STATE OF OREGON

LEGISLATIVE REVENUE OFFICE

STATE CAPITOL BUILDING
900 COURT ST. NE RM 143
SALEM, OREGON 97301
PHONE (503) 986-1266
FAX (503) 986-1770
Paul Warner, Legislative Revenue Officer

LRO FORECAST SUMMARY

December 2012
NEW FACTS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST
3rd Qtr 2012
Forecast
Employment
Personal Income ($ billion)
Personal Income Tax ($ million)
Withholding
Other Payments less Refunds
Total
Corporate Income Tax

3rd Qtr 2012

Actuals

Difference

1,640,168

1,643,519

3,351

151.4

151.5

0.1

1,259.7
235.9
1,495.7

1,262.6
225.5
1,488.1

2.8
-10.4
-7.5

100.3

113.5

13.2

NEW FACTS
Third Quarter personal income tax collections were down $7.5 million (-0.5%) from
the September 2012 forecast.
Third Quarter corporate income tax collections were up $13.2 million (13.2%) from
the September 2012 forecast.
Oregon personal income was up $0.1 billion (0.07%) from the September 2012
forecast.
Oregon employment was up 3,351 jobs (0.2%) from the September 2012 forecast.

LRO: 11/20/2012

Forecast 1212.xlsx

Forecast Summary

Page 2 of 7

2011-13
CHANGE FROM CLOSE OF SESSION
($ Million)

General Fund Resources

Close of Session

December 2012
Forecast

Difference

Beginning Balance

0.0

0.0

0.0

Personal
Corporate
Other
Gross GF Revenue

12,193.6
894.2
944.2
14,032.0

11,974.8
855.9
1,130.4
13,961.1

-218.7
-38.4
186.2
-70.9

Shared Services Fund

Rainy Day Fund
Net GF Revenue

0.0
0.0
14,032.0

-12.0
0.0
13,949.1

-12.0
0.0
-82.9

1,131.0

1,078.6

-52.4

-23.1

-4.4

18.7

15,139.9

15,023.3

-116.6

Lottery Resources*
Anticipated Administrative Actions**
Net GF and Lottery Resources
* All lottery resources including dedicated funds.

** Administrative Actions equal expenses associated with cash flow management, exclusive of internal borrowing.

CHANGE SINCE CLOSE OF SESSION

Net personal income tax revenue is down $230.7 million (-1.9%) from the 2011
Close-of-Session estimate.
Net corporate income tax revenue is down $38.4 million (-4.3%) from the 2011
Close-of-Session estimate.
Net General Fund revenue is down $82.9 million (-0.6%) from the 2011
Close-of-Session estimate.
Net GF and Lottery resources are down $116.6 million (-0.8%) from the 2011
Close-of-Session estimate.

EFFECT ON 2% KICKER
($ Million)

Revenue Source
Personal & Other
Corporation

Close of Session
13,137.7
894.2

2% Kicker
Threshold

December 2012
Forecast

13,400.5
912.1

13,105.2
855.9

KICKER REFUNDS IMPLIED BY FORECAST

PERSONAL:

No personal kicker refund is projected for 2013.

CORPORATE: No corporate kicker refund is projected for 2013.

Amount +/Kicker Threshold

-295.3
-56.3

Forecast Summary

Page 3 of 7

2011-13
CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECAST
($ Million)

Combined Revenue

September 2012
Forecast

December 2012
Forecast

Difference

Beginning Balance

0.0

0.0

0.0

Personal
Corporate
Other
Gross GF Revenue

11,956.6
842.6
1,121.8
13,921.0

11,974.8
855.9
1,130.4
13,961.1

18.2
13.3
8.6
40.1

Shared Services Fund

Rainy Day Fund
Net GF Revenue

-2.3
0.0
13,918.7

-12.0
0.0
13,949.1

-9.7
0.0
30.4

1,078.5

1,078.6

0.1

-4.4

-4.4

0.0

14,992.8

15,023.3

30.5

Lottery Resources*
Anticipated Administrative Actions**
Net Combined Resources
* All lottery resources including dedicated funds.

** Administrative Actions equal expenses associated with cash flow management, exclusive of internal borrowing.

REVENUE CHANGES
Projected 2011-13 net General Fund revenue is up $30.4 million (0.2%) from the
September 2012 forecast.
Projected 2011-13 Lottery resources are up $0.1 million (0.01%) from the
September 2012 forecast.
Projected combined net General Fund and Lottery resources are up $30.5 million (0.2%)
from the September 2012 forecast.

Forecast Summary

Page 4 of 7

2011-13
EFFECT ON ENDING BALANCE
Current vs. Close of Session
($ Million)

General Fund

Close of Session

December 2012
Forecast

Difference

Beginning Balance
Revenue
Administrative Actions
Total Resources

0.0
14,032.0
-23.1
14,008.9

0.0
13,949.1
-4.4
13,944.7

0.0
-82.9
18.7
-64.2

Expenditures

13,562.6

13,723.8

161.2

446.3
135.6
310.6

220.9
137.2
83.7

-225.3
1.6
-226.9

Ending Balance
Rainy Day Fund Transfer
Remaining Balance

ENDING BALANCE
The projected ending balance is down $225.3 million (-50.5%) from the 2011 Close-ofSession estimate.
The projected ending balance is up $30.4 million from the September 2012 forecast.
The Rainy Day Fund is projected to receive $137.2 million following the 2011-13
biennium.

Current vs. Prior Forecast

($ Million)

General Fund

September 2012
Forecast

December 2012
Forecast

Difference

Beginning Balance
Revenue
Administrative Actions
Total Resources

0.0
13,918.7
-4.4
13,914.3

0.0
13,949.1
-4.4
13,944.7

0.0
30.4
0.0
30.4

Expenditures

13,723.8

13,723.8

0.0

190.5
137.2
53.3

220.9
137.2
83.7

30.4
0.0
30.4

Ending Balance
Rainy Day Fund Transfer
Remaining Balance

Forecast Summary

Page 5 of 7

2011-13
Reserve Fund Position
Education
Stability Fund *
Beginning
Balance
Deposits
Interest
Withdrawals
Projected Ending
Balance

Rainy Day
General Fund
Fund
($ Millions)

Reserves
Available

$5.1

$10.4

$0.0

$15.5

$184.1

$50.8

$234.9

$0.6

$0.6

$1.2

-$182.9

$0.0

-$182.9

$6.9

$61.8

$220.9

$289.6

*Excludes funds in the Oregon Growth and the Oregon Resource and Technology Development subaccounts.

2013-15
CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECAST
($ Million)

Combined Revenue

September 2012
Forecast

December 2012
Forecast

Difference

Personal
Corporate
Other
Gross GF Revenue

13,416.9
1,070.8
967.2
15,454.8

13,506.8
1,052.9
957.4
15,517.1

89.9
-17.9
-9.7
62.2

Shared Services Fund

Rainy Day Fund
Net GF Revenue

-4.5
-61.9
15,388.4

-56.2
-48.8
15,412.0

-51.7
13.1
23.6

53.3

83.7

30.4

-18.2

-18.2

0.0

15,423.5

15,477.5

54.0

1,049.9

1,050.8

0.9

16,473.4

16,528.3

54.9

Beginning Balance
Anticipated Administrative Actions**
Net General Fund Resources
Lottery Resources*
Net Combined Resources
* All lottery resources including dedicated funds.

** Administrative Actions equal expenses associated with cash flow management, exclusive of internal borrowing.

Forecast Summary

Page 6 of 7

2015-17
CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECAST
($ Million)

Combined Revenue

September 2012
Forecast

December 2012
Forecast

Difference

Personal
Corporate
Other
Gross GF Revenue

15,069.0
1,083.7
1,025.8
17,178.5

15,134.8
1,071.1
1,015.7
17,221.6

65.8
-12.6
-10.1
43.0

Shared Services Fund

Rainy Day Fund
Net GF Revenue

-4.5
-57.3
17,116.7

-75.7
-45.2
17,100.6

-71.2
12.1
-16.1

1,148.5

1,149.7

1.2

18,265.3

18,250.3

-14.9

Lottery Resources*
Net Combined Revenue

2017-19
CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECAST
($ Million)

Combined Revenue

September 2012
Forecast

December 2012
Forecast

Difference

Personal
Corporate
Other
Gross GF Revenue

16,638.4
1,056.6
1,096.6
18,791.6

16,642.5
1,036.0
1,083.2
18,761.6

4.1
-20.6
-13.5
-30.0

Shared Services Fund

Rainy Day Fund
Net GF Revenue

-4.5
-57.7
18,729.4

-83.3
-45.5
18,632.8

-78.8
12.2
-96.6

1,311.0

1,312.4

1.4

20,040.4

19,945.2

-95.2

Lottery Resources*
Net Combined Revenue

* All lottery resources including dedicated funds

Forecast Summary

Page 7 of 7

2019-21
CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECAST
($ Million)

Combined Revenue

September 2012
Forecast

December 2012
Forecast

Difference

Personal
Corporate
Other
Gross GF Revenue

18,405.7
1,081.7
1,184.4
20,671.8

18,406.9
1,050.3
1,167.4
20,624.6

1.2
-31.4
-17.0
-47.1

Shared Services Fund

Rainy Day Fund
Net GF Revenue

-4.5
-58.6
20,608.7

-90.8
-46.2
20,487.7

-86.3
12.4
-121.0

1,425.8

1,427.2

1.4

22,034.5

21,914.8

-119.6

Lottery Resources*
Net Combined Revenue

Biennial Net Revenue Growth: 1993 - 2021

1993-95 to 1995-97
1995-97 to 1997-99
1997-99 to 1999-01
1999-01 to 2001-03
2001-03 to 2003-05
2003-05 to 2005-07
2005-07 to 2007-09
2007-09 to 2009-11
2009-11 to 2011-13
2011-13 to 2013-15
2013-15 to 2015-17
2015-17 to 2017-19
2017-19 to 2019-21

Personal
17.1%
13.0%
22.6%
-11.9%
16.8%
22.8%
-8.6%
3.7%
14.3%
12.4%
12.0%
10.0%
10.6%

* All lottery resources including dedicated funds

Corporate
18.8%
-13.9%
28.2%
-44.4%
52.5%
31.7%
-18.9%
20.9%
3.4%
17.3%
2.2%
-3.5%
1.4%

Other
28.4%
-17.6%
2.8%
97.9%
-35.4%
6.4%
10.2%
29.8%
-7.8%
-15.3%
6.1%
6.6%
7.8%

Total
18.3%
7.7%
21.5%
-7.5%
11.4%
22.1%
-8.0%
6.8%
11.4%
10.5%
11.0%
9.0%
10.0%