AP Gov Election Project Florida Demographics 17.6% of people are over 65 (13.3% in US) 78.5% white, 16.

6.5% black, 22.9% hispanic 86% high school graduates, 25% bachelor degree or higher 13.8% below poverty level Current Polls 49.2 in favor of Obama (Romney 46.1%) Obama seems to be pulling away Previous Elections 2008 - Obama (52.9%) McCain (45.6%) 2004 - Bush (50.7%) Kerry (48.3%) 2000 - Bush (49%) Gore (49%) 1996 - Clinton (48%) Dole (42%) President who has won Florida each of last 4 elections has won Key Counties Hillsborough Have picked winner each election since 1960 11.9% are over 65 No President has won election without winning Hillsborough 4 Romney offices 4 Obama offices Pinellas 21% are over 65 2 Romney offices 4 Obama offices Major Issues Unemployment is about 18.8%, a bit higher than national average Third most foreclosures in the country Foreclosure rate 3 times more than national average Pensions/Social Security for old people Congressmen Senator Bill Nelson (D) Senator Marco Rubio 19/25 Representatives are Republican, Governor is Republican

AP Gov Shaw Swing State: Florida In this years Presidential election, Florida is going to be the most important swing state in the Union. A reason for this is because Floridas electoral votes have jumped from 25 in 2000 to 29 in this years election1. And over the years, Florida has decided many elections, especially in the last four elections. Fortunately for Barack Obama, he leads the current poll at about 49.2%, , nearly a 3.1 point advantage over Mitt Romney2. In these past four elections, two Democrats and two Republicans have won Florida. It is difficult to determine which way this state will swing. In 2008 and 1996, Florida chose a Democratic President, those being Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. But in 2000 and 2004, Florida selected George W. Bush twice3. However, Florida has also become a very controversial state in terms of vote count. In fact, 2000 marked a very controversial election between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush. The winner of the election was hard to determine because of controversy in Florida polls. Due to this controversy, the election even went to the Supreme Court where the George W. Bush was ultimately declared the winner of the 2000 Presidential election. But other factors also contributed to this election, as well as the upcoming 2012 election. When looking at a map of Florida that depicts each regions party identification, it would be easy to identify Florida as a very Republican state. Almost the entire state voted for John

1 1 2

Earnest, Lester. "The Fulcrum." The Economist, September 15, 2012, 28.

Real Clear Politics, "Florida: Obama v. Romney." Accessed September 27, 2012. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html.
2 3

270 To Win, "Florida Presidential Election Voting History." Last modified 2012. Accessed September 27, 2012. http://www.270towin.com/states/Florida.
3

McCain with the exceptions of Tallahassee and southeastern Florida near Miami4. Unfortunately for John McCain, these two regions are two of the most densely populated areas. These regions alone nearly guaranteed Barack Obama a victory. But two counties that are pivotal to winning Florida are Hillsborough County and Pinellas County in Tampa, Florida. The reason these counties are so important is because they seem to swing in almost every election. In 2004, both counties supported George W. Bush while in 2008 both supported Barack Obama. In fact, Hillsborough Country has sided with the winner in every election except in 1996 when they chose George H.W. Bush over Bill Clinton5. As a result, both Obama and Romney have taken notice of the importance of these two counties. Obama and the Democrats have placed almost 8 offices in these two counties. However, Romney and the Republicans went a step further. Not only do they have about 6 offices in the area, the Republicans cleverly held the Republican National Convention in Tampa, trying to win over the voters as well as the political officials6. These political officials may indicate which way the state may swing. In the Senate, Bill Nelson(D) and Marco Rubio(R) represent Florida7. Marco Rubio even gave a very important speech at the Republican National Convention. In the House of Representatives, Florida has an overwhelmingly Republican cast with 19 out of 25 representatives belonging to the Republican party8. By looking at these numbers alone, one would think that Florida must be a heavily Republican state. However, the key factor that will determine which way Florida swings is knowing both the demographics and key issues of the state.

4 5

The Economist Ibid. 6 Ibid.

7

US Congress, "Senators of the 112th Congress." Accessed September 27, 2012. http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm?State=FL.
7 8 8

US Congress, "Directory of Representatives." Accessed September 27, 2012. http://www.house.gov/representatives/

Florida is notorious for being one of the oldest states in the Union. 17.6% of people in the state are over 65. Just 13.3% of people in America are over 659. However, Florida is also known as one of the most diverse states. African-Americans and Hispanics make up nearly 40% of Floridas population, far more than any other state10. This is very important because African-Americans, Hispanics, and other minority groups generally vote for the Democratic Party. This is because at the time when FDR was in office, the Democrats were focused on making life easier for minorities while the Republican party was not so ambitious. Because of the large population of minority groups in Florida, Democrats have a slight advantage there. Democrats also have a large advantage over the key issue in Florida: the economy. Unemployment rate in July reached nearly 8.8%, slightly higher than the national average11. Foreclosure rates have also skyrocketed recently at about 11%, more than three times the national average12. Only California and Arizona have a higher rate. With Obamas more liberal economic plan, many Floridians have flocked towards the Democratic party in hope that unemployment and foreclosure rates will decline. Nonetheless, Romney and the Republicans are still running a strong campaign and Florida should have a large impact on the upcoming election.

US Census Bureau Ibid. 11 The Economist 12 Ibid.

10

Works Consulted

Earnest, Lester. "The Fulcrum." The Economist, September 15, 2012, 28. Real Clear Politics, "Florida: Obama v. Romney." Accessed September 27, 2012. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama1883.html. US Congress, "Directory of Representatives." Accessed September 27, 2012. http://www.house.gov/representatives/ US Congress, "Senators of the 112th Congress." Accessed September 27, 2012. http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm?State=FL. United States Census Bureau, "Florida Quick Facts." Last modified 2012. Accessed September 27, 2012. http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/12000.html. 270 To Win, "Florida Presidential Election Voting History." Last modified 2012. Accessed September 27, 2012. http://www.270towin.com/states/Florida.