Correlation Between Electoral College and the Popular Vote: 2012 Election

No. Topic Page No. Brief Post-election comments 2 1. Election Results, Updated after Florida count (Nov 11, 2012) 3 2. Electoral College (EC) versus Popular votes 11 3. Repeating Obamas re-election scenario 18 4. Simplest Election Reform 19 5. What if scenarios 23 6. http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/President/2012/ (Nov 8, 2012)

President Obama was re-elected winning both the Electoral College (EC) votes, 270 needed to win, and the popular vote.

Only about 120 million votes cast, out of 240 million (est.) population over 18 years of age.
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Dear All:

The pundits have already started hashing various what happened scenarios after the recent Presidential election. Heres just one which is consistent with the remarks about GOP extremism I had made earlier (click here or go to the link http://www.scribd.com/doc/111827829/Are-Candidates-Being-SuperstitiousAbout-Ohio-and-Pennsylvania) before the election, urging all to vote wisely on November 6, 2012.

Why Mitt Lost

He couldnt separate himself from the Republican Partys growing extremism.

By Jacob Weisberg| Posted Wednesday, Nov. 7, 2012, at 3:24 AM ET

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/the_big_idea/2012/11/why_ro mney_lost_he_couldn_t_separate_himself_from_the_republican_party_s.html My main purpose here, however, is to describe a simple correlation between the Electoral College (EC) votes and the popular votes, based on the analysis of the winning vote margins in the most populous states and the swing states (20 out of 50 states). Here it is. To begin with, I have summarized the raw election results (after the formal Florida vote count, announced Saturday November 10, 2012, awarding the states 29 electoral votes to President Obama) and also sorted them by the states won by both Obama and Romney. There are still a lot of misconceptions regarding the Electoral College (EC) votes, although this system has been in use ever since George Washington was elected President. By the way (or BTW in modern parlance), Washington was the only President to secure 100% of the EC votes. As we see here, there is a strong correlation between the popular votes received by the winner and the EC votes awarded. If we use California as the basis for
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comparison, since it has the largest number of EC votes awarded in the nation, we see that most of the states award fewer EC votes than CA does. The only states that award (very slightly) higher EC votes are the small states. This, of course, was the precise purpose of the Electoral College. We see a similar pattern if we consider the winning vote margin (i.e., excess votes received by the winner in each state) instead of the total popular votes received by the winner. The winning vote margin tells us something about what we tend to call the mandate received by the winner. (More on this later.) Again there is a strong correlation between the winning vote margin and the EC votes. Now, instead of considering only California (CA), I have considered a mix of small and big states and swing states - New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Illinois, and New York to establish the reference line. Some states award more EC votes (especially the larger states) than the reference line suggests while others award fewer EC votes (especially the small and midsize states). However, when we consider the overall situation, as in the 2012 election which was a relatively close one, both candidates benefit from this excess of EC votes awarded. The most meaningful election reform, which will force the EC votes awarded by all states to follow the reference line, would be a splitting of the EC votes by congressional districts, as is now done by Maine and Nebraska. In the 2008 election, Obama got one EC vote from Nebraskas congressional district number 2, although McCain was the overall winner. Such a splitting of the EC votes, by congressional districts, would certainly produce a more equitable sharing of the EC votes to reflect the popular vote and could be easily accomplished without the need for any constitutional amendments even for the 2016 election. Finally, it is time to put aside the bickering about mandates and work for the greater good of the nation. Using a sports analogy, golf as an example, the winner of a tournament, or a major, is many a time decided by just one single stroke. Just one point in a game makes all the difference in tennis and the entire set is awarded to that player. Just a one game margin in the World Series is enough to decide the winner. We do not keep track of the scores in the remaining six and harp about all the matches won by the loser and the bigger margins in those earlier games. It is time we learn to look at politics in the same way and let the President govern, and support him, instead of being petty and talking about whether President Obama
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indeed has the mandate to govern. Yes, unlike the difference in the EC votes, the difference in the popular vote is not huge. But the same goes for a blow out in tennis where the winner could win the whole match by 6-0, 6-0, 6-0 (womens single), or by 6-0,6-0,6-1,6-0,6-1 (mens single) , all because of one single point in each game. Nobody counts the points, only the sets won. And so it is with the EC votes. It was a way to help us deal with difference between large and small states, and the millions of votes cast, and ensure that the big states do not dominate the election. So, let us not begrudge President Obama his hard earned victory. It is time for GOP leaders to STOP making combative pronouncements and instead listen to the President and co-operate with him so that the urgent matters such as the so-called fiscal cliff and other matters relating to the budget and deficit can be resolved in an amicable manner. Millions of Americans are now hurting and have given up hope. It is time for both parties, and more especially the GOP, to show some maturity and work for the greater good of the nation. Of all, I expect the losing VP candidate, Mr. Paul Ryan, to hold his peace and conduct himself with some dignity in the upcoming negotiations with the President. Messers Boehner, McConnell, Cantor, and other in the GOP side can learn too. If Mr. Romney wants to work with the President, should he be offered a position in the cabinet, it would be the greatest sign of his patriotism. May be then he can show that he does care about the 47% too! The country needs it. Nay, the country should DEMAND it. Very sincerely

V. Laxmanan November 11, 2012

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http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/results

Election Results as of November 11, 2012

The following table was prepared on November 11, 2012 has the latest election results (obtained from Huffington Post, link above).
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Election Results Sorted by States Won by Obama Results as of November 11, 2012 (After Florida count)
State EC Votes 55 29 29 20 20 18 16 14 13 12 11 10 10 10 9 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 332 EC Votes (Dem) 55 29 29 20 20 18 16 14 13 12 11 10 10 10 9 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 332 EC Votes (Rep) Popular Vote (Dem, Obama) 5,871,106 3,875,826 4,236,032 2,916,811 2,907,448 2,697,260 2,561,911 1,960,744 1,905,528 1,563,585 1,900,575 1,527,686 1,547,668 1,613,950 1,238,490 912,531 915,703 816,429 528,801 408,312 303,090 274,342 397,754 368,529 222,322 199,259 242,547 43,914,239 Popular Vote (Rep, Romney) 3,822,520 2,226,637 4,162,174 2,090,116 2,619,583 2,593,779 2,112,673 1,383,233 1,789,618 1,170,858 1,177,370 904,970 1,321,575 1,408,746 1,125,391 631,432 718,254 727,928 462,422 331,915 119,494 155,355 290,437 327,870 17,337 92,700 165,476 33,949,863 Diff. in Pop. Vote (for Dem) 2,048,586 1,649,189 73,858 826,695 287,865 103,481 449,238 577,511 115,910 392,727 723,205 622,716 226,093 205,204 113,099 281,099 197,449 88,501 66,379 76,397 183,596 118,987 107,317 40,659 204,985 106,559 77,071 9,964,376

CA NY FL IL PA OH MI NJ VA WA MA MD MN WI CO CT OR IO NV NM HI RI ME NH DC VT DE
Total

29 4,236,032 4,162,174 73,858 FL 29 20 2,907,448 2,619,583 287,865 PA 20 18 2,697,260 2,593,779 103,481 OH 18 13 1,905,528 1,789,618 115,910 VA 13 Total 80 581,114 If 581,114 votes in the four highlighted states (FL, PA, OH, VA) with 80 EC Votes had gone the other way, Romney would have been elected President. This happens in every election. Obama re-elected by the EC and Popular Votes; Pop. Votes obtained from the Huffington Post tally on 11/11/2012. Many state results agree with the earlier numbers
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Simplest Correlation between Popular and EC Votes

EC Votes received by Obama Only states won by Obama are considered here

80

y = mx
70 60 50 40

CA

Slope m =
30 20 10 0 0.00

EC votes for CA ___________________________ Winners Popular votes in CA

2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00

Popular votes received by Obama [in millions] Only states won by Obama are considered here

Figure A: The EC votes received by President Obama is plotted here against the actual popular votes tally (in millions) in the states won by Obama. As the number of popular votes received increases, the EC votes awarded by the state also increases. Using California (CA), which has the highest EC votes (55) in the nation, as the basis of comparison, most of the data falls below the straight line joining the origin (0,0) to the CA data point. The states that fall above the reference line are the small states with very few EC votes: Delaware (DE, 3 EC votes), Vermont (VT, 3), New Hampshire (NH, 4), Maine (ME, 4), Rhode Island (RI, 4), Hawaii (HI, 4), New Mexico (NM, 5) and Nevada (NV, 6) and the District of Columbia (D. C., 3). According to the Electoral College rules, the minimum EC votes is 3. Most of these states votes have this minimum. The others awarded a combined total of 14 additional EC votes relative to the CA reference line.
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Election Results Sorted by States Won by Romney Results as of November 11, 2012 (After Florida count)
State EC Votes 38 16 15 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 206 0 EC Votes (Dem) EC Votes (Rep) 38 16 15 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 206 Popular Vote (Dem, Obama) 3,294,440 1,761,761 2,178,388 841,607 1,140,425 953,043 1,215,031 845,756 793,620 808,496 679,340 442,647 528,260 389,699 427,918 229,463 289,154 234,925 212,560 91,696 124,490 200,489 144,988 68,780 17,896,976 Popular Vote (Rep, Romney) 4,555,799 2,070,221 2,275,853 1,038,907 1,412,620 1,453,097 1,478,961 1,049,507 1,252,453 1,152,460 1,087,127 889,372 674,302 638,437 678,719 671,747 462,972 412,406 420,750 121,234 187,586 264,974 210,541 170,265 24,630,310 Diff. in Pop. Vote (for Rep.) 1,261,359 308,460 97,465 197,300 272,195 500,054 263,930 203,751 458,833 343,964 407,787 446,725 146,042 248,738 250,801 442,284 173,818 177,481 208,190 29,538 63,096 64,485 65,553 101,485 6,733,334

TX GA NC AZ IN TN MO SC AL LA KY OK MS AR KS UT NE WV ID AK ND MT SD WY
Total

TX 38 38 3,294,440 4,555,799 1,261,359 GA 16 16 1,761,761 2,070,221 308,460 NC 15 15 2,178,388 2,275,853 97,465 AZ 11 11 841,607 1,038,907 197,300 IN 11 11 1,140,425 1,412,620 272,195 TN 11 11 953,043 1,453,097 500,054 MO 10 10 1,215,031 1,478,961 263,930 Total 112 11,384,695 14,285,458 2,900,763 The seven largest RED states have 112 EC Votes, with NC, AZ, IN, TN, MO = 43 EC Votes

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EC Votes received by Romney Only states won by Romney are considered here

60

50

40

30

20

10

0 0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Popular votes received by Romney [in millions] Only states won by Romney are considered here
Figure B: The EC votes received by Governor Romney is plotted here against the actual popular votes tally (in millions) in the states won. Again, as the number of popular votes received increases, the EC votes awarded by the state also increases. Using California (CA), as the reference for comparison, most of the data again falls below the CA reference line. (Note that the slope of this line will depend on the popular votes received by the winner, in this case Obama, and will therefore change with each election.) Some of the data points again fall above the CA reference line. Of these Alaska (AK, 3), North Dakota (ND, 3), South Dakota (SD, 3), Montana (MT, 3) and Wyoming (WY, 3) have the minimum of 3 EC votes. The others Nebraska (NE, 5), West Virginia (WV, 5) and Idaho (ID, 4) awarded a combined 12 additional EC votes relative to the CA reference line established in the 2012 Presidential election. (Recall that Obama received 14 additional EC votes from the smaller states he won. This will surely make a difference in a real close election in the future - which might lead to a tie in the EC votes.) In the following we will consider the effect of the winning vote margins.

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Full Election Results on November 11, 2012 Florida Votes declared on Saturday November 10, 2012
State
AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT D.C. DE FL GA HI ID IL IN IO KS KY LA ME ME1 ME2 MD MA MI MN MS MO MT NE NE1 NE2 NE3 NV NH NJ NM NY NC ND

EC Votes 9 3 11 6 55 9 7 3 3 29 16 4 4 20 11 6 6 8 8 2 1 1 10 11 16 10 6 10 3 2 1 1 1 6 4 14 5 29 15 3

EC Votes (Dem)

EC Votes (Rep) 9 3 11 6

55 9 7 3 3 29 16 4 4 20 11 6 6 8 8 2 1 1 10 11 16 10 6 10 3 2 1 1 1 6 4 14 5 29 15 3

Popular Vote (Dem) 793,620 91,696 841,607 389,699 5,871,106 1,238,490 912,531 222,322 242,547 4,236,032 1,761,761 303,090 212,560 2,916,811 1,140,425 816,429 427,918 679,340 808,496 397,754

Popular Vote (Rep) 1,252,453 121,234 1,038,907 638,437 3,822,520 1,125,391 631,432 17,337 165,476 4,162,174 2,070,221 119,494 420,750 2,090,116 1,412,620 727,928 678,719 1,087,127 1,152,460 290,437

Diff. in Pop. Vote (for Dem) -458,833 -29,538 -197,300 -248,738 2,048,586 113,099 281,099 204,985 77,071 73,858 -308,460 183,596 -208,190 826,695 -272,195 88,501 -250,801 -407,787 -343,964 107,317

1,527,686 1,900,575 2,561,911 1,547,668 528,260 1,215,031 200,489 289,154

904,970 1,177,370 2,112,673 1,321,575 674,302 1,478,961 264,974 462,972

622,716 723,205 449,238 226,093 -146,042 -263,930 -64,485 -173,818

528,801 368,529 1,960,744 408,312 3,875,826 2,178,388 124,490

462,422 327,870 1,383,233 331,915 2,226,637 2,275,853 187,586

66,379 40,659 577,511 76,397 1,649,189 -97,465 -63,096

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OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VT VA WA WV WI WY

18 7 7 20 4 9 3 11 38 6 3 13 12 5 10 3

18 7 7 20 4 9 3 11 38 6 3 13 12 5 10 3

2,697,260 442,647 915,703 2,907,448 274,342 845,756 144,988 953,043 3,294,440 229,463 199,259 1,905,528 1,563,585 234,925 1,613,950 68,780

2,593,779 889,372 718,254 2,619,583 155,355 1,049,507 210,541 1,453,097 4,555,799 671,747 92,700 1,789,618 1,170,858 412,406 1,408,746 170,265

103,481 -446,725 197,449 287,865 118,987 -203,751 -65,553 -500,054 -1,261,359 -442,284 106,559 115,910 392,727 -177,481 205,204 -101,485

Total 538 332 206 61,811,215 58,580,173 3,231,042 Obama re-elected by the EC and Popular Votes; Pop. Votes obtained from the Huffington Post tally on 11/11/2012. Many state results agree with the earlier numbers.

Get the Vote Out

The US Census estimate for population over 18 years of age is about 240 million for 2012. Yes, 240 million. 2010 (est). 2015 (est). 235 million 247.4 million

Of these only 120.4 million have voted in 2012 ! http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/population.html

Table 12: Resident Population Projections Race, Hispanic Origin Status, Age

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Election Results (Projected EC Votes) on November 6, 2012 Winner declared WITHOUT vote counts in AK and HI
State
AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE DC FL GA HI ID IL IN IO KS KY LA ME ME1 ME2 MD MA MI MN MS MO MT NE NE1 NE2 NE3 NV NH NJ NM NY

EC Votes 9 3 11 6 55 9 7 3 3 29 16 4 4 20 11 6 6 8 8 2 1 1 10 11 16 10 6 10 3 2 1 1 1 6 4 14 5 29

EC Votes (Dem)

EC Votes (Rep) 9 3 11 6

Popular Vote (Dem) 753,611 638,536 355,476 2,092,953 1,008,293 648,987 252,547 4,049,171 1,717,669 55,822 2,830,342 1,125,275 739,946 380,007 679,105 751,659 264,467

Popular Vote (Rep) 1,204,738 825,228 582,902 1,684,881 952,522 480,001 165,476 3,987,660 2,010,928 117,775 2,019,562 1,392,497 664,978 572,992 1,086,970 1,135,533 183,349

Diff. in Pop. Vote (for Dem) -451,127 -186,692 -227,426 408,072 55,771 168,986 87,071 61,511 -293,259 -61,953 810,780 -267,222 74,968 -192,985 -407,865 -383,874 81,118

55 9 7 3 3 29 16 4 4 20 11 6 6 8 8 2 1 1 10 11 16 10 6 10 3 2 1 1 1 6 4 14 5 29

1,464,345 1,745,432 1,686,081 980,446 471,683 1,163,343 44,021 266,657

889,022 1,071,424 1,401,399 911,535 610,272 1,446,788 54,843 432,720

575,323 674,008 284,682 68,911 -138,589 -283,445 -10,822 -166,063

427,370 311,131 1,854,308 342,916 3,036,362

368,286 280,197 1,284,856 277,031 1,882,348

59,084 30,934 569,452 65,885 1,154,014

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NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VT VA WA WV WI WY

15 3 18 7 7 20 4 9 3 11 38 6 3 13 12 5 10 3

15 3 18 7 7 20 4 9 3 11 38 6 3 13 12 5 10 3

2,175,557 119,558 2,631,001 417,397 608,636 2,857,694 262,464 664,467 130,499 942,730 3,049,495 148,953 177,027 1,768,382 1,034,453 225,774 1,218,265 63,151

2,271,415 177,448 2,542,132 842,746 486,309 2,570,559 146,295 888,544 194,611 1,435,912 4,335,814 417,377 81,728 1,706,788 802,526 396,943 1,102,292 154,492

-95,858 -57,890 88,869 -425,349 122,327 287,135 116,169 -224,077 -64,112 -493,182 -1,286,319 -268,424 95,299 61,594 231,927 -171,169 115,973 -91,341

332 206 100,820 Total 538 50,633,464 50,532,644 Obama re-elected by the EC and Popular Votes; Pop. Votes from FOX News 11/6/2012 See also results at http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/President/2012/

CNN Projected Obama Re-elected at 11:25 PM, I projected Obama winning at 11:00 PM based on his holding on to the lead in OH, FL, and CO.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/06/obama-defeats-romney-to-winsecond-term-fox-news-projects/

Obama Projected as Winner, Romney Campaign Not Yet Ready to Concede (11:51 PM) Obama defeats Romney to win second term, Fox News projects

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Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/06/obama-defeats-romney-to-win-secondterm-fox-news-projects/#ixzz2BVbfXvL6

The following from http://news.msn.com/politics/election-day-2012-obama-romney

Barack Obama won:Virginia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Oregon, Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, California, Hawaii, Washington, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania (Romney had made a last-ditch effort to secure a win in Pennsylvania in the final days of the campaign), New Jersey, New York, Michigan, Vermont, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Illinois. Mitt Romney won: Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska (four of the five electoral votes), North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming

http://cdn-media.nationaljournal.com/?controllerName=image&action=get&id=23703&format=mGallery

Supporters celebrate President Barack Obamas re-election outside the White House in Washington D. C. early on Wednesday November 7, 2012. PHOTO: Rick Bloom

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The EC Versus the Popular Vote

The idea of electing the President by the EC vote, as opposed to the Popular vote, was conceived to prevent states with large populations from dominating the elections. The merits of this time worn and well-established system are quite obvious if we consider the following 2012 Presidential election results. The table lists the states with 10 or more EC votes, which also have the largest populations.

Key 2012 Presidential Election Results

State Electoral College (EC) Votes Popular Votes (Democrat) Popular Votes (Republican) Diff. in Pop. Vote (for Dem) Votes per EC (Dem) 35,389 33,194 1,621 56,908 41,335 14,393 5,563 19,279 24,574 6,498 40,227 Votes per EC (Rep)

California, CA Texas, TX Florida, FL New York, NY Illinois, IL Pennsylvania, PA Ohio, OH Georgia, GA Michigan, MI North Carolina, NC New Jersey, NJ Total Virginia, VA Indiana, IN Minnesota, MN Wisconsin, WI Colorado, CO Iowa, IO Nevada, NV Maine, ME New Hampshire, NH Total

The most populous states 55 5,581,991 3,635,571 1,946,420 38 3,294,440 4,555,799 -1,261,359 29 4,143,362 4,096,346 47,016 29 3,862,281 2,211,951 1,650,330 20 2,916,811 2,090,116 826,695 20 2,907,448 2,619,583 287,865 18 2,686,609 2,586,467 100,142 16 1,761,761 2,070,221 -308,460 16 2,490,290 2,097,107 393,183 15 2,178,388 2,275,853 -97,465 14 1,924,329 1,361,154 563,175 270 The Swing States of 2012 Presidential Election 13 1,885,188 1,772,304 112,884 11 1,136,196 1,409,124 -272,928 10 1,542,915 1,320,035 222,880 10 1,613,350 1,408,745 204,605 9 1,238,490 1,125,391 113,099 6 816,429 727,928 88,501 6 528,801 462,422 66,379 4 375,904 274,257 101,647 4 366,089 325,668 40,421 73

8,683 24,812 22,288 20,461 12,567 14,750 11,063 25,412 10,105

Courtesy: Vote totals as given on November 8, 2012 at 8:00 a.m. by http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/President/2012/

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Let us consider the two most populous states, California (CA) and Texas (TX). The Democrats took CA with 55 EC votes and the Republicans took TX with 38 EC votes. The difference in popular votes in CA was 1,946,420 or nearly 1.95 million. Since only the EC votes determine the Presidential winner, the additional popular votes obtained by President Obama in CA CANNOT be applied, for example, to counteract the deficit of the popular votes in the swing state of Indiana (IN) where the Democrat Obama lost by only 272, 928. Likewise, the excess popular votes obtained by the Republican candidate Romney in Texas (1,261,359, or nearly 1.3 million votes) cannot be applied towards the deficit in Florida, for example, which was only 47,016 (as of November 8, 2012, with 100% reporting according to http://www.politico.com/2012election/map/#/President/2012/). If such a resetting of popular votes is permitted there would be literal chaos. The win in Indiana would be completely overshadowed if only popular vote counts were used. In the 2012 election, President Obama has, fortunately, won both the EC and popular votes handily. Or, consider this. The eleven (11) most populous states listed in the upper portion of the table have a combined 270 EC votes, enough to determine the Presidential winner. Obama won eight (8) of these states, with only three (3) states, with a total of 69 EC votes going to Romney. Likewise, of the nine (9) swing states listed in the lower portion of the table (OH and PA were also considered swing states but appear in the upper portion of the table), only one state (Indiana, IN) was won by Romney. The swing states include a mix of both small and big states. However, if the President is elected entirely by the popular vote, there would be NO INCENTIVE of any kind for a future Presidential candidate to campaign in anything but just these 20 states or only 40% of the nation. That would seem like a very unfair way to pick the President. As it is, the 2012 Presidential winner was called by the networks around 11:30 PM on November 6, 2012, without any votes being counted in both Alaska and Hawaii.
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Also, the winner could be decided without the votes being fully counted in Florida. By 11 PM, with Obama holding the lead in Florida (which only briefly went to Romney during the counting process, the difference in favor of Romney at that time was about 2000 votes but it quickly changed to a 15,000 vote deficit for Romney), and also in OH and CO, it became obvious, at least to me, that President Obama would be re-elected, very comfortably, and I said so, in private emails to a few friends. The bottom line: LEAVE the EC alone. The reform needed is the splitting of the EC votes further by Congressional districts as is now being done in Maine and Nebraska. A BIG chunk of the 29 EC votes from Florida would have been allocated to Romney if FL were split into congressional districts. Of course, the same also applies elsewhere in states that are now predominantly RED states. Currently, the votes cast for the Democratic candidate are totally meaningless in these states. Just look at the EC map on page one. A huge chunk of the country is painted RED. However, the BLUE states, some of which are also highly populous, did decide the election this time around. That was not the case in 2000. Of course, everyone seems to conveniently forget that if Al Gore had won his home state of Tennessee (TN), he would have been declared President-elect on election night itself and the FL recount would have been entirely unnecessary and the ensuing recount chaos in Florida (FL) could have been avoided! Romney-Ryan lost in their home states of MA and WI while Obama-Biden won their home states of IL and DE. Winning in your home state does make a difference and lends legitimacy. May be that is where future Presidential candidates should start! May be Romney could focus on rebuilding the Republican Party (by providing a real alternate GOP vision and sharing his deepest convictions), or towards the privatizing of natural disaster relief efforts by eliminating the need for FEMA which (i.e., spending on national disasters) he felt strongly was adding to the national debt! Personally speaking, of all the things that were said during this campaign, I find that to be not just the most offensive but also the most stupid and downright callous of all. One can only take the free-enterprise and capitalism arguments so far. We are a nation of families and communities. If you dont believe me, just ask the victims of Hurricane Sandy who are still recovering.
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Interesting Correlation between the EC votes and Popular Vote Margin

Winning popular vote margin, per EC vote
60,000 56,908

50,000 41,335 40,000

30,000 20,461 20,000 10,105 10,000

0 NY IL WI NH

EC Votes 29

20

10

Figure 1: The winning popular vote margin (excess votes received over opponent) in New York (for Obama) was 1,650,330 votes. Dividing this by 29, the number of EC votes, gives the Winning Vote Margin per EC vote given in the last two columns of the above table. For NY it is 56,908 votes per EC vote. For NH, it was 10,105 votes per EC vote. And so on. Notice the rough doubling in the winning vote margin as the EC votes doubled between NH, WI and IL. Also, between NY, IL, and WI, the additional 10 EC votes required roughly an additional 20,000 votes. This translates to a roughly linear relationship between the winning popular vote margin and the EC votes, as seen below in Figure 2. In the final vote tally of November 11, the values are NY 56,869, WI 20,520 and NH 10,165.

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40

EC votes gained by winner

30

NY
20

IL WI
10

NH
0

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

Winning popular vote margin, per EC vote

Figure 2: A nice linear trend. As the winning popular vote margin increases, the number of EC votes gained by the winner also increases almost linearly - as we see here with the four states, NH, WI, IL, and NY with increasing EC votes. The slope of the line (joining NH and NY) is 5.34 EC votes per 10,000 popular votes. The slope does not change due to the small difference in the final vote tally. ******************************************************************

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40

TX

EC votes gained by winner

35 30 25

PA
20

IL
15 10 5 0

IN

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

Winning popular vote margin, per EC vote

Figure 3: Using the NH-WI-IL-NY line as the basis for comparison, in Indiana (IN), the winner gained 11 EC votes, or one extra EC vote compared to the winner in Wisconsin (WI). This is also consistent with the slight increase in the winners popular vote margin. The winners in Pennsylvania (PA) and Texas (TX), on the other hand received far too many EC votes relative to their popular vote margins. This is due to the winner-take-all system currently in place. (Alternatively, the winner in IL received only 20 EC votes, the same as the winner in PA, with 26,942 additional popular votes.)

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60

EC votes gained by winner

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Winning popular vote margin, per EC vote

Figure 4: Using the same NH-WI-IL-NY line as the basis for comparison, the number of EC votes gained by the winner is plotted here as a function of the popular vote winning margins for the most populous states and the swing states (total of 20 states) listed in the table above. Eight states fall on this trend line. For the same winning vote margin, the three states FL, TX, and CA are seen to yield disproportionately large number of EC votes. This is because of the winner-take-all method currently being used to award the EC votes. This picture will change drastically if a hybrid method is used and each state is divided into Congressional districts (as in Maine and Nebraska). Divide each state up into Congressional districts and let a maximum of 50% of the EC votes be awarded to the district winner. If the state has an odd number of EC votes, as with FL (29), award the extra EC vote (15 EC votes) to the winner of the state as a whole and the remaining by dividing the state up into (14 for FL) districts. For CA (55), award 28 EC votes to the overall winner and 27 by dividing the state up into 27 districts, and so on. If the state has even number of EC votes (e.g., Michigan with 16 or Texas with 38), the overall winner takes 8 (for Texas 19) and the state gets divided into 8 districts (or 19 districts for Texas). Or, have an extra district (as in NE) for the extra EC vote. Obviously, such a reform can be implemented without the need for any constitutional amendments.
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Repeating the Obama Re-election Scenario

If one considers the inevitable demographic trends, with future increases in the Hispanic/Latino population in the South, especially in the border states such as Florida, Texas, and Arizona, the future actually looks very bleak for the GOP and some serious soul-searching is required about the future direction of the Republican party. The GOP extremism in social policies (abortion, immigration, social spending cuts), tax policy and government spending (tax cuts for the rich, no cuts in military spending, gutting social spending, even spending for education, not to mention privatization of Social Security, Medicare, etc.) and the blatant racism of the Tea party wing will NOT take the GOP into the 21st century. The mere fact that President Obama could be re-elected, with the economy just puttering away, reflects not a victory for Obama but a failure on the part of the GOP to articulate an acceptable alternative vision of government. The Akins, the Murdochs, and yes, even the Ryans, have NO future in the GOP. Yes, the GOP needs another Reagan in order to win any future Presidential elections. Just take a look at the table of the most populous states (270 EC votes) and the swing states (73 EC votes). Of these, Obama captured 201 EC votes in the most populous states and 62 EC votes in the swing states for a total of 263 EC votes. All that a future Democrat needs to win the Presidency is another 7 EC votes. Oregon (OR) and/or Connecticut (CT), each having 7 EC votes, will readily make up the difference. Democrats simply have to focus on these states and they can continue to win Presidential elections forever. It is actually going to get easier for a Democrat to win in the future as the RED states like FL, TX, and AZ start turning BLUE as the demographics change. Fortunately, the Hispanic/Latino (and also the Asian) populations, as they settle and integrate into the American fabric, will start manifesting their latent
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conservative tendencies. Actually, these communities are far more socially and fiscally conservative than white Americans. Herein also lies the future leadership of the GOP. But the task of re-defining the GOP must begin today. This also means bilingual credentials for any future Presidential candidate. Amigos will be most welcome in the new and changing America! A Hispanic/Latino POTUS in 2048 or 2052? Yes, quite likely!

The simplest election reform that will ensure a more popular vote like outcome is for more states to split their EC votes (say up to 50%) by Congressional districts, just like Maine (ME) and Nebraska (NE) have done. In fact, it is so simple that it could be accomplished for the 2016 elections. Indeed, once Texas and Florida turn BLUE, due to inevitable demographic trends, the GOP will not be able to win any future Presidential elections. Now, lets take a final look at how the BLUE and RED states fare using the NH-WI-IL-NY line as the basis for comparison.

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70

BLUE States (Won by Obama, 2012)

EC votes gained by winner

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Winning popular vote margin per EC vote (for Democrat)

Figure 5: Unlike figures 3 and 4 where both the blue and red states were considered, here we now consider only the BLUE states (won by Obama in 2012). Using the same NH-WI-IL-NY line as the basis for comparison, the number of EC votes gained by the winner is plotted here as a function of the popular vote winning margins for all the BLUE states (total of 27 in the 2012 election). As we see here, many states award fewer EC votes than the trend line used for comparison purposes. Taking the District of Columbia (D. C.), which has only 3 EC votes, as an example, the total popular vote margin was 204,985 votes, or 68,328 votes per EC vote gained by the winner. In Massachusetts (MA), a solidly blue state and Romneys home state (where he also Governor) has 11 EC votes. The popular vote margin was 723,205 votes or 65,746 per EC vote awarded. If both D. C. and MA were to fall on the trend line, they would be awarded 35 and 34 EC votes, respectively or a total of 69 EC votes, as opposed to 14 EC votes in the current system a deficit of 55 EC votes. California, on the other hand, awards 55 EC votes for a total popular vote margin of 2,048,586 or 37,247 votes per EC vote. The numbers given here can be found in the final election results table (Nov 11).

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50

EC votes gained by winner

RED States (Won by Romney, 2012)

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Winning popular vote margin per EC vote (for Republican)

Figure 6: Unlike figures 3 and 4 where both the blue and red states were considered, here we now consider only the RED states (won by Romney in 2012). Using the same NH-WI-IL-NY line as the basis for comparison, the number of EC votes gained by the winner is plotted here as a function of the popular vote winning margins for all the RED states (total of 24 in the 2012 election). As we see here, many RED states also award fewer EC votes than the trend line used for comparison purposes. Taking Utah (UT) as an example, with 6 EC votes, the total popular vote margin was 442,284 votes, or 73,714 votes per EC vote gained by the winner. It should have awarded 38 EC votes to fall on the trend line. In Oklahoma (OK), with 7 EC votes, the popular vote margin was 446,725 votes or 63,818 per EC vote awarded. It should have awarded 33 EC votes to fall on the trend line. Texas (TX) and North Carolina (NC), on the other hand award too many EC votes to the winner for the popular vote margin (tallied Nov 11, 2012).

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EC votes gained by winner

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Winning popular vote margin per EC vote

Figure 7: Composite plot of the data from Figures 5 and 6 superimposing the states won by both President Obama and Governor Romney. The blue diamonds are the Democratic states and the red squares are the Republican states. Both candidates have been affected by the winner-take-all systems of awarding the EC votes, as we see here. Data points fall both above (more EC votes awarded) and below (fewer EC votes awarded) the basis for comparison provided by the four states New Hampshire (NH), Wisconsin (WI), Illinois (IL), and New York (NY).

Hence, the simplest election reform would be the splitting of the EC votes by Congressional districts in each state, as noted earlier. In 2008, Obama won Nebraskas congressional district no. 2 although the GOP nominee, McCain, was the overall winner for the state. States with the highest EC votes would have a more equitable allocation of the EC votes if they are divided into congressional districts.
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What if scenarios
As with every Presidential election, with the winner-take-all EC vote system deciding the Presidential winner, one can always imagine scenarios where the loser might emerge as the winner. If OH (103,481), PA (287,865), VA (115,910), and FL (73,858), where the total winning vote margin taken together was 581,114 votes had gone the other way, Romney would have emerged as the winner. These four states have a combined total of 80 EC votes. Without OH, PA, and VA, Obama would still have captured 281 EC votes to win. The victory in Florida would then become very critical. Hence, the voting situation in Florida (long lines, restrictions placed by the GOP governor on early voting, delays in providing a final vote count, final tally for the EC vote was only given on the Saturday following the Tuesday election) needs to be addressed, in a bipartisan manner, to avoid more heartaches in future elections. Of interest also is the possibility of some blue states turning red. If one or more of Virginia (VA), Iowa (IO), Illinois (IL), Wisconsin (WI), and Nevada (NV) turn red, the outcome will be a GOP winner. These states cannot be taken for granted by future Democratic candidates. Likewise, future Democratic candidates must also focus on turning the deep red states of the South into blue states. Giving the poverty levels in West Virginia (WV), with one of the lower per capita incomes in the country (with high reliance on government programs as well), there is no reason why WV has now turned RED, It was also the home of Senator Robert Byrd one of the longest serving Democratic senators (1959 to 2010) in US history. Likewise, Arkansas, the home state of the still very popular former President Clinton, should be a deep blue state, as is Tennessee, the home state of former Vice President Al Gore. Such inroads by future Democrats into the RED territory would be healthy for the nation. Of course, one must wonder if CA, NY, MA, would ever turn RED. We have had Republican Governors and mayors from all these states but the EC votes, of late, have gone to the Democrats. With the changing demographics, the GOP needs to take a hard look at what it stands for and how it can hope to remain relevant in 2016 and beyond.
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