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  • CrisisWatch N°111

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    International Crisis Group
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    Renewed violence broke out in Myanmar’s Rakhine State on 21 October involving Muslim and Buddhist communities. Official figures report the death toll from the latest outbreak of inter-communal tensions, which mostly involved Muslim Rohingya and Buddhist Rakhine, to be at least 89, with 136 injured and over 5,000 houses torched. More than 30,000 people were officially displaced. Human rights groups have used satellite imagery to show that Rohingya and other Muslim communities are being explicitly targeted in this latest wave of violence. On 19 October a car bomb in Beirut killed eight people, including Lebanon’s intelligence chief Brigadier-General Wissam al-Hassan, and wounded dozens. The opposition alleged Syrian involvement and demanded the resignation of the pro-Syrian Prime Minister Najib Mikati and his government. The attack triggered demonstrations and clashes in the capital and elsewhere, deepening sectarian tension as Lebanon struggles to contain spill over from the conflict in neighbouring Syria. On the Korean peninsula, Seoul announced on 7 October a deal with the United States to extend the range of its ballistic missile system. North Korea condemned the move as part of a plan to invade, and claimed it has missiles capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. On 19 October Pyongyang – in its most strident warning for months – threatened military strikes on a location from which South Korean activists planned to launch an airdrop of propaganda leaflets to the North. In Guinea-Bissau, an alleged coup attempt on 21 October by a group of ethnic Felupe soldiers failed. Suspected coup leader Captain Pansau N’Tchamá was swiftly arrested and three accomplices were reportedly killed, sparking fears of a backlash against the Felupe minority. The government accused Portugal, former army Chief of Staff Zamora Induta and ousted Prime Minister Carlos Júnior of involvement in the coup. Opposition leaders, on the other hand, maintain the coup was a government ploy aimed at giving it a pretext to clamp down on its critics. Philippines President Benigno Aquino’s government signed a peace deal with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the country’s largest and best-armed insurgent group. The agreement, which envisions the creation of a new autonomous regional government called the Bangsamoro to replace the failed Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, is the best chance for peace with the MILF for years. Both parties have been careful to underscore the hard work that lies ahead in implementing the agreement’s terms. Historic parliamentary elections in Georgia marked the country’s first democratic transfer of power since independence. President Saakashvili quickly conceded the defeat of his United National Movement to the opposition coalition Georgian Dream, led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, which took 55 per cent of the vote. International observers praised the conduct of the elections. The change in government might signal a thaw in Georgia’s relations with Russia, although the new government has ruled out restoring diplomatic ties as long as Moscow continues to recognise the independence of breakaway regions South Ossetia and Abkhazia. October 2012 TRENDS Deteriorated Situations Guinea-Bissau, Lebanon, North Korea, Myanmar Improved Situations Georgia, Philippines Unchanged Situations Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, China/Japan, Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Guinea, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Jordan, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Liberia, Libya, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (Russia), Pakistan, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Sierra Leon

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    Renewed violence broke out in Myanmar’s Rakhine State on 21 October involving Muslim and Buddhist communities. Official figures report the death toll from the latest outbreak of inter-communal tensions, which mostly involved Muslim Rohingya and Buddhist Rakhine, to be at least 89, with 136 injured and over 5,000 houses torched. More than 30,000 people were officially displaced. Human rights groups have used satellite imagery to show that Rohingya and other Muslim communities are being explicitly targeted in this latest wave of violence. On 19 October a car bomb in Beirut killed eight people, including Lebanon’s intelligence chief Brigadier-General Wissam al-Hassan, and wounded dozens. The opposition alleged Syrian involvement and demanded the resignation of the pro-Syrian Prime Minister Najib Mikati and his government. The attack triggered demonstrations and clashes in the capital and elsewhere, deepening sectarian tension as Lebanon struggles to contain spill over from the conflict in neighbouring Syria. On the Korean peninsula, Seoul announced on 7 October a deal with the United States to extend the range of its ballistic missile system. North Korea condemned the move as part of a plan to invade, and claimed it has missiles capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. On 19 October Pyongyang – in its most strident warning for months – threatened military strikes on a location from which South Korean activists planned to launch an airdrop of propaganda leaflets to the North. In Guinea-Bissau, an alleged coup attempt on 21 October by a group of ethnic Felupe soldiers failed. Suspected coup leader Captain Pansau N’Tchamá was swiftly arrested and three accomplices were reportedly killed, sparking fears of a backlash against the Felupe minority. The government accused Portugal, former army Chief of Staff Zamora Induta and ousted Prime Minister Carlos Júnior of involvement in the coup. Opposition leaders, on the other hand, maintain the coup was a government ploy aimed at giving it a pretext to clamp down on its critics. Philippines President Benigno Aquino’s government signed a peace deal with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the country’s largest and best-armed insurgent group. The agreement, which envisions the creation of a new autonomous regional government called the Bangsamoro to replace the failed Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, is the best chance for peace with the MILF for years. Both parties have been careful to underscore the hard work that lies ahead in implementing the agreement’s terms. Historic parliamentary elections in Georgia marked the country’s first democratic transfer of power since independence. President Saakashvili quickly conceded the defeat of his United National Movement to the opposition coalition Georgian Dream, led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, which took 55 per cent of the vote. International observers praised the conduct of the elections. The change in government might signal a thaw in Georgia’s relations with Russia, although the new government has ruled out restoring diplomatic ties as long as Moscow continues to recognise the independence of breakaway regions South Ossetia and Abkhazia. October 2012 TRENDS Deteriorated Situations Guinea-Bissau, Lebanon, North Korea, Myanmar Improved Situations Georgia, Philippines Unchanged Situations Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, China/Japan, Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Guinea, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Jordan, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Liberia, Libya, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (Russia), Pakistan, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Sierra Leon

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    85 visualizações12 páginas

    CrisisWatch N°111

    Enviado por

    International Crisis Group
    Renewed violence broke out in Myanmar’s Rakhine State on 21 October involving Muslim and Buddhist communities. Official figures report the death toll from the latest outbreak of inter-communal tensions, which mostly involved Muslim Rohingya and Buddhist Rakhine, to be at least 89, with 136 injured and over 5,000 houses torched. More than 30,000 people were officially displaced. Human rights groups have used satellite imagery to show that Rohingya and other Muslim communities are being explicitly targeted in this latest wave of violence. On 19 October a car bomb in Beirut killed eight people, including Lebanon’s intelligence chief Brigadier-General Wissam al-Hassan, and wounded dozens. The opposition alleged Syrian involvement and demanded the resignation of the pro-Syrian Prime Minister Najib Mikati and his government. The attack triggered demonstrations and clashes in the capital and elsewhere, deepening sectarian tension as Lebanon struggles to contain spill over from the conflict in neighbouring Syria. On the Korean peninsula, Seoul announced on 7 October a deal with the United States to extend the range of its ballistic missile system. North Korea condemned the move as part of a plan to invade, and claimed it has missiles capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. On 19 October Pyongyang – in its most strident warning for months – threatened military strikes on a location from which South Korean activists planned to launch an airdrop of propaganda leaflets to the North. In Guinea-Bissau, an alleged coup attempt on 21 October by a group of ethnic Felupe soldiers failed. Suspected coup leader Captain Pansau N’Tchamá was swiftly arrested and three accomplices were reportedly killed, sparking fears of a backlash against the Felupe minority. The government accused Portugal, former army Chief of Staff Zamora Induta and ousted Prime Minister Carlos Júnior of involvement in the coup. Opposition leaders, on the other hand, maintain the coup was a government ploy aimed at giving it a pretext to clamp down on its critics. Philippines President Benigno Aquino’s government signed a peace deal with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the country’s largest and best-armed insurgent group. The agreement, which envisions the creation of a new autonomous regional government called the Bangsamoro to replace the failed Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, is the best chance for peace with the MILF for years. Both parties have been careful to underscore the hard work that lies ahead in implementing the agreement’s terms. Historic parliamentary elections in Georgia marked the country’s first democratic transfer of power since independence. President Saakashvili quickly conceded the defeat of his United National Movement to the opposition coalition Georgian Dream, led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, which took 55 per cent of the vote. International observers praised the conduct of the elections. The change in government might signal a thaw in Georgia’s relations with Russia, although the new government has ruled out restoring diplomatic ties as long as Moscow continues to recognise the independence of breakaway regions South Ossetia and Abkhazia. October 2012 TRENDS Deteriorated Situations Guinea-Bissau, Lebanon, North Korea, Myanmar Improved Situations Georgia, Philippines Unchanged Situations Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, China/Japan, Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Guinea, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Jordan, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Liberia, Libya, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (Russia), Pakistan, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Sierra Leon

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    de 12

    A monthly bulletin by Crisis Group on current and potential conflicts around the world 111 1 November 2012 Board

    of Trustees
    Chair Thomas Pickering

    October 2012 Trends


    Deteriorated Situations
    Guinea-Bissau (p.4) Lebanon (p.10) Myanmar (p.6) North Korea (p.5)

    Improved Situations
    Georgia (p.8) Phillippines (p.7)

    President and CEO Louise Arbour Vice-Chairs Ayo Obe Ghassan Salam Executive Committee Morton Abramowitz Cheryl Carolus Maria Livanos Cattaui Yoichi Funabashi Frank Giustra Mark Malloch-Brown Moiss Nam George Soros Pr Stenbck Kofi Annan Nahum Barnea Samuel Berger Emma Bonino Micheline Calmy-Rey Wesley Clark Sheila Coronel Mark Eyskens Nabil Fahmy Joshua Fink Lykke Friis Joschka Fischer Jean-Marie Guhenno Carla Hills Lena Hjelm-Walln Mo Ibrahim Igor Ivanov Asma Jahangir Wadah Khanfar Wim Kok Ricardo Lagos Joanne Leedom-Ackerman Lalit Mansingh Benjamin Mkapa Laurence Parisot Karim Raslan Paul Reynolds Javier Solana Liv Monica Stubholt Lawrence Summers Wang Jisi Wu Jianmin Lionel Zinsou Chairmen Emeriti Martti Ahtisaari George J. Mitchell President Emeritus Gareth Evans

    Unchanged Situations
    Afghanistan (p.5), Algeria (p.11), Armenia (p.8), Azerbaijan (p.8), Bahrain (p.10), Bangladesh (p.5), Belarus (p.8), Bolivia (p. 9), Bosnia (p.7), Burundi (p.2), Central African Republic (p.2), Chad (p.2), China/Japan (p.5), Colombia (p.9), Cte dIvoire (p.3), Cyprus (p.9), Democratic Republic of Congo (p.2), Ecuador (p.9), Egypt (p.11), Eritrea (p.2), Ethiopia (p.2), Guatemala (p.9), Guinea (p.4), Haiti (p.9), India (non-Kashmir) (p.5), Indonesia (p.6), Iran (p.11), Iraq (p.11), Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories (p.10), Jordan (p.11), Kashmir (p.6), Kazakhstan (p.4), Kenya (p.2), Kosovo (p.7), Kuwait (p.11), Kyrgyzstan (p.5), Liberia (p.4), Libya (p.11), Macedonia (p.7), Madagascar (p.3), Mali (p.4), Mauritania (p.12), Mexico (p.10), Morocco (p.12), NagornoKarabakh (Azerbaijan) (p.8), Nepal (p.6), Niger (p.4), Nigeria (p.4), North Caucasus (Russia) (p.8), Pakistan (p.6), Rwanda (p.2), Saudi Arabia (p.11), Serbia (p.7), Sierra Leone (p.4), Somalia (p.3), Somaliland (p.3), South Sudan (p.3), Sudan (p.3), Sri Lanka (p.6), Sudan (p.3), Syria (p.10), Tajikistan (p.5), Thailand (p.7), Timor-Leste (p.7), Tunisia (p.12), Turkey (p.9), Uganda (p.3), Ukraine (p.9), Venezuela (p.10), Yemen (p.11), Zimbabwe (p.3)

    November 2012 Watchlist


    Conflict Risk Alerts Conflict Resolution Opportunities

    CrisisWatch
    summarises briefly developments during the previous month in some 70 situations of current or potential conflict, listed alphabetically by region, providing references and links to more detailed information sources (all references mentioned are hyperlinked in the electronic version of this bulletin); assesses whether the overall situation in each case has, during the previous month, significantly deteriorated, significantly improved, or on balance remained more or less unchanged; alerts readers to situations where, in the coming month, there is a particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict, or a particular conflict resolution opportunity (noting that in some instances there may in fact be both); and summarises Crisis Groups reports and briefing papers that have been published in the last month. CrisisWatch is compiled by Crisis Groups Brussels Research Unit, drawing on multiple sources including the resources of our some 140 staff members across five continents, who already report on some 60 of the situations listed here. Comments and suggestions can be sent to crisiswatch@crisisgroup.org. To search past issues of CrisisWatch visit our databases and resources page at www.crisisgroup.org.

    Crisis Group is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation, with some 140 staff members on five continents, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict. Crisis Groups approach is grounded in field research. Teams of political analysts are located within or close by countries at risk of outbreak, escalation or recurrence of violent conflict. Based on information and assessments from the field, Crisis Group produces regular analytical reports containing practical recommendations targeted at key international decision-takers, and backed up with high-level advocacy. Crisis Group is chaired by former U.S. Ambassador and Vice Chairman of Hills & Company Thomas R. Pickering, and its President and Chief Executive is former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour.

    Africa
    Central Africa
    Burundi Atleast1armyofficerkilled4OctinclashwithBurundi

    New Crisis Group Africa Briefing N91, Eastern Congo: Why Stabilisation Failed, 4 Oct. 2012. The Kivus region of eastern Congo again faces escalating violence, including by a rebel force acting as a proxy of neighbouring Rwanda. To stop the repetitive cycle of rebellion and avoid large-scale killing, donors and African mediators need to move from crisis management to conflict resolution with the right set of pressures on Kigali and Kinshasa. Rwanda Countrywon2-yearAfricaseatonUNSC18Octdespite

    rebelsnearUvira,easternDRC;witnessesallegedarmyconducting jointoperationwithDRCarmy.Atleast9rebelsreportedlykilled 22-24OctinclasheswithsecurityforcesinCibitokeprovince, nearDRC.


    Rebel group claims responsibility for Burundi attacks, AFP, 25 Oct. 2012.

    New Crisis Group Africa Report N192, Burundi: Bye-bye Arusha?, 25 Oct. 2012. Since the 2010 boycotted elections, Burundi is steadily drifting away from what was initially regarded as a peacemaking model, and violence from both the ruling party and the opposition is threatening stability. CentralAfricanRepublic Publicprosecutor18Octsaid3arrested,

    continuedinternationalcondemnationforreportedsupportto DRCrebels.UNgroupofexpertsreportleakedmid-Octaccused DefenceMinisterJamesKabarebeofcommandingDRCM23 rebels.OppositionleaderVictoireIngabiresentencedto8years jail30Octforgenocidedenial.AmnestyInternationalearlyOct releasedreportalleginggovttortureofdetaineesinrun-upto 2010election.


    Opposition leader sentenced to 8 years in Rwanda, AP, 30 Oct. 2012.

    Horn of Africa
    chargedwithplanningcoup.AuthoritiesbeganrepatriatingPopularFrontforRecovery(FPR)rebelstoChadearlyOct.2Chinese roadworkersabductedlateSeptbyunidentifiedrebelsonGaroua Boulai-Bouarroadreleased.
    Central African Republic says foils another coup, Reuters, 18 Oct. 2012.

    Chad FrenchPresidentHollandeearlyOctrequestedreopening ofinvestigationinto2008disappearanceofpoliticalopponent IbniMahamatSaleh,8OctcancelledplannedmeetingwithPresidentDeby;Debydidnotattend14OctFrancophoniesummitin Kinshasa,reportedlyinresponse.3-daytradeunionstrikeover salariesbegan22Oct.Govt12OctannouncedexpulsionofItalianbishopMichelRussofollowinghiscriticismofgovthandling ofoilrevenues.


    Aprs le sommet de la Francophonie, les relations entre les prsidents tchadien et franais senveniment, RFI, 17 Oct. 2012.

    UNSCliftsanctionsimposed2009overitssupporttoSomali militants,saidEthiopiaactivelyengagedindestabilisingEritrea. Ethiopia-basedoppositionRedSeaAfarDemocraticOrganisation (RSADO)20OctaccusedAsmaragovtofforciblydisplacingAfar ethnicminorityinGalalo.2seniorairforceofficersearlymonth reportedlydefectedtoSaudiArabia.


    Why two Eritrean pilots went rogue and stole their presidents plane, Atlantic, 16 Oct. 2012.

    Eritrea In27SeptlettertoUNSCreleased8Oct,govtrequested

    Ethiopia FollowingSupremeCouncilonIslamicAffairselec-

    RevolutionaryArmyrebelsandFARDCcontinuedineast.M2310 and14Octconductedunsuccessfuloffensivestoextendterritory inNE.FARDC24OctbeganintegrationofNyaturalocalmilitias. LeakedUNgroupofexpertsreportmid-monthsaidUganda, RwandabackingM23rebellion;UNSC19OctannouncedintentiontoimposesanctionsonM23leaders,anyonewhoviolated sanctionsregime,armsembargo.DRC17Octcalledforsanctions againstUgandanandRwandanofficialsnamedinleakedreport. At14thFrancophoniesummitinKinshasa,Frenchpresident Hollande,CanadianPMHarpercriticisedgovtoverhuman rights,democraticrecord;govtdenouncedoutsideinvolvement ineasternrebellion.AttemptedassassinationofrightsactivistDr DenisMukwegeinBukavu25Octpromptedinternationalcondemnation.6UNpeacekeeperswounded19OctnearBuganza, NE;2rangers,1soldier,5MayiMayirebelskilled25Octinattack onVirungaNationalPark,NE.
    Uganda and Rwanda deny supporting DRC rebels, Al Jazeera, 17 Oct. 2012.

    DemocraticRepublicofCongo ClashesbetweenM23/Congolese

    tions7Oct,ongoingcountrywideprotestsoverperceivedgovt interferenceinMuslimaffairs.Demonstrationsturnedviolent21 OctinGerba,Amharastate,atleast4killedincluding1police; 29Muslims,includingnineprominentreligiousleaders,charged withterrorism29Oct.PeacetalksbetweengovtandOgadenrebels 15-17Octfailedtoachievebreakthrough.Govt27Octannounced 10NGOsshutdownundernewcivilsocietyandcharitylaw.Govt9 Octreleased75EritreanprisonerscapturedinMarchcross-border attackonEritreanmilitarybase.


    Ethiopias ONLF rebellion, IRIN, 29 Oct. 2012.

    Kenya InwaveofarrestsofseparatistMombasaRepublican

    Council(MRC)members,police15OctarrestedMRCleader OmarMwamnuadziandshotdead2supportersinKwale,near Mombasa;Mwamnuadzichargedwithfirearmspossession, incitementtoviolence;2killed28OctincludingMuslimcleric inpoliceraidinMombasa.3suspectedal-Shabaabkilled17Oct inpoliceraidsnearMombasa.PresidentKibaki9Octvetoed billpassedbyparliamentawardingMPslargebonusfollowing protestsinNairobi.ICCProsecutorBensoudavisited22-27Oct, criticisedpoliticianspoliticisationofICCtrial.PMOdinga24Oct saidvoterregistrationdelayswillnotchange4March2013electiondate.ThousandsofBaringocountyresidentslatemonthfled clashesbetweenPokotandTugencommunities;13killed30Oct inreportedSambururaidonTurkanavillageinSamburuCounty. 4killed29-30OctinKisumuindemonstrationsfollowing29Oct killingoflocalpolitician.Suspectedal-Shabaabmilitants1Oct attackedGarissapolicepost,2OcttorchedGarissapolicestation; policemankilled,1injured30OctinambushonpatrolinGarissa.
    Kenyas coastal separatists menace or martyrs?, IRIN, 24 Oct. 2012.

    Somalia PresidentSheikh6Octselectedpoliticalnewcomer

    AbdiFarahShirdonasPM;MPs17Octunanimouslyapproved appointment.InternationalcommunityincludingvisitingItalian FMGiulioTerziwelcomedappointment,commendedconclusion oftransitionperiod.Al-ShabaabthreatenedattacksonKenyaand UK,bannedaidgroupIslamicRelieffromterritory.Negotiations toestablishpermanentgoverningstructureforformeral-Shabaab strongholdKismayoongoing.Al-ShabaabattacksinMogadishu, Kismayoandnewly-liberatedareascontinuedincluding28Oct killingofSomaligeneral.Puntlandsecurityforcesmid-month reportedlyseizedal-ShabaabarmsshipmentfromYemenin Qandalacoastaltown.PoetWarsameShireAwaleandfemale civilianshotdead30OctinMogadishu;al-Shabaabdefector killedinMogadishusameday.UNhumanrightschiefPillay30 Octexpressedalarmatassaultsonmediaworkersafter3killed duringOct,bringingtotalto18killedthisyear.
    Somalia MPs approve Shirdon as the new prime minister BBC, 17 Oct. 2012.

    reportedbombingofSKordofanvillagesbySudanArmedForces 30Oct.U.S.31OctaccusedSPLM-Nrebelsofrecruitingchild soldiersfromSSudanrefugeecamps.FightingcontinuedinS Kordofan,includingSPLM-NattacksonKadugligarrisonand town.Govt10OctexpelledNorwegiandiplomatfollowing9Oct expulsionfromOsloofSudanesediplomatwhoreportedlyspied onSudaneserefugees.


    Sudan threatens retaliation over alleged Israeli air strike, Guardian, 24 Oct. 2012.

    govtofaidingrebellionineasternDRC;FMOryem23Octdenied reportsgovtplanningtohaltM23-Kinshasamediationeffortsif UNSCendorsedaccusations,saidgovtstrengtheningsecurityin LakeAlbertRiftBasinregionborderingDRCfollowingreports DRCrebelsplanningresumptionoffighting.


    Uganda must explain role in Congo Kabila, Daily Monitor, 28 Oct. 2012.

    Uganda LeakedUNgroupofexpertsreportmid-monthaccused

    New Crisis Group Africa Briefing N92, Assessing Turkeys Role in Somalia, 8 Oct. 2012. As a new Somali government is established, Turkeys engagement in the war-ravaged country must be thoughtful and carefully coordinated so as not to lead to yet another failed international intervention. Somaliland Journalistkilled23Octbygunmenindisputed

    Southern Africa
    Madagascar SADCconsultationmissionvisitedmid-monthto

    Soolregionamidgrowingconcernsoverharassment,arrestof journalistsinSomaliland;UNSRSGAugustineMahigacalled forinvestigation.4wounded23OctbylandmineinSoolregion; governorsaidal-Shabaabmilitantssuspected.


    Somaliland journalists under fire, IRIN, 17 Oct. 2012.

    assessroadmapimplementation,feasibilityofholdingelectionsin May2013.SADCmilitarymission15Octvisitedtoassesssecurity conditionsinviewofformerpresidentRavalomananasreturn,met withdetainedsoldiers.Securityforcesreportedlyburneddown16 villagesinsouthsuspectedofharbouringdahalocattle-rustlers.


    Gendarmes et voleurs de zbus, Jeune Afrique, 10 Oct. 2012.

    SouthSudan Parliament16Octratifiedborderandoildealwith

    Sudan;hundreds15Octprotestedagainstdemilitarisationofcontestedborderareas.Govt18Octorderedoilcompaniestoresume production,ending9-monthshutdown.Govt23Octexpressed disappointmentoverAUHIPcalltoextendAbyeimediationefforts, saidextensionnotconsistentwithAUroadmap,UNResolution 2060.5,includingsoldier,killed19Octbyunknowngunmenin Borcounty,Jonglei.AmnestyInternational3Octaccusedsecurity forcesofwidespreadabusesinJongleidisarmamentcampaign. Govt24OctannouncedplanstomediateEthiopia-Eritreaborder dispute.VPMachar19Octdismissedrumoursofcoupplotfollowing11OctarrestofseniormilitaryofficerandvisitbyPresident KiirtoSPLAHQ,speechwarningagainstcoups.
    S Sudan ratifies border deal with Sudan despite protest, Reuters, 16 Oct. 2012.

    Zimbabwe Fearedshowdownoverdraftconstitutionat21-23Oct

    SecondAll-StakeholdersConferencedidnotmaterialise.However, PresidentMugabe21Octclaimedpoliticalpartyprincipalswill havefinalsayoninputfromSecondAll-StakeholdersConference, promptingfearsprincipalsmaytrytoforceamendments.Petrol bombattackinZakaearlyOctinjuredseveralMDCsupporters; PMTsvangirai6Octagainthreatenedtopulloutofunitygovt,citingrenewedviolenceagainstMDCmembers/supporters.MDC-T negotiatorandEnergyMinisterEltonMangomaarrested10Oct, accusedofunderminingpresident;releasedonbail.Justice MinisterPatrickChinamasaandZANU-PFspokesman/politburo memberRugareGumboannouncedTsvangiraipresidencywould notbeacceptabletomilitary.
    Rogue soldiers terrorise, threaten villagers, NewsDay, 29 Oct. 2012.

    Israeliaircraft24Oct,2killed;govtblamedIsrael,threatened referraltoUNSC,saidreservedrighttoreact;Iranianwarships reportedlydockedatPortSudan29Oct.UNhumanrightschief Pillaycalledforinvestigationinto17Octattackonconvoythat killedUNpeacekeeper,2Octkillingof4UNpeacekeepersin WDarfur.RenewedrebelclasheswithgovttroopsinDarfurleft severaldeadinAbuDaligmid-month;govtandsplinterJEM rebels22Octagreedtoimmediateceasefire,peacenegotiations followingseriesofmeetings17-22Oct;JEM,SudanLiberation Armyrebels27OctreportedlyattackedElFasher,NorthDarfur statecapitalandgovtstronghold.Govt24Octexpressedconcern oversecurityarrangements,timeframeofTripartiteInitiativeto deliverhumanitarianairtoSKordofan,BlueNilestates.SPLM-N

    Sudan MilitaryfactoryinKhartoumreportedlybombedby

    New Crisis Group Africa Report N191, Implementing Peace and Security Architecture (II): Southern Africa, 15 Oct. 2012. To preserve Southern Africas relative peace in the face of rising challenges and threats, Southern African Development Community (SADC) member states must collectively reinforce its peace and security architecture.

    West Africa
    CtedIvoire UNSC12Octdiscussedleakedgroupofexperts

    reportallegingsupportersofformerpresidentGbagbousing GhanaasrearbasetodestabiliseCDI,recruitingmercenariesin Liberia,metwithMalianjuntamembersandsoughttorecruit IslamistextremistsfromnorthernMali.ReportalsoallegedPresi3

    dentOuattaraviolatedarmsembargoduringfirstyearinoffice. Govt8OctreopenedbordersclosedafterSeptborder-postattack bysuspectedpro-Gbagboelements.Ghanaianauthorities15Oct arrested43Ivorianex-combatantssuspectedofinvolvementin subversiveactivitiesinrefugeecampnearCDIborder;24Oct releasedformerGbagbospokesmanJustinKonKatinanonbail. Unknowngunmen13-14Octattackedpolicestation,gendarmerie brigade,militarybarracksinBonoatown,leaving2dead;27Oct attackedprosecutorsresidenceinGagnoa.Authorities11Oct found6bodiesinmassgraveinDukou.Militarycourt11Oct sentencedgeneralBrunotDogboBl,accusedofkillingretired colonel-majorAdamaDossoduringpost-electoralcrisis,to15 yearsjail.AmnestyInternational,localNGOs,30Octissuedjoint communiqucriticisingcontinuedhumanrightsviolations.
    Un rapport qui fait grand bruit en Cte dIvoire, RFI, 8 Oct. 2012.

    MovementforLiberationofAzawad(MNLA)politicalplatform nowclaimingrighttoself-determinationinsteadofsecession. EUFMs15Octcommissionedplantodeploysome150military personneltotrainMalianarmy.4,000UnitedFrontforSafeguardingDemocracyandRepublic(FDR)supportersdemonstratedin BamakotodemandliberationofnorthernMali;2,000CoordinationofPatrioticOrganisationsinMali(COPAM)supporters18 Octstagedcounter-protestsagainstplansforforeignintervention. ArmedmeninmilitaryfatiguesreportedlykilledseveralTuareg civiliansnearDiabaly24Oct;MNLAdemandedexplanationfrom Bamako.Guineangovt17Octauthorisedarmsshipmentbound forMali,previouslyblockedbecauseofsecurityconcerns.
    The whiff of conflict grows in Mali, New York Times, 23 Oct. 2012. For latest report, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N90, Mali: The Need for Determined and Coordinated International Action, 24 Sept. 2012.

    Guinea PresidentCond5Octreshuffledgovt,replacing3gen-

    eralswithciviliansinmovetosymbolisepoliticalnormalisation. Oppositioncoalition30Octcontestedpresidentsappointments toelectionscommission.Govt13-14Octexpelled26northern MalianssuspectedoflinkswithIslamistgroups.


    Remaniement ministriel, Louncny Fall aux Affaires trangres, Jeune Afrique, 8 Oct. 2012.

    Niger Following14Octabductionof6humanitarianworkersin Dakoro,allegedlybyNigeria-basedBokoHarammilitants,govt signedcooperationagreementwithNigeriatostartjointborder patrols;kidnappersreportedlycrossedborderintonorthernMali.


    Le Niger et le Nigeria renforcent leur coopration et signent un accord de dfense, RFI, 19 Oct. 2012.

    Guinea-Bissau EthnicFelupesoldiers21Octattackedmilitarybar-

    racksnearBissauairportinattemptedcoup;6killed.Govtaccused formerchiefofstaffZamoraInduta,oustedPMCarlosJniorand Portuguesegovtofinvolvement,28OctrequestedformalexplanationfromPortugal.GomesJniorsupportersdenouncedcoupas set-up.Soldiers27OctcapturedsuspectedcoupleaderCaptain PansauNTcham,allegedlymurdered3accomplices,increasing fearsofbacklashagainstethnicFelupe.2leadingpoliticianscritical oftransitionauthorities,YancubaDjolaIndjaiandSilvestreAlves, badlybeatenbymilitary22Oct.AngolanFM28Octformally requestedAUpeaceandSecurityCounciltointervene.


    Guin-Bissau acusa Portugal de apoiar um golpe de Estado, Pblico, 21 Oct. 2012. For latest report, see Group Africa Report N190, Beyond Turf Wars: Managing the Post-Coup Transition in Guinea-Bissau, 17 Aug. 2012.

    betweenarmyandsuspectedBokoHaram(BH)militantsin Potiskum,NE.SuicidecarbombattackonchurchinKaduna28 Octkilledatleast7,injuredover100;3Muslimskilledinreprisal attacks.BHmemberarrested18Octathomeofprominentsenator. Perpetratorsof1OctattackinMubithatkilledatleast25civilians, manystudents,remainunknown;severalreportedlyarrested, includingBHmembers.HumanRightsWatch11OctsaidBH attacksinnorthlikelyamounttocrimesagainsthumanity,saidgovt securityforcesalsoengagedinabusesincludingunlawfulkilling.


    Nigerian soldiers killed by Boko Haram in Potiskum, BBC, 22 Oct. 2012.

    Nigeria Atleast31killed,hundredsdisplaced18-22Octinclashes

    SierraLeone Aheadof17Novpolls,violence27-28Octbetween supportersofrivalpartiesinKonodistrictwoundedatleast10.


    Chaos engulfs rival parties ahead of Sierra Leone polls, Citizen, 30 Oct. 2012.

    Liberia PresidentJohnsonSirleaf18OctmetwithCDIPresident

    Ouattara,announcedjointmilitaryoperationalongborder;securityforcessamedayarrestedwarlordBobbyJuluforsuspectedrole inCDIconflict.GovtrefutedUNexpertreportclaimsthatseveral Ivorianrebeltrainingbasesestablishedineast.


    Govt rejects rebel training claims, New Dawn, 19 Oct. 2012.

    Asia
    Central Asia
    Kazakhstan 3oppositionactivistsincludingoppositionparty

    continuedasUN12OctgaveECOWAS,AU45-daydeadlineto setoutmeansandmodalitiesforintervention.AUappointed formerGuineantransitionalpresidentandmilitarystrongman GenSekoubaKonattomakeproposedWestAfricanforceoperational;internationalexpertsmetinBamako31Octtodiscuss interventionplans.MovementforOnenessandJihadinWest Africa(MUJAO)29OctvowedtotakeBamakoin24hoursif internationalforcesdeployed.Diplomaticeffortstoresolvecrisis alsocontinued:AU26OctnamedformerBurundianpresident BuyoyaasHighRepresentativeforMaliandSahel,24Octlifted Malissuspensionfromorganisation;UN10Octnamedformer ItalianPMRomanoProdiasSpecialEnvoyforSahel.Burkinab FMandmediatorDjibrilBassol9OctpresentednewNational
    4

    Mali PlanningformilitaryinterventioninIslamist-heldnorth

    leaderVladimirKozlovconvicted8Octofformingillegalgroup, seekingtooverthrowgovt,incitingsocialhatred.Chargeslinked tooilworkersstrikewhichledtoDec2011violenceinJanaozen; Kozlovjailedfor7.5years.U.S.expressedmutedconcernover apparentlypolitically-motivatedcase.Witnessincaserelatedto Janaozenviolencewhotestifiedthatinvestigatorshadtortured himfounddead15Oct.CourtinwesterncityAtyrau10Oct jailedlocalmanfor10yearsforterroristactivities,illegalarms possession;courtinAqtobe23Octjailed3forplottingtoblow uppolicestation,creatingterroristgroup.SolesurvivorofJune policespecialoperationinAqtobejailedfor12yearsforterrorism, murder.Al-Qaeda-linkedwebsite15OctannouncedTunisian

    leaderofKazakh-linkedextremistgroupJundal-Khilafahkilled inNWaziristan,Pakistan;grouphasclaimedcreditfor3attacks inKazakhstan.HeadofAgencyonReligionssaidnumberoflegal religiousgroupsreducedfrom46to17followingnewlawrequiringre-registration.


    Political trial fails to provoke Pussy Riot-style outcry, Eurasianet, 10 Oct. 2012.

    attemptstoblockthem,andreleasedfurther50,000leaflets29Oct. SeoulcommencedannualHogukjointmilitaryexercise25Oct, involving240,000personnel;ROKsatellitelaunch,plannedfor lateOct,postponedtillNov.DPRKArmyVice-MinisterKimChol reportedlyexecutedformisbehaviourduringofficialmourning periodafterKimJong-Ilsdeath.


    North Korea warns US on missiles after South deal, BBC, 9 Oct. 2012.

    Kyrgyzstan Over1,000protesterscallingfornationalisationof

    countryslargestgoldmineKumtor3Octclashedwithsecurity forces,policeinBishkek.OppositionAta-JurtleaderKamchybek Tashievjoineddemonstration,calledonsupporterstoseizepower; heandseveralothersattemptedtoenterpresidentialadministration.Tashievarrestedalongwith2otherAta-JurtMPs,charged withattemptingtooverthrowgovt.MountingprotestsinsoutherncityJalal-Abadcallingfortheirrelease;policealsodispersed protestersinOsh.Presidentreportedlywillingtoconsiderclemencyifdefendantsareconvicted.Over200peopledemonstrated innortherntownOrlovka22OctcallingforclosureofChinese miningcompanyoperationsatAltynkengoldmine;workhalted indefinitelyfollowingmassscufflesbetweenChineseandlocal workers.7suspectedterroristsdetained,largeamountofweapons reportedlyseizedduring2securityoperationsinBishkekand nearbyvillage.PMSatybaldiyev18Octtoldcabinet2013budget tobecutdrasticallyduetounprecedenteddeficit.
    Was Kyrgyz protest really about gold mine or face time?, RFE/RL, 4 Oct. 2012.

    South Asia
    Afghanistan PresidentKarzai18Octsaidsecurityforcesreadyfor

    Tajikistan RussiaandTajikistan5Octsignedagreementallowing

    RussiantroopstoremainatmilitarybaseinTajikistanuntil2042; U.S.ambassadorsaidU.S.-Tajikistantiesnotaffected.Court24 OctorderedclosureofprominentrightsgroupAmparo.Amnesty InternationalurgedPresidentRakhmontotakemeasuresagainst widespreaduseoftortureinpre-trialdetentionfacilities.2Tajik citizensarrestedinAfghanistanforallegedIMUmembership andplanningterroristattacksinAfghanistan.IslamicRenaissancePartyleadersaidsupportforpartyincreasinginGornoBadakhshan,siteofcontroversialmilitaryoperationagainstalleged militantsinJuly.


    IRP leader examines moderate Islams influence in Central Asia, Eurasianet, 22 Oct. 2012.

    NATOhandoveramidrumoursofacceleratedNATOwithdrawal; FrenchFMFabius21OctsaidFrenchtroopwithdrawalmayhappenmorequicklythananticipated.Govt31OctannouncedApril 2014presidentialelectiondate.Suicidebomber26Octkilledat least35,woundeddozensattendingmosquetocelebrateEidalAdhaholidayinMaymana,Faryabprovince.19weddingattendees killed19OctbyroadsidebombinBalkhprovince.17killed31Oct inseriesofroadsidebombingsinsouth.Police23Octannounced captureofTalibancommanderMullahAbdulRahmaninjoint Afghan-NATOoperationinKunduzprovince.PakistanFMKhar 21OctcalledonKabultoarrest,extraditeMaulanaFazlullah, PakistanTalibanleaderwhoclaimedresponsibilityforshooting ofteenageactivistinPakistan(seePakistan);Fazlullahbelievedto beinAfghanistan.Taliban25Octclaimedresponsibilityforkilling 2U.S.troopsinsouthernUruzganprovinceinsuspectedinsider attack.Authorities11Octreportedexpulsionof31Pakistani,4 Iranianclerics,accusedofencouragingjihadagainstgovt.
    Louise Arbour, For a Clean Vote in Afghanistan, Hindu, 31 Oct. 2012. Afghanistans safest province falling prey to Taliban, Reuters, 17 Oct. 2012.

    New Crisis Group Asia Report N236, Afghanistan: The Long, Hard Road to the 2014 Transition, 8 Oct. 2012. Afghanistan is hurtling toward a devastating political crisis as the government prepares to take full control of security in 2014. Bangladesh PoliceearlyOctarrested300suspectsinSeptanti-

    North East Asia


    China/Japan Chinese,Japaneseofficialsmetmid-monthtodiscuss

    disputeoverDiaoyu/Senkakuislands.Chineseofficialspulledout ofIMF,WorldBankannualmeetingsinJapan.Chinesepatrolvesselsenteredwatersnearislandsduringmonth,30Octconfronted Japanesevessels.Chinesenavy19OctconductedexercisesinEast ChinaSea.


    Chinese ships enter disputed Senkaku waters, Telegraph, 25 Oct. 2012.

    BuddhistviolenceinCoxsBazaardistrict,includingBuddhistlocal whoputimageofburntQuranonFacebook,sparkingviolence. Govtmid-monthsoughttalkswithU.S.diplomatsoverarrestof BangladeshiterrorsuspectQuaziMohammadRezwanulAhsan NafiswhoattemptedtoblowupFederalReserveBankinNew York.Govt25OctsentadditionalsecurityforcestoMyanmar borderamidreportsofinfluxofRohingyaMuslimrefugeesfleeing RakhineStateviolence.


    Bangladesh violence instigator arrested, AFP, 11 Oct. 2012.

    NorthKorea TensionsmountedonKoreanpeninsulaagainstback-

    dropofrisingnationalismintheregion.ROK7Octannounced dealwithU.S.toextendballisticmissilesystemrange;Pyongyang respondedwithclaimithasmissilesthatcouldreachU.S.mainland. DPRK19OctthreatenedmilitaryactionagainstROKifSKorean rightsactivistsdroppedpropagandaleafletsinDPRK;activists carriedoutairdropof120,000leaflets22OctdespiteROKpolice

    napore,Palu,Simdegadistricts;7OctraidedMaoistbasecamp inSarandistrict;10Octseizedcacheofammunitions,explosives fromMaoisthideoutsinWestMidnaporedistrict.6policekilled, 8injuredinMaoistlandmineblasts,gunbattleinGayadistrict18 Oct.Maoists16Octkidnapped3inMalkangiridistrict,18Oct killed1inKoraputdistrict.Grenadeblast29OctinAssamkilled 1,injured5.


    Hardcore Maoist area commander arrested in Simdega, ANI, 27 Oct. 2012.

    India(non-Kashmir) PolicearrestedseveralMaoistsinWestMid-

    e-Tayyaba(LeT)19Octopenedfireonarmyconvoyandhotel nearSrinagarkilling2.2killed,3injured21OctinLeTgunfight withpoliceinBaramulladistrict.Suspectedmilitants5Octthrew grenadeatCentralReservePoliceForce(CRPF)bunkerinBaramulladistrict,3policeinjured.Police1Octkilled5suspected MujahidininGanderbaldistrict,23Octarrested3militantsin Kulgamdistrictforallegedthreatsagainstvillageleaders.3civilianskilled16OctwhenPakistanitroopsreportedlyopenedfire alongLineofControl(LoC)duetoconstructionofnewforward postsbyIndiainBaramulladistrict.Buddhist-Muslimtensions eruptedlateOctinChenabValley,Kargildistrict.


    Ominous signs in Kashmir, Global-Views, 20 Oct. 2012.

    Kashmir MilitantsfromPakistan-basedextremistgroupLashkar-

    sincereleasefromjail;mainoppositionUNPpreventedmembers fromattending.Defenceministry17Octannouncedreleaseof TamilTigerleaderSelvarasaPathmanathan,detainedsinceAug 2009andwantedinIndiaforassassinationofformerPMRajv Gandhi.Universityteachers11Octended3-monthstrikecalling forincreasedpublicfundingofeducation,higherwagesandend topoliticisationofuniversities.HundredsofBuddhistmonks, supporters,marched4OctinColombotocondemnattackson BuddhistsinBangladesh.


    Lanka politics threatens ties with India, Times of India, 23 Oct. 2012.

    South East Asia


    Indonesia InCentralSulawesi,police17Octfound2police

    Nepal Partiesmissed16Octdeadlinetosettlepoliticalimpasse

    throughconsensus,committedtonewmid-Novdeadline.Most majorpartiesnowfavourelectionofnewConstituentAssembly (CA);PresidentYadav28Octalsoencouragedelections.Parties stilldisagreeoncompositionofgovt;oppositionpartiesinsist PMBaburamBhattaraistepdown.36indigenousleaderswho quitNepaliCongress(NC)andover500ethnicleaderswhoquit CommunistPartyofNepal-UML(CPN-UML)discussingforming newparty.7Madhesi,indigenousparties1OctformedFederal DemocraticForum-NepaltopromoteMadhesiandindigenous issues.OHCHR8Octpublishedreportonallegedhumanrights violationsduringcivilwar,releasedTransitionalJusticeReferenceArchiveonconflict-relatedincidents;govtdismissedreport asirrelevant.SupremeCourtaskedgovttoexplaindecisionto promoteColRajuBasnettoBrigadierGeneralafterallegations ofhisinvolvementintorture,forceddisappearanceofMaoists duringcivilwar.
    The chakravyuh of politics, Kathmandu Post, 17 Oct. 2012. For latest report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N233, Nepals Constitution (I): Evolution Not Revolution, 27 Aug. 2012.

    investigatorsdeadnearallegedterroristtrainingcamp,arrested3 suspectedofinvolvement.CarbombexplodedinPosoearlyOct, noinjuries;2killedinbombexplosions22Oct;police31Octkilled 1terrorsuspect,arrested2,seizedexplosives.InPapua,policesaid theyseizedexplosivesallegedlyheldbyNationalCommitteefor WestPapua(KNPB)inraidsinWamena(29Sept,13Oct)and Timika(19Oct).8injuredinclashesbetweenKNPBprotesters andpolice23OctinManokwari.ProvincialelectionscommissionannouncedPapuagovernorselectiontobeheld29Jan2013. AuthoritiesinAceh23Octcloseddown9Christianchurches,6 BuddhisttemplesfollowingpressurefromIslamicDefendersFront hardliners,citinglackofpermits.11suspectedterroristswithlinks toSalafigroupandCentralJavanetworksarrestedlatemonthfor allegedlyplottingattacksonforeigntargetsincludingU.S.embassy. 14killed,9injured28-30OctinclashesinLampungprovince;over 1,500police,500soldiersdeployedtocontainviolence.
    Indonesias resilience faces test of extremism, Straits Times, 31 Oct. 2012. For latest report, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N138, Indonesia: Defying the State, 30 Aug. 2012.

    KhyberPakhtunkhwaprovince,2otherswounded;Maulana Fazlullah-ledPakistanTalibanfactionclaimedresponsibility. YousafzaiairliftedtoUKformedicaltreatment.PresidentZardari 22OctcautionedagainstmilitaryactionagainstPakistanTaliban. InteriorMinisterRehmanMalikearlyOctsaidPakistanhadno objectiontousingdronesagainstmilitants,butcalledforU.S.to agreetocommonstrategy,sharedronetechnology.


    Drones will be used responsibly, Pakistan assures U.S., Dawn, 8 Oct. 2012

    Pakistan TeenageactivistMalalaYousafzaishot9OctinMingora,

    Myanmar RenewedviolencebrokeoutinvolvingMuslimand

    New Crisis Group Asia Report N237, Pakistan: No End To Humanitarian Crises, 9 Oct. 2012. Three successive years of devastating floods threatening the lives of millions, coupled with the displacement of hundreds of thousands due to military operations and militancy, gives Pakistans radical Islamist groups opportunities to recruit and increases the potential for conflict. SriLanka DefenceministerRajapaksamid-Octrepeatedlycalled

    fornationalreferendumtoabolish13thamendmenttoconstitution whichgrantslimiteddevolutionofpowertoprovinces,angering Indiangovt.Billtoexpandpowersofeconomicdevelopment ministryatexpenseofprovincialcouncilsawaitingSupremeCourt judgmentonconstitutionality.JudicialServicesCommission secretaryassaulted7Oct,promptingstrikebyjuristsprotesting increasinggovtattacksonindependenceofjudiciary.Leading oppositionpoliticianSarathFonseka18Octheldfirstpoliticalrally


    6

    BuddhistcommunitiesinRakhineState21Oct;officialfigures reportdeathtollfromlatestoutbreakofinter-communaltensions, mostlyinvolvingMuslimRohingyaandBuddhistRakhine,tobeat least89,with136injured,5,351housestorched;morethan30,000 officiallydisplaced.Authorities24Octimposedcurfewinatleast2 towns,PresidentTheinSein25Octorderedmoresecurityforces. Govt30OctrejectedASEANproposaltoholdtripartitetalkswith UNtocontainRakhineviolence.Thousandsofprotestersgathered 30OctinRamreeIslandtodemandextrasecuritymeasures,separationofMuslimsfromBuddhistneighbourhoods;1killedafter policeallegedlyfiredondemonstrators.Hundredsofmonksearly OctprotestedinYangonandSittweagainstanti-Buddhistunrest inRakhineStateandBangladesh.TheinSein15Octwithdrew permissionforOrganisationofIslamicCooperation(OIC)to openliaisonofficeinYangonfollowingBuddhistdemonstrations. DeadlyclashescontinuedbetweengovtandKachinIndependence Army(KIA)inHpakantjademiningareaofKachinState.Kachin IndependenceOrganisation(KIO),govtrepresentativesmet30 OctonSino-Myanmarborderforlatestroundofpeacetalks;KIO sentlow-leveldelegation.TensionswithinKarenNationalUnion (KNU)asgroup3Octsacked3seniormembers;reinstatedthem29 Oct(oneposthumously).AungSanSuuKyi(ASSK)8Octdeclared NationalLeagueforDemocracysintentiontotrytoamendcon-

    stitutiontoallowhertorunforpresidentin2015;TheinSeinsaid willacceptheraspresidentifelected.U.S.PresidentObama5Oct signedbillliftingrestrictionsoninternationalfinancialinstitutions lendingtoMyanmar.U.S.delegationincludinghigh-rankingmilitaryvisitedmid-Octforrightsdialoguewithleadership,military; seniorU.S.officialsaidcountryonrighttrackendingmilitary tieswithDPRK.


    UN warning as death toll soars in Rakhine state, BBC, 26 Oct. 2012.

    New Crisis Group Asia Report N235, Malaysias Coming Election: Beyond Communalism?, 1 Oct. 2012. Demographic and social change, easing of authoritarian controls, a growing civil society and economic uncertainty are shaking the communal foundations of Malaysian politics and making the outcome of its coming election unusually unpredictable.

    Europe
    Balkans
    Bosnia Inlocalelections7OctBosniakPartyofDemocratic

    IslamicLiberationFront(MILF);signedbychiefnegotiators15 Oct.Frameworkagreementenvisionscreationofnewautonomous regionalgovernmentcalledtheBangsamoro,replacingfailed AutonomousRegioninMuslimMindanao;conditionsinclude draftingoflawtocreateregion,tobeapprovedbyCongress,followedbyplebisciteandMILF-ledtransitionbeforeelectionsin 2016.Furtherdetails,particularlypolicinganddecommissioningofMILFforces,tobediscussedmid-Nov.Agreementwidely welcomed,thoughcriticisedbybreakawayBangsamoroIslamic FreedomMovement(BIFM)andMoroNationalLiberationFront founderNurMisuari,whoorganisedrallyagainstagreement21 OctinDavao.BombsstruckMindanao10,11,18Oct;2killed. Atleast4killedin18OctMILF-BIFMclashesinMaguindanao. 3soldierskilled13OctinattackbysuspectedAbuSayyafGroup (ASG)inBasilan;4marines,10ASGkilled28OctinSulu.Police midOctarrested2suspectedAbuSayyafleadersincentral Mindanao.Govt-NewPeoplesArmy(NPA)clasheskilled13in Mindanao,WesternandEasternVisayas.Chinesevice-FMFu YingvisitedPhilippines19Octaspartofefforttomendrelations afterincreasedtensionsoverSouthChinaSea.
    Bryony Lau, South Philippines Best Chance for Peace?, Diplomat, 16 Oct. 2012. It could be peace, Economist, 13 Oct. 2012.

    Philippines PresidentAquino7OctannounceddealwithMoro

    Action(SDA)won37municipalities;nationalistSerbianDemocraticParty(SDS)anditsminorcoalitionpartnerswon26,up from13;RepublikaSrpskapresidentDodiksSNSDwononly19, downfrom41.CroatHDZwon13,andHDZ19903.Voterturnout at56.3%,higherthan2008polls.CentralElectionCommission receivedreportsofwidespreadfraud.Disputeovervotingsystem meantnoelectionsinMostar.Followingelections,predominantly BosniakSDPexpelledrivalSDAfromstategovt,formednew coalition.AnnualECprogressreportcriticisedlackofprogress onpoliticalcriteria,institutionalreform.U.S.SecStateClinton urgedreformsduringlateOctvisit.
    Bosnia elite fears EU rule of law, experts say, Balkan Insight, 12 Oct. 2012.

    Kosovo PMThaciandSerbianPMDaimetinBrussels19Oct:

    purportedlyinretaliationforlateSeptkillingofMuslimcouple includedshootingson6,8,9Oct;15dead,4injured.16injured ingrenadeattack27Oct;5policeinjuredbybombexplosion30 Oct.ManyshopsrefusedtoopenFridaysinresponsetoinsurgent threats.InNarathiwat,3bombsexplodedinTakBai20Oct,and insurgentsfiredonpolicestationanddetachmentoftroops;1 killed,8injured.21Octbombblastsinjured8soldiers,killed1. InYala,3injuredinbombblast6Oct;9insurgentssurrendered toauthorities2Oct.NewInteriorMinisterJarupongRuangsuwan electedleaderofrulingPheuThaiParty(PTP)afterDeputyPM YongyutWichaiditresignedlateSept.KingBhumibolAdulyadej 28Octendorsedcabinetreshuffle,strengtheningPMYingluck Shinawatraspositioninadvanceofanticipatedcensuremotion. 10,000supportersofpro-monarchyPitakSiam(ProtectSiam) groupdemonstratedagainstgovt28Oct,promisedfurtherrallies.
    Thailands secessionist Muslim insurgency escalates, National, 20 Oct. 2012.

    Thailand Violenceinsouthintensified.InPattani,severalattacks

    discussedcontinuationofEU-mediateddialogueonnormalisation ofrelations.DaitoldSerbianmedianochangeonSerbiaspositionofneverrecognisingindependence,butsaidtimeforahistoric agreement,Serbiareadyforfinalstatustalks.Followed10Oct resumptionoftechnicaldialogue,includingimplementationofDec 2011bordermanagementagreement;workinggroupsnegotiated implementationactionplan12Oct.Self-Determinationmovement protestersopposedtotalksclashedwithpolice22Oct.ECadopted FeasibilityStudyforKosovo,confirmedcountrylargelyreadyto opennegotiationsonStabilisationandAssociationAgreement. Sporadicviolencecontinuedinnorth;4arrestedfollowing7Oct attackonbordercheckpointbyterroristMovementforFreedom.
    Belgrade, Pristina relaunch dialogue amid tension, SE Times, 9 Oct. 2012. For latest report, see Crisis Group Europe Report N218, Setting Kosovo Free: Remaining Challenges, 10 Sept. 2012.

    Timor-Leste In2OctlettertoUNSGBan,PMGusmoexplained

    reportfor4thyearrecommendedstartofaccessionnegotiations, pendingsolutiontoongoingnamedisputewithGreece.5ethnic AlbaniansformallychargedwithAprilkillingof5ethnicMacedonians.TensofthousandsmarchedinSkopje28Octcalling forearlyelections.


    Macedonias brand new foreign office, Economist, 12 Oct. 2012.

    Macedonia Govt3Octsurvivedno-confidencevote.ECprogress

    govtnotinterestedinUNMITfollow-onmission,askedforend toUNSCconsiderationofsituationinTimor-Leste.PlannedDec withdrawalwillmarkendtoover13yearsofcontinuouspolitical/ peacekeepingmissions.


    UN no longer needed, says premier, Eurasia Review, 5 Oct. 2012.

    Serbia ECprogressreportconcludedSerbiacontinuestofulfil

    politicalcriteriaandconditionsofStabilisationandAssociation process,butcalledforvisibleandsustainableimprovementin relationswithKosovo.PMDaisaidupsetthatreportincluded requestforSerbiatorespectKosovosterritorialintegrity.


    EC references to Kosovo upset Belgrade, SE Times, 16 Oct. 2012. 7

    Caucasus
    Armenia AheadofFeb2013elections,authoritieschargedmajor

    NorthCaucasus(Russia) NationalAnti-TerroristCommittee

    oppositioncandidateMPVartanOskanian,formerforeignministerandpossiblecontenderforpresidency,withmoneylaundering. Oskanianaccusedofembezzlingmorethan$1.4millionfrom donationmadebyU.S.businessmantohisCivilitasFoundation. Oskanianstrippedofimmunityfromcriminalprosecutionin 2Octparliamentaryvoteboycottedbyallpartiesexceptruling coalition.ManycondemnchargesagainstOskanian,saytrial politicallymotivated.


    Playing the corruption card as presidential race starts, Eurasianet, 11 Oct. 2012.

    Azerbaijan Court9Octjailed22peopleconvictedofplottingto

    killforeigncitizens,organisingattacksonU.S.andIsraelitargets; followslateSeptsentencingof3menforplottingtokillteachers atJewishschool.SuspectsaccusedoflinkswithIranianspecial services.FollowingrecentescalationintensionswithIran,apparent rapprochementwith16OctmeetingbetweenPresidentAliyevand IransPresidentAhmadinejad.Around200protestersclashedwith police5Octduringdemonstrationagainsthijabbaninschools. Officialsaccusedexternalgroupsoforganisingdisturbances,but localShiitegroupreportedlyclaimedresponsibility.LateSeptarrest ofactivistZaurQurbanlicriticisedbyrightsactivists.
    Does Baku face evolving opposition?, Eurasianet, 25 Oct. 2012.

    (NAC)21OctreportedlargeoperationinNCinvolvingFederal SecurityServiceandInteriorMinistryforcesinrecentmonths resultedin49militantskilledinKabardino-BalkariaandDagestan, including9leaders.At16OctmeetingonNCcounter-insurgency effort,PresidentPutinpraisedsecurityandlawenforcement agenciesforeliminating300militantsinrecentmonths,calledfor increasedeffortstowipeoutNCmilitants.Russianmediareported federalarmyunitshavejoinedcounter-insurgencyeffortforfirst timesince2006;NACdeniedthis,althoughdefenceminister recentlybecamememberofNAC.OngoingviolenceinDagestan withoveradozensuspectedmilitantskilledinclasheswithsecurity forces/policeearlymonthincludinginMakhachkala,Buinaksk district,Khasavyurtdistrict.ProminentSouthDagestanSalafi religiousleaderkilledtogetherwithbrotherandfather30Oct. Dagestantopinvestigatorsurvivedapparentassassinationattempt 14Oct.Securityforces9Octconductedairstrikesagainstmilitants nearMakhachkala.PMMedvedevvisitedDagestan2Oct,pledged additionalsocio-economicassistancetoNC.Securityforces12Oct reportedpoliceofficerand2suspectedmilitantskilledinspecial operationinNalchik,capitalofKabardino-Balkaria.4policekilled bysuspectedmilitantsduringclashinIngushetia3Oct.Ingushgovt launchedhotlineforinsurgentswhowanttoreturntopeacefullife. 2militantsand1FSBofficerkilled23Octduringcounter-terrorism operationinKazan,capitalofTatarstanrepublic.
    Russian aircraft bomb Caucasus targets, Financial Times, 9 Oct. 2012.

    Ivanishviliclaimedvictoryin1Octparliamentaryelections;polls hailedashistoric,markingfirstdemocratictransferofpowersince independence.GDclaimed55%ofvote;PresidentSaakashvilis UnitedNationalMovement(UNM),inpowersince2003Rose revolution,gained40%.GDtooccupy85of150seatsinparliament,UNM65.Saakashviliconcededdefeat2Oct.International observerspraisedpeacefulconductofelections.NewPMIvanishviliinitiallycalledforSaakashvili,whosetermendsOct2013, toresignimmediately,thenrescinded,saidreadyfordialogue. Parliament25Octapprovednewcabinet,comprisedmostlyof technocrats.Ivanishvili24Octsaidwillquitpoliticsin18months. NewMinisterforReintegrationPaataZakareishvilioutlinednew strategyforconflictregions,includingdirectnegotiationswithde factoauthorities.Policyofnotdiscussingrecognitionofbreakaway regionstocontinue.Abkhazauthoritiesissuedreportalleging Georgianinvolvementinterroristactsaimedatdestabilising Galiregionin2012,deniedbyTbilisi;independentinvestigations impossibleasAbkhaziaandRussiahaveevictedinternational organisationsfromregion,refusetoallowEUmonitorstoenter entityorlookintoclaims.Changeingovtprompteddiscussions aboutrelationswithRussia,butnewFMquicklyruledoutresumptionintieswhileMoscowcontinuestorecognizeSouthOssetia, Abkhazia.GDleadersstressGeorgiaspro-Westernorientation andemphasisonEuro-Atlanticintegrationwillcontinue,but improvementoftieswithRussiastillagoal.Instatementwelcomed byMoscow,IvanishviliconfirmedGeorgiawilltakepartin2014 SochiOlympics.
    Sabine Freizer, Breaking the Monopoly on Power in Georgia, One Step at a Time, Todays Zaman, 3 Oct. 2012. Over to you, Bidzina, Economist, 6 Oct. 2012.

    Georgia GeorgianDream(GD)coalitionledbybillionaireBidzina

    New Crisis Group Europe Report N220, The North Caucasus: The Challenges of Integration (I), Ethnicity and Conflict, 19 Oct. 2012; and Crisis Group Europe Report N221, The North Caucasus: The Challenges of Integration (II), Islam, the Insurgency and Counter-Insurgency, 19 Oct. 2012. Russias North Caucasus region is Europes deadliest conflict today, with some 574 deaths already this year, and the killing is unlikely to end soon. Nagorno-Karabakh(Azerbaijan) TensionsbetweenArmenia

    andAzerbaijancontinued:ArmenianPresidentSargsyan6Oct saidAzerbaijaninitiatingfreshpreparationsforwaroverN-K; saidBakubuyinghorrendousamountsofweapons,preparing forarmedresolutiontoconflict.Bakudismissedstatement,yet announceditwouldincreasedefencebudgetfor2013byalmost 9%to$2billion,notincluding$1.7bnspentonothersecurity forcedetachments.Armeniandefenceforcesconducted2-week anti-aircraftexerciseinvolving45,000soldiersandincludingunits fromN-K.U.S.open-sourceanalysiscentrerevealedArmenia hasupgradedandrepositionedairdefencesystemstocoverN-K, Armenia.Bothcountriesnowclaimtopossessoffensivemissiles with300km+range.Controversycontinuesoverlong-postponed openingofN-Kairport;Turkeythreatenedtocloseairspaceto ArmenianaircraftifArmeniabeginsflightsthere.
    Ramil Safarov and the making of an anti-hero, Eurasianet, 5 Oct. 2012.

    Eastern Europe
    Belarus EUFMs15Octextendedsanctionsagainstindividuals andcompanieslinkedtogovt.
    EU renews Belarus sanctions due to human rights concerns, Reuters, 15 Oct. 2012.

    ofRegionswon30%ofvoteinparliamentaryelections,likelyto controlatleast187outof450seatsandleadparliamentarymajority;FatherlandpartyofjailedoppositionleaderTymoshenkowon 25%/103seats.OSCE29Octsaidvotemarredbyabuseofpower andexcessiveroleofmoney,saiddemocraticprogressappears tohavereversedinUkraine;U.S.SecStateClintoncalledelections astepbackward.


    Ukraine election reversed democracy, OSCE says, BBC, 29 Oct. 2012.

    Ukraine PreliminaryresultsshowPresidentYanukovychsParty

    Latin America
    Bolivia PresidentMorales7Octsignedcontracttoresumecon-

    testedconstructionofroadthroughindigenousterritoryTIPNIS, despiteongoingindigenousresistance.
    Morales firma contrato para reanudar obras de ruta resistida por indgenas, Infolatam, 7 Oct. 2012.

    Western Europe/Mediterranean
    Cyprus SpeakinginnorthCyprus,TurkeysEUMinisterBa16

    OctsaidrecognitionofGreekCypriotsbyotherstatesmeansnothing,impliedTurkeyhadnointentionofgivingVarosha(Mara) andMorphou(Gzelyurt)backtoGreekCypriotsaspartofa solution.SeveralprotestsinsouthafterTurkishCypriots30Sept arrestedGreekCypriotpolicewhohadchasedTurkishCypriot youthintonorth.PresidentChristofiasaskedUNtointervene; policemenreleased3Oct.


    Cyprus celebrates independence with no solution in sight, SE Times, 3 Oct. 2012.

    arsonstrikesonmorethan20schools,severalincidentsofkidnappingsofteachersandstudents.Octdeathtollfromviolence betweenPKKandarmyatleast52accordingtoCrisisGroups informalminimumcount,downfromSept.Protestersinsupportofhunger-strikingKurdishprisonersclashedwithpolice inDiyarbakr,Istanbul30Oct.Turkish-Syrianrelationsfurther deterioratedasSyrianshellingacrossborderescalatedtohighest levelyet.MortarshellfiredbySyriangovtforceskilled5civilians inbordertownAkcakale3Oct;Turkeyrespondedwithatleast 12hoursofartilleryfire.Exchangeoffirecontinuedsporadically throughoutOctasadditionalshellslandedinTurkey.Parliament 4Octauthorisedcross-borderraids;PMErdoaninsistedmove wasdeterrentnotmandateforwar,butharshwarrhetoriccoming fromotherseniorgovtfigures.TensionsincreasedasTurkey10Oct forcedSyrianpassengerplaneenroutefromMoscowtoDamascus tolandinAnkara,onsuspicionitwastransportingweaponsequipmentforSyriangovt,claimeditfoundillegalmilitaryequipment. Syria13OctclosedairspacetoTurkishplanes,reciprocatedby Ankara14Oct.Refugeesituationworsenedasgovtmid-month reportedover100,000Syriansin13campsalongborder;around 14,000reportedlywaitingonSyriansideofborder.Military27 OctdeniedpresenceofU.S.troopsaftertopU.S.commanderssaid militarypersonnelsenttohelpdealwithspilloverofSyriancrisis, fightagainstPKK.ECProgressReport10OctcriticisedTurkeys relationswithRepublicofCyprus,Kurdishissue,pressfreedom, lackofconsultationinlegislativeprocess.
    Terrorist PKK starts violent campaign against schools and children, Todays Zaman, 21 Oct. 2012. For latest report, see Crisis Group Europe Report N219, Turkey: The PKK and a Kurdish Settlement, 11 Sept. 2012.

    Turkey PKKattacksonciviliantargetsinsoutheastintensified;

    FARCchiefnegotiatorstokedcontroversybycriticisinggovts effortstohandbacklandseizedduringconflictasatrap,also calledforprofounddemilitarisationandradicalsocio-economic reforms.BothpartiesagreedtoresumetalksinCuba15Nov.Hostilitiesongoingassecurityforces1OctcapturedFARCsSouthern BlocintelligencechiefNinfaLozadainCasanaredept,and34th frontcommanderFernandoSalazarPalaciosaliasElNichein Medelln.FARC15OctattackonsoldiersinAraucadeptleft2 civiliansdead,19Octkilled5soldiersinPutumayo,20Octkilled 5soldiersnearEcuadorborder,23Octkilled3soldiersinArauca dept,29Octkilled6policeinCaucadept.NationalLiberation Army(ELN)8Octwounded3soldiersnearVenezuelaborder. LeaderofdissidentMetafactionofNewIllegalArmedGroup (NIAG)ERPAC,JosAntonioLpezaliasJean-Claude,17Oct surrenderedtoauthorities.17NIAGRastrojosmembers22Oct surrenderedinValledelCaucadept.Argentinianauthorities30 OctarrestedNIAGUrabeosleaderHenrydeJesusLpezalias MiSangre.
    Louise Arbour, Will Colombia Have Peace at Last?, Miami Herald, 3 Oct. 2012. Colombia and Farc negotiators launch Norway peace talks, BBC, 18 Oct. 2012. For latest report, see Crisis Group Latin America Report N45, Colombia: Peace at Last?, 25 Sept. 2012.

    Colombia Peacetalksbetweengovt,FARCbeganinOslo18Oct;

    Ecuador InternationalPressInstitute23OctsaidEcuadorsprivate

    mediaoutletsbeingtargetedbygovt.Armedforcesmid-month arrested5suspectedmembersofColombianarmedgroups,handed overtoColombianauthorities


    Ecuador in the midst of a press freedom crisis, claims IPI in-situ report, MercoPress, 24 Oct. 2012.

    Guatemala Armycoloneland8soldiersarrestedfor4Octkilling

    of6indigenousMayanvillagersprotestinghighelectricityprices inTotonicapndept.PresidentPrezfirstdeniedmilitaryinvolvement,blamedshootingonunidentifiedassailants,thenapologised afterinvestigatorsfoundshellcasingsfrommilitaryammunition. Prez16Octsaidarmywouldnolongerinterveneduringprotests butreaffirmedpolicyofusingmilitarytobackuppoliceinhigh crimeareasandtocombatorganisedcrime,especiallyalongborder. InteriorMinisterLpez24Octannouncedpolicewillbeequipped withelectronicchipstotrackmovements.


    Guatemalan soldiers arrested over Totonicapan protest killings, BBC, 12 Oct. 2012.

    Haiti ThousandsofoppositionsupportersmarchedinPort-au-

    Princeandothercities30Sept,6,8,14,17OcttodemandPresident Martellysresignation.PoliceviolentlydispersedprotestinPetitGove4Oct.1personreportedlykilledbygunshotduringprotest inFort-Libert8Oct;protestersclashedwithpolice,laterburned


    9

    policestation.UNSecurityCouncil17OctrenewedMINUSTAH mandateforanotheryear.HurricaneSandyleft51reporteddead, 200,000displaced,estimatesofmillionsofdollarsindamages.


    U.N. peacekeepers mandate in Haiti renewed for a year, Miami Herald, 12 Oct. 2012. For latest report, see Crisis Group Latin America/Caribbean Report N44, Towards a Post-MINUSTAH Haiti: Making an Effective Transition, 2 Aug. 2012.

    22OctinTariqal-Jadideh,Beirut.PMMakati16Octcondemned Hizbollahs11OctlaunchofIran-manufacturedreconnaissance droneoverIsraelandOPT.Continuedreportedviolationsof LebaneseairspaceinsouthbyIsraeliwarplanes.


    Why Lebanon isnt headed for civil war, Christian Science Monitor, 24 Oct. 2012.

    U.S.borderagent;7OctreportedlykilledleaderofLosZetas cartel,HeribertoLazcanoLazcanoaliasElLazca,inCoahuila state;samedayarrestedSalvadorAlfonsoMartnezEscobedo, suspectedofplanningkillingsofdozensofCentralandSouth Americanmigrants;23Octkilled7allegedZetasinZacatecas state.UNhumanrightschiefPillaycriticisedU.S.borderpatrol forexcessiveuseofforcefollowing10OctshootingofMexican teen.AmnestyInternationalreportedalarmingincreaseinuse oftorturebyauthorities.


    El final del capo llamado Verdugo, El Pas, 14 Oct. 2012.

    Mexico Securityforces3Octarrested2suspectedofkilling

    Venezuela Presidentialelectionheld7Octwithnomajorincidents

    reported;PresidentChvezre-electedfor4thtermwith55.3%of vote,defeatingoppositionHenriqueCapriles(44.1%).Govt16 OctexpelledallremainingParaguayandiplomatsfollowingJuly withdrawalofambassadorsfrombothcountriesamidtensions overJuneimpeachmentofParaguayanpresidentLugo.


    Hugo Chavez celebrates re-election in Venezuela, BBC, 8 Oct. 2012.

    deathtollsfrequentlyexceeding100perday,ongoinginternaland externaldisplacement.CeasefirebrokeredbyUN/ArabLeague envoyBrahimiforEidal-Adhafestival26-30Octrepeatedly brokenwithextensivefightingacrosscountry.Surgeinregime airstrikeslateOct;Syrianrightsactivistsclaimed29Octworst dayyetofregimeairraids.Rebelscontinuedattemptstoestablish safezoneinnorth,9OctrecapturedstrategictownMaarratalNuman;battlefornearbyWadial-Deifbaseongoing.AsEgyptian contactgrouponSyriaappearedtostall,Qatar15Octcalledfor well-armedpeacekeepingforce.Mid-monthformationofcommitteeofwisemenbyformerSyrianNationalCouncilpresident Ghaliounmetwithwidespreadcynicism.Atleast30killedinfirst reportedcaseofSyrian-ArabrebelsexchangingfirewithSyrian KurdsinAleppo24Oct;clashesongoing.TurkishPKKthreatened interventionifclashespersist.ReportsemergedearlyOctoflate SeptclashbetweenrivalAlawiteclansinal-Qardaha,President Assadshometown.StateTV30OctreportedterroristassassinationofairforcegeneralAbdullahMahmoudAl-Khalidi;some activistsassertregimeresponsible,claimKhalidiwantedtodefect, regimeactedinanticipation.Concernsoverregionalinstability exacerbatedbyongoingcross-borderfirewithTurkey(seeTurkey).
    Airstrikes, car bombs in Syria leave brief cease-fire in tatters, Christian Science Monitor, 29 Oct. 2012.

    Syria Fightingbetweengovtandrebelscontinuedwithreported

    Middle East and North Africa


    Eastern Mediterranean
    Israel/OccupiedPalestinianTerritories EmirofQatarvisited23

    New Crisis Group Middle East Report N131, Tentative Jihad: Syrias Fundamentalist Opposition, 12 Oct. 2012. The presence of Salafi groups among Syrias armed opposition is an irrefutable, damaging yet not necessarily irreversible trend. Breaking this cycle will require the opposition to curb their influence, members of the international community to coordinate their policies and a perilous military stalemate to transition to a political solution.

    Oct,breakingHamassisolation;promised$400mnaid,calledfor Hamas-Fatahunity.Long-delayedPAmunicipalelectionsheld 20OctinWBin93of353municipalities;Hamasboycottedpolls whichsawlowturnout.Fatah21Octannouncedvictorybutfailed tosecuremajoritiesinkeycitiesincludingRamallah.SeveralPalestinianskilledinescalatingexchangesbetweenIsraelandGazan militants,includingHamas;Egypt24Octmediatedceasefire,but violenceresumed.IsraeliPMNetanyahu9Octcalledearlyelectionsfollowingcoalitionsfailuretoagreebudget;electionssetfor Jan2013.Govt18OctapprovedexpansionofGilosettlementin occupiedEastJerusalem,drawinginternationalprotests.Israel20 OctinterceptedGaza-boundshipcarrying30activists,including 5EuropeanMPs.
    Hamas policy on attacking Israel has changed, Haaretz, 24 Oct. 2012.

    Gulf
    Bahrain Govt30Octannouncedbanonallrallies,gatherings,

    Lebanon CarbombinBeirut19Octkilled3,includingintelligence

    chiefGeneralWissamal-Hassan,triggeringdemonstrationsand clashes.OppositionallegedSyrianinvolvement,calledforgovt resignation.DozensclashedwithsecurityforcesinBeirut21 Octfollowingal-Hassansfuneral.Fightingsamedaybetween predominantlypro-andanti-Syrianregimeneighbourhoodsin Tripolikilled10,injuredatleast50;quelledbyarmyintervention 22Oct.1killed,6injuredinclashesbetweengunmenandsoldiers


    10

    citingsecurityreasons.ProtestersinJidhafsclashedwithpoliceat funeralofactivistMuhammadMushaimawhodiedincustody2 Oct.Police12Octviolentlydispersedanti-govtprotestersledby activistZainabal-KhawajainManama,samedaypermitteddemonstrationbyoppositional-WefaqinWestManama.Policeman killed19OctinexplosioninEker,southofManama,7arrested; clashesbrokeout20-21Octinvariousvillagesafterpoliceblocked rightsactivists,medicsattemptingtoenterEkertoprotestsiege followingreportsofviolentraidsandarrestsbysecurityforces,3 activistsdetainedincludingZainabal-Khawaja;authorities21Oct firedteargastodisperseover200protesters.KingHamad14Oct calledfornationaldialogue,urgedgovttoconsidercriminalising everythingthatharmsourunityandthesecurityofthepopulation.Court1Octrejectedappealsof9medicsarrestedduring2011 uprising,23Octacquittedpolicewomanchargedwithtorturing journalistduringuprising.

    US denounces Bahrain ban on public demonstrations, says its concerned about human rights, Washington Post, 31 Oct. 2012.

    currencydepreciation;50peoplereportedlyarrested.EU15 Octapprovedadditionalsanctionsforgovtsnon-compliance overnuclearprogram.Judiciary21,24OctblockedPresident Ahmadinejadsrequesttovisithispressadvisorimprisonedlast month.


    A red line and a reeling rial, Economist, 6 Oct. 2012.

    Iran Police3Octviolentlydisperseddemonstratorsprotesting

    pendedfrompost16Oct,andotherbankofficialsovercurrency manipulationallegations.PMal-Maliki5OctrequestedelectoralcommissionplanforAprilprovincialelections.Shootings andbombingstargetingShiacommunitiesthroughoutcountry 27-28Octleftatleast43dead,92injured.9killed,26wounded 23OctinattackonShiiteneighbourhoodsinBaghdad.Atleast 17killed20OctinBaghdadinbombingnearShiaMuslimshrine andshootingstargetinggovtofficial;3killedsamedayinattack onMosulpolicecheckpoint.Govt2Octannouncedstoppageof Syria-boundIranianplanesinBaghdadforweaponsinspections. GovtagreedweapondealswithU.S.,Russia,CzechRepublic,as partofprogramtocontrolairspace.Al-Qaeda-linkedIslamicState ofIraq5Octclaimedresponsibilityfor30Septbombattacksand 27SeptTikritjailbreak.
    Joost Hiltermann, A Kurdish Wedge Between Iraq and Turkey, Real Clear World, 24 Oct. 2012. What is behind Iraqs arms deal with Russia?, Al Jazeera, 10 Oct. 2012.

    Iraq ArrestwarrantsissuedforCentralBankgovernor,sus-

    killed16soldiersinattackonAbyanprovincearmybase.1militant,3tribesmenalliedtoarmykilledinsuspectedAQAPattack onmilitarycheckpointinAbyanprovince16Oct.ReportedU.S. dronestrikesinsouthkilledatleast12suspectedAQAPmilitants. Securityforces6Octreportedlyfoiledplottobombjointgovt-U.S. airbaseinLahejprovince.3AQAPleadersreportedlykilled2Oct inraidinAden;courtsamedaysentenced2AQAPmilitantsto deathforkillingofmilitary,securityleaders.AQAPmilitants9Oct beheaded3peopleinMaaribafteraccusingthemofspying.Iraqi militaryadvisortoarmyassassinatedinSanaa16Oct;security officeratU.S.embassyassassinated11Oct.Familiesofprotesters killedduring2011anti-regimerallyfiledchargesagainstmembers offormerregime,includingoustedPresidentSaleh.Gaspipeline feedingcountrysonlygasexportterminalsabotaged30Oct.
    April Alley, Triage for a Fracturing Yemen, Foreign Policy, 31 Oct. 2012. Yemeni debate over drones emerges after Salehs fall, Reuters, 17 Oct. 2012.

    Yemen Al-QaedaintheArabPeninsula(AQAP)militants19Oct

    North Africa
    Algeria Parliament2OctadoptednewPMSellalsreformplan;

    Jordan KingAbdullah4Octdissolvedparliament,calledforearly

    electionsbeforeend2012,10OctappointedAbdullahNsouras newPM;thousandsofIslamistsdemonstratedinAmman5Oct callingforfurtherreforms.SoldierkilledatSyrianborder22Oct, severalarrested.11militantsarrested21OctforallegedlyplanningattacksonWesterndiplomats,shoppingcentresinAmman.


    A kingdom divided?, Al Jazeera, 6 Oct. 2012.

    govtauthorised5newpoliticalparties.MinisterforMaghreb/ AfricanaffairsAbdelkaderMessahel7-8OctvisitedSahelcountries,saidreadytonegotiatewithgroupsnotengagedinterrorist/ criminalactivities;govtexpectedtodeploy9additionalborder guardunitsalongsouthernborderbeforemonthsend.Army 15OctkilledAQIMexternalrelationschief BekaBoualemin Boumerdsprovince.U.S.SecStateClinton29OctmetPresident Bouteflika,askedAlgeriatosupportmilitaryinterventioninMali.


    LAlgrie ouvre la porte une opration militaire au nord du Mali, Le Monde, 22 Oct. 2012.

    Egypt Court23Octreferredcasechallengingconstitutionality

    Kuwait Thousandsprotestedmid-tolate-Octagainstgovtchanges

    toelectionlaw,criticisedasattempttolimitoppositionsprospects at1Decparliamentaryelections.Govtchangedlawdespiteit beingconfirmedbyConstitutionalCourt25Sept.Scoresinjured, 15detainedinclasheswithsecurityforces,including3former oppositionMPs.Thousandsofprotestersend-monthdemanding releaseofoppositionleaderMusallamal-Barrack,defying23Oct banonprotests;clashedwithsecurityforces.


    Kuwait protests challenge ruling family, Alertnet, 24 Oct. 2012.

    ofpoliticalactivistsincludinganti-regimepoetAdelal-Labad, arrested11Oct.InteriorMinistry12Octwarnedagainstfuture rallies.19charged17Octoverparticipationin23Septpeaceful protestoutsideprisoninQassimprovinceseekingreleaseoffamily members.HumanRightsWatch28Octurgedgovttostopprosecutionofprotesters,addresslegitimateconcerns.Govtreportedly withdrewfromEgyptian-initiatedSyriancontactgroup.


    Shiite protests pose major challenge for Saudi Arabia, Washington Post, 19 Oct. 2012.

    SaudiArabia Anti-regimeprotestsinQatif13Octcalledforrelease

    ofIslamist-dominatedConstituentAssembly(CA)toSupreme ConstitutionalCourt.Draftconstitutionreleased10Octcriticisedbyjudiciary,opposition,civilsocietyforshortcomingsin humanrights,separationofpowers.Clasheserupted12Octin TahrirSquarebetweenrulingMuslimBrotherhoodandoppositionsupportersdenouncingIslamistdominanceofCA.President MorsiattemptedtoremoveMubarak-eraProsecutor-General following11Octcourtacquittalof24Mubarakloyalistsaccused ofinvolvementindeadlyBattleoftheCamelsattackonantiregimeprotestersduring2011uprising.Prosecutor-General22 Octorderedinvestigationintoallegationsoffraudinpresidential electionfollowingofficialcomplaintbyAhmedShafiq,whonarrowlylostcontest;callcamedayafterauthoritiesfrozeShafiqs andfamilysassetsaspartofinvestigationintohiswealth.Libyan militantKarimAhmedEssamel-Azizi,suspectedofinvolvement inSeptattackonU.S.consulateinLibya,killedbysecurityforces24 OctinCairo.Morsi8Octissuedblanketpardonforcrimes,except murder,committedinsupportoftherevolution.
    Political clash over Egypts constitution, Al Jazeera, 20 Oct. 2012.

    Libya Govt-affiliatedbrigade17-18Octlaunchedfull-scaleattack

    againstformerpro-QadhafistrongholdBaniWalid,including shellingofcivilianareas;atleast20killed,hundredswounded, thousandsdisplaced;shellingearlierinmonthkilled3BaniWalid residents,triggeredtensionsbetweenMisratansandmembersof


    11

    WarfallatribeinSebhaandSirte.Towndeclaredliberated24 Octbutmilitiaspreventingciviliansreturn.Govtsecurityforces continuetocomeunderattackineast:4policekilled3OctatSouza checkpoint;Benghazipolicechiefsurvivedassassinationattempt 13Oct.Govtmid-monthsaidIslamistmilitantleaderAbuKhattala suspectedofroleinSeptattackonU.S.consulate.Politicalcrisisas GeneralNationalCongress7OctdismissedPMAbuShaghourfor failingtoformcabinet;appointedindependentCongressmember AliZeidannewPM14Oct;newcabinetapproved31Oct.Dozensof protestersstormedNationalAssembly30Oct,forcedcancellation ofvoteoncoalitiongovtproposedsamedaybyPMZeidan.Libya defendedrighttoholddomestictrialofSaifal-IslamQadhafiat ICCpublichearing9Oct.
    Libya marks 1st liberation anniversary amid tension, AFP, 23 Oct. 2012. For latest report, see Crisis Group Middle East/North Africa Report N130, Divided We Stand: Libyas Enduring Conflicts, 14 Sept. 2012.

    Mauritania PresidentAbdelazizflewtoFrancefortreatmentfol-

    lowingapparentfriendlyfireincident13Oct,sparkingspeculationoverhishealth;soldiersuspectedofbeingresponsible22Oct gaveinterviewtoexplainmistake.
    Mauritania soldier on shooting President Abdelaziz, BBC, 22 Oct. 2012.

    theRepublic(CPR)met13Oct,agreedonsemi-parliamentary systemofgovtwithelectedheadofstate,announcedJune2013 parliamentaryandpresidentialelections,afterAn-Nahdaabandoneddemandforconstitutionalcriminalisationofattackson religion.Arsonattack16OctonSufishrineblamedonSalafists; localleaderofsecularNidaTounespartykilled18Octduring clashbetweensecularists,pro-govtIslamistsinTatouine.ThousandsdemonstratedinTunis22Octagainstkilling,govtfailure tostemIslamistviolence.HardlineSalafis27Octclashedwith alcoholsellersinTunis.ArrestofSalafiIslamistaccusedofassaultingheadofManoubaspublicsecuritybrigadereportedlyledto retaliatoryattackonTunispolicestation30Oct,1Salafireported killed;ensuingclashesprompteddeploymentofsecurityforces, extensionofnationalStateofEmergencytoJan2013.Election anniversary23Octalsosawdemonstrationsagainstrulingcoalition.TunisiannationalarrestedinTurkeyforlinkstoSeptattack onU.S.consulateinLibyarepatriatedtoTunisia11Oct,charged withterrorism.Court24OctsentencedIslamistAnsaral-Sharia memberAbuAyabto1yearinjailforincitingSeptattackonU.S. embassyinTunis;groupsleaderAbuIyadh23Octaccusedgovtof beingun-Islamic,U.S.puppet.Mediaworkers17Octbeganstrike overgovtinterference;govtsamedayissued2decreesaimedat protectingpressfreedoms.
    Tunisian politicians struggle to deliver, Al Jazeera, 23 Oct. 2012.

    Tunisia RulingTroikaofAn-Nahda,Ettakatol,Congressfor

    Morocco Aroundathousandjudges8Octdemonstratedbefore SupremeCourtagainstcorruption,calledforhighersalariesand greaterjudicialindependence.Police4-5Octviolentlydispersed hundredsofunemployeduniversitygraduatesand300striking minersoccupyingworksiteinOuarzazate.AfterSeptvisitUN rapporteurJuanMendez24Octsaidtortureandexcessiveuseof forceagainstprotestersongoing,particularlyinWesternSahara, urgedgovtactiontocurbabuses.Court15OctsentencedFebruary 20activistBashirBenchaibto12yearsinjail.
    Morocco jails activist for 12 years, News24, 17 Oct. 2012.

    Crisis Group Offices


    Brussels Washington New York brussels@crisisgroup.org +32 2 502 9038 washington@crisisgroup.org +1 202 785 1601 newyork@crisisgroup.org +1 212 813 0820 Crisis Groups international headquarters is in Brussels, and the organisation has offices or representation in 34 locations: Abuja, Bangkok, Beijing, Beirut, Bishkek, Bogot, Bujumbura, Cairo, Dakar, Damascus, Dubai, Gaza, Guatemala City, Islamabad, Istanbul, Jakarta, Jerusalem, Johannesburg, Kabul, Kathmandu, London, Moscow, Nairobi, New York, Port-au-Prince, Pristina, Rabat, Sanaa, Sarajevo, Seoul, Tbilisi, Tripoli, Tunis and Washington DC. Crisis Group is also currently covering some 70 areas of actual or potential conflict (through analysts operating from regional or field bases, or consultants). In Africa, this includes, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte dIvoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda and Zimbabwe; in Asia, Afghanistan, Burma/Myanmar, Indonesia, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Malaysia, Nepal, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; in Europe, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cyprus, Georgia, Kosovo, Macedonia, North Caucasus, Serbia and Turkey; in the Middle East and North Africa, Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel-Palestine, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, Western Sahara and Yemen; and in Latin America and the Caribbean, Colombia, Guatemala, Haiti and Venezuela.

    Peacebuilding is amongst the most vital and complex endeavors of our times. Objective and candid analysis such as the International Crisis Groups are key to its perfection. Alejandro Eder, Director of the Colombian Agency for Reintegration, January 2012

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