Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

Market Outlook
November 15, 2012
Dealers Diary
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
The Indian market is expected to open in the red today, tracing negative opening
trades in the SGX Nifty and most other Asian indices on the back of resistance to
austerity measures in Europe, as well as uninspired economic data from the United
States.
BSE Sensex
(0.3)
(51.5) 18,619
Nifty
(0.3)
(16.8)
5,667
MID CAP
0.7
47.0
6,729
SMALL CAP
1.2
88.1
7,172
The US markets, after failing to maintain an initial upward move, moved

substantially lower over the course of trading on Wednesday following the release
of a disappointing report on US retail sales. Stocks accelerated to the downside
after the US President made remarks signaling that a familiar battle over higher
taxes may lead to continued gridlock on Capitol Hill. Meanwhile, in the recent
monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve, it decided to continue purchasing
$40 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities per month and determined that
economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low interest rates, at least
through mid-2015. The European markets fell after GDP fell 7.2% yoy in
3QCY2012 and anti-austerity protests broke out across Europe.
BSE HC
0.1
7.9
7,769
6.8
7,175
Dow Jones
(1.5) (185.2) 12,571
Meanwhile, the Indian markets started the first session of Samvat 2069 on a weak
note on Tuesday, mirroring weak global cues and also after the IIP data for Sep12
reported a decline of 0.4% yoy.
NASDAQ
(1.3)
(37.1)
2,847
FTSE
(1.1)
(64.2)
5,722
0.0
3.7
8,665
Markets Today
Hang Seng
The trend deciding level for the day is 18,643 / 5,675 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 18,694 18,783 / 5,690 5,713 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
18,643 / 5,675 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
18,553 18,502 / 5,652 5,637 levels.
Indices
SENSEX
NIFTY
S2
18,502
5,637
S1
18,553
5,652
PIVOT
18,643
5,675
R1
18,694
5,690
R2
18,783
5,713
News Analysis
Decline in IIP by 0.4% during September disappoints

WPI inflation moderates slightly while CPI inflation remains high
Trade deficit widens to record-high during October 2012
2G auction ends in two days, half of blocks unsold
JLR retail sales up 10% yoy in October 2012
2QFY2013 Result Review: JP Associate, Nestle, Bhushan Steel, Simplex Infra,
SKNL
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Net Inflows (November 09, 2012)

` cr
FII
MFs
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
1,807
1,830
(23)
2,873
96,926
207
399
(192)
(552)
(15,703)
FII Derivatives (November 08, 2012)

` cr
Index Futures
Stock Futures
Purch
238
57
Sales
177
39
Net
61
19
Open Interest
10,773
29,701
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
United Breweries
875
15.6
Manappuram Fin
33
6.1
HDIL
108
2.2
Indian Holtels
63
3.1
Mphasis
391
1.7
GMDC
216
2.9
Ultratech Cem
1,983
1.7
Indiabulls Finance
238
2.6
DLF
203
1.7
www.angelbroking.com
Company
JP Assoc
Price (`)
chg (%)
91
2.4
BSE PSU
0.1
BANKEX
(0.4)
(56.1) 13,255
AUTO
(0.3)
(30.4) 10,652
METAL
0.2
22.6 10,086
OIL & GAS
0.4
29.0
8,186
(0.7)
(39.0)
5,748
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE IT
Global Indices
Nikkei
Straits Times
1.2
253.3 21,442
(1.0)
(29.5)
2,978
0.3
7.1
2,055
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
INFY
(0.9)
(0.4)
$41.7
WIT
(0.2)
(0.0)
$8.2
IBN
(1.4)
(0.5)
$38.3
HDB
(1.9)
(0.7)
$37.5
Shanghai Com
Indian AD`
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
1,838
931
Declines
809
416
Unchanged
161
85
Advances
Volumes (` cr)
BSE
974
NSE
2,951
Market Outlook
November 15, 2012
Decline in IIP by 0.4% during September disappoints

As per the Quick Estimates on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), industrial
growth during September 2012 surprised negatively by reporting a de-growth of
0.4% yoy as compared to expectations of 2.8% yoy growth. The decline in
industrial activity is disappointing mainly because moderate growth during the
month was expected owing to healthy growth in the core sector during the month
and the positive surprise by growth in August 2012. At the same time, the IIP for
August 2012 has been revised downwards to 2.3% as compared to the earlier
estimate of a 2.7% growth.
On a cumulative basis, in the April - September 2012 period, the index has
reported a nearly stagnant growth of 0.1% after witnessing healthy growth of 5.1%
in the corresponding period of the previous year. On a 3MMA basis too, growth
remained at a low level of 0.5% during the month.
On a yoy basis, Mining witnessed an above 5.0% print after nearly 21 months,
reporting 5.5% growth as compared to 1.9% growth in the previous month and
de-growth of 7.5% in September 2011. However, this better-than-expected
performance can be attributed to an exceptionally low base effect. The
Manufacturing sector slipped into negative territory, contracting by 1.5% during the
month as compared to 2.3% growth in August 2012. Electricity sector reported a
modest growth of 3.9% during the month vis-a-vis growth of 9.0% in September
2011.
Under the Use-based classification, on a yoy basis, Basic goods reported
moderate growth of 3.5% during the month as compared to s compared to 3.4%
in the previous month. Intermediate goods reported growth of 1.8% during
September 2012 as compared to a contraction of 1.4% in the corresponding
period of the previous year. However, growth decelerated from the 2.7% level
witnessed during the previous month.
The index for Capital goods continued to remain volatile and under severe stress
witnessing de-growth of 12.2%, following a decline in growth by 4.4% in August
2012. It can be partially attributed to the high base in the previous year in spite of
a 6.5% contraction.
After a positive print of 3.3% growth in Consumer goods sector in August 2012,
growth witnessed a contraction of 0.3% in September 2012. This can be mainly
attributed to a decline of 1.8% in Consumer durables while Consumer nondurables reported a growth of 1.1%.
On a fiscal year-to-date basis, the index has reported dismal growth of 0.1% as
compared to growth of 5.1% during April - September 2011. Amongst other
components, capital goods have witnessed the steepest decline by 13.7% during
the period, reiterating concern over the deterioration in investment climate.
Since a turnaround in capex takes time and gets reflected with a lag, industrial
production is expected to remain subdued even in the second-half of the fiscal and
thus we believe that the industrial production print for FY2013 is likely to stabilize
at a low level.
Market Outlook
November 15, 2012
As far as a change in monetary policy stance is concerned, we continue to believe

that at least in the near term inflation remains a concern for the Reserve Bank to
ease rates. Post December 2012, we expect an easing of about 25 50 bps in the
policy rate.
WPI inflation moderates slightly while CPI inflation remains high

Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation for the month of October 2012 eased to
7.45% after inching up to 7.81% during September 2012. Inflation for August
2012 has been revised upwards to 8.01%. On a month-on-month (mom) basis,
headline WPI inflation grew at slower pace of a 0.2% in October as compared to
0.7% during September 2012.
Primary articles inflation moderated and stood at 8.2% during the month as
compared to 8.8% in the previous month driven by the moderation in price of food
articles. Inflation in food articles decelerated for the fourth straight month and
eased to 6.6% mainly driven the decline in vegetable prices by 7.4% on a high
base while food grains remained high at 15.5%. Fuel and power inflation stood at
11.7% as compared to 11.9% in the previous month. Inflation in Manufactured
products eased to 5.9% as compared to 6.3% in September 2012 however
manufactured food products remained high at 9.8%. We believe that softening
commodity prices have aided core inflation which decelerated to 5.6% as
compared to 5.8% in the previous month.
CPI inflation nearly touched double digits at 9.75% in October as compared to
9.73% in the previous month. Rural inflation surged to 9.98% as compared to
9.79% in September and above the 9.46% inflation in urban areas which
moderated slightly from 9.72% in the previous month. Food inflation stayed above
double digits at 11.43% followed by that in clothing, bedding and footwear at
10.47%. Fuel inflation stood at 7.58% during the month.
Trade deficit widens to record-high during October 2012

Indias trade deficit worsened further during October 2012 widening to USD 21
billion as compared to USD 18 billion in September 2012 and USD 17 billion in
September 2011. The trend of de-growth in exports continued for the sixth straight
month. However, exports in October 2012 contracted at a slower pace by 1.6% as
compared to 10.8% in the previous month. At the same time, imports during the
month expanded by 7.4% yoy in USD terms, the highest level in seven months,
thereby leading to a record level of trade deficit. On a cumulative basis, exports
for the April - October 2012 period registered de-growth of 6.2% in USD terms
while cumulative imports for the period declined by 2.7% yoy in USD terms.
Oil imports registered growth of 31.7% yoy in USD terms and this can be partially
attributed to an increase in crude oil prices on a year-on-year basis. On the other
hand, non-oil imports reported de-growth of 1.7% yoy in USD terms. Even on a
cumulative basis in the fiscal year to date, non-oil imports witnessed a contraction
of 8.2%.
Market Outlook
November 15, 2012
2G auction ends in two days, half of blocks unsold

The auction of 2G telecom spectrum ended on a disappointing note for the
government on Wednesday, just the second day of the process, with the Centre
earning only `9,407.64cr and more than half the blocks of airwaves on offer
remaining unsold. The revenue collection is far short of the budget estimate of
`40,000cr, a figure that was subsequently revised to `30,000cr. The auction was
also wrapped up in just two days, in stark contrast to the 3G spectrum auctions of
2010 which went on for more than a month and fetched `67,000cr. The tepid
response could upset the governments efforts to meet the revised fiscal deficit
target of 5.3% of GDP set for 2012-13. In all, 101 out of the 144 blocks of
spectrum on offer got bids. Metro cities of Delhi and Mumbai, which accounted for
40% of the base price of `14,000cr for 5 MHz of 2G spectrum drew no bids.
Only five operators Bharti Airtel, Vodafone, Telewings, Videocon, and Idea
Cellular - participated in the auctions. Videocon and Idea won spectrum in seven
circles while Telewings got spectrum in six circles. Bharti Airtel won in one circle
while Vodafone got 14 circles. The auction process dragged on due to some
excess demand in circles such as Uttar Pradesh (E) and (W) and Bihar, all C circle
circles where the reserve price was low. Of the total 22 circles, bids were received
in only 18 circles, with four key circles with high reserve price - Karnataka, Delhi,
Mumbai and Rajasthan - not drawing any bids. Barring Bihar, bidders got
spectrum in all circles at the reserve price. Telewings and Videocon not bidding for
pan India license indicates that pan India GSM telecom players will be limited to
incumbent players - Bharti Airtel, Vodafone, Idea and RCom. Low participation in
2G auctions was widely expected given high reserve prices of 2G spectrum as well
as other liabilities, like one-time spectrum fee and spectrum reframing, hanging
on telecom companies. We maintain our Neutral view on telecom sector.
JLR retail sales up 10% yoy in October 2012

Jaguar and Land Rover (JLR) reported healthy volume growth of 10% yoy in
October 2012 to 25,176 units. The sales for the October month were impacted
due to the hurricane (Sandy) in US and in anticipation of 2013 model year
products for Jaguar. The October retail sales for Land Rover registered a strong
growth of 17% yoy to 22,166 units; Jaguar sales however, posted a decline of
24% yoy to 3,010 units primarily due to the impact of the hurricane in the USA
and due to 2013 model year launches of XF and XJ across all major markets later
in the year. The company would be reporting a detailed update on JLR volumes for
October 2012 today. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with an SOTP
based target price of `319.
Result Review
Nestle (CMP:`4,765/TP:-/Upside:-)
Nestle to post a 7.8% yoy growth in topline to `2,116cr, which was below our
estimates. Domestic sales grew by 7.6% yoy mainly on account of better
realizations and superior product mix. Exports to third parties has grown by 29.7%,
while exports to affiliates declined by 4.7% yoy. INR depreciation impacted the
growth in sales favourably by 11.6%. Sales growth was affected due to portfolio
Market Outlook
November 15, 2012
optimization and pricing for value in certain products. Gross margins improved by
255bp yoy despite higher input costs due to better realization and superior product
mix. Employee costs increased by 65bp on a yoy basis. Other expenses too rose by
155bp on a yoy basis. Thus, OPM fell by 30bp yoy to 20.6%. Depreciation too
rose by 86.8% on a yoy basis due to capacity addition carried out by the company
Bottom-line rose by 2.3% yoy to `267cr. We maintain a neutral view on the stock.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
8,610
20.9 1,107114.8
71.2
41.7
25.2
26.2
5.3
FY2014E
10,174
21.2 1,348139.8
60.3
34.2
17.5
21.4
4.5
Bhushan Steel (CMP: `493/TP: - /Upside: -)

Bhushan Steel reported its 2QFY2013 results. Net sales remained flat yoy to
`2,446cr. However, EBITDA decreased by 11.2% yoy to `641cr on account of
increase in other expenses. Other expenses grew by 13.3% yoy to `372cr despite
flat yoy growth in net sales. Depreciation expense increased 36.5% yoy to `207cr
on account of increased capacity; however, interest expense (surprisingly)
decreased 6.7% yoy to `282cr despite increase in debt. Consequently, net profit
decreased by 2.6% yoy to `202cr. The companys gross debt has increased from
`19,817cr as on March 31, 2012 to `23,649cr as on September 30, 2012. We
maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
March
(` cr)
(%)
PAT EPS
(` cr)
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
11,979
31.6 1,045 49.2
14.1
10.0
1.3
9.0
2.8
FY2014E
14,584
31.0 1,304 61.4
15.2
8.0
1.1
7.7
2.4
Jaiprakash Associates (CMP: `91/ TP: under review)

For 2QFY2013, Jaiprakash Associates (JAL) reported mixed set of numbers with
subdued revenue performance but higher-than-expected numbers on EBITDAM
and PAT level. On the top-line front, companys registered a muted revenue
growth of 3.5% yoy to `3,005cr which was lower than our estimate of `3,231cr.
The cement segment had growth of 22.9% on a yoy basis however construction
segment revenue decline by 17% on a yoy basis respectively. Blended EBITDA
margins decline by 15bp/5bp on a yoy/qoq basis to 27.1% and was ahead of our
expectation of 25.2%. Cement margins of 9.7% led to good show on the margins
front. Interest cost stood at `464cr an increase of 23.3% on a yoy basis and was
flat on a sequential basis. Depreciation cost came at `178cr a jump of 23.4% on
yoy basis. Bottom-line came at `128cr a dip of 48.5% on a yoy basis but higher
our estimate due to higher EBITDAM and lower interest cost. The stock rating is
currently under review.
Y/E
Sales OPM
March
(` cr)
PAT EPS
(%) (` cr)
(`)
ROE
(%)
P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
14,619
25.8 1,053 5.0
8.3 18.3
1.5
9.2
2.4
FY2014E
16,790
24.7 1,211 5.7
8.8 15.9
1.3
8.5
2.1
Market Outlook
November 15, 2012
Simplex Infra (CMP: `190 / TP: Under Review)

For 2QFY2013, Simplex Infras (Simplex) reported modest set of numbers with
revenue coming in line with expectations but owing to better-than-expected
EBITDAM, earnings were higher than estimates. On the top-line front, Simplex
reported a muted growth of 5.7% yoy to `1,398cr, which was 1.6% higher than
our estimate. EBITDAM dipped by 99bp yoy to 8.5% for the quarter, and was
above our estimate of 8.1%. Interest cost came at `69.0cr, indicating a growth of
35.4% yoy. Adjusted PAT declined by 50.4% yoy to `12.0cr and was ahead of our
estimate of `10cr respectively. At the end of the quarter, the companys order
book stood at `15,203cr (2.4x trailing revenue). Simplex had order inflow of
`1,092cr for the quarter. The stock rating is currently under review. We shall revise
our estimates post earnings conference call with the management which is
scheduled on 15th November 2012 at 2.30pm.
Y/E
March
Sales OPM
(` cr)
PAT EPS
(%) (` cr)
ROE
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
6,732
8.1
116 23.4
9.2
8.1
0.7
6.2
0.8
FY2014E
7,837
8.4
146 29.4 10.6
6.5
0.7
5.8
0.7
S.Kumars Nationwide (CMP: `14/ TP Neutral, Upside: -)

For 2QFY2013, S.Kumars Nationwide (SKNL) reported a disappointing set of
numbers. On a standalone basis, the company's top-line declined by 3.5% yoy to
`829cr, 12.6% lower than our estimate of `948cr for the quarter. The companys
EBITDA margin witnesses a substantial contraction of 207bp yoy to 18.9% for the
quarter mainly on account of increase in raw material cost as a percent of net
sales from 70.5% in 2QFY2012 to 74.7% in 2QFY2013. During the quarter,
interest costs jumped by 28.3% yoy to `127cr from `99cr in 2QFY2012. The
depreciation for the quarter stood at `31cr, an increase of 41.0% yoy.
Consequently, the company reported a loss of `1cr, a decline of 101.5% yoy,
against our estimate of a profit of `30cr for the quarter.
On a consolidated basis, SKNL reported a 2.0% yoy decline in its top-line to
`1,503cr. The Indian operation witnessed a growth of 2.9% yoy to `1,250cr;
however, the revenue from international operations witnessed a substantial decline
of 20.4% yoy to `253cr. The operating margin contracted by 237bp yoy and stood
at 18.1% for the quarter, mainly on account of increase in raw material cost as a
percentage of net sales. During the quarter, interest costs jumped by 43.6% yoy to
`181cr from `126cr in 2QFY2012 resulting in a disappointing profit number. The
company reported a profit of `11cr for the quarter, a decline of 86.5% on a yoy
basis. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock. We may change
our estimates post interaction with the management.
Y/E
Sales OPM
March
(` cr)
FY2013E
6,765
18.1
FY2014E
7,393
18.0
PAT EPS
(%) (` cr)
ROE
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
191
6.4
6.1
2.1
0.1
3.5
0.6
224
7.5
6.7
1.8
0.1
3.5
0.6
Market Outlook
November 15, 2012
Economic and Political News
Exporters seek tax sops for SEZ

EU-IMF clash over Greece reignites Debt crisis fears
ATMs cross 1-lakh mark in october
Corporate News
Kingfisher fails to meet pay deadline

DLF aims to offload Aman Hotel by January
Piramal Group's PE arm to raise Rs 1,000-cr health care fund
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Market Outlook
November 15, 2012
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
November 15, 2012
% Change
3Q P
0.50
0.40
Oct
2.60
2.50
Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
3Q A
(0.20)
(0.10)
7:00PM
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Nov 10
355.00
375.00
7:00PM
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Oct
0.60
0.10
November 16, 2012
7:45PM
US
Industrial Production
Oct
0.41
0.20
November 19, 2012
8:30PM
US
Existing home sales
Millions
Oct
4.75
4.75
November 20, 2012
7:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Oct
872.00
840.00
7:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Oct
890.00
865.00
2:00PM
Germany PMI Services
Value
Nov A
48.40
--
2:00PM
Germany PMI Manufacturing
Value
Nov A
46.00
--
8:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
3:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
November 22, 2012
November 27, 2012
12:30PM
Germany GDP nsa (YoY)
3:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
3:30PM
Value
Nov A
(25.70)
--
% Change
3Q P
--
--
S.A./ 1985=100
Nov
72.20
--
Thousands
Oct
389.00
--
8:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
November 28, 2012
8:30PM
US
New home sales
November 29, 2012
2:25PM
Germany Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Nov
20.00
--
7:00PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
3Q S
2.00
--
November 30, 2012
11:00AM
India
Qtrly GDP YoY%
% Change
3Q
5.50
--
December 01, 2012
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Nov
50.20
--
December 03, 2012
3:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
December 06, 2012
5:30PM
UK
BOE Announces rates
6:15PM
Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates
3:00PM
UK
December 07, 2012
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Industrial Production (YoY)
Value
Nov
47.50
--
% Ratio
Dec 6
0.50
0.50
Dec 6
0.75
--
% Change
Oct
(2.60)
--
Market Strategy
November 15, 2012
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
10.0
9.2
9.0
8.5
9.0
8.2
8.0
7.6
7.5
8.0
6.7
7.0
6.1
5.7
6.0
5.3 5.5
5.0
4.0
3.5
1QFY13
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
2QFY10
1QFY10
4QFY09
3.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
Mfg. PMI
60.0
12.0
9.9
10.0
58.0
9.5
7.7
8.0
Services PMI
6.9
7.4
7.7
7.5
7.6
7.6
7.5
7.6
7.8
56.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

(%)
Sep-11
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
48.0
Feb-12
0.0
Jan-12
50.0
Dec-11
2.0
Nov-11
52.0
Oct-11
4.0
Oct-11
54.0
6.0
Exports yoy growth
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Repo rate
(%)
9.00
Imports yoy growth
45.0
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
8.00
8.00
30.0
7.00
7.00
15.0
6.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
4.25
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
4.00
Dec-11
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
5.00
Nov-11
(30.0)
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
(15.0)
Oct-11
0.0
Market Outlook
November 15, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
159
3,089
1,466
1,686
14.8
14.8
7.0
8.1
22.7
19.6
4.8
4.1
22.6
22.5
2.2
1.9
United Phosphorus
Buy
112
170
5,146
8,421
9,263
16.5
16.5
15.0
17.0
7.4
6.6
1.1
1.0
15.6
15.5
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Neutral
257
4,396
2,911
3,321
16.2
16.2
17.3
19.8
14.9
13.0
4.1
3.2
31.1
27.6
1.4
1.2
Apollo Tyres
Buy
82
104
4,110
13,713
15,341
11.2
11.2
12.5
14.8
6.5
5.5
1.2
1.0
20.2
19.9
0.5
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
27
31
7,184
14,490
16,606
9.5
9.6
2.2
2.9
12.1
9.5
2.3
2.0
13.6
16.1
0.6
0.5
Automotive Axle#
Accumulate
383
430
578
993
1,140
11.6
11.5
36.9
43.0
10.4
8.9
2.1
1.8
21.2
21.3
0.6
0.5
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
1,845
53,375
21,121
23,642
18.4
18.5
108.7
122.6
17.0
15.0
7.0
5.6
46.2
41.6
2.2
1.8
Bharat Forge
Buy
259
324
6,027
6,754
7,565
15.5
15.7
18.8
23.2
13.8
11.2
2.4
2.0
18.5
19.7
1.1
0.9
Bosch India*
Neutral
8,900
27,944
8,776
10,276
16.6
18.0
331.9
417.7
26.8
21.3
5.0
4.2
18.7
19.5
2.8
2.4
CEAT
Buy
107
163
365
4,989
5,634
8.2
8.5
27.1
40.8
3.9
2.6
0.5
0.4
13.2
17.2
0.3
0.2
Exide Industries
Accumulate
140
155
11,862
6,229
7,200
14.8
15.8
7.2
9.0
19.5
15.6
3.4
2.9
18.5
19.9
1.6
1.3
FAG Bearings*
Neutral
1,685
2,800
1,489
1,750
16.5
17.5
103.3
126.9
16.3
13.3
3.2
2.6
21.3
21.6
1.7
1.3
Hero Motocorp
Neutral
1,869
37,323
24,743
27,996
14.8
15.2
118.2
130.4
15.8
14.3
6.8
5.4
48.3
41.9
1.2
1.0
JK Tyre
Buy
116
165
476
7,517
8,329
6.6
6.6
37.2
41.3
3.1
2.8
0.6
0.5
18.8
17.8
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
907
986
55,657
40,035
46,272
11.5
11.6
54.7
62.8
16.6
14.4
3.7
3.1
24.3
23.4
1.2
1.0
Maruti
Neutral
1,461
42,208
42,019
50,246
7.3
8.6
66.1
94.4
22.1
15.5
2.5
2.2
11.9
15.1
0.8
0.7
Motherson Sumi
Neutral
166
9,770
24,285
27,317
6.7
7.2
8.1
10.6
20.7
15.7
4.4
3.5
22.9
24.7
0.6
0.5
Subros
Accumulate
31
35
183
1,342
1,517
9.0
8.9
3.7
5.8
8.2
5.2
0.7
0.6
8.2
12.3
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Buy
277
319
73,930 192,330 219,770
12.8
13.1
37.0
44.5
7.5
6.2
2.1
1.6
31.2
28.9
0.4
0.4
TVS Motor
Accumulate
40
45
1,891
7,466
8,290
6.2
6.3
4.8
5.6
8.3
7.1
1.4
1.2
18.2
18.7
0.2
0.2
Capital Goods
ABB*
Sell
727
593
15,412
8,760
10,023
6.2
8.7
14.5
24.7
50.3
29.4
5.5
4.8
11.6
17.6
1.7
1.5
BGR Energy
Neutral
264
1,907
3,669
4,561
11.0
11.0
24.7
29.6
10.7
8.9
1.6
1.4
15.3
16.7
1.0
1.0
BHEL
Neutral
232
56,821
47,801
43,757
18.5
18.0
24.6
21.8
9.4
10.7
2.8
2.4
33.5
24.5
1.1
1.2
Blue Star
Buy
193
249
1,731
2,763
2,948
3.2
5.6
3.5
9.1
55.7
21.1
4.2
3.6
7.7
18.4
0.7
0.6
Crompton Greaves
Buy
112
145
7,188
12,370
14,277
5.2
7.3
4.0
7.8
28.0
14.4
1.9
1.7
6.9
12.6
0.6
0.6
Jyoti Structures
Buy
44
54
358
2,622
2,744
10.7
10.5
9.6
12.2
4.5
3.6
0.5
0.4
10.8
12.3
0.4
0.3
KEC International
Buy
62
73
1,597
6,858
7,431
7.1
7.5
8.3
9.8
7.5
6.4
1.3
1.1
25.1
24.0
0.4
0.3
LMW
Reduce
2,122
1,992
2,391
2,369
2,727
11.7
11.7
143.4
166.0
14.8
12.8
2.5
2.3
17.4
18.4
0.5
0.4
Thermax
Neutral
583
6,945
5,514
5,813
9.3
10.2
28.1
31.2
20.7
18.7
3.7
3.3
19.2
18.5
1.1
1.0
Market Outlook
November 15, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,424
26,738
11,085
12,415
21.6
21.4
79.4
83.1
17.9
17.2
3.5
3.1
20.1
19.2
2.1
1.8
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
210
32,379
10,272
11,884
26.4
26.1
11.5
12.9
18.4
16.3
4.0
3.6
20.8
21.1
2.8
2.3
India Cements
Neutral
89
2,722
4,354
4,929
18.6
18.7
9.8
12.3
9.0
7.2
0.8
0.7
8.6
10.2
1.1
0.9
J K Lakshmi Cements
Neutral
139
1,697
2,082
2,423
22.9
23.1
20.8
22.5
6.7
6.2
1.2
1.0
18.4
17.4
0.9
1.2
Madras Cements
Neutral
217
5,159
3,608
3,928
27.6
27.0
15.7
18.3
13.8
11.9
2.2
1.9
16.9
17.0
2.1
1.8
Shree Cements^
Neutral
4,324
15,064
5,701
6,210
29.7
28.1
240.7
260.7
18.0
16.6
4.4
3.6
27.1
23.6
2.1
1.7
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,990
54,565
21,368
24,043
22.5
23.5
103.5
121.4
19.2
16.4
3.6
3.0
20.2
20.1
2.5
2.3
215
304
1,132
2,034
2,315
22.4
22.4
27.1
31.7
7.9
6.8
1.0
0.9
13.1
13.4
1.8
2.1
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
14
257
2,262
2,522
6.7
7.5
1.5
2.7
9.4
5.2
0.4
0.4
4.4
7.5
0.4
0.4
Hind. Const.
Neutral
18
1,065
4,239
4,522
9.9
11.2
(2.3)
(1.0)
(7.8)
(18.2)
1.0
1.1
(11.4)
(5.6)
1.2
1.2
IRB Infra
Buy
125
164
4,166
3,843
4,212
43.1
43.6
16.8
17.8
7.4
7.0
1.3
1.1
18.3
17.0
3.2
3.5
ITNL
Buy
192
225
3,735
6,564
7,054
27.2
27.4
26.3
29.0
7.3
6.6
1.2
1.0
14.0
11.8
2.7
2.7
IVRCL Infra
Buy
40
51
1,223
5,510
6,722
8.8
9.0
2.5
4.6
15.7
8.7
0.5
0.5
3.4
5.8
0.7
0.7
Jaiprakash Asso.
Neutral
91
19,572
15,259
17,502
25.7
24.7
4.0
4.8
22.6
19.0
1.8
1.6
8.5
9.3
2.6
2.3
Larsen & Toubro
Accumulate
1,606
1,748
98,772
60,556
69,167
11.2
11.6
73.8
85.5
21.8
18.8
3.5
3.0
13.5
14.1
1.8
1.6
Madhucon Proj
Buy
36
56
262
2,206
2,502
10.7
10.7
4.6
4.7
7.7
7.6
0.4
0.4
5.2
5.0
0.7
0.7
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
43
1,108
5,947
6,569
8.5
8.6
3.1
4.1
13.9
10.5
0.5
0.4
3.3
4.2
0.6
0.6
Patel Engg.
Neutral
77
540
3,609
3,836
13.1
13.1
14.0
14.6
5.5
5.3
0.3
0.3
6.3
6.1
1.0
1.0
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
51
1,709
11,892
13,116
9.0
9.0
1.8
3.2
28.4
16.0
0.6
0.6
2.5
3.7
0.6
0.5
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
141
182
2,123
2,506
3,147
10.3
10.7
7.5
10.4
18.7
13.5
2.3
2.0
13.5
16.0
1.0
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
190
265
940
6,732
7,837
8.1
8.4
23.4
29.4
8.1
6.5
0.7
0.7
9.2
10.6
0.5
0.5
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
142
7,115
6,944
7,884
3.0
3.1
35.5
37.0
4.0
3.9
0.7
0.6
17.2
15.7
Andhra Bank
Reduce
Axis Bank
Buy
Bank of Baroda
Financials
105
97
5,895
4,929
5,633
3.1
3.1
23.7
24.5
4.4
4.3
0.7
0.7
16.6
15.3
1,224
1,476
52,220
15,686
18,687
3.1
3.2
116.8
138.0
10.5
8.9
1.9
1.7
20.0
20.2
Accumulate
756
817
29,585
15,436
18,208
2.5
2.6
111.8
137.4
6.8
5.5
1.0
0.9
15.8
17.0
Bank of India
Neutral
282
16,192
12,491
14,883
2.2
2.4
43.8
63.7
6.4
4.4
0.8
0.7
12.1
15.8
Bank of Maharashtra
Neutral
53
3,137
3,563
3,876
3.1
3.1
9.7
12.0
5.5
4.4
0.8
0.7
14.6
16.1
Canara Bank
Neutral
436
19,306
10,905
12,783
2.1
2.2
74.9
85.1
5.8
5.1
0.9
0.8
15.1
15.3
Central Bank
Neutral
75
5,543
7,095
8,102
2.5
2.7
15.6
21.0
4.8
3.6
0.8
0.7
12.2
14.7
Market Outlook
November 15, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Financials
Corporation Bank
Accumulate
402
447
5,959
4,886
5,669
2.1
2.2
101.3
101.8
4.0
4.0
0.7
0.6
17.0
15.1
Dena Bank
Reduce
112
106
3,936
3,147
3,495
2.8
2.9
24.8
24.4
4.5
4.6
0.8
0.7
18.7
15.9
Federal Bank
Neutral
470
8,038
2,617
2,968
3.3
3.2
45.9
51.7
10.3
9.1
1.3
1.2
13.1
13.3
HDFC
Neutral
782
120,452
7,336
8,802
3.5
3.5
31.5
37.8
24.8
20.7
5.0
4.4
34.8
32.1
HDFC Bank
Neutral
647
153,007
21,696
26,811
4.4
4.5
28.7
36.0
22.6
18.0
4.3
3.7
20.7
22.0
ICICI Bank
Buy
1,059
1,270
121,742
22,271
26,690
3.0
3.0
69.2
83.1
15.3
12.8
1.9
1.7
14.2
15.7
IDBI Bank
Neutral
106
13,602
7,684
9,264
1.8
2.1
15.6
22.0
6.8
4.9
0.8
0.7
10.9
13.9
Indian Bank
Neutral
176
7,570
5,874
6,551
3.2
3.2
40.6
41.8
4.3
4.2
0.7
0.6
18.1
16.4
IOB
Neutral
76
6,017
7,050
8,313
2.3
2.5
12.3
19.9
6.2
3.8
0.6
0.5
8.8
13.1
J & K Bank
Reduce
1,379
1,282
6,685
2,762
2,885
3.6
3.6
226.7
193.0
6.1
7.1
1.4
1.2
24.4
17.7
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
252
298
12,697
1,799
2,255
2.3
2.4
20.3
27.3
12.4
9.2
2.0
1.7
16.9
19.7
Oriental Bank
Neutral
318
9,269
6,277
7,090
2.6
2.7
60.5
65.1
5.3
4.9
0.8
0.7
15.0
14.4
Punjab Natl.Bank
Accumulate
767
819
26,030
19,652
22,601
3.2
3.3
135.0
164.3
5.7
4.7
1.0
0.8
16.3
17.3
South Ind.Bank
Accumulate
23
25
3,118
1,556
1,750
2.8
2.7
3.5
3.9
6.7
6.1
1.1
1.0
19.1
16.9
St Bk of India
Accumulate
2,172
2,353
145,748
63,806
73,435
3.5
3.6
225.7
258.4
9.6
8.4
1.6
1.4
17.7
17.8
Syndicate Bank
Neutral
123
7,383
6,756
7,783
3.0
3.0
26.3
27.1
4.7
4.5
0.8
0.7
18.3
16.6
UCO Bank
Neutral
73
4,882
5,411
6,124
2.4
2.5
17.0
16.5
4.3
4.5
0.8
0.8
16.7
14.4
Union Bank
Neutral
229
12,583
9,912
11,536
2.8
2.9
40.4
46.7
5.7
4.9
0.9
0.8
16.1
16.4
United Bank
Accumulate
66
74
2,379
3,572
4,041
2.8
2.9
17.2
22.1
3.8
3.0
0.5
0.5
14.2
16.2
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
55
2,748
2,490
2,881
2.1
2.2
9.2
11.4
6.0
4.9
0.7
0.7
11.5
13.0
Yes Bank
Buy
422
492
15,067
3,270
4,240
2.8
3.0
34.5
42.2
12.3
10.0
2.6
2.1
23.5
23.5
4,084
39,173
11,198
13,184
16.2
16.2
123.7
146.4
33.0
27.9
11.2
8.8
38.1
35.4
3.4
2.9
470
584
5,619
5,835
6,824
5.7
6.0
20.7
25.4
22.7
18.5
9.0
6.9
43.1
41.9
0.9
0.7
1,332
18,116
3,146
3,573
20.6
21.4
36.4
42.5
36.6
31.4
33.9
28.4
102.0
98.5
5.6
4.9
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Buy
Colgate
Neutral
Dabur India
Neutral
126
22,004
6,124
7,101
17.0
16.8
4.5
5.2
28.3
24.1
11.6
9.2
43.2
41.5
3.6
3.1
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
3,023
12,714
3,124
3,663
17.1
17.6
104.5
123.8
28.9
24.4
9.0
7.2
34.4
32.8
3.7
3.1
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
695
23,651
6,355
7,548
18.4
18.6
22.8
27.6
30.5
25.2
7.0
5.7
26.4
26.1
3.9
3.2
HUL
Neutral
529
114,398
25,350
28,974
13.3
13.5
14.7
17.1
35.9
31.0
28.4
20.1
84.5
75.8
4.3
3.7
ITC
Neutral
284
223,194
29,409
34,060
35.7
36.1
9.3
10.9
30.5
26.0
10.1
8.4
35.8
35.3
7.3
6.2
Market Outlook
November 15, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FMCG
Marico
Neutral
229
14,764
4,840
5,643
13.1
13.1
6.2
7.8
37.1
29.4
7.1
5.8
25.4
22.6
3.1
2.6
Nestle*
Neutral
4,785
46,138
8,610
10,174
20.9
21.2
114.8
139.8
41.7
34.2
25.2
17.5
71.2
60.3
5.4
4.5
Tata Global
Neutral
171
10,602
7,207
7,927
9.7
10.0
6.6
7.8
25.9
21.9
2.6
2.5
8.6
9.5
1.4
1.2
HCL Tech^
Accumulate
614
648
42,630
24,214
26,772
19.5
18.1
44.0
48.0
14.0
12.8
3.3
2.8
24.0
22.0
1.7
1.5
Hexaware*
Buy
111
135
3,302
1,944
2,159
21.8
21.1
11.4
12.2
9.8
9.1
2.5
2.1
26.4
24.1
1.4
1.2
Infosys
Accumulate
2,339
2,573
134,313
39,174
41,580
29.5
30.4
159.2
171.6
14.7
13.6
3.6
3.2
24.1
23.1
2.9
2.6
Infotech Enterprises
Accumulate
191
202
2,125
1,886
2,032
17.9
17.3
18.7
20.2
10.2
9.5
1.5
1.3
14.9
14.0
0.8
0.6
KPIT Cummins
Accumulate
120
132
2,148
2,195
2,317
15.5
15.0
10.7
12.1
11.2
10.0
2.4
1.9
21.0
19.8
1.0
0.9
Mahindra Satyam
Accumulate
108
115
12,728
7,597
8,141
20.0
18.8
9.7
10.4
11.2
10.4
3.1
2.4
27.5
22.9
1.3
1.1
Mindtree
Accumulate
693
747
2,840
2,324
2,437
20.0
17.7
73.3
74.7
9.5
9.3
2.3
1.8
24.1
19.7
1.0
0.8
Mphasis&
Neutral
392
8,238
5,700
5,993
18.0
16.9
37.0
37.3
10.6
10.5
1.5
1.3
14.3
12.6
1.0
0.8
NIIT
Accumulate
33
36
548
1,034
1,146
9.9
11.0
5.2
6.4
6.4
5.2
0.8
0.7
12.8
14.3
0.4
0.3
Persistent
Neutral
480
1,922
1,261
1,352
26.4
24.7
48.2
54.0
10.0
8.9
1.9
1.6
19.0
17.9
1.2
1.0
TCS
Accumulate
1,325
1,410
259,342
61,053
67,313
28.7
29.1
69.7
76.2
19.0
17.4
6.2
5.1
32.6
29.1
4.0
3.6
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
945
1,070
12,067
6,603
7,150
19.8
18.4
92.9
102.0
10.2
9.3
2.4
1.9
23.7
21.0
1.9
1.7
Wipro
Accumulate
369
421
90,968
43,219
47,241
20.0
20.0
26.1
28.1
14.1
13.2
2.7
2.4
19.3
17.9
1.8
1.5
D B Corp
Buy
209
259
3,832
1,581
1,784
23.3
25.0
11.6
14.4
18.0
14.5
3.5
3.0
21.0
22.3
2.3
2.0
HT Media
Buy
97
113
2,273
2,111
2,272
15.0
15.2
7.4
8.3
13.1
11.7
1.4
1.3
11.3
11.4
0.7
0.6
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
101
117
3,183
1,503
1,681
23.1
23.1
6.4
7.3
15.7
13.9
3.9
3.5
25.8
26.5
2.3
2.0
PVR
Neutral
238
686
625
732
17.4
17.1
13.3
15.6
17.9
15.2
1.9
1.7
13.2
13.8
1.5
1.3
Sun TV Network
Neutral
344
13,555
1,981
2,239
77.0
76.7
18.6
21.3
18.5
16.1
4.7
4.1
27.1
27.5
6.3
5.4
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
493
10,469
11,979
14,584
31.6
31.0
49.2
61.4
10.0
8.0
1.3
1.1
14.1
15.2
2.9
2.4
Coal India
Accumulate
346
368
218,515
66,666
70,292
25.7
27.3
24.2
26.6
14.3
13.0
4.2
3.4
33.1
29.1
2.3
2.0
Electrosteel Castings
Accumulate
26
29
905
1,984
2,074
10.6
11.6
0.8
2.0
31.3
12.9
0.5
0.2
1.7
4.1
0.7
0.6
Hind. Zinc
Accumulate
136
145
57,295
12,446
13,538
52.3
52.9
15.0
16.4
9.1
8.3
1.8
1.5
21.4
19.7
2.7
2.1
Hindalco
Neutral
113
21,702
79,148
89,258
9.4
9.0
15.0
15.6
7.6
7.3
0.6
0.6
8.8
8.4
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
749
16,717
39,586
41,459
17.6
17.0
78.7
90.1
9.5
8.3
0.9
0.9
10.2
10.7
0.8
0.8
MOIL
Accumulate
247
261
4,148
941
1,019
47.3
48.3
25.8
28.1
9.6
8.8
1.5
1.3
16.7
16.2
2.0
1.7
Monnet Ispat
Buy
285
379
1,834
2,511
3,303
23.8
26.0
46.3
57.3
6.2
5.0
0.7
0.6
12.4
13.7
1.7
1.2
IT
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
November 15, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
46
11,739
6,898
177
198
70,334
11,209
FY13E
FY14E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY13E
FY14E
7,841
9.9
14.7
12,525
78.4
78.3
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
2.0
3.2
23.0
14.3
1.0
1.0
18.5
20.6
9.6
8.6
2.3
1.9
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
4.3
6.8
1.2
1.1
27.0
24.6
4.3
3.7
Metals & Mining

Nalco
Neutral
NMDC
Accumulate
SAIL
Neutral
80
33,168
47,252
60,351
14.2
14.8
9.6
11.7
8.4
6.8
0.8
0.7
9.4
10.6
1.2
1.0
Sesa Goa
Accumulate
174
183
15,088
4,551
6,640
32.8
34.4
33.7
39.3
5.2
4.4
0.9
0.8
18.3
18.3
4.0
2.7
Sterlite Inds
Accumulate
100
110
33,758
43,185
45,442
23.3
23.7
16.8
17.9
6.0
5.6
0.7
0.6
11.6
11.2
0.8
0.7
Tata Steel
Buy
386
463
37,489 145,725 154,108
8.3
9.5
22.0
44.5
17.5
8.7
0.8
0.8
4.9
9.3
0.5
0.5
Sarda
Accumulate
143
153
514
1,442
1,494
17.6
17.3
27.2
28.7
5.3
5.0
0.6
0.5
11.5
11.0
0.7
0.7
Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas
Buy
49
73
662
2,694
2,906
14.6
16.6
16.4
20.8
3.0
2.4
0.3
0.3
11.4
12.8
0.5
0.3
Buy
117
143
373
2,342
2,470
13.7
15.3
27.7
33.8
4.2
3.5
0.4
0.4
10.9
11.4
0.6
0.6
Cairn India
Buy
332
382
63,413
17,567
17,643
76.2
72.3
61.1
56.8
5.4
5.8
1.1
1.0
22.0
17.5
2.8
2.4
GAIL
Neutral
352
44,593
46,652
54,142
15.7
15.7
34.0
35.3
10.3
10.0
1.8
1.6
18.5
16.8
0.7
0.5
ONGC
Buy
257
312
219,619 147,139 154,821
33.9
33.7
30.7
32.3
8.4
8.0
1.5
1.3
18.3
17.2
1.2
1.1
Reliance Industries
Neutral
790
258,575 362,700 380,031
7.9
8.0
60.0
63.3
13.2
12.5
1.3
1.2
11.1
10.6
0.7
0.7
Gujarat Gas*
Neutral
300
3,707
13.2
11.7
22.8
23.5
13.2
12.7
4.0
3.5
33.2
29.2
1.1
0.9
Indraprastha Gas
Neutral
256
3,580
3,213
3,643
23.3
23.5
24.3
25.7
10.5
9.9
2.4
2.0
25.0
22.1
1.2
1.1
Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals
Accumulate
166
183
12,480
30,077
33,570
6.6
6.3
15.1
15.3
11.0
10.9
2.8
2.3
28.4
23.1
0.5
0.4
75
4,201
1,079
1,034
91.8
91.9
8.8
8.4
8.5
8.9
1.4
1.3
17.9
15.0
3.6
3.7
Alembic Pharma
Buy
69
91
1,292
1,624
1,855
14.2
15.6
6.6
9.1
10.4
7.5
2.6
2.0
27.9
29.9
0.9
0.8
Aurobindo Pharma
Neutral
178
5,189
5,243
5,767
14.6
14.6
11.8
12.6
15.1
14.2
1.9
1.6
17.9
16.4
1.5
1.3
Aventis*
Neutral
2,190
5,044
1,482
1,682
15.5
15.5
95.1
104.4
23.0
21.0
4.1
3.2
18.6
17.0
3.2
2.7
Cadila Healthcare
Accumulate
851
926
17,423
6,148
7,386
18.6
19.6
32.7
44.8
26.0
19.0
5.7
4.6
23.7
26.6
3.2
2.6
Cipla
Accumulate
394
419
31,663
8,151
9,130
25.0
24.0
19.5
20.9
20.2
18.9
3.5
3.0
18.8
17.2
3.7
3.2
Dr Reddy's
Accumulate
1,756
1,859
29,804
10,696
11,662
20.7
21.0
83.7
92.9
21.0
18.9
4.3
3.6
22.4
20.8
3.1
2.7
Dishman Pharma
Buy
121
145
972
1,280
1,536
20.2
20.2
10.4
14.5
11.6
8.3
1.0
0.9
8.7
11.0
1.4
1.2
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,007
16,997
2,651
2,993
31.7
31.2
76.0
82.4
26.4
24.4
7.6
6.8
20.1
26.3
5.6
4.9
Indoco Remedies
Buy
70
89
645
685
837
15.2
15.2
7.4
8.9
9.5
7.9
1.4
1.3
16.4
17.0
1.1
0.9
Ipca labs
Accumulate
436
485
5,495
2,850
3,474
21.0
21.0
29.9
37.3
14.6
11.7
3.5
2.8
26.7
26.4
2.1
1.7
Lupin
Accumulate
585
652
26,150
8,426
10,082
19.7
20.0
26.3
31.3
22.2
18.7
5.2
4.2
26.0
24.7
3.2
2.7
Orchid Chemicals
Neutral
104
729
1,667
1,835
13.9
13.9
11.4
13.3
9.1
7.8
0.6
0.6
6.6
7.3
0.9
0.8
Neutral
3,845
3,128
Market Outlook
November 15, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Pharmaceuticals
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
532
22,454
12,046
11,980
18.0
15.8
31.3
29.8
17.0
17.8
5.8
4.7
39.1
28.9
1.9
1.8
Sun Pharma
Neutral
689
71,272
9,752
12,134
41.6
41.6
26.0
28.2
26.5
24.4
5.0
4.3
20.3
18.8
6.6
5.1
CESC
Neutral
277
3,465
5,218
5,644
24.2
23.8
44.6
47.6
6.2
5.8
0.7
0.6
11.0
10.6
1.4
1.5
GIPCL
Accumulate
NTPC
Neutral
Power
69
77
1,043
1,557
1,573
29.3
28.7
10.8
11.0
6.4
6.3
0.7
0.6
10.8
10.2
1.1
1.0
167
137,617
74,111
85,789
22.7
23.1
12.1
13.7
13.8
12.1
1.7
1.5
12.6
13.2
2.5
2.3
Real Estate
Anant Raj
Sell
97
78
2,851
657
875
52.0
56.1
8.4
12.7
11.5
7.6
0.7
0.7
6.3
8.9
5.6
4.2
DLF
Neutral
203
34,439
9,878
12,033
44.7
46.1
9.6
13.4
21.2
15.1
1.3
1.3
6.4
8.7
6.0
4.9
HDIL
Accumulate
108
115
4,525
2,441
3,344
55.1
48.2
22.7
26.6
4.8
4.1
0.4
0.4
8.8
9.4
3.7
2.8
MLIFE
Neutral
411
1,676
813
901
26.2
26.6
32.0
37.1
12.8
11.1
1.3
1.2
10.4
11.0
2.4
2.1
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
283
107,337
79,842
86,098
31.2
32.0
9.1
12.9
31.0
22.0
2.0
1.9
6.5
8.4
2.0
1.8
Idea Cellular
Neutral
92
30,511
22,234
24,161
26.9
27.7
3.3
4.9
27.9
18.7
2.2
1.9
7.7
10.3
1.8
1.6
Rcom
Neutral
61
12,487
20,650
20,935
32.3
33.0
4.2
5.8
14.3
10.5
0.3
0.3
2.3
3.1
2.2
2.1
Abbott India
Neutral
1,463
3,108
1,602
1,833
10.4
11.8
54.7
71.7
26.8
20.4
5.1
4.3
20.0
22.7
1.7
1.5
Bajaj Electricals
Accumulate
197
217
1,966
3,497
3,968
6.6
7.6
9.8
15.5
20.1
12.7
2.6
2.2
12.7
17.4
0.6
0.5
Cera Sanitaryware
Neutral
396
502
427
528
15.7
14.6
30.0
34.0
13.2
11.7
2.9
2.4
24.6
22.5
1.3
1.1
Cravatex
Buy
455
545
118
272
308
7.2
7.3
37.5
45.4
12.1
10.0
2.9
2.3
23.7
22.7
0.5
0.5
CRISIL
Neutral
940
6,599
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
27.4
23.5
12.4
9.9
50.9
46.9
6.3
5.3
Finolex Cables
Accumulate
53
61
809
2,304
2,552
9.9
9.1
8.2
10.1
6.5
5.3
0.9
0.8
13.7
14.7
0.3
0.3
Force Motors
Accumulate
495
537
645
2,318
2,700
5.0
5.7
45.0
67.0
11.0
7.4
0.6
0.5
5.0
7.0
0.2
0.2
Goodyear India
Neutral
319
736
1,543
1,654
6.5
7.3
24.8
31.1
12.8
10.3
2.1
1.8
17.1
19.0
0.3
0.2
Disa India
Buy
2,809
3,353
424
176
203
22.7
22.6
182.5
209.6
15.4
13.4
8.0
6.3
51.8
47.1
2.2
1.8
Greenply Industries
Accumulate
289
309
697
1,925
2,235
10.6
10.9
29.6
44.1
9.8
6.6
1.6
1.3
16.8
21.0
0.6
0.5
Hitachi
Neutral
133
305
868
977
3.9
6.6
2.7
10.9
48.4
12.2
1.8
1.6
3.7
13.6
0.4
0.4
Honeywell Automation* Neutral
2,721
2,406
1,745
1,993
4.0
5.3
59.5
90.4
45.7
30.1
3.5
3.0
8.1
11.3
1.3
1.1
1,138
1,059
1,116
8.5
9.5
36.0
42.0
18.0
15.4
2.6
2.3
15.4
16.0
1.1
1.0
Telecom
zOthers
Styrolution ABS India*
Accumulate
647
744
ITD Cementation
Neutral
253
291
1,323
1,455
12.4
12.4
23.2
27.7
10.9
9.1
0.7
0.7
6.8
7.6
0.7
0.6
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
179
2,881
1,228
1,443
9.0
10.9
3.9
6.4
46.0
28.0
4.6
4.2
10.1
15.6
2.8
2.4
MCX
Reduce
1,591
1,440
8,114
553
624
65.3
66.3
62.5
72.0
25.5
22.1
7.0
6.1
27.5
27.4
11.7
9.9
MRF
Buy
10,206
12,884
4,329
11,804
12,727
10.4
10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3
7.9
7.1
1.5
1.3
21.3
19.4
0.5
0.4
Market Outlook
November 15, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
3,319
3,602
811
933
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
3,702
836
1,023
20.2
20.6
105.6
133.4
31.4
24.9
16.0
11.3
59.3
53.2
4.5
3.7
973
1,019
1,208
11.0
12.5
47.0
66.7
17.3
12.2
4.3
3.2
28.2
30.1
1.1
0.9
zOthers
Page Industries
Accumulate
Relaxo Footwears
Buy
Sintex Industries
Buy
66
79
1,792
4,751
5,189
16.3
16.6
13.6
15.8
4.8
4.2
0.6
0.6
12.9
13.2
0.7
0.6
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
313
366
293
1,043
1,149
12.3
12.9
65.7
73.3
4.8
4.3
0.9
0.8
21.0
19.6
0.5
0.5
S. Kumars Nationwide
Neutral
14
407
7,134
7,985
19.7
19.4
12.2
14.1
1.1
1.0
0.1
0.1
11.3
11.5
0.6
0.6
SpiceJet
Buy
35
43
1,673
5,720
6,599
5.3
6.8
3.6
5.4
9.6
6.4
13.9
4.4
0.4
0.3
TAJ GVK
Buy
73
108
456
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
9.2
8.0
1.2
1.1
13.9
14.4
1.8
1.6
Tata Sponge Iron
Buy
319
384
491
750
803
18.6
18.4
65.4
69.1
4.9
4.6
0.8
0.7
16.5
15.3
0.3
0.2
TVS Srichakra
Buy
290
335
222
1,476
1,643
7.0
8.2
32.6
55.9
8.9
5.2
1.4
1.2
16.8
24.8
0.4
0.3
United Spirits
Neutral
1,807
23,630
10,289
11,421
12.8
12.8
26.0
45.3
69.5
39.9
3.2
2.9
5.8
7.6
2.7
2.4
Vesuvius India
Neutral
347
703
560
611
16.1
17.0
24.7
28.8
14.0
12.1
2.1
1.8
15.8
16.2
1.1
1.0
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on November 13, 2012
Market Outlook
November 15, 2012

Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook

November 15, 2012

The US markets, after failing to maintain an initial upward move, moved

(1.5) (185.2) 12,571

Decline in IIP by 0.4% during September disappoints

Net Inflows (November 09, 2012)

FII Derivatives (November 08, 2012)

OIL & GAS

Decline in IIP by 0.4% during September disappoints

As far as a change in monetary policy stance is concerned, we continue to believe

WPI inflation moderates slightly while CPI inflation remains high

Trade deficit widens to record-high during October 2012

2G auction ends in two days, half of blocks unsold

JLR retail sales up 10% yoy in October 2012

Bhushan Steel (CMP: `493/TP: - /Upside: -)

31.6 1,045 49.2

31.0 1,304 61.4

Jaiprakash Associates (CMP: `91/ TP: under review)

P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

25.8 1,053 5.0

24.7 1,211 5.7

Simplex Infra (CMP: `190 / TP: Under Review)

P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

146 29.4 10.6

S.Kumars Nationwide (CMP: `14/ TP Neutral, Upside: -)

P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

Economic and Political News

Exporters seek tax sops for SEZ

Kingfisher fails to meet pay deadline

Country Event Description

November 15, 2012

Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)

Initial Jobless claims

Consumer price index (mom)

November 16, 2012

November 19, 2012

Existing home sales

November 20, 2012

Germany PMI Services

Germany PMI Manufacturing

Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence

November 22, 2012

November 27, 2012

Germany GDP nsa (YoY)

Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

November 28, 2012

New home sales

November 29, 2012

Germany Unemployment change (000's)

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

November 30, 2012

Qtrly GDP YoY%

December 01, 2012

December 03, 2012

December 06, 2012

BOE Announces rates

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates

December 07, 2012

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Industrial Production (YoY)

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research