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Relatrio final do grupo de trabalho criado pelo Despacho n 135/2012 do Secretrio de Estado do Ensino e da Administrao Escolar, publicado no Dirio da Repblica, 2. srie N. 5 6 de Janeiro de 2012, Ministrio da Educao e Cincia. 1
1 Introduo
Este documento que agora se apresenta serve de adenda ao relatrio final sobre o clculo de estimativas do custo por turma do ensino bsico (2 e 3 ciclos) e secundrio tendo em vista os contratos de associao com instituies do ensino privado. Como se disse no relatrio principal datado de 31 de agosto de 2012, a componente principal do custo o custo de docncia. Este custo, embora variando de unidade orgnica para unidade orgnica, ronda volta dos 85% do custo total, que envolve tambm os custos de manuteno e administrativos. Ora, aquando da elaborao do relatrio principal detinha-se o conhecimento de que os salrios dos docentes para o ano letivo de 2012/13 iriam, numa primeira fase, corresponder a 12 meses de vencimento. Numa segunda fase, teve-se conhecimento de que esse cenrio seria alterado, tendo-se tido conhecimento recentemente, numa terceira fase, que estes vencimentos corresponderiam a treze meses para o ano 2013. Esta alterao do cenrio configura uma mudana significativa nos nmeros finais do custo por turma. Assim, decidiu-se refazer os clculos, adaptando-os nova situao. Referindo-se ao relatrio principal, os novos clculos apenas provocam alteraes nas seces 3 e 4 desse relatrio. Assim, apenas se apresentam nesta adenda os resultados novos correspondentes. Naturalmente os custos finais por turma so algo acrescidos pelo facto de no se retirarem aos vencimentos os dois subsdios, mas apenas um.
2 Estimao dos modelos usando os dados ajustados ao corte salarial mais o subsdio
No caso das correes seco 3 deve apenas modificar-se os clculos da subseco 3.3 do relatrio principal. A seguir apresentam-se os quadros com os resultados ajustados que substituem, respetivamente, os de cada um dos modelos apresentados na seco 3.3 do relatrio principal. As interpretaes dadas anteriormente no se alteram.
Modelo 1
Dependent Variable: CUSTON Method: Least Squares Date: 10/25/12 Time: 22:27 Sample: 1 841 Included observations: 841 White heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors & covariance Variable C TBASICO TSECT R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) Coefficient 326132.1 79940.26 104624.3 0.897259 0.897014 455243.6 1.74E+14 -12148.87 3659.208 0.000000 Std. Error 43893.55 1767.156 1639.737 t-Statistic 7.430068 45.23667 63.80558 Prob. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 3183442. 1418580. 28.89861 28.91550 28.90509 1.635315
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
Modelo 2
Dependent Variable: CUSTON Method: Least Squares Date: 10/25/12 Time: 22:28 Sample: 1 841 Included observations: 841 White heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors & covariance Variable C TBASICO TSECREG TSECVOC R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) Coefficient 327535.3 79872.38 99077.06 115392.3 0.898226 0.897861 453365.8 1.72E+14 -12144.89 2462.375 0.000000 Std. Error 43716.01 1768.458 3445.119 6356.397 t-Statistic 7.492341 45.16499 28.75868 18.15373 Prob. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 3183442. 1418580. 28.89153 28.91405 28.90016 1.619595
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
Modelo 3
Dependent Variable: CUSTON Method: Least Squares Date: 10/25/12 Time: 22:31 Sample: 1 841 Included observations: 841 White heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors & covariance Variable C TBASICO TSECT ADULTOS R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) Coefficient 271786.6 79589.09 102361.9 175910.2 0.900572 0.900216 448110.1 1.68E+14 -12135.08 2527.057 0.000000 Std. Error 44627.38 1758.967 1692.233 31878.39 t-Statistic 6.090132 45.24764 60.48924 5.518165 Prob. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 3183442. 1418580. 28.86821 28.89073 28.87684 1.584299
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
Modelo 4
Dependent Variable: CUSTON Method: Least Squares Date: 10/25/12 Time: 22:28 Sample: 1 841 Included observations: 841 White heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors & covariance Variable C TBASICO TSECREG TSECVOC ADULTOS R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) Coefficient 275454.1 79550.19 97955.05 111225.3 167733.4 0.901205 0.900732 446948.7 1.67E+14 -12132.40 1906.494 0.000000 Std. Error 44586.54 1757.997 3310.104 6456.441 32408.75 t-Statistic 6.177965 45.25048 29.59274 17.22704 5.175559 Prob. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 3183442. 1418580. 28.86420 28.89235 28.87499 1.571749
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
Modelo 5
Dependent Variable: CUSTON Method: Least Squares Date: 10/25/12 Time: 22:31 Sample: 1 841 Included observations: 841 White heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors & covariance Variable C R1 R2 R3 TBASICO TSECT R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) Coefficient 181951.1 93536.20 291811.4 172930.3 80046.15 104585.7 0.901338 0.900747 446916.1 1.67E+14 -12131.83 1525.642 0.000000 Std. Error 47122.50 43702.41 43611.19 44837.81 1914.637 1652.612 t-Statistic 3.861235 2.140298 6.691205 3.856796 41.80748 63.28505 Prob. 0.0001 0.0326 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 3183442. 1418580. 28.86524 28.89902 28.87818 1.675153
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
Modelo 6
Dependent Variable: CUSTON Method: Least Squares Date: 10/25/12 Time: 22:32 Sample: 1 841 Included observations: 841 White heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors & covariance Variable C R1 R2 R3 TBASICO TSECREG TSECVOC R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) Coefficient 178827.1 106270.4 296112.9 194303.5 79698.05 98515.14 115993.7 0.902422 0.901720 444719.5 1.65E+14 -12127.19 1285.504 0.000000 Std. Error 47106.98 43890.95 44109.56 46177.52 1923.222 3465.660 6150.111 t-Statistic 3.796192 2.421237 6.713123 4.207752 41.43987 28.42608 18.86043 Prob. 0.0002 0.0157 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 3183442. 1418580. 28.85656 28.89597 28.87167 1.655880
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
Modelo 7
Dependent Variable: CUSTON Method: Least Squares Date: 10/25/12 Time: 22:32 Sample: 1 841 Included observations: 841 White heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors & covariance Variable C R1 R2 R3 TBASICO TSECT ADULTOS R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) Coefficient 99136.76 90197.28 319681.2 217636.4 79600.47 101810.8 213255.7 0.905984 0.905308 436526.3 1.59E+14 -12111.55 1339.479 0.000000 Std. Error 48212.06 42196.38 42386.89 43703.54 1887.812 1707.517 32330.27 t-Statistic 2.056265 2.137559 7.541983 4.979834 42.16547 59.62504 6.596162 Prob. 0.0401 0.0328 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 3183442. 1418580. 28.81937 28.85878 28.83448 1.632714
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
Modelo 8
Dependent Variable: CUSTON Method: Least Squares Date: 10/25/12 Time: 22:33 Sample: 1 841 Included observations: 841 White heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors & covariance Variable C R1 R2 R3 TBASICO TSECREG TSECVOC ADULTOS R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) Coefficient 99544.43 100750.5 322207.0 233546.4 79331.23 96936.39 111257.2 205614.7 0.906706 0.905923 435107.7 1.58E+14 -12108.30 1156.544 0.000000 Std. Error 48151.82 42434.22 42745.63 44729.58 1893.736 3305.877 6162.984 32604.82 t-Statistic 2.067304 2.374274 7.537776 5.221296 41.89138 29.32244 18.05249 6.306269 Prob. 0.0390 0.0178 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 3183442. 1418580. 28.81404 28.85908 28.83130 1.615170
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
Custo mdio por cada turma adicional na unidade orgnica obtido por regresso
Modelo 1 79.940
Modelo 2 79.872
Modelo 3 79.589
Modelo 4 79.550
Modelo 5 80.046
Modelo 6 79.698
Modelo 7 79.601
Modelo 8 79.331
104.624
102.362
104.586
101.811
99.077
97.955
98.515
96.936
115.392
111.225
115.994
111.257
Modelo 1 75.436
Modelo 2 75.372
Modelo 3 75.105
Modelo 4 75.068
Modelo 5 75.536
Modelo 6 75.208
Modelo 7 75.116
Modelo 8 74.861
98.729
96.595
98.693
96.075
93.495
92.436
92.964
91.474
108.890
104.958
109.459
104.988
Custo total
mdio
2.358.023.308