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Complex
02 October 2012

Coverage
Comprehensive Information on Complex Crises

INSIDE THIS ISSUE

Iraq Mali Syria IED & Demining 1 2 3 4

This document provides complex coverage of global events, with hyper-links to source material highlighted in blue and underlined in the text. For more information on the topics below or other issues pertaining to events in the region, contact the members of the Complex Coverage Team, or visit our website at www.cimicweb.org.

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Iraq

Linda Lavender linda.lavender@cimicweb.org

CFC publications are independently produced by Desk Officers and do not reflect NATO policies or positions of any other organisation.
The CFC is part of NATO Allied Command Operations.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki declined an invitation from Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to visit Ankara, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). Over the past six months, the countrys leaders have traded heated rhetoric in a growing diplomatic feud that has negatively impacted relations and regional ties. In other diplomatic events, all Iranian planes bound for Syria will now be subject to random inspections by Iraqi officials, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL). The new procedure comes after US officials raised concerns over the contents of the Iranian cargo being transported through Iraqi airspace; asserting that any flights carrying weapons to Syria would violate UN Security Council resolutions. Al Qaeda members successfully escaped from a Tikrit prison after militants dressed in police uniforms infiltrated the facility on 28 September, reports Reuters. According to AFP, 15 policemen and seven inmates were killed in the prison break while approximately 100 prisoners escaped. RFE/RL reports that an investigation into the events revealed that the prison break was an inside job with collusion between some guards and inmates at the facility. In other security news, AFP reported on 26 September that a roadside bomb targeting Iraqi police killed one senior police officer while wounding two others and a civilian in Hilla, south of Baghdad. On the same day, an Iraqi police officer was killed and another wounded at a checkpoint north of Baghdad. Earlier in the week, a wave of attacks against security forces left nine police officers dead and eleven more wounded, according to RFE/RL. On 30 September, the Associated Press (AP) reported coordinated bombings stretching from Kirkuk in the north to Kut in southern Iraq killing 26 people and wounding at least 94 others. The attacks occurred in largely Shiite neighbourhoods and were described as a rallying call by al Qaeda in Iraq.

CONTACT THE CFC

For further information, contact: Complex Coverage Team Leader Linda Lavender linda.lavender@cimicweb.org Complex Coverage Desk Officer Angelia Sanders angelia.sanders@cimicweb.org

The New York Times (NYT) suggests that the Syrian conflict is testing Iraqs fragile democracy and civil society, heightening sectarian tensions and highlighting security gaps in Iraq. In Anbar province, located along the Syrian border in western Iraq, tribal leaders report that Sunni insurgents in Iraq have attempted to collaborate with Syrian rebels to spark a larger, regional sectarian war. An al Qaedabacked group called the Free Iraqi Army (FIA) mimics the banner under which Syrian rebels are fighting. Also, Syrian Kurds training in Iraqi Kurdistan are preparing for the fight they anticipate will occur after the fall of the Assad regime, reports the NYT. Many Syrian Kurds want to expand the Iraqi autonomous Kurdish region into Syria, hoping to fulfil a centuries-old dream of linking the Kurdish minorities in Iraq, Turkey and Iran into an independent nation. Iraqi Kurds are providing the haven, training and arms for the Syrian militia that would then be equipped to secure the Kurdish regions of Syria in the subsequent power vacuum after Assads fall. The training and arming of Syrian Kurds adds an additional layer of complexity to the Syrian conflict and suggests that Assads fall would not lead to peace, but could instead lead to sectarian conflict in the region.

Kurdish Inhabited Regions

Source: Kurdish resources

Lawmaker Muqdad al Shuraifi has been named the ninth and final member of the new Iraqi election commission, according to the Associated Press (AP). The Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) is considered to be one of Iraqs most influential institutions and is in charge of the upcoming 2013 and 2014 provincial and general elections. Earlier in September 2012, parliament approved the other eight members of the commission. It is widely anticipated that voting in these elections will occur against the backdrop of intense political struggles among Iraqs diverse ethnic and religious groups.

Mali

Angelia Sanders angelia.sanders@cimicweb.org

A special UN session on Mali was held on 26 September to discuss the on-going crisis. France, Mali and some of Mali's neighbours seek a military intervention, while the United States believes a democratically elected government must be established before military intervention in order to create legitimacy for a negotiated political settlement and future implementation of rule of law in the North. French President Francois Hollande urged the international community to support a possible UN Security Council resolution backing a West African-led military intervention in Mali, reports News 24, calling the situation in UN members meet over the Mali crisis on the sidelines of the annual UN Mali unbearable and unacceptable. France has stated that it General Assembly. would not directly send troops to Mali but has promised to provide logistical support and to share intelligence as part of a Source: Reporter 365 future intervention. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said that Mali has asked the UN to approve an immediate mandate for an international force under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter in order to help the Malian army to reconquer the occupied areas of northern Mali, reports Reuters. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has 3,300 regional troops on standby but seek UN approval before deployment to Mali. African Union Security Commissioner Ramtane Lamamral told Reuters that Mali's interim leaders are capable of commanding a regional military effort to combat Islamist militants controlling the north of the country. Following the 22 March military coup, the separatist Tuareg National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) and Islamist groups took control of northern Mali and claimed independence for the region; however, the Islamists quickly took over the rebellion and forced the MNLA out, reports Agence France Press (AFP). The MNLA seeks a secular independent region of Azawad (northern Mali), while Islamists seek the application of Sharia law throughout all of Mali. The MNLA has threatened that, if the Malian government does not initiate open dialogue, then they would join with the Islamist groups currently controlling the North. Human Rights Watch (HRW) reports that the three Islamist armed groups controlling northern Mali (Ansar Dine, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)) have recruited several hundred children into their forces; carried out executions, floggings, and at least eight amputations as punishment; and systematically destroyed numerous religious shrines of cultural and religious importance. The groups have become increasingly repressive as they have tightened their grip over northern Mali. HRW has reported that the groups appear to be closely coordinating with each other and according to witnesses, the majority of their commanders were non-Malian, and came from Algeria, Chad, Mauritania, Senegal, Tunisia and Western Sahara. Agence France Presse (AFP) reports that AQIM is the dominant force in the region and the common thread loosely binding the groups. Reports indicate that the three rebel groups have divided their ter02 October 2012 Page 2

ritory into several separate fiefdoms. The northwest region of Timbuktu is led by a top AQIM boss from Algeria. Gao, to the east, is controlled by MUJAO but is still under the de facto leadership of another Algerian AQIM leader. Kidal, north of Gao, is run by the founder of Ansar Dine, Iyad Ag Ghaly. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reports that more than 1.63 million people have been affected by the conflict in northern Mali. According to UNHCR there are over 274,600 Malian refugees and more than 186,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs). Current relief operations focus on the delivery of food and medical assistance, reports Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN). Oxfam has warned that any military action needs to be carefully planned so it does not cause more suffering to Malian civilians. Insecurity in the region has limited many humanitarian efforts to some parts of the North. Remote community health centres are experiencing critical health and nutrition situations because of their inaccessibility as compared to hospitals in town centres. One third of the population is in need of basic health care and 94% of health centres in northern Mali are not operational. As a result, there is a need for NGOs to re-start mobile operations in order to reach vulnerable communities in outlying areas. The fighting in the North is taking place against the backdrop of a food crisis in the Sahel. Within Mali, there are 4.6 million people who are classified as being at risk of food insecurity due to the food and nutrition crisis and the conflict in the North. Within the South, 2.97 million people live in drought-affected areas and 1.84 of these people are at risk of severe food insecurity. As of 25 September, donors have provided USD 100.4 million to the crisis in Mali; 47% of the USD 213.8 million required to meet the demands.

Syria

Linda Lavender linda.lavender@cimicweb.org

Addressing the UN General Assembly on 25 September, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon demanded that international action be taken to stop the war in Syria, stating that the conflict is a regional calamity with global ramifications, according to al Jazeera. The UN Human Rights Council extended its mandate of war crimes investigations in Syria by an additional six months, reports Reuters. Of the 47-member council, 41 states voted in favour of extending the mandate while China, Cuba and Russia voted against the extension and three other states abstained. Syrias ambassador reacted to the announcement by stating that the decision is highly-politicized and selective and accused Islamic terrorists of fuelling violence in Syria. In other UN news, UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) predicted that by the end of the year, the number of Syrian refugees fleeing unrest in Syria could reach 700,000 or 3% of the countrys population. UN agencies, in conjunction with aid organisations, issued a revised appeal for USD 488 million to assist the Syrian refugees. The UNHCR-led Regional Response Plan is significantly underfunded with a mere USD 142 million, or 29% received to date. The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood (SMB) signalled that the organisation would favour an Arab-led military intervention in Syria over a broader international intervention, reports Reuters. Citing Iran and Hezbollahs support of the Assad regime, Deputy Head of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood Ali al Bayanouny asserted that foreign intervention was already present in the conflict but indicated that he was not certain that other Arab nations would step forward to help opposition groups fighting against Assad. On 29 September, Saif Abdel Fattah, advisor to Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, stated that the Egyptian government was reviewing a Qatari proposal for Arab military action in Syria. Fattah Death Toll in Syria (as of 29 Sep 12) indicated that the Egyptian government supported an Arab intervention which outlined clear goals, and objectives. Reuters also noted that Egyptian officials were prepared to pressure Turkey to implement the Qatari proposal and the prospect of military intervention would be an important agenda item in meetings with Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan on 30 September. On 01 October, Yemens defence minister denied that five Yemeni military officers captured and held by opposition rebels in Syria were sent to Syria to fight with government forces, reports BBC. According to Yemeni officials, the officers had travelled to Syria to study at the Assad Military Academy in Aleppo two years earlier and were not aiding Assad forces despite claims to the contrary by al Nusra Front, an Islamic Syrian rebel group. Meanwhile, CNN reported on 29 September that US Source: Syrian Revolution Martyr Database as of 29 Sep 2012 Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned Iran to stop providing weapons to the Assad government even as the United States announced additional non-lethal assistance to the Syrian opposition which included 1,100 sets of communications equipment, satellite-linked computers, telephones, cameras and the training of 1,000 activists, students and journalists. Mortar rounds fired from Syria landed in an orchard in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on 25 September without causing damage or injury, according to Reuters. Israeli officials responded to the incident by filing a complaint with the UN observer force that monitors the truce between Israel and Syria. Two explosions struck the General Staff Command Building in central 02 October 2012 Page 3

Damascus on 26 September in a precursor to an armed attack on the military complex, according to NYT. Reports of casualties from the attack varied. State news agencies reported four guards were killed and 14 others wounded while witnesses reported seeing dead guards, soldiers and rebel fighters. Both the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Islamist group Tajamo Ansar al Islam claimed responsibility for the attack. Fighting in Aleppo intensified on 28 September as rebel forces launched a new offensive to drive Assads forces out of the countrys largest city, according to AP. Strategically, the capture of Aleppo by the opposition would give rebels a vital stronghold in northern Syria. A suicide bomb exploded in the Kurdish region of Syria, which until now has largely been left untouched in the nineteen- month long conflict, according to al Jazeera. The Kurdish city of Qamishli was attacked, killing four people on 30 September. Kurds, who comprise Syrias largest minority, have been divided in their loyalties largely due to their concerns over possible mistreatment in a post-Assad Syria. Finally, intelligence reports confirm that the Syrian government has moved chemical weapons multiple times over the duration of the conflict in order to better secure the stockpiles, according to AP. According to United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) up to five of Syrias six world heritage sites have been damaged by the conflict, reports Reuters. The most recent damage occurred in Aleppos fourteenth century historic market as intense fighting between opposition and government forces resulted in widespread fires in the district that destroyed at least 1,500 shops. Finally, the Telegraph reports that President Bashar al Assad, in exchange for information on the location of dictator Moammar Gaddafi, was assured a grace period from French officials and less political pressure on the regime during last years Libyan uprising. In efforts to deflect growing international attention on the repression taking place in Syria, Assad offered France the cell phone number of the Libyan dictator which was used to trace his location.

IED & Demining

The CFC now publishes a weekly IED and Demining Events map. This global compilation identifies and links to articles pertaining to IED events as well as demining efforts. On 21 September, Army Lt. General Michael D. Barbero told the US House Appropriations Committees defense subcommittee that the threat posed by crude homemade bombs (IEDs) is growing and spreading. Experts suggest that the IED will be the terrorists weapon of choice for decades because they are inexpensive and readily available. IEDs were the number one cause of death for American troops in Iraq and the trend continues in Afghanistan. IED events continue to rise in Afghanistan by 42% in the past two years according to Barbero. In 2009 there were 9,300 IED events while in 2011, over 16,000 events were recorded.

Linda Lavender linda.lavender@cimicweb.org

Meanwhile, Dawn, a Pakistani news source, reports that the psychological pressure on those tasked to dispose of IEDs, landmines and bombs is immense. On a daily basis, the bomb disposal squad in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which has been the worst-hit province in Pakistans struggle against militancy, has operated with competence and professionalism in spite of eight squad members being killed out of a squad of forty.

Syrian Opposition

IRAQ Complex Coverage

MALI Complex Coverage

SYRIA Complex Coverage

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02 October 2012

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