Development Challenges st Century of the 21

Asian Development Bank Transport Forum November 2012

What depends on what?

nature

people economy business

From McDonalds to Species Extinction

2010 2020: VOLATILITY

(The Age of Fear Wall Street Journal)

volatile input costs volatile prices volatile consumer buying patterns increasing complexity and risk in supply chains changing demographics/world population shifts shift to a multipolar world increasing socio-economic/political tensions increasing scarcity of finite natural resources increasing propensity of food and water shortages increasing frequency of natural disasters and epidemics climate change, peak oil, peak elements, and so on ocean acidification and dead zones rapid decline in biodiversity increasing inequality, rising world poverty increasing mental health issues and stress-related illnesses exponential growth in population and consumption rates.

Worsening per capita water availability

Slide 8

The link between food and water

Source: United Nations Environment Program 2008

How much water?

1 pound of lettuce 1 pound of tomatoes 1 pound of potatoes 1 pound of wheat 1 pound of carrots 1 pound of apples 1 pound of chicken 1 pound of pork 1 pound grain fed beef 23 gallons 23 gallons 24 gallons 25 gallons 33 gallons 49 gallons 815 gallons 1,630 gallons 3000 gallons

Slide 10

University of California

Percent Increase in Nitrogen Flows in Rivers

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Slide 12

The percentage of undernourished people is rising

Food security in Asia

soils.usda.gov/.../food-security-asia.html

7,076,700,000 (03/11/12)

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (2007).

Urbanisation in Asia
China needs to build 3 cities larger than Sydney every year until 2030 to accommodate rural to urban migration.

Image source: The Chinese UPLA urban planning network, http://www.upla.cn Statistic derived from analysis of the United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision Population Database

ENERGY
Historic link between energy consumption & development Asian dependence on coal, then oil, gas, hydro Asia Pacific region 38.1% total energy, >67% total coal Need to address fossil fuel subsidies Need to reduce carbon intensity of growth Moving away from fossil fuels to?

Options for change

Emission reduction (CO2 / unit energy)

A shift to natural gas

Nuclear power

Renewables

Bio-products

Carbon capture and storage

Energy conservation and efficiency (energy / unit GDP)

Mass transportation

Road transport

Buildings

Low energy appliances

Doing things differently

Source: Asian Development Bank The Economics of Climate Change in SE Asia. 2009

Potential impacts on key sectors South-East Asia

Temperature Anomalies (relative to 1960-1990) Mediterranean Regions (10W-40E, 30N-50N)

Observations HadCM3

2003

The effects of a 4 degree temperature rise

2. Maize and wheat yields reduced by 40%. 3. Soybean yield could decrease 4. Rice yield down 30% 7. Sea levels rise by up to 80cm by 2100, much more later. Asia is key vulnerable region. 15. Tropical cyclones could be more intense and destructive 16. Hottest days of the year as much as 6 degrees warmer over eastern China
Source: Met Office

Exposure to Sea Level Rise by 2050

Exposure to flooding by 2030

. Almost one in five Chinese children under seven is overweight and more than seven percent are obese One in two US Hispanics born in 2000 will become diabetic. India 57 million diabetics by 2025

One big challenge..

21st Century challenges combined

Slide 47

Connecting the 21st Century challenges

Population water Disease
Uncertainty
& Insecurity

Density

Urbanisation food

Poverty energy

Nutrition

Inequality

Sanitation climate

Professor Mervyn King Head of the Global Reporting Initiative

I have little doubt that commentators in 2020 will look back on the decade of 2000 2010 and describe it as the decade of stupidity, because generally companies with knowledge of the crises faced by the planet carried on business as usual. They continued to take, make, waste, as if the planet had infinite natural assets and an infinite capacity to absorb waste. The decade of 2010 2020, I believe, will be known as the decade of change.

Slide 53

The significant challenges we face cannot be resolved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them.

Albert Einstein

THANK YOU
www.agulhas.co.uk catherine@agulhas.co.uk