John Graunt John Graunt (1620-1674) was an English statistician, generally considered to be the founder of the science of demographythe

statistical study of human populations. His analysis of the vital statistics of the London populace greatly influenced the innovative demographic work of his good friend Sir William Petty and other prominent figures such as Edmond Halley, the astronomer royal. A prosperous haberdasher until his business was destroyed in the London fire of 1666, Graunt held municipal offices and a militia command. While still active as a merchant, he began to study the death records known as the Bills of Mortality that had been kept by London parishes since 1532. Noticing that certain phenomena of death statistics appeared regularly, he was inspired to write a book titled Natural and Political Observations mentioned in a following index, and made upon the Bills of Mortality With reference to the Government, Religion, Trade, Growth, Ayre, diseases, and the several Changes of the said City in the year 1662. Graunt produced four editions of this work. The third edition was published by the prestigious Royal Society of London in 1665, of which Graunt became a charter member. Through the classification of death rates and the creation of his famous life tables, Graunt predicted local mortality rates and calculated the associated economic loss.

Sir William Petty Sir William Petty (1623-1687) was an English political economist, statistician, and physician most notable for his 1662 Treatise of Taxes and Contributions on political economics. Although he was born to lower middle class parents in Romsey, England, Petty later studied medicine at the Universities of Leiden, Paris, and Oxford. He was sequentially a physician, a professor of anatomy at Oxford, a professor of music in London, inventor, surveyor and landowner in Ireland, and a member of Parliament. Before his work on demographics with Graunt, Pettys 1654 survey of the Irish estates appropriated by Oliver Cromwell was the first attempt at scientific surveying on a large scale; Pettys work as physician general and surveyor won favor with Englands reigning monarch. Petty had become a knight of the realm in 1661 under Charles II, and he was a founding member of the Royal Society. In terms of his methods, Petty is considered to be the first British economist to employ a comprehensively statistical approach, believing that precise reasoning and accurate conclusions could be reached only by quantitative analysis. Petty produced informed calculations relating to numerous economic and social phenomena, assisting with John Graunts Natural and Political Observations on the London bills of mortality. His contributions are now deemed to be a seminal work of statistics and a pioneering exercise in historical demography.

Methodology John Graunts seminal work, Natural and Political Observations, published in 1662, is given credit for beginning the idea that vital statistics, such as christenings and burials, could be used not only to keep records but to construct life tables for the entire population. Although it was Graunt's only scientific work, Natural and Political Observations set a standard for record keeping that exists today. Modern-day epidemiologists and public health officials incorporate the clarity and brevity of his observations in their work, and test all theories before publishing them. Graunts comprehensiveness was unparalleled at the time of his publications; for instance, he used five different ways to arrive at an estimation of the population of London. Furthermore, modern epidemiologists invite criticism as well as revisions of data and avoid being overly concerned with including only data that is statistically significant, which may result in important data being overlooked. Sir William Pettys efforts were essential in the application of measurement, statistics, and mathematics to socioeconomic and demographic phenomena. As a physician, Petty related his knowledge of health and disease to these phenomena in what in the modern context would be called human ecology or social epidemiology. These relationships and their measurement were employed to establish an objective set of data which could be analyzed for the purpose of rational public policy planning by the state. Like his colleague Graunt, the scientific approach to public policy placed Petty in the context of modern public health practices and marked the instigation of a major use of the epidemiologic method.

Shared Techniques Along with maintaining comprehensive statistical records compiled from the London bills of mortality, John Graunt added to the store of human knowledge in the field of demographics. Graunt was the first to identify the human sex ratio, specifically the occurrence of more male than female births. He also noted that because the male death rate was higher, the population count among the sexes was about equal. Graunts demographic statistics helped to monitor disease trends during a plague epidemic in London, also accounting for an influx of immigrants. Moreover, Graunt classified death rates according to causes including factors such as overpopulation, observing that death rates in the cities were higher than in rural areas. Perhaps Graunt's most important contribution was the introduction of his life tables. Through these compiled tabled, Graunt predicted the life expectancy of the population year by year and the percentage of people who would live to each successive age. His colleague Sir William Petty later was able to use these death rates in estimates of the economic losses that such deaths exact upon a community. Pettys extension of Graunts work was aided by his experience as a surveyor in Ireland. Graunt is recognized today as having laid the foundations of the science of statistics. His work ultimately led to the universal registration of births, marriages, and causes of death for governmental purposes.

Graunts Observations established early human statistical and census methods that later provided a framework for modern demography. This work focused almost entirely on public health statistics, utilizing analysis of published mortality rolls to draw conclusions for elements such as life expectancy.

This detail from John Graunt's Natural and Political Observations displays a compilation of causes of death in 17th-century London.

With the assistance of Sir William Petty, John Graunt constructed life tables similar to the one above detailing mortality rates and life expectancy in a specific population.

Sir William Pettys position as a surveyor for Ireland became useful in visually representing demographic data and statistics.

Graunt gathered raw information for later demographic and statistical analysis through public documents such as the London bills of mortality.

References Aldrich, J. (2011, July 13). Life and work of statisticians. Retrieved from http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/images/northampton.gif Banta, J. E. (1987). Sir William Petty: Modern Epidemiologist. National Center for Biotechnology Information. Retrieved from http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3305597 Cohen, J. (2011, December 5). 17th-century londoners died of fright, itch and grief. Retrieved from http://www.history.com/news/17th-century-londoners-died-of-fright-itch-and-grief Fox, A. (n.d.). Sir william petty, ireland, and the making of a political economist. Retrieved from http://www.shca.ed.ac.uk/staff/supporting_files/apfox/fox-pub1.pdf Greenberg, S. J. (1997). The Dreadful Visitation: Public Health and Public Awareness in Seventeenth-century London. National Center for Biotechnology Information. Retrieved from http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9431429 Ireland maps. (2009). Retrieved from http://www.map-print.net/ireland.htm John Graunt. (2004). In Encyclopedia of World Biography. Retrieved from http://www.encyclopedia.com/topic/John_Graunt.aspx John Graunt. (2012). In Encyclopdia Britannica. Retrieved from http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/242312/John-Graunt Seneta, E. W. (n.d.). John graunt. Retrieved from http://statprob.com/encyclopedia/JohnGRAUNT.html

Sir William Petty. (2012). In Encyclopdia Britannica. Retrieved from http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/454631/Sir-William-Petty Tabak, J. (2011). Retrieved from http://www.stat.rice.edu/stat/FACULTY/courses/stat431/Graunt.pdf Westfall, R. S. (1995). The galileo project. Retrieved from http://galileo.rice.edu/Catalog/NewFiles/graunt.html

References

Aldrich, J. (2011, July 13). Life and work of statisticians. Retrieved from http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/images/northampton.gif

Banta, J. E. (1987). Sir William Petty: Modern Epidemiologist. National Center for Biotechnology Information. Retrieved from http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3305597

Cohen, J. (2011, December 5). 17th-century londoners died of fright, itch and grief. Retrieved from http://www.history.com/news/17th-century-londoners-died-of-fright-itch-and-grief

Fox, A. (n.d.). Sir william petty, ireland, and the making of a political economist. Retrieved from http://www.shca.ed.ac.uk/staff/supporting_files/apfox/fox-pub1.pdf

Greenberg, S. J. (1997). The Dreadful Visitation: Public Health and Public Awareness in Seventeenth-century London. National Center for Biotechnology Information. Retrieved from http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9431429 Ireland maps. (2009). Retrieved from http://www.map-print.net/ireland.htm

John Graunt. (2004). In Encyclopedia of World Biography. Retrieved from http://www.encyclopedia.com/topic/John_Graunt.aspx

John Graunt. (2012). In Encyclopdia Britannica. Retrieved from http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/242312/John-Graunt

Seneta, E. W. (n.d.). John graunt. Retrieved from http://statprob.com/encyclopedia/JohnGRAUNT.html

Sir William Petty. (2012). In Encyclopdia Britannica. Retrieved from http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/454631/Sir-William-Petty

Tabak, J. (2011). Retrieved from http://www.stat.rice.edu/stat/FACULTY/courses/stat431/Graunt.pdf

Westfall, R. S. (1995). The galileo project. Retrieved from http://galileo.rice.edu/Catalog/NewFiles/graunt.html