Biofuels, Agriculture and the Environment

Remarks by Craig Cox

Kansas Natural Resource Conference
 What I Will Cover
• Context in which we need to think
about agriculture, biofuels, and the
environment.
• Current policy and “conventional
biofuels (corn ethanol).
• “Advanced biofuels.”
• New policy.
 Move Away from Fossil
Fuels as Fast as we Can
 Move Away from Fossil
Fuels as Fast as we Can
 Move Away from Fossil
Fuels as Fast as we Can
Build a New Energy
Economy
 Build a New
Energy Economy
Build a New Energy Economy
 While Lifting
Billions Out of Hunger
... And Poverty
In the Face of Global Warming

• More frequent
and more severe
fires.

• More frequent
and severe
drought.

• Pest and insect

eruptions.
With Profound Ecological Effects

• Dead zones
expand 10-fold?

• 75 % of U.S.
coastal areas
already show
symptoms of
eutrophication.
... And on Conservation

• Increased
frequency and
severity of
storms.

• Soil erosion and

runoff from
cropland could
double.
... While Water Shortages Multiply
• UNEP: More than half
of humanity will be living
with water shortages in
less than 50 years.

• GAO: 36 U.S. states

could face water
shortages by 2013.

• UN Secretary General
Ban Ki Moon: 2. 7 billion
people in 46 countries
with a high-risk of
violent conflict over
water by 2025.
Increased frequency
and severity of storms.

• Soil erosion and

runoff from cropland
could double.
 Preeminent Challenges
of this Century
• Move away from fossil fuels.
• Double food production.
• Lift billions out of poverty.
• “Manage” profound effects of global
warming.
• Agriculture is at the center of this
challenge.
 So Whatʼs a “Good” Biofuel?
• Can make a major contribution, quickly, to
displacing gasoline.
• Doesnʼt compete with food production for
land and water.
• Substantially reduces greenhouse gas
emissions.
• Conserves soil, water, and habitat.
• Agriculture with all its environmental,
economic and development implications
is at the center of this challenge.
 Thrust of Current Policy:
Expand Corn Ethanol

• 45 cent tax credit for each gallon of ethanol blended

with gasoline.

• 54 cent tariff on imported ethanol.

• Federal mandate to use corn ethanol (10 billion

gallons this year; 15 billion by 2015).

• Multiple state mandates and subsidies.

• Soon be spending more on ethanol tax credits each

year than on entire farm bill conservation title
 Policy has “Worked”
Driven a Rapid Increase in Production

U.S. Ethanol Production

7,000

6,000

5,000
Gallons (Millions)

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99

00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19

20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
 But...
Limited Potential to Replace Gasoline

Using entire 2007 corn crop to produce ethanol would replace 10 to 15 percent of
the gasoline used in the U.S. each year.
 And
Competes with Food Production

• “World agriculture has entered a

new, unsustainable and politically
risky period,” says Joachim von
Braun, the head of the
International Food Policy
Research Institute (IFPRI) in
Washington, DC.

• Poor people are suffering daily

from the impact of high food
prices, especially in urban areas
and in low income countries,” said
World Bank Group President
Robert B. Zoellick. “In some
countries, hard-won gains in
overcoming poverty may now be
reversed.”
 Plus
Greenhouse Gas Reduction?

• Highly controversial, ongoing debate

among scientists.

• Highly dependent on how you deal

with “indirect effects” -- conversion of
grassland or forest to crop production.

• How to account of nitrous oxide

emissions from corn production.

• How you look at it also makes a big

difference--emission reductions on a
per mile basis tell a different story
than on a gallon of gasoline to gallon
of corn ethanol comparison.
 What About
Soil and Water Conservation?
 Cellulosic Ethanol
Will It Save the Day???

• More questions than answers so far.

• Which biofuel wins: ethanol, butanol, bio-
gasoline???
• What conversion process comes out on top:
biological, thermochemical, pyrolysis???
• What feedstock is used and how is it produced
and harvested??????????
Is This the Future?
Or Is This the Future?
Or this???
 So...
Where to Now with Public Policy?

• Pause.
• Change direction.
• Proceed with caution.
 Pause

• No more federal mandates or subsidies to expand

conventional biofuels (largely corn ethanol).

• Freeze mandate to produce conventional ethanol

at current level.

• Phase out “blenders tax credit” -- phase in

subsidies tied to greenhouse gas reductions and
conservation.
 Change Direction

• Put in place a comprehensive energy policy.

• Conservation and energy efficiency as the first priority.

• Balance our renewable energy portfolio:

• Corn ethanol currently gets 75 percent of renewable energy tax
benefits.

• Put money into renewable energy options with greatest potential for
energy independence, greenhouse gas reductions, and for conserving
soil, water, and habitat.
 Proceed with Caution

• In a recent article in Science Magazine, twenty-three

scientists from multiple disciplines had this to say
about biofuel policy:

• “We know that grain-based biofuel cropping systems

as currently managed cause environmental harm.”

• “The identification of unintended consequences early

in the development of alternative fuel strategies will
help to avoid costly mistakes and regrets...”
 Promise or Peril of Biofuels

• If we pause, change direction and proceed with

caution, will can harvest the promise and avoid the
perils of biofuels.

• Right now we seem to be headed toward a more

rationale and comprehensive energy policy.

• That is very good news, but conservationists must be

vigilant.
 Must Not
Trade Soil or Water for Oil

• It makes no sense to replace

one scarce resource – oil –
with two other scarce
resources – soil and water.

• Resource conservation
must be a central element of
biofuel policy—it is not now.

• Biofuels are a solution only if

they conserve soil, water,
and habitat.
 Thank You
For what you do to conserve soil, water, and
habitat.

We are counting on you.

Craig Cox
Environmental Working Group
Midwest Office, Ames Iowa
craig@ewg.org
 Thank You
For what you do to conserve soil, water, and
habitat.

We are counting on you.

Craig Cox
Environmental Working Group
Midwest Office, Ames Iowa
craig@ewg.org