CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

Indian Telecom Industry An Overview :

The Indian telecommunication industry is the world's fastest growing industry with 826.93 million mobile phone subscribers as of April 2011. It is also the second largest telecommunication network in the world in terms of number of wireless connections after China. As the fastest growing telecommunications industry in the world, it is projected that India will have 1.159 billion mobile subscribers by 2013. Furthermore, projections by several leading global consultancies indicate that the total number of subscribers in India will exceed the total subscriber count in the China by 2013. The industry is expected to reach a size of 344,921 crore (US$76.92 billion) by 2012 at a growth rate of over 26 per cent, and generate employment opportunities for about 10 million people during the same period. According to analysts, the sector would create direct employment for 2.8 million people and for 7 million indirectly. In 2008-09 the overall telecom equipments revenue in India stood at 136,833 crore (US$30.51 billion) during the fiscal, as against 115,382 crore (US$25.73 billion) a year before. Figure 1.1. Group company wise Market Share as on 30/4/11

SOURCE: www.india-cellular.com 2

Figure 1.2. Cellular phone subscribers in India as on 30/04/11

SOURCE: www.india-cellular.com 3

Indian telecom sector: recent policies

National Long Distance Service (NLD) is opened for unrestricted entry. The International Long Distance Services (ILDS) have been opened to competition. The basic services are open to competition. In addition to the existing three, fourth cellular operator, one each in four metros and thirteen circles, has been permitted. The cellular operators have been permitted to provide all types of mobile services including voice and non-voice messages, data services and PCOs utilizing any type of network equipment, including circuit and/or package switches that meet certain required standards.

Policies allowing private participation have been announced as per the New Telecom Policy (NTP), 1999 in several new services, which include Global Mobile Personal Communication by Satellite (GMPCS) Service, digital Public Mobile Radio Trunked Service (PMRTS), Voice Mail/ Audiotex/ Unified Messaging Service.

Wireless in Local Loop (WLL) has been introduced for providing telephone connections in urban, semi-urban and rural areas promptly. Two telecom PSUs, VSNL and HTL have been disinvested. Steps are being taken to fulfill Universal Service Obligation (USO), its funding and administration. A decision to permit Mobile Community Phone Service has been announced. Multiple Fixed Service Providers (FSPs) licensing guidelines were announced. Internet Service Providers (ISPs) have been allowed to set up International Internet Gateways, both Satellite and Landing stations for submarine optical fiber cables. Two categories of infrastructure providers have been allowed to provide end-to-end bandwidth and dark fiber, right of way, towers, duct space etc. Guidelines have been issued by the Government to open up Internet telephony (IP).

Privatization of Telecommunications in India

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5 The Indian government was composed of many factions (parties) which had different ideologies. Some of them were willing to throw open the market to foreign players (the centrists) and others wanted the government to regulate infrastructure and restrict the involvement of foreign players. Due to this political background it was very difficult to bring about liberalization in telecommunications. When a bill was in parliament a majority vote had to be passed, and such a majority was difficult to obtain, given to the number of parties having different ideologies. Liberalization started in 1981 when Prime Minister Indira Gandhi signed contracts with Alcatel CIT of France to merge with the state owned Telecom Company (ITI), in an effort to set up 5,000,000 lines per year. But soon the policy was let down because of political opposition. She invited Sam Pitroda a US based NRI to set up a Center for Development of Telematics(C-DOT), however the plan failed due to political reasons. During this period, after the assassination of Indira Gandhi, under the leadership of Rajiv Gandhi, many public sector organizations were set up like the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) , VSNL and MTNL. Many technological developments took place in this regime but still foreign players were not allowed to participate in the telecommunications business. After 1995 the government set up TRAI (Telecom Regulatory Authority of India) which reduced the interference of Government in deciding tariffs and policy making. The DoT opposed this. The political powers changed in 1999 and the new government under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee was more pro-reforms and introduced better liberalization policies. They split DoT in two- one policy maker and the other service provider (DTS) which was later renamed as BSNL. The proposal of raising the stake of foreign investors from 49% to 74% was rejected by the opposite political party and leftist thinkers. Domestic business groups wanted the government to privatize VSNL. Finally in April 2002, the government decided to cut its stake of 53% to 26% in VSNL and to throw it open for sale to private enterprises. TATA finally took 25% stake in VSNL. This was a gateway to many foreign investors to get entry into the Indian Telecom Markets. After March 2000, the government became more liberal in making policies and 5

6 issuing licenses to private operators. The government further reduced license fees for cellular service providers and increased the allowable stake to 74% for foreign companies. Because of all these factors, the service fees finally reduced and the call costs were cut greatly enabling every common middle class family in India to afford a cell phone. Nearly 32 million handsets were sold in India. The data reveals the real potential for growth of the Indian mobile market. In March 2008 the total GSM and CDMA mobile subscriber base in the country was 375 million, which represented a nearly 50% growth when compared with previous year. As the unbranded Chinese cell phones which do not have International Mobile Equipment Identity (IMEI) numbers pose a serious security risk to the country, Mobile network operators therefore planned to suspend the usage of around 30 million mobile phones (about 8 % of all mobiles in the country) by 30 April. 56 years the average monthly subscribers additions were around 0.05 to 0.1 million only and the total mobile subscribers base in December 2002 stood at 10.5 millions. However, after a number of proactive initiatives were taken by regulators and licensors, the total number of mobile subscribers has increased greatly to 584 million people as of March 2010. India has opted for the use of both the GSM (global system for mobile communications) and CDMA (code-division multiple access) technologies in the mobile sector. In addition to landline and mobile phones, some of the companies also provide the WLL service. The mobile tariffs in India have also become lowest in the world. A new mobile connection can be activated with a monthly commitment of US$0.15 only. In 2005 alone additions increased to around 2 million per month in the year 2003-04 and 2004-05] In June 2009, the Government of India banned the import of several mobile phones manufactured in China citing concerns over quality and the lack of IMEI's which make it difficult for authorities in India to track the sale and use of such phones. In April 2010, the Government was also reported to be blocking Indian service providers from purchasing Chinese mobile technology citing concerns that Chinese hackers could compromise the Indian telecommunications network during times of national emergency. A series of attacks on Indian government websites and computer networks by suspected Chinese hackers has 6

7 also made Indian regulators suspicious with regards to the import of potentially sensitive equipment from China. The companies reported to be affected by this are Huawei Technologies and ZTE.

Mobile telephones
The Mobile telecommunications system in India is the second largest in the world and it was thrown open to private players in the 1990s. The country is divided into multiple zones, called circles (roughly along state boundaries). Government and several private players run local and long distance telephone services. Competition has caused prices to drop and calls across India are one of the cheapest in the world. The rates are supposed to go down further with new measures to be taken by the Information Ministry. The mobile service has seen phenomenal growth since 2000. In September 2004, the number of mobile phone connections has crossed fixed-line connections. India primarily follows the GSM mobile system, in the 900 MHz band. Recent operators also operate in the 1800 MHz band. The dominant players are Airtel, Reliance Infocomm, Vodafone, Idea cellular and BSNL/MTNL. There are many smaller players, with operations in only a few states. International roaming agreements exist between most operators and many foreign carriers India is divided into 23 telecom circles. They are listed below:

Andhra Pradesh Bihar & Jharkhand Chennai Delhi Gujarat & Daman & Diu Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu and Kashmir Karnataka Kerala & Lakshadweep Kolkata 7

Madhya Pradesh & Chhattisgarh Maharashtra excluding Mumbai & Goa Mumbai North Eastern States (Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, & Tripura) Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Tamil Nadu excluding Chennai & Pondicherry Eastern Uttar Pradesh Western Uttar Pradesh & Uttarakhand West Bengal excluding Kolkata, Andaman & Nicobar Islands & Sikkim

Next generation networks

In the Next Generation Networks, multiple access networks can connect customers to a core network based on IP technology. These access networks include fibre optics or coaxial cable networks connected to fixed locations or customers connected through Wi-Fi as well as to 3G networks connected to mobile users. As a result, in the future, it would be impossible to identify whether the next generation network is a fixed or mobile network and the wireless access broadband would be used both for fixed and mobile services. It would then be futile to differentiate between fixed and mobile networks both fixed and mobile users will access services through a single core network. Indian telecom networks are not very intensive as developed countrys telecom networks and India's teledensity is low only in rural areas. 670,000 route kilometers (419,000 miles) of optical fibres has been laid in India by the major operators, even in remote areas and the process continues. BSNL alone has laid optical fibre to 30,000 Telephone Exchanges out of their 36 Exchanges. Keeping in mind the viability of providing services in rural areas, an attractive solution appears to be one which offers multiple service facility at low costs. A rural network based on the extensive optical fibre network, using Internet Protocol and offering a variety of services and the availability of open platforms for 8

9 service development, viz. the Next Generation Network, appears to be an attractive proposition. Fibre network can be easily converted to Next Generation network and then used for delivering multiple services at cheap cost.

ADITYA BIRLA GROUP PROFILE:

A US$ 30 billion corporation, the Aditya Birla Group is in the League of Fortune 500. It is anchored by an extraordinary force of 130,600 employees, belonging to 40 different nationalities. In the year 2009, the Group was ranked among the top six great places for leaders in the Asia-Pacific region, in a study conducted by Hewitt Associates, RBL Group and Fortune magazine. In India, the Group has been adjudged the best employer in India and among the top 20 in Asia by the Hewitt-Economic Times and Wall Street Journal Study 2007. Over 60 per cent of the Group's revenues flow from its overseas operations. The Group operates in 27 countries Australia, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Brazil, Canada, China, Egypt, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Italy, Korea, Laos, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Switzerland, Thailand, UAE, UK, USA and Vietnam.

Idea Cellular: Company Profile

IDEA Cellular is an Aditya Birla Group Company, India's first truly multinational corporation. IDEA Cellular is a publicly listed company, having listed on the Bombay 9

10 Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in March 2007.It is a leading GSM mobile services operator in India with 93.75 mn (as of 31st May 2011) subscribers, under brand IDEA. It is a pan India integrated GSM operator covering the entire telephony landscape of the country, and has NLD and ILD operations. A frontrunner in introducing revolutionary tariff plans, IDEA Cellular has the distinction of offering the most customer friendly and competitive Pre Paid offerings, for the first time in India, in an increasingly segmented market. From basic voice & Short Message Service (SMS) services to high-end value added & GPRS services such as Blackberry, Data card, Mobile TV, Games etc - IDEA is seen as an innovative, customer focused brand. IDEA offers affordable and world-class mobile services to varied segments of mobile users. Be it high end users, or low-end, price sensitive consumers - IDEA's tariff plans are designed to suit every pocket. With a vision of delighting its customers while meeting their individual communication needs anytime, anywhere, IDEA offers seamless coverage to roaming customers traveling to any part of the country, as well as to international traveling customers across over 200 countries. IDEA Cellular has partnership with over 400 operators to ensure that customers are always connected while on the move, within the country or other parts of the world. IDEA is the winner of 'The Emerging Company of the Year Award' at The Economic Times Corporate Excellence Awards 2008-09. The company has received several other national and international recognitions for its path-breaking innovations in mobile telephony products & services. It won the GSM Association Award for "Best Billing and Customer Care Solution for 2 consecutive years. It was awarded "Mobile Operator of the Year Award - India for 2007 and 2008 at the Annual Asian Mobile News Awards.

Service Areas
The Indian telecommunications market for mobile services is divided into 22 "Service Areas" classified into "Metro", Category "A", Category "B" and Category 10

11 "C" service areas by the Government of India. These classifications are based principally on a Service Area's revenue generating potential. IDEA is a pan-India operator with services being made available in all parts of the country. The telecom service areas have been divided into Established and New Service Areas.

Established Service Areas

The established service areas are Delhi, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Haryana, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh (West). Licenses for the Maharashtra and Gujarat Service Areas were awarded in December 1995, with network rollout and commercial launch achieved in 1997. In January 2001 the mobile operations in Andhra Pradesh Service Area were integrated with IDEA through a merger with Tata Cellular Limited. In June 2001, the mobile operations in Madhya Pradesh Service Area were fully integrated with IDEA through an acquisition of RPG Cellcom Limited. In October 2001, the license for Delhi Service Area was acquired during the fourth mobile license auction, with network rollout and commercial launch in November 2002. In January 2004, Escotel Mobile Communications Private Limited ("Escotel"), was acquired with its original licenses in the Service Areas of Haryana, Uttar Pradesh (West) and Kerala. All these Service Areas were re-branded and integrated with IDEA in June 2004.

New Service Areas

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12 The New Service Areas are Uttar Pradesh (East), Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Bihar, Mumbai, Karnataka, Punjab, Orissa, Chennai & Tamil Nadu, Jammu & Kashmir, Kolkata & West Bengal, and Assam & North East. Licenses for Uttar Pradesh (East), Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh were acquired through the acquisition of Escotel (Escorts Telecommunications Limited). Idea launched its services in Mumbai and Bihar in 2008. The Mumbai launch was the largest Metro City launch in India. In Bihar, Idea acquired 500,000 subscribers in just over 100 days. Brand Idea was launched in Karnataka and Punjab, through the acquisition of Spice Communications. The company has expanded its pan-India presence through service launches in Orissa, Chennai & Tamil Nadu, Jammu & Kashmir, Kolkata & West Bengal, and the North East states in FY10.

Mission:

Brand Information:
The brand Idea - It is almost impossible to disintegrate brand Idea from the
corporate Idea. Brand values are the company values and vice versa. Brand Vision: It goes without saying that the brand vision of idea mirrors the companys vision. The brand mission statement is...... To be the most customer-focused mobile service brand, continuously innovating to help liberate our customers from the shackles of time & space. IDEA - Brand Values 12

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Innovate. Stimulate. Liberate.... It is these brand values, which have made us a formidable player in the telecom industry. Innovations that stimulate the customer and liberate him from the shackles of time and space are the core of our brand. This is what we strive for. Nothing more, nothing less, nothing else.

IDEA - Brand Mission

The The The Make a India Technology Customer single footprint Advantage Focus interaction a Idea Idea Idea lasting Anywhere connectivity - bringing India closer. Tomorrow's technology to enrich today.

relationship. The Employee Focus Idea

Nurture the roots that nurture our ideas.

Brand Initiatives Our aim, through media buying and planning, is to create year round impact. With the objective of Strengthening our brand, we work with strategic communication partners on campaigns like sponsorship of the Idea International Indian Film Academy awards and the television programs Idea Rocks India, Idea Star Singer and Idea Andhra Idol. We seek engagement with subscribers on a variety of levels, from major celebrity fashion shows to small local events timed to coincide with new product offerings. Since August 2003, we have commissioned a Brand Track Index Study to evaluate the health of our brand. The Brand Track Index Study is a monthly study 13

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conducted by TNS, a marketing consultant engaged by us to evaluate our brand using faceto-face interviews on a random sample of mobile users a well as those Intending to purchase mobiles within the next three months. According to the study our brand is perceived as reliable/trustworthy and one that offers cheaper and good promotional offers. We have improved our rating in the Brand Track Index calculated by the study in the past year reflecting, we believe, the growing strength of our brand. The main communication medium for the Idea brand is television, where we seek strategic Idea brand coverage in various formats. Billboards and hoardings are used as a secondary medium, customized for specific regional preferences to communicate effectively at the local level. We also use other mass communication media such as the press and radio to communicate price plans and other tactical and customer information. All our key initiatives are subjected to a rigorous testing and launch process to ensure accountability for all advertising spend and improve the chances of success of a new product. This process is followed up with extensive briefing of call center agents and sales personnel and real-time tracking of the impact of the communication and feedback from subscribers.

Our Values
Values We Value: Integrity - Honesty in every action At Aditya Birla Group, Integrity is defined as: Acting and taking decisions in a manner that is fair, honest, following the highest standards of professionalism and also perceived to be so. Integrity for us means not only financial and intellectual integrity, but in all other forms as are commonly understood.

Commitment - Deliver on the promise - At Aditya Birla Group Commitment is defined

as: On the foundation of integrity, doing whatever it takes to deliver value to all

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15 stakeholders. In the process, taking ownership of our actions and decisions, those of our team and that part of the organization that we are responsible for . Passion energized action

At Aditya Birla Group Passion is defined as: A missionary zeal arising out of emotional engagement with the organization that makes work joyful and inspires each one to give his or her best. Relentless pursuit of goals and objectives with the highest level of energy and enthusiasm, Seamlessness At Aditya that Birla is boundryless Group, voluntary in Seamlessness and letter is and defined spontaneous. spirit as:

Thinking and working together across functional silos, hierarchies, business and geographies. Leveraging the available diversity to garner synergy benefits and promote openness Speed through sharing one and step collaborative ahead efforts. always

At Aditya Birla Group, Speed is defined as: Responding to internal and external customers with a sense of urgency. Continuously seeking to crash timelines and choosing the right rhythm to optimize organization efficiencies.

AREA OF PUNJAB UNDER IDEA NETWORK COVERAGE

Figure 1.3. Area of Punjab under Idea Network Coverage 15

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SOURCE: www.ideacellular.com

CHURN: In a general context, churn is a synonym for agitation or turnover. In

a business context, it generally refers to customer or employee turnover, and especially attrition.

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17 In the telecommunication industry, customers are able to choose among multiple service providers and actively exercise their rights of switching from one service provider to another. In this fiercely competitive market, customers demand tailored products and better services at less prices, while service providers constantly focus on acquisitions as their business goals. Given the fact that the telecommunications industry experiences an average of 30-35 percent annual churn rate and it costs 5-10 times more to recruit a new customer than to retain an existing one, customer retention has now become even more important than customer acquisition. For many incumbent operators, retaining high profitable customers is the number one business pain. Figure.1.4. Target Customer Selection Criteria

SOURCE: www.demandmetric.wordpress.com Many telecommunications companies deploy retention strategies in synchronizing programs and processes to keep customers longer by providing them with tailored products and services. With retention strategies in place, many companies start to include churn reduction as one of their business goals. In order to support telecommunications companies manage churn reduction, not only do we need to predict which customers are at high risk of churn, but also we need to know how soon these high-risk customers will churn. Therefore 17

18 the telecommunications companies can optimize their marketing intervention resources to prevent as many customers as possible from churning. In other words, if the telecommunications companies know which customers are at high risk of churn and when they will churn, they are able to design customized customer communication and treatment programs in a timely efficient manner. In India, the mobile telecommunication market was opened to the private enterprises since 1990. At the initial stage, there were few mobile operators to get involved, like Bharti airtel, Reliance, Tata Ent., BSNL, Idea cellular etc. To keep the competitive advantages and acquire as many customers as possible, most operators invest a lot to expand the business in the very beginning. The competition is getting severe day by day inspite of large base customers in India. It means that how to keep good relationship with customers and remain competitive in such a tough campaign is really an important task to these operators. Undoubtedly,Churn is a critical problem that is now harassing telecom companies in India. For many telecom executives, figuring out how to deal with Churn is turning out to be the key to very survival of their organizations. Therefore, in such a competitive environment within the service industries, retaining customers and maximizing profit from an existing customer base have become at least as important as attracting customers, surely telecom industry is not the exception.

CUSTOMER RETENTION VALUE

If retention can be increased by just 2%, the overall lifetime value of each customer, as Measurable by net present value, would increase by more than 25%. Inconsequence, Customer defection is a problem and customer retention is an opportunity in both Manufacturing and service firms. Customer retention is more powerful and effective than Customer satisfaction. Customer retention represents the activities that produce the necessary customer satisfaction that creates customer loyalty, which actually improves the bottom line.

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Churn figures Month on Month

Table 1.1. Churn figures January onwards
Month Base In Vol Vol MNP Post2Pre Churn+Migration Jan 460,273 5,833 3,252 189 3,453 12,727 Feb 461,439 6,374 2,623 2,170 3,639 14,806 Mar 460,516 6,240 3,930 2,134 4,398 16,702 Apr 457,643 5,936 3,886 1,585 3,553 14,960 Avg 459,968 6,096 3,423 1,520 3,761 14,799

SOURCE: Service Delivery Team (Idea Cellular Ltd., Mohali) In the month of April, MNP Churn seems to be moving on stable mode
Table 1.2. Churn figures in terms of percentage January onwards
Month In Vol Vol MNP Post2Pre Churn+Migration Jan 1.27% 0.71% 0.04% 0.75% 2.77% Feb 1.38% 0.57% 0.47% 0.79% 3.21% Mar 1.36% 0.85% 0.46% 0.96% 3.63% Apr 1.30% 0.85% 0.35% 0.78% 3.27% Avg 1.33% 0.74% 0.33% 0.82% 3.22%

SOURCE: Service Delivery Team (Idea Cellular Ltd., Mohali)

Figure 1.5.Churn percentage

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SOURCE: Service Delivery Team (Idea Cellular Ltd., Mohali)

Churn Reasons

(Postpaid)

Postpaid churn reasons can be studied in three categories Voluntary churn, Involuntary churn and MNP ( Mobile Number Portability) Port out.

VOLUNTARY CHURN :
Voluntary churn in the telecommunication industry deals with measurement of customer disconnects for personal reasons like switching to a competitor, cancelling service, transferring from one place to another, etc. The subscriber initiates it and is either deliberate or incidental. The deliberate reasons might include pricing, poor customer service or network problems while incidental churn might arise due to financial contingencies, location or major life changes.

PROCESS OVERVIEW
Key deliverables : Customers account to be permanently disconnected as per timelines defined by TRAI Scope of process: START Disconnection request received from customer END Customers account permanently disconnected

II. Regulatory Guidelines: TRAI Directive dated 29th Aug 06 1. Docket no. to be generated and to be communicated to customer for all service request calls made to customer care helpline no. 2. Raise the bill only after adjustment of security deposit in the event of a request for termination of service received from a customer; 3. Stop charging the customer the fixed monthly charges like rental beyond the above prescribed period of termination of service or from the date of last usage, whichever is later. 20

21 TRAI Directive dated 20th March 09 Termination / closure of service to be done <= 7days III. BUSINESS POLICY Customer Premises Equipment (CPE - includes external antenna, booster etc.) to be collected from customer, however request to be accepted even if CPE is not returned at the time of request Icare Communication ID with date & time to be written on Letter at the time of acknowledgement of letter For bulk connections, only single Icare request to be raised, however for churn reporting, same to be captured through BSCS to get the exact count of Retention / Churn TD to be done as per following TATs Contact Center / Service Center - Immediately after completion of 3 levels of retention efforts or within 2 days from request date Letter / Email / Fax / Web - with in 2 working days from the date of receipt of communication after retention efforts Total TAT for Request tagging is immediate Total TAT for Temporary Disconnection (TD) is within 02 days from request date (for cases where billed + unbilled outstanding is cleared) Total TAT for Temporary Disconnection (TD) is within 02 days and OCB is immediate from request date (for cases where outstanding is not cleared by customer) Total TAT for Permanent Disconnection (PD) is within 17 days from request date

Process: Voluntary Disconnection & Retention

Figure 1.6. Voluntary disconnection and retention process(service center)

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SOURCE: Service Delivery Team (Idea Cellular Ltd., Mohali)

Figure 1.7. Voluntary disconnection and retention process(Contact center)

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SOURCE: Service Delivery Team (Idea Cellular Ltd., Mohali)

Figure 1.8. Retention process(Service Delivery Team)

SOURCE: Service Delivery Team (Idea Cellular Ltd., Mohali)

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The following are the Empowerments/Freebies pitched to customers who request for Postpaid to Prepaid Migration:Table 1.3. List of Freebies pitched by Retention team

S.no 1 2 3 4 5 6

Empowerment 200 LOCAL SMS FREE M-M/L 150 MIN DISC STD@50p/MIN M-M/L 8000 Seconds 3 BC LIFE LONG PLAN-CLI WAIVER RENTAL DISC OF RS.25/- for 6BC

Period 3 BC 3 BC 3 BC 3 BC 3 BC 6BC

Package applicable netsetter plans) All

not

applicable

on

All minute Pulse plans All minute pulse plans with STD base rate of Rs 1.5/min All per second Pulse plans Lifelong Package Persec 125 plan only

8 9

Number Change FOC with approval from Zonal service centre lead / Zonal Postpaid manager/ Circle Retention Manager. Transfer of Ownership FOC with approval Zonal service centre lead / Zonal Postpaid manager/ Circle Retention Manager

SOURCE: Service Delivery Team (Idea Cellular Ltd., Mohali)

Figure 1.9. Voluntary disconnection:letter/fax/web process

SOURCE: Service Delivery Team (Idea Cellular Ltd., Mohali)

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Figure 1.10. Voluntary disconnection(backend) process

SOURCE: Service Delivery Team (Idea Cellular Ltd., Mohali)

Mathematically, Churn rate can be calculated as Monthly Churn = ( C 0 + A 1 C 1) / C 0 where C 0, is the number of customers at the start of the month, C 1, the number of customers at the end of the month, A 1, the gross new customers during the month.

The table below show the breakup of Voluntary churn reasons January11 onwards: 25

26 Table 1.4. Voluntary churn reasons January11 onwards

S. NO. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 REASONS FOR VOL CHURN Leaving Service Area MULTIPLE CONNECTIONS PERSONAL-SECOND PARTY USER WRONG BILLING PERSONAL SECURITY REFUNDABLE NEW IDEA CONNECTION EXPENSIVE Tariff / Charges / Rent PERSONAL-HANDSET LOST CUST SERVICES NETWORK BARRING COMPETITION PERSONAL -- DEATH BILL NOT RECEIVED OTHERS JAN 688 286 226 102 96 73 71 69 31 31 24 22 15 8 1827 FEB 335 159 152 75 48 42 40 29 22 19 14 6 5 1 992 MAR 304 252 199 50 73 33 155 62 15 53 15 23 10 3 224 1471 APR 312 224 174 50 94 27 182 62 11 34 21 15 4 5 113 1328

TOTA L

SOURCE: Service Delivery Team (Idea Cellular Ltd., Mohali)

Observations: Voluntary Churn 1. Mostly the reasons for disconnection given were moving out of town/going abroad. 2. It can be noted that there was churn due to wrong billing but billing issues showed improvement later. 3. Also, noted in many corporate where tariff is really low there are many disconnections due to Multiple connections (in a single individuals name). Many connections are taken for others in the same corporate tariff, but then there connections are churned since the individual doesnt want to take responsibility against non-payment and other issues. Recommendations 1. Effective customer service could be a deterrent to churn 2. It is necessary to proactively strategize and service customers so as to retain the high value ones. 3. Proper operational and analytical CRM tools in place that would help segment analyze customer behavior and predict their propensity to churn 26

27 4. Alternate contact numbers should be obtained. 5. Research indicates that the 4 most important factors that cause churn are - Service, Tariff, Network and Brand Image. Service and tariff are the two things that we can improve on a relatively shorter period of time in order to reduce dissatisfaction.

INVOLUNTARY CHURN refers to customers who are disconnected

by the telecom operator. It is initiated by the telecom company and is due to unavoidable circumstances such as death of the subscriber or disconnection due to fraud, bad debt or under-utilization. The table below show the breakup of Involuntary churn reasons January11 onwards:. Table 1.5. Involuntary churn reasons January11 onwards
S. NO. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 REASONS FOR INVOL CHURN DUE TO NON PAYMENT NRMG RECOVERY -VE CPV FRAUD CHEQUE DISHONOUR CONNECTION DENIED OTHERS MULTIPLE CONNECTIONS DECLINED PAYMENT CORP CMG RECOVERY OUTSTANDING NOT CLEAR JAN 3902 229 128 102 27 3 2 1 1 FEB 2281 327 130 89 21 19 13 4 7 MAR 2291 357 150 77 41 30 27 15 8 3 1 APR 2214 147 360 62 26 18 15 1 7 15

TOTA L

4395

2891

3000

2865

SOURCE: Service Delivery Team (Idea Cellular Ltd., Mohali)

Observations: Involuntary Churn 1. Unpaid bills are the major reason for involuntary churn. 2. There are cases wherein the customer has not received the bill or wherein he has a bill dispute. Hence he has not made the payment. This was observed by analyzing the complaints that the customer has logged in.

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28 3. It is interesting to note that there are no/less disconnections for those customers who are on Direct Debit. Hence, this can be looked as one way to reduce disconnection. 4. Most of the subscribers choose to not pay the last bill before they leave the organization. As understood from the collections department, attempts to trace them are also in vain, since their alternate contact numbers are not reachable.

Recommendations 1. Direct Debit - should be promoted. 2. E Bill should be encouraged It was observed that many companies and individuals were open to E Bills. But they were not taking the initiative themselves for subscribing to E Bill. Hence, I feel that if there is an active campaign to promote E Bill in all companies, there would be many lesser complaints over bill delivery delays and payment delays. 3. E Bills could also be sent proactively to all those subscribers whose email address we have in the system along with their hard copy of their bills. 4. Alternate Contact Numbers and Reference Checks- should be obtained and verified too in order to improve contact ability. Presently, reference numbers are ID proofs are being obtained. But, reference checks should be done in especially companies like call centers where the subscribers are not traceable after they leave. 5. Alternate contact numbers should not be company board line numbers. Ideally they should be mobile numbers.

MNP:

Mobile Number Portability (MNP) allows Mobile subscribers to change

their service provider while retaining their subscriber number. Portability benefits subscribers and increases the level of competition between service providers, rewarding those operators having better customer service, network coverage, and service quality. MNP Terminologies related to network : Originating Network : Network of the calling party Donor Network Recipient Network : Previous subscription of Called party : Present subscription of Called party

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29 NPDB : Number Portability Data (maintains portability database and

provides routing instructions) Figure 1.11. MNP Process

SOURCE:wordpress.com Figure 1.12. Call routing process in terms of MNP

SOURCE:wordpress.com

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Figure 1.13. An illustration depicting an Idea customer porting out to Airtel (MNP)

The table below show the breakup of MNP Port out churn reasons January11 onwards :. Table 1.6. MNP Port out churn reasons January11 onwards
S. N0. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Total REASONS FOR MNP PORT OUT

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

NETWORK COMPETITION Personal EXPENSIVE Tariff / Charges / Rent PERSONAL -FINANCIAL ISSUE CUST SERVICES WRONG BILLING BARRING MULTIPLE CONNECTIONS NEW IDEA CONNECTION BILL NOT RECEIVED COMPANY POLICY PERSONAL-SECOND PARTY USER Leaving Service Area PERSONAL SECURITY REFUNDABLE OTHERS
85

487 305 245 90 79 61 57 36 17 13 11 6 4 1 1

594 454 274 49 213 57 66 32 27 16 46 13 5

572 381 519 27

43 32 35 67 1 18 10 3

293
1413 1846 2001

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SOURCE: Service Delivery Team (Idea Cellular Ltd., Mohali)

Observations: MNP Port out 1. It has been observed that Network Problem is the major reason for MNP Port out of Idea 2. It can be noted that customers are being acquired by competitors since they offer them with cheaper tariffs and better plans. 3. Customers are reluctant to disclose reasons (Personal reasons) for churn Recommendations: 1. Network complaints must be taken into account seriously and worked upon. 2. Analytical customer retention solutions would help in preventing MNP Port out churn 3. Branding and service differentiators also help in taking customers away from competitors. 4. Learn from lost customers, since dissatisfied customers often engage in negative word-of-mouth communication.

The following pie chart depicts the churn breakage in terms of percentage January onwards:
Figure 1.14. Churn breakage in terms of percentage January onwards

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Purpose for conducting the research:

Customers churning out of Postpaid are a direct revenue loss to the company. A Postpaid customer gives approx. Rs.420 ARPU (Average Revenue Per Usage) and Total Revenue of Rs.17.2 crores/month. The current churn percentage is 2% (April11) which is 12000 in nos. which works out to be Rs.50 lakhs of revenue loss/month. Thus, Postpaid Churn is approx. 3% of Postpaid Revenue. Thus, the project aims to reduce the postpaid churn by identifying the reasons, implementing action for the same and reduce the revenue loss.

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CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW

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LITERATURE REVIEW
According to Junxiang Lu, retaining high profitable customers is the number one business pain. Many telecommunications companies deploy retention strategies in synchronizing programs and processes to keep customers longer by providing them with tailored products and services. With retention strategies in place, many companies start to include churn reduction as one of their business goals. In order to support telecommunications companies manage churn reduction, not only do we need to predict which customers are at high risk of churn, but also we need to know how soon these highrisk customers will churn. Therefore the telecommunications companies can optimize their marketing intervention resources to prevent as many customers as possible from churning. In other words, if the telecommunications companies know which customers are at high risk of churn and when they will churn, they are able to design customized customer communication and treatment programs in a timely efficient manner. Alfred Ultsch (2001) pointed out that to be able to control and reduce the customer churn rate may be a vital survival factor for mobile phone companies. In particular it would be necessary to prevent the churn of profitable customers. If it is possible to predict whether a customer is likely to churn in two months, given current customers records, appropriate action by the business may prevent the loss of the customer. The acquisition of a new customer in the telecommunication market usually involves a substantial investment. In order to be profitable a new customer should buy services from the company over a long period. The profitability of a businesscustomer relationship is therefore directly proportional to the period of time a customer buys services from the business. To know why a profitable customer decides to discontinue a contract is essential better to tailor products to profitable market segments. Such knowledge is also essential for the marketing strategies to acquire new profitable customers. Business objectives for churn predictions are to concentrate marketing activities on those customers that are likely to produce profit by remaining with a company for longer periods of time and to retain profitable customers. There is little consistency in the measurement of churn; hence, it is very difficult to make a comparison between the churn rates of two different telecom companies. Moreover, because churn rates can make a real difference to a service providers share price and 34

35 reputation, these rates are occasionally massaged to make them appear more positive. Churn levels also vary widely according to geographical markets and types of services offered, and may be broadly categorised as being of external or internal nature. External churn is defined as the switching of customers from one service-providing company to another and consists of two main sub-types, Involuntary and voluntary. Involuntary churn refers to customers who are disconnected by the telecom operator. It is initiated by the telecom company and is due to unavoidable circumstances such as death of the subscriber or disconnection due to fraud, bad debt or under-utilisation. Voluntary churn in the telecommunication industry deals with measurement of customer disconnects for personal reasons like switching to a competitor, cancelling service, transferring from one place to another, etc. The subscriber initiates it and is either deliberate or incidental. The deliberate reasons might include pricing, poor customer service or network problems while incidental churn might arise due to financial contingencies, location or major life changes. Internal churn is defined as the switching of customers from one service to another within the same service provider company, for example, switching from post- to pre-paid service within the same cellular service. (Sadia Jahanzeb & Sidrah Jabeen,2007). According to Ali et al, 2009 there is a significant relationship between price reasonability and consumer satisfaction. This employs that fairness of price is the biggest determinant of consumer satisfaction and the competitive advantage to retain consumers for longer period of time. The consumer can even switch if he/she find more reasonable prices with some other cellular service provider. So the service providers are bound to reduce their prices over period of time. Higher the customer satisfaction higher will be the consumer retention. In order to retain consumers the service provider should continuously satisfy its customer. As long as the satisfaction level of customer remains high, he/she will use the services of company. Any decrease in level of satisfaction of customer will also results in reduction of consumers base of the company. With the growing competition among mobile operators, customer churn management has become a pivotal concern and major element of achieving a competitive advantage. Instead the easily answered question of Who? will churn guides the management strategy, rather than the more fundamental question Why? the customer may want to churn. Originally vertically integrated, mobile carriers now have to carefully 35

36 address the needs of millions of customers, understand their behaviour, predict their needs and design products and services that will at best address those needs. The competition becomes even more fierce with the penetration of mobile phone usage steadily reaching its peak, as attracting new customers becomes extremely difficult and losing existing customers very easy, although painful. (Khalatyan, 2010). Customer churn is also closely related to the estimation of the lifetime value of the customer. The churn models are used to determinate the customers who are at risk of leaving and to analyze whether those customers are worth retaining. A company will therefore have a sense of how much is really being lost because of the customer churn and the scale of the efforts that would be appropriate for retention campaign. Thus customer churn is closely related to the customer retention rate and loyalty (Vishnuprasad Nagadevara,2010). Telecommunication companies face considerable loss of revenue, because some of the customers who are at risk of leaving a company. Increasing such customers, becoming crucial problem for any telecommunication company. As the size of the organization increases such cases also increases, which makes it difficult to manage, such alarming conditions by a routine information system. Hence, needed is highly sophisticated customized and advanced decision support system. (Rahul J. Jadhav & Pawar,2011) In the mobile telecommunication sector which has oligopoly characteristics, like every other place in the world, mobile number portability increases the competition, protects the consumer, allows them switch the provider easier than before and decreases the costs of changing provider. But the intended results cant be obtained as seen in many countries. This situation lead us try to understand the mobile number portability properly and make some researches, and analysis from a different point of view to obtain more successful results from the application. Because of many reasons, like changes in the service innovations, demand structure, learning the similarity between offerings of service providers and the demand, changes in the price and quality problems, significant number of consumers change the operator at a particular time after the first mobile subscription at least one time. Thanks to the mobile number portability system, the sensitivity of consumers to Usharani T.

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37 these factors increases and consumers can chose the company that best fills their expectations.(Tlin Durukan, Ibrahim Bozac & Taylan Taner Dogan,2011)

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CHAPTER 3

RESEARCH METHODOLGY

Relevance of the study

Marketing Research, undoubtedly is essential for corporate planning, Market planning, product planning, promotional planning, Distribution and price planning. It helps a 38

39 company grow in fiercely competitive environment, help to increase sales by understanding the exact wants of customers etc. The project would prove relevant for company as it would help to identify the top reasons of Postpaid churn and help suggest/implement action for the same since customers churning out of Postpaid are a direct revenue loss to the company, Postpaid Churn being approx. 3% of Postpaid Revenue.

Project Objective
The objectives outlined for this project involved : 1. Churn Analysis and Recommendation - Understand the reasons behind churn and identify ways to reduce it. 2. Implement/suggest measures to reduce the churn in terms of Postpaid to Prepaid migration, voluntary churn and MNP (Mobile Number Portability) 3. Improve Customer Engagement Hence, these objectives were translated into 2 key focus areas Improving customer satisfaction and customer experience Reducing complaints flowing in.

Project Deliverables
Final report that includes the analysis and recommendations to the problems in concern.

Research Methodology
Methodology refers to the process that enables the analyst to collect and analyze data or to make a multi dimensional study of a particular aspect of data.

Data Collection:
We will address a conceptual framework of churn management, and describe the methodology to discover the churner behavior by using the following data collection methods.

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40 For conducting this study data has been collected in two ways: 1. Primary Data Collection : My Idea store visit (service centre cum retail outlet): This included interacting with the customers which helped to understand the customers needs and requirements ,the affect of competition and the basic reason for churn. Customer VOC (voice of customer): This included tele-calling exercise where respondents were interviewed telephonically regarding Postpaid to Prepaid Migration reasons and were selected from the regions throughout Punjab.

2. Secondary data Collection: Gathering knowledge from the available data related to current trends/offers and reports (Service Delivery Team): The basic purpose for such information was to understand and compare the results with their past performance and identify the laxities, or other areas which needed to be changed, altered or suspended. External information through public sources like TRAI and the Internet

Nature of Study:
The current study is Exploratory Research(Qualitative research) where the data is being collected from various primary and secondary sources keeping in view the key objectives of the study.

Sampling Technique:
Sampling technique followed in the study was Convenience Sampling technique which is a non-probability sampling technique where respondents were selected because of their convenient accessibility and proximity.

Sample Size
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41 The 100 responses were analyzed. The responses have been taken from Punjab region. A total of 30 respondents were interviewed face to face regarding the reason for the Postpaid to Prepaid Migration. Tele-calling exercise: A total of 40 respondents were interviewed telephonically regarding Postpaid to Prepaid Migration reasons and were selected from the regions throughout Punjab. A total of 10 live calls were monitored at the call centre (SPANCO, Mohali) that Postpaid to Prepaid Migration calls. A total of 20 recorded calls were monitored at the call centre (SPANCO, Mohali) that included MNP Port out calls.

Sample Area
Chandigarh Mohali Panchkula Manimajra Patiala

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CHAPTER 4

ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

Data Analysis
The data gathered through both the My Idea Visit and the customer VOC was analyzed according the requirements of Idea Cellular, which was to identify the reasons for Postpaid churn

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Plan of Data Analysis- It consists of pie-charts, fish-bone diagrams and Pareto

Analysis which enable us to understand the basic reason for Postpaid churn, therefore enable us to reach to useful conclusions.

Postpaid to Prepaid churn explained with the help of a Fish-Bone Diagram :

Figure 4.1. Fishbone diagram depicting Postpaid to Prepaid Migration reasons

Ishikawa diagrams (also called fishbone diagrams, or herringbone diagrams, causeand-effect diagrams or Fishikawa) are causal diagrams that show the causes of a certain event. The head of the fish is the quality problem, such as damaged zippers on a garment or broken valves on a tire. The diagram is drawn so that the spine of the fish connects the head to the possible cause of the problem. Each of these possible causes can then have smaller bones that address specific issues that relate to each cause. Using the Fishbone diagram, we can identify the basic reasons for churn in a more systematic and uncomplicated manner. After listing the possible causes for the problem, we 43

44 can analyze each one carefully, giving due importance to statements made by each respondent, accepting or ruling out certain causes, and eventually arriving at the root cause of the problem. In general, Fishbone diagrams gives us increased understanding of complex problems by visual means of analyses. The above diagram now has a comprehensive list of possible causes for the problem (Postpaid to Prepaid Reasons), though the list may not be exhaustive or complete. However, we have enough information to begin discussing the individual causes and to analyze their relevance to the problem. The company can use analytical, statistical, and graphical tools to assist in evaluating each of the causes. The Pareto principle is also used to find the elements that cause major problems and to list them as major causes in the Fishbone diagram.

The following are the observations of the above diagram : Due to less usage of Postpaid connection, people prefer to go for Prepaid connection since there are no monthly rental on Prepaid unlike Postpaid connection. A majority of people feel that it is useless to pay rental charges per month and its better to have Prepaid connection instead Many have issues regarding bill such as not getting timely bill, wrong billing etc.

The below bar graph depicts the Postpaid to Prepaid Migration Reasons where N=80 Figure 4.2. Bar-graph depicting Postpaid to Prepaid Migration reasons

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The below pie-chart depicts the Postpaid to Prepaid Migration reasons in terms of percentage :Figure 4.3. Pie-chat depicting Postpaid to Prepaid Migration reasons in terms of percentage

Major reason being less usage of Postpaid connection while Expensive tariffs/charges/rent being the second major reason. Identification of top reasons of Postpaid to Prepaid Migration reasons using Pareto Analysis:45

46 Figure 4.4. Pareto chart depicting Postpaid to Prepaid Migration reasons

Pareto analysis is a technique used to identify quality problems based on their degree of importance. The logic behind Pareto analysis is that only a few quality problems are important, whereas many others are not critical. The technique was named after Vilfredo Pareto, a nineteenth-century Italian economist who determined that only a small percentage of people controlled most of the wealth. This concept has often been called the 8020 rule and has been extended to many areas. In quality management the logic behind Paretos principle is that most quality problems are a result of only a few causes. The trick is to identify these causes. The above Pareto diagram enables us to see what 20% of cases are causing 80% of the problems and where efforts should be focused to achieve the greatest improvement. The value of the Pareto Principle for a project manager is that it reminds us to focus on the 20% of things that matter. Of the things we do during a project, only 20% are really important. Those 20% produce 80% of our results. We must identify and focus on those things first, but should not totally ignore the remaining 80% of causes as well. Hence, the major reason for the churn less usage must be focused first, followed by expensive tariffs/rent, then leaving service area and so on.

MNP Port out churn explained with the help of a Fish-Bone Diagram:
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Figure 4.5. Fishbone diagram depicting MNP Port out reasons

The following are the observations of the above diagram: Customers are porting out of Idea to other service provider due to network issues. Competitors like Airtel, Vodafone etc are acquiring customers by providing them offers and providing them with cheaper tariffs. Billing issues too play a major role in this churn The below bar graph depicts the MNP Port out Reasons where N=20 Figure 4.6. Bar-graph depicting MNP Port out reasons

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48 The below pie-chart depicts the MNP Port out reasons in terms of percentage :Figure 4.7. Pie-chart depicting MNP Port out reasons in terms of percentage

Major reason of churn due to Ideas Network problem while Competition being the second major reason. Identification of top reasons of MNP Port out reasons using Pareto Analysis:Figure 4.8. Pareto chart depicting MNP Port out reasons

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As discussed earlier, the above Pareto diagram enables us to see what 20% of cases are causing 80% of the problems and where efforts should be focused to achieve the greatest improvement. Hence, the major reason for the churn network issues must be focused first, followed by competition, then wrong billing and so on.

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CHAPTER 5

CONCLUSION

After carrying the above project, we come to the following conclusion : The cost of acquiring a new customer is more than five times that of retaining an existing customer. So its important to try your best to manage churn and stop your customer from moving out. There are so many ways to reduce churn: better products, better delivery methods, lower prices, building satisfactory customer relationships, better marketing and, above all, successful customer communications.

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51 Industry retention surveys have shown that while price and product are important, most people leave any service because of dissatisfaction with the way they are treated. They would not be looking around if they were happy with their current provider, its service and employees. Telecom involves problems. To keep your customers you have to have a really reliable way to anticipate customer's problems by keeping track of what most people and this particular customer have asked about. Next, you have to have a good system for letting the customer know what you are going to do about the problem, when it is likely to be solved, and how to get back in touch with the right person right away if it is not solved. Some Churn management tools should be used to identify which customer uses a particular service regularly and which ones dont and low users of a particular service should be targeted with awareness campaigns. Fortunately for the mobile industry, an excellent model for rebuilding customer relationships has already been tested in the banking and airlines sectors: loyalty programs. Following the principles of this loyalty programs one European wireless operator achieved a 72 percent decrease in intent to churn, and a corresponding 14 percent increase in revenue per customer among members of its loyalty club. Churn reduction in the telecom industry is a serious problem, but there are many things that can be done to reduce it, and, with a customer database, many ways of measuring your success.

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CHAPTER 6

RECOMMENDATIONS

Recommendations:The important suggestions/recommendations were as follows: Elimination of the present shortcomings (Network Problem, Automatic Activation of Service) Customer Profiling : Gathering more information especially on Interests, Profile, Job, Mobility of the user and alternate contact numbers would help in tailoring retention programs and customer engagement much better.

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54 Process Improvements : Taking a leaf out of Six Sigma practices, we could look at MOM (Minutes of the Meeting) trackers, RCA (Root Cause Analysis) Matrix and Issue Trackers (for SMs to ensure compliance with deadlines). Such tools will help in improving customer satisfaction and track service levels. E.g. The Six Sigma project implemented by Airtel helped the company gain Rs.200 and increased the customer satisfaction index from 61 % to 82 %. Address Verification through SMS or Email : We could ask the user to confirm the address in the system through sms. The user could respond by saying YES or NO to confirm the address. (toll free) Welcome and first bill call management - ideal for gathering more information: There should be a first bill and welcome call especially for enterprise customers. This is also an ideal opportunity to gather additional customer information (like interests, or if he would use roaming frequently etc...) Awareness campaigns: Low users of a particular service should be targeted by awareness campaigns. Mail or SMS online access Ids and passwords: We should proactively send customers User IDs and Passwords (like most banks do). It is then up to the customer to use the online portal or leave it. To encourage the customer to start using the online portal. Developing 12 to 18 months contracts : In order to push the customer into staying with Idea for longer periods, we could give them more incentives to go for 12 to 18 months contract. This could be with blackberry or iPhone or regular voice services. Having a separate call center for Enterprise : Enterprise customers need to be treated differently from regular postpaid customers. Separate call center can be

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55 looked at even for a specific set of customers within the enterprise customers ( like higher value customers or those belonging to specific companies) Loyalty Programs : T Mobile has tied up with Lufthansa airways for converting their mobile usage into air miles. Similarly, Hutch had it with Jet Airways. A more Solid and Aggressive Promotional Campaign (highlighting the new costefficient and affordable schemes) A more Pro-active approach towards the development of the various Market Strategies and to counter the Competition Promoting direct debit/ECS and E-Bill should be promoted. It is necessary to proactively strategize and service customers so as to retain the high value ones. Proper operational and analytical CRM tools in place that would help segment analyze customer behavior and predict their propensity to churn Analytical customer retention solutions would help in preventing MNP Port out churn Branding and service differentiators also help in taking customers away from competitors. Learn from lost customers since dissatisfied customers often engage in negative word-of-mouth communication.

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Limitations:
1. Time was one of the major limitations, as it was not possible to interact with the customers at full length regarding the churn reasons. 2. The Scope of study was limited to areas of Chandigarh, Panchkula, Manimajra, Mohali and Patiala. 3. The customers were reluctant in discussing the problems clearly.

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REFERENCES
Ali, J.F., Ali, I., Waseemullah, Ahmed, I. and Akram, M.,(2009 ), Determinants of consumer retention in cellular industry of Pakistan, published in 2nd CBRC, Lahore, Pakistan Butt,M.M. and Ernest Cyril de Run,(2009),Modeling customer satisfaction in cellular phone services, Jurnal Kemanusiaan bil.13, Jun 2009

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58 Durukan,T., Bozaci,I., Dogan,T.T., (2011),Mobile Number Portability in Turkey: An Empirical Analysis of Consumer Switching Behavior,European Journal of Social Sciences Volume 20, Number 4 (2011) Ferreira,J.B. and Jorge Ferreira da Silva ,(2004),Unraveling Wireless Churn, Latin American Business Review, Vol. 5(4) 2004 Ferreira,J.B., Vellasco,M., Pacheco, M.A. and Barbosa, C.H.,(2010) , Data Mining Techniques on the Evaluation of Wireless Churn, ESANN'2004 proceedings European Symposium on Artificial Neural Networks Bruges (Belgium), 28-30 April 2004, d-side publi., ISBN 2-930307-04-8, pp. 483-488 Grsoy,U.T.S.,(2010),Customer churn analysis in telecommunication sector ,Istanbul University Journal of the School of Business Administration Cilt/Vol:39, Say/No:1, 2010, 35-49 Hamelin,N., Nassali,A. and Hacar,T.,(2010),Determining churn drivers in Moroccan Telecom Sector, Journal of International Business Disciplines, Volume 4, Number 2, May 2010 Jadhav,R.J. and Pawar,U.T.,(2011) ,Churn Prediction in Telecommunication Using Data Mining Technology,(IJACSA) International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications,Vol. 2, No.2, February 2011 Jahanzeb,S. and Jabeen,S.,(2007) , Churn management in the telecom industry of Pakistan: A comparative study of Ufone and Telenor, Database Marketing & Customer Strategy Management Vol. 14, 2, 120129 Khalatyan, A., (2010), Churn Management in Telecommunications-Challenging the innovative Capability of Data Mining Tools, A. Khalatyan / iSCHANNEL 05 (2010) 21-26 Nagadevara,V.,(2010) , Hybrid models and error weighting for predicting customer churn in telecom, Review of Business Research, Volume 10, Number 1, 2010 Sulikowski,P.,(2008) , Mobile Operator Customer Classification in Churn Analysis,SAS Global Forum 2008 Paper 344-2008 Ultsch,A.,(2001) , Emergent self-organising feature maps used for prediction and prevention of churn in mobile phone markets, Journal of Targeting, Measurement and Analysis for Marketing Vol. 10, 4, 314324 Xevelonakis,E. ,(2004),Developing retention strategies based on customer profitability in telecommunications:An empirical study,Database Marketing & Customer Strategy Management Vol. 12, 3, 226242

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BIBLIOGRAPHY
Kotler Philip, Marketing Management, Dorling Kindersley (India) Pvt. Ltd., 13th edition

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60 C. R. Kothari Research Methodology, Vishwa Publication, New Delhi

Internet http://www.ideacellular.com/ http://www.india-cellular.com/ http://www. trai.gov.in /

Other sources include information from sites of the competitors, booklets of the competitors etc.

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