Foster McCollum White & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

President Obama and Senator Stabenow have both reclaimed narrow leads in Michigan, per (FMW)B latest poll.
September 13, 2012
Contact: Eric Foster 313-333-7081 Cell Email: efoster@fostermccollumwhite.com Contact: Tarek Baydoun 313-729-3737 Cell Email: baydounconsulting@gmail.com Contact: Jacqueline McCollum 313-574-5384 Cell Email: jmccollum@fostermccollumwhite.com

The combination of missteps by Mitt Romney, a strong National convention and the deployment of the best closer in U.S. Politics, President Bill Clinton, has helped President Obama regain the lead in Michigan within the margin of error and Senator Stabenow gain a lead outside of the margin of error. Mitt Romney and Pete Hoekstra are still within striking distance which means a significant amount of work will be necessary for Democrats to move Michigan from the tossup to safe Democrat column.
The past month has helped top of the ballot Democratic candidates regain advantages in Michigan. In spite of the initial bounce that Congressman Paul Ryan provided for Mitt Romney and Pete Hoekstra, Michigan has narrowly reset for President Obama and Senator Debbie Stabenow. Our current poll, conducted on September 12, President Obama leads Republican nominee Mitt Romney 45.49% to 43.65%, a lead of 1.84 points, which is within the margin of B error of 2.88%. In the Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW) poll for Fox 2 News Detroit, of Michigan most likely voters in August, President Obama had lost his slight lead of 1.14 points and was trailing Romney by 3.8 points, a net swing of 5.21 points from June. The current shift from Romney back to Obama now is 5.64 points. The margin swing is greater in the Michigan United States Senate contest. Congressman Pete Hoekstra had erased a 9.68 point deficit just before his primary victory in August and taken a 2.35 point lead (within the margin of error) over 2 term Senator Debbie Stabenow. Senator Stabenow has now regained a 4.82 point lead (Stabenow 46.74% to Hoekstra 41.92%). Our data reveals that Michigan is still a battleground state for not just the Presidential campaign but also the national battle between the Republican Party and Democratic Party for control of the U.S. Senate. The past month has helped President Obama regain traction with a number of voting groups he must win or be competitive with, per Eric Foster, chief pollster for Foster McCollum White Baydoun. The campaign is still very fluid, as we identified in June and August. Neither campaign can afford to take Michigan and its 16 electoral votes for granted over the next two months. Presidents campaign needs to shift its focus towards presenting more of a business case narrative of why voters should re-elect President Obama while better defining why Romney/Ryan is not good for America.

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The data prompts further study for both by the Obama and Romney teams, stated Attorney Tarek Baydoun, political analyst for Foster McCollum White Baydoun. The fact that Romney is still leading in the major swing 4 counties that are harbingers for victory statewide and is leading in ten of Michigans 14 congressional districts indicates that Michigan is still wide open and the Democrat ground game will play a crucial role in keeping Michigan Blue. Additionally, the polling data suggests President Obama has gained support among the following groups since our August poll: Male voters. White male voters. 7 of the 8 Congressional Districts that Obama was trailing in our August poll. Southeastern Michigan. Governor Romney has gained support among the following groups since our August poll: White women. The Thumb Region of Michigan. The 7th and 9th Congressional district. We asked respondents which candidate they trust to honor their campaign pledges and work to solve the problems of America. President Obama had a slight advantage, with 45.10% indicating they are more likely to trust Obama and 42.12% more likely to trust Romney. We asked respondents if they had a clear understanding of the Romney campaigns plans to solve Americas problems. In spite of the fact that Romney has been campaigning for the past few years, only 51.15% of Michigan respondents believe they have a clear understanding of Mitt Romneys policies. The data suggest that Romney must provide more detail about his policies. Considering the length of time that Romney has spent trying to reach voters he should have a higher clarity level among the respondents. Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters to determine their voting and issue preferences for: A. B. C. D. The baseline for Presidential General Election Preference. The baseline for United State Senate General Election Preference. Voters preference for trusting the Presidential candidates. Voters preference for understanding Candidate Romneys platform and policies. E. The baseline for all six Michigan Statewide ballot proposals. This sixteen question automated poll survey was conducted on September 12, 2012 and was commissioned by Fox 2 News Detroit. The aggregate Michigan Statewide polling study sample size of 1,155 respondents has a 2.88% margin of error, with a confidence level of 95%. To view the reports of our polling studies on the President, United States Senate and other political topics for Fox 2 News online, please click the following links http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/category/237819/politics

Foster McCollum White & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________ http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/19536310/presidential-poll-for-the-michigan-general-election http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/19536570/us-senate-poll-for-the-michigan-general-election http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/19536655/poll-on-michigan-general-election-ballot-proposals http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/link/586534/presidential-poll-for-the-michigan-general-election

United States Presidential General Election

We ballot-tested the Presidential candidates and we also tested the following two areas of initial campaign impact and awareness: Trusting either of the Presidential candidates to honor their campaign pledges and work to solve Americas problems. Level of understanding of Candidate Romneys platform and policies.

The results will indicate the effect that party conventions had on helping either candidate gain the trust of Michigan voters to follow their pledges to implementation. We were also able to determine if the Republican and Democratic criticism of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryans communications about the details of their plans is effective. As our data outlines, the Democratic convention has helped President Obama more than Romney and Romney /Ryan face a serious a challenge in communicating the details of their policy plans to Michigan voters. Our aggregate findings for this section are as follows:

State-wide Aggregate Results (Weighted to projected age, gender & ethnicity of electorate) 1156 Respondents MOE +/- 2.88% Question 1: The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you more likely to vote for in the election?? (President Barack Obama): (Governor Mitt Romney): (Another candidate): (Undecided): 45.49% 43.65% 5.48% 5.38%

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5%

5%
Barack Obama

46%
Mitt Romney Another Candidate Undecided

44%

Question #3: Since the Republican and Democratic National Conventions and the resulting speeches and interviews for both Presidential candidates, who are you more likely to trust to honor their campaign pledges, work to implement their policies and solve the problems of our country (taxes, the economy, national security and political gridlock)?

(I am more likely to trust President Obama): (I am more likely to trust Mitt Romney): (I am undecided on which candidate to trust): (I dont trust either candidate):

45.10% 42.12% 4.01% 8.78%

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9% 4% 45%

More likely to trust President Obama More likely to trust Mitt Romney Undecided on which candidate to trust I don't trust either candidate

42%

Question #4: Since the Republican National Convention, do you believe that you have a clear understanding of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan plans to lead America and solve the problems of our country (taxes, the economy, national security and political gridlock)?

(Yes): (No): (You are unsure):

51.15% 37.48% 11.37%

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11% 52% 37%

Yes No Unsure

Romney-Ryan have a clear challenge in communications, states Eric Foster, chief pollster. Romney has been campaigning for President since 2007 and only 51.15% of Michigan voters have a clear understanding of his policies and plans for American. Romney must provide more specific details in user friendly and clear language to give people a better sense of how his Presidency would help Michigan voters and America. This might support the creditability gap that Paul Ryan had initially helped close for Romney. It continues to be a problem, stated pollster and political analyst Tarek Baydoun. The past month has helped President Obama gain a trust advantage over Mitt Romney. 45.10% of Michigan voters trust President Obama to follow through on his campaign plans while only 42.12% trust Mitt Romney. This trust advantage has helped President Obama close the gap with Romney among male voters and in the critical major 4 swing counties (Kalamazoo, Macomb, Monroe and Oakland). Romney does however have a trust advantage of over 5 points with White female voters (48.22% more likely to trust Romney and 42.61% more likely to trust Obama). This trust deficit is directly linked to President Obamas tie among female voters in Michigan with Mitt Romney (45.93% Obama versus 46.07% Romney a deficit of 0.14 points). Overall, we have identified the following key trends to watch over the next two months: Female voters Obama has swung from a 5.6 point lead among female voters in June to a deficit of 1.93 points and now he is trailing by 0.14 points, which is a statistical tie. The challenge for Obama is with white female voters. Romney is currently leading among white female voters, 49.41% to 43.63%, 5.48 point lead. This margin has stayed stable during the past three months. President Obama is greatly helped by minority female voters. Obama has a lead of 38.37 points over Romney (Obama 61.63% to Romney 23.26%). Obama will need to either take the lead among white female voters or increase the weight of minority female voters to reestablish his advantage among this critical voting group.
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Foster McCollum White & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

Minority voter turnout per our PVBA model, Michigan election turnout should be 25% minority voters (African American, Latino American, Asian American, Arabic American, Native American and Multi-Racial Americans) In our three polls for Michigans presidential election, our Minority voter participation rate has averaged 15% of the respondent weight in spite of our sample universe being roughly 26% minority. This indicates a possible interest gap among these voting groups. Obama and Democrats need the Minority voter turnout weight to be as close to the 25% historical average to ensure victory in Michigan. Geographic regions President Obama is has moved into a statistical tie among voters in the critical major 4 swing counties, but he has narrowed his deficit from our August poll 12.47 point deficit in August to 1.24 point deficit currently. These counties are critical for both Romney and Obama. The winner of these four counties has the clear advantage to win Michigan. Obama has restored his lead in the Southeastern Michigan region, increasing it by 8.5 points from our August poll (1.44 point lead in August to 9.94 point lead currently). President Obama also has a 7.2 point advantage on the issue of trust in Southeastern Michigan. He needs to increase this margin however to ensure success. Romney must strike in Oakland, Macomb and Monroe to keep Southeastern Michigan within single digits to dampen any advantage Obama gets from this region. Romney has taken the lead among Michigan voters in the Thumb region by 4.59 points (46.79% Romney to 42.20% Obama). The Thumb region is a traditionally solid Democratic region and has a heavy concentration of union households. Obama is underperforming when compared to Senator Stabenow and must retake the lead here to counterbalance Romneys expected victory in the Northern Lower Peninsula region.

United States Senate General Election contest

The Michigan senate seat held by two term Senator Debbie Stabenow is considered either toss up or leaning Democrat by most D.C. pundits and analysis. In our July 28th poll for Fox 2 News, Senator Stabenow had a 52.60% to 42.92% lead (9.68 points) in a head to head matchup against former U.S. Congressman Pete Hoekstra. In our August 16th poll for Fox 2 News, Hoekstra had wiped out the gap and a narrow 2.35 point advantage. Our current poll shows that Senator Stabenow now has a 4.82 point lead over Hoekstra, which is outside of the margin of error. The aggregate results for ballot matchup are listed below:

Question 2: The 2012 United States Senate election will be held in November. Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow faces Republican Congressman Pete Hoekstra; who are you most likely to vote for?

(Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow): (Republican U.S. Congressman Pete Hoekstra): (Another candidate): (Undecided):

46.74% 41.92% 2.90% 8.44%

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8% 3% 47%
Debbie Stabenow Pete Hoekstra Another Candidate Undecided

42%

The findings reflect that Senator Stabenows rebound is tied to the following shifts from our August 16th poll: Voters ages 31 to 50 years old 47.02% Stabenow to 38.69% Hoekstra (shift from 8.00 point deficit in August poll to 8.33 point advantage in current poll, a 16.33 point margin swing) Voters ages 66 and older 45.53% Stabenow to 45.73% Hoekstra (shift from 11.82 point deficit in August poll to 0.2 point deficit in current poll, an 11.62 point margin swing) Oakland County voters - 45.99% Stabenow to 48.18% Hoekstra (shift from 11.28 point deficit in August poll to 2.19 point deficit in current poll, a 9.09 point margin swing) Southwestern Michigan 44.50% Stabenow to 448.71% Hoekstra (shift from 13.38 point deficit in August poll to 4.31 point deficit in current poll, an 9.07 point margin swing) Thumb Region of Michigan 50.46% Stabenow to 34.86% Hoekstra (shift from 1.45 point deficit in August poll to 15.60 point advantage in current poll, an 17.05 point margin swing) Major Swing 4 counties cluster 45.87% Stabenow to 45.87% Hoekstra (shift from 6.63 point deficit in August poll to 0 point tie in current poll, a 6.63 point margin swing) 5th Congressional District 57.58% Stabenow to 25.76% Hoekstra (shift from 3.05 point advantage in August poll to 31.82 point advantage in current poll, an 28.77 point margin swing)

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Our findings suggest that while the swing in these regions has helped Senator Stabenow, the race between the two is still close. Hoekstra made small gains among a number of key cross tab groups and has stayed consistent in the majority of key cross tab groups. Hoekstra is now being hurt by the challenges at the top of the Republican ticket. The Stabenow campaign could and should use its current financial advantage to build firewalls against Hoekstra in key geographical regions of Michigan and widen her advantage statewide without delay. The longer this race stays close, it mirrors the dynamics of Senator Stabenows initial victory in 2000 over then Senator Spencer Abraham. The longer that Senator Abraham didnt move his lead to over 50% and increase his margins in the key Republican voting regions, it allowed Stabenow to build momentum and upset Abraham. Data Summary Our data findings show that Michigan will be a competitive state for both President and U.S. Senate. Obama and Stabenow must go on the offensive now and define why voters need to stay the course and trust their fiscal and economic stewardship of the country. They must also take advantage of the policy communication gap that the Romney campaign has inflicted upon itself. They can and should concentrate on defining Romney and Hoekstra. Mitt Romney and Pete Hoekstra must continue to press their resources aggressively using a sound geographic strategy during the next few weeks to keep the campaigns close until the debates. The debates will provide both candidates a definitive opportunity todemonstrate the contrast and talk to key voter demographics that they must win to win the state. Additionally, both candidates must ramp up their campaign advertising and voter contact programs. Lastly, the campaigns must update their analytics for the November election. Old turnout models and partisan base projections will not help either side connect with voters. The findings show that Michigans voters are more difficult to define then a Democratic or Republican designation might predict. The party that learns that and understands and invests in the related innovative analytics models will succeed.

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Methodology
Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters to determine their voting and issue preferences on the Presidential election, United States Senate and the six statewide ballot proposals and trust and knowledge issues regarding the Presidential campaign. This sixteen question automated poll survey was conducted on September 12, 2012 The population surveyed consisted of a sample of traditional Michigan high participation registered voters and voters that fit Michigan General Election voting patterns. The majority of these voters have participated in a significant majority of the available primary and general election and odd year municipal and county elections in Michigan since their registration. Additionally, our call file does allow for random moderate and low participation voters to be included in the sample. Our call file was randomized to allow for the maximum range of participation and randomization. An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the November General Election. Fifty thousand nine hundred and eighty-six (50,986) calls were placed, and 1,155 respondents fully participated in the survey. The response rate for this survey was 2.27%. Our list-based sample pool was pre-weighted for the gender, ethnicity and age demographics, geographical regions and political participation regions and the congressional districts in Michigan. For reporting purposes, we will focus our findings on the following issue-based categories: A. B. C. D. The baseline for Presidential General Election Preference. The baseline for United State Senate General Election Preference. Voters preference for trusting the Presidential candidates. Voters preference for understanding Candidate Romneys platform and policies. E. The baseline for all six Michigan Statewide ballot proposals. The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.88% with a confidence level of 95%. Our polling study produced sub-populations within each of the surveyed election contest. Results within the sub-populations will be reported with respect to the individual cross-tab and sub-population group as it exist.

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Foster McCollum White & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

Statistical modeling and weighting methodology Our polling call list was weighted to the historical weights for age, gender, race, region and congressional district area. Our list is also comprised of voters with previous voting histories in Presidential, state and local elections. We include the moderate and low performance voters, but the call files do contain a significant portion of voters who have a likely history to participate. We do not call voters who have never participated in elections but are registered. It is difficult to contact people via cell phones is The Telephone Consumer Protection Act (TCPA) (47 U.S.C. 227 , 47 CFR 64.1200) prohibits the use of an automatic telephone dialing system to contact any telephone number assigned to a cellular telephone service without express prior consent from the party being called. Based upon this federal law and the difficulty in procuring call files with parties (voters) who have provided their consent, our call files are comprised of landlines. Our PVBA model reviews election statistics for age, gender, voting participation pattern, gender and socio-economic factors to determine the likely voting universe for an upcoming election. Our turnout models are based on state based historical turnout statistics provided by the municipal and county clerks and secretaries of states office of a state for age, gender, party, ethnicity and voting method (early, absentee, poll location) instead of exit polls. We trust the reliability of the election statistics from the clerks offices to give us value data reads on future elections. For example, Michigan has a historical Presidential participation variance of 18.4% from the baseline voter model and has an -18.08% historical gubernatorial participation variance. The swing is equal to 2.3 million moderate and low performance voters in Michigan for every given Presidential election who primarily leave the participation rolls for the gubernatorial election. The difference between a Governor Snyder and Governor Bernero was the complete absence of the low performance voters and a 15% participation rate among moderate participation voters. If Bernero gets the participation rate of Granholms re-election in 2006 (85% moderate performing voters and 25% low participation voters) He defeats Snyder by 200,000 votes and wins 40 counties. This model allows us to help our political clients understand their election audience more clearly than exit polling. We then use it in assessing our polling models to help us gauge data quality and participation models. The reason we take the historical data for a state is to give us a baseline for each precinct within the state and then build models up from there. We work to identify solid trends of turnout over a series of primary and general election contest so that we can remove outliers within turnout, age, gender, partisan (if collected) and ethnicity and determine the true participation base for that precinct. We can then project out for the variable election conditions (type, advertising impact, voter mobilization, outlier ballot issue impact, etc.) that allow us to determine our high moderate and low performing turnout and voter models. When we call through the list, we report the demographics of the respondents without weight. If our demographics match the likely voter demographics for the polling study, we will report the baseline results as unweighted. If there are underrepresented groups within our aggregate respondent universe, we use our weighting model to adjust for their representative weight and the groups reflected polling preference for the baseline questions. We still will report the un-weighted demographics of our respondents because they reflect the prevailing interest level of the voting groups at the time of our polling survey.

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Foster McCollum White & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

Based on the respondent universes, we made the adjustment weight for the four underrepresented groups in Michigan based on our PVBA model. We have made weighting adjustments to the aggregate baseline responses based on the following four groups who were underrepresented in our aggregate polling respondents: Male respondents 41.56% of actual respondent universe was weighted to reflect the 46% (FMW)B PVBA male voter turnout model projections for 2012 November general election, with a final weighted determinate factor of 45.0% of the aggregate universe. African American respondents 6.75% of actual respondent universe was weighted B to reflect the 17.5% of (FMW) PVBA model projections for 2012 November general election, with a final weighted determinate factor of 17.5% of the aggregate universe.. Voters ages 18 to 30 years old 2.77% of actual respondent universe was weighted B to reflect the 16% of (FMW) PVBA model projections for 2012 November general election, with a final weighted determinate factor of 16.00% of the aggregate universe. Voters ages 31 to 50 years old 14.55% of actual respondent universe was weighted to reflect the 25% of (FMW)B PVBA model projections for 2012 November general election, with a final weighted determinate factor of 25.00% of the aggregate universe.

Cross tabulation groups for comparison purposes

Age (White & Minority ages 51 to 65 and 66 & older sub categories) Gender (White male & Female & Minority Male and Female sub categories) Michigan Geographical Voter Regions Major 17 voting counties (Counties combined that traditionally represent 75% to 83% of the total voter participation rate in Michigans State-wide elections) Next 7 Michigan County and Other 59 Michigan County regions Race/Ethnicity Religious affiliation Evangelical Christian, Catholic, Baptist, Non Evangelical Christian, Jewish, Muslim and other religious affiliations Voter Political Party Preference Democratic, Republican and Independent Michigan Congressional Districts Urban market communities (Detroit, Grand Rapids, Flint, Saginaw and other urban population centers in Michigan)

This poll was commissioned by Fox 2 News Detroit and conducted by Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B and not commissioned on behalf of or by any candidate or political organization.

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Foster McCollum White & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________

Data Analysis Statement

The data has been separated analytically into cross tabulation results that are statistically significant with respect to Michigan General Election cycle statewide Any sectional analysis within the aforementioned categories can be useful when inferring strengths and weaknesses and possible strategy. For the assessment of individual cross tabulation categories, we use a correlation coefficient model based on the Pearson r correlation, also called linear or product- moment correlation. Pearson correlation (hereafter called correlation), assumes that the two variables are measured on at least interval scales and it determines the extent to which values of the two variables are "proportional" to each other. The value of correlation (i.e., correlation coefficient) does not depend on the specific measurement units used. Our proportional model for correlating the statistical relevance of a geographical region, age grouping or congressional district is based on the random proportionality of our respondent pool to the specific proportionality of the groups weight to the aggregate model. The correlation coefficient (r) represents the linear relationship between these two variables (aggregate and cross tabular category). The aggregate Michigan Statewide polling study sample size of 1,155 respondents has a 2.88% margin of error, with a confidence level of 95%. We project that any review of the polling report can allow for the statistical relationship between the aggregate and cross tabulation margin of error for the reported clusters. The poll sample was pre weighted for gender and ethnicity based upon Foster McCollum White Baydoun Predictive Voter Behavior Analysis Model for historic General Election demographics throughout Michigan. This poll was commissioned by Fox 2 News Detroit and conducted by Foster McCollum White Baydoun and not commissioned on behalf of or by any candidate or political organization. We strive to adhere to the principles and standards of the National Council on Public Polls and the American Association for Public Opinion Research in the gathering and reporting of polling data.

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