Intro to Comparative Politics

| PSC1001W | 11/01/2012 | Assignment 3: Foreign Affairs Paper |

Mihir Khubchandani

Democracy in Post-War Iraq

After a decade of war, the US troops are withdrawing from what is now believed to be a fledgling democracy. Elections have been carried out in the country, and it appears that for the short term at least, some stability will hold. However, Iraqs rich oil reserves mean that in the long term, it is likely to reform to the status of a rentier state, and is likely to revert to an autocratic rule. Iraq's abundance of oil1, whilst an opportunity for export revenue, results in the 'resource curse' that is a barrier to democratization2 in the country in the long term. Democracy has two main aspects: electoral democracy, and civil liberties. Iraq has carried out elections recently in 2010, which were considered fair elections. Nine parties ran for this election, and the winning party obtained close to 25% of the vote. This spread of votes shows that the election is truly free and fair, and not restricted or favoring any one party as occurs in Russia. However, it can be argued that the high levels of violence and the influence of foreign powers impairs political participation and decision making, proving that Iraq is not an electoral democracy. Civil liberties, meanwhile, refers to economic, social and political freedoms. Such freedoms are protected by the constitution, but are restricted due to the fears of violence. As such, Iraq is truly a fledgling democracy, with the institution prepared but the laws that are set cannot be followed fully. Perhaps the only way out from this for Iraq is export revenue from its oil exports, which are said to double before 2020.

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Independent Variable Dependent Variable

Intro to Comparative Politics

| PSC1001W | 11/01/2012 | Assignment 3: Foreign Affairs Paper |

Mihir Khubchandani

Iraqs oil wells are an opportunity for the country to grow economically. With growing export revenues, the government will be able to fund institutions that will serve to help with democratization. This occurs in a few main ways in Iraq. First, economic growth leads to improved offering of education in the country, which in turn directly leads to democracy. At the same time, the oil offers opportunity for private enterprises, which will not only serve to increase tax revenue for the government, but the private enterprises will also push to have a say in politics and will thus encourage freedom of speech, leading to democracy. However, the oil reserves could be a curse to Iraq. As a result of the government revenue from oil, the direct taxes in Iraq are lower than the average taxes in the Middle East, and are almost half of the tax rates of OECD countries3. One reason for this could be because of the recent war, and the fact that tax systems are still being established. However, this low rate of taxes from citizens means that the government does not see citizens as a priority. As a result, the government will not allocate resources towards the public. This would negatively affect the civil liberties aspect of development. From a social perspective, factors such as education are likely to be underfinanced, and poorly offered. At the same time, the constitution, whilst already written, will not be enforced with the primary aim of being fair to the citizens, but rather will favor exports and the oil industry, which contributes revenue. In the same thread of taxation, the low levels of tax will serve to buy loyalty from voters4. As a result, the current government is likely to repeatedly win elections due to their low tax policies. This skews elections, and thus would hamper the electoral democracy that is still only starting to develop in Iraq. A possible counterargument to this is that it democracy does not
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Ref: Class Readings: Schwarz Ref: Class Readings: Schwarz

Intro to Comparative Politics

| PSC1001W | 11/01/2012 | Assignment 3: Foreign Affairs Paper |

Mihir Khubchandani

concern itself with which parties the citizens vote for. As such, if the ruling party is offering low taxes continuously, and is winning elections in a fair way, it is still considered democracy. Because the state does not need to levy any taxes on the citizens, the formation of a stronger, legitimate state that represents its citizens is impeded. This means that the state and the institutions will remain weak, and therefore the violent insurgents will remain a threat to the country. These groups will therefore continue to manipulate the political decisions of the country, so preventing democratic stability. Furthermore, with the presence of these parties, foreign intervention will constantly be required in Iraq. This would lead to a vicious cycle, as the foreign intervention further reduces the state legitimacy in the eyes of the public, as it appears as if the government cannot handle issues on its own. Again, this empowers the insurgents, and harms the process of democratization. The immediate counter to this problem is that Iraq should implement a high level of direct tax, to combat the above problems. However, there are two issues with this solution. Firstly, even if direct taxes are imposed on citizens, the government is not likely to be able to provide optimum level of civil liberties. This is partly due to scarce resources, which will still be allocated towards oil exports as the government is incentivized by the income it receives from this avenue. As such, civil liberties will continue to be inadequately provided. Second, citizens are likely to be unhappy with having to pay high levels of taxes. This is partly because tax payers will be aware of the economic growth generated by oil revenue and thus will believe that their tax contributions are negligible. If taxes are suddenly imposed upon the public, protests are likely to spark against the government, which would add to existing violence in the nation and further

Intro to Comparative Politics

| PSC1001W | 11/01/2012 | Assignment 3: Foreign Affairs Paper |

Mihir Khubchandani

hamper civil liberties. Imposing a tax will lead to issues such as tax evasion, which weaken the legitimacy of the government. A further problem that arises from Iraqs resources is the formation of elites. Here, this would refer to power that would fall into the hands of oil distributing firms and individuals. These elites are likely to try to control the allocation of oil in order to maintain their level of wealth. As seen in Russia, these empowered groups may form party substitutes, as they would like to have a say in the governance of the country. However, when such parties form, they work to offering candidates for elections greater campaign resources, and they also are able to powerfully endorse the candidates, as they have control over the oil resource. This will cause the existing parties to fail, thus weakening the democracy. A possible counterargument to this is that the availability of resources in abundance and the high levels of economic growth help to ensure political stability and prevent post-war issues such as coup, as it guarantees loyalty. As such, the risks of further political uprisings are low, as people are by-and-large happy. Furthermore, such support from the people for the government is vital for state-building, as it ensures the support from the public to new laws and institutes as they are set up. At the same time, the ruling party does not face the going concern that they have a limited term in which to implement their policies, as the loyalty from their voters gives the party a sense of security for upcoming elections. However, this must be reconsidered in two lights. Firstly, whilst the citizens are happy with the economic growth of the country, the suppressed civil liberties is likely to lead to an uprising akin to those seen in other Arab countries as part of the Arab Spring. These protests occurred not because people were unhappy economically, but largely because of the lack of
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Intro to Comparative Politics

| PSC1001W | 11/01/2012 | Assignment 3: Foreign Affairs Paper |

Mihir Khubchandani

human rights in the states. As such, perhaps not in the short term, but in the medium to long term, Iraq faces the same threat. Secondly, the most recent elections in Iraq that were conducted in 2010 show that the votes were quite evenly spread, with the top two parties capturing 24.72% and 24.22% of the vote. As such, with the election so close and the votes so spread, it cannot be said that there is any clearly defined loyalty to the current ruling party as yet. A further issue that arises from this dependence on foreign exports for government revenue also means that Iraq is highly susceptible to the current economic crisis 5. As a result of the recessions in Europe and the US, the demand for oil will reduce, and the revenue to Iraq will decline. This would lead to an economic slump in Iraq that would counteract the democratization caused by economic growth, and could worsen the unrest in the country. It appears thus that Iraq can never truly become a democracy as seen in Western countries. However, what is more likely to happen is that a partial democracy similar to that seen in Malaysia will form. Malaysia is also rich in natural resources, with an abundance of palm oil. The press is seen as not free, and whilst fair elections are carried out, there has only been a single party in power since the countrys independence leading the belief that the party is systematically advantaged. Opposition parties are impeded by the current ruling government, and debates are not heeded to a great extent in policy-making. Iraq is likely thus to reach this level of democracy, which is quantified on the Freedom House Index as partly free. This is still much higher than many Arab countries and this progress is likely to be largely due to the role foreign countries play in policy-making that helps the government set up institutions facilitating democratization.

Ref: Class Readings: Schwarz

Intro to Comparative Politics

| PSC1001W | 11/01/2012 | Assignment 3: Foreign Affairs Paper |

Mihir Khubchandani

The US goals in Iraq, of creating a Middle Eastern democracy similar to Israel are therefore highly unlikely to happen. However, the intervention was a great catalyst towards enabling the country and putting it on the right track towards democratization. This intervention should be continued therefore, to ensure that the institutions and laws set up are strong enough to facilitate reaching the partly free level of democracy. At the same time, the US must ensure that as the new policies are set for Iraq, social and political aspects are not neglected and are prioritized as equal with economic aims of the country. In the short term, Iraq should strengthen its economy and export oil, using its reserves as an opportunity to sustain growth. However, the long term aims must be to avoid the trap that the other Arab countries have fallen into, and ensure that civil liberties and human needs for the population are met. This must be done by the elected Iraqi parliament in order for them to gain respect in the eyes of the citizens, but must be overseen by the US. It appears to be highly likely that Iraq will never truly be a free country. While this is the aim that policy-makers in the country must keep in mind, the availability of oil and the outwardled economic strategies mean that large amounts of direct tax cannot be charged. A direct result of this a weaker democracy due to the governments inevitable negligence of civil liberties. The resource curse will thus plague Iraqs efforts to democratize, and at best democratization will plateau at the stage of a partial-democracy, akin to that seen in Asia Pacific. Whilst this is not meeting the highly idealistic goals set by the US, this is a great level of progress that Iraq can only reach with the aid of foreign countries overseeing local policy decisions.

Intro to Comparative Politics

| PSC1001W | 11/01/2012 | Assignment 3: Foreign Affairs Paper |

Mihir Khubchandani

Works Cited
1. "Doing Business in Iraq - World Bank Group." Doing Business in Iraq - World Bank Group. Worldbank, n.d. Web. 01 Nov. 2012. <http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/iraq/>. 2. Dunning, Thad. "Authoritarianism and Democracy in Rentier States." Dept of Political Science, University of California Berkeley (2010): 1-15. Print. 3. "Iraq." Freedom in the World: Iraq. Freedom House, n.d. Web. 01 Nov. 2012. <http://www.freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2012/iraq>. 4. Looney, Robert. "Can Iraq Overcome the Oil Curse?" World Economics 7.1 (2006): 2144. Print.