Erste Group: Recommendation List

Recommendation List
International Stocks – January 30, 2009

New recommendations:
Goldcorp
Cancelled:
Bombardier
Sanyo Electric
Erste Group Research - Recommendation List January 30, 2009 Seite 1

Core Investments - Musterdepots
Core-Investments - Modelportfolios
since 01.01.03 since 01.01.09 since 01.01.03 since 01.01.09
S&P 500 € - 22.93% -0.55% Portfolio € 61.78% 4.07%
North Amer ica S&P 500 $ -3.94% -6.43% Portfolio $ 109.83% - 3.20%
Pur chas e Purc has e Cur r ent Pe r f. Outpe r f. Pe r f.
Se cur it y ISIN Count ry Sec tor Date Pr ice Pr ice Eur o loca l loca l
AGNICO-EAGLE M INES CA00 847 4108 5 CN Gold-Mining 25/01/20 08 61 .0 0 6 5.77 0 .1 1% 45.31 % 7.82 %
GOLDCORP INC CA38 095 6409 7 CN Gold-Mining 30/01/20 09 36 .1 1 3 6.11 0 .0 0% 0 .0 0% 0.00 %
JOHNSON & J OHNSON US4781 601 046 US Hea lth care 14/09/20 07 63 .1 1 5 8.28 - 1.8 5% 35.39 % -7.65 %
BOMBARDIER INC 'B' CA09 775 1200 7 CN Indus tr ial 30/03/20 07 4.65 4.05 -15.49 % 27.69 % - 12.90%
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY US0846 702 076 US Rei nsura nce /Hold ing 16/05/20 08 40 65.00 29 00.00 -15.57 % 11.97 % - 28.66%
ORAC LE C ORP. US6838 9X105 4 US Softw a re 21/09/20 07 21 .0 4 1 7.59 -10.15 % 27.96 % - 16.40%

STOXX € 1.50% -6.13% Portfolio € 54.01% - 0.52%
Europe
SOLARWORLD AG DE0005 108 401 DE Ener gy, A lte rnative 11/05/20 07 27 .9 1 1 6.47 -40.98 % 9 .8 1% - 40.98%
VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS DK0010 268 606 DK Ener gy, A lte rnative 09/01/20 09 334.50 289 .50 -13.45 % -13.51 % - 13.45%
RWE AG DE00 070 3712 9 DE Utility 17/01/20 08 93 .0 5 6 1.09 -34.35 % 10.34 % - 34.35%
GAM ESA ES0143 416 115 SP Indus tr ial 18/11/20 05 11 .9 8 1 2.90 7 .6 8% 41.27 % 7.68 %
ROCHE HOLDING GEN. CH0012 032 048 CH Me dica l Dru gs 17/01/20 08 201.60 160 .30 -15.06 % 24.20 % - 20.49%

MSCI Far East € 19.04% 0.22% Portfolio € 50.86% 0.33%
Asia MS CI Far East (Lo) 11.25% -4.21% Port folio(Lo) 99.40% - 5.25%

ZIJIN M INING GROUP CNE100 000 502 HK Gold-Mining 11/04/20 08 7.94 3.87 -41.15 % - 4.5 9% - 51.26%
LIHIR GOLD PG0008 974 597 AU Gold-Mining 10/10/20 08 2.49 2.96 18.17% 31.01 % 1 8.88%
NEWC REST MINING AU00 0000 NCM7 AU Gold-Mining 11/10/20 08 25 .6 4 3 0.40 17.86% 30.70 % 1 8.56%
CHINA M OBILE LTD HK0941 009 539 HK Commun ication s 05/09/20 03 21 .3 0 7 0.00 17 6.42% 21 0.88% 228 .6 4%
CHINA C ONSTR. BA NK CNE100 000 2H1 HK Fin anc ial 30/11/20 07 30 21.00 3.91 -40.65 % 6 .3 5% - 47.73%
INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES INE0 09A0 1021 IN Softw a re 22/02/20 08 15 80.10 13 09.65 -24.23 % 16.22 % - 17.12%
PTT PLC TH0646 010 007 TH Oil In te grated 22/02/20 08 328.00 159 .00 -49.02 % -107 0.3 9% - 51.52%
Austria ATX € 48.10% -2.72% Portfolio € 352.47% 6.88%
Pur chas e Purc has e Cur r ent Outpe r f. Pe r f.

Se cur it y ISIN Count ry Sec tor Date Pr ice Pr ice loca l loca l
ÖSTERR. POST A G AT0000 APOST4 AS Trans port 29/06/20 07 32 .5 0 2 4.40 39.92 % - 24.92%
CA IMM O INTERNATIONAL A TCAIMMOINT5 AS Real Estate 25/09/20 08 4.70 4.68 5 .7 8% - 39.36%
ZUM TOBEL A G AT0000 837 307 AS Indus tr ial 08/04/20 08 17 .3 2 6.22 - 7.0 7% - 64.09%
VIENNA INSURA NCE GROUP AT0000 908 504 AS Fin anc ial 26/05/20 06 46 .6 0 2 4.25 7 .2 5% - 47.96%
INTERCELL AG AT0000 612 601 AS Co nsumer, n on-c yclic al 06/04/20 05 5.73 2 4.82 37 0.21% 333 .1 6%
EVN AG AT0000 741 053 AS Utilities 06/01/20 06 18 .1 8 1 1.90 20.33 % - 34.53%
RHI AT0000 676 903 AS Indus tr ial 10/03/20 08 27 .0 1 1 2.35 - 0.6 7% - 54.28%
ANDRITZ AT0000 730 007 AS Indus tr ial 23/10/20 08 18 .8 0 2 2.64 26.75 % 2 0.43%
VERBUND AT0000 746 409 AS Utility 18/08/20 08 47 .4 8 3 0.00 14.74 % - 36.82%
OMV A G AT0000 743 059 AS Oil & Gas 24/01/20 08 43 .6 0 2 1.21 2 .4 3% - 51.35%
KA PSC H TRAFFIC COM A T00 0KAPSCH9 AS Traffi c Mana geme nt 13/02/20 08 27 .3 3 1 5.50 1 .5 0% 1.80 %

USA - Core Investments
Bombardier Inc 'B'
Bom bar dier Inc. 'B'
9 .0
8 .0
Can cellati on: Due to w eakening demand in the aviation 7.0
s egment the c ompany s how s signs of economic deterioration. 6 .0
We cannot see a pos itive change soon and t heref ore cancel 5.0
t he s toc k f rom our rec ommendation list . 4 .0

3 .0
01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 0804/ 08 05/ 0806/ 08 07/ 08 08/ 0809/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
BOMB ARDIER ' B' MA V60 M AV 30
Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth

M a rket C ap 7,116.50 R et urn o n E q uit y 11.13
B et a 1.19 O pera ti ng M argin 4.80
5 2- We ek- H igh 8.97 D ebt R at i o 58.49
5 2- We ek- Lo w 3.17 D ivid end Y iel d 2.23
P E c urrent Y e ar 6.43 E arni ngs G ro wth cu rre nt year 41.67
P E G R at io 0.17 E arni ngs G ro wth ne xt yea r 250.63
P rice / Bo o k R at io 2.80 H ist o rica l E a rn ing s G ro wt h 41.09
P rice / S ales R at io 0.29 H ist o rica l S a les Gro wt h 0.48
Johnson & Johnson

Johnson & Johnson
74
71
68
The c ompany is the top healthcare company w orld-
65
w ide. Even if it is already a large corporation it has 62
alw ay s been able t o f ind grow th opportunities und to 59
56
increase its prof itability. The PE ratio is low (14), especially 53
regarding t he high quality of the balance 50
sheet . 01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 08 04/ 08 05/ 08 06/ 08 07/ 08 08/ 08 09/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
JOHNSON & JOHNS ON MA V60 MA V 30

Agnico-Eagle Mines
80
Agnico Eag le Mines
Agnico-Eagle Mines is a prof itable Canadian gold minining company
70
w ith revenues already ex ceeding CAD 400 million per year. The 60
c ompany has a solid balance s heet and in an environment of rising
50
gold pric es probably w ill generat e increasing prof its in the next
40
y ears.
30
20
01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 08 04/ 0805/ 08 06/ 08 07/ 08 08/ 0809/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
A GNI CO-EA GLE MINES MA V60 M AV 30

P E c urrent Y e ar 97.24 E arni ngs G ro wth cu rre nt year -25.00
P E G R at io 4.11 E arni ngs G ro wth ne xt yea r -36.25

USA - Core Investments
Goldcorp Inc
Goldcor p
New Recom mendation: Goldcorp is a North American gold 48
producer that has been able to increase its s ales subs tancially
w ithin the last years. Due t o a f avourable inc rease of t he gold 38
price during the las t years the company also s how s st able
28
cash f low s. Goldc orp als o has a solid balance s heet w ith an
equity ratio of nearly 74%. 18
01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 08 04/ 08 05/ 08 06/ 08 07/ 08 08/ 0809/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
Goldc orp MA V60 M AV 30
Market Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth

M arke t Cap 26,339.87 Re tu rn o n E quit y 3.62
B et a 0.83 Op erat ing M argi n 27.75
52 -W eek- H igh 52.48 De bt Rat io 7.35
52 -W eek- Lo w 17.77 Div idend Y ield 0.62
P E current Y ear 45.69 E arnings Gro wt h current year - 42.39
P E G R at io 6.45 E arnings Gro wt h next ye ar - 20.92
P rice/ B oo k Rat io 1.52 His to rica l E arning s Gro wt h 8.67
P rice/ S ales Rat io 8.34 His to rica l S ales Gro wt h 24.46
Berkshire Hathaway Inc B

Ber kshire Hathaw ay -B
5,000
Berkshire Hathaw ay is a holding company w ith t he main focus on 4,500
the reins urance business. Due to ef ficient management by the 4,000
invest ment tycoons Warren Buff ett and Charles Munger it has a 3,500
mult i-decade long success ful enterprise hist ory. The stock can be 3,000
us ed as a strategic part of an equity portf olio. Berkshire 2,500
Hathaw ay appears very attrac tive f or above average returns. 01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 0804/ 08 05/ 0806/ 0807/ 0808/ 0809/ 0810/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 0801/ 09
BERK SHIREHATHAWA Y' B' MA V60 M AV 30

52 -W eek- H igh 147,000.00 De bt Rat io 21.51
52 -W eek- Lo w 74,100.00 Div idend Y ield n.a.
P E current Y ear 15.71 E arnings Gro wt h current year 19.65
P E G R at io E arnings Gro wt h next ye ar -31.71
Oracle
Or acle
23
Oracle is a leading softw are company w orldw ide.
With new products they are successf ul in ex panding 20
sales and earnings. Cash Flow s also are solid and
chanc es are good t hat Oracle can c ontinue above 17
average grow th f or an extended period of time.

14
01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 08 04/ 08 05/ 08 06/ 08 07/ 0808/ 08 09/ 0810/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
ORA CLE MAV 30 M AV60

P E G R at io 1.00 E arnings Gro wt h next ye ar 46.04

Europa - Core Investments
RWE AG
RWE is one of Germany's top elect ricity s uppliers. It also ow ns
RWE
major UK-based utilities and domestic elec tric ity and gas supplier 105
100
RWE npow er, as w ell as operating div isions all over Europe. 95
90
85
Furt her RWE is reducing it's large overall CO2 exposure by 80
75
inves ting in new and exis ting Nuclear and alternative Energy 70
65
plant s. Buy. 60
55
50
01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 08 04/ 0805/ 08 06/ 08 07/ 0808/ 08 09/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
RWE MA V60 MA V30

P rice / S ales R at io 0.77 H ist o rica l S a les Gro wt h -1.15
GAMESA S.A.
The Spanish manuf ac turer Gamesa is t he market leader in Gam esa
Spain and is pos itioned among t he most important w ind 37
34
generat or manuf acturers in the w orld w it h a market share 31
28
in 2007 upper 15% . Gamesa has its main produc t lines in 25
22
20 countries s pread out ov er f our continents . Good long 19
16
term potential. Buy. 13
10
01/ 08 02/ 0803/ 08 04/ 08 05/ 08 06/ 08 07/ 08 08/ 08 09/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
GA MESA CORPN.TEGC. MAV 30 MA V60

P E G R at io 0.73 E arni ngs G ro wth ne xt yea r n.a.
Vestas Wind Systems

The Danish Vestas Wind Syst ems A/S is present in 63 count ries Vestas Wind System s
and w it h a market share of 23% f or years t he w orlds larges t
producer of w indturbines. The company has a solid order bac klog 520
f rom Europe (62%) and t he grow th markets Americas (24% ) and

320
As ia (14%). Due to the over proport ional share price drop las t
year and the good grow th out look in t he w ind indus try the s tock
120
has recovery and high long term potential. Buy. 01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 08 04/ 08 05/ 08 06/ 0807/ 08 08/ 0809/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
Vest as MA V60 MA V30

P E G R at io 0.45 E arni ngs G ro wth ne xt yea r n.a.
P rice / Bo o k R at io 4.26 H ist o rica l E a rn ing s G ro wt h n.a.

Europa - Core Investments
Solarworld AG
Due t o the increased oil prices and enhanced environmental Solar w or ld
50
aw arenes s chanc es aris e f or c ompanies of the alternat ive 45
energy-sector. Solarw orld w ill be able to boost its earnings the 40
35
nex t years. As Solarw orld is one of the leaders in the indus try of 30
integrat ed s olarcompanies w e rec ommend buy ing the st ock. 25
20
15
10
01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 0804/ 08 05/ 0806/ 08 07/ 0808/ 08 09/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 0812/ 08 01/ 09
SOLARWORLD MA V 30 M AV60

P E c urrent Y e ar E arni ngs G ro wth cu rre nt year -16.81
Roche Holding AG
In this dif f icult ec onomic environment f or c yclic al companies, a Roche
def ens ive value such as the Sw iss pharmaceutic al giant is an 215
at tract ive inves tment. The core business is the product ion of 200
quality drugs in a higher price segment f or hospitals, w here the
185
f irm enjoys a solid pipeline. Through acquis itions , Roc he is als o
170
in a good position in it s medical technique division. We s elect
the st ock f or our rec ommendation lis t. 155
140
01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 0804/ 08 05/ 0806/ 08 07/ 0808/ 08 09/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
ROCHE HOLDI NG MA V60 M AV 30


Asien - Core Investments
NEWCREST MINING
Ne w cr est Minin g
Aus tralia's largest gold mine operator quadrupled it's last half -year 40
res ults, production rose las t year by 10% to 1.75 million ounc es.
30
New cres t has gold reserves amounting to 40 million ounc es. The
v aluation per oz is considerably cheaper than the industry average. 20
Af ter t he bitt er losses w ithin the previous w eeks , the stock is now
v alued v ery favorably . 10
01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 08 04/ 08 05/ 08 06/ 08 07/ 08 08/ 08 09/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08
M AV6 0 MA V 3 0

SANYO ELECTRIC
Cancell ation: Sanyo Electr ic
280
260
The company w ill be acquired by Panasonic Corp f or 140 240
Yen/s hare. We do not expect an increase f or this of f er 220
and theref ore cancel the stock f rom our recommendation list. 200
180
160
140
120
01/ 08 02/ 0803/ 08 04/ 08 05/ 0806/ 08 07/ 08 08/ 0809/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
S A NYOELECTRI C MA V 30 M AV60

P E c urrent Y e ar 34.37 E arni ngs G ro wth cu rre nt year n.a.
P E G R at io E arni ngs G ro wth ne xt yea r -271.31
P rice / S ales R at io 0.13 H ist o rica l S a les Gro wt h -1.45
CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK

China Construction Bank
9
CCB is our top-pic k w ithin t he Chinese banking sec tor. In our 8
view , CCB should be a key benef ic iary of the rising rat e 7
cyc le. Grow th, valuation as w ell as margins are more 6
attractive t han the Peer Group. CCB ist c urrently evaluating 5
takeov er-targets w orldw ide, the trough-train program (DII 4
and QDII) f rom mainland China should also support the CCB's 3
stock. 2
01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 08 04/ 08 05/ 08 06/ 08 07/ 08 08/ 08 09/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
CHINA CON.B ANK ' H' MA V30 M AV60


CHINA MOBILE
China Mobile
160
China Mobile is the lead ing f orce in the w orld’s b igg est mobile 150
140
pho ne marke t. The company, through its subsidia ries, p ro vide s
130
cellulartelecommu nica tion servic es in the People's Republic of 120
110
China. It has a solid b alan ce she et an d is expec ted to show
100
strong grow th rates in the c oming y ears. We recommend China 90
80
Mobile as a Buy. 70
60
50
01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 08 04/ 08 05/ 08 06/ 08 07/ 08 08/ 08 09/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
CH IN A MOB ILE MA V30 MA V60

M arke t Cap 1,413,834.00 Re tu rn o n E quit y 25.14
Lihir Gold
Lihir Gold
5
The w ell estab lis hed g old p ro duce r, based in Papua Ne w
Gu inea , has re cently ann ounc ed the acquisit ion of Equigold . 4
The company now has 3.4 million ou nces o f addition al
resource s. Prod uctio n is sche dule d f or 2008 at 90 0,000
3
ounc es of g old, at cas h cost s of USD 360 per oun ce. 20 09 a
produc tion of 1.28 million o unces at ca sh cos ts of $ 357 pe r
2
oz e xpecte d. Conc lusion: L ihir should be exten ded f rom the
current f alling en ergy an d commodity price s and by the
1
sharp rise in gold prices ab ove b enef it . 01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 08 04/ 08 05/ 08 06/ 08 07/ 08 08/ 08 09/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
Li hir Gol d MAV 30 MAV60

M arke t Cap 6,849.03 Re tu rn o n E quit y -1.62
P E current Y ear E arnings Gro wt h current year n.a.
P E G R at io 1.37 E arnings Gro wt h next ye ar -871.43
P rice/ B oo k Rat io 1.76 His to rica l E arning s Gro wt h n.a.
P rice/ S ales Rat io 6.96 His to rica l S ales Gro wt h n.a.
INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES LTD

I nfos ys Te chnologie s Ltd.
The Indian IT service p ro vide r is on e of the bigg est
2, 200
bene ficia ries o f glob alizatio n. In the p ast qu arter, turno ver
2, 000
exce eded the USD 1 b illion ma rk f or the f irs t time, EBIT-
1, 800
ma rg in increas ed to 28.8 %. For the current f is cal year, the
1, 600
company expe cts ne arly 3 0% of prof it and s ales grow th,
1, 400
due to the current reco rd backlo g certainly a realistic
1, 200
expe ctation. A f ter the re cent p rice d eclines, w e see the
1, 000
stoc k no w at an attractive en try-leve l. 01/ 08 02/ 0803/ 0804/ 0805/ 0806/ 0807/ 0808/ 0809/ 0810/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
I NFOS YS TECH NOLOGI ES MAV 30 MA V60

52 -W eek- H igh 2,046.50 De bt Rat io 0.00
52 -W eek- Lo w 1,040.00 Div idend Y ield 2.12
P rice/ S ales Rat io 4.47 Hist o rical S ales G ro wth 33.57

PTT PCL
PTT
420
The Thai oil and g as compa ny ben ef its f rom high oil prices, 380
340
strong g as de man d as w e ll as significantly higher c ontract
300
status in the pe tro chemica ls d ivision . The quality o f PTT's 260
220
bala nce s heet is ou tstand ing, due to the PE-ra tio o f 10x, a 180
dividend yie ld o f 3 .6 %and hig h prof ita bility w e see sign if ica nt 140
01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 08 04/ 08 05/ 08 06/ 08 07/ 08 08/ 08 09/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08
upside po tential.
P TT MAV 30 MA V60

P E G R at io 1.77 E arnings Gro wt h next ye ar - 28.28
ZIJIN MINING
Du e to a aggres sive expan sion strateg y, China's large st Zijin Mi ni ng
11
gold company advan ced to the f ou rt h large st gold
produce r w o rldw ide. Th e compan y is characte rized by
low mining c osts a nd a p ro misin g exploration pipeline. 6
Valuation an d grow th prospec ts are f av ourable

compared to the p eergroup, the planne d A -s hare listing in 1
Sh angha i sh ould supp ort the s tock price . 01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 08 04/ 08 05/ 08 06/ 08 07/ 08 08/ 08 09/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08
ZI JI N MI NI NG GROUP 'H' MA V30 MAV60


Österreich – Xetra Core Investments
EVN
The earnings development of EVN is robus t due to its geographic al
EVN
expans ion into Central and East ern Europe. Apart f rom the geogra- 24
phical divers if ication and the mult i-utility approach (w ater and 22
20
w as te), w e like the 12.5% stake in Verbund, w hic h contributes 18
enormously t o the value of t he EVN stock. Including the c ompanies 16
14
consolidated at-equity, w hich have been recogniz ed at 1.0x book 12
value, this is another enhancement f or the value of the stock. The 10
01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 08 04/ 08 05/ 08 06/ 0807/ 08 08/ 0809/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
company 's c ommunicat ion polic y and t he s toc k's low liquidity are
some kind of burden, unfortunately. Our recommendat ion: Buy , EVN MA V 30 MA V60
target price: EUR 18.9.

M a rket C ap 1,950.86 R et urn o n E q uit y 6.8%
B et a 0.61 O pera ti ng M argin 6.8%
5 2- We ek- H igh 23.07 D ebt R at i o 50.4%
5 2- We ek- Lo w 10.00 D ivid end Y iel d 3.4%
P E c urrent Y e ar 9.71 E arni ngs G ro wth cu rre nt year 7.2%
P E G R at io -- E arni ngs G ro wth ne xt yea r 22.1%
P rice / Bo o k R at io 0.67 H ist o rica l E a rn ing s G ro wt h -3.3%
P rice / S ales R at io 0.72 H ist o rica l S a les Gro wt h 8.9%
Vienna Insurance Group

Austria’s largest insurance company sets great st ore by the Vienna Insur anc Gr oup
expans ion into CEE. More than one-third of the premium volume is 60
55
already being earned in the region. In Romania, the c ompany is 50
45
number one, and in the Cz ech Republic, Slov akia and Bulgaria it 40
35
ranks s econd in the market. The company has a total of 20 million 30
25
cus tomers in 20 c ountries . The GDP of the CEE region is low er GDP 20
15
in c omparison to Wes tern Europe and t he region has an enormous 10
01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 08 04/ 0805/ 08 06/ 08 07/ 0808/ 08 09/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
grow th potent ial w ith respect to insurance density. The stoc k
currently suf f ers f rom the w eak sentiment tow ards CEE. Our target VI ENNA I NS URA NCEGROUP A MA V30 MA V60
pric e: EUR 44.
B et a 0.90 O pera ti ng M argin --
5 2- We ek- H igh 59.00 D ebt R at i o --
P rice / Bo o k R at io 0.78 H ist o rica l E a rn ing s G ro wt h 9.7%
P rice / S ales R at io n.m. H ist o rica l S a les Gro wt h --
Intercell
Interc ell is the f irst biotec h c ompany list ed on Wiener Börs e
specialized in the development of therapeutic and prophy lac tic 36
I ntercell
vaccines. The v acc ine market off ers ex cellent grow th pers pec - 33
30
tives . The main development projects are a prophy lac tic vac cine 27
against Japanese enc ephalitis (in the phase of market approval 24
21
currently) and a therapeutic com-pound against hepatitis C. The 18
company has a lot more projects in the pipeline and projec ts in the 15
01/ 08 02/ 0803/ 08 04/ 08 05/ 08 06/ 08 07/ 08 08/ 08 09/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
clinical t esting phase w ith cooperation partners (esp.
Nov artis/Merck). Our t arget price: EUR 39,5. I NTERCELL MA V 30 M AV60


RHI
RHI is a global play er and has a w orldw ide number one posit ion RHI
35
in the ref ract ories business . The mos t important customer
30
indus tries are iron & steel, cement & lime, nonf errous metals and
25
glass . The group's c urrent targets are the st rengt hening of the
20
leading market pos ition als o through ac quisitions. It t arget s EUR
15
2bn rev enues and 12% EBIT margin by 2010. The f urther
10
bac kw ard integration w ith start up of its new raw material JV in 01/ 08 02/ 0803/ 08 04/ 08 05/ 08 06/ 08 07/ 08 08/ 0809/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
China in t he c ours e of 2008 w ill hav e a significant positiv e
RHI M AV 30 MA V60
margin impact. Our 12-month target price: EUR 19.

M a rket C ap 475.98 R et urn o n E q uit y 23.6%
P E c urrent Y e ar 7.96 E arni ngs G ro wth cu rre nt year - 55.5%
P E G R at io -- E arni ngs G ro wth ne xt yea r -4.4%
P rice / Bo o k R at io 1.68 H ist o rica l E a rn ing s G ro wt h - 35.6%
Österreichische Post AG
Austrian Pos t is the leading logist ics company in Austria, w ith a Österr eichische Po st AG
nat ionw ide s ervice obligation. In rec ent years, the f irm has been 29
transf ormed into a modern and suc ces sf ul company w ith high-
26
quality s tandards . Aust rian Pos t intends to grow through
selec tiv e ac quisitions, mainly in the CEE region. Recently, the 23
company w as f acing problems in its parcel div ision. How ever,

20
w e see still ups ide potent ial f or the s hare pric e. The div idend 01/ 08 02/ 0803/ 08 04/ 08 05/ 08 06/ 08 07/ 08 08/ 08 09/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
yield of around 10% (incl. the special div idend) s hould act as
OS TERREICHI S CHEP OST MAV 30 M AV60
support . Our target price: EUR 30.

OMV
OMV currently suf f ers signif ic antly f rom t he recent decline in OMV
60
the oil price. The s tock is s till s uitable as a "hedge" f or the 55
50
portf olio agains t possible oil price increas es and is also a good 45
40
means t o divers if y into the commodity sector. The valuation of 35
the st ock is currently quite low , in our opinion, and does not 30
25
consider the strong subst anc e of the company. Our target 20
15
price: under rev iew . 01/ 08 02/ 0803/ 08 04/ 08 05/ 08 06/ 08 07/ 08 08/ 08 09/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
OMV MA V 30 MAV60


Kapsch TrafficCom
Kapsch TrafficCom
KTC benef its in the long-term f rom budget c ons traints of 33
gov ernments and from the ever rising traf f ic volume. We s ee 30
27
plenty of projects globally in the long term. The valuation of the 24
stock is only based on ex ist ing project s, the disputed projec t in 21
18
Slovakia is completely exc luded f rom our model. Our target 15
12
pric e: EUR 32.7.
01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 08 04/ 08 05/ 08 06/ 08 07/ 08 08/ 08 09/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
K AP S CH TRA FFI C COM MA V30 MA V60

B et a n.a. O pera ti ng M argin 18.1%
P E c urrent Y e ar 8.46 E arni ngs G ro wth cu rre nt year - 23.4%
P rice / S ales R at io 1.14 H ist o rica l S a les Gro wt h -5.9%
Verbund
60
Verb und
Due to rising c ons truction cos ts f or new pow er plant s, w e
expect the electricit y prices to remain at least at high lev els. 50
90% of Verbund's c urrent ouput is generated by hy dropow er. 40

Assuming an average w ater supply , Verbund w ill be able to
30
pres ent another record year in 2009. How ev er, 2010 could
bring a dec lining res ult. Our target pric e: under review . 20
01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 08 04/ 0805/ 08 06/ 08 07/ 08 08/ 0809/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
VERBUNDGESELLS CHAFT MA V30 MA V60

CA Immo Int.
Ca Immo Int.(CAII) has recently cut back its development pipeline
13
CA Im m o I nternational
and also stat ed t hat they w ould only do “bargain hunting” in t he
cas e real market if opport unities arise. The stock is not perf ectly 10
liquid, but w e believe it has the perf ect c ons ervat ive strategy 7
f or this dif f ic ult market s ituation w ith an estimated LTV ratio of
4
only 12% at the end of 2008 and good contac ts t o Bank Austria
1
(10% ow ner of CA Immo). Addt ionally, CA Immo is constantly
01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 08 04/ 08 05/ 08 06/ 08 07/ 08 08/ 08 09/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08 01/ 09
increas ing it s st ake in the company . Our target pric e: EUR 6.0.
CA Imm o MA V 30 MA V60

M a rket C ap 123.86 R et urn o n E q uit y -18.2%
B et a 0.78 O pera ti ng M argin -169.2%
P E c urrent Y e ar -1.21 E arni ngs G ro wth cu rre nt year 530.1%
P E G R at io -- E arni ngs G ro wth ne xt yea r -19.5%
P rice / S ales R at io 2.32 H ist o rica l S a les Gro wt h n.a.

Andritz
Andritz has recently announced new ambitous long-t erm Andr itz
targets. Andrit z now targets a s ust ainable EBITA-margin level of 40 .0
7% (af ter 5. 9%) and a sales volume of EUR 4.5bn by 2010/ 11.
Bas ed on the track record inves tors can expect that promises 30 .0
w ill be delivered. We thinkt t hat Andritz is a good inves tment
20 .0
cas e in a recessionary environment due to a f lexible cost
strucutre and its strong exposure to the market f or renew able 10 .0
energy (+40% ). Our target pric e: EUR 40. 0. 01/ 08 02/ 0803/ 0804/ 0805/ 0806/ 0807/ 08 08/ 0809/ 0810/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 0801/ 09
ANDRITZ MA V60 MA V30

P E c urrent Y e ar 8.35 E arni ngs G ro wth cu rre nt year -7.7%
Zumtobel
Zumtobel is the leading pure player in the highly fragment ed
22
Zumtobel
light ing bus iness in Europe and a global player in the c omponent
19
bus iness w it h a core competence on s tate-of -the-art product s. 16
The f oc us is on components ("TridonicAtco"), prof essional 13
10
light ing solutions , luminaires and lighting management, primarily
7
in the non-residential sector. The company is currently f ac ing a 4
very tough environment but w ith the EUR 480mn, 5-year credit 1
01/ 08 02/ 08 03/ 08 04/ 08 05/ 08 06/ 08 07/ 08 08/ 08 09/ 08 10/ 08 11/ 08 12/ 08
agreement concluded mid 2008 it should be able to w eather the
storm. Our target price: EUR 8.0. Zumt obel M AV60 M AV 30

P E c urrent Y e ar 30.46 E arni ngs G ro wth cu rre nt year -84.1%
P rice / Bo o k R at io 0.52 H ist o rica l E a rn ing s G ro wt h - 55.7%
P rice / S ales R at io 0.25 H ist o rica l S a les Gro wt h -4.5%

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Phone +43 ( 0)5 0100 - ext.
Erste Group Homepage: www.erstegroup.com On Bloomberg please type: ERBK <GO>.
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opinions herein are based upon, sources believed reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. All
opinions, forecasts and estimates herein reflect our judgement on the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. T he report is not intended to be
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of Erste Group or its affiliates may have a position in the securities referred to herein or hold options, warrants or rights with respect thereto or other securities of
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Recommendation List

International Stocks – January 30, 2009

Erste Group Research - Recommendation List January 30, 2009 Seite 1

since 01.01.03 since 01.01.09 since 01.01.03 since 01.01.09

since 01.01.03 since 01.01.09 since 1.1.03 since 01.01.09

Pur chas e Purc has e Cur r ent Pe r f. Outpe r f. Pe r f.

since 01.01.03 since 01.01.09 since 1.1.03 since 01.01.09

Austria ATX € 48.10% -2.72% Portfolio € 352.47% 6.88%

Pur chas e Purc has e Cur r ent Outpe r f. Pe r f.

Erste Group Research - Recommendation List January 30, 2009 Seite 2

t he s toc k f rom our rec ommendation list . 4 .0

BOMB ARDIER ' B' MA V60 M AV 30

Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth

Johnson & Johnson

JOHNSON & JOHNS ON MA V60 MA V 30

Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth

A GNI CO-EA GLE MINES MA V60 M AV 30

Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth

Erste Group Research - Recommendation List January 30, 2009 Seite 3

New Recom mendation: Goldcorp is a North American gold 48

Goldc orp MA V60 M AV 30

Market Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth

Berkshire Hathaway Inc B

BERK SHIREHATHAWA Y' B' MA V60 M AV 30

Market Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth

average grow th f or an extended period of time.

ORA CLE MAV 30 M AV60

Market Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth

Erste Group Research - Recommendation List January 30, 2009 Seite 4

RWE MA V60 MA V30

Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth

GA MESA CORPN.TEGC. MAV 30 MA V60

Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth

Vestas Wind Systems

f rom Europe (62%) and t he grow th markets Americas (24% ) and

Vest as MA V60 MA V30

M a rket C ap 52,875.77 R et urn o n E q uit y 20.95

Erste Group Research - Recommendation List January 30, 2009 Seite 5

Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth

ROCHE HOLDI NG MA V60 M AV 30

Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth

Erste Group Research - Recommendation List January 30, 2009 Seite 6

Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth

Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth

CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK

CCB is our top-pic k w ithin t he Chinese banking sec tor. In our 8

view , CCB should be a key benef ic iary of the rising rat e 7

cyc le. Grow th, valuation as w ell as margins are more 6

attractive t han the Peer Group. CCB ist c urrently evaluating 5

takeov er-targets w orldw ide, the trough-train program (DII 4

CHINA CON.B ANK ' H' MA V30 M AV60

Marke t Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth

Erste Group Research - Recommendation List January 30, 2009 Seite 7

CH IN A MOB ILE MA V30 MA V60

Market Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth

Li hir Gol d MAV 30 MAV60

Market Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth

INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES LTD

I NFOS YS TECH NOLOGI ES MAV 30 MA V60

Market Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth

Erste Group Research - Recommendation List January 30, 2009 Seite 8

Market Data / Valuation Profitability / Growth

Valuation an d grow th prospec ts are f av ourable