Carlyle A.

Thayer Presentation to the Australian Night November 8, 2012

Introduction
Secretary Clinton (2010) all fundamentals were in place to take relations to the next level of engagement

Legacy issues no longer centrepiece

2000 Economics take centre stage

2008 major turning point

Three Constraints
1. Profound differences over human rights and political freedom 2. Vietnamese conservatives and plot of peaceful evolution 3. Expectations regarding economic reform

Outline
1. Evolution of US-Vietnam Defence Cooperation, 2003-07 2. Convergence of National Interests 3. Cooperation in Multilateral Forums 4. Conclusion

1. Evolution of US-Vietnam Defence Cooperation, 2003-07

2000 William Cohen is first Secretary of Defense to visit Hanoi

2003 a pivotal year - cooperation and struggle Defence Minister General Pham Van Tra visits Washington
Initiation of strategic dialogue

2. Convergence of National Interests

International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) eased (2007)

Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung visits US (June 2008) 1st Political, Security and Defense Dialogue (October 2008)

Convergence of National Interests

Vietnams Maritime Strategy to 2015
Chinese pressures on foreign oil companies Chinese harassment of U.S. Navy ships USNS Impeccable incident

Obama Administrations response

Convergence of National Interests

Agreement on ship repairs
USNS Safeguard (Sept 2009) USNS Richard E. Byrd (Feb-Mar 2010) Opening of Cam Ranh Bay USNS Richard E. Byrd (Aug 2011, June 2012) USNS Walter S. Diehl (Oct 2011) USNA Rappahannock (Feb 2012)

Convergence of National Interests

Defence Minister General Phung Quang Thanh visits US (December 2009) 15th Anniversary of Diplomatic Relations 1st Defense Dialogue at deputy minister of defence level (August 2010) Statement of Intent on Military Medical Cooperation (August 2011)

USS John D. Stennis April 2009

USS Jacksonville (SSN 699), Pacific Command, Dec 2009

USS George H.W. Bush Aug 2010

USS George Washington Aug 2010

1st Joint Naval Engagement Activities (Aug 2010)

15th Anniversary of US-Vietnam Diplomatic Relations USS John S. McCain makes port call Da Nang

Convergence of National Interests

2nd Defence Dialogue (Sept 2011)

Memorandum of Understanding
Regular high-level dialogue Maritime security Search and rescue Exchanges on UN peacekeeping Humanitarian assistance/disaster relief

US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta Cam Ranh Bay, June 2012

Defence Ministers Meet June 2012

3. Cooperation in Multilateral Forums

2010 Vietnam assumes Chair of ASEAN ASEAN Regional Forum ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus (ADMM Plus)

East Asia Summit (2011)

ASEAN Defence Ministers Plus 8

China

Russia

USA

Australia

ASEAN

New Zealand

South Korea India

Japan

4. Conclusion
Convergence not Congruence over South China Sea issues US Engagement Policy potential strategic partner

Vietnams Three nos

Naval activities not naval exercises

Conclusion
Vietnam divided internally
Party ideologues and the plot of peaceful evolution Rethink since June 2012? Faction supports proactive integration

Wither the Strategic Partnership?

Carlyle A. Thayer Email: carlthayer@adfa.edu.au