REMODEL URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN EGYPT: A FUTURE VISION

AHMED M. SOLIMAN Professor, Head of Architecture Department, Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Egypt, ahmsoliman@yahoo.com

Abstract:
In Egypt, the program of presidential election on November 2005 has emphasized on redefining and remodeling the role of the government through decentralization and developing local municipalities that aims to encourage public-private partnership by which draw exchangeable responsibilities between society and the state. As a response, in the early 2006 the General Organization for Physical Planning (GOPP) in cooperation with UN-HABITAT has introduced a project for setting up a General Strategic Urban Plan (GSUP) for 50 small Egyptian cities. The main objective is an attempt to assess the various needs of Egyptian cities and to draw up a new boundary for each city and to prevent further sprawl on agricultural areas. The GSUP is intended to involve the various stakeholders who engaged in the development processes to ensure that the plan is logic and appropriate for the requirements of the local citizen till the target year of 2027. GIS tools are used in investigating the existing situation of the Egyptian cities, as well as, it used in facilitating the decision process in setting up the final plan. This paper shows that GIS tool would enrich urban planning in a given area that the government would like to see it developed. The paper includes a case study of Samanood, as a small Egyptian city, and is emphasizing on the output maps as a way for understanding the recent urban sprawl by which would guide the decision makers to intervene in a proper way to enhance the future development of the Egyptian cities. A shift from traditional techniques of planning into using GIS tools is required.

1- Introduction
Triggered by the loss of agricultural land to informal urban sprawl and the lack of effective and efficient planning mechanisms, the GOPP 1 in Egypt has initiated in cooperation with UN_Habitat the preparation of GSUP for fifty small Egyptian cities. This paper will report on some of the findings from a recent project that examined Samanood City, as a small city, located at the heart of Delta Area in Lower Egypt. The GSUP, as a participatory approach, involving the stakeholders, is explored. Informal housing development is being diverse and multifaceted according to the history and the land mechanisms and to the ways land being developed (Soliman, 2010). The paper is adopted the mixed scanning approach (Etzioni, 1973) which is based on an analytical research design, relying on a case study, and includes a mix of semi structured interviews and meeting with key stakeholders, direct observation and focus group discussions. The study aims to show how the tool of Geographic information systems (GIS) could be used to facilitate the decision making process in guiding the planner to take the proper action towards the future expansion for housing development in the city. GIS are quickly becoming an important tool for policy analysis and program evaluation in urban administration and social science. This paper explores the use of GIS in the analysis of existing housing development in Samanood city. There are three key benefits of using GIS in this type of analysis. First, erratic mapping permits the visualization of data clusters that may be associated with certain public policies. In addition, statistical procedures can find the absence or presence of a certain types of housing. The visual presentation of data in map form is particularly powerful for both influencing public policy and conveying information a non-technical way to a variety of policy stakeholders. Second, GIS permits the combination of different units and levels of analysis into a single dataset through various

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kinds of table joins. Finally, the location information in GIS can be used to care contiguity and distance matrices for spatial local economic analysis, which by one way or another affects housing development. Taking advantage of these three benefits of GIS, it argued that the long-term emphasis on the development of the urban fabric of the city has not abed population emigration from the city and that rapid housing development, formally or informally, may be responsible for spreading of urban informality. The study is organized into four parts: first, theoretical and policy debates, second, research setting; third, GIS tools and the planning process; and last, a concluding section offering recommendations for future action.

2- Theoretical and policy debates

The shift from government to governance and enabling government, the related shift towards multiple-levels of governance and the current shift in international development to a more systems-thinking perspective (amongst others in the context of the 2005 Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness) and therefore seeing multiple level governance any more as a normative good way of governance, but talking about the right balance between coherence and autonomy (Soliman, 2010). Approaches to capacity development in the development literature- in the context of the 2005 Paris Declaration for Aid Effectiveness- have started to reinterpret capacity development from a systems perspective (Baser and Morgan, 2008). Kuhl (2009) can be partly interpreted in these terms, but in addition reflects on those who stand to benefit (Wignaraja, 2009). Baser and Morgan (2008) define capacity as the emergent combination of five core capabilities. One of them is the capability to balance coherence and diversity (or in Kuhls terms: autonomy). In furthering the debate on capacity development Kuhl (2009) takes on an observant position on the debate on capacity development and discusses the two forms of organizational fashions: fashions alternating between two organizational poles and fashions for attending to constant aims. What is frequently overlooked, however, is the number of similarities between values and fashions in organizations, and the fact that there are organizational fashions whose most important function is to help support values. The major difference between the two forms of organizational fashions is that the first form focuses on the means that are intended to achieve a super ordinate goal, value or purpose. The second fashion form is not oriented on the means but on the end, on the purpose, on the value itself. Kuhl actually observes that the capacity development debate recurrently tried to solve disappointing results by further extending the boundaries for capacity development and touches upon the self-help paradox. Moreover, capacity development should have such a structure that the poor (who are usually not organized) are also in a position to build up capacities through non-government organizations (NGOs) (Hilderbrand, 2002). On the other hand, Grindle (2006) emphasized on the increased emphasis on politics or contextual political factors (and power) affecting public sector capacity building initiatives. He defines capacity building as a frequent tonic prescribed for local governments in poor performance health 2 . In the first instance, capacity building initiatives are dependent on the orientation of elected and appointed leaders who choose to invest in or ignore them. Secondly, capacity building initiatives are significantly affected by electoral cycles that create moments when significant new capacity initiatives can be introduced and abandoned. Thirdly, capacity building initiatives are dependent on the formal and informal institutions that determine how much scope public officials have for introducing change. Nair (2003) argued that there is an emerging consensus that capacity building in developing countries must shift from supply side, donor-driven to demand-led approaches. Three areas in which this is critical are evaluation capacity, the availability of skilled individuals, and aid management. The assumption is that GIS is an important tool in all phases of planning processes and acquires a spatial orientation that is essential to offering the knowledge necessary for facilitating decision making processes. The output spatial maps are essential to facilitate the decision for urban development in a given area by which would contributing to the urban policy making with respect to the citys urban qualities including land use, public space, and spatial development (Easa, S. and Chan, Y., 2000). Any data that can be mapped, can become an integral part of GIS by relating the geographical features (e.g. city parcels) to linked database of attributes (e.g. owner and property value). GIS does not necessarily

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have to link the database attributes of mapped features to a location on the Earth, but to any spatially referenced system (see for example, Stewart, D. et al, 2004).

3- Research setting
In Egypt, the program of presidential election on November 2005 has emphasized on redefining and remodeling the role of the government as an implementable effective tool through decentralization and developing local municipalities that aims to encourage public-private partnership by which draw exchangeable responsibilities between society and the state. As a response, in the early 2006 the GOPP has introduced a project for setting up GSUP for Egyptian Cities. The main objective is an attempt to assess the various needs of 221 cities and to draw up a new boundary for each city to meet the future requirements of its citizen till the year 2027. The GSUP is intended to involve the various stakeholders who engaged in the development processes to ensure that the plan is logic and appropriate for the requirements of the local citizen, and prevent further sprawl on agricultural areas which accounted to be within the figure of one million Fadden in the last two decades. Today, the total population of Egypt is approaching the figure of 77 million; it is the region's largest population in the North Africa (UN_Habitat, 2008). More than half of the region's population now lives in urban areas. A great portion of urban settlements have been concentrated in two major urban centers; Cairo and Alexandria, a nearly constitute 50 percent of Egypt's urban population, while the least are scattered in 221 small and middle urban settlements along the Nile valley and the Nile River Delta. Most of GSUP for Egyptian cities will expand on adjacent agricultural areas, however, it is expected that Egypt will lose, formally, around 66300 Faddan of the best fertilize areas within the next twenty years (Soliman, 2010). The UN World Urbanization Prospects' figures predict that the urban growth rate will become twice the national rate in the next 15 years and that Egypt will be 62.4 percent urbanized by 2050 (UN_Habitat, 2008). The combination of rapid population growth, which spread on the fringe of urban centers, especially on agricultural land, and the shift from rural to urban areas concentrations continues to put further pressure on infrastructure, housing and services. Rapid urbanization coinciding with the longest period of economic prosperity in modern Egypt has created a huge demand for urban housing and spreading of urban informality, by which more than 80% of housing constructed in the last three decades in Egypt were illegal (Soliman, 2007). With the increasing demand for housing plots/units by low-income groups, and the difficulty of obtaining a cheap shelter within the big urban centers, informality markets has become, and will continue to be, the main feature of urban development in Egyptian landscape (Soliman, 2010). Within the scope of the program of presidential election, and recognizing that many cities in Egypt lack a vision for urban management, UN-HABITAT is supporting the GOPP in preparing strategic urban plans for 50 small Egyptian cities 3 . The city of Samanood, was among the first phase of the programme, being assignment to the Local Consultants Team (LCT) headed by a leader 4 , in the line of the Terms of Reference (TOR) of the project which being deliberated by UN-HABITAT and the GOPP 5 . The GOPP is managed an information system to house the outputs of a model that ensures both coordination and speedy evaluation of GIS outputs. The GSUP is adopted a decentralized, integrated approach, and a participatory process to address three main substantive areas, i.e. shelter, basic urban services and local economic development; environment, governance and vulnerability are additional cross cutting areas that will continue to inform the process by which priority actions projects are chosen by local stakeholders. In addition, the project is delivered land and geographic information systems (GIS), training on land regularization and action planning to enhance urban management. The project is also established urban observatories to contribute to the effective management of urban policy, and to improving performance and accountability in programming the development of the Egyptian cities, implementing and coordinating actions, especially those that reduce exclusion and vulnerabilities. The ownership of the process is developed synergies among public and private stakeholders towards the effective economic and social development of the city 6 .

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4- Using GIS tools in the planning process

Throughout the various phases of the planning process GIS tools were used to record the existing data and to analysis the output information in order to facilitate the proper decision for future expansion of the city. The following parts explain briefly the using GIS in the planning processes.

4-1 Methodology, Tools and Data

The planning methodology in the city of Samanood is divided into three phases. The first step of the first phase is a meeting with the Governor of El Gharbyhia governorate and the City leaders that has been conducted, to present the method in order to have the political approval and support to begin the work. Following this meeting, the field surveys and interviews were carried out. It was through examination for availability of maps, spatial and satellite images and spatial survey for land uses, basic surveys including road networks and infrastructure and collecting indicators to determine the current situation. All gathered data and information were recorded in GIS database. Interviewing with the stakeholders and several individual meetings were coinciding with the field survey. Analyzed the situation of the city through SWOT analysis, and consult the stakeholders through workshops and meetings to obtain a clear view of the potentialities of the city. The second phase is formulating a future vision that have to be achieved in the target year of 2027 with a focus on the development of competitiveness. In a City Consultancy, the current situation and analysis had been clearly presented. Accordingly, the GSUP for Samanood city was set up as well as its building regulation, new boundary, geographic database city's GIS and priority projects. Timing for implementation, and investments plans were settled and agreed by the stakeholders (see figure 1). Depending on a GIS model being given in the TOR for the project, the land uses of the city has been surveyed and recorded (see figure 1). This model had been built to cover three major subject areas; shelter, urban services and local economy. It assumed that the output data would give a clear picture about the existing situation by which would assemble the current issues that the city faced. This model is divided into two parts; City region and City level. The former covered administrative limits, public land, water bodies, regional roads, railway lines, and finally, settlements within the region. The purpose is to examine the relationship between the city and the near by areas that might have a major influence on the development of the city. The latter covered the following aspects; city administrative boundaries, land aspects (land tenure, land prices, vacant land), residential buildings aspects, non residential buildings, informal areas, and finally basic urban services (roads network, sewerage system, water network, electricity network, and solid waste disposals). The output maps were the analysis of housing situation in terms of assessment of the driving forces for housing growth; assessment of housing situation; and identification of housing development and redevelopment areas. In addition, informal areas, unplanned and planned areas were identified. The idea was to create a database for existing situation of the city as well as to use these data for facilitating the future needs for setting GSUP for the City. The total population of the city is around 60755 persons (CAPMAS, 2006) which it is projected to reach around 78467 persons by the year 2027. On the public side, data advocacy involves creating GIS-supported decision-making systems that include processes open to all affected groups. On the private side, it involves eliminating real or perceived barriers to stakeholders in decision-making, including technological. The evolution could be described as moving from focus on a single public agency to multiple public agencies to public-private cooperation (primarily one-way, and primarily to those already embracing spatial information technologies) to public-private collaboration (with two-way data flows). Data advocacy is still a perspective that reflects a public agency's role in building and maintaining information systems, as opposed to other forms of public participation GIS that may involve implementation by non-governmental organizations involved in public decision-making processes. The GSUP contributes to the discussion about the role of data and housing development information in land use decision-making by purposefully improving the type, quality, and availability of housing development information and analysis in a jurisdiction with an on-going and highly charged land use decision-making scene. It is, in essence, an attempt to move toward data advocacy and perhaps a

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higher degree of "democratization" that this implies. It attempts to gauge the influence and impact this has on land use decision-making processes and outcomes through first-hand observation, post-decision reconstruction, surveys, and other methods. Key questions include: is new information being used? Who is using it? Has the improved accuracy, specificity, and availability resulted in different decision?

4-2 Methods of analysis

As mentioned above, the project emphasized on three main subject areas, shelter, basic urban services and local economic developed, however, the analysis concentrated on these themes. Registration and transformation of data are transformed into layer images with grid and vector data within a coordinate system. Data analysis is conceptually divided into two categories; traditional, and object oriented. A wide range of applications are based on each category. Applications based on traditional analysis used query tool for determining distance, proximity, direction, adjacency, and connective relationships between mapped features. Using the query tools available in ArcGIS, the output maps were drawn in spatial format to reflect the build-up area of the existing situation of the city and to present the direction of urban growth. A comparison was made between the build-up area since last two census (1986-2006) by which the recent growth was measured (see figure 2). The existing housing situation was analyzed from the following perspectives, housing heights, condition of building, material of construction, type of tenure, electricity services, water services, sewerage services and the number of housing units. Applications based on oriented analysis are used to make a comparison between different variables to assess the housing situation by estimating the following aspects. Rate and scale of new housing formation, replacement of housing that will have fully depreciated in planning period, replacement of deficit units not upgradeable, number of housing units needed to relieve overcrowding, upgrading to deficient units economically feasible at start of planning period, calculating affordability (by estimating the amount households can afford at different levels of income or expenditure), determining (or estimating) what types and standards of housing can be obtained for given levels of affordability, and finally, estimating the average costs of upgrading existing deficient housing to bring it up to a defined standard. The complex relationships between numerous thematic layers were reached (see figures 3). A summary statistics (mean, median, range, etc.) of a field or fields from the related database based on a selected set of geographical features were achieved. GIS is also used to generate regression models from stacked raster database to spatially predict a variable based on a number of independent variables included as layers in the stack.

4-3 Spatial correlations

Sophisticated mapping, graphing, charting, spatial statistical summaries, and reporting methods to elucidate spatial information resulting from data integration and analysis are reached. Hierarchical data structures or making methods are displayed at different levels of maps at different scales. The use of geographic information systems (GIS) as a tool for programme and policy evaluation is beginning to make an impact on the social sciences. This is primarily the result of new developments in GIS programming that permit such systems to run on standard desktop computers and be used by individuals with modest computer and quantitative training. The thematic mapping made possible with software programmes like ArcView GIS arms the analyst with the ability to spatially visualize demographic trends within programme or municipal boundaries. The display of data in map form has facilitates the decision to the policy analyst responsible for explaining performance and development results to more qualitatively oriented professionals. Moreover, analysts are finding that the utilization of spatial data, prior to the specification of quantitative models, leads more accurately specified models and presents in a simple way the direction of the urban growth. Finally, GIS permits the creation of distance continuity matrices that can be used to statistically examine spatial clusters and spatial lags in data.

4-4 Decision making and GIS

The availability of appropriate inexpensive technology for manipulating spatial data enables Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) applications is created. There are three categories of decisions

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may find that GIS can make a contribution to planning process. The first group is in the traditional areas of application of GIS, in disciplines such as land uses. In this field GIS was initially used as a means of speeding up the processing of spatial data, for the completion of activities that contribute directly to productivity. In this context the automated production of maps, has a role similar to that of data processing in planning. The second group of decisions is in fields of a new area for housing development location analysis. Although the spatial components of such decisions are emphasized on housing analysis, but it obtained a clear visual image about a new area for housing location. In the future these analyses will be incorporated into GIS providing superior interface and database components to work with the housing typologies. The third group of decisions find GIS important include those where the importance of both spatial data and modeling is somewhat neglected at present. In disciplines such as marketing, additional possibilities for analysis are provided by the availability of increasing amounts of spatially correlated information, for example demographic data. Furthermore the geographic convenience of housing supply relative to customers' locations is an important tool of housing market driven competition. The availability of user friendly SDSS to manipulate this type of data will lead to additional decision possibilities being examined which are difficult to evaluate without the use of GIS. The main output is visualization of data, model specification, and spatial statistics in a study of new areas for housing development in Samanood City (see figure 4).

5- Conclusion
This paper illustrated the use of GIS in the examination of existing situation patterns in Samanood City. GIS was also used to evaluate the citys housing development. The GIS software ArcView permitted thematic mapping which illustrated housing development in city in time and space. It is too early in our experiments to say whether our infusion of better housing development information has engaged more people in the decision-making process or influenced land use decisions. Clearly though, it has been an important component of the Samanood plans process. Housing development information and spatial analysis were prominent components of the public land use forums. A land use vision statement by the GSUP included many maps that were clearly the products of a GIS. A content analysis of that document revealed at least 20 different calls for information products or spatial analyses to support the GSUP proposed land use goals. In it, the Samanoods Mayor called for "improving the way we do business by developing new information technologies to make more informed growth decisions. The extent to which other actors in land use decision-making adopt and use the products and the technologies remains to be determined. At this point, participation seems to be primarily by technologically inclined. It seems thus far that this comprises most of the community directly involved in land use issues. This is not to suggest that other groups who may be less technologically sophisticated are not affected by land use decisions (and thus by GIS if it plays a significant role in decision-making). We will need to surmount the difficult methodological hurdle of determining who wins and who loses in the overall land use process, and then whether GIS was among the causal factors in these outcomes. At this point, practitioners promoting more accessible housing development records can be comforted that we have no evidence to suggest that this has disadvantaged any groups or individuals. Their influence appears to be positive, though of course this is an ongoing drama with many layers and perspectives that await more comprehensive evaluation.

References
Baser, H. and Morgan, P. (2008), Capacity, Change and performance, European Centre for Development policy management, HE Maastricht, the Netherlands. Also avaliable in ausaid.gov.au/hottopics/pdf/ . CAPMAS (2006), General Statistics for Population and Housing: Population Census, Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, Cairo, Egypt Grindle, M. (2006) Modernizing Town Hall: Capacity Development with a Political Twist, Public Administration and Development 26, p.55-69 Also, Available (www.interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/pad.394.

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Easa, S. and Chan, Y. (2000) Urban Planning and Development Applications of GIS, American Society of Civil Engineers, USA. Etzioni, A. (1973) 'Mixed scanning: A third approach to decision making', Pp. 217-230 in Faludi, A. (1973) A reader in Planning Theory, Pergamon Press Limited, Headington Hill Hall, Oxford, England. Hilderbrand, Mary E. (2002) Capacity Building for Poverty Reduction: Reflections on Evaluations of UN System Efforts. Unpublished ms. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University. Kuhl, Stefan (2009) "Capacity Development as the Model for Development Aid Organizations." Development and Change 40, no. 3: 551-577 Nair, Govindan G. (2003) "Nurturing Capacity in Developing Countries. From Consensus to Practice." Capacity Enhancement Briefs 1/2003: 14. Soliman, A. (2007). "Urban Informality in Egyptian Cities: Coping with Diversity." Paper presented
at the 2007 World Bank Fourth Urban Research Symposium. Soliman, A. (2010) Rethinking urban informality and the planning process in Egypt Journal of International Development Planning Review, 32, 2

Stewart, D., Yin, Z., Bullard, S. and Maclachlan, J. (2004) "Assessing the spatial structure of urban and population growth in the Greater Cairo Area, Egypt: a GIS and imagery analysis approach", Urban studies, 41, 1:95-116 UN_Habitat (2008) The State of African Cities 2008: A framework for Addressing Urban Challenges in
Africa, Nairobi, Kenya.

Wignaraja, Kanni (ed.) (2009) Capacity Development: a UNDP Primer, www.undp.org/capacity

The General Organization for Physical Planning (GOPP) is the planning organization in Egypt responsible for setting up and approved planning projects for both urban and rural areas. There is a committee within the GOPP for reviewing and approving planning projects submitted, after that the GOP has to send the approved plans to the Ministry of defence to get the Final approval of the planning projects. No body in Egypt can discus or review the decision of the Ministry of defence, as their decision concerns the National Security of the country. 2 In the first instance, capacity building initiatives are dependent on the orientation of elected and appointed leaders who choose to invest in or ignore them. Second, capacity building initiatives are significantly affected by electoral cycles that create moments when significant new capacity initiatives can be introduced and abandoned. Third, capacity building initiatives are dependent on the formal and informal institutions that determine how much scope public officials have for introducing change. 3 The planning of the 50 cities has been assignment over a period of three years (starting in 2007 till now) to local consultants after being qualified by UN-HABITAT. In parallel, to this technical cooperation and within the same planning processes, the GOPP has assignment the rest of the Egyptian cities among specialized Egyptian firms. 4 The planning team of Samanood City comprised five experts, headed by Ahmed Soliman, and five other members: Ali Bakr, Ali Massoud, Mohamed Fikry, Waleed Abd El Atheem and Tarek Sorour. This project was managed and supervised by Mr Ihab Shaalan, the Manager of the project of UN-HABITAT, and reviewed by Dr Marwa Abo Elftouh and Dr Ahmed Darwish. 5 Terms Of Reference is being discussed and agreed among specialized planners in UN-HABITAT and the GOPP. The scope of work includes: 1) analysis of internal and external issues to identify trends and main strengths and opportunities as well as weakness and threats the city is facing; 2) prepare and discuss with the city its future vision, objectives as well as alternative actions to fill development gaps and improve the living conditions of city residences, 3) consolidating priority actions into a strategic urban plan reflecting the spatial organization of the city; and 4) Preparing with stakeholders action plans for priority projects. 6 The main objectives of the project is to assess the existing shelter, basic urban services and economic situation in the Egyptian cities, integrate these analysis into a comprehensive GSUP, and kick-start implementation by developing a limited set of action plans for priority projects. The Project seeks to strengthen political sustainability of local leaders, social sustainability by including the vulnerable at every step of the process, economic sustainability of the projects, and environmental sustainability of resources used. The GSUP is provided authorities and stakeholders with a common vision and a framework to prepare and implement their respective policies, detailed plans and projects.
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Figure (1) Existing land uses

Figure (2) The development of the city built-up area

Figure (3) The general strategic urban plan of Samanood city

Figure (4) The development areas of Samanood city