Friday, 05 October, 2012

5 Day Statewide Weather Outlook

No Threat
Lightning
North FL (Fri-Sat) Central and South FL (Fri-Sun)

Low Threat
Damaging Wind/ Hail
Peninsula (FriSun)

Moderate Threat
Excessive Heat Wildfire
Statewide

High Threat
Tropical Rip Currents
Atlantic Coast Panhandle Coast Gulf Coast

Flooding
Northeast and East Central FL (Fri)

Tornado

Sunday Night Lows (Left) And Monday High Temperatures (Right) (Click to Update and Expand)

Frontal Passage on Saturday Night (Click to Update and Expand)

Forecast Total Rainfall Amounts for Friday Through Tuesday

Cold Front to Bring Cooler Temperatures and Drier Conditions Across the Sunshine State Scattered Showers and Storms Possible Ahead of the FrontSome Storms may be Strong with Gusty Winds, Frequent Lighting and Heavy Rain Tropics Become Quiet as Oscar Dissipates Elevated Risk of Rip Currents for East Coast Beaches.
FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 10.05.12

Friday-Saturday: A weak frontal boundary is currently draped over portions of the Florida Panhandle, but this front is expected to weaken and dissipate as it moves toward Central Florida. Ahead of the front, very moist air will help for scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop along the sea breeze. Behind the front, rain chances will generally be lower as a weak high pressure system exerts itself over the area. In all, a 30%-60% chance for rain exists across the Florida Big Bend and Peninsula while a 20% chance of rain exists across the Panhandle. For tomorrow, a cold front in which has brought significantly colder weather to areas of the Midwest will approach North Florida. This frontal passage will likely bring little in way of rain across the western portions of the Florida Panhandle, but a 20%-30% chance of showers and storms will be possible across the rest of North Florida. This frontal system will also produce a 40% chance of showers and storms across Central and South Florida. Severe weather is generally not anticipated, but a few isolated storms may become strong, especially across the Peninsula. The main threats associated with these storms will be frequent lightning and gusty winds. Locally heavy rainfall may cause water to collect over roadways or low-lying areas that are generally flood-prone. When its not raining, the sun will peek through partly to mostly cloudy skies throughout the day. The dissipating frontal boundary, as well as the abundant sunshine, will keep temperatures in the mid 80s across North Florida while afternoon highs across Central and South Florida will be in the upper 80s.Temperatures are forecast to rebound tomorrow before the cold front passes. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s are expected statewide. Overnight lows will remain rather warm as well for the Peninsula with temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A few spots across Southeast Florida, however, will see temperatures only descend into the upper 70s. Meanwhile, overnight low temperatures will dip into the low 60s across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend each night. This is due to the dissipating frontal boundary tonight, and the expected cold front tomorrow night. Shower activity may persist through the overnight hours tonight with around a 20-40% chance of rain over the Big Bend and Florida Peninsula through tomorrow morning. In addition, depending on the rainfall, some patchy fog will be possible across North Florida. For tomorrow night, the frontal boundary will likely have passed through the Florida Panhandle which will decrease the potential for any rain or fog. Sunday-Tuesday: The moist air over the Peninsula will shift over South Florida and into the Florida Straits as the cold front pushes into Central Florida. This cold front will bring high pressure and drier air in behind the front. As a result, North Florida can expect a 10-20% chance of rain each day. As the front pushes through Central and South Florida on Monday, rain chances will decrease from 30-40% (which is expected on Sunday) to about 10%-20%. These decreased rain chances will persist through Tuesday as well. Again, severe weather is generally not anticipated, but a few isolated storms may become strong, especially across the Peninsula. The main threats associated with these storms will be frequent lightning and gusty winds. Locally heavy rainfall may cause water to collect over roadways or low-lying areas that are generally flood-prone. The Panhandle, however, will continue to dry out with mostly sunny skies. Despite the passage of this cold front, afternoon highs will remain rather warm each day with temperatures rising to the upper 80s across the Peninsula. For the Panhandle, the effects may be a bit more pronounced. High temperatures are only expected to reach the low 80s.
FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 10.05.12

Overnight low temperatures, on the other hand, will dramatically be reduced. Although the Peninsula can expect temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s each night, Sunday will bring temperatures in the mid-to-upper 50s and low 60s across the Florida Panhandle. These temperatures will recover slightly on Monday and Tuesday, but they are still expected to remain in the low to mid 60s each night.
NWS Mobile Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Tallahassee Daily Graphical Hazards

NWS Jacksonville Daily Hazards NWS Melbourne Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Tampa Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Miami Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Key West Daily Hazards Current Watches, Warnings, and Advisories Listed By County Rip Currents: Persistent easterly winds and ocean waves will continue throughout the weekend. These swells will create a moderate rip current risk along Atlantic Coast beaches from the Florida and Georgia Border through Martin County. This rip current risk is expected to persist through Tuesday. The Florida Gulf Coast, however, will likely see a low rip current risk for the next 5 days. Anyone who plans to enter the water should check their local rip current forecast before going to their beach destination. Everyone should always remember that the safest beaches are the ones protected by lifeguards. Daily surf zone and rip current forecasts for all Florida beaches. Drought & Fire Weather: Recent rainfall accumulations as well as current rain chances will keep the fire risk across Florida at low levels for the next 5 days. In addition, our drought conditions have diminished statewide. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, Florida is 100% drought-free! Seasonable rainfall accumulations are expected to keep Florida from reentering a long term drought for the next 3 months. Although long term droughts have been eradicated, short term drought values, as provided by the Keetch-Bryam Drought Index, are increasing every day there is little to no rain. Tropics: As of 11am EDT Friday, Oscar lost it tropical characteristics and its remnants are now being absorbed by a cold front in the open Atlantic Ocean. Maximum sustained winds are at 40 miles an hour and it is moving toward the northeast at 17 mph. The remnants of Oscar are not expected to impact Florida. Otherwise, the tropics are forecast to remain quiet for the next 5 days. More information from the National Hurricane Center can be found here. Florida NCAA Division 1 Football Forecast FIU and UCF have already played.
FAU Bye Week Saturday October 6, 2012 USF @ Temple in Philadelphia, PA
FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 10.05.12

Kickoff 12:00pm ET

Temperatures will remain a steady 73 throughout the entire game in the City of Brotherly Love. Rain chances will jump from about 10% at the beginning to about 20% by half time. The game will take place under partly cloudy skies, and winds will be from the east between 10-15 mph. FAMU @ Howard in Washington, DC Kickoff 1:00pm ET It will be a decent day for football at the Capital City with temperatures staying near 76 throughout the entire game. A 20% chance for scattered showers will accompany mostly cloudy skies. Westerly winds will shift to become northwesterly by the conclusion and will range from 10-15 mph. UF vs. LSU in Gainesville, FL Kickoff 3:30pm ET It will be hot and muggy in the Swamp this weekend, as temperatures start out at 86 before falling to about 80 by the whistle. Heat index values, however, will be near 90 through the first half. A 30% chance for scattered showers and storms is expected to accompany partly to mostly cloudy skies. Wins will be light and stay out of the north. Bethune Cookman vs. North Carolina A&T in Daytona Beach, FL Kickoff 4:00pm ET Temperatures will start out at 85at kickoff and fall to about 82 by the conclusion of the game. Heat index values are forecast to reach 91 at the start of the game and decrease to about 87 by the games end. A 40% chance of scattered showers and storms will accompany partly to mostly cloudy skies, and winds will stay out of the northeast between 5 and 10 mph. UM @ Notre Dame in Chicago, IL Kickoff 7:30pm ET A rather chilly game is forecast to take place in the Windy City. Temperatures will start at 50 and drop to about 47 by the end of the game, but winds out of the northwest at 11mph will make it feel closer to the low 40s. Although a few lake effect showers will be possible, the chance for rain will remain about 10% as Soldier Field lies beneath mostly cloudy skies. FSU @ NC State in Raleigh, NC Kickoff 8:00pm ET Temperatures will be on the decline from 70 at kickoff to about 64 at the final whistle. Although conditions will start off with partly cloudy skies, cloud cover is forecast gradually increase to mostly cloudy conditions. Despite the increase in cloud cover, only a 10% chance of showers is anticipated tomorrow. Winds will switch from the west at 3 mph to about 9 mph out of the north.

For the official National Weather Service forecast, please click on the following cities:
Pensacola Panama City Tallahassee Gainesville Jacksonville Daytona Beach Orlando Tampa Fort Myers West Palm Beach Miami Key West Click here for the latest watches, warnings, and advisories from The National Weather Service For coastal and offshore forecasts throughout Florida and Georgia, please click here.

Have a great Columbus Day weekend! Bradley Schaaf, Meteorologist State Meteorological Support Unit Florida Division of Emergency Management www.FloridaDisaster.org www.KidsGetAPlan.com

FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 10.05.12