itself over Taiwan. The extent and pace of China's militarisation is unparalleled since Germany prior to WW2, and they will gain more confidence and more belligerence over the next few years. Expect to see a lot more market volatility, a lot of scaled down FDI, disinvestment in Chinese production, and China getting bad press and consumer boycotts in the West. I will start a blog on this once I get the time. This PWC-Goldman ilk of stupidity and short-sightedness riles me. ourben 7 January 2011 3:48AM I hate you rain on your parade; but China has already "taken over" the west if you consider national debt, which you should, in your calculations. eurofederal 7 January 2011 5:51AM well, well,.... It seems that the EU will still be a loose Union of states then.....:) As for the projections, hmmmm : So the UK would overtake both Germany and France, hmmmm Let's see what happens in 40 years' time . Beamengine 7 January 2011 5:55AM Mexico - borderline failed state? Nigeria - really gonna survive running out of oil? Is there really much political analysis in this? Recommend (3) Recommend (11) Responses (0) Report Share Recommend (6) Responses (0) Report Share
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SublimeOblivion 7 January 2011 6:09AM (1) This all assumes that hi-tech industrialism continues to thrive by 2050 or even 2030, which is questionable given the scale of our resource and climate change challenges. (2) China's real GDP is even today likely underestimated and equal to US. Regardless, within 30 years it's economy will not only be well ahead, but bigger by a factor of 2x or 3x. (3) Both Russia's and Canada's GDP's will be well higher than they are because the opening of the Arctic (thanks to global warming) will allow far denser population and industrial concentration along the new Northern Rimlands. (4) Likewise, I don't see countries like Mexico or Indonesia developing as rapidly, because they're at the center of the climate crisis, but unlike South Africa or Saudi Arabia, don't have vast natural resources to compensate, nor like China do they have hitech and very competitive industrial bases that could provide foreign currency earnings. jmbonnett 7 January 2011 7:00AM The projected list looked a little fishy to me, so I went to Wikipedia and looked up list of countries by population. If you strip out countries which currently show little sign of developing, partly through wars or unfavourable regimes you get a fairly familiar list. So the main takeaway appears to be that in the future there will be a state of affairs where a country will plateau in economic development, for these countries, the sole criteria of GDP will be population. Now of course this does make some sense, but to me it stresses this point: GDP per capita is by far the most important measure, total GDP says nothing you won't learn from simply looking at a list of countries sorted by population. We know now that although China is 2nd to the USA in total GDP, its GDP per capita is only 93rd in the world (IMF, 2010). The much more interesting question is how this will evolve over the next 40 years. Something PwC are sadly silent on. redindian87 7 January 2011 8:12AM Who cares about 2050? Useless economists and their projections. What will happen in 2050 will happen. Surely economists would do better to stop guesswork and start looking for ways to get out of the financial crisis.
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BlueLotus85 7 January 2011 9:11AM Based on the extraordinary growth of the Japanese economy during the seventies they predicted that Japans economy will surpass US economy by early 21st century. Well according to all current indicators it is not going to take place in any near future . The economists cant predict what is is going to happen in 1011 , why should I trust its 1050 prediction. But one thing s beyond doubt that in this globalised world a industrial revolution in the western world is unlikely and they have to cut back on their profligate ways in order to cope with this increased competitive environment.
abc123456 7 January 2011 10:47AM SublimeOblivion (2) China's real GDP is even today likely underestimated and equal to US. Regardless, within 30 years it's economy will not only be well ahead, but bigger by a factor of 2x or 3x. Why do you think this? It's probably more likely to be underestimated, in my view. Chinese officials have a notorious tendency to inflate GDP figures, as even Vice Premier Li Keqiang (currently visiting Europe) admitted, according to Wikileaks cables. If GDP statistics at local and provincial levels are likely to be overestimates, as they almost certainly are, then surely national GDP statistics are also likely to be over the top.. abc123456 7 January 2011 10:50AM These statistics don't seem that gloomy from a UK perspective. The UK is a small country with a small population. Looking at UK GDP compared to a comparable country like Germany, it looks like the UK is actually predicted to make a slight relative increase, though Germany will still be slightly ahead in 2050. iamid 7 January 2011 11:45AM Translating this into GDP per capita would be more interesting. As would looking at where the product goes i.e. showing to what extent do the populace benefit, as opposed to the money going to service debt or to a small elite. I'm not going to go and do that mash up for you, sorry, but maybe someone will.
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qualitystreet 7 January 2011 1:43PM The message for the UK is to begin targeting those countries with the highest projected growth with goods and services. The UK is in a good positron to do this, it could lead for an export led boom for Britain if played right. The UK should be targeting the following markets: China, India, Brazil, Turkey, and Indonesia. TheNetworkGuy 7 January 2011 1:56PM Forty years is an awful long time to try to make these kind of predictions. Did we have any idea in 1970 what the world would look like today? I don't think so. Did people in 1910 have any idea of what the world would look like in 1950? I don't think so. Vietnam at 14th but Thailand and Taiwan don't even get on the list? I don't think so. Thomkickass 7 January 2011 5:13PM Probably I could throw some trust on the figures of China,India and Brazil. But when I looked at Indonesia, I laugh out loudly. StonedeCroze 7 January 2011 6:29PM What kind of analysis is this? The Uk will loose out because it doesn't capitalise on the BRIC countries unlike Germany does and therefore falls fom 7th to 10th. While role model Germany falls fom 5th to 9th? Germany whose GDP is now 32.2% ahead of the UK's and in 2050 will be ahead by only 1,4% - because of its superior economic strategy? If that is what economy experts come up with than it's small wonder the markets mess up... lordcjr 7 January 2011 6:30PM ECONOMIC GROWTH 2009-2050 If instead of comparing GDP you compare GDP per head of population you obtain a strikingly less alarming result. Using this comparison USA tops the list, UK #2, Germany #3, France #4, Italy #5 & Russia #6. China & India are way down the ranking as of 2009.
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By 2050, given projected population increases in each country, we have USA #1, UK #2, Germany #3, France #4, Russia #5, Italy #6, China #7, Brazil #8, Japan #9, Mexico #10, & India #11. Personally I couldn't care less what a nation's GDP is, its the mean GDP generated per head of population that matters, because it reflects standard of living. The PPP ranking accounts for RPI inflation I assume. In 2009 the UK average purchasing power is ~90% that of a USA citizen. By 2050 it will be ~85%. Hardly a significant change in standard of living, and both nations still top dogs in that respect. SublimeOblivion 7 January 2011 6:55PM @abc123456 There are several reasons why I don't think China's statistics are being manipulated. (1) Read this. (2) Physical production statistics, in which China produces more or far more in almost all categories than the US (e.g. according to the latest data us now makes almost twice as many cars, etc). And it's steel production is higher by a factor of 4x-5x. Statistics like Internet penetration and manufacturing wages suggest China is far closer in per capita terms to countries like Mexico or Brazil - which would make its total GDP similar to that of the US - rather than where's it's at now. (3) The memory of China's real GDP being downwards adjusted by 40% several years ago by the IMF and World Bank. Had it not been, it would already equal that of the US. IzzyWright 7 January 2011 8:52PM Anyway, by 2050 the EU will have moved on to be part of a North Atlantic Federation with a larger GDP than China or India.The UK and Turkey may or may not be part of this truly Big Society. StonedeCroze 7 January 2011 11:17PM lordcjr I agree that using GDP per head gives a much more accurate picture than GDP per country. Still, even these figures are flawed when used as an indicator for the economic state of the population as it doesn't take the vast income disparities into account that exist in many countries, especially in the developing nations and among the OECD the USA stands out.
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And if you want to talk about purchasing power it should be in relation not only to median (instead of average) income but to discretionary (instead of disposable) median income = the income a representative earner has left to spend after taxes, food, clothing, health, insurance, utilities, housing and education have been paid for. Unfortunately these are not the figures one is likely to find in any study. roborbob 7 January 2011 11:47PM As the world is getting more globalised, it's no longer matter which countries are doing better than the others. We are being forced to become more individualised. It's more matter with if you are the Alfa, Beta or Gamma individual wherever you live. I just came back from a holiday in thailand, I envy those thai middle class who could live a better comfortable live than their west counterparts, certainly no way near deficit middle class lifestyle. abc123456 8 January 2011 1:10AM SublimeOblivion Thanks very much for your reply and especially that link. Recommend (0) Responses (0) Report Share Recommend (1) Responses (0) Report Share
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