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Pellegrini2, Gabriela Azevedo3, Anna Paula Fagundes4, Thais Echebarrena5, Adriana Moreira6, Silvia Schaffel7, Natalia Santos8
Copyright 2012, Brazilian Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels Institute - IBP
This Technical Paper was prepared for presentation at the Rio Oil & Gas Expo and Conference 2012, held between September, 1720, 2012, in Rio de Janeiro. This Technical Paper was selected for presentation by the Technical Committee of the event according to the information contained in the final paper submitted by the author(s). The organizers are not supposed to translate or correct the submitted papers. The material as it is presented, does not necessarily represent Brazilian Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels Institute opinion, or that of its Members or Representatives. Authors consent to the publication of this Technical Paper in the Rio Oil & Gas Expo and Conference 2012 Proceedings.
Abstract
The Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) consists of a risk assessment, which considers the probability of components with environmental value (CEV) being reached by oil in case of a spillage. This approach allows it to be a more comprehensive analysis, despite the complexity inherent in the process. Thus, while the operation risk is focused on the operation failure of equipment and implemented procedures, the relative risk to the environment is concerned to the environmental resources in the region and around where the activity will be developed, and which therefore may be impacted. For ERA to be performed is necessary: to calculate the Operational Risk, results from Numerical Oil Modeling, to identify the CEV with their Recovery Period, and to define the probability of particular CEV being reached by an oil volume range. Integrating these types of analyzes is possible to calculate the environmental risk for each volume range and seasonal scenario. Thus, a methodological approach was developed in which, after several analyzes in different regions, were observed improvement opportunities and challenges in studies of Oil and Gas licensing, here presented. More than a new methodology, the ERA is a more comprehensive analysis and advanced tool to support the Environmental Impact Assessment, since it integrates three important areas, so far presented separately during the Licensing Process, within a single indicator or overall tolerability index, which simplifies the process of assessing the viability and risks of a proposed offshore oil and gas project.
1. Introduction
The Environmental Agency of Brazil - IBAMA, in charge of the Licensing Process of Offshore Oil and Gas Exploration and Production activities in the country, has launched in 2009 a new Term of Reference (TOR) requesting an environmental risk assessment. Thus, in order to meet these new requirements, it was developed a study based on the interpretation of the IBAMAs requests. The multidisciplinary team composed by biologists, oceanographers, engineers, as well as risk assessment, modeling and GIS experts has developed four ERAs studies for the Offshore Permitting Processes in Brazilian O&G activities. The lessons learned reflect challenges and opportunities, as mentioned in the next items.
______________________________ 1 Chemical Engineer, M. Sc. - AECOM 2 Oceanographer, D. Sc. - PROOCEANO 3 Biologist, M. Sc. - AECOM 4 Biologist, M. Sc. - PROOCEANO 5 Chemical Engineer - AECOM 6 Biologist, M. Sc. - AECOM 7 Naval Engineer, D. Sc. - AECOM 8 Oceanographer - PROOCEANO
Operational Risk
2.2. Environmental Components and Recovery Period As part from the calculation of the Environmental Risk, is necessary to identify the Components with Environmental Value (CEV) and the establishment of their recovery times. The recovery time is the duration which a CEV, after being reached, leads to recover to levels preceding the oil exposure. The recovery period of each CEV, essential for the calculation of tolerance, is estimated using information available in specialized bibliographies both national and international. According IBAMAs determination in the TOR for Environmental Licensing of Offshore Activities, the CEVs must be defined based on: Have significant presence in the affected area; Be vulnerable to oil pollution/contamination; Fulfill the following criteria: To be relevant (not only economically) for the local community, or To be of national or international interest, or To be ecologically relevant.
Table 1 below presents the classes of recovery periods and its respective consequence categories used in our studies. Table 1. Classes of Recovery Period X Consequence Categories
The CEV can be biological communities and/or ecosystems, giving priority to sensitive ecosystems and communities that have endemic and/or endangered species. Once the CEVs were identified, we carried out the mapping in terms of coverage area, using available information in the literature, organizations and environmental agencies, as well as in the own developed environmental study. The mapping results are used together with the results of the oil modeling for calculating the probability of CEV being reached by oil in each volume range. 2.3. Oil Modeling Results Regarding the oil modeling, one of the main points to be highlighted is the fact that, in studies near the coast, when oil arrives ashore in less than 60 hours, it is necessary to develop studies with higher degrees of refinement and therefore more complex. In these cases, it must be considered the influence of relevant phenomena in coastal environments (tides, for example) whose spatial and temporal scales are completely different from offshore studies. Figure 3 shows a hypothetical case of an offshore spill at Campos Basin. Usually, in this kind of study, a 2.5x2.5 Km grid and 20 minutes of time step are more than fine to represent the spatial and temporal variabilities inherent to the interest region. More refined than these would enhance the computational cost necessary to modeling the case, enlarging the time of elaborating the study.
Figure 3. Oil probability (left panel) and oil arrival time (right panel) on a hypothetical spill at an offshore area of Campos Basin. The models numerical solution in estuary and bays regions, for example, requires, necessarily, that grids of hydrodynamic model need to be as resolute as possible. This aspect represents a challenge, regarding the computational cost X quality of desired results and, again, can impact the time to elaborating the study. Figure 4 presents a hypothetic case of an oil spill at Guanabara Bay, where the grid and the time step of the model were adjusted to represent all the coastal variabilities.
Figure 4. Hypothetical case of a spill on Guanabara Bay showing the grid used (left panel) and the oil probability result (right panel). In red on the right panel is the CEV Mangrove. 2.4. Integration of the 3 Pillars: Environmental Risk One of the most challenging points of the methodology is the correlation and integration of its 3 pillars: Operational Risk, Mathematical Modeling and Environmental Resources (Environmental Components and Recovery Period). The integration of these areas provide the necessary information for the environmental risk assessment approach, which will lead to the tolerability index, goal of the ERA study. The Environmental Risk (ERcomp(x)) is the risk of a Component with Environmental Value (CEV) to be reached within a specific volume range. 4
So, the ERcomp(x) = Ftotal-y x Prob(x), where F is the overall frequency of the accidental scenarios in volume range y; Prob(x) is the overall probability of oil reaching CEV-x for a certain volume range and season; and y is the volume range. After the calculation of the Environmental Risk, the next step is to determine if the risk value is considered tolerable, or if the recovery time of CEV is negligible compared to the recurrence time of damage. Thus, the presence of a particular enterprise can be considered tolerable, if a recovery time of the environmental component has duration insignificant compared to the expected recurrence period of damage. The tolerability of risk can be understood as a limit in which risks are acceptable. In the event of intolerable risk the procedures and facilities that originated the framework of risks and accidental scenarios will be reviewed and new calculations will be performed.
Rio Oil & Gas Expo and Conference 2012 population size before. In addition, it is necessary to have information after the spill, such as: how many individuals are left? It is extremely important to perform further base studies so that it is possible to appropriately establish values of recovery time. In addition, further studies on oil impact must be made with species usually found in the Brazilian coast. While such information is not available, we use international studies performed and it is estimated rather conservative values for communities and ecosystems likely to be impacted. The Components with Environmental Value identified in the ERAs developed were: coral reefs, beaches, mangroves, marine mammals, sea turtles, fishing resources and sea birds. 3.3. Oil Modeling Deliverables Regarding the oil modeling, the most challenging aspect lays on the hydrodynamic model. The grid resolution needs to be as much resolute as possible to represent all the variabilities - temporal and spatial - present in the study area. Nevertheless, it is always necessary to take into account the computational cost X quality of desired results. Particularly in offshore studies, the enhanced accuracy of results for coastal regions can lead to better subsidies for Individual Emergency Plan, for example. Finally, Tables 2 and 3 summarizes the challenges faced and opportunities that could emerge due to the development of the ERAs. Table 2. Challenges of each ERA Pillar
ERA Pillars
Operational Risk
Challenges a) Turn the drilling/production unit systems closest to the reality of the operating unit, instead of adopting generic concepts; b) Lack of specific databases for failure rates to offshore processes (many are obtained from generic databases applicable to industrial facilities). c) Higher degrees of refinement/complexity of oil modeling for oil arrives ashore in less than 60 hours (spatial and temporal scales are completely different from offshore studies); d) Computational cost X quality of desired results X time for elaboration the study. e) Establishment of the recovery time of the CEVs; f) Establish when a community or an ecosystem can be considered recovered; g) Lack of previous studies and of biology of the species that live in the area that could be potentially impacted so that it is possible to appropriately establish values of recovery time; h) Lack of studies on oil impact made with species usually found in the Brazilian coast (international studies have been used and it is estimated rather conservative values for communities and ecosystems likely to be impacted).
Rio Oil & Gas Expo and Conference 2012 Table 3. Opportunities for each ERA Pillar
ERA Pillars a)
Operational Risk
b)
c)
i) j)
Opportunities Connect the results for the Risk Assessment to the environmental resources in the region and around where the activity will be developed; Allow the operators to identify critical systems inside the units which may be changed adding safeguards, for example, in order to help the decrease of risk value. Particularly in offshore studies, the enhanced accuracy of results for coastal regions can lead to better subsidies for Individual Emergency Plan, for example. Promotion of studies of biology of the species that live in the area that could be potentially impacted; Promotion of studies on oil impact made with species usually found in the Brazilian coast.
4. Conclusion
The ERA is a methodology that correlates three important areas of environmental impact assessments (Operational Risk, Mathematical Modeling and Environmental Resources) answering directly on the viability of the enterprise, not only regarding operational safety (scope of traditional risk analysis), but also in relation to the environmental risk of the enterprise area. Considering the issues raised in this work we can say that there are uncertainties involved in the process, in terms of basic information of these three areas, which should be minimized so that the results be closer to the reality. For this happen, every step of the methodology should be carefully observed and a closer relationship between the operator, consultants and competent public agencies should be searched to obtain better results. This paper presented challenges and opportunities regarding the key steps of the ERA development: the calculation of the operational risk, mathematical modeling and environmental resources (Environmental Components and Recovery Period), summarized in the items above. Finally, the Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) consists of an innovative methodology for oil and gas permitting and licensing in Brazil developed addressing new requirements for offshore permitting and licensing of oil and gas exploration and production operations established by the Environmental Agency of Brazil (IBAMA). But more than a new methodology, it is a more comprehensive analysis and advanced tool to support the Environmental Impact Assessment, since it integrates three important areas of Environmental Impact Assessment studies: Operational Risk, Mathematical Modeling and Environmental Resources within a single indicator or overall tolerability index, which simplifies the process of assessing the viability and risks of a proposed offshore oil & gas project.
6. References
CONAMA No. 398/2008 Resolution.