WHAT IS MATHEMATICAL MODELING? MODEL: A miniature representation of something. A description or analogy used to help visualize something (e.g.

an atom) that ca nnot be directly observed. There are many ways in which devices and behaviors can be described. We can use words, drawings or sketches, physical models, computer programs, or mathematic al formulas. We are interested in using the language of mathematics to make models. MATHEMATICAL MODEL: A representation in mathematical terms of the behavior of re al devices and objects. The dictionary defines simulate as simply to give an appearance of. To the engineer or analyst simulation involves the utilization of a model to obt ain some insight into the behavior of a physical process. In the oil and gas industry, reservoir modeling involves the construction of a c omputer model of a petroleum reservoir, for the purposes of improving estimation of reserves and making decisions regarding the development of the field. A reservoir model represents the physical space of the reservoir by an array of discrete cells, delineated by a grid which may be regular or irregular. The arra y of cells is usually three dimensional, although 1D and 2D models are sometimes used. Values for attributes such as porosity, permeability and water saturation are associated with each cell. The value of each attribute is implicitly deemed to apply uniformly throughout the volume of the reservoir represented by the ce ll.

WHAT IS A SIMULATION MODEL ? A simulation model is one which shows the main features of a real system, or res embles it in its behaviour, but is simple enough to make calculations on. These calculations may be analytical or numerical . By analytical we mean that t he equations that represent the model can be solved using mathematical technique s such as those used to solve algebraic or differential equations. An analytic solution would normally be written in terms of well known equations or functions (x^2, e ^x , sin x, etc).

Reservoir simulation is an area of reservoir engineering in which computer model s are used to predict the flow of fluids (typically, oil, water, and gas) throug h porous media.

For example, suppose we wanted to describe the growth of a colony of bacteria an d we denoted the number of bacteria as N. Now if our growth model says that the rate of increase of N with time (that is, dN/dt) is directly proportional to N i tself, then: ( dN)/dt= N (1) Where is a constant. We now want to solve this model by answering the question: What is N as a function of time, t, which we denote by N(t), if we start with a bacterial colony of size No. It is easy to show that, N(t) is given by: N_t=N_0 e^t (2) which is the well-known law of exponential growth. We can quickly check that thi s analytical solution to our model (equation 1), is at least consistent by setti ng t = 0 and noting that N = No, as required. Thus, equation 1 is our first example of a simulation model process - bacterial growth in this case and equation 2 is n. But looking further into this model, it seems to predict r, then the number N - the number of bacteria in the colony and, indeed, as t , the number N also . which describes the its analytical solutio that as t gets bigge - gets hugely bigger

Is this realistic? Do colonies of bacteria get infinite in size? Clearly, our mo del is not an exact replica of a real bacterial colony since, as they grow in si ze, they start to use up all the food and die off. This means that our model may need further terms to describe the observed behavior of a real bacterial colony . However, if we are just interested in the early time growth of a small colony, our model may be adequate for our purpose; that is, it may be fit-for-purpose. The real issue here is a balance between the simplicity of our model and the use we want to make of it. This is an important lesson for what is to come in this course and throughout yo ur activities trying to model real petroleum reservoirs. In contrast to the abov e simple model for the growth of a bacterial colony, some models are much more d ifficult to solve. In some cases, we may be able to write down the equations for our model, but it may be impossible to solve these analytically due to the complexity of the equa tions. Instead, it may be possible to approximate these complicated equations by an equivalent numerical model. This model would commonly involve carrying out a

very large number of (locally quite simple) numerical calculations. The task of carrying out large numbers of very repetitive calculations is ideally suited to the capabilities of a digital computer which can do this very quickly. As an example of a numerical model, we will return to the simple model for colon y growth in equation (1). Now, we have already shown that we have a perfectly si mple analytical solution for this model (equation 2). However, we are going to fo rget this for a moment and try to solve equation 1 using a numerical method. To d o this we break the time, t, into discrete time steps which we denote by t. So, i f we have the number of bacteria in the colony at t = 0, i.e. No, then we want t o calculate the number at time t later, then we use the new value and try to find the number at time t later and so on. In order to do this systematically, we nee d an algorithm (a mathematical name for a recipe) which is easy to develop once we have defined the following notation: Notation: the value of N at the current time step n is denoted as N^n the value of N at the next time step, n+1 is denoted as N^(n+1). Clearly, it is the N^(n+1) that we are trying to find. Going back to the main e quation that defines this model (equation 1), we approximate this as follows: (N^(n+1)-N^n)/tN^n (3) where we use the symbol, "", to indicate that equation 3 is really an approximati on, or that it is only exactly true as t 0. Equation 3 is now our (approximate) num erical model which can be rearranged as follows to find Nn+1 (which is the unknow n that we are after): Nn +1 = (1 + .t).Nn (4) where we have gone to the exact equality symbol, =, in equation 4 since, we are ac cepting the fact that the model is not exact but we are using it anyway. This is our numerical algorithm (or recipe) that is now very amenable to solutio n using a simple calculator.

The above example, although very simple, explains quite well several aspects of what a simulation model is. This model is simple enough to be solved analyticall y. However, it can also be formulated as an approximate numerical model which is or ganized into a numerical algorithm (or recipe) which can be followed repetitivel

y. A simple calculator is sufficient to solve this model but, in more complex syste ms, a digital computer would generally be used. EXERCISE 1. Return to the simple model described by equation 1. Take as input data that we s tart off with 25 bacteria in the colony. Take the value = 1.74 and take time ste ps t = 0.05 in the numerical model. Using the scale on the graph below, plot the analytical solution for the number of bacteria N(t) as a function of time between t = 0 and t = 2 (in arbit rary time units). Plot as points on this same plot, the numerical solution at times t = 0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0. What do you notice about these? Using a spreadsheet, repeat the numerical calculation with a t = 0.001 an d plot the same 5 points as before. What do you notice about these?