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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| November 5, 2012

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

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Commodities Daily Report


Monday| November 5, 2012

International Commodities
Overview
US Non-Farm Employment Change increased to 171,000 in October. Chinas Non-Manufacturing PMI increased to 55.5-level in last month. US Unemployment Rate increased to 7.9 percent in October Spanish Manufacturing PMI declined to 43.5-mark in last month. US Factory Orders increased by 4.8 percent in September. European Final Manufacturing PMI increased to 45.4-mark in October

Market Highlights (% change)


Last INR/$ (Spot) 53.8 Prev day -0.3

as on 2 November, 2012

w-o-w -0.5

m-o-m -3.0

y-o-y -8.7

Asian markets are trading on a mixed note due to rise in the risk aversion amongst the market participants ahead of US elections amidst advance of shares of some Asian companies along with positive data from the Chinese economy. US Non-Farm Employment Change increased by 23,000 to 171,000 in October as against a rise of 148,000 in September. Unemployment Rate increased to 7.9 percent in October from previous rise of 7.8 percent in September. Factory Orders increased 4.8 percent in September as compared to decline of 5.1 percent in August. Chinas Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.8 points to 55.5-level in October from previous rise of 53.7-mark in September. US dollar Index gained 0.6 percent week on week taking cues from negative global market sentiments and uncertainty over U.S. presidential elections. Further, unfavorable manufacturing data from the Euro zone also created bearish market sentiments. This led to rise in the risk aversion amongst market participants and increase in the demand for the low yielding currency that is US Dollar Index (DX). U.S. equities also ended higher week on week on the back of favorable data from the US economy. Uncertainty over the presidential elections however, capped sharp gains. The currency touched a high of 80.61 and closed at 80.56 on Friday. The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.5 percent in the last week. The currency depreciated taking cues from weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. Additionally, month end dollar demand for oil importers and its companies also added downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp fall in the currency was cushioned as a result of increasing FIIs inflows in the country. The currency touched a low of 54.21 during the week and closed at 53.80 on Friday. For the current month FII inflows totaled at Rs. 686.40 crores till 2nd November 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs. 94,381.40 crores till 2nd November 2012.

$/Euro (Spot)

1.2836

-0.8

-0.8

-0.5

-7.1

Dollar Index

80.56

0.5

0.6

0.6

4.8

NIFTY

5697.7

0.9

-0.1

-0.6

8.2

SENSEX

18755.5

1.0

0.0

-0.6

7.3

DJIA

13093.2

-1.1

-0.1

-3.0

8.7

S&P

1414.2

-0.9

0.2

-2.2

14.2

Source: Reuters

Euro declined 0.8 percent week on week on worries of Greece and Spain bailout and as Greece Prime Minister struggles to find political support for measures to achieve the same. Greece has to undergo further austerity measures to receive the bailout. Further, unfavorable data from the region along with strength in the DX also exerted a downside pressure on the currency. The currency touched a weekly low of 1.2819 and closed at 1.2836 on Friday. Spanish Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 1 point to 43.5-mark in October as against a rise of 44.5-level in September. Italian Manufacturing PMI declined by 0.2 points to 45.5-level in October from previous rise of 45.7mark in September. European Final Manufacturing PMI increased marginally to 45.4-mark in October as compared to rise of 45.3-level in September.

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Commodities Daily Report


Monday| November 5, 2012

Bullion Gold

International Commodities

Spot gold prices declined 1.9 percent week on week due rise in the risk aversion amongst market participants and as investors adopted a cautious approach ahead the US elections scheduled on November 06, 2012. Fiscal cliff issues in the U.S. along with strength in the DX also created bearish market sentiments. The yellow metal touched a weekly low of $1,671.95 per ounce and settled at $1,677.40 per ounce on Friday. In the domestic markets gold prices on MCX declined percent week on week tracking bearishness in the spot gold prices and settled at Rs. 30,498 per 10 gms after touching a weekly low of Rs. 30,366 per 10 gms on Friday. However, depreciation in the Indian rupee cushioned sharp fall in the MCX gold prices. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, remained steady at 1336.30 tonnes till November 02, 2012.

Market Highlights - Gold (% change)


Gold Gold (Spot) Gold (Spot -Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (Dec12) MCX Gold (Dec12) Unit $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz 1678.4 $/oz Rs /10 gms 30424.0 -1.7 -2.1 Last 1677.4 30700.0 1685.0 Prev day -2.1 -0.5 -1.8

as on 2 November, 2012 WoW -1.9 -0.1 -1.8 MoM -5.7 -1.9 -5.1 YoY -4.8 10.4 -4.2

-2.0

-5.6

-4.9

-1.6

-1.8

8.7

Source: Reuters

Silver
Spot silver prices also witnessed a selling pressure taking cues from bearishness in the spot silver prices and weakness in the base metals pack. Strength in the DX also exerted a downside pressure on the silver prices. The white metal touched a weekly low of $30.77 per ounce and closed at $30.85 per ounce on Friday. MCX silver prices traced the spot silver prices and declined 3 percent after touching a weekly low of Rs.57,400 pre kg and settled at Rs.57,651 per kg. However, depreciation in the Indian rupee cushioned sharp fall in the MCX silver prices. On a weekly basis, holdings in the iShares Silver Trust rose by 0.19 percent to 9943.01 tonnes till November 02, 2012 from previous week holdings of 9923.19 tonnes till October 26th 2012.

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)


Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot -Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Dec12) MCX Silver (Dec12) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg $/oz $/ oz Rs / kg 57651.0 -3.4 60180.0 3192.0 3095.0 -1.2 -2.3 -4.0 Last 30.9 Prev day -4.3

as on 2 November, 2012 WoW -3.8 -0.2 -0.5 -3.4 MoM -10.8 -2.6 -8.1 -10.6 YoY -10.5 6.6 -8.1 -10.3

-3.0

-7.5

1.6

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Outlook
In todays session we expect precious metals to trade on a bearish note due to weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. Investors are also following a cautious approach ahead of US elections. In the domestic market depreciation in the Indian rupee is expected to support an upside in the precious metals on MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Dec12 Spot Silver MCX Silver Dec12 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for November 5, 2012 Support 1676/1669 30420/30300 30.81/30.54 57200/56700 Resistance 1686/1690 30600/30680
Source: Telequote

31.18/31.34 57900/58200

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Commodities Daily Report


Monday| November 5, 2012

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices declined by 1.5 percent in the last week taking cues from weak demand from consuming nations and increase in the US unemployment rate along with strength in the DX. Additionally, rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments also added downside pressure on the prices. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned as a result of unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories. Crude oil prices touched a low of $84.66/bbl during the week and closed at 84.90/bbl in the last trading session of the week. On the domestic bourses, prices declined by 0.3 percent on the back of appreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.4,623/bbl on Friday after touching a low of Rs./bbl in the last week. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Dec12) ICE Brent Crude (Dec12) MCX Crude (Nov12) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 84.9 107.6 84.8 $/bbl 105.7 $/bbl 4623.0 Rs/bbl
Source: Reuters

as on 2 November, 2012 WoW -0.8 -0.7 -1.5 MoM -3.7 -1.9 -3.8 YoY -9.7 -3.3 -9.9

Prev. day -2.5 -1.9 -2.6

-2.3

-2.6

-2.3

-4.6

-1.6

-0.3

-0.5

0.3

Market Highlights - Natural Gas


Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (Nov 12) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 3.547 192.8

(% change)

as on 2 November, 2012

Prev. day -3.64 -2.97

WoW 4.51 5.99

MoM 1.20 -1.58

YoY -5.66 3.05

Natural Gas
On a weekly basis, Nymex natural gas prices gained by 4.5 percent on the back of less than expected rise in US natural gas inventories. Additionally, forecast for the cooler winter weather also supported an upside in the prices. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped as a result of strength in the DX and weak global market sentiments. Gas prices touched a weekly low of $3.532/mmbtu and closed at 3.547/mmbtu in the last trading session of the week. On the domestic front, prices gained by 6 percent and closed at Rs.192.80/mmbtu on Friday after touching a low of Rs.192.10/mmbtu during the last week. Outlook In the intra-day, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a negative bias on the back of weak demand and bearish global market sentiments. Strength in the DX is likely to exert downside pressure on the crude oil prices. In the domestic markets depreciation in the Indian rupee is expected to cushion sharp fall in the MCX crude oil prices. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude Nov 12 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for November 5, 2012

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Nymex Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart Nymex Natural Gas

Support 84.10/83.10 4560/4510

Resistance 85.70/86.90 4650/4710

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Commodities Daily Report


Monday| November 5, 2012

International Commodities
Base Metals
Base metal prices traded on a bearish note owing to worries that demand might remain weak in the short term despite favourable data from the U.S. and Chinese economy. Further, rise in the LME inventories also added to the losses. Strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the base metals prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee cushioned sharp fall in the prices. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Nov12) LME Aluminum (3 month) $/tonne 1925.8 -1.0 -0.6 -8.2 -10.5 Rs/kg 416.0 -1.7 -1.8 -5.2 6.8 $/tonne Last 7671.8 as on 2 November, 2012 WoW -2.0 MoM -7.5 YoY -2.9

Prev. day -2.1

Copper
Copper, the leader of the base metals pack declined 1.93 percent week on week on the back of worries of slow demand from the major consuming nations amidst rise in the LME inventories. Additionally, strength in the DX also acted as a bearish factor for the copper prices. Copper prices on LME touched a weekly low of $7,656 per tonne and closed at $7,671.8 per tonne on Friday. Rise in LME Copper inventories by 1 percent also acted as a bearish factor for the downside in the Copper prices in the last week. LME Copper stocks stood at 2,42,975 tonnes. The red metal closed at $7,671.8 tonne on Friday.

MCX Aluminum (Nov12) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (Nov12) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (Nov12) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc

Rs /kg

103.9

-0.5

0.9

-4.9

-1.6

$/tonne

15964.0

-2.4

-1.4

-13.9

-13.4

Rs /kg

866.8

-1.8

-0.2

-10.9

-5.3

$/tonne

2094.0

-1.5

4.1

-8.9

2.8

Rs /kg

113.3

-1.3

4.5

-5.3

13.0

$/tonne

1868.5

-1.0

1.4

-9.9

-4.4

Rs /kg

100.1

-0.9

2.9

-7.4

3.9

On the domestic front, prices fell 1.8 percent and closed at (Nov12) Rs.416/kg after touching a weekly low of Rs.415.65/kg. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned due to depreciation in LME Inventories Unit the Indian rupee.
Copper tonnes tonnes

Source: Reuters
nd st

2 November
242,975 253,175

1 November
239,600 239,600 239,600 239,600 239,600

Actual Change
3,375 13,575 -1,825 150 -102

(%) Change
1.4 5.7 -0.8 0.1 0.0 Source: Reuters

Outlook

From the intraday perspective, base metal prices are expected to 237,775 Nickel tonnes trade on a bearish note due to weak global market sentiments along 239,750 Zinc tonnes with strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in the prices 239,498 Lead tonnes might be cushioned on the back of favourable data from the Chinese economy. Depreciation in the Rupee will act as a supportive factor Technical Chart MCX Copper for the base metal prices on MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper Nov12 MCX Zinc Nov12 MCX Lead Nov12 MCX Aluminum Nov12 MCX Nickel Nov12 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for November 5, 2012 Support 414/412 99.6/98.8 112.8/111.9 103.7/103 862/857 Resistance 418/421 100.9/101.5 114.2/115 104.9/105.5 874/882

Aluminum

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report


Monday| November 5, 2012

International Commodities
Important Events for Today

Indicator Spanish Unemployment Change Sentix Investor Confidence Services PMI ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI G20 Meetings

Country Euro Euro UK US All

Time (IST) 1:30pm 3:00pm 3:00pm 8:30pm Day 2

Actual -

Forecast 90.3K -20.7 52.0 54.6 -

Previous 79.6K -22.2 52.2 55.1 -

Impact Medium Medium High High Medium

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