April 18 Aryaduta Presentation

South Sulawesi, Indonesia Provincial Opinion Poll
January 12, 2012 - February 1, 2012
International Republican Institute Lembaga Survei Indonesia with funding from the United States Agency for International Development
1
Methodology
This survey was designed, analyzed and fielded by Lembaga Survei Indonesia under the supervision of Fallon Research and Communications on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The provincial representative survey was carried out from January 12-February 1, 2012. A sample of 720 South Sulawesi participants were interviewed face-to-face in their homes.
Multi-stage sampling was used to select villages from South Sulawesis 24 districts to be included in the sample.
The Kish grid method was used to randomize the selection within households among eligible respondents. The households were selected using the random route method. The sample was distributed at the district level, in rural and urban areas, in 24 districts of South Sulawesi. The response rate was 76 percent. The margin of error for the survey does not exceed +/- 3.7 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent. Fifty-two interviewers worked on the study, on average completing 10 interviews per PSU. The interviews were administered using local dialects and conducted by interviewers who are native speakers. The survey questions were asked in a different order than the order in which they are presented here. Due to rounding, charts may not add up to 100 percent.
IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia
South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012
Survey Demographics
Male 50% Female 50% Urban 31% Rural 69% Marital Status Married 87% Single 9% Widow/Widower 4% Education Less than or equal to primary Junior high or equivalent Senior high or equivalent College/University Age Younger than 24 24 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55+ 7% 24% 30% 18% 21%
50% 18% 24% 9%
Monthly Household Income Up to 400,000 rupiah 38% 400,000 to 999,999 rupiah 27% 1,000,000+ rupiah 35% Religion Islam 90% Christian 9% Other 2%
District of Respondents
SAMPLE VALIDATION
Demography of the Respondents
Demography of the Respondents
SOCIAL INDICATORS INDEX
Generally speaking, would you say that things in this province are headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
72
17
10
Right direction
Wrong direction
No response
Don't know
9
Why do you think that things in your province are heading in the right direction? (Closed-ended)
Respondents who think things are headed in the right direction, N=516
Government governs well/Assisting people 33
There is peace and security
26
The general environment is good or improving
23
Economic conditions are good
11
Other
No response/Don't know
0
10
20
30
40 10
Why do you think that things in your province are heading in the wrong direction?
Respondents who think things are headed in the wrong direction, N=70
The government is not governing well 25
Economic conditions are not good
17
Corruption
16
Limited job opportunities
12
Low standard of living
11
There is instability
Other
13
No response/Don't know 0
2 5 10 15 20 25 30 11
Compared to a year ago, has your personal financial situation improved, stayed the same or worsened?
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Improved Stayed the same Worsened No response/Don't know
12
44 35
20
Thinking about next year, do you expect the economic situation in your household is going to get better, stay the same or get worse?
No response/Don't know 13% Worse 6%
Better 46%
Stay the same 35%
13
ELECTION INDEX
14
Did you vote in the April 2009 provincial parliamentary elections?

No 9% No response/Don't know 1%
Yes 90%
IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012
15
Which one of the following statements most determines for whom you vote?
I usually don't vote the same political party or I usually don't vote forfor the same political party or political group vote depends upon various political group and myand my vote depends upon other factors various other factors 31
I usually vote for the same political party
22
I usually vote votethe samesame candidate orlocal I usually for for the candidate or his his political group political group local
20
Other
11
No response
Don't know
14
0
10
20
30
40 16
People give different reasons for why they vote for one party rather than another. Which of the following describes your reason for voting for a particular party instead of another party?
The party has the best leader The party's candidate has been working in my The party's candidate has been working in my constituency constituency The party provides assistance 17 21
21
The party has the best policies
16
The party had the best candidate in my constituency
Other
No response
Don't know 0
10 5 10 15 20 25 17
Which of the following criteria or characteristics are the most important to you when selecting a legislative candidate to vote for ? (First priority)
Responses two percent and greater
Honesty Close to people Religious Opposed to corruption The support he/she has from the public Experience as a leader Intelligence Proposed policies Charisma No response/Don't know 0
46 12 12 5 5 4 3 2 2 4 10 20 30 40 50 18
I am going to ask for your level of agreement or disagreement with the following statement. I would be more likely to vote for a political party which includes more young people in their political party.
64% Agree 24% Disagree
59
23
12
20
Strongly agree Agree
40
Disagree
60
Strongly disagree
80
100
19
I am going to ask for your level of agreement or disagreement with the following statement. I would be more likely to vote for a political party that nominates more women legislative candidates.
48% Agree 41% Disagree
45
38
12
10
Strongly agree
20
Agree
30
40
Disagree
50
60
70
80
90
100
Strongly disagree
20
If there are two candidates campaigning for the same elected office with exactly the same qualifications, but one is a man and the other is a woman, which one would you be more likely to vote for?
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Prefer to vote for a Prefer to vote for a woman man
49 39
9 4 Gender makes no difference to me No response/Don't know

21
If provincial parliamentary elections were held next week, how likely is it that you will vote?
70
61
60 50 40 30 20 10
1 2 Not vote at all 3 No response/Don't know
22
35
0
Very likely
Somewhat likely
Not very likely
Undecided Voter Profile 35% out of 720 respondents

Analysis shows that voters who do not know which party they support to be:
Female Even split in rural/urban residents Less than or equal to primary education level From households with gross monthly income less than 400,000 rupiah Even spilt among age groups
23
ISSUES AND ATTITUDES INDEX
24
Which one of the following issues is of greatest concern to you?

Only displaying responses of two percent and greater
Inflation and price increases Lack of infrastructure (electricity, roads, etc.) Insufficent support to farmers Low standard of living and low income Not a sufficient level of support to small business Unemployment and threat of losing job Corruption Quality and accessibility of education Solution to housing problems Low quality and high prices of health care Increase in level of crime Problems of water supply No response/Don't know 0
26 14 11 8 8 7 6 4 2 2 2 2 8 5 10 15 20 25 30 25
On the issue most important to you, do you feel that the provincial government is capable of solving the problem within the next two years ?
No response/Don't know 31% Yes 45%
No 24%
26
If you could improve one service or policy in your area, what would it be? (Open-ended)
Only displaying responses of two percent and greater
Infrastructure (roads, electricity, bridges) Water drainage Agriculture (fertilizer, irrigation) Availabilty of clean water Environment and sanitation Employment Decrease price of basic needs Security Housing Flooding Economy No response/Don't know 0
41 9 8 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 9 10 20 30 40 50 27
In your opinion, how prevalent is corruption within the government in your province?
17
23
15
34
20
Very prevalent Not prevalent at all
40
60
80
Not very prevalent Don't know
100
Somewhat prevalent No response
28
Are you satisfied or unsatisfied with the provincial governments efforts to fight corruption?
26% Satisfied 47% Unsatisfied
24
38
25
20
Very satisfied Very unsatisfied
40
60
80
Somewhat unsatisfied Don't know
100
Somewhat satisfied No response
29
In your opinion, what is the most corrupt institution in the province? (Open-ended)
Parliament/Local parliament
7
Local government
Legal institutions
Tax office
Ministry of Education and Culture
Ministry of Public Works
70
20
40
60
80 30
Turning to a different topic, in the past year has any legislator or political party member contacted you about any issue of importance to you?
No response/Don't know 2% Yes 7%
No 91%
31
Has your representative in the DPRD ever tried to contact you?

94 75 78
3
June-08
5
January-09
6
July-09
Yes
No
32
In the future, should a legislator or political party member need to contact you, what is the most convenient way for you to be contacted?
In person/Travel to my house Through a community/Public event Telephone Through a non-governmental organization Through a political party event In person/Travel to my office Media (e.g. newspaper) SMS Letter Radio program No response/Don't know 0
54 40 9 8 7 6 3 2 2 2 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 33
Have you ever given money to a political party?

120 100 80 60 40 20 3 0 Yes
96
2 No No response/Don't know
34
If no, why have you not given money to a political party?

Respondents indicating that they have not given money to a political party, N=699 Responses two percent and greater
No funds available to give Have other necessities Never been asked, but if asked I will contribute Not interested in politcs Not a political party member The political party's funding is its business ItIt is not appropriate to give money to political is not appropriate to give money to politicsal parties parties Political parties have too much money No response/Don't know 0
54 40 9 8 7 6 6 3 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 35
In your opinion, are people in your province afraid to openly express their political views or not?
17
37
18
20
10
20
30
Many are afraid
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Majority are afraid

Some are afraid
Nobody is afraid
36
What is your opinion about the trend of religious extremism in your province compared to two years ago? Has it increased, stayed more or less the same or decreased?
14
32
24
30
10 Increased
20
30
40
50
60 Decreased
70
80
90
100
More or less the same
37
How concerned, if at all, are you about the rise of religious extremism in your province these days?
Respondents having the opinion that the trend of religious extremism in the province has increased, N=99
27
34
27
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Very concerned
Somewhat concerned
Not too concerned
Not at all concerned
38
INSTITUTIONAL RATINGS
39
Now I am going to read various problems, and please rate the provincial governments performance on each of the issues listed below.
Health care Improving the educational system Availability of electricity Gender/Religious/Race/Ethnicity-based discrimination Construction of public facilities schools, bridges, etc. Water quality Water availability Preserving the environment Development of roads and highways Fighting crime Housing Poverty reduction Employment Inflation control Fighting corruption 23 35 32 31 23 41 26 32 47 29 51 20 52 61 59 57 16 23 17 30 27 25 25 63 14 15 21 19 16 23 9 10 6 73 72 71 67 15 18 12 9 13 10 11 15 3 17 18 7 8 15 15 6 13 15 6 7 5 7 4
0 Good
20 Poor
40
60
80
100
Fair
40
I would like to ask you about your impressions on the performance of the following institutions. How would you rate the performance of each of the following institutions: very good, good, fair, poor or very poor?
Religious leaders Governor Media Civil service employees Police Local parliament Local election commission Domestic non-governmental organizations Provincial parliament Courts Political parties International non-governmental organizations 43 42 40 37 34 29 25 18 22 47 2 19 24 10 13 54 60 58 55 25 22 3 8 6 39 31 34 29 67 17 20 22 9 81 16 3 7 13 22 31 3 11 1 13 20 15 10 8
0 Good
20 Poor
40
60
80
100
Fair
41
Are you satisfied or unsatisfied with the quality of work provided by the provincial legislature?
45
27
3 2
22
20
40
60
80
100
42
Are you satisfied or unsatisfied with the quality of work provided by the district head in your city/village?
62
24
11
20
40
60
80
100
43
Are you satisfied or unsatisfied with the quality of work provided by the governor of your province?
64
18
11
11
20
40
60
80
100
44
MEDIA INDEX
45
What are the main sources of political information for you?

Only displaying responses of one percent and greater
TV Relatives, friends Newspapers Village head Village news board Radio Religious leader Internet No response/Don't know 0
61 6 3 3 2 1 1
1 21 20 40 60 80 46
How do you rate the credibility of each of these information sources on a scale of one to five, where one means very unreliable and five means very credible?
Responses of three or higher only
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
84 82 81 76 71 61 55 41 33 31
47
On average, how often do you use the Internet?

Everyday 4
A few times per week
Once a week
Once a month
Less often
Never
76
8 20 40 60 80 48
What do you use the Internet for mostly?

Respondents indicating that they use the Internet at least once a month, N=117
Chat Work Email Facebook Games Listen to music Research Blog Watch videos Shopping Learning Looking for work No response/Don't know 0
30 24 21 14 12 11 6 4 2 2 2 1 1 10 20 30 40 49
Where do you most regularly access the Internet?

Respondents indicating that they use the Internet at least once a month, N=117
Internet caf
31
Home
28
Cell phone or mobile connection
27
Work
Relatives' or friends' home
School
4 10 20 30 40 50
South Sulawesi, Indonesia Provincial Opinion Poll

January 12, 2012 - February 1, 2012
International Republican Institute Lembaga Survei Indonesia with funding from the United States Agency for International Development
51

April 18 Aryaduta Presentation

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South Sulawesi, Indonesia Provincial Opinion Poll

January 12, 2012 - February 1, 2012

IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

50% 18% 24% 9%

IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

Demography of the Respondents

IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

Demography of the Respondents

IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

SOCIAL INDICATORS INDEX

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

There is peace and security

The general environment is good or improving

Economic conditions are good

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

Economic conditions are not good

Limited job opportunities

Low standard of living

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

Stay the same 35%

IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

Did you vote in the April 2009 provincial parliamentary elections?

I usually vote for the same political party

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

The party has the best policies

The party had the best candidate in my constituency

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

9 4 Gender makes no difference to me No response/Don't know

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

Not very likely

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

Undecided Voter Profile 35% out of 720 respondents

ISSUES AND ATTITUDES INDEX

Which one of the following issues is of greatest concern to you?

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

No response/Don't know 31% Yes 45%

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

Somewhat prevalent No response

IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

Somewhat satisfied No response

IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

Ministry of Education and Culture

Ministry of Public Works

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

Has your representative in the DPRD ever tried to contact you?

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012

South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey, January 2012