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On Case: Warming Defense Frontline 1/2 ................................................................................................................................................. 3 Warming Defense Frontline 2/2 ................................................................................................................................................. 4 EXT 1NC 2 No impact of Biodiv loss ..................................................................................................................................... 5 EXT 1NC 3: No warming............................................................................................................................................................. 6 EXT 1NC 4: Warming Inevitable .............................................................................................................................................. 7 EXT 1NC 5: No impact ................................................................................................................................................................ 7 Warming Offense 1/2 .................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Warming Offense 2/2 .................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Extension: Warming Good: Biodiv .........................................................................................................................................10 Warming Good Extension: CO2 Fertilization .....................................................................................................................11 Disasters 1NC Frontline 1/5 ..................................................................................................................................................12 Disasters 1NC Frontline 2/5 ..................................................................................................................................................13 Disasters 1NC Frontline 3/5 ..................................................................................................................................................14 Disasters 1NC Frontline 4/5 ..................................................................................................................................................15 Disasters 1NC Frontline 5/5 ..................................................................................................................................................16 EXT 1NC 3: No Biopower Impact ..........................................................................................................................................17 EXT 1NC 4: Neoliberalism Good ...........................................................................................................................................17 EXT 1NC 4: Globalization Inevitable ....................................................................................................................................19 EXT 1NC 5: Cant solve racism ..............................................................................................................................................19 EXT 1NC 6: SQUO Solves ..........................................................................................................................................................20 Solvency Frontline 1/1 ................................................................................................................................................................21 EXT 1NC 1: ITAR .......................................................................................................................................................................22 EXT 1NC 1: ITAR AT: Not NASA .......................................................................................................................................23 EXT 1NC 3: PMNs for Satellites ..............................................................................................................................................23 Ans. To Add-Ons AT: Oceans Add-On ....................................................................................................................................................................24 AT: Biodiversity Add-On ..........................................................................................................................................................25 AT: Disease Add-on ....................................................................................................................................................................26 AT: Environmental Leadership Add-On ...............................................................................................................................27 Off-Case Weather Security K 1NC Shell ................................................................................................................................................28 Weather Security K 1NC Shell ................................................................................................................................................29 Weather Security K 1NC Shell ................................................................................................................................................30 Weather Security Link Extensions ..........................................................................................................................................31 Weather Security Link Extensions ..........................................................................................................................................32 Weather Security Impact extensions.......................................................................................................................................33 Weather Security Alternative extensions ..............................................................................................................................34 AT: Environmental Security Good .........................................................................................................................................35 Weather Security AT: Perm ......................................................................................................................................................36 Weather Security AT: Cede the Political ..............................................................................................................................37 1

GEOSS Case Negative

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Structural Violence Kritik 1NC................................................................................................................................................38 Structural Violence Kritik 1NC................................................................................................................................................39 Structural Violence Kritik 1NC................................................................................................................................................40 Structural Violence Kritik Thesis ............................................................................................................................................41 Structural Violence Link Disaster Preparedness ................................................................................................................42 Structural Violence AT: Perm ..................................................................................................................................................43 Disasters Advantage CP 1NC ...................................................................................................................................................44 Disasters Advantage CP 1NC ...................................................................................................................................................45 Disasters Advantage CP: SCIER Solvency ..........................................................................................................................46 Disasters Advantage CP: Civic Engagement Solvency ....................................................................................................47 1NC Bicarbonate Warming CP ................................................................................................................................................48 2NC Bicarbonate Warming CPFeasible/Cost Efficient................................................................................................49 Privatization CP Solvency .........................................................................................................................................................50 Privatization CP Solvency .........................................................................................................................................................51 Spending link: Satellites cost $$ ..............................................................................................................................................52 Politics: Plan Unpop ....................................................................................................................................................................53

Special thanks to the elite members of Seal Team 6: Austin Landes, Robert Torres, Mike Raposo, and Jessica Yu 2

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1) SQUO Solves: Relaunch of OCO
New Scientist 2010 (Feb 2, NASA satellite could pave way for policing CO2 emissions http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18467-nasa-satellite-could-pave-way-for-policing-co2-emissions.html)
NASA will launch a replacement for the Orbiting Carbon Observatory, a $278 million satellite that was lost during launch last year, the White House announced on Monday. The replacement, which should be able to measure man-made carbon dioxide emissions from cities and power plants, could pave the way for space probes designed to enforce future climate treaties.

2) No impact to biodiversity: Adaptation

Doremus Professor of Law at UC Davis Winter 2000 (Holly, Washington & Lee Law Review, "The Rhetoric and Reality of Nature Protection: Toward a New Discourse," 57 Wash & Lee L. Rev.
11)

In recent years, this discourse frequently has taken the form of the ecological horror story . That too is no mystery. The ecological horror
story is unquestionably an attention-getter, especially in the hands of skilled writers [*46] like Carson and the Ehrlichs. The image of the airplane earth, its wings wobbling as rivet after rivet is carelessly popped out, is

The apocalyptic depiction of an impending crisis of potentially dire proportions is designed to spur the political community to quick action . Furthermore, this story suggests a goal that appeals to many nature lovers: that virtually everything must be protected. To reinforce this suggestion, tellers
difficult to ignore. of the ecological horror story often imply that the relative importance of various rivets to the ecological plane cannot be determined. They offer reams of data and dozens of anecdotes demonstrating the unexpected value of apparently useless parts of nature. The moth that saved Australia from prickly pear invasion, the scrubby Pacific yew, and the downright unattractive leech are among the uncharismatic flora and fauna who star in these

1 The moral is obvious: because we cannot be sure which rivets are holding the plane together, saving them all is the only sensible course. Notwithstanding its attractions, the material discourse in general, and the ecological horror story in particular, are not likely to generate policies that will satisfy
anecdotes. n21 nature lovers. The ecological horror story implies that there is no reason to protect nature until catastrophe looms. The Ehrlichs' rivet-popper account, for example, presents species simply as the (fungible) hardware holding together the ecosystem. If we could be reasonably certain that a particular rivet was not needed to prevent a crash, the rivet-popper story suggests that we would lose very little by pulling it out. Many environmentalists,

the apocalyptic vision is less credible today than it seemed in the 1970s. Although it is clear that the earth is experiencing a mass wave of extinctions, n213 the complete elimination of life on earth seems unlikely. n214 Life is remarkably robust. Nor is human extinction probable any time soon. Homo sapiens is adaptable to nearly any environment. Even if the world of the future includes far fewer species, it likely will hold people. n215 One response to this credibility problem tones the story down a bit, arguing not that humans will go extinct but that ecological disruption will bring economies, and consequently civilizations, to their knees. n216 But this too may be overstating the case. Most ecosystem functions are performed by multiple species. This functional redundancy means that a high proportion of species can be lost without precipitating a collapse. n217
though, would disagree. n212 Reluctant to concede such losses, tellers of the ecological horror story highlight how close a catastrophe might be, and how little we know about what actions might trigger one. But

3) No Impact not anthropogenic

Ball 2007 Dr. Tim Ball is a renowned environmental consultant and former climatology professor at the Univ. of Winnipeg. Dr. Ball emplo ys his extensive background in climatology and other fields as an
advisor to the International Climate Science Coalition, Friends http://www.canadafreepress.com/2007/global-warming020507.htm

of Science and the Frontier Centre for Public Policy Ph. D in Climatology. Timothy Ball 2/5/07.

Global Warming, as we think we know it, doesn't exist. And I am not the only one trying to make people open up their eyes and see the truth.
But few listen, despite the fact that I was one of the first Canadian Ph.Ds. in Climatology and I have an extensive background in climatology, especially the reconstruction of past climates and the impact of climate change on human history and the human condition. Few listen, even though I have a Ph.D, (Doctor of Science) from the University of London, England and was a climatology professor at the University of Winnipeg. For some reason (actually for many), the World is not listening. Here is why. What would happen if tomorrow we were told that, after all, the Earth is flat? It would probably be the most important piece of news in the media and would generate a lot of debate. So why is it Warming phenomenon for years say that humans are not the cause nobody listens? Why does no one acknowledge that the Emperor has no clothes on? Believe it or not, Global Warming is not due to human contribution of Carbon Dioxide (CO2). This in fact is the greatest deception in the history of science.
that when scientists who have studied the Global We are wasting time, energy and trillions of dollars while creating unnecessary fear and consternation over an issue with no scientific justification. For example, Environment Canada brags about spending $3.7 billion in the last five years dealing with climate change almost all on propaganda trying to defend an indefensible scientific position while at the same time closing weather stations and failing to meet legislated pollution targets. No sensible person seeks conflict, especially with governments, but if we don't pursue the truth, we are lost as individuals and as a society. That is why I insist on saying that there is no evidence that we are, or could ever cause global climate change. And, recently, Yuri A. Izrael, Vice President of the United Nations sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed this statement. So how has the world come to believe that something is wrong? Maybe for the same reason we believed, 30 years ago, that global cooling was the biggest threat: a matter of faith. "It is a cold fact: the Global Cooling presents humankind with the most important social, political, and adaptive challenge we have had to deal with for ten thousand years. Your stake in the decisions we make concerning it is of ultimate importance; the survival of ourselves, our children, our species," wrote

The world has warmed since 1680, the nadir of a cool period called the Little Ice Age (LIA) that has generally continued to the present. These climate changes are well within natural variability and explained quite easily by changes in the sun . But there is nothing unusual going on. Since I obtained
Lowell Ponte in 1976. I was as opposed to the threats of impending doom global cooling engendered as I am to the threats made about Global Warming. Let me stress I am not denying the phenomenon has occurred. my doctorate in climatology from the University of London, Queen Mary College, England my career has spanned two climate cycles. Temperatures declined from 1940 to 1980 and in the early 1970's global cooling became the consensus. This proves that consensus is not a scientific fact. By the 1990's temperatures appeared to have reversed and Global Warming became the consensus. It appears I'll witness another cycle before retiring, as the major mechanisms and the global temperature trends now indicate a cooling. No doubt passive acceptance yields less stress, fewer personal attacks and makes career progress easier. What I have experienced in my personal life during the last years makes me understand why most people choose not to speak out; job security and fear of reprisals. Even in University, where free speech and challenge to prevailing wisdoms are supposedly encouraged, academics remain silent. I once received a three page letter that my lawyer defined as libellous, from an academic colleague, saying I had no right to say what I was saying, especially in public lectures. Sadly, my experience is that universities are the most dogmatic and oppressive places in our society. This becomes progressively worse as they receive more and more funding from governments that demand a particular viewpoint. In

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another instance, I was accused by Canadian environmentalist David Suzuki of being paid by oil companies. That is a lie. Apparently he thinks if the fossil fuel companies pay you have an agenda. So if Greenpeace, Sierra Club or governments pay there is no agenda and only truth and enlightenment? Personal attacks are difficult and shouldn't occur in a debate in a civilized society. I can only consider them from what they imply. They usually indicate a person or group is losing the debate. In this case, they also indicate how political the entire Global Warming debate has become. Both underline the lack of or even contradictory nature of the evidence. I am not alone in this journey against the prevalent myth. Several well-known names have also raised their voices. Michael Crichton, the scientist, writer and filmmaker is one of them. In his latest book, "State of Fear" he takes time to explain, often in surprising detail, the flawed science behind Global Warming and other imagined environmental crises. Another cry in the wilderness is Richard Lindzen's. He is an atmospheric physicist and a professor of meteorology at MIT, renowned for his research in dynamic meteorology - especially atmospheric waves. He is also a member of the National Academy of Sciences and has held positions at the University of Chicago, Harvard

Yet nobody seems to listen. I think it may be because most people don't understand the scientific method which Thomas Kuhn so skilfully and briefly set out in his book "The Structure of Scientific Revolutions." A
University and MIT. Linzen frequently speaks out against the notion that significant Global Warming is caused by humans. scientist makes certain assumptions and then produces a theory which is only as valid as the assumptions. The theory of Global Warming assumes that CO2 is an atmospheric greenhouse gas and as it increases temperatures rise. It was then theorized that since humans were producing more CO2 than before, the temperature would inevitably rise.

The theory was accepted before testing had started,

and effectively became a law.

that word

As Lindzen said many years ago: "the consensus was reached before the research had even begun." Now, any scientist who dares to question the prevailing wisdom is marginalized and called a sceptic, when in fact they are simply being good scientists. This has reached frightening levels with these scientists now being called climate change denier with all the holocaust connotations of

. The normal scientific method is effectively being thwarted. Meanwhile, politicians are being listened to, even though most of them have no knowledge or understanding of science, especially the science of climate and climate change. Hence, they are in no position to question a policy on climate change when it threatens the entire planet. Moreover, using fear and creating hysteria makes it very difficult to make calm rational decisions about
issues needing attention. Until you have challenged the prevailing wisdom you have no idea how nasty people can be. Until you have re-examined any issue in an attempt to find out all the information, you cannot know how much misinformation exists in the supposed age of information. I was greatly influenced several years ago by Aaron Wildavsky's book "Yes, but is it true?" The author taught political science at a New York University and realized how science was being influenced by and apparently misused by politics. He gave his graduate students an assignment to pursue the science behind a policy generated by a highly publicised environmental concern. To his and their surprise they found there was little scientific evidence, consensus and justification for the policy. You only realize the extent to which Wildavsky's findings occur when you ask the question he posed. Wildavsky's students did it in the safety of academia and with the excuse that it was an assignment. I have learned it is a difficult question to ask in the real world, however I firmly believe it is the most important question to ask if we are to advance in the right direction.

4) Too late to solve we cannot stop emissions.

PODESTA, President and CEO of the Center for American Progress, Former Chief of Staff for President Bill Clinton, AND OGDEN, Senior National Security Analyst at the Center for American Progress, 2008 John & Peter, Security Implications of Climate Scenario 1, In Climatic Cataclysm, p. 97-8 There is no foreseeable political or technological solution that will enable us to avert many of the climatic impacts projected in this chapter. The world will confront elements of this climate change scenario even if, for instance, the United States were to enter into an international carbon cap and trade system in the near future. The scientific community, meanwhile, remains far from a technological breakthrough that would lead to a decisive, near-term reduction in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Furthermore, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) AlB greenhouse gas emission scenario assumes that climate change will not trigger any significant positive feedback loops (for example, the release of carbon dioxide and methane from thawing permafrost). Such feedback loops would multiply and magnify the impacts of climate change, creating an even more hostile environment than the one projected here.

5) Warming impacts will be small.

de Freitas 2002 (C. R., Associate Prof. in Geography and Enivonmental Science @ U. Aukland, Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology, Are observed changes in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere really dangerous? 50:2, GeoScienceWorld) An understanding of global warming hinges on the answers to certain key questions. Is global climate warming? If so, what part of that warming is due to human activities? How good is the evidence? What are the risks? The task of answering these questions is hindered by widespread confusion regarding key facets of global warming science. The confusion has given rise to several fallacies or misconceptions. These myths and misconceptions,

The atmosphere may warm due to human activity, but if it does, the expected change is unlikely to be much more than 1 degree Celsius in the next 100 years. Even the climate models promoted by the IPCC do not suggest that catastrophic change is occurring. They suggest that increases in greenhouse gases are likely to give rise to a warmer and wetter climate in most places; in particular, warmer nights and warmer winters. Generally, higher latitudes would warm more than lower latitudes. This means milder winters and, coupled with increased atmospheric carbon dioxide, it means a
and how they relate to the above questions, are explained. Although the future state of global climate is uncertain, there is no reason to believe that catastrophic change is underway. more robust biosphere with greater availability of forest, crops and vegetative ground cover. This is hardly a major threat. A more likely threat is policies that endanger economic progress. The negative effect of such policies would be far greater than any change caused by global warming. Rather than try to reduce innocuous carbon dioxide emissions, we would do better to focus on air pollution, especially those aspects that are known to damage human health.

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EXT 1NC 2 No impact of Biodiv loss

Humans can adapt to species loss report proves.
IPCC 01 [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, supported by UNEP and WMO, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. 2001. http://wwwiam.nies.go.jp/aim/india0210/papers/ipccreports /workinggroup2/198.htm]

Humans may need to adapt not only in terms of wildlife conservation but also to replace lost ecological services normally provided by wildlife. It may be necessary to develop adaptations to losses to natural pest control, pollination, and seed dispersal. Although replacing providers of these services sometimes may be possible,
< the alternatives may be costly. Finding replacements for other services, such as contributions to nutrient cycling and ecosystem stability/ biodiversity, are much harder to imagine. In many cases, such as the values of wildlife associated with subsistence hunting and cultural and religious ceremonies, any attempt at replacement may represent a net loss. In many countries, climate change impacts, such as reductions in wildlife populations, may have the greatest impact on the lowest income groupsthose with the least ability to adapt if hunting opportunities decline.>

Rivet theory wrong not all species worth saving.

Possingham 07 [Hugh Possingham, professor of mathematics in the spatial ecology group at the University of Queensland Triage: Not all endangered species
worth saving says scientist: cost-efficiency decisions needed. October 17, 2007. http://gmarkets.wordpress.com/2007/10/17/triage-not-all-endangered-species-worthsaving-says-scientist-cost-efficiency-decisions-needed/]
<More training in mathematics needed: Professor Possinghams proposal had raised eyebrows at the inaugural University of Queensland Federation Fellows Public Lecture in Brisbane last

that is the highest risk species are not necessarily the species we work on. (It is) an economically rational allocation of funds to maximize final outcome given fixed resources. Possingham had said the conservation industry did not have the training in applied maths and economics to make good decisions. Universities should offer masters in
month. He had told the audience his proposal represented an unpalatable proof of triage; quantitative wildlife management, he had said. Its hard to convince people in first year that maths is relevant but by third year they realize that all of science is quantitative. Saving condor cost $US20 million: Possingham, professor of mathematics in the spatial ecology group at the University of Queensland, said: The Californian condor has been recovered from the brink of extinction, but it cost $US1O million to $US20 million. That $20 million could have been used to secure large tracts of rainforest to save hundreds of species. We hand out our money to the

We spend a lot of money saving the basket cases but while youre doing that all the things that arent basket cases become basket cases. Costefficiency decision: Possingham, whose background is in applied mathematics and biochemistry, said it was a cost-efficiency decision. Lose another species of beetle or grasshopper and the cost would be low. But the cassowary, the giant flightless bird of the far north Queensland rainforests, was worth saving. If they go extinct,
species that are most likely to go extinct and we ignore the cost. He said that took away the money that could be spent on others. the forests of far north Queensland will change forever because the cassowaries disperse the seeds of a whole range of trees and they might diminish, he said. And for every tree, theres probably 20 species of insect. It would cause an extinction cascade of 100 to 1000 other species.>

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EXT 1NC 3: No warming

CO2 studies cant be replicated in the real world
Krner et al, 2007
professor of botany at University Basel [Christian, also Jack Morgan, plant physiologist at USDA and faculty member in the Crops and Soils Department at Colorado State University, and Richard Norby, researcher in the Environmental Sciences Division at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, CO2 Fertilization: When, Where, How Much?, p. 10]

All together these interdependencies are making predictions of the biospheres overall response to elevated CO2 far more difficult than was thought initially in view of the straightforward photosynthetic CO2 response of leaves. The experimental evidence exemplified here, points at the need to reconsider the largely source activity dominated model parameterisation and to account for the constraints to carbon sink activity. Using current atmospheric carbon relations, Schimel et al. (2001) find the biosphere roughly in balance, i.e., deforestation being balanced by new C-fixation, part of which is due to forest expansion, hence leaving a much smaller leeway for CO2-driven C-sequestration compared to what was anticipated during the 1980s. In contrast to theoretical models, experiments are limited in space and time, and manipulations may disrupt ecosystem processes and thus, can create artifacts, though directions of responses are commonly still identified correctly in such situations (Norby et al. 1999). A major limitation, however, is that more than 80% of the Earths life biomass is stored in wood, but trees are too big to be studied in conventional test systems, and it is nearly impossible to put a mature forest into an enclosure. Free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) at such scales entails exorbitant costs, so that tests remained restricted to a few places and mostly fairly young trees. FACE refers to a
CO2-release system that does not need any enclosures, but freely releases (controlled by a computer in connection with an infrared gas analyser) CO2 over test plots. The situation is far better for grassland and agricultural crops, where the low stature vegetation permits smaller CO2-enrichment plots and where enclosures create fewer artifacts. In this summary we will highlight what we think were major achievements during the last decade and we will restrict our considerations to the most realistic field tests, largely but not exclusively, using free air CO2 enrichment in situ. Given the urgent need for forest data, these will receive particular attention. We will not re-

Whether a measured biomass gain under a step increase of CO2 and otherwise unchanged life conditions reflects a change which might be seen in the real world, depends on three factors: time, nutrients and water. In addition, global change factors in the real, future world like temperature change (apart from effects on water, see Norby et al. 2007, Chap. 3 of this volume), light (change in cloudiness), and biotic interactions, will co-determine CO2 effects. There have been few attempts at deciphering such interactions under realistic test conditions (see e.g., Rawson 1992; Shaw et al. 2002; Vonder et al. 2004; Wan et al. 2004) and the answers so far are inconclusive, with no clear interactive effect (Pendall et al. 2004). The general impact of a warming climate on the carbon balance of ecosystems will be dealt with elsewhere in this volume (Norby et al. 2007,
review this vast field, but will try to illustrate the major lines of evidence and future needs in this arena of global change research. 2.2 Long-Term Biomass Responses and Carbon Pools Chap. 3 of this volume). We will, however, refer to the significance of interactions between CO2 and light for tree seedlings and lianas in shaded habitats.

Empirically denied: no catastrophe now. IDSO & IDSO (Climatologist, ASU & Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide & Global Change) 02 [Dr. Keith & Dr. Craig Energy, Carbon Dioxide and Earth's Future: Pursuing the Prudent Path, http://co2science.org/about/position/energy.htm //WNDI03]
In the case of the climate models, on the other hand, all one needs to do to discover their inadequacies is compare their predictions with the reality of the recent past.

Even though the world has warmed substantially during the period of the industrialization of the planet - due to who-knows-what (for it cannot be proven that the contemporaneous rise in atmospheric CO2 was responsible for the warming) - none of the environmental catastrophes that are supposed to accompany that warming, according to the climate models, has come to pass. Warming hasnt increased since 1940: no impact. Singer 1998 [S Fred, Singer; professor emeritus of Environmental Energy, member of Energy Policies Study Center; Hot Talk Cold Science-36-37- published by The Independent Institute 1998// UW ef] GHG concentrations have already gone halfway towards a CO2 equivalent doubling, mainly in the past 50 years. But the climate record shows no commensurate warming since 1940. The JPCC attempts to explain the disagreement between the temperature record and Gil theory by invoking a cooling from man-made aerosols that cancels some of the warming. The realization that the aerosol mechanism cannot bridge the difference between theory and observation and that current climate models are deficient and cannot be relied on to predict future warming will be examined later in this volume. Nevertheless, some modest future warming should not be ruled out. Its impact will, on the whole, be beneficial for agriculture and other human activities. Even the muchfeared sea-level rise may turn are to be a nonproblem.

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EXT 1NC 4: Warming Inevitable Warming inevitable time scales prove IPCC 7 (a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), 2007, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessmentreport/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf) LL
Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the time scales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if GHG concentrations were to be stabilised . {3.2.3} Estimated long-term (multi-century) warming corresponding to the six AR4 Working Group III stabilisation categories is shown in Figure SPM.8. Contraction of the Greenland ice sheet is projected to continue to contribute to sea level rise after 2100. Current models suggest virtually complete elimination of the Greenland ice sheet and a resulting contribution to sea level rise of about
7m if global average warming were sustained for millennia in excess of 1.9 to 4.6C relative to pre-industrial values. The corresponding future temperatures in Greenland are comparable to those inferred for the last interglacial period 125,000 years ago, when palaeoclimatic information suggests reductions of polar land ice extent and 4 to 6m of sea level rise. {3.2.3}

Too late plan wont be able to solve in time Alleyne 9 (Richard, Telegraph Science Correspondent, Mar 29, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/5244246/World-unlikely-to-stop-global-warming-reaching-criticallevels.html) LL
Two studies

on climate change have concluded that rises in global temperatures are unlikely to remain below a critical threshold deemed by the world's governments to be safe. Policy-makers have adopted a goal of keeping the average global rise in surface temperatures to no more than 3.6F (2C) above pre-industrial revolution levels. This will mean stabilising CO2 emissions immediately and then substantially after 2015 to avoid the kind of levels in the atmosphere which will accelerate global warming. But two studies from Oxford University and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research, published in Nature, claim that current levels of carbon emission actually increasing at three per cent a year will mean the temperature rise will be exceeded. There is now only a 50 per cent chance of avoiding it even if drastic measures are
taken. Rises above 3.6F (2C) are expected to lead to deforestation, flooding and droughts across the world. Dr Vicky Pope, Head of Climate Change Advice at the Met Office, said: "Even with drastic cuts in emissions in the next 10 years, our results project that there will only be around a 50 per cent chance of keeping global temperatures rises below 3.6F (2 C). "This idealised emissions scenario is based on emissions peaking in 2015 and quickly changing from an increase of 23 per cent per year to a decrease of 3 per cent per year. For every 10 years we delay action another 0.9F (0.5C) will be added to the most likely temperature rise." Meanwhile a separate study by the UK Energy Research Centre found meeting the target to cut greenhouse emissions by 80 per cent by 2050 will cost around 17 billion a year, or around 700 on the average electricity bill by 2050.

EXT 1NC 5: No impact

And, adaptation sovles the impact empirically proven Michaels 2007
(Patrick, Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies @ Cato and Prof. Environmental Sciences @ UVA, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Global Warming: No Urgent Danger; No Quick Fix, 8-21, http://cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=8651)

We certainly adapted to 0.8 C temperature change quite well in the 20th century, as life expectancy doubled and some crop yields quintupled. And who knows what new and miraculously efficient power sources will develop in the next hundred years. The stories about the ocean rising 20 feet as massive amounts of ice slide off of Greenland by 2100 are also fiction. For the entire half century from 1915 through 1965, Greenland was significantly warmer than it has been for the last decade. There was no disaster. More important, there's a large body of evidence that for much of the period from 3,000 to 9,000 years ago, at least the Eurasian Arctic was 2.5 C to 7 C warmer than now in the summer, when ice melts. Greenland's ice didn't disappear then, either. Then there is the topic of
interest this time of year hurricanes. Will hurricanes become stronger or more frequent because of warming? My own work suggests that late in the 21st century there might be an increase in strong storms, but that it will be very hard to detect because of year-to-year variability. Right now, after accounting for increasing coastal population and property values, there is no increase in damages caused by these killers. The biggest of them all was the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. If it occurred today, it would easily cause twice as much damage as 2005's vaunted Hurricane Katrina. So let's get real and give the politically incorrect answers to global warming's inconvenient questions. about it.

Global warming is real, but it does not portend immediate disaster, and there's currently no suite of technologies that can do much The obvious solution is to forgo costs today on ineffective attempts to stop it, and to save our money for investment in future technologies and inevitable adaptation.

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Warming Offense 1/2 NO LINK AND TURN: ORGANISMS READILY ADAPTING, WARMING INCREASING RANGE AND THUS LOWERING EXTINCTION RISKS IDSO et al. (PhDs) 03 [Sherwood B., with Craig D. & Keith E. Idos, The Specter of Species Extinction: Will Global Warming Decimate Earths
Biosphere? Marshal Institute, Science for Better Public policy, www.marshall.org/pdf/materials/150.pdf //wndi03] Are significant impacts of global warming already discernable in animal and plant populations, as Root et al. claim? Is

climate change already affecting living systems, as Parmesan and Yohe contend? The answer to both of these questions in many but not all of the cases they cite is a definite yes. Much of the biosphere has indeed responded to the global warming of the past century and a half that has transformed what we have come to call the Little Ice Age into what can now be called the Modern Warm Period. But it has not we repeat not brought us to the verge of biospheric disintegration, as the worlds climate alarmists would have everyone believe. In fact, it has done just the opposite, aided in no small part by the concomitant rise in the airs CO2 content. To substantiate this fact, ironically, we need
look no further than to the very papers that are used by Root et al. and Parmesan and Yohe to suggest, as Root has claimed, that were sitting at the edge of a mass extinction. And when we do, we find that the studies they cite do not imply anything of the kind. It

is true that some species of plants and animals have indeed moved poleward and upward in response to 19th and 20th century warming; but they have not been forced to do so. The poleward and upward extensions of the cold limited boundaries of these species ranges have been opportunistic movements, movements that have enabled them to inhabit regions that previously were too cold for them. But where it has been predicted that species would either be compelled to move towards cooler regions or suffer death, i.e., at the heat-limited boundaries of their ranges, they have in many instances, if not most instances, succumbed to neither alternative. As a result, instead of suffering range contractions, indicative of advancement towards extinction, these species have experienced range expansions, indicative of a propensity to avoid extinction. We note also, with respect to latitudinal movements, that it is not necessary for the heat-limited boundary of a species range to remain totally stationary for the CO2- induced global warming extinction hypothesis to be found null and void. If the heatlimited boundary merely moves slower than the coldlimited boundary in response to an increase in temperature, a range expansion will occur that makes extinction even less likely than it was before the warming occurred. What is more, the viability of species in a warming world can be maintained by relaxing even this condition; for if a species heat-limited boundary moves at the same speed as its cold-limited boundary, its range size will remain fairly constant (depending upon local geographical constraints, of course), which also precludes the possibility of extinction. In fact, if the cold-limited and heatlimited boundaries of a species range are widely separated, as in the case of the butterfly studied by Parmesan (1996), even if the heat-limited boundary were to move faster than the cold-limited boundary, the large temperature difference between the two boundaries would prevent the heat-limited boundary from ever merging with the cold-limited boundary for the degree of warming that would be likely to occur in the real world. Hence, there is currently not the slightest shred of evidence that what is already discernable in animal and plant populations, in the words of Root et al., and already affecting living systems, in the words of Parmesan and Yohe, portends the eminent or even fardistant extinction of a single species of plant or animal. Unchecked rise of CO2 is essential to avert destruction of the biosphere Idso and Idso 01 President; and Vice President of Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change [Sherwood and Keith, The Importance of Knowledge to Environmental Policy, CO2 Science Magazine, May 2, http://www.co2science.org/edit/v4_edit/v4n18edit.htm]
Clearly, the hearts of these gentlemen are in the right place; but without a knowledge of all the pertinent facts, their prescription for the planet could well be way off base and, in fact, prove our downfall ... and that of the rest of the biosphere as well. It thus behooves us to seriously consider the findings of Tilman et al. (2001), reported just four days later in the pages of Science, which Leo and Gergen had obviously not the advantage of seeing when they composed their essays. In an analysis of the global environmental impacts of agricultural expansion that will likely occur over the next 50 years, which was based upon projected increases in population and concomitant advances in technological expertise, the group of ten respected researchers concluded that the

task of meeting the doubled global food demand they 8

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calculated to exist in the year 2050 will

likely exact an environmental toll that "may rival climate change in environmental and societal impacts." What are the specific problems? For starters, Tilman and his colleagues note that "humans currently appropriate more than a third of the production of terrestrial ecosystems and about half of usable freshwaters, have doubled terrestrial nitrogen supply and phosphorus liberation, have manufactured and released globally significant quantities of pesticides, and have initiated a major extinction event." Now, think of doubling those figures. In fact, do even more; for the scientists calculate global nitrogen fertilization and pesticide production will likely rise by a factor of 2.7 by the year 2050. In terms of land devoted to agriculture, they calculate a less ominous 18% increase over the present. However, because developed countries are expected to withdraw large areas of land from farming over the next 50 years, the net loss of natural ecosystems to cropland and pasture in developing countries will amount to about half of all potentially suitable remaining land, which would, in the words of Tilman et al., "represent the worldwide loss of natural ecosystems larger than the United States." Looking at it another way, the scientists say this phenomenon "could lead to the loss of about a third of remaining tropical and temperate forests, savannas, and grasslands." And in a worrisome reflection upon the consequences of these
changes in land use for global biodiversity, they note that "species extinction is an irreversible impact of habitat destruction." These findings should come as no surprise to readers of CO2 Science Magazine, for we have dealt with them editorially many times (1 Oct 1999, 1 Feb 2000, 15 Nov 2000, 21 Feb 2001). Hence, we are in full agreement with Tilman et al. when they say "an environmentally sustainable revolution, a greener revolution, is needed." In fact, something

far above humanitys normal ability to devise and execute will be required to avert the impending catastrophe; for as Tilman and
his associates rightly conclude, "even the best available technologies, fully deployed, cannot prevent many of the forecasted problems." Here, then, is the real and truly inescapable problem facing the world and every living thing therein: where will we find the food and water needed to sustain our growing populations? We are going to need much more of both of these precious commodities if we are ever going to make it through even the first half of the current century without self-destructing and taking most of the rest of the biosphere with us. So we ask Mr. Leo and Mr. Gergen the very same questions they posed in their essays. Do you "care about saving the planet" and doing those things that will not "darken the prospects for mankind"? If you were sincere in your writing, and we believe you were, you will carefully consider a fact that is hardly ever mentioned in the international debate over anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and that is, that if

there is any one thing that is known about carbon dioxide and global change with any certainty, it is that more CO2 in the air substantially enhances the growth of plants and the efficiency with which they utilize water. Doubling the atmospheres CO2 concentration, for example, typically increases crop productivity by 30 to 40%, while it increases plant water use efficiency even more, making it possible to produce considerably greater quantities of food with little to no increase in the amount of water used. And in natural ecosystems, where water and other resources are often limiting, the positive effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment can be even larger. The enormity of the environmental problems we will surely face in trying to feed the world of tomorrow including our children and grandchildren and all the rest of the biosphere demands that we ask ourselves if we are ready to "risk the environment," as Mr. Gergen puts it, by
using up nearly every bit of land and water on the face of the globe to meet caloric and nutritional needs, while polluting the rest of the planet and leaving next to nothing of value for nature, or if we will stubbornly take an "unnatural stand," as Mr. Leo describes it, and not allow

the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 concentration to continue to bring about the only "environmentally sustainable revolution," to borrow an appropriate phrase from Tilman and company, that can go above and beyond what mans technological genius has the capacity to do and provide the extra productivity and efficiency edge the biosphere will surely need to meet the food security challenges of the coming half-century. Industrialized societys "exhalations" of carbon dioxide are truly a godsend; for if we will let
them, they can be the basis of Tilman et al.s "greener revolution." Its as natural as breathing; and for vegetation, thats exactly what it is. Through the pores in their leaves, earths plants breathe in the CO2 humanity releases to the atmosphere and it becomes the basic building block of everything they produce. Ask your children about the process. They learn it in grade school. Plants love CO2. Its good for them. And whats good for plants is good for everything else, humankind included. In the end, however much we may try to ignore these facts, we cannot deny that we possess this knowledge. And we now possess the additional knowledge that we desperately need what more

CO2 can do for us, that its absolutely essential, in fact, to avert a catastrophic breakdown of the biosphere over the next half-century, as we reported for the first time last year in Technology (Idso and Idso, 2000) see our Journal Review Will
There Be Enough Food? and as Tilman et al. have now confirmed in Science. And having this knowledge, we are morally obligated to act upon it. Mr. Gergen says "strong leaders must summon us to the mountaintop." He is right. But we must know what mountain to climb, and thats where a knowledge of the pertinent facts becomes so important; for if we cannot see the truth, as the proverb rightly says, "where there is no vision, the people perish." And if

we turn our backs on carbon dioxide, which could truly be a savior for the planet, and crucify CO2 upon the cross of a counterfeit and misguided environmentalism, the people of the earth will do just that, they will perish, and not many years hence.

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Extension: Warming Good: Biodiv INCREASED PLANT GROWTH FROM C02 INCREASES ANIMALS, BOOSTING BIODIVERISTY IDSO & IDSO (Climatologist, ASU & Pres., Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide & Global Change) 7/4/01 [Dr. Keith & Dr. Sherwood B., Carbon Dioxide and Global Environmental Change: The Proper Roles of Reason and Religion in Developing Policies Related to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions, http://www.co2science.org/edit/v4_edit/v4n27edit.htm //WNDI03]
In light of these well-documented observations of the many direct beneficial effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment on earths plant life (most of which are proven, but some of which are still conjectural), the

assumption that the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content is undesirable would appear at this stage of the analysis, at least to be fully one hundred and eighty degrees out of phase with reality. And so it likely is, for with less CO2 in the air than the air holds now, plants do not grow nearly as well as they do currently; while with more CO2 in the air, they generally grow much better. In addition, with higher levels of plant productivity, greater populations of animals can be sustained, which helps to promote ecosystem biodiversity,
since for each species there is a certain "critical biomass" that must be maintained to preserve its specific identity.

WARMING EXPANDS TROPICS AND PLANT PRODUCTIVITY, BOOSTING BIODIVERSITY MOORE (Cato Institute & Sr. Fellow, Hoover Institution) 98 [Thomas Gale, Climate of Fear: Why We Shouldnt Worry about Global Warming, //wndi03]
Current evidence suggests the opposite. Several scientists have recently reported an increase from 1981 to 1991 in plant growth in the northern high latitudes (Myneni et al. 1997). More

vigorous plant development, while possibly choking out a few species, provides a more plentiful habitat for animals. Similar reports have originated in Australia where researchers have found that warmer weather, more rainfall, and perhaps greater CO2 have led to bumper crops (Nicholls 1997). In this connection one should note that the IPCC has postponed and lowered its predicted warming of 4.5F by 2040 to 3.6 by 2100 A.D., indicating that climate change will be considerably more gradual than believed previously. The evidence of greater growth in fauna, together with the lengthening of the period of any warming, suggests that fears of extinction of major species are overblown. Moreover, biodiversity appears to be greatest in the tropics. Warm wet areas are more congenial toward species proliferation than are the temperate zones. Climate change is most likely to increase that portion of the globe that is moist and hot, thus increasing the potential habitat for many species. Plants and animals that have adapted to temperate or cold climates can move toward the poles. While cold climates are not devoid of animals and plants, the more frigid the climate, the more desert-like is the region, with only a small number of individual species. Antarctica is virtually free of plants and only a very few animals can withstand the rigors of that climate. A warmer, wetter world, therefore, is more likely to promote biodiversity than to destroy it.

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Warming Good Extension: CO2 Fertilization And the Impact is MASSIVE POPULATION-INDUCED FAMINE IDSO (PhD, Univ. of MN & former Dept. of Agriculture scientist) 11/1/2k [Sherwood B., Dramatic Will There Be Enough Food, CO2 Science Magazine, v. 4 n. 9, Cites CD Idso and KE Idso. Forecasting world food supplies: the impact of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. Technology 7S : 33-56]
Background As the world's population continues to climb, there is increasing concern about the sustainability or carrying capacity of the planet; and in making decisions about long-term research and development policies, movers and shakers from many sectors of the global economy need to know if there will be sufficient food fifty years from now to sustain the projected population of the globe. After all, it is only prudent that we attempt to gain such insight into the human condition (see our Editorial: Prudence Misapplied), for we all have a stake in the future progression of man and womankind. What was done The

authors developed and analyzed a supply-and-demand scenario for food in the year 2050. Specifically, they identified the plants that currently supply 95% of the world's food needs and projected historical trends in the productivities of these crops 50 years into the future. They also evaluated the growth-enhancing effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment on these plants and made similar yield projections based on the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration likely to have occurred by that future date. What was learned The authors determined that the world population will likely be 51% greater in the year 2050 than it was in 1998, but that world food production will be only 37% greater if its enhanced productivity comes solely as a consequence of anticipated improvements in agricultural technology and expertise. However, they further determined that the consequent shortfall in farm production can be overcome - but just barely - by the additional benefits anticipated to accrue from the aerial fertilization effect of the expected rise in the air's CO2 content, assuming no Kyoto-style cutbacks in anthropogenic CO2 emissions. What it means In order to avoid the unpalatable consequences of widespread hunger in the decades ahead - as though there were not enough of it already - it would appear to be necessary to allow the air's CO2 concentration to rise at an unrestricted rate. Consequently, efforts designed to discourage CO2 emissions are seen in this light to be inimical to our future well-being, as well as that of generations yet unborn. SCARCITY INDUCED ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE DWARFS ANY POTENTIAL WARMING IMPACTS IDSO & IDSO (Climatologist, ASU & Pres., Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide & Global Change) 10/17/01 [Dr. Keith & Dr. Sherwood B., There Are Bigger Environmental Fish to Fry Than Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions, http://co2science.org/edit/v4_edit/v4n42edit.htm htm //WNDI03] In concluding his insightful treatise, Kite declares that "environmental degradation is a far more serious problem than possible climate change," and that it will, if not corrected, "have far greater impacts in a much shorter time." Again, we
certainly agree, having highlighted the overarching problem of providing sufficient food - and the land and water needed to produce that food (which often are obtained at the expense of nature) - for the burgeoning human population of the planet, which is a concern that simply dwarfs the highly-hyped climate change scenario of the IPCC and its political allies (see, for example, our Editorials of 21 February 2001 and 13 June 2001). Hence ,

we renew our plea for greater consideration of these far more certain problems, rather than continuing the business-as-usual approach of spinning our wheels and squandering precious resources that are, in the words of Kite, "currently devoted to impact analyses of uncertain and probably imaginary climate changes." AGRICULTURE ADAPTS EASILY WITTWER (Dir., Agricultural Experiment Station, Michigan State Univ.) 95 [Sylvan, Food, Climate and Carbon Dioxide: The Global Environment and World Food Production, p. 8] The prospects of climate changes from increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide do not frighten many agriculturists, farmers, and foresters. We will suggest that agriculture and its national and international research establishments can cope with, and perhaps even improve during climatic change. History has demonstrated agricultural resilience to change. The rapidity of agricultural change is also well documented. The adaptability of agriculture can be measured historically. Reassurance of resiliency of agriculture and forestry to projected climate changes can be drawn from the present geographic range of major food crops, forest trees, and climate analogs of the past. The surety of climate variability and possible climate change, CO2 induced or otherwise, should force major research initiatives using genetic resources and management practices to alleviate climatic stresses and improve renewable resource productivity. 11

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1) Squo political and economic predictions are accurate Wolfers 7 [Justin, Assistant Professor of Business and Public Policy at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, Best Bet for Next President: Prediction
Markets, December 31, Wall Street Journal, http://bpp.wharton.upenn.edu/jwolfers/Press/WSJcolumn/1-Best%20Bet%20for%20Next%20President.pdf]

As the 2008 presidential race heats up, voters are overwhelmed by a flood of new data: Who is ahead in the polls? Who is winning the "money race"? How are the dynamics of the race likely to respond as the candidates tack left and right, advertising strategies change, and we learn whose Web site is drawing more eyeballs? Political prediction markets provide us -- the consumers of this information -- with a way to cut through this clutter. A prediction market is a bit like the stock
market, except that you are buying shares whose value depends on the success of a political candidate, rather than the profits earned by a corporation. And just as stock prices are a useful barometer of the health of a company, so too the price of a prediction contract is a barometer of the health of a political campaign. Alternatively, for those schooled on the Strip rather than the Street, prediction markets allow you to bet on the election, just as

It is the accuracy of marketgenerated forecasts that led the Department of Defense to propose running prediction markets on geopolitical events. While political rhetoric about "terrorism futures" led the plug to be pulled on that particular experiment, the original insight -- that markets can help make sense of vast amounts of disparate information-- remains valid. Experimental prediction markets were established at the University of Iowa in 1988, and they have since amassed a very impressive record, repeatedly outperforming the polls. Research by economic
Vegas bookies allow you to bet on a football game. And the uncanny ability of the betting line to predict football outcomes also holds in the political domain. historians has documented betting on elections over a century ago, and the impressive forecasting record of prediction markets was also evident in the period before scientific polling was adopted. More recently, in the 2004

prediction markets pointed to the disintegration of Howard Dean's candidacy in advance of the fateful Iowa caucuses. In the 2004 presidential election, the market favorite won the Electoral College in all fifty states; in 2006 the markets also picked every Senate race. How do these markets work? Right now,
primaries, you can buy a $1 bill for 44 cents; the only catch is that you only get the $1 if Hillary Clinton is our next President. The fact that this $1 bill is selling for 44 cents tells us that "the market" believes her to have a 44% chance of winning the presidency, a number that has risen sharply as she has become more likely to win the Democratic nomination. Interestingly,

prediction markets have long suggested a

strong showing for Ms. Clinton, even as popular commentators had earlier dismissed her as unelectable, much as they did prior to her successful New York senate race in 2000. In a truly efficient prediction
market, the price will come to reflect the influence of all available information. For instance, those discouraged by Ms. Clinton's recent polling in New Hampshire are probably selling, while those who believe endorsements by the Iowa Register are crucial are buying; Ms. Clinton's campaign to increase her likeability may lead some to buy, while recent mis-steps by her campaign may lead others to sell. Economists influenced by the possibility of a recession are buying various Democrats, while political scientists schooled in the incumbency advantage are probably buying Republicans. Through this process of different people trading based on their own observations

prediction markets prices come to aggregate disparate pieces of information into a single summary measure of the likelihood of various outcomes. Moreover, if this market operates efficiently, it will appropriately summarize all of this information and the price will become the most statistically accurate forecast of the election outcome. Two other characteristics also distinguish prediction markets. First, they respond to all sorts of news beyond shifts in public opinion, including changes in campaign staff, political re-positioning, and performance on the trail. Second, prediction markets are forward-looking, while polls are often backward-looking. For instance, Fred Thompson continues to do well in
aboutthe race, national polls largely due to name recognition, while prediction markets have discounted this advantage, understanding that candidates like Mike Huckabee will become better known through the campaign. Indeed the markets currently believe that Mr. Thompson is less likely to win the Republican nomination than fringe candidate Ron Paul. Beyond Mr. Thompson, polling data for Republican candidates is much more consistent with the

The markets predicted Mr. Huckabee's surge a few weeks before the polls, and it appears to have come at the expense of Mr. Romney. The big
markets, suggesting a four-way race in which Messrs. Giuliani and Romney are the leading candidates, with Messrs. McCain and Huckabee not too far behind. story this week, though, is John McCain, who has resurrected his campaign. The market now judges him to be a clearly credible alternative.

2) Claims that neoliberalism is the root cause of social ills is fear-mongering and based on flawed worldviews Ams & Forbes 11/03/09 [ELIZABETH AMES is founder of BOLDE Communications, which advises corporate and individual clients on communications
strategies AND Steve Forbes, How Capitalism Will Save Us, http://www.forbes.com/2009/11/03/capitalism-greed-recession-forbes-opinions-markets.html]

We all know the Rap on capitalism: That it is fundamentally greedy and immoral. That it enables the rich to get richer at the expense of the poor. That open markets are Darwinian places where the most ruthless unfairly crush smaller competitors and where the cost of vital products and services like health care and energy are almost beyond the reach of those who need them. Capitalism has also been blamed for a range of social ills--from air pollution to obesity. Not only have educated, successful people bought into capitalism's bad Rap, but the Rap is taught in our schools. It has molded the thinking and analyses of our most influential opinion leaders, writers, thinkers, and policy makers of both political parties. Long before the stock
market meltdown, before AIG executives and automotive CEOs were being tarred and feathered by Congress, Democrats and Republicans alike regularly blamed "overpaid" executives and "Wall Street greed" for the problems ailing America's economy. Antibusiness bias has long been rampant at our top universities, where Marx occupies iconic stature, where free-market

thinkers are seldom taught--and where careers in nonprofit sectors like academia or the arts are widely regarded as morally superior to those in "money-grubbing" private industry. The Rap is pervasive in
the entertainment industry. Scheming business executives are a favorite villain in the story lines of television and motion pictures--ranging from films like Erin Brockovich to TV programs like Dirty Sexy Money. Even some of capitalism's leading beneficiaries have bought into the Rap. Warren Buffett, number two on the 2009 annual Forbes list of world billionaires, has asserted that his wealth as the world's most successful investor is "disproportionate." At the World Economic Forum in 2008, Bill Gates called for, in the words of the Wall Street Journal, a "revision of capitalism." Gates told reporter Robert Guth that he believed that the fruits of

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capitalism--i.e., advances in areas such as health care, technology, and education--were not reaching the world's poor and primarily helped the rich. Capitalism's

bad Rap has helped to shape a lot of bad economic policy. People who believe it look to government to "create jobs," whereas the most powerful job-creating machine has always been the private sector. They believe that the best way to
generate more revenues for government is through raising taxes on the so-called rich and on "profit-hungry" corporations. Yet history shows, time and again, that

punishing the entrepreneurs and businesses that create jobs and capital is a sure route to economic devastation,
while lowering taxes--not with one-shot reductions that politicians like, but by substantially cutting rates--is always the best economic stimulus. Thanks to capitalism's bad rap, people bash big private-sector companies like Wal-Mart for supposedly excessive "market power," while they are blind to the massive market power of government and its role in today's economic disasters. The two biggest examples: the central role of government-created mortgage behemoths Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the subprime-mortgage meltdown and financial crisis and the mammoth impact of giant government insurers Medicare and Medicaid in shaping today's dysfunctional health-care market. Partly because of the Rap on capitalism, many people today are convinced that the way to economic health is protectionist policies that supposedly preserve jobs--when such policies have been shown, not only in the United States, but in nations around the globe, to be job killers. The emotionally charged rhetoric of the Rap has precluded a clear-eyed understanding of the fundamental principles of economic behavior. People don't understand, for example, how markets work in the Real World or, for that matter, how wealth is created. They

believe "wealth" is solely something "greedy" rich people make for themselves--when it is also the source of the capital that is invested in new businesses that create jobs. The drumbeat against "greed" and "free markets" on the part of the media and politicians has also served to prevent a clear understanding of just what really constitutes a "free" market. Thus, people blame capitalism for economic disasters such as the mortgage meltdown and the astronomical cost of health insurance--when they have in fact been caused by government not allowing markets to function. Because of the Rap, people are blind to the Reality--that far from having failed, democratic capitalism is the world's greatest economic success story. No other system has improved the lives of so many people. The turmoil of the past few years by no means mitigates the explosion of prosperity that has taken place since the early 1980s, when President
Ronald Reagan enacted promarket reforms to free the economy from the Carter-Nixon stagnation of the 1970s. Those reforms--lowering tax rates and loosening regulations--unleashed job-creating capital. The result: a roaring economy that produced a flood of innovations--from personal computers and cellular phones to the Internet. Indeed, we may one day look back on the period of 1982 to 2007 as an economic golden age. Many conveniences we take for granted today--from automatic teller machines and DVD players to home computers and CAT scans--did not exist or were not widely used as recently as the 1970s and early '80s. It's not just that we have more and better gizmos. All you have to do is watch an old movie from the 1970s. Even when the past is glamorized by Hollywood, it's obvious--looking at everything from appliances to cars to homes--that living standards back then were lower. We've come a long way. Not only "the rich" but people of all incomes today are doing better. No system has been as effective as capitalism in turning scarcity into abundance. Think of computers. Forty years ago, only business and government could afford the old massive mainframes. A single machine filled an entire room. Today the BlackBerry device in the palm of your hand has even more computing power than those old machines. Thanks to capitalism, Americans as a nation are living dramatically better and longer than they did at the beginning of the twentieth century. In The Greatest Century That Ever Was: 25 Miraculous Trends of the Past 100 Years, noted economist Stephen Moore and the late business professor Julian Simon make the powerful observation that since the early twentieth century, life expectancy has increased; infant mortality rates have fallen tenfold. Major killer diseases--from tuberculosis to polio, typhoid, and pneumonia--have in most parts of the world been, if not eradicated, drastically reduced; agricultural productivity has soared. The environment is also cleaner in many parts of the world. Air quality has improved about 30 percent in American cities since 1977. Not only that, Moore and Simon write, "the affordability and availability of consumer goods have greatly increased. Even most poor Americans have a cornucopia of choices that a century ago the Rockefellers and the Vanderbilts could not have purchased." Until the credit crisis, tens of millions of people a year worldwide were joining the middle class. Between 2003 and 2007, the growth of the American economy alone exceeded the size of the entire Chinese economy. We grew the equivalent of China in four and a half years. China's growth rates are higher--but they're coming from a much smaller base. Free-market

economic reforms--especially since the fall of the Berlin wall--have brought an unprecedented explosion of wealth to India,
China, Brazil, and nations in central and eastern Europe as well as in Latin America and Africa. Capitalism has helped to usher in an era of wealth and economic growth that failed foreign-aid programs since World War II were never able to accomplish. In China, for example, over two hundred million people now have discretionary income. The country has a burgeoning middle class. The current recession should be seen historically as an interruption, not an end, of this extraordinary economic expansion. Along with bringing prosperity to millions, democratic

capitalism has undermined political tyranny and promoted democracy and peace between nations of the world. It is, without doubt, the world's most moral system. This last
statement may raise eyebrows in an era that has seen scandals from the collapse of Enron to the devastation of personal and charitable wealth caused by Bernard Madoff. That is not to minimize the crimes of individuals like Madoff and others or the damage they cause. As we explain, the off-the-charts criminality of individuals like Madoff no more reflects the immorality of free enterprise than the murderous crimes of a Ted Bundy or a Jeffrey Dahmer reflect a fundamental breakdown of democratic society. Democratic capitalism, as a system, is more humane than government-dominated economies, including those in countries that are otherwise democracies. Nations

that liberalize their economies, that allow people greater economic self-determination, end up moving, sooner or later, toward democracy. Since the nations of the world began to liberalize their economies in the mid-1980s, the percentage of
democratically elected governments has surged from 40 percent to more than 60 percent today. China, for example, is not yet a Western-style democracy. But the nation is freer today than it was during the era of Mao Tse Tung and the repressive Cultural Revolution. Despite

all the gloom and doom voiced by its critics, the free-enterprise system is--and has always been--the best way to unleash the creativity, inventiveness, and energy of people and mobilize them to meet the wants and needs of others. That's because free-market transactions, far from being driven by greed, are about achieving the greatest possible mutual benefit, not only for the parties directly involved but eventually for the rest of society. 13

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3) Modern democracy checks biopolitical genocide OKane 97 [Modernity, the Holocaust, and politics, Economy and Society, February, ebsco] Chosen policies cannot be relegated to the position of immediate condition (Nazis in power) in the explanation of the Holocaust. Modern bureaucracy is not intrinsically capable of genocidal action (Bauman 1989: 106). Centralized state coercion has no natural move to terror. In the explanation of modern genocides it is chosen policies which play the greatest part, whether in effecting bureaucratic secrecy, organizing forced labour, implementing a system of terror, harnessing science and technology or introducing extermination policies, as means and as ends. As Nazi Germany and Stalins USSR have shown, furthermore, those chosen policies of genocidal government turned away from and not towards modernity. The choosing of policies, however, is not independent of circumstances. An analysis of the history of each case plays an important part in explaining where and how
genocidal governments come to power and analysis of political institutions and structures also helps towards an understanding of the factors which act as obstacles to modern genocide. But it is not just political factors which

Modern societies have not only pluralist democratic political systems but also economic pluralism where workers are free to change jobs and bargain wages and where independent firms, each with their own independent bureaucracies, exist in competition with state-controlled enterprises. In modern societies this economic pluralism both promotes and is served by the open
stand in the way of another Holocaust in modern society. scientific method. By ignoring competition and the capacity for people to move between organizations whether economic, polit ical, scientific or social, Bauman overlooks crucial but also very ordinary and common attributes of truly modern societies.

It is these very ordinary and common attributes of modernity which stand in the way of modern

genocides.

4) Neoliberalism prevents war. ONLY in the absence of free trade, or when the government intrudes on the free market, does war become possible.
DiLorenzo, 2000 [Thomas, Professor of Economics Loyola College in Maryland. Trade and the Rise of Freedom. The Mises Institute. http://www.mises.org/story/376]
It has long been recognized by classical liberals that free trade was the most important means of diminishing the likelihood of war . And nothing is more destructive of human freedom than war . War always leads to a permanent enlargement of the state -- and a reduction in human freedom - regardless of who wins. On the eve of the French Revolution many philosophers believed that democracy would put an end to war, for wars were thought to be fought merely to aggrandize and enrich the rulers of Europe. The substitution of representative government for royal despotism was supposed to end warfare once and for all, for the people are not concerned about territorial acquisition through conquest. The French quickly proved this theory wrong, however, for under the leadership of Napoleon they "adopted the most ruthless methods of boundless expansion and annexation . . . ."(7) Thus, it is not democracy that is a safeguard against war but, as the British (classical) Liberals were to recognize, it is free trade. To Richard Cobden and John Bright, the leaders of the British Manchester School, free trade -- both domestically and internationally -- was a necessary prerequisite for the preservation of peace . For in a world of trade and social cooperation, there are no incentives for war and conquest. It is government interference with free trade that is the source of international conflict. Indeed, naval blockades that restrict trade are the ultimate act of war, and have been for centuries. Throughout history, restrictions on trade have proven to be impoverishing and have instigated acts of war motivated by territorial acquisition and plunder as alternatives to peaceful exchange as the means of enhancing living standards. It is no mere coincidence that the 1999 meeting of the World Trade Organization -- a cabal of bureaucrats, politicians, and lobbyists which favors government-controlled trade -- was marked by a week-long riot, protests, and violence. Whenever trade is politicized the result is inevitably conflict that quite often leads, eventually, to military aggression. Mises summarized the relationship between free trade and peace most eloquently when he noted: What distinguishes man from animals is the insight into the advantages that can be derived from cooperation under the division of labor. Man curbs his innate instinct of aggression in order to cooperate with other human beings. The more he wants to improve his material well-being, the more he must expand the system of the division of labor. Concomitantly he must more and more restrict the sphere in which he resorts to military action. ...Such is the laissez-faire philosophy of Manchester.(8) As Frederic Bastiat often said, if goods can't cross borders, armies will. This is a quintessentially American philosophy in that it was the position assumed by George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, and Thomas Paine, among others. A foreign policy based on commerce," wrote Paine in Common Sense, would secure for America "the peace and friendship" of the Continent and allow her to "shake hands with the world -- and trade in any market."(9) Paine -- the philosopher of the American Revolution -- believed that free trade would "temper the human mind," help people to "know and understand each other," and have a "civilizing effect" on everyone involved in it.(10) Trade was seen as "a pacific system, operating to unite mankind be rendering nations, as well as individuals, useful to each other. . . . War can never be in the interest of a trading nation."(11)

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Disasters 1NC Frontline 4/5

5) Cant solve racism: weakness of the black public sphere.
Dawson 2006 (Michael, prof of political science, Univ of Chicago, Du Bois Review (2006), 3: 239-249 AFTER THE DELUGE: Publics and Publicity in Katrina's Wake) More surprising, some might argue, has been the demonstrated weakness of the national Black counterpublic. This weakness has been demonstrated in at least two major ways. First, if we reflect on the data I presented above, it is clear that the interpretive framework of many African Americans according to which the aftermath of Katrina demonstrated the still existing deep racial inequalities in this country, and the government's slow and inept response was due at least in part to racially induced indifference to the victimswas rejected by a majority of White Americans. It is particularly surprising that the proposition that Katrina exposed once again the deep racial inequalities that
plague this nation was rejected, given that at the time of the disaster much of the mainstream media, including CNN, NBC, and the other major networks, explicitly promoted such a framework in much of their coverage. Yet,

by the time our survey entered the field, in late October of 2005, that frame had already been rejected by a majority of Whites. By January of 2006, columnist Cathy Young of the Boston Globe was labeling discussions of the disparate racial impact of Katrina as racial paranoia, while James Taranto of the Wall Street Journal was labeling Black opinion on Katrina as misguided and unhelpful at best. The national Black counterpublic was not powerful enough to insert the framework for analysis that was represented in the overwhelming majority of Black opinion as a legitimate framework for consideration. Michael Warner has argued that Dominant publics are by definition those that can take their discourse pragmatics and their lifeworlds for granted, misrecognizing the indefinite scope of their expansive address as universality or normalcy (Warner 2002, p. 122). But the effect of this misrecognition is that alternative discourses become marginalized and, in this case, have real consequences for the shape of political power and the distribution of life chances in post-Katrina New Orleans. The second way that the weakness of the Black counterpublic was manifested was in its inability to mobilize sufficient political power to influence the rules of the election gameand, as a result, the future shape of the city being rebuilt. But this was not for a lack of sympathy or concern among Blacks, including the Black middle class. Black professional associations raised generous funds, and Black students across the nation
organized to spend their vacation time in rebuilding efforts. However, much of the Black leadership has bought into the neoliberal ideology that defines organizational activity as lobbying, which is built on individualist leadership models and emphasizes civil society as the sole route to group advancement. And, unlike a century ago, the range of contrary voices within the Black counterpublic is more constrained than it has been at any time since the Civil War.

The result is that the ability to mobilize politically is weaker than it has been since World War I.

6) Government is already dedicated to avoiding another Katrina.

Luft 2009 (Rachel E., assistant professor of sociology and women and gender studies at the University of New Orleans, American Quarterly Volume 61, Number 3, September 2009 Beyond Disaster Exceptionalism:
Social Movement Developments in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina)

In New Orleans, in late summer 2008, commemoration of the third anniversary of Hurricane Katrina was punctuated by preparations for Hurricane Gustav. While groups were launching their memorial events, radios and televisions droned steadily as the countdown to Gustav intensified. City, state, and federal officials bridged the three-year span by contextualizing their announcements about the first significant hurricane threat to the city since Katrina, in Katrina itself: Gustav-related city-assisted evacuation plans, status of levee protections, National Guard activation, and shelter availability were framed and assessed with regard to the hurricane events of 2005.1 R. David Paulison, FEMA Administrator, exemplified these tendencies on September 1, 2008, the day Gustav made landfall, and three days after the Katrina anniversary of August 29: Its unprecedented cooperation among all the federal agencies. . . . And what it allows us to do is share information with whats going on so we dont end up with what happened in Katrina. .
. . During Katrina you noticed that buses didnt come in until after the storm hit landfall; urban search and rescue teams didnt come until after landfall; ambulances didnt come until after landfall. All of these things are put in

As the region braced for Gustav, Katrina was remade as a staging ground for what officials promised would be a better coordinated, more humane, and more efficient storm management operation . Whether or not the
place ahead of the storm this time.2 government was as prepared as its self-congratulatory discourse impliedand early assessments were clearly mixedthere was no mistaking the attempt to show that lessons had been learned, systems overhauled, and

State framing of Gustav was as much about Katrina as it was about the impending storm. Government officials were not the only actors to have studied the Katrina events and learned some lessons. Grassroots social justice organizers in New [End Page 499] Orleans
communications improved. and their allies demonstrated during Gustav the cultivation of a new disaster action repertoire based on their experience of Katrina. Although composed of fewer pronouncements (but equally influenced by Katrinas aftermath), this repertoire functioned as a parallel and interacting universe to official hurricane operations. Before, during, and after Gustav, social movement organizers both anticipated and responded to State actions.3 Their efforts operationalized key strategic and tactical insights developed in the years since Katrina. These insights have guided social movement activity since the hurricanes of 2005, and come together to form post-Katrina emergent movement orientations.

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7) Early Warning Systems fail: lack of resources and expertise Bridge 2010 (Bob Bridge is the principal of Hazard Assessment & Safety in Austin, Texas. He is a Certified Environmental Technician through the
Texas Engineering Extension Service (TEEX) in the Texas A&M University System and is a Certified Infrastructure Preparedness Specialist and Registered Environmental Property Assessor through the National Registry of Environmental Professionals, Mitigating Wildfire Disaster: Early Detection and Commitment Disaster Reocvery journal http://www.drj.com/2010-articles/online-exclusive/mitigating-wildfire-disaster-early-detection-andcommitment.html)

Based on existing regional and global initiatives and partnerships, efforts are underway that support the development of intergovernmental agreements and resourcing necessary to implement a global wildfire monitoring and early warning system. Unfortunately, despite the efforts of governments and civil society, the majority of countries do not have sufficient human or technical resources for sustainable fire management. Even if worldwide funding were available through a transfer of wealth from rich nations to poor nations, it has been demonstrated that elites in poor nations have been adept at capturing aid flows for their own purposes, thereby creating situations that do not necessarily translate into helping the poor. It is evidenced in this article that technological advances in detection are ongoing at an amazing rate. Whereas the need for a standardized global system of wildfire detection is desirable, it may not be practical at this time. Wildfire detection may best be served by allowing competitive entities (private enterprise, government consortiums, etc.) to continually engage in the development of more effective
technologies allowing for the evolution of better and cheaper systems (similar to combat and passenger aircraft manufacturing, cellular telephone technologies, etc.).

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EXT 1NC 3: No Biopower Impact

Biopolitics is not the problem in and of itself, its biopolitics deployed in totalitariains socities which is badOur strengthening of democratic structures prevents, not causes, their impact
Dickinson, University of Cincinnati, March 2004 [Edward Ross, Biopolitics, Fascism, Democracy: Some Reflections on Our Discourse About Modernity, Central European History, vol. 37, no. 1, p. 18-19]
In an important programmatic statement of 1996 Geoff Eley celebrated the fact that Foucaults ideas have fundamentally directed attention away from institutionally centered conceptions of government and the state . . . and toward a dispersed and decentered notion of power and its microphysics.48 The broader, deeper, and less visible ideological consensus on technocratic reason and the ethical unboundedness of science was the focus of

But the power-producing effects in Foucaults microphysical sense (Eley) of the construction of social bureaucracies and social knowledge, simply do not explain Nazi policy.50 The destructive dynamic of Nazism was a product not so much of a particular modern set of ideas as of a particular modern political structure, one that could realize the disastrous potential of those ideas. What was critical was not the expansion of the instruments and disciplines of biopolitics, which occurred everywhere in Europe. Instead, it was the principles that guided how those instruments and disciplines were organized and used, and the external constraints on them. In National Socialism, biopolitics was shaped by a totalitarian conception of social management focused on the power and ubiquity of the vlkisch state. In democratic societies, biopolitics has historically been constrained by a rights-based strategy of social management. This is a point to which I will return shortly. For now, the point is that what was decisive was actually politics at the level of the state. A comparative framework can help us to clarify this point. Other states passed compulsory sterilization laws in the 1930s indeed, individual states in the United States had already begun doing so in 1907. Yet they did not proceed to the next steps adopted by National Socialism mass sterilization, mass eugenic abortion and murder of the defective. Individual figures in, for example, the U.S. did make such suggestions. But neither the political structures of democratic states nor their legal and political principles permitted such policies actually being enacted. Nor did the scale of forcible sterilization in other countries match that of the Nazi program. I do not mean to suggest that such programs were not horrible; but in a democratic political context they did not develop the dynamic of constant radicalization and escalation that characterized Nazi policies.
his interest.49 of an entire institutional apparatus and system of practice ( Jean Quataert),

EXT 1NC 4: Neoliberalism Good

Free market and little government involvement allows for prosperity. Frazier 2004, [Bart received a B.S. in economics from George Mason University, the free market is the high road, future of freedom foundation, http://www.fff.org/comment/com0408a.pdf]
Nothing could raise our standard of living more than freeing the economy from our meddling government . When people are able to live free of government regulation, they prosper goods become cheaper, standards of living go up, and individual liberty is expanded. Today, government regulates almost every aspect of our lives, including how we educate our children, what we build on our land, how chicken is packaged, how much gas our cars use, what we use for money, what
we spray in our gardens, what countries we visit, what we ingest, what were paid for our work, how many and what kind of fish we can catch, where we protest, how much money we give to politicians, sex, marriage, and

This is costly, not only in terms of liberty but also in terms of prosperity. Free markets maximize both. Succinctly put, regulated markets are not efficient they misdirect and waste resources by distorting the price system. A rise in the price of a good tells both sellers and buyers that, for whatever reason, conditions are different than they were before, and that the good is now harder to obtain. When the government blocks this process, buyers and sellers receive distorted or even false information. For instance, in the case of the gasoline shortages of the 1970s, consumers were not receiving the market
just about every other facet of life that should be no ones business but our own. signal that gasoline had become harder to get because the government had mandated a maximum price that could be charged for gasoline. Thus, people demanded more gas than retailers were willing to sell and the infamous long gas lines were the result.

Globalization solves poverty.

Balakrishnan, 2000 [Political Science Professor at University of Chicago Hardt and Negris Empire, New Left Review, http://newleftreview.org/A2275]
Inseparable from the failure to think politically, Hardt and Negri, like the rioters endlessly disrupting World Trade Organization meetings, offer no evidence to support their basic charge that economic globalization is causing wide-scale planetary misery. Predictably, this past summer, as the G-8 meeting got underway in Genoa, Italy, the New York Times chose these two "joyful" Communists to write a lengthy op-ed extolling the virtues of anti-globalization rioters. The truth about globalization is exactly the reverse of what Hardt and Negri assert . Globalization is dramatically increasing world prosperity and freedom. As the Economist's John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge point out, in the half century since the foundation of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the world economy has expanded six-fold, in part because trade has increased 1,600 percent; nations open to trade grow nearly twice as fast as those that aren't; and World Bank data show that during the past decade of accelerated economic globalization, approximately 800 million people escaped poverty.

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Predictions about the bad effects on globalization are not reliable. Data gathering has two problems.
Jin-Wei 2002 [Shang, Professor of Finance and Economics, Professor of International Affairs, and N.T. Wang Professor of Chinese Business and Economy, Is Globalization Good for the Poor in China?, Finance and Development, http://relooney.fatcow.com/3040_c189.pdf]
the impact of globalization has been based on cross -country comparisons. This approach is tainted with two key problems. The data on income and inequality in different countries cannot always be compared because of differences in the definition of variables and data-collection methods. It is also difficult to control for differences in culture and institutions, including the legal system, that may influence growth or inequality. Professors T.N. Srinivasan and Jagdish Bhagwati argued in a paper written in 1999 that cross-country regressions are deficient and cannot be relied on to unravel the complex links between globalization, growth, poverty, and inequality. They insisted that the most compelling evidence must come from
Much of the research that has examined careful case studies. One may not fully agree with Srinivasan and Bhagwati, but their warning should give sufficient pause for us to complement the cross-country studies with careful studies of individual countries. The data are much more comparable, and the culture and institutions are also much more similar, for different regions within a country than they are across countries.

Case studies of china prove that when new cities are opened and implement these market models, the level of inequality decreases.
Jin-Wei 2002 [Shang, Professor of Finance and Economics, Professor of International Affairs, and N.T. Wang Professor of Chinese Business and Economy, Is Globalization Good for the Poor in China?, Finance and Development, http://relooney.fatcow.com/3040_c189.pdf]
impact of the change in a city's openness on the change in its inequality, taking into account a number of other variables that can potentially affect inequality? We cities that have opened up more quickly have, on average, also experienced a faster decline (or a slower increase) in local urban-rural inequality (see top panel of chart) This pattern continues to hold as we refine the study to include a city's initial level of inequality, the average growth rate of local GDP, and a measure of differential investment rates in urban and rural areas. We also account for cities that were allowed to carry out certain market reforms ahead of the rest of the country (officially designated "coastal open cities" and special economic zones).
What is the find that a clear pattern emerges from the data:

Market openness is not responsible for inequality. Regions that have experienced faster increases in openness have actually experienced a faster decrease in inequality.
Jin-Wei 2002 [Shang, Professor of Finance and Economics, Professor of International Affairs, and N.T. Wang Professor of Chinese Business and Economy, Is Globalization Good for the Poor in China?, Finance and Development, http://relooney.fatcow.com/3040_c189.pdf]
drawing inferences from summary statistics can be misleading. Over the past two decades, overall income inequality has risen in China even as globalization has increased. It is temptingbut deceptiveto conclude that openness is somehow responsible for inequality . The evolution of inequality is influenced by many factors in addition to openness. Within China, regions that have experienced a faster increase in openness have actually experienced a faster decrease, not an increase, in inequality. So embracing trade openness has in fact created opportunities for rural areas not only to grow but to grow faster than their more fortunate urban neighbors. Second, reducing inequality should not be an end in itself. Interregional inequality in China has risen partly as a result of an uneven distribution of effective openness across different regions. A policy that slows the growth of more open areas without accelerating the growth of less open areas is unlikely to be a good policy even if it improves equality. The challenge for policymakers is to find ways to increase openness in the areas that are currently less open and to distribute the overall gains from openness more evenly across the country. Third, raising trade
First, barriers is tantamount to a country's imposing an unfortunate geography on itself, and such measures are likely to hurt rather than help the poor in the country. Across different regions in China, as across different countries in the world, effective openness is closely linked to geography. While overcoming geography is not easy, improvements in transportation, infrastructure, and communication technology can help.

Globalization allows for the promotion of human rights allowing for social change. It is not confined to the west.
Howard-Hassmann 2005 [Rhoda E., The Second Great Transformation: Human Rights Leapfrogging in the Era of Globalization, Human Rights Quarterly, Project MUSE,
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/hrq/summary/v027/27.1howard-hassmann.html]

Human rights leap frogging is one positive aspect of globalization, but it is no guarantee of ultimate global respect for human rights. No social scientist can predict the future, nor do
those anxious to protect their academic reputations attempt to do so. The fact that over the course of two centuries the capitalist West gradually became wealthy, relatively free, and democratic does not mean all other societies

the Western worlds many deviation from a steady progress to protection of human rights are well known. Nevertheless, globalization has spread the idea of human rights world wide. It has speeded up social change. Ideas and rules of human rights leapfrog across oceans and centuries, intersecting with social changes on the ground. Countries such as Taiwan and South Korea have already followed paths to become relatively rights-protective societies, similar to the path outlined above in Figure III (a). They did so in fifty years, not 200. Thus this model is not confined to the West, despite the Wests obvious initial advantages in industrializing.
will inevitably do likewise. And

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EXT 1NC 4: Globalization Inevitable

Globalization is inevitable and cannot be stopped. Howard-Hassmann 2005 [Rhoda E., The Second Great Transformation: Human Rights Leapfrogging in the Era of Globalization, Human Rights Quarterly, Project MUSE,
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/hrq/summary/v027/27.1howard-hassmann.html]

Globalization is changing the conditions under which all countries and societies are integrated into world politics and the world economy. Among human rights activists and some human rights scholars, there is a debate about whether globalization is good or bad for human rights . Peter Schwab and Adamantia Pollis, for example, focus only on the negative aspects of globalization, stating Clearly globalization has had a deleterious effect on the entire complex of human rights . . . .1 I suggest that this is a false debate . The issue is not whether globalization is a thing out of control, eating up traditional societies, local values, and local economies. This is inevitable. Globalization cannot be stopped, and its forces will undermine what is left of purely local societies. The issue is the kinds of changes that globalization is likely to effect in the long as well as in the medium and short terms, and how societies and individuals will react to those changes. To argue whether globalization as a process is good or bad is as irrelevant as arguing whether the transition from an agrarian to an industrial society in the Western world from the eighteenth to the twentieth century was good or bad. Many complex social changes occurred: some economies were strengthened, some were weakened. Some states rose, some fell. Some social classes and categories benefitted, others sank into oblivion. Globalization is not only inevitable; it is, despite all its costs, the only path to long-term growth. As Amartya Sen has stated, The one solution [to the problems caused by globalization] that is not available is that of stopping globalization o f trade and economies.2 The countries that change the least, notes The Economist, where the costs of growth are closest to zero, are those where poverty and disease are worst .3 But there are, nevertheless, many and severe short-term costs on the path to medium
or long-term growth. One solution that may partially alleviate the problems caused by globalization is the leapfrogging of human rights across time and space, as discussed below. The global human rights regime and the global human rights process can perhaps remedy some of the dangers of the global economic system.

EXT 1NC 5: Cant solve racism

Cant solve racism: structural separation of the public sphere and white hegemony. Traditional politics fail.
Dawson 2006 (Michael, prof of political science, Univ of Chicago, Du Bois Review (2006), 3: 239-249 AFTER THE DELUGE: Publics and Publicity in Katrina's Wake)
The isolation of the Black public sphere(s) means that it is much more difficult for Blacks to influence state power. Civil society is on the periphery of the circulation of power, according to Habermas (1992[1996]). 8 But Blacks, I contend, are not a part of that circulation because, in Habermasian terms, during most periods of U.S. history, including this one, Blacks have not been, by and large, a part of the opinion-will formation process. Habermas identifies a small set
of assumptions as necessary for a group to be a part of opinion-will formationto be able to use the opinion of the public to influence policy, legislation, and governance. One of his key assumptions is that the public in question has the capacity to both identify and thematize societal problems and their potential political solutions, and the ability to inject them via parliamentary (or judicial) sluices into the political system in a way that disrupts the latter's routines (Habermas 1992[1996], p. 358, emphasis in the original). African American publics have generally had robust capacity to identify and thematize social problems and their solution (Dawson 2001). They have had difficulty, however, during many periods (including the current one), as a result of the largely segregated nature of civil society in the United States, in interjecting the thematizations of their perceptions of problems and the problems' solutions into political discourse and policy channels. The voluntary associations of civil society, Habermas states in Between Facts and Norms (1992[1996]), become the mechanism by which

In the current period, this isolation and weakness of Black counterpublics is particularly dangerous for what Iris Young (2000) calls the self-organizing component of civil society. Associational life has been and continues to be largely separate. There are separate Methodist and Baptist churches for Blacks and Whites, separate Greek fraternities and sororities, separate civic associations such as the Elks and Masons. If both the public sphere and self-organizing components of civil society are segregated by race and have little quotidian contact with each other, to what degree does it make sense to talk, either theoretically or empirically, about a single American civil society? Or does it make more sense to discuss overlapping but
the public sphere is connected and able to disrupt the politics of governance. It is the frequent isolation of Black counterpublics that renders them ineffective in influencing politics. distinct civil societies with their separate associational life, public spheres, and counterpublics; their shared consensuses, norms, values, and political discourses? This is an empirical question as well as a theoretical question.

The empirical evidence so far suggests that racially segregated patterns of life have stubbornly persisted for more than a generation after the passage of the major civil rights legislation of the mid-1960s. If such patterns continue to hold, then it does make sense, both theoretically and practically speaking, to describe civil society and its associated publics and counterpublics as racially fragmented. As problematic as segregation is in this realm of civil society, Black institutions such as the church, Masonic halls, business,
etc., which historically provided the foundation for activities of survival and resistance, are at one of their weakest historic moments. The weakness is due to the collapse of the political economy as well as local government services in the nation's poorest urban neighborhoods. Rampant unemployment, mass incarceration, and rising levels of poverty have undercut the social and economic bases that provided the foundation for what Drake called the Black metropolis (Drake and Cayton, 1962; Wilson 1980; Bobo 2004). Thus the Black counterpublic and associated social movements are weaker still, due to the weakening of the voluntary associations and networks which were built on top of the already weakened social base. Resistance in the past was more widespread and militant than in the present period. Further, the impact of the decline of the political economy over the past thirty years, the massive and violent intervention of the state in attacking the more militant elements of Black civil society a generation ago, the self-destructive tendencies within Black progressive movements, the substantial absorption of much of the Black political elite into the Democratic Partyand with it a consequent growing lack of accountability to the most disadvantaged segments of Black communitiesas well as growing class,

One consequence of this last trend has been a narrowing of the ideological alternatives within the Black counterpublic. During the second half of the twentieth century, ideologies such as radical egalitarianism, Black Marxism, Black nationalism, and Black feminism strove with each other to win adherents, but today the number and strength of contending ideological voices is greatly attenuated (Dawson 2001; Kelley 2002). So, not only has the Black counterpublic become more isolated from the levers of
gender, and generational differences, have all served to weaken even further the institutional base of Black civil society (Dawson 2001; Reed 1999).

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politics, it has been less able to identify and thematize the severe problems that face African Americansparticularly the most disadvantaged onesin the early twenty-first century. The internal weaknesses of Black civil society serve to increase both its isolation and its relative and absolute powerlessness. One outcome of this isolation has been the production of different norms for White civil society and Black civil society. Thus, both the first story, about a racially fragmented civil society and a Black counterpublic that formed in response to a dominant public
producing systematically different distributions of beliefs, norms, and assessments of life in America, as well as the second story, about the consequences of Katrina's aftermath for Black civil society and the Black counterpublic in New Orleans, have their roots in the relative political, economic, and social powerlessness that African Americans have known historically and continue to have in this era. Indeed, as Nancy Fraser (1989) and Michael Warner (2002) both argue, counterpublics are by their nature subordinate to their dominant counterparts (in this case, subordinate to White-dominated civil society, public spheres, and counterpublics) and, as Fraser

The relative powerlessness and lack of resources that disadvantaged the Black community of New Orleans were manifest in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Residential patterns structured by the intersection of race and poverty tended to confine Blacks to poor and vulnerable neighborhoods. The same lack of resources made it more difficult for African Americans to leave the city and arrange for substitute housing, whether they stayed or left. The immense racial wealth gap that disadvantages the Black middle class makes it more difficult for middle-class African Americans not only to restart small businesses and rebuild residences, but even to contemplate how to return to their city. The one public hospital that serviced not only poor Black communities but the medically indigent of all colors was itself in an area vulnerable to flooding, and early in the aftermath it was no longer
argues, have subaltern status. able to function. According to a New England Journal of Medicine report, Fred Lopez, vice chair for education at Louisiana State University (LSU) School of Medicine, observed, The desperate week we spent inside Charity after Katrina is the one that everybody saw on CNN, but that was the easiest week of the last six months. The report goes on to say: Many believe that mortality has also increased substantially, although specifics are difficult to obtainthe Louisiana Department of Health is still struggling to complete the compilation of 2005 data. As a crude indicator, there were 25 percent more death notices in the Times-Picayune in January 2006

And, as we know from the work of social analysts at the New Vision Institute, the elderly were more likely to die, and the Black elderly were disproportionately more likely to die as a result of the storm (Sharkey 2006). The aftermath of the storm cruelly illustrated Habermas's admonition that The capacity of the public sphere to solve problems on its own is limited, and the same can be said of civil society more
than there were in January 2005 (Berggren and Curiel, 2006). generally (Habermas 1992[1996], p. 359, emphasis in the original). But in the aftermath of the hurricane, the state failed in its responsibility to its citizens, and those who were poor and Black suffered the consequences of the state's failure disproportionately. Equally fundamental, perhaps, especially if we think about the rights of liberal citizens, is the massive disenfranchisement of African Americans in New Orleans as a result of May's municipal elections. Brown sociologist John Logan has estimated that, of those who were eligible to vote in the May 2006 election, 102,000 African Americans, as opposed to 48,000 Whites, were scattered outside of the state (ClarkFlory 2006; Logan 2006). Furthermore, only an estimated 31,000 African Americans from New Orleans were scattered within the state, as opposed to 92,000 of the White citizens of New Orleans. All in all, New Orleans may lose up to 80% of its Black population. Logan has characterized the current in-city electorate as distinctly White and middle classa complete reversal of the city's recent electoral demographics. The state provided just ten locations around the state of Louisiana (in addition to absentee ballots) to accommodate the displaced voters. The stakes are huge. Much of the discussion on how to rebuild the city has been delayed until the new administration is in place. There have been calls by both some newspapers' editorial voices and some business interests to dramatically reshape the city in such a way that the unwanted element does not return. One example is an October 17, 2005, Baton Rouge Advocate editorial, which opens by stating: It is time to think rationally, not politically: New Orleans and Louisiana would be better off if the state does not rebuild Southern University in New Orleans Its existence has always been more about racial politics than education policy (Baton Rouge Advocate 2005). The editors go on to suggest that the students of this historically Black university could attend

Given the weakness of the Black counterpublic, the New Orleans Black community was in danger of being frozen out of having any voice in the rebuilding of New Orleans, regardless of whether Nagin or Landrieu won the mayoral election. As many observers reported, there was little difference in the actual platforms and programs of the two Democratic candidates. The precariousness of the situation of poor Blacks, in particular, can be seen in the viewpoints of the old White ruling class of the city. The Wall Street Journal reported that James Reiss, a wealthy (so wealthy that in the aftermath of Katrina he helicoptered in
community colleges. an Israeli security company to guard his Audubon Place house and those of his neighbors) New Orleans shipbuilder who was the Nagin administration's chairman of regional transportation district, bluntly stated:

EXT 1NC 6: SQUO Solves

Social Movements have already galvanized around Katrina: Aff not key.
Luft 2009 (Rachel E., assistant professor of sociology and women and gender studies at the University of New Orleans, American Quarterly Volume 61, Number 3, September 2009 Beyond Disaster Exceptionalism:
Social Movement Developments in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina) In the three and a half years since Katrina, scholarship on the hurricane events has exploded. Eighteen academic journals fro m various disciplines have produced special Katrina volumes. The Social Science Research Councils Hurricane Katrina Research Bibliography, updated monthly, is nearly seventy pages, and grouped by area of study, such as culture and tradition, evacuation, and housing. Eminent disaster scholar Kai Erikson predicts Katrina will be [End Page 501] the most studied disaster in history. Yet academic documentation of social movement activity is almost nonexistent.7 The SSRCs bibliography has no area entry for social movements.

some have implied that Katrina-related grievances are among the most compelling of our time.8 Immediately after the hurricane, some movement leaders expected that Katrina would rekindle a mass movement in the United States. Chokwe Lumumba, for example, founder of the Malcolm X Grassroots Movement and a significant contributor to the Peoples Hurricane Relief Fund, called Katrina the Emmett Till of our generation. Although there was no national uprising, the amount of movement activity on the Gulf Coast has been remarkable, especially in light of the fact that much of the population remains displaced and poor people have notoriously low levels of movement participation.9 The relatively scant literature on disaster and social movements suggests that, although
A review of its titles suggests that perhaps six articles include social movements as a primary focus. But disaster can be a galvanizing force, new na-tech disasterspart natural, part human-madecan have corrosive effects on community solidarity.10 This article is a response to both the amount of movement activity in New Orleans since Katrina and the dearth of attention it has received in scholarly research.

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Solvency Frontline 1/1

1) Cooperation fails: ITAR
Wigbels et. Al., 2008 (Lyn, G. Ryan Faith, and Vincent Sabathier; Senior Fellow/Assistant Professor at the Center for Aerospace Policy Research at George Mason University; research analyst at the space foundation at CSIS; senior associate with the CSIS Technology and Public Policy Program EARTH OBSERVATIONS AND GLOBAL CHANGE Why? Where Are We? What Next?, A Report of CSIS Space Initiatives, csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/080725_wigbels_earthobservation_web.pdf)
However, much more needs to be done in order to implement GEOSS. Jason, the oceanog- raphy mission to monitor global ocean circulation, and NPOESS, the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System, are examples of successful international engagement. There are further opportunities for the United States to be proactive in seeking partnerships on cooperative missions and developing interoperable systems. Further, with the exception of ocean monitoring, the United States has not built the cooperative relationships to transition new sen- sors and systems beyond what are essentially technology demonstration missions to longterm data acquisition and continuity missions. Additionally, current

U.S. export control regulations are a significant structural impediment to and fundamental disincentive for U.S. collaboration with international partners, for international cooperation with the United States, and for the develop- ment of GEOSS. The International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) legislation has created real and perceived obstacles to engagement and cooperation. While ITAR was intended to cover critical, highly sensitive military technologiesa widely agreed on fundamental national rightin practice, the regulations are applied to a much wider array of other technologies. In addition, as individuals in the approval process are criminally liable equally for real and perceived mistakes, decisionmakers have a strong incentive to be excessively cautious.
Furthermore, despite the writ- ten provisions of ITAR, the regulations are now being applied to data from space systems, not just the space systems themselves.

These factors have led to the situation where ITAR has forced the international community to develop its own independent capabilities (for example, radar ocean altimetry and Lidar/IMU). Consequently, international companies now lead in several technolo- gies, while U.S. firms are losing access to global markets and in some cases have lost the ability to produce such technologies altogether.

2) Remote sensing now

Joyce et al. 2009, [Karen, Holds a ph. D in geographical sciences, A review of the status of satellite remote sensing and image processing techniques for
mapping natural hazards and disasters, Progress in Physical Geography, http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/detail?sid=42ff2398-b74e-471c-b710eba884fe9018%40sessionmgr111&vid=1&hid=113&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d]

Every year, more earth observation satellites are launched than go out of commission. Currently, both Radarsat and SPOT have two satellites in orbit, and many other services with one satellite are planning a replacement and/or a second vehicle. Just as there are constellations of communications satellites to allow continual coverage, a number of national/international initiatives are in the process of launching constellations of satellites to enable daily or more frequent observation of anywhere in the world. One of the main drivers/justifications of these services is national security and this includes hazard monitoring. Systems that are under way include Cosmo-Skymed, a oonstellation of two X-band SAR satellites and two optical satellites phased at 90 degrees from one another. Another constellation under way is one developed by Surrey Satellite Technology (SSD and known as the Disaster Monitoring Constellation (DMC). This is a series of microsatellites carrying multispectral sensors, each of which will be owned by individual countries/partners that will cooperate in data acquisition and distribution in the event of a disaster . When complete, the constellation should enable daily data
coverage at the equator and hourly at higher latitudes (da Silva Curiel et al., 2005). The German satellite TerraSARX (launched in June 2007) is capable of acquiring imagery witl1 up to I m spatial resolution. Again the literature on processing and applications of this sensor is limited, but the sensor is expected to be another useful option for disaster monitoring.

3) More Satellites are unnecessary: no capacity to process data. Joyce et al. 2009, [Karen, Holds a ph. D in geographical sciences, A review of the status of satellite remote sensing and image processing techniques for
mapping natural hazards and disasters, Progress in Physical Geography, http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/detail?sid=42ff2398-b74e-471c-b710eba884fe9018%40sessionmgr111&vid=1&hid=113&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d]

Remote sensing satellites have frequently been used to contribute to disaster management. The most common, best understood, and operational of these uses is that of weather satellites for cyclones, storms and, in some cases flash floods. These systems have certain clear advantages. For instance, there are many orbiting and geostationary satellite services available, and coverage of almost any part of the world is available in small timescales ranging from hours to a few days. Further, imagery from these satellites is relatively cheap or freely available, and the scale of the events roughly matches the resolution of the satellite imagery. Spatial resolution, image extent and spectral characteristics play a large role in determining whether or not a particular sensor or data type is capable of detecting individual hazards, irrespective of the ability to acquire or process these data (see Table 3, derived from similar work in coastal environments CRSSIS, 2006). Many of these data types have been discussed in previous sections with specific examples.

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EXT 1NC 1: ITAR

ITAR dooms GEOSS and international cooperation. This is their author. Wigbels et. Al., 2008 (Lyn, G. Ryan Faith, and Vincent Sabathier; Senior Fellow/Assistant Professor at the Center for Aerospace Policy Research at
George Mason University; research analyst at the space foundation at CSIS; senior associate with the CSIS Technology and Public Policy Program EARTH OBSERVATIONS AND GLOBAL CHANGE Why? Where Are We? What Next?, A Report of CSIS Space Initiatives, csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/080725_wigbels_earthobservation_web.pdf)
The U.S.-led creation of the multinational Group on Earth Observations (GEO) has been a tremendous scientific, environmental, and foreign policy achievement. It has engaged governments at the ministerial level who have agreed on the value of Earth observations in obtaining concrete societal benefits. Through its strong leadership at GEO and in the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS), the United States has made progress in engaging the international community in discussions on GEOSS. The United States has also led a growing consensus on making data freely available at low cost, which has prompted other nations (including Brazil, China, and Russia) to open up previously closed data sets. However, much more needs to be done in order to implement GEOSS. Jason, the oceanography mission to monitor global ocean circulation, and NPOESS, the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System, are examples of successful international engagement. There are further opportunities for the United States to be proactive in seeking partnerships on cooperative missions and developing interoperable systems. Further, with the exception of ocean monitoring, the United States has not built the cooperative relationships to transition new sensors and systems beyond what are essentially technology demonstration missions to long-term data acquisition and continuity missions. Additionally, current U.S. export control regulations are a significant structural impediment to and fundamental disincentive for U.S.

The International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) legislation has created real and perceived obstacles to engagement and cooperation. While ITAR was intended to cover critical, highly sensitive military technologiesa widely agreed on fundamental national rightin practice, the regulations are applied to a much wider array of other technologies. In addition, as individuals in the approval process are criminally liable equally for real and perceived mistakes, decisionmakers have a strong incentive to be excessively cautious. Furthermore, despite the writ- ten provisions of ITAR, the regulations are now being applied to data from space systems, not just the space systems themselves. These factors have led to the situation where ITAR has forced the international community to develop its own independent capabilities ( for example, radar ocean altimetry and Lidar/IMU). Consequently, international companies now lead in several technologies, while U.S. firms are losing access to global markets and in some cases have lost the ability to produce such technologies altogether.
collaboration with international partners, for international cooperation with the United States, and for the development of GEOSS.

ITAR destroys US space industry. Demisch 2006 (Wolfgang, a principal of Demisch Associates LLC, an aerospace financial consultancy, ITARs End, Aviation Week & Space Technology July 17, http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1086/1)
For U.S. industrial and technology suppliers, including the U.S. aerospace industry, the shift to a global control regime cannot come soon enough. The Wassenaar accords are superseded in the U.S. by more onerous conditions codified in the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), which cover all items included in the very lengthy munitions list, require advance approval for the foreign sale or resale or even discussion of not only major equipment, but also subsystems, parts, chemicals, materials, software and procedures. The constraints are so burdensome that major foreign producers such as Alcatel have set a policy to build "ITAR-free" equipment, eliminating U.S. suppliers from their products. The economic damage inflicted is cumulative and accelerates as the loss of global business raises the overhead on remaining U.S. production.

ITAR destroys domestic space industry: Foreign markets are gaining market share. John Hillery 2006 (CSIS Commentary, U.S. Satellite Export Control Policy By John Hillery September 20, 2006)
Customers can look to European or Japanese manufacturers to provide the equipment more rapidly because their governments do not regulate satellite exports as munitions. U.S. firms report that governments favor non-U.S. firms in a contracting process by setting deadlines and goals that cannot be met if ITAR approval is required, effectively creating a non-tariff barrier and shutting the door on U.S. firms. The figure below shows the decline in the U.S. market share in commercial satellites. Prior to the change in export controls in 1999, the U.S. dominated the commercial satellite-manufacturing field with an average market share of 83 percent. Since that time, market share has declined to 50 percent. The French firm Alcatel Alenia Space has excelled since the change to ITAR. Alcatel doubled its share of the market from around 10% in 1998 to over 20% in 2004.1
There are, of course, other sources of decline as well, including a general overcapacity in the market space, with too many manufacturers chasing after too few contracts. However, in this competitive environment, regulation has become a competitive differentiating factor.

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EXT 1NC 1: ITAR AT: Not NASA

NASA is affected by ITAR: Contractors and sub-contractors. John Hillery 2006 (CSIS Commentary, U.S. Satellite Export Control Policy By John Hillery September 20, 2006) The International Traffic in Arms Regulations ( ITAR) governs the control of export and import of defense-related material and services and is enforced by the Department of State. In 1999, Congress directed that technologies pertaining to commercial satellites return to the list. Issues with ITAR Controls Both prime- and sub- contractors, as well as satellite operators and consulting services, find that the ITAR process is too slow. The State Departments backlog of applications places U.S. firms at a comparative disadvantage when negotiating with customers. There are now annually 60,000 applications at the State Department, with approval taking more than 70 days. If a customer changes its name, the process to change the name on the license with State is cumbersome and causes delays. Multiple licenses are usually required for a single transaction. The ITAR approval process even delayed NASA when a prime contractor had a European subcontractor and fell under the export controls rules. ITARs Effect on Global Satellite Market The current export control regime has diminished U.S. firms market share and increased foreign firms entry. Foreign
firms are leveraging the ITAR-free advantage to offer customers faster delivery of products. European satellite companies have been designing satellites without U.S. components; France launched the first ITAR-free satellite in April 2005.

EXT 1NC 3: PMNs for Satellites

Cant solve climate change: operationalization of data. Lewis et. Al. 2010 (James A., senior fellow and director of the Technology and Public Policy Program at CSIS;
Sarah O. Ladislaw, CSIS Senior Fellow, Energy and National Security Program; and Denise E. Zheng, CSIS; Earth Observation for Climate Change: A Report of the CSIS Technology and Public Policy Program, csis.org/files/publication/100608_Lewis_EarthObservation_WEB.pdf)

Operationalizationmaking the data and knowledge generated by satellites and science useful for policy and planningis the real challenge for GCOS and its member states. Without a greater effort to operationalize climate data, the global effort on climate change will most likely fail , an outcome that is not in our national interest. Operationalization requires a new
approach. The existing vehicles for international data sharing have been mainly aimed at the scientific commu- nity. As the provider of climate-related observations to support the activities of the UNFCCC and national governments, GCOS is the best multilateral entity to own these new responsibilities of managing and expanding the international climate knowledge base. The

GCOS mission should be expanded to include helping the international community and national governments to understand, organize, and prepare to respond to climate changes and to provide analytical
capability to integrate climate change information to other priorities and initiatives (development, trade, security, etc.). GCOS could be the international provider of data and analysis for climate change, providing detailed assessment to support policymakers, particularly in less-developed countries that may currently lack the resources for aggregation and analysis. Expanding and energizing GEO would also help, as the premise of GEO is to ensure the availability of Earth observation data and knowledge worldwide.

Cant solve disasters: distribution problems

Joyce et al. 2009, [Karen, Holds a ph. D in geographical sciences, A review of the status of satellite remote sensing and image processing techniques for
mapping natural hazards and disasters, Progress in Physical Geography, http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/detail?sid=42ff2398-b74e-471c-b710eba884fe9018%40sessionmgr111&vid=1&hid=113&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d]

There are a number of other provisos on the ability of a satellite sensor to monitor a disaster. Where imagery cannot be recorded on board the satellite, and where there is no local receiving station coverage or where a local receiving station is not licensed for a particular satellite, data cannot be collected. For many parts of the world, medium to high resolution remote sensing satellites will only acquire data after the satellite has been programmed to do so. ln these circumstances, coverage of the affected area is likely to be delayed and possibly missed. However, when major disasters unfold, most satellite operators will schedule imagery collection, even without confirmed programming requests, either on humanitarian grounds or in the hope of data sales. In a country with national reception capabilities, programming satellite acquisition may not be required but data acquisition will still depend upon satellite orbit constraints.

The advancement of satellite technology is slower and more costly than expected. The plan is not worth its noticeably high costs. OHanlon, 04, Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies at Brookings and holder of the Sydney Stein Jr. Chair (Neither Star Wars Nor Sanctuary)
One general theme about future technology is that, despite the tendency of military strategists to rave about defense transformation and a coming revolution in military affairs, many

satellite development programs are currently advancing more slowly than once hoped. Leaving aside fundamental constraints of the laws of physics, immediate engineering challenges are making it harder than expected to develop systems that are generally believed to be within reach. For example, the nations next-generation global positioning system satellites, space-based infrared satellites at higher and lower orbits (SBIRS-high and SBIRS-low), and communications systems (such as the advanced extremely high-frequency satellite system). Cheaper and/or reusable launchers are proving hard to develop as well, as discussed below. Most futuristic technologies remain just that.

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AT: Oceans Add-On

Climate change proves Oceans and marine bioD are resilient
Taylor 10 [James M. Taylor is a senior fellow of The Heartland Institute and managing editor of Environment & Climate News., Ocean Acidification Scare
Pushed at Copenhagen, Feb 10 http://www.heartland.org/publications/environment%20climate/article/26815/Ocean_Acidification_Scare_Pushed_at_Copenhagen.html] With global temperatures continuing their decade-long decline and United Nations-sponsored global warming talks falling apart in Copenhagen, alarmists at the U.N. talks spent

considerable time claiming carbon dioxide emissions will cause catastrophic ocean acidification, regardless of whether temperatures rise. The latest scientific data, however, show no such catastrophe is likely to occur. Food
Supply Risk Claimed The United Kingdoms environment secretary, Hilary Benn, initiated the Copenhagen ocean scare with a high-profile speech and numerous media interviews claiming ocean acidification threatens the worlds food supply. The fact is our seas absorb CO2. They absorb about a quarter of the total that we produce, but it is making our seas more acidic, said Benn in his speech. If this continues as a problem, then it can affect the one billion people who depend on fish as their principle source of protein, and we have to feed another 2 to 3 billion people over the next 40 to 50 years. Benns

claim of oceans becoming more acidic is misleading, however. Water with a pH of 7.0 is considered neutral. pH values lower than 7.0 are considered acidic, while those higher than 7.0 are considered alkaline. The worlds oceans have a pH of 8.1, making them alkaline, not acidic. Increasing carbon dioxide concentrations would make the oceans less alkaline but not acidic. Since human industrial activity first began emitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere a little more than 200 years ago, the pH of the oceans has fallen merely 0.1, from 8.2 to 8.1. Following Benns December 14 speech and public relations efforts, most of the worlds major media
outlets produced stories claiming ocean acidification is threatening the worlds marine life. An Associated Press headline, for example, went so far as to call ocean acidification the evil twin of climate change. Studies Show CO2 Benefits Numerous recent scientific studies show higher

carbon dioxide levels in the worlds oceans have the same beneficial effect on marine life as higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide have on terrestrial plant life. In a 2005 study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, scientists examined trends in chlorophyll concentrations, critical building blocks in the oceanic food chain. The French and American scientists reported
an overall increase of the world ocean average chlorophyll concentration by about 22 percent during the prior two decades of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. In a 2006 study published in Global Change Biology, scientists observed higher CO2 levels are correlated with better growth conditions for oceanic life.

The highest CO2 concentrations produced higher growth rates and biomass yields than the lower CO2 conditions. Higher CO2 levels may well fuel subsequent primary production, phytoplankton blooms, and sustaining oceanic food-webs, the study concluded. Ocean Life Surprisingly Resilient In a 2008 study published in Biogeosciences, scientists subjected marine organisms to varying concentrations of CO2, including abrupt changes of CO2 concentration. The ecosystems were surprisingly resilient to changes in atmospheric CO2, and the
ecosystem composition, bacterial and phytoplankton abundances and productivity, grazing rates and total grazer abundance and reproduction were not significantly affected by CO2-induced effects. In a 2009 study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, scientists reported, Sea star growth and feeding rates increased with water temperature from 5C to 21C. A doubling of current [CO2] also increased growth rates both with and without a concurrent temperature increase from 12C to 15C. Another False CO2 Scare Far

too many predictions of CO2-induced catastrophes are treated by alarmists as sure to occur, when real-world observations show these doomsday scenarios to be highly unlikely or even virtual impossibilities , said Craig Idso, Ph.D., author of the 2009 book CO2, Global Warming and Coral Reefs. The
phenomenon of CO2-induced ocean acidification appears to be no different.

Overfishing inevitable- Subsidies

The Raw Story 5-26-2008 http://rawstory.com/news/afp/Over_80_percent_of_fisheries_overfi_05262008.html
Oceana's campaign has been recognized during a WTO public forum when Director-General Pascal Lamy said, "Today, negotiations on fisheries subsidies in the WTO are in full swing and they are being taken extremely seriously. The Membership realizes the magnitude of what is at stake if these negotiations were to fail. And just in case it would forget, you have placed banners all over Geneva to remind us all of the need to reach an

More than 80 percent of the world's fisheries are at risk from over-fishing and the World Trade Organisation must act urgently to scrap unsustainable subsidies, lobby group Oceana said Monday. "The world's fishing fleets can no longer expect to find new sources of fish," said Courtney Sakai, senior campaign director at Oceana. "If the countries of the world want healthy and abundant fishery resources, they must improve management and decrease the political and economic pressures that lead to overfishing." Based on data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation, the report found that only 17 percent of the
agreement!" The WTO has the single best opportunity to address the fisheries subsidies issue on a global scale, and Oceana is working hard to make sure it does just that. world's known fish stocks are under-exploited or moderately exploited. Particularly overfished are stocks in significant parts of the Atlantic Ocean, the Western Indian Ocean and the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The report said that in the Western Indian Ocean, for example, over 70 percent of known stocks have been fully exploited, while the remainder are overexploited, depleted or currently at a stage of recovery. Oceana also notes that emerging fishing grounds have large numbers of stocks with unknown status, saying that it opens them up to the risk of overfishing and depletion. The group estimated that current fishing subsidies are worth at least 20 billion dollars annually, or the value of 25 percent of the world's catch, giving strong economic incentives for overfishing. "The scope and magnitude of these subsidies is so great that reducing them is the single greatest action that can be

It urged countries to push to "reduce and control subsidies" during the current World Trade Organisation negotiations on fisheries subsidies. The WTO last November proposed the elimination of most subsidies for the fishing industry in a compromise package.
taken to protect the world's oceans," according to the group.

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AT: Biodiversity Add-On

Biodiversity loss is empirically denied and there is a litany of alternate casualties
Bruno, associate professor UNC Chapel Hill, 10 [John F., May 3, Biodiversity Loss Continues Unabated Despite International Efforts,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-f-bruno/biodiversity-loss-continu_b_561699.html]

The earth's plant and animal species are disappearing at a sobering rate due to pressures including habitat loss, climate change, pollution and over-harvesting. Despite a few success stories and steps in the right direction, we are falling far short of stemming these losses. Biodiversity is the entire range of biological variety in the world, including the diversity of genotypes, species and ecosystems. It can be measured on levels from DNA
Betting on biodiversity loss is a pretty sure thing. molecules all the way up to broad taxonomic categories such as families and phyla. Monitoring the fate of any of these aspects of biodiversity at a global scale is a daunting task. Thus, we know little about the rates and

2002 Convention on Biological Diversity. Dr. Stuart Butchart of the UNEP World Conservation the problem by assembling an international team of conservation scientists (that I was part of) to calculate trends in global biodiversity. The idea was to assemble several dozen indices that we had sound, long term data for including population trends for birds and other vertebrates and the loss of habitats such as forests, seagrass beds and coral reefs. As we recently reported in Science magazine, our analysis indicates that biodiversity has continued to decline over the past four decades with no detectable abatement for most indices. This is largely due to increased pressures resulting from human population growth, economic development and globalization but it also seems clear that
patterns of biodiversity loss or the effectiveness of global mitigation plans such as the

Monitoring Centre and BirdLife International tackled

our international response to the biodiversity crisis has been inadequate. Every aspect of biodiversity on earth is unique. The species that we have already driven extinct, from the Dodo to the Tasmanian Tiger, can never be resurrected or replaced. As a field ecologist, I have been lucky to experience and work on some truly wondrous examples of the earth's biodiversity from the tide pools of the Pacific Northwest to rainforests in Costa Rica to alpine habitats in the Rocky Mountains. The downside of my otherwise fantastic job is that I witness the degradation of nature firsthand. The coral reefs of the Florida Keys of today bear little resemblance to the

. Over the last two decades I have observed and documented striking biodiversity losses even on isolated and seemingly untouched reefs.
underwater jungles patrolled by large sharks that I snorkeled over as a kid 35 years ago

They dont solve farming, city expansion or the growth in infrastructure --- biodiversity is damned if we do and damned if we dont
Telegraph, 10 [January, Human expansion leading to 'extinction crisis', UN warns, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/biodiversity/6964798/Human-expansionleading-to-extinction-crisis-UN-warns.html]

Ban will say that human expansion is wiping out species at about 1,000 times the "natural" or "background" rate, and that "business as usual is not an option", the BBC reports. The expansion of human cities, farming and infrastructure is the main reason behind the drop in biodiversity. The SecretaryDignitaries including UN chief Ban Ki-moon and German premier Angela Merkel will speak at the launch in Berlin. Mr General is expected to argue that world leaders must find effective ways of protecting forests, watersheds, coral reefs and other ecosystems. The UN will say that as natural systems such as forests and wetlands disappear,

The rate of species loss leads some biologists to say that we are in the middle of the Earth's sixth great extinction, the previous five stemming from natural events as asteroid impacts. In the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), governments agreed to achieve a "significant reduction" in the rate of biological diversity by 2010. But despite some regional successes, the target is not going to be met; some analyses suggest that nature
humanity loses the services they currently provide for free, such as the purification of air and water, protection from extreme weather events and the provision of materials for shelter and fire. loss is accelerating rather than decelerating. "We are facing an extinction crisis," Jane Smart, director of the biodiversity conservation group with the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), told the BBC.

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AT: Disease Add-on

No impact diseases evolve to be more mild and humans evolve past vulnerabilities.
Achenbach 3 (Joel, Washington Post Staff Writer, "Our Friend, the Plague," Nov, http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0311/resources_who.html)KM
Whenever a new disease appears somewhere on our planet, experts invariably pop up on TV with grave summations of the problem, usually along the lines of, "We're in a war against the microbes"pause for dramatic effect "and the microbes are winning." War, however, is a ridiculously overused metaphor and probably should be bombed back to the Stone Age . Paul Ewald, a biologist at the University of Louisville, advocates a different approach to lethal microbes. Forget trying to obliterate them, he says, and focus instead on how they co-evolve with humans. Make them mutate in the right direction. Get the powers of evolution on our side. Disease organisms can, in fact, become less virulent over time. When it was first recognized in Europe around 1495, syphilis killed its human hosts within months. The quick progression of the diseasefrom infection to deathlimited the ability of syphilis to spread. So a new form evolved, one that gave carriers years to infect others. For the same reason, the common cold has become less dangerous. Milder strains of the virus
spread by people out and about, touching things, and shaking handshave an evolutionary advantage over more debilitating strains. You can't spread a cold very easily if you're incapable of rolling out of bed. This process has already weakened all but one virulent strain of malaria: Plasmodium falciparum succeeds in part because bedridden victims of the disease are more vulnerable to mosquitoes that carry and transmit the parasite. To mitigate malaria, the secret is to improve housing conditions. If people put screens on doors and windows, and use bed nets, it creates an evolutionary incentive for Plasmodium falciparum to become milder and self-limiting. Immobilized people protected by nets and screens can't easily spread the parasite, so evolution would favor forms that let infected people walk around and get bitten by mosquitoes. There are also a few high-tech tricks for nudging microbes in the right evolutionary direction. One company, called MedImmune, has created a flu vaccine using a modified influenza virus that thrives at 77F instead of 98.6F, the normal human body temperature. The vaccine can be sprayed in a person's nose, where the virus survives in the cool nasal passages but not in the hot lungs or elsewhere in the body. The immune system

produces antibodies that make the person better prepared for most normal, nasty influenza bugs. Maybe someday we'll barely notice when we get colonized by disease organisms. We'll have co-opted them. They'll be like in-laws, a little annoying but tolerable. If a friend sees us sniffling, we'll just say, Oh, it's nothingjust a touch of plague.

Disease burns out before it can cause extinction lethal viruses will kill their hosts too fast.
Understanding Evolution 7 (Website on Evolution from UC Berkeley, "Evolution from a virus's view," December, http://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/news/071201_adenovirus)KM
Since transmission is a matter of life or death for pathogen lineages , some evolutionary biologists have focused on this as the key to understanding why some have evolved into killers and others cause no worse than the sniffles. The idea is that there may be an evolutionary trade-off between virulence and transmission. Consider a virus that exploits its human host more than most and so produces more offspring than most. This virus does a lot of damage to the host in other words, is highly virulent. From the virus's perspective, this would, at first, seem like a good thing; extra resources mean extra offspring, which generally means high evolutionary fitness. However, if the viral reproduction completely

incapacitates the host, the whole strategy could backfire: the illness might prevent the host from going out and coming into contact with new hosts that the virus could jump to. A victim of its own success, the viral lineage could go extinct and become an evolutionary
dead end. This level of virulence is clearly not a good thing from the virus's perspective.

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AT: Environmental Leadership Add-On

No solvency US efforts lack credibility, the plan would be perceived as desperate political spin.
Geiselman 6/11/2007 (Bruce - Waste News, Staff Writer for Waste News Bush Pledges Leadership on Global Warming, Lexis-Nexis) Bush has pledged the United States would spearhead an international effort to address global climate change, but environmental advocacy groups immediately voiced skepticism. Bush, speaking to reporters in Washington on May 31, unveiled a plan for the United States to convene a meeting between nations that are major emitters of greenhouse gases.
President Bush said he wants to complete a new framework before the end of 2008 for reducing greenhouse gas emissions after 2012 when the Kyoto protocol expires. The United States refused to ratify the 1997 international agreement. Bush said it would be essential for nations with rapidly growing economies, including China and India, to participate in talks. Those countries, with rapidly growing energy demands, also have resisted mandatory cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. White House spokesmen said the president's proposal would address both energy and economic security by accelerating the development and use of clean energy technologies. The participating countries would agree to international targets, but each country would achieve its emissions goal by establishing its own programs and interim targets. The United States would assist other countries by providing them with access to emerging clean energy technologies and eliminating

Bush said the United States has been a leader in developing cleaner, cheaper and more reliable energy technologies including solar, wind, nuclear and clean coal technologies. ``In recent years, science has deepened our understanding of climate change and opened new possibilities for confronting it,'' Bush said. ``The United States takes this issue seriously.'' Leaders in the environmental movement critical of the Bush administration's record on global warming quickly rejected the president's latest proposal unveiled before the start of an international summit. ``This is a transparent effort to divert attention from the president's refusal to accept any emissions reductions proposals at [the June 6-8] G8 summit,'' said Philip Clapp, president of the National Environmental Trust. ``After sitting out talks on global warming for years, the Bush administration doesn't have very much credibility with other governments on this issue.''
tariffs and other barriers to those technologies. Bush also called on international development banks to make low-cost financing readily available for developing countries.

No solvency countries dont want the US to lead but rather to contribute.

Clifton 4/19/2007 (Eli Inter Press Service, IPS staff, World Opposed to US as Global Cop, CommonDreams,
http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/04/19/617/)

The world public rejects the U.S. role as a world leader, but still wants the United States to do its share in multilateral efforts and does not support a U.S. withdrawal from international affairs, says a poll released Wednesday. The survey respondents see the United States as an unreliable world policeman, but views are split on whether the superpower should reduce its overseas military bases. The people of the United States generally agreed with the rest of the world that their country should not remain the worlds preWASHINGTON eminent leader or global cop, and prefer that it play a more cooperative role in multilateral efforts to address world problems. The poll, the fourth in a series released by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and WorldPublicOpinion.org since the latter half of 2006, was conducted in China, India, United States, Indonesia, Russia, France, Thailand, Ukraine, Poland, Iran, Mexico, South Korea, Philippines, Australia, Argentina, Peru, Israel, Armenia and the Palestinian territories.

humanitarian military intervention, labour and in international trade, . Those surveys found that the international public generally favoured more multilateral efforts to curb genocides and more far-reaching measures to protect labour rights and combat climate change than their governments have supported

environmental standards

The three previous reports covered attitudes toward and global warming

this report confirms other polls which have shown that world opinion of the United States is bad and getting worse, however this survey more closely examines the way the world public would want to see Washington playing a positive role in the international community. Although all 15 of the countries polled rejected the idea that, the U.S. should continue to be the pre-eminent world leader in solving international problems, only Argentina and the Palestinian territories say it should
to date. Steven Kull, editor of WorldPublicOpinion.org, notes that withdraw from most efforts to solve international problems.

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The 1ac claims that satellite technology provides a liberating form of prediction is nave, rather, satellite predictions are an essential element for the smooth functioning of a neoliberal consuming passive CITIZENRY.
Sturken, 2001 (Marita, associate professor at the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Southern California, Desiring the Weather: El Nio, the Media, and California Identity Public
Culture 13.2 (2001) 161-189)

The sexual undertones of the weather are clearly offset by the sense of comfort and routine that is provided to viewers by the Weather Channel--weather as wallpaper or weather as Zen. Its ongoing presence, its reliability--not simply the sense it provides of a reliable forecast but rather the fact that it is always on, always reporting, always there when one can't sleep at night--and its no-nonsense fare provides a sense of something stable in a chaotic media environment and an unstable world. On further examination, weather prediction reveals itself to be a blend of science, eroticism, and sentiment, one that constructs citizens as participants in the production of weather narratives. Weather is also one of the means through which people situate themselves in the world, not only as local citizens but as national and global citizens. In cold weather climates, such as the Midwest, for instance, the capacity to survive long cold winters is an important aspect of local pride, as is the sunshine of the Southwest and California. Today, satellite technology is a central aspect not only of how the weather is visualized but also of how viewers locate themselves regionally, nationally, and globally. A satellite image situates the viewer from a point of view in space. In that most local news weather maps define weather within a hundred-mile radius, this emphasizes a regional situation for viewers. But for many viewers of cable channels such as the Weather Channel, this emphasizes a positioning within the nation and the globe. This is one of the consequences of the fact that, as Jody Berland puts it, we now view the skies looking down, rather than up. 18 Indeed, it is remarkable on the Weather Channel how rarely one sees weather at ground level. Satellite images not only situate us geographically, they also offer both a broader narrative of global unity and planetary connection and a full range of aesthetic pleasures. 19 Like photographs of space, satellite photographs demonstrate a pleasure in large-scale mapping and fulfill the modernist [End Page 171] promise of the photographic camera to see beyond the human eye. As Berland writes, "For satellite views of the earth's surface show us not only the weather (if you are trained to read them) but also the following: this is one planet, one life, one world, one dream. This is the view of the globe from the eye of god. . . . This is the gorgeous, metaphysical triumph of the technological sublime, displaying itself in perfect harmony with the arcane laws of nature." 20 The technological achievement of the satellite image is its capacity to establish a singular perspective from space at which the weather consumers are invited to place themselves as omniscient viewers. The construction of the weather citizen is also specifically about the activity of weather watching as one of civic duty. Here, weather media taps into a long tradition of weather volunteerism. Over the last century, the National Weather Service has deployed thousands of volunteers to measure their local weather in its Cooperative Weather Observer Program. This activity of recording data was envisioned from the onset as a patriotic activity, inspired by the writings of Thomas Jefferson, who had imagined a "republic of yeoman farmers, all gathering and sharing agricultural data about storms and the dates of the first and last frosts, all for the good of the country." 21 While many of the weather stations are now automated, there remain 11,000 volunteers today. Weather observation activity is also incorporated into local news shows in which viewers often call in from around the region to report on events in weather emergencies--an activity that is presented in the weather newscast as an act of citizenship, particularly when the volunteers are young. The tradition of amateur weather observation, with its responsible citizen who provides information to fellow citizens, has evolved into the contemporary global weather consumer. Participation in chat groups on Weather.com, which features many pedagogical elements such as a glossary of weather terms, is
Yet, it remains too simple to ascribe serious weather watching merely to a displaced sexuality. often couched in terms of the civic duty of weather monitoring through the consumption of weather media. The Weather Channel also tells a global story in its hourly forecast, with weather newscasters scanning the planet in

the Weather Channel is deliberately scripted to talk to the viewer as a consumer, rather than as a worker, constructing the weather viewer as a middleclass consumer of leisure activities: "On the Weather Channel, there is no weather-for-work, only for leisure and consumer [End Page 172] time. . . . In the Weather Channel's world, people do
a few sentences, in order to construct the weather media consumer as one with the privilege to participate in global citizenship. Andrew Ross writes that everything but work; weather affects how they 'drive' to work, and travel to work if they are 'business travellers,' but it has no bearing on their actual work environments, which are assumed to be immune to weather. . . . Ideal

Weather prediction is a commodity, not only as a staple of the media industry but as the means to insure the safety of much business activity and to protect the material goods of particular lifestyles. In fact, in September 1999, weather futures were officially listed as a commodity on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and many brokerage firms are establishing weather desks. 23 Central to weather's value is the belief that technology now allows us to predict what it will do.
Weather Channel 'citizens' are assumed to be comfortably off, white-collar, with cars, boats, vacation options, families, and gardens and homes that require extensive upkeep." 22

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The affs belief that the state is the focus for our environmental politics ensures the bare minimum of response that will never address the root causes of environment change.
Hay, Department Head of Political Science and international Studies at the University of Birmingham, 1994 [Colin, Environmental Security and State Legitimacy, Capital Nature Socialism (CNS), March, p. 86-90 ] The increased openness of the global economy, for example, undermines the demand-side strategies of the Keynesian welfare state.8 This enables two potential crisis displacement strategies: one is the displacement of responsibility back to the economy for economically-induced environmental degradation (the strategy pursued by the Reagan/Bush
government in the United States, for instance, through environmental deregulation effectively a governmental washing of the hands of responsibility for environmental pollution); the other is a more interventionist strategy capitalizing upon the supply-side advantages of investment in environmentally-sustainable niche-markets, a strategy pursued at various times by both the German and Japanese states. Despite these qualifications, however, what remains of crucial importance to any understanding of the state's ability to respond to threats to environmental securit y is Habermas's recognition of the importance of both structural characteristics and subjective

specific manifestations of the fundamental and global environmental-economic contradiction, though precipitated initially within the global economic system, become displaced to the level of the nation-state. These manifestations then are articulated as rationality crises of the political system, i.e., as political crises of environmental regulation. The state's inability to respond to the root causes is likely to become the focus of political mobilization within civil society. In such circumstances, environmental pressure groups express individuals' experiences in terms of living through a crisis scenario, thereby find resonance, potentially inducing a crisis of political legitimacy. At this stage, the potential options facing the political system of an advanced capitalist state can be arrayed hypothetically on a scale between two extremes. The first is the systematic and wholesale reorganization of the economic system (its growth imperative, mode of regulation, and the relations of production it embodies) such that it is possible to overcome the incompatibility between the political rationality of state economic regulation and the requirements of environmental sustainability. The second is to do nothing. In practice, neither strategy is feasible. The former option would require a fundamental restructuring of the state's decisive economic nucleus to the extent that it could no longer be described as capitalist. Such a strategy simply could not be sustained within a global capitalist world economic dynamic. The latter would involve a threat to continued political legitimacy and ultimately a threat to the consensually-sustained stability of the state. In practice, then, the state's actual range of options is far more limited: on the one hand, by the necessity of global econo mic dynamics, premised on the growth imperative; and, on the
perceptions of crisis.9 3. Environmental Crisis and State Legitimacy Constructively reworking Habermas's account of the logic of crisis displacement, the idea advanced here is that other, by the necessity of continued state legitimacy (in turn dependent upon some responsiveness to the health, environmental, and security concerns of citizens). Any state-sponsored strategy for fundamental structural change to remove the growth imperative would result in an equally destabilizing crisis of a radically constrained economy within an unchanged global economic dynamic, or would be reliant upon an unprecedented concerted inter-state response. Similarly, within an advanced democratic mode of political representation, a political regime will never fail to make some response to a fundamental crisis of the legitimacy upon which its continued

The crucial point, however, is that states reliant upon societal consent respond at a largely tactical or cosmetic level to threats to their legitimacy and thus to subjective perceptions of crisis, rather than to the contradictions and discontinuities which precipitate such threats to legitimacy. Thus, the underlying rationality of democratic representation encourages states to restrict their responses to such crises to the minimum that they perceive necessary for short-term restoration of legitimacy. This is likely to be achieved through a combination of symptom amelioration, token gesturism, the "greening" of legitimating political ideology,10 and the displacement of the crisis in a variety of different directions downward into civil society (making individuals responsible on a personal level for the response to environmental crisis by facilitating "green" consumer choice) or upward onto a global political agenda or "sidewards," presenting the crisis as, for instance, another the state legitimation problem. As a consequence of such minimal and state-specific responses to globalized environmental risk, the crisis inevitably deepens,11 subsequently becoming re-articulated as a further and more fundamental environmentally-induced rationality and ultimately legitimation crisis of the state. The representational logic of the state structurally selects for a strategy of attempting to resecure legitimacy at minimum cost through minor superstructural tinkering. Indeed, the intra-state conjunctural response will only give way to the concerted global 12 response necessary to address the causes of such profound environmental crisis when two conditions are met : First, the state can no longer secure its legitimacy base through strategies of scapegoating, crisis displacement, and token gesturing; and second, when the perceived costs of such a direct response to a profound crisis scenario are deemed to be less destabilizing than the corresponding loss of state legitimacy produced by a continued failure to make such a response.13 To take two examples, the problems of ozone depletion (perceived high consequence risk, low cost response) and global warming (high consequence risk, high cost response) lie at opposite ends of this continuum. It is therefore not surprising that ozone diplomacy and the Montreal Protocol are held up as the supreme example of concerted global action to avert ecological damage. However, the likelihood is that there will be no similar global protocol or response to global warming, deforestation, or Third World environmental
existence is premised. degradation. This was indeed demonstrated by the superficiality of the measures agreed at the recent Rio Earth Summit: the token gesturing of the US-diluted treaty to curb "greenhouse gas" emissions; the lack of any commitment to halt deforestation; and the advanced industrial nations' failure to pledge even five per cent of the UN's conservative estimate needed to even begin to address Third World environmental crisis.14

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The 1acs construction of climate change as an existential threat does not result in a benign verification regime. Because of the implication of threat the 1ac will become the justification for war against carbon emitters creating endless cycles of violence. Our alternative is to rethink international politics in the role of the nation-state in favor of strategies that engage questions of povertys role in environmental change.
Dalby, Professor in the Department of Geography and Environmental Studies at Carleton University Ph.D. from Simon Fraser University, author of Creating the Second Cold War and Environmental Security co-editor of The Geopolitics Reader1999, [Simon, Contested Grounds: Threats from the south? Geopolitics, Equity, and Environmental Security. 175-7]
This chapter has suggested the existence of some obvious contradictions if conventional notions of security are uncritically linked to global-environmental concerns. Focusing on geopolitical concerns-reasserts traditional understandings of foreign policy; primacy is given to military interpretations of options and attention is placed on threats to established political order. When coupled to the access-to resources theme, fears of demographic competition between North and South, or nuclear weapons and missile proliferation scares, geopolitical specifications of security in terms of external threats once again suggest an American-led security order defined against

. Insofar as these geopolitical themes dominate discussion and debate about future U.S. global political roles, coupling these themes to environmental security is likely to perpetuate patterns of violence and domination rather than work to protect environments and their peoples. A further danger of thinking of environment in security terms is that police actions and military interventions may be legitimated. Israel took unilateral action against an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981, and the United States objected to a chemical plant in Libya some years later, so precedents for such military intervention exist. The
a variety of external antagonists. The traditional geopolitical notions of security emphasized territorial control, superior alliance systems, and technological superiority in military matters political difficulties of organizing these kinds of operations, given the lack of global consensus on the nature of environmental crises or the culpability of specific societies in environmental degradation, would no doubt be

one obvious scenario suggests the possibility of a military coalition confronting China over greenhouse and/or CFC emissions if it continues with its coal-based development trajectory and persists with CFC production in violation of international agreements." Might cruise missiles and smart bombs be the solution to future noncompliant rogue CFC plants? While the possibilities of global military action on these issues seems very farfetched in the mid 1990s, they may become more likely in the future to the extent that environmental degradation is thought of as a traditional security issue.
considerable. But Of course most advocates of the environmental security approach see its framework as a means to enhance responses to environmental problems and to facilitate diplomatic accommodation prior to the escalation of

But dangers arise if they fail to adequately take into account how the world is currently constituted by hierarchies of violence and inequality. They also often ignore the fact that those who benefit from the current inequalities have sometimes adopted the logic of environmental security in ways that may act to perpetuate the status quo.74 If the planet really is in-the grave-peril that many environmentalists argue it is, then this is no time for political thinking rendered fuzzy by unexamined premises or unacenvironmental difficulties to matters of international confrontation. knowledged ethnocentric geopolitical presuppositions.

The discussions of reformulating security also coincide with the widespread recognition of the limits of formal sovereignty in the modem world. Economic globalization, the speed of air travel, the interconnection of many places in the world by phone, fax, and electronic mail, the power of international advertising, and the collective-vulnerability of peoples in many places to pollution and environmental degradation all suggest that distance and political boundaries are not as important as they once were. On the other hand the distances between the rich who have access to the airplanes and fax machines and the
poor of the planet who do not, seem to many in the South to be getting wider and the chasm more difficult to shout, or scream, across." Where conventional development policies are followed in the South, the gaps between elites connected to the global economy and the rest of the population reliant on local resources also sometimes seem enormous.

"progressive" environmental security advocates lack a clear political constituency in the North." There is a need to fundamentally rethink international politics, the role of militarization, and the global economy and to challenge the presupposition of a limitless nature that has been taken for granted for so long. It is also necessary to see debt and poverty as an inevitable part of the contemporary political economy, and one that is an important part of contemporary insecurity for much of the world's population. Debt relief and community development are very different security priorities, but ones that are clearly necessary to environmental security understood as the preservation of renewable resources for human survival.
Like other projects seeking to rethink politics seriously in light of environmental considerations, the

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Weather Security Link Extensions And, the affirmatives reliance on modernizing our weather surveillance technology in service of prediction of future weather events is not in the service of the most vulnerable; rather, the affirmative is an expression of the needs of commercialism to find ever more justifications for its production. Sturken, 2001 (Marita, associate professor at the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Southern California, Desiring the Weather:
El Nio, the Media, and California Identity Public Culture 13.2 (2001) 161-189)
Weather Disaster and the Politics of Prediction

Much of the history of weather observation and prediction has been the translation into scientific and technological language and devices of the so-called folk knowledge of farmers, fishermen, and lighthouse keepers and the contributions of amateur weather observers. 24 The idea of weather observation as a form of national cohesion and connection, in response to the external threat of weather, has also been a part of the burgeoning weather bureaucracy and business of the twentieth century. The National Weather Service (NWS), which was established in the 1970s, followed the Weather Bureau, which was created in 1870 and initially
administered by the War Department and later by the Department of Commerce. 25 The open and accessible information of the NWS has been superceded by commercial weather services, in particular Accu-Weather, which

There are now more than one hundred private companies competing in the commercial weather forecasting industry. (The Weather Channel uses satellite and radar images from the National Weather Service.) Today, large sums of money are invested in weather prediction, and the use of [End Page 173] computers to chart weather patterns has created an increasingly mathematical model of weather forecasting. In 1997, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) established an International Research Institute with $18 million to provide early warnings, through the use of Cray supercomputers, of El Nio and other climate variations that influence drought, floods, and other destructive weather patterns. This investment of funding, which primarily aids business and government interests, places a huge premium on prediction. The El Nio of 1997-98 received a great deal of attention precisely because scientists have much more sophisticated prediction
sells its information to many television stations. 26 systems, in particular the TAO (tropical atmosphere/ocean) high-tech buoys that span the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which were put into place since the last serious El Nio of 1982. The TAO buoys monitor wind, humidity, and water temperature as far down as sixteen hundred feet and transmit this information by satellite to NOAA. 27 This has allowed certain regions of Peru, for instance, to anticipate winter storms and adjust flood control

It must be pointed out, however, that prediction is limited in its impact, even at the level of business. Most weather prediction remains short-term and narrow in scope. Although weather prediction is now considered to be about 85 percent accurate, this does not mean that meteorologists can predict where a storm or tornado will hit. Even the range of computer-based predictions of the impact of the 1997-98 El Nio could not target exact areas of impact. Seabrook notes that the intense round-the-clock coverage of the approach of Hurricane Floyd in September 1999 did little to help prepare for the storm; indeed it may have had adverse effects on preparation. He writes, "The National Weather Service's Floyd forecast provoked the largest evacuation in American history, and it turned out that very few of the people who left their homes needed to go. Almost all of the expensive beach houses that you saw on television were unharmed; it was the farmers inland who were wiped out by the flooding that followed the storm, and most people weren't prepared for that." 29 The weather media's emphasis on prediction, which is fueled by technology, also elides the degree to which people throughout the world are differently impacted by weather because of class and economic differences. The prediction of potential tornadoes will be useless to those who can only afford to live in a [End Page 174] trailer in northern Florida, just as the long-range information that impending monsoons will be extreme can do little to save the lives of those in India and Bangladesh whose homes will be destroyed. Hence, the contemporary imperative for accuracy in weather prediction and the need to make weather a science have ultimately had little impact on the effects of weather on the lives of most people. This imperative is fueled by commercial interests, and it is much more indicative of shifting social values rather than science's capacity to improve lives.
systems. 28

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Weather Security Link Extensions Furthermore, the assertion of the immediacy of threats relies reinforces the notion that only the state can act, resulting in militarized solutions and citizen quietism. Do not be seduced by the Affirmatives call to action; their environmental apocalyptic visions creates ineffective policies and reinforces the notion that we are all in a state of emergency. Dalby 09 (Simon, Ph.D and Professor in the Department of Geography and Environmental Studies at Carleton University, security and environmental
change, P46)

The term "security" is highly contested in both scholarly and usage (Dalby 1997, 2002; Steve Smith 2005). Linking it to environment complicates matters even further, and there is no commonly agreed understanding of how these terms might be linked or whether they should be. Nonetheless this is repeatedly done when alarms about environment are turned into questions of supposedly high political priority (Hartmann et al. 2005). The politics of security thus is
a crucial part of any analysis that links environment with discussions of security. Who invokes an emergency situation requiring a security response is part of the matter; but so too is the specification of who or what is endangered in these circumstances. All this is what is meant by "securitization"; the active processes of invoking security and setting in motion policies and actions on the basis of presenting matters as threatening. This has been done repeatedly in the last few discussions of environment, but not usually with much success securitization is a mode of analysis most closely associated with Copenhagen school of security studies that drew on the

security was in part a speech act, a performance of the invocation of danger as requiring extraordinary action (Buzan et al. 1998) Security is in this mode of thinking, not a simple term nor an objectively agreed Upon condition. When used in discussions of politics it is a powerful word, desired state as well as a threat to that state that requires protective measures. When something is securitized, made the referent object of those measures and constructed in policy discourse as in need of being secured, it then becomes the focus of state actions. Resources are mobilized, troops may be deployed, surveillance under-taken. Emergency measures may be called for that necessitates the suspension of normal rules of law, and the granting of additional powers to police or military agencies. In the process, who and what precisely is secured becomes important. Claims by rulers to be acting in the common good are frequent in these circumstances but frequently such claims turn out to be misleading at best, and at worst a strategy to stay in power by using violence and fear as tools of rule (Fierke 2007). Insofar as environment is portrayed as a threat, and international stability is upset by migration or conflicts over resources, these long-established patters may recur. But they may not do much to deal with either the threats or their causes. As much of the rest of this book suggests, this is in part because the attribution of the source of danger to external causes, rather than construing it as a consequence of metropolitan patterns of consumption, turns out not to deal with many environmental matters very effectively. Neither are all invocations of danger necessarily effective
attire in linguistics and elsewhere to point out that (fierke 2007). Politicians who invoke threats are not always successful at convincing their audiences of the imminent dangers or of their capabilities for dealing with the threats they portray. Thus security is a political act of mobilization of support for actions, which requires that the audience accept the definition of danger and agrees at least tacitly to the use of security measures to deal with the situation. If the narrative is not convincing, or the costs of dealing with the danger seem to outweigh the potential threat, then securitization is unlikely to be successful. If the tools to deal with the task are not available then attempting to securitize an issue is likewise unlikely to be effective, unless the task and the tools are redefined so that the threat is amenable to those tools. Finally, there is of course the logical possibility that the audience does buy the argument and agrees to the mobilization of

the result is an ineffective policy response regardless of resources but the result is an ineffective policy response regardless of the initial securitization.
resources, but

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Weather Security Impact extensions Plan gets redeployed for military operations: weather monitoring key to military adventurism. Sturken, 2001 (Marita, associate professor at the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Southern California, Desiring the Weather:
El Nio, the Media, and California Identity Public Culture 13.2 (2001) 161-189)

In the United States, there has long been a military connection to weather prediction. Of the human endeavors that necessitate weather observation--such as farming, fishing, building, and traveling--waging war is of course one, and the science of meteorology has been heavily influenced by the needs of the military and the space industry. Ross notes that the legitimation of meteorology as science corresponded with the beginning of the aeronautical industry, which required "accurate information about the atmosphere." He adds, "The new meteorology proved a vital military asset during the Great War, and weather forecasting soon became a lucrative commercial service for air travel after the war." 30 In addition, according to Berland, continuous satellite-generated weather forecasts create a consumer market for satellite surveillance services that would otherwise be completely funded by government and military agencies. 31 In this light, weather prediction technology is not only inextricably tied to military needs, but serves to underwrite them as well.

Turns case: The discourse of preparedness allows neoliberalism to pose as civic government. Sturken, 2001 (Marita, associate professor at the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Southern California, Desiring the Weather:
El Nio, the Media, and California Identity Public Culture 13.2 (2001) 161-189)

the narrative of preparedness does not simply operate at the level of privatized commercialism. It allows commercial businesses to speak the language of civic government and to place themselves in the protective voice with which governments speak to citizens in times of disaster. [End Page 179] Municipal governments in Southern California used the El Nio weather event as a
Yet, means of reassuring their citizens of the functions of local government. In this light, the creation of the artificial sand dunes on the beach in Santa Monica can be seen not only as a minor obstacle for winter storms (in a serious winter storm, which, by the way, did not occur, they would have had little effect) but also as a performance to assure those who visit the beach and live near it that the government was doing something to protect them.

Several local businesses produced El Nio pamphlets for customers, in which they effectively spoke the language of the civic. For example, the local Von's Supermarket chain collaborated with the local NBC news station, KFWB news radio, and the American Red Cross on a pamphlet entitled "If El Nio Visits Southern California
. . . We'll Be Prepared!" The pamphlet bears all the signifiers of civic participation--a place to list important telephone numbers and an emergency checklist--while it stresses the essential participation of NBC, KFWB, and Von's: "Lock your windows, doors, and turn off the utilities. If NBC4 or KFWB 980-AM predict heavy winds nail plywood over the windows. . . . Your local Von's markets are ready to prepare you for El Nio--they're a

The contemporary experience of citizenship is, of course, that of the citizen-consumer. Indeed, U.S. citizens are interpellated as citizens more effectively through advertising than through the traditional forms of electoral politics. Clearly, promotional tactics such as these are intended to speak to potential consumers as if the purchase of preparedness items or the viewership of the evening news is part of their role as citizens. Just as the Weather Channel constructs viewers as national and global citizens, television news viewership--in particular in times of disaster--constructs viewers as members of both local and national audiences. When businesses speak the language of the civic, they are thus couching consumerism in terms of duty. Interestingly, though, this duty is conceived as being different for citizens in different locales: if Californians are entreated to consume tactics of preparedness, citizens elsewhere are encouraged to consume California's disaster.
great resource for the nonperishable food, toiletries and other supplies you'll need."

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Weather Security Alternative extensions

Our alternative is of the utmost political importance. Individuals can shape governmental decision making. Political life below the threshold of the state precedes macropolitical change. Barnett, Research Council Fellow in the School of Social and Environmental Enquiry at the University of Melbourne , 2001 [Jon, The Meaning of
Environmental Security: Ecological Politics and Policy in the New Security Era, Chapter 9, 151-2]

individual action can alter the structures of power. This is based on while structures influence agency, agency can influence structures (Giddens 1984). Second, politics and democracy can be revitalised through enhanced communication, dialogue, or conversation between parties (Dryzek 1990). Both principles are well
Two broad principles underpin this chapter's vision of revitalised politics and polycentric governance. First, the premise that established in contemporary social theory, but are nevertheless problematic. This does not mean that they should be abandoned; they are, in this book's view, persuasive. The following discussion should not be read as one author's blueprint for a new world order. These are suggestions made to demonstrate the possibilities of a revitalised and more personal politics and a more respon-ve system of governance. Dryzek provides a timely warning here: If the twentieth century holds one political lesson, it is that we should beware of anyone peddling ... blueprints, be they socialist paradises, fascist Reichs to last a thousand years, or free market utopias popularized in the

The exact structure and nature of any new system cannot be predicted; how it manifests itself (if at all) will be a function of how people participate in the future (Walker 1988). What follows should be seen as tentative
Anglo-American world in the 1980s. (Dryzek 1997: 192) suggestions offered as a contribution to future dialogue. It is important to note that the author's experience of Australasian political systems inevitably conditions these observations. Further, recognising that responsibility for environmental insecurity rests primarily with industrialised countries and the majority of their populations, the following discussion is biased towards reform in these places. This is not to say that reforms are not necessary in

A human-centred environmental security concept runs the risk of depicting people as passive recipients of strategies to enhance environmental security. Yet because human security means rethinking politics, part of the task must be to consider the role of people as actors deliberately seeking to shape social and political life; that is, as agents of security. Agency is defined as 'the power of actors to operate independently of the determining constraints of social structure ... the volitional, purposive nature of human activity as opposed to its constrained, determined aspects' (Jary and Jary 1995: 10). The difficulty with agency lies in the structureagency dialectic. No-one is wholly autonomous from the influence of social structures and their constraining power cannot be discounted. Nevertheless, to advocate agency is to see power in a positive way as the ability of people, individually and collectively, to resist or reshape restrictive and oppressive structures.
industrialising countries; the focus here, however, is on the larger source of the problem.

Social Movements are critical to any agenda for social change.

Barnett, Research Council Fellow in the School of Social and Environmental Enquiry at the University of Melbourne, 2001 [Jon, The Meaning of
Environmental Security: Ecological Politics and Policy in the New Security Era, Chapter 9, 151-2]

One of the positive aspects of globalisation is the `bottom-up' proliferation of social movements. These are an assemblage of individuals linked intersubjectively to one another, based on shared identity and a common -fabric of relations and practices' with 'some degree of collective consciousness' (Latham 1996: 101). The upsurge of citizen action through these groups has been a notable feature of political life and environmental restoration initiatives in recent times. The phenomenon has caught the attention of critical theorists, including Habermas, who identifies these groups as carriers of a communicative ethic, not least because they tend to debate their identity, negotiate their actions, hold to the principles of free discourse, and are not interested in reaching power but in redistributing it (Habermas 1981). Giddens says the value of social movements lies in their `remoralization of a sphere of life
denuded of moral meaning' (1985: 320), and Beck identifies these as `the-new constellation of a global subpolitics' which occurs outside the formal structures of governance (1996: 17). It is tempting to identify these as the basis of 'global civil society' (Lipschutz and Mayer 1996), but the value of these groups needs to be put into perspective. First, it seems overly optimistic to talk of a global civil society when the world system is still fundamentally barbaric, and when the resources and access to political power of these groups are minute relative to the forces generating environmental insecurity (Conca 1995). Second, and depending on one's point of view, these transnational groups are not always 'civil': the US National Rifle Association, for example, has strong links to numerous other countries. Third, whatever governance may become, it is at present a long way from being

The real potential of critical social movements lies in their ability to offer a collective and at times complementary grassroots perspective to nation-states one which is consistent with global priorities (Elliott 1998). They add radically different streams of advice into the policy-making process; Pelling calls this 'a corrective influence on the polity' (1998: 11), while for Haas (1992) it is an `epistemic' function. These groups (and NGOs) foster global awareness, dissolve national membranes, and exploit the positive aspects of communications and transport technology. Social movements are for the most part placeless and in this sense they transcend the conflation of identity with territory, offering the potential for identity to come from recognising interdependence and the numerous affiliations available to all people. For their part, governments need-to create channels to- hear these -alternative global and local perspectives, and need to commit themselves to implementing this advice. Of course, this would mean actively undermining the authority of the state and breaking the monopoly hold of state-bureaucracies
firmly rooted in the deliberations of multifarious special interest groups. -on policy advice, but this authority and monopoly contribute to the non-resolution of environmental insecurity.

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AT: Environmental Security Good

Environmental threats are used to veil the failures of the elite technocratic system and its complicity in developing these harms in the first place.
Dalby, Carleton University, 2002 (Simon, Environmental Security: Ecology or International Relations? paper presented at the annual convention of the International Studies Association, New Orleans, March)
The already weakened societies in many places, with their survival mechanisms disrupted by the impact of new price mechanisms which responded to shortage by raising prices and so making food unavailable to millions, were unable to resist another spate of European imperialism which extended the colonial reach to most of the rest of Africa and Asia. It is here in the interconnections between famine, finance and imperial adventures of the

the Great Transformation" from subsistence to market economies brought with it huge social disruptions as whole modes of life were rapidly, and frequently disastrously, disrupted. The impoverished South and the rich North are the product of dramatic changes in the organization of the world economy in the nineteenth century. The manifestations of the disruptions of the growing global trade in the form of famine were increasingly blamed on the weather just as meteorological data was starting to suggest the importance of large scale weather fluctuations in what would much later become understood in terms of ENSO. Prior explanations in terms of the disruptions of colonial companies or the misplaced policies of imperial administrators were eclipsed by accounts of climatological causes for human misery. The importance of this history for
nineteenth century that so many of the seeds of the emergence of the "third world" and subsequently the "South" were sown. In Karl Polanyi's phrase " understanding contemporary discussions of environmental security is very considerable, not least because it emphasizes the importance of understanding the complexity of traditional and indigenous social systems and their inherent resilience in terms of risk aversion agricultural strategies and moral economies of survival. In contrast the commercial systems that replaced them emphasized maximization of production and the efficacy of market

the lack of purchasing power on the part of numerous marginalized farmers and their families belied the efficacy of market solutions to empire wide famines. But at the same time famines were effectively eradicated as a source of hazard to European populations; the tragic loss of life in Ireland in the 1840s in the so called Great Famine was not to be repeated in Western Europe, whatever about further East in the political turmoil of the first half of the twentieth century. The parallels with the twentieth century can easily be drawn, where famine stalks poverty stricken populations in many places, but the global economies of agribusiness ensure that food supplies are not an issue for the urban populations of the Western metropoles. The attribution of shortage to natural events in the nineteenth century generated much discussion of sun spots and climatological phenomena as the causes of tragedy but also extended discussions to suggest that the "market" was also a natural phenomena thus evading questions of the specific institutional contexts in which the fluctuations of grain production and prices were turned into human tragedy. Environmental determinism has a complex history intimately linked to the moral legitimization of empire in the latter years of the nineteenth century; twenty first century scholars need to remember the complex political history of invoking natural phenomena to explain social events, especially so when arguments concerning global change structure the discussions and invoke universal claims to a common human condition.
forces to supposedly alleviate shortages. But

Securitization results in the eradication of environmental threats through imperialism and military intervention, proven by the militarization of the us-mexican border. Urban, Assistant Professor of Womens Studies and Multicultural Queer Studies at Humboldt State University, 2008 (Jessica LeAnn, Nation, Immigration, and Environmental Security, p.3031)
one must be careful to avoid the "dangers of a simplistic analysis" (Silliman 1999, xi), for as Deudney notes, "Taken to an absurd extremeas national security threats sometimes areseeing environmental degradation in a neighboring country as a national security threat could trigger various types of interventions, a new imperialism of the strong against the weak" (1998, 309). Given the human rights violation and loss of life on the United StatesMexico border owing to its militarization, not to mention the impact of U.S. foreign and economic policy with Mexico, I think this "new imperialism" is already well underway. The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) led a successful lawsuit against members of
My work is deeply informed by the argument that Ranch Rescue, who held four Mexican and two Salvadorian immigrants against their will and assaulted them. In addition, according to Mexican Consul Miguel Escobar, the Mexican government's diplomatic office in Douglas, Arizona, documented at least twenty-four human rights abuse cases between April 1999 and April 2000 connected to "vigilante" activities (Blair Smith 2000). "Vigilante" violence on the United StatesMexico border against Latina/o residents (documented or otherwise) is extremely pervasive. In addition to the shooting death of eighteen-year-old Ezequiel Hernandez by a U.S. Marine, state border policies focusing on "deterrence" (forcing migrants to take more perilous routes into the United States) has led to fatalities from exposure, drowning, and dehydration. The American Civil Liberties Union estimates the number of fatalities on the border resulting from the program of deterrence at 4,000 over the last decade (ACLU 2006a). An accurate accounting of death rates in the United StatesMexico border region is nearly impossible, however, because "no one really knows for sure how many have died. Deaths of undocumented immigrants are usually undercounted because officials simply do not learn of the deaths. In the Southwest deserts, a dead body can be dismembered by wildlife

understanding the processes by which discourses on security identify, frame, and interpret danger has life and death consequences. Understanding this process with respect to mainstream ES discourse on immigration is, therefore, the central preoccupation of
within a few days of death" (Doty 2001, 535). In sum, this book.

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Weather Security AT: Perm

Their reliance and insistence on the sovereign state as the only legitimate ecological actor undermines any possibility for realizing the alternative. Thom Kuehls, professor of political science, Weber University, 1996. [Beyond Sovereign Territory. pp. 33-34]
The state as a sovereign, politically autonomous, bounded, self- regarding, acting unit is "given." It is summoned as an original (re)source. Its originality is reflected in the "enduring anarchic character of international politics ... the striking sameness in the quality of inter- national life through the millennia." Moreover, the
original location of the state is further supported by the "wide assent" that intern a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l t h e o r i s t s h a v e g i v e n t o _ t h i s v i e w o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l life across the cerituries.29 The anarchic system of international politics requires the (enduring) presence of sovereign territorial units to give it its structural character; similarly, these units must have an anarchic interstate to establish their internal structure and external boundaries: National politics is the realm of authority, of administration, and of law. International politics is the realm of power, of struggle, and of accommodation. The international realm is preeminently a political one. The national realm is variously described as being hierarchic, vertical, centralized, heterogeneous, directed, and contrived; the international realm, as being anarchic, horizontal, decentralized, homogeneous, undirected, and mutually adaptive 30

Having inscribed international space by locating the sovereign state within it, Waltz draws the border of the state by opposing it to the interstatethat which required the state to already be there to give it its character. The structure, for all intents and purposes, is in the place. All that is needed is all that is therestates in anarchy. 0; as Waltz puts it: "the structure of the system and its interacting units."31 Two moves are being made here. While international politics is being established as a decentralized realm grounded in the structure of the various sovereign state entities that populate it, national politics is established as a centralized realm in order to provide the necessarily hierarchical spaces to give the anarchical space of international politics its structure. The state must be an unproblematic unified site for Waltz; otherwise his theory of international politics has no foundationand Waltz cannot envision a theory (a structural theory, at least) without a firm foundation. A major portion of my argument in this work is that this conception of sovereign state politics is problematic. To construct an unambiguous relation between sovereignty and territory eliminates the interrelatedness of political reality that exists within and between these geographic boundaries and the rich ambiguity of political existence that swirls about inside the territorial boundaries of the sovereign state. The possibility for a Nietzschean eco-ethic is delivered a deathblow through this move. The presence of hierarchical, vertical, centralized, directed territories known as sovereign states squeezes out the space(s) in-which-my-Nietzschean eco-ethic operatesnot just within the state but across the globe as well, due to the structure that encompasses the global arena. How can an eco-ethic of difference find space to operate in a world structured by the presence of Waltz's sovereign territorial states?

The affs pursuit of globalism is merely a guise for western control of the international these nations are able to impose military threats on non-compliers. instead, the south becomes victim of the norths rampant consumption. Their attempts to reformulate security merely continue the suppression of the worlds marginalized.
Dalby, professor of geography and political economy at Carleton University and co-editor of The Geopolitics Reader and Rethinking Geopolitics, 2002 (Simon,
Security and Ecology in the Age of Globalization, Summer, pp.95-108, ECSP Report, Issue 8)
The Human Development Report 1994 includes environmental factors as one of its human security themes. In its discussion of global threats to human security (dangers caused by the actions of millions of people rather than the deliberate aggression of specific states), the Reports use of environment generally refers to threats such as transboundary air pollution, CFCs and ozone depletion, greenhouse gases and climate changes, biologicaldiversity reduction, coastal marine pollution, and global fish-catch reductions. The Report clearly suggests that environmental threats to human security are best dealt with by preventive and anticipatory action rather than

the Reports assumption of a universal humanity that faces common challenges in a world of huge inequities and political violence has limitations as well as consequences for discussions of sustainable development. The greatest enthusiasm for global approaches to security comes from North America and European states, which are least likely to face direct military confrontation (Stares, 1998). Is the locus of both this enthusiasm and the environmental security debates noted above politically insignificant (Barnett, 2000)? Current consumption patterns threaten the South because of (a) the Norths extensive consumption of resources, and (b) the ecological and social disruptions caused in many rural areas of the South by that resource extraction (Redclift, 1996). While this pattern is not the sole cause of Southern insecurity, it plays an important role overlooked in the neo-Malthusian specifications of conflict caused by resource shortages. If the North merely seeks to maintain its overall pattern of resource consumption within limits that will not disrupt Northern prosperity, merely reformulating the concept of human security will continue to compromise the real security of Southern populations.
crisis intervention. But

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Weather Security AT: Cede the Political The technological mediation of weather provides a source of fascination, where we consume weather catastrophe for pleasure rather than engage in political activism. Sturken, 2001 (Marita, associate professor at the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Southern California, Desiring the Weather:
El Nio, the Media, and California Identity Public Culture 13.2 (2001) 161-189)

Weather is not what it used to be. It is no longer something one goes outside to register, that one experiences on the ground and in the flesh. It has become, rather, a technological experience, seen from satellites and endlessly monitored on television and the Internet. What was once the site of interest for farmers and fishermen has become the
source of pleasure and obsessive viewing for urbanites and suburbanites. What was considered to be a boring, uneventful news item has become a primary, if not quintessential, aspect of contemporary cable television.

What was understood as a natural phenomenon is now the source of technological fantasy. [End Page 161] Yet, weather fascinates precisely
because it appears to be a stable phenomenon of history. The turn of the millennium is defined by technological change, political upheaval throughout the world, economic volatility, and the increased globalization of culture.

weather is a source of fascination precisely because of the comfort it can appear to provide--comfort at the unchanging routine of rain, clouds, and sunshine interrupted by an occasional weather event. The weather's capacity to be both tremendously mundane and spectacularly dramatic is key to its emergence as a source of viewership pleasure . Within the gaze of late-twentieth- and early-twenty-first-century technology, the weather has been transformed from a simple indicator of natural forces into a phenomenon of entertainment. Today's weather is not to be experienced so much as watched and consumed. The primary events that have signaled the new weather as entertainment have been the particularly severe hurricane seasons of the
This postmodern and postindustrial experience is accompanied by an anxiety coupled with optimism not unlike the modern experience at the last turn of the century. In this context, the 1990s, which produced significant damage on the East Coast; the El Nio of 1997-98, followed by La Nia, which began in 1998 and dissipated in 2000; the rise of the Weather Channel as a staple of cable television; and the spate of weather books in the late 1990s for armchair disaster watching, such as Sebastian Junger's The Perfect Storm (which became a film in the summer of 2000) and Erik Larson's Isaac's Storm--both of them about catastrophic storms--and Mike Davis's Ecology of Fear, an analysis of Southern California as the site of weather, natural, and social disaster. 1 Of these events, the El Nio of 1997-98 was perhaps the most anticipated, thanks to new technologies of measuring water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, and it was the event most centered on California. In this essay, I focus on this particular El Nio event in the broader context of the new construction

the 1997-98 El Nio produced a rash of predictions, anxieties, commercial ventures, and dire warnings about the potential demise of the California coastline. As such, it revealed not only the construction of weather as entertainment but also the role played by the weather in a liberal discourse of political denial. The media coverage of this El Nio event made visible the weather's function as a site for desire, both displaced [End Page 162] desire in its many forms and the desire of the spectator's gaze. The embrace of El Nio as an event of meaning demonstrates the
of the weather. Termed "the climate event of the century," ways that contemporary discourses of weather serve to alleviate contemporary postmodern anxieties about fragmentation, rapid social change, and lack of meaning.

Scientific notions of weather creates political quietism and an investment in mass subjectivity. Sturken, 2001 (Marita, associate professor at the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Southern California, Desiring the
Weather: El Nio, the Media, and California Identity Public Culture 13.2 (2001) 161-189)

In the case of disaster coverage, a different set of dynamics is put into play. [End Page 175] Weather disasters are, of course, spectacular television, and they also serve to affirm particular concepts of global unity and community cohesion. A weather disaster--such as an El Nio-inspired flood, landslide, forest fire, or ice storm--is a news story and a site of public fascination precisely because of the ways in which it confers an identity (either local or national) upon the mass public. Michael Warner argues that the mass media has a special relationship to mass disaster because it is "a way of making mass subjectivity available." 32 Hence, disaster constitutes a reassurance about the existence and desirability of the mass subject. Warner writes that disaster coverage is about injury to an "already-abstracted" mass body, one that negates injury to the individual subject. Yet not all weather disasters play well in the new technology of weather viewership. Seabrook and others have noted, for instance, that heat and drought, arguably some of the most devastating weather problems worldwide, tend to get underplayed if not ignored in weather coverage precisely because they don't make for good television or satellite photos. In addition, there is no doubt that an emphasis on weather observation effaces political concerns related to the weather. Weather coverage never discusses the political complexities of who is more vulnerable to weather disaster than others. It has been noted by many critics that an emphasis on prediction consistently elides environmental issues about the impact of human and business activity on the ecology of the planet. The Weather Channel never discusses the current controversy over global warming; indeed, some
meteorologists told Seabrook that they are discouraged from discussing it. Political writer Molly Ivins has criticized the media for the way in which it covered the 1997-98 El Nio without discussing global warming, which she believes was at least partially responsible for the record drought in Texas in the summer of 1998. Ivins attributes this omission to a successful "public relations campaign" by the American Petroleum Institute to discredit scientific evidence of global warming. 33 The nature story of weather prediction thus serves to screen out the politics of disaster and the question of agency. In the case of El Nio, the focus on the weather in the

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The aff treats violence in the most superficial way focusing on natural disasters and flashpoints of suffering. This obscures the ongoing and permanent reality of structural violence, which forms the social background against which particular incidents are compared. Zizek 2008 Slavoj Violence p 1-4
At the forefront of our minds, the obvious signals of violence are acts of crime and terror, civil unrest, international conflict. But we should learn to step back, to disentangle ourselves from the fascinating lure of this directly visible subjective violence , violence performed by a clearly identifiable agent. We need to perceive the contours of the background which generates such outbursts. A step back enables us to identify a violence that sustains our very efforts to fight violence and to promote tolerance . This is the starting point, perhaps even the axiom, of the present book: subjective violence is just the most visible portion of a triumvirate that also includes two objective kinds of violence. First, there is a symbolic violence embodied in language and its forms, what Heidegger would call our house of being. As we shall see later, this violence is not only at work in the obviousand extensively studiedcases of incitement and of the relations of social domination reproduced in our habitual speech forms: there is a more fundamental form of violence still that pertains to language as such, to its imposition of a certain universe of meaning. Second, there is what I call systemic violence, or the often catastrophic consequences of the smooth functioning of our economic and political systems. The catch is that subjective and objective violence cannot be perceived from the same standpoint: subjective violence is experienced as such against the background of a non-violent zero level. It is seen as a perturbation of the normal, peaceful state of things. However, objective violence is precisely the violence inherent to this normal state of things. Objective violence is invisible since it sustains the very zero-level standard against which we perceive something as subjectively violent. Systemic violence is thus something like the notorious dark matter of physics, the counterpart to an all-too- visible subjective violence. It may be invisible, but it has to be taken into account if one is to make sense of what otherwise seem to be irrational explosions of subjective violence . When the media bombard us with those humanitarian crises which
If there is a unifying thesis that runs through the bric-a-brac of reflections on violence that follow, it is that a similar paradox holds true for violence. seem constantly to pop up all over the world, one should always bear in mind that a particular crisis only explodes into media visibility as the result of a complex struggle. Properly humanitarian considerations as a rule play a less important role here than cultural, ideologico-political, and economic considerations. The cover story of Time magazine on 5 June 2006, for example, was The Deadliest War in the World. This offered detailed documentation on how around 4 million people died in the Democratic Republic of Congo as the result of political violence over the last decade. None of the usual humanitarian uproar followed, just a couple of readers lettersas if some kind of filtering mechanism blocked this news from achieving its full impact in our symbolic space. To put it cynically, Time picked the wrong victim in the struggle for hegemony in suffering. It should have stuck to the list of usual suspects: Muslim women and their plight, or the families of 9/11 victims and how they have coped with their losses. The Congo today has effectively re-emerged as a Conradean heart of darkness. No one dares to confront it head on. The death of a West Bank Palestinian child, not to mention an Israeli or an American, is mediatically worth thousands of times more than the death of a nameless Congolese Do we need further proof that

the humanitarian sense of urgency is mediated, indeed overdetermined, by clear political considerations ? And what are these considerations? To answer this, we need to step back and take a look from a different position . When the U.S. media reproached the public in foreign
countries for not displaying enough sympathy for the victims of the 9/11 attacks, one was tempted to answer them in the words Robespierre addressed to those who complained about the innocent victims of revolutionary terror: Stop shaking the tyrants bloody robe in my face, or I will believe that you wish to put Rome in chains.1 Instead of confronting violence directly, the present book casts six sideways glances. There are reasons for looking at the problem of

violence awry. My underlying premise is that there is something inherently mystifying in a direct confrontation with it: the overpowering horror of violent acts and empathy with the victims inexorably function as a lure which prevents us from thinking. A dispassionate conceptual development of the typology of violence must by definition ignore its traumatic impact. Yet there is a sense in which a cold analysis of violence somehow reproduces and participates in its horror. A distinction needs to be made, as well, between (factual) truth and truthfulness: what renders a report of a raped woman (or any other narrative of a trauma) truthful is its very factual unreliability, its confusion, its inconsistency. If the victim were able to report on her painful and humiliating experience in a clear manner, with all the data arranged in a consistent order, this very quality would make us suspicious of its truth. The problem here is part of the solution: the very factual deficiencies of the traumatised subjects report on her experience bear witness to the truthfulness of her report, since they signal that the reported content contaminated the manner of reporting it. The same holds, of course, for the so-called unreliability of the verbal reports of Holocaust survivors: the witness able to offer a clear narrative of his camp experience would disqualify himself by virtue of that clarity.2 The only appropriate approach to my subject thus seems to be one which permits variations on violence kept at a distance out of respect towards its victims

The plan is a superficial, technical fix to a structural problem. Weather disasters make clear the unequal distribution of suffering in the political economy of the status quo. The aff does nothing to change this and pretends instead that a little more technology will protect us all.
Dennis Soron is an Assistant Professor in the Sociology Department at Brock University in St. Catharines, Ontario, Canada, 2007. [Cruel Weather: Natural Disasters and Structural Violence, Transformations Vol. 14] As exceptional as extreme weather events such as Katrina may seem, they clearly gesture towards what Pierre Bourdieu regards as the underlying violence and political fatalism that is a normal, integral part of the ongoing reproduction of capitalist society in the neoliberal era (Acts of Resistance). As Bourdieu argues, the neoliberal project by incrementally eliminating many of the intermediary resources and institutional supports which shield ordinary people from the direct blandishments of the market has altered the pragmatic social context in which people experience their own subordination. To this extent, he implies, the hegemony of neoliberalism has not so much rested on any generalized popular acceptance of free-market ideas or values, as upon the direct experience of precariousness and compulsion engendered by conditions in which the free market reigns supreme, private economic power has been absolved of collective social and environmental constraints, and the responsibility for personal survival has been effectively privatized offloaded from the state and public institutions onto the backs of insecure, isolated individuals. Aside from resorting to the direct application of physical violence where needed to maintain public order in conditions of growing insecurity and inequality, the neoliberal state increasingly sustains and expands the process of capital accumulation through a number of insecurity-inducing strategies. Such strategies, he argues, have coalesced into a new mode of domination based on the creation of a generalized and permanent state of insecurity (Acts of Resistance 85), serving to render individuals and public institutions alike more cautious, fearful, and submissive to the impersonal imperatives of the global capitalist economy . In such conditions, people increasingly experience their own personal struggles not as the consequence of political choices made by identifiable social agents, or of the prevailing distribution of power, resources and life opportunities, but as the byproduct of arbitrary, capricious, unpredictable external

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forces. Disconnected from their social antecedents, Bourdieu argues, the countless seemingly unconnected tragedies of todays world seem to differ little from natural disasters the tornadoes, forest fires, and floods also occupy so much of the news (On Television 7). Challenging this fatalistic worldview, in which disaster has been normalized and accepted as inevitable, is an important step in confronting the structural violence imposed by climate change today. In the first instance, this means challenging the fetishistic character of capitalist economic life , whereby the economy is experienced not as something entwined with our own life-activity, not as a structured social process embodying certain human prerogatives and interests, but as a randomly changing constellation of numbers and things an arbitrary and amorphous external reality which is beyond our power to comprehend or control. The various changes being wrought by global warming expressed through hurricanes, flooding, droughts, air and water borne diseases, soil contamination, and so on can be regarded as a form of fetishism, as described by Marx, at an entirely new level: not only do the byproducts of our own activity turn around and rule over us like an inexorable natural force, they in some ways fuse with, distort and aggravate nature itself, unleashing forms of violence that both aggravate socioeconomic injustice and undermine the whole material foundation of our continued survival. Ultimately, transcending climate fetishism will require us, to borrow Galtungs terms, to disentangle the actual from the unavoidable, and to actively pursue the possibility of a more rational, just, democratic, egalitarian, and sustainable future. Although public awareness of global warming and its effects has been growing in recent years, to date this has taken a largely individualized and pre-political form. As ecologically conscientious as we may be in
our private lives, personal action alone bears little promise. As Bill McKibben has written, the greenhouse effect is the first environmental problem we can't escape by moving to the woods. There are no personal

There is no time to just decide well raise enlightened children and they'll slowly change the world (204). Nor is there time to continue on with the tired strategy of making polite moral appeals to the conscience of our political and economic elite, tugging at their heartstrings and trying to make environmental reform seem palatable and unthreatening to them. Positioned as it is in the social structure, and as imbued as it is with the unquestionable tenets of market ideology, this stratum does not or cannot perceive the climate crisis in its proper light. Indeed, as Naomi Klein has provocatively written, it may even see this crisis in many instances as an economic and political opportunity, spearheading the rise of a predatory form of disaster capitalism that uses the desperation and fear created by catastrophe to engage in radical social and economic engineering (9). The resoluteness with which neoliberal politicians and the corporate establishment have resisted taking effective steps to combat climate change, John Bellamy Foster has argued, reflects more than shortsightedness or personal greed; indeed, it suggests that capitalism is unable to reverse course that is, to move from a structure of industry and accumulation that has proven to be in the long run (and in many respects in the short run as well) environmentally disastrous. When set against the get-rich-quick imperatives of capital accumulation, the biosphere scarcely weighs in the balance. The emphasis on profits to be obtained from fossil fuel consumption and from a form of development geared to the auto-industrial complex largely overrides longerterm issues associated with global warming even if this threatens, within just a few generations, the planet itself. In this sense, responding effectively to the structural violence of climate change will require a correspondingly structural program of social change, oriented not simply towards technological fixes, but towards achieving a greater degree of democratic control over economic life, refitting the scale of production and consumption to respect environmental limits, reweaving our social and ecological safety nets, and creating a culture that simultaneously respects the integrity, value, and complexity of human and nonhuman life.
solutions.

The Affs early warning approach treats the symptom while letting the structural causes of violence to go unchanged. This directly trades off with investigating the institutional and social inequalities that make certain populations expendable.
Nathan, 01 (Laura- CCR director, Executive director, Centre for Conflict Resolution. Served on the Cameron Commission of Inquiry into Arms Trade, established by President Mandela, The Four Horsemen of the
Apocalypse: The structural cause of violence in Africa, August)

It is necessary to focus more on the structural causes of violence than on violence per se. This assertion runs directly counter to the conventional approach to early warning and crisis prevention. In the realm of international politics, early warning is primarily concerned with the initiation and escalation of intraand inter-state hostilities. Former UN Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali (1992, 15-16) declared that the aim of early warning is to assess whether a threat to peace exists and to analyse what action might be taken by the United Nations to alleviate it. According to International Alert (1996), the goal is to predict trends toward an intensification of violence in order to protect vulnerable sectors of society against gross human rights violations, terror and genocide. The early warning/action model proposed by John Davies and Ted Gurr (1998, 4-5) regards the structural causes of violence as background conditions or tensions. These form the basis for long-term risk assessment of a potential crisis and point to opportunities for pre-crisis development aid, peacebuilding or peacemaking initiatives. Dynamic early warning is intended to identify accelerator events that exacerbate the tensions and indicate the possibility that a full-blown crisis or conflagration will occur within the coming months or weeks. Accelerator events can include arms acquisitions, incidents of aggressive posturing or lowintensity violence, a crop failure, a major currency devaluation, and new repressive or discriminatory policies. The early warning models emphasis on large-scale violence reflects a misdiagnosis of the problem. It implies
that the outbreak of hostilities is the worst-case scenario when, as illustrated by the Banyamulenge uprising and many other rebellions against authoritarian rule, resort to violence may be an act of desperation in response to a perceived worst-case scenario. On humanitarian grounds alone, Zaire fell into the category of worst case scenario prior to the 1996 rebellion: state hospitals and health facilities were virtually non-existent; preventable and curable diseases accounted for at least 50% of all deaths; child and maternal mortality rates were among the highest in the world; and inflation reached 24 000% in 1994 (Shearer, 1999). Paradoxically, the international

An emphasis on the proximate causes of violence similarly reflects a misreading of the core problem. Many countries may experience the events described as accelerators but they are not equally susceptible
communitys preoccupation with hostilities and its lesser concern with structural violence might contribute to oppressed communities becoming increasingly militant. to being engulfed by violence as a result. It is scarcely conceivable that, say, Canada, Belgium or New Zealand would be plunged into civil war following a crop failure, a currency devaluation, or even the introduction of

Accelerators lead to hostilities in certain states but not others precisely because they heighten the structural tensions that exist in the former. Whereas accelerator events may or may not provoke violence depending on the circumstances, these structural tensions give rise to a societal propensity to violence. By focusing on the proximate causes of hostilities and relegating structural issues to the status of background conditions, the dynamic early warning model is oriented towards crisis reaction rather than crisis prevention. The more severe the structural problems in a given country, the greater the number of potential accelerators, the greater the risk of violence posed
discriminatory policies.

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by such events, and the more difficult the task of determining which events constitute early warning of an incipient civil war. Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, it could have been said with certainty that Zaire was a country in crisis and that some kind of explosion or implosion would occur in the future. Yet who could have predicted that the process that culminated in the fall of Mobutu would begin in October 1996 and be initiated by the Banyamulenge under the leadership of Laurent

violence does not occur as an independent event. It is an outcome of historically dysfunctional political relationships and structural factors that undermine human security. It cannot be prevented or terminated unless these matters are addressed to the satisfaction of local actors. This cannot be done within a time-frame of weeks or months, as suggested by Davies and Gurr (1998, 4). As argued further below, early warning and action are much too late if they are triggered by the proximate causes of violence. By this stage, the situation may have deteriorated and enmity may have mounted to the point that the momentum towards protracted warfare is irreversible.
Kabila in response to a decision taken by a provincial governor? Mass

Therefore, you should refuse the affirmatives elevation of particular instances of violence (i.e. disasters) and their demand that we act immediately to redress them in favor of a critical perspective on structural violence. Theyll insist that this does nothing to help those at risk of floods, but their outrage is hypocritical. The aff only papers over the social inequalities that make these populations permanently expendable. In the face of such traumatic violence as that described by the 1AC, we need not to act, but to learn what causes it.
Zizek, 2008. Violence, pp. 3-8 Instead of confronting violence directly, the present book casts six sideways glances. There are reasons for looking at the problem of violence awry. My underlying premise is that there is something inherently mystifying in a direct confrontation with it: the overpowering horror of violent acts and empathy with the victims inexorably function as a lure which prevents us from thinking . A dispassionate conceptual development of the typology of violence must by definition ignore its traumatic impact. Yet there is a sense in which a cold analysis of violence somehow reproduces and participates in its horror . A distinction needs to be made, as well, between (factual) truth and truthfulness: what renders a report of a raped woman (or any other narrative of a
trauma) truthful is its very factual unreliability, its confusion, its inconsistency. If the victim were able to report on her painful and humiliating experience in a clear manner, with all the data arranged in a consistent order, this very quality would make us suspicious of its truth. The problem here is part of the solution: the very factual deficiencies of the traumatised subject's report on her experience bear witness to the truthfulness of her report, since they signal that the reported content "contaminated" the manner of reporting it. The same holds, of course, for the so-called unreliability of the verbal reports of Holocaust survivors: the witness able to offer a clear narrative of his camp experience would disqualify himself by virtue of that clarity.2 The only appropriate approach to my subject thus seems to be one which permits variations on violence kept at a distance out of respect towards its victims. Adorno's famous saying, it seems, needs correction: it is not poetry that is impossible after Auschwitz, but rather prose.3 Realistic prose fails, where the poetic evocation of the unbearable atmosphere of a camp suc- ceeds. That is to say, when Adorno declares poetry impossible (or, rather, barbaric) after Auschwitz, this impossibility is an enabling impossibility: poetry is always, by definition, "about" something that cannot be addressed directly, only alluded to. One shouldn't be afraid to take this a step further and refer to the old saying that music comes in when words fail. There may well be some truth in the common wisdom that, in a kind of historical premonition, the music of Schoenberg articulated the anxieties and nightmares of Auschwitz before the event took place. In her memoirs, Anna Akhmatova describes what happened to her when, at the height of the Stalinist purges, she was waiting in the long queue in front of the Leningrad prison to learn about her arrested son Lev: One day somebody in the crowd identified me. Standing behind me was a young woman, with lips blue from the cold, who had of course never heard me called by name before. Now she started out of the torpor common to us all and asked me in a whisper (everyone whispered there), "Can

not a realistic description of the situation, but what Wallace Stevens called "description without place," which is what is proper to art. This is not a description which locates its content in a historical space and time, but a description which creates, as the background of the phenomena it describes, an inexistent (virtual) space of its own, so that what appears in it is not an appearance sustained by the depth of reality behind it, but a decontextualised appearance, an appearance which fully coincides with real being. To quote Stevens again: "What it seems it is and in such seeming all things are." Such an artistic description "is not a sign for something that lies outside its form." 5 Rather, it extracts from the confused reality its own inner form in the same way that Schoenberg "extracted" the inner form of totalitarian terror. He evoked the way this terror affects subjectivity. Does this recourse to artistic description imply that we are in danger of regressing to a contemplative attitude that somehow betrays the urgency to "do something" about the depicted horrors? Let's think about the fake sense of urgency that pervades the left-liberal humanitarian discourse on violence: in it, abstraction and graphic (pseudo)concreteness coexist in the staging of the scene of violence-against women, blacks, the homeless, gays ... "A woman is raped every six seconds in this country" and "In the time it takes you to read this paragraph, ten children will die of hunger" are just two examples. Underlying all this is a hypocritical sentiment of moral outrage. Just this kind of pseudo-urgency was exploited by Starbucks a couple of years ago when, at store entrances, posters greeting customers pointed out that a portion of the chain's profits went into health-care for the children of Guatemala, the source of their coffee , the inference being that with every cup you drink, you save a child's life. There is a fundamental anti-theoretical edge to these urgent injunctions. There is no time to reflect: we have to act now. Through this fake sense of urgency, the post-industrial rich, living in their secluded virtual world, not only do not deny or ignore the harsh reality outside their area-they actively refer to it all the time. As Bill Gates recently put it: "What do computers matter when millions are still unnecessarily dying of dysentery?" Against this fake urgency, we might want to place Marx's wonderful letter to Engels of 1870, when, for a brief moment, it seemed that a European revolution was again at the gates. Marx's letter conveys his sheer panic: can't the revolutionaries wait for a couple of years? He hasn't yet finished his Capital. A critical analysis of the present global constellation-one which offers no clear solution, no "practical" advice on what to do, and provides no light at the end of the tunnel, since one is well aware that this light might belong to a train crashing towards us-usually meets with reproach: "Do you mean we should do nothing? Just sit and wait?" One should gather the courage to answer: "YES, precisely that!" There are situations when the only truly "practical" thing to do is to resist the temptation to engage immediately and to "wait and see" by means of a patient, critical analysis. Engagement seems to exert its pressure on us from all directions. In a well-known passage from his
you describe this?" And I said, "I can." Then something like a smile passed fleetingly over what had once been her face. 4 The key question, of course, is what kind of description is intended here? Surely it is Existentialism and Humanism, Sartre deployed the dilemma of a young man in Prance in 1942, torn between the duty to help his lone, ill mother and the duty to enter the Resistance and fight the Germans; Sartre's point is, of course, that there is no a priori answer to this dilemma. The young man needs to make a decision grounded only in his own abyssal freedom and assume full responsibility for it. 6 An obscene third way out of the dilemma would have been to advise the young man to tell his mother that he will join the Resistance, and to tell his Resistance friends that he will take care of his mother, while, in reality, withdrawing to a secluded place and studying ... There is more than cheap cynicism in this advice. It brings to

Under socialism, Lenin's advice to young people, his answer to what they should do, was "Learn, learn, and learn." This was evoked at all times and displayed on all school walls. The joke goes: Marx, Engels, and Lenin are asked whether they would prefer to have a wife or a mistress. As expected, Marx, rather conservative in private matters,
mind a well-known Soviet joke about Lenin. answers, "A wife!" while Engels, more of a bon vivant, opts for a mistress. To everyone's surprise, Lenin says, 'T d like to have both!" Why? Is there a hidden stripe of decadent jouisseur behind his austere revolutionary image? No-he explains: "So that I can tell my wife that I am going to my mistress, and my mistress that I have to be with my wife .. ." "And then, what do you do?" "I go to a solitary place to learn, learn, and learn!" Is this not exactly what Lenin did after the

And this is what we should do today when we find ourselves bombarded with mediatic images of violence. We need to "learn, learn, and learn" what causes this violence.
catastrophe of 1914? He withdrew to a lonely place in Switzerland, where he "learned, learned, and learned," reading Hegel's logic.

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Socioeconomic oppression is a superstructure that determines in advance the distribution of suffering from any crisis. Farmer, 1996 (Paul, Daedalus, On Suffering and Structural Violence: A View from Below, Winter) no single axis can fully define increased risk for extreme human suffering. Efforts to attribute explanatory efficacy to one variable lead to immodest claims of causality, for wealth and power have
Any distinguishing characteristic, whether social or biological, can serve as pretext for discrimination, and thus as a cause of suffer ing. In discussing each of the above factors, however, it is clear that often protected individual women, gays, and ethnic minorities from the suffering and adverse outcomes associated with assaults on dignity. Similarly, poverty can often efface the "protective" effects of status based on gender,

the socioeconomically oppressed (the poor) do not simply exist alongside other oppressed groups, such as blacks, indigenous peoples, women to take the three major categories in the Third World. No, the "class-oppressed" the socioeconomically poor are the infrastructural expression of the process of oppression. The other groups represent "superstructural" expressions of oppression and because of this are deeply conditioned by the infrastructural. It is one thing to be a black taxi-driver, quite another to be a black
race, or sexual orientation. Leonardo Boff and Clodovis Boff, writing from Bra zil, insist on the primacy of the economic: We have to observe that football idol; it is one thing to be a woman working as a domestic servant, quite another to be the first lady of the land; it is one thing to be an Amerindian thrown off your land, quite another to be an Amerindian owning your

None of this is to deny the ill effects of sexism or racism, even in the wealthy countries of North America and Europe. The point is merely to call for more fine-grained and systemic analyses of power and privilege in discussions of who is likely to suffer and in what ways. The capacity to suffer is, clearly, part of being human. But not all suffering is equal, in spite of pernicious and often self-serving identity politics that suggest otherwise. One of the unfortunate sequelae of identity politics has been the obscuring of structural violence, which metes out injuries of vastly different severity . Careful assessment of
own farm.27 severity is important, at least to physicians, who must practice triage and referral daily. What suffering needs to be taken care of first and with what resources? It is possible to speak of extreme human suffering, and an inordinate share of this sort of pain is currently endured by those living in poverty. Take, for example, illness and premature death, in many places in the world the leading cause of extreme suffering. In a striking depar ture from previous, staid reports, the World Health Organization 280 Paul Farmer now acknowledges that poverty is the world's greatest killer: "Poverty wields its destructive influence at every stage of human life, from the

the world's poor are the chief victims of structural violence - a violence which has thus far defied the analysis of many seeking to understand the nature and distribution of extreme suffering. Why might this be so? One answer is that the poor are not only more likely to suffer, they are also more likely to have their suffering silenced. As Chilean theo logian Pablo Richard, noting the fall of the Berlin Wall, has warned, "We are aware that another gigantic wall is being constructed in the Third World, to hide the reality of the poor majorities . A wall between the rich and poor is being built, so that poverty does not annoy the powerful and the poor are obliged to die in the silence of history. "29 The task at hand, if this silence is to be broken, is to identify the forces conspiring to promote suffering, with the understanding that these will be differentially weighted in different settings. In so doing, we stand a chance to discern the forces motrices of extreme suffering. A sound analytic purchase on the dynamics and distri bution of such affliction is, perhaps, a prerequisite to preventing or, at least, assuaging it. Then, at last, there may be hope of finding a balm in Gilead.30
moment of conception to the grave. It conspires with the most deadly and painful diseases to bring a wretched existence to all those who suffer from it."28 As the twentieth century draws to a close,

Link Objective Description of Suffering

Their objective account of suffering fails to examine its structural causes, exoticizing phenomenal instances of suffering while obfuscating their origin.
Farmer, 1996 (Paul, Daedalus, On Suffering and Structural Violence: A View from Below, Winter) While certain kinds of suffering are readily observable and the subject of countless films, novels, and poems structural violence all too often defeats those who would describe it. There are at least three reasons why this is so. First, there is the "exoticization" of suffering as lurid as that endured by Acephie and Chouchou. The suffering of individuals whose lives and struggles recall our own tends to move us; the suffering of those who are distanced, whether by geography, gender, "race," or culture, is sometimes less affecting. Second, there is the sheer weight of the suffering, which makes it all the more difficult to render: "Knowledge of suffering cannot be conveyed in pure facts and figures, reportings that objectify the suffering of countless persons. The horror of suffering is not only its immensity but the faces of the anonymous victims who have little voice, let alone rights, in history."7 Third, the dynamics and distribution of suffering are still poorly understood. Physicians, when fortunate, can alleviate the suffering of the sick. But explaining its distribution requires more minds, more resources. Case studies of individuals reveal suffering, they tell us what happens to one or many people; but to explain suffering, one must embed individual biography in the larger ma trix of culture, history, and political economy . In short, it is one thing to make sense of extreme suffering a universal activity, surely and quite another to explain it. Life experiences such as those of Ac?phie and Chouchou?who as Haitians living in poverty shared similar social conditions must be embedded in ethnography if their representativeness is to be understood . These local understandings are to be embedded, in turn, in the larger-scale historical system of which the fieldwork site is a part.8 The social and economic forces that dictate life choices in Haiti's Central Plateau affect many millions of individu als, and it is in the context of these global forces that the suffering of individuals receives its appropriate context of interpretation. Similar insights are central to liberation theology, which takes the suffering of the poor as its central problematic. In The Praxis of Suffering, Rebecca Chopp notes that, "In a variety of forms, liberation theology speaks with those who, through their suffering, call into question the meaning and truth of human history."9 Unlike most previous theologies, and unlike much modern phi losophy, liberation theology has attempted to use social analysis to both explain and deplore human suffering. Its key texts bring into relief not merely the suffering of the wretched of the earth, but also the forces that promote that suffering . The theologian Leonardo Boff, in commenting on one of these texts, notes that it "moves immediately to the structural analysis of these forces and de nounces the systems, structures, and mechanisms that 'create a situation where the rich get richer at the expense of the poor, who get even poorer.'"10 In short, few liberation
theologians engage in reflection on suffering without attempting to understand its mechanisms. Theirs is a theology that underlines connections. Robert McAfee Brown has these connections and also the poor in mind when, paraphrasing the Uruguayan Jesuit Juan Luis Segundo, he observes that "the world that is satisfying to us is the same world that is utterly devastating to them.

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Structural Violence Link Disaster Preparedness

The discourse of disaster preparedness ignores that humans exacerbate the potential for disaster in the first place. Freudenburg et. Al. 2008 (William R. Freudenburg University of California, Santa Barbara, Robert Gramling University of Louisiana, Lafayette,
Shirley Laska University of New Orleans, Kai T. Erikson Yale University; Organizing Hazards, Engineering Disasters? Social Forces Volume 87, Number 2, December 2008)
Hewitt (1983), notably, long ago criticized what had come to be "the dominant view" in disaster research, namely that "natural hazards" such as floods and fires only become "disasters" when they happen to strike humans, who tend to be seen as (relatively) innocent victims. As Hewitt noted, however, we have known for centuries that hurricanes lash the U.S. Gulf Coast, for example, while fires and earthquakes are facts of life along the West

what is remarkable is not that nature might suddenly send an unpredictable event to such a hapless location, but that the language of "the dominant view" would reflect such a perspective, even though humans have been building homes in regions where hurricanes, earthquakes, fires or other hazards, are utterly predictable. After examining these linguistic choices, Hewitt concluded that they reflect an uncomfortable, underlying problem. One of the reasons why scientific and technological systems usually enjoy widespread support is that they permit the impression of (human) control, but disasters remind us that our "control" over nature is limited and fallible. Part of the job of so-called "responsible officials" or "disaster managers," from this perspective, may thus be to carry out rituals of reporting that "the disaster has ended" and that conditions are returning to normal, helping recognition of our fallibility to recede into the background noise but also effectively helping us ignore the ongoing potential for disasters.
Coast: "Most natural disasters are characteristic rather than accidental features of the places and societies where they occur." (Hewitt 1983:25) From Hewitt's perspective,

Impact Outweighs

Structral violence outweighs war millions of deaths per year.

Gilman 2000 (Robert, President of Context Institute, Structural Violence, The Foundation of Peace IC #4, http://www.context.org/ICLIB/IC04/Gilman1.htm, 2000, AD: 7-9-9) Hunger and poverty are two prime examples of what is described as "structural violence," that is, physical and psychological harm that results from exploitive and unjust social, political and economic systems. It is something that most of us know is going on, some of us have experienced, but in its starker forms, it is sufficiently distant from most
North American lives that it is often hard to get a good perspective on it. I've come across an approach that seems to help provide that perspective, and I'd like to describe it. How significant is structural violence? How does one measure the impact of injustice? While this may sound like an impossibly difficult question, Gernot Kohler and Norman Alcock (in Journal of Peace Research, 1976, 13, pp. 343-356) have come up with a surprisingly simple method for estimating the grosser forms of structural violence, at least at an international level. The specific question they ask is, how many extra deaths occur each year due to the unequal distribution of wealth between countries? To understand their approach, we will need to plunge into some global statistics. It will help to start with the relationship between Life Expectancy (LE) and Gross National Product Per Person (GNP/p) that is shown in the following figure.
Each dot in this figure stands for one country with its LE and GNP/p for the year 1979. All together, 135 countries are represented (data from Ruth Sivard's World Military and Social Expenditures 1982, World Priorities, Box 1003, Leesburg VA 22075, $4). Kohler and Alcock used a similar figure based on data for 1965, and I'll compare the 1965 data with the 1979 data later in this article. Except for a few oil exporting countries (like Libya) that have unusual combinations of high GNPs and low Life Expectancies, the data follows a consistent pattern shown by the curve. Among the "poor" countries (with GNP/p below about $2400 per person per year), life expectancy is relatively low and increases rapidly with increasing GNP/p. Among the "rich" countries, life expectancy is consistently high and is relatively unaffected by GNP. The dividing line between these two groups turns out to also be the world average GNP per person. The value of the life expectancy curve at that point (for 1979) is 70 years. Thus, other things being equal, if the world's wealth was distributed equally among the nations, every country would have a life expectancy of 70 years. This value is surprisingly close to the average life expectancy for the industrial countries (72 years), and is even not that far below the maximum national life expectancy of 76 years (Iceland, Japan, and Sweden). Kohler and Alcock use this egalitarian model as a standard to compare the actual world situation against. The procedure is as follows. The actual number of deaths in any country can be estimated by dividing the population (P) by the life expectancy (LE). The difference between the actual number of deaths and the number of deaths that would occur under egalitarian conditions is thus P/LE - P/70. For example, in 1979 India had a population of 677 million and a life expectancy of 52 years. Thus India's actual death rate was 13 million while if the life expectancy had been 70, the rate would have been 9.7 million. The difference of 3.3 million thus provides an estimate of the number of extra deaths. Calculating this difference for each country and then adding them up gives the number of extra deaths worldwide due to the unequal distribution of resources. The result for 1965 was 14 million, while for 1979 the number had declined to 11 million. (China, with a quarter of the world's population, is responsible for 3/4 of this drop since it raised

How legitimate is it to ascribe these deaths to the structural violence of human institutions, and not just to the variability of nature? Perhaps the best in-depth study of structural violence comes from the Institute for Food and Development Policy (1885 Mission St, San Francisco, CA 94103). What they find throughout the Third World is that the problems of poverty and hunger often date back hundreds of years to some conquest - by colonial forces or otherwise. The victors became the ruling class and the landholders, pushing the vast majority either on to poor ground or into being landless laborers. Taxes, rentals, and the legal system were all structured to make sure that the poor stayed poor. The same patterns continue today. Additional support is provided by the evidence in the above figure, which speaks for itself. Also, according to Sivard, 97% of the people in the Third World live under repressive governments , with almost half of all Third World countries run by military dominated governments. Finally, as a point of comparison, Ehrlich and Ehrlich (Population, Environment, and Resources, 1972, p72) estimate between 10 and 20 million deaths per year due to starvation and malnutrition. If their estimates are correct, our estimates may even be too low. Some comparisons will help to put these figures in perspective. The total number of deaths from all causes in 1965 was 62 million, so these estimates indicate that 23% of all deaths were due to structural violence . By 1979 the fraction had dropped to 15%. While it is heartening to see this improvement, the number of deaths is staggeringly large, dwarfing any other form of violence other than nuclear war. For example, the level of structural violence is 60 times greater than the average number of battle related deaths per year since 1965 (Sivard 1982). It is 1.5 times as great as the yearly average number of civilian and battle field deaths during the 6 years of World War II. Every 4 days, it is the equivalent of another Hiroshima. Perhaps the most hopeful aspect of this whole tragic situation is that essentially everyone in the present system has become a loser . The plight of the starving is
its life expectancy from 50 in 1965 to 64 in 1979.)

obvious, but the exploiters don't have much to show for their efforts either - not compared to the quality of life they could have in a society without the tensions generated by this exploitation. Especially at a national level,

The rich and the poor, with the help of modern technology and weaponry, have become each others' prisoners. Today's industrialized societies did not invent this structural violence, but it could not continue without our permission. This suggests that to the list of human tendencies that are obstacles to peace we need to add the ease with which we acquiesce in injustice - the way we all too easily look
what the rich countries need now is not so much more material wealth, but the opportunity to live in a world at peace. in the other direction and disclaim "response ability." In terms of the suffering it supports, it is by far our most serious flaw.

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Reject the permutation their insistence on acting before we have a clear understanding of the problem guarantees that our politics will only be coopted to strengthen the superstructure of oppression.
Johnston 4, interdisciplinary research fellow in psychoanalysis at Emory University (Adrian, Psychoanalysis, Culture & Society, December 9.3, p. 259, 2004)
The height of Zizek's philosophical traditionalism, his fidelity to certain lasting truths too precious to cast away in a postmodern frenzy, is his conviction that no worthwhile praxis can emerge prior to the careful and deliberate formulation of a correct conceptual framework. His references to the Lacanian notion of the Act (qua agent-less occurrence not brought about by a subject) are especially strange in light of the fact that he seemingly endorses the view that theory must precede practice, namely, that deliberative reflection is, in a way, primary. For Zizek, the

foremost "practical" task to be accomplished today isn't some kind of rebellious acting out, which would, in the end, amount to nothing more than a series of impotent, incoherent outbursts. Instead, given the contemporary exhaustion of the socio-political imagination under the hegemony of liberal-democratic capitalism, he sees the liberation of thinking itself from its present constraints as the first crucial step that must be taken if anything is to be changed for the better. In a lecture given in Vienna in 2001, Zizek suggests that Marx's call to break out of the sterile closure of abstract intellectual ruminations through direct, concrete action (thesis eleven on Feuerbach--"The philosophers have only interpreted the world in various ways; the point is to change it") must be inverted given the new prevailing conditions of late-capitalism. Nowadays, one must resist succumbing to the temptation to short-circuit thinking in favor of acting, since all such rushes to action are doomed; they either fail to disrupt capitalism or are ideologically co-opted by it.

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Disasters Advantage CP 1NC

CP Text: The United States Federal Government should provide all necessary resources to developing an early warning system that models the Sensor and Computing Infrastructure for Environmental Risks. The United States federal government should increase public civic education as per the recommendations of Cynthia Gibson. Solvency: CP solves because SCIER is Europes state of the art early warning system that is proven to work Science Daily 2008 [Science Daily, Automated System Provides Early Warning Of Natural Disasters, 9/16/08, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/09/080915083725.htm] ScienceDaily (Sep. 16, 2008) When disaster threatens, the first hours are crucial. European researchers have developed an automated system to provide early detection, forecasting, and warning of natural disasters such as floods and wildfires. Floods, forest fires, and other natural disasters take lives, harm the environment, and cause billions of euros of damage every year 50 billion worldwide in 2007 alone. The EU-funded programme SCIER (Sensor and Computing Infrastructure for Environmental Risks) took on the challenge of developing a state-of-the-art automated system to detect disasters in the making, forecast how an emergency is likely to unfold, alert authorities, and get them the information they need to respond effectively. We can provide public authorities with real data and predictions in real time, says Sotiris Kanellopoulos, the projects technical coordinator. So the public services can coordinate their forces and manage the emergency in an efficient way, and people who live close to forests or rivers can protect themselves . The first level of the groups solution is to deploy networks of ground-based sensors such as video cameras, meteorological instruments, and river-level gauges in high-risk areas, especially the urban-rural interface, where homes and businesses lie close to undeveloped terrain. From raw data to realistic forecasts The ground-based sensors are linked wirelessly into what the researchers call a local area control unit. This level of the system structures and compares the raw data, for example checking to see if a temperature spike at one sensor is matched by similar changes at nearby sensors. The system should be able to understand when there is a false measurement, says Kanellopoulos, so it can filter out what is unrealistic and not trigger a false alarm. When the local area control unit decides a threat is real, it activates the next level of SCIERs computational armamentarium to forecast how the emergency is likely to develop during the crucial first hours . We dont claim that we can simulate a fire disaster for days, says Kanellopoulos. But we can simulate it for the next few hours. The researchers have implemented sophisticated mathematical models of how natural disasters unfold. Those models include detailed information about the local geography, plus real-time sensor data concerning wind, rainfall, temperature, and other variables. They found that, in order to produce meaningful forecasts, they need to generate multiple simulations of a disaster . Only then can their models provide
authorities with accurate and useful information, such as where a wildfire is most likely to threaten homes. We generate different scenarios using different wind speeds, directions, and other relevant parameters, says

The system uses the most likely simulations to generate detailed maps that authorities can use to manage the emergency. The simulations are visualised on a reference map, so the public authorities can see in a very direct way what is
Kanellopoulos. Then we score each scenario and try to filter out scenarios that are unrealistic. going to happen in the area for the next two or three hours, says Kanellopoulos. Generating these complex simulations in real time demands enormous amounts of computing power. SCIER relies on the GRID to provide that

The GRID, sometimes known as the next-generation internet, is a dedicated network that links thousands of computers via a fibreoptic network that is up to 10,000 times faster than the internet. It allows researchers to perform calculations that could not be done otherwise. Because we need to run a vast amount of calculations in real time, I dont believe that a single core computer could compete with the GRID, says Kanellopoulos. First field trials SCIER, funded by the EUs Sixth Framework Programme for research, already has a functioning trial network in the Czech Republic, aimed at managing floods. The next trial is taking place this
computational clout. summer near Athens, Greece. It will test a sensor network, local area control unit, and higher-level computational resources for detecting and controlling forest fires. A third trial is scheduled to take place in France. Kanellopoulos says that the groups greatest technical challenge was in combining research and technological capabilities from different areas, for example ways of generating and presenting geographic information using the

SCIERs greatest achievement will be seeing the system applied on the ground to help authorities protect lives and property from natural disasters. Its the result that is important an overview of the event so public services can coordinate their forces and manage an
GRID. However, he adds, emergency in a more efficient way.

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And Strengthening civic education will solve for the needs for citizen engagement. Gibson 2004 [Cynthia M. , Cynthia M. Gibson is a program officer for Carnegie Corporation of New Yorks Strengthening U.S. Democracy program and a doctoral candidate at Rutgers University; previously, Thinking outside the Ballot Box: A Broader Political Engagement strategy for Americas civic organizations, National Civic Review,http://www.ncl.org/publications/ncr/93-2/03_NCR93_2Gibson.pdf]
a political reform agendawith the goal of encouraging civic engagementlook like? Here are some Advocating for Campaign Finance Reform Civic organizations should be speaking out about the need for campaign finance reform and encouraging their members to do likewise by supporting publicly funded elections in their states and communities. Already, there are promising examples of how such races work in Arizona and Maine, which increased the voter turnout rate with this type of financing system, derived largely from funds raised through individuals contributions through the checkoff box on their tax return. Civic organizations could remind their members to
A New Agenda to Encourage Political Involvement What would of the most important components of this agenda. use this option to support publicly funded elections, which would also help to level the playing field so that more people interested in running could do soand in turn give Americans more and better choices in elections.

Educating Americans About What Government Does Do Many Americans, especially young people, have little idea of the role government plays in their day-to-day lives, and what they do hear, for the most part, is negative. Public education campaigns and other efforts need to be undertaken to educate Americans about the beneficial contributions that local, state, and federal government make to families and communities: providing health and social services, overseeing public schools, building roads and highways, and so on. The subtext of these efforts is that public need not be synonymous with mediocre, and that privatization is not the answer to every problem. Indeed, the public sector,

along with the private and nonprofit sectors, is an integral part of what some have referred to as the three-legged stool of democracy. Civic organizations should continue to try to seek new ways to collaborate with the other two sectors and
promote this message of interdependence. Exploring and Educating Americans About New Electoral Processes
There are new forms of electoral process, such as instant runoff voting, whereby people vote for their favorite candidate but also can indicate subsequent choices by ranking their preferences as 1, 2, or 3. With this process, a true majority winner is established and eliminates the spoiler concept. Voters can also, as John Anderson writes, vote their hopes, not their fears, unlike our current winner-take-all system that led to the Bush-Gore debacle in 2000. 31 Another process that can be advocated is proportional or full representation, in which like-minded groups of voters win legislative seats in better proportion to their share of the popular vote than in a winner-take-all election. Whereas the winnertake-all principle awards 100 percent of the representation to a 50.1 percent majority, full representation allows voters in a minority to win their fair share of representation alongside voters in the majority.

Sponsoring

More Engaging and Lively Debates

Civic organizations can sponsor debates among the candidatesincluding third-party candidatesthat involve as questioners people who are allowed to ask hard-

A variety of media venues need to be involved in this processbeyond the national networks, and different approaches should be used to attract a broader audience, particularly young people and those turned off by what now passes for political debate. Encouraging People to Run for Office Civic organizations should encourage their membersand their members membersto run for political office at the local, state, or national level and provide venues for candidates from all parties to get their message out to the membership . Advocating for Changes to Redistricting Procedures Civic organizations can encourage members to become more educated about redistricting practices in their states and districts practices that may be prohibiting more participation by keeping potential candidates from running for public office . Organizations need to speak out for reform in this area, specifically by calling for districts to be drawn apolitically, perhaps using computer programs or nonpartisan commissions. Speaking Out About the Lack of Substance in Media Coverage of Issues and Candidacies Around the country, there are now numerous communities organizing to demand more choice in programming and in encouraging local networks to offer free airtime for candidate and issue coverage during an election period. Civic organizations could support this work by furnishing information to their members about these efforts and providing venues for connecting them. Encouraging and Promoting Community Organizing Around Local Issues Political engagement is not just about voting in a national election, or even a local election. It is also about communities coming together to advocate for things they care about and working to improve or change them. In many cases, such organizing leads to more political involvement. A group of
hitting questions, and if candidates are evasive or respond with sound bites the questioners can be encouraged to follow up and demand more clarity and specificity. neighbors cleaning up their park, for example, may be inspired to contact local elected officials to make sure the park stays clean, testify before the city council about the state of parks in their neighborhood, and pursue

connection between electoral politics and community activism and why and how both forms of engagement are important and the functions they serve. Young people particularly are heavily engaged in community service, which can be used as a springboard for deeper civic involvement, including activities that are more political in natureamong them, organizing around issues they care about. Young people may not care about politics, says Jon Zaff, director of 18-to-35,
longer-term efforts to ensure the viability and quality of life in their community. Civic organizations, especially national groups, need to help nonprofits and other organizations understand the but they do care passionately about issues (personal communication, May 11, 2004). This energy needs to be directed and cultivated through programs and projects that allow young people to move from service to civics

Encouraging and Promoting Better School-Based Civic Education Given that schools have access to our next generation of citizens, they need to be viewed and brought in as
important partners in any larger civic engagement effort. Although school-based civic education has declined significantly during the past thirty years (a decline that some correlate with the decrease in young peoples interest in voting and politics), it is recently reemerging as an important issue and one that several organizations are tackling at the district, state, and national levels. Unlike the traditional, dry, rote civics classes of yesterday,

are linking classroom-based instruction in the fundamentals of democracy with experiential learning opportunities, encouraged to discuss policy issues in the classroom and are given time for reflection and analysispractices that the data show help cultivate civic and political behavior, attitudes, and skills among young people. 32 Civic organizations consequently have an
however, these new programs many with local or state nonprofit organizations. Students are also opportunity to join ranks with these efforts; link nonprofits with schools; and help advocate for better and more comprehensive approaches to civic education in standards, testing, and curricula. Sponsoring Public Discussions About the Kinds of Systems We Do Want and That We Think Could Be More Effective Although many public discussions center on civic engagement, few of them attempt to look at a broader reform agendaor at least tie the pieces together into a whole. Civic organizations can sponsor public dialogues asking important questions: Which kinds of political system would make participation worthwhile? Which kinds of redistricting system do we want? What values would they reflect (for example, competitiveness, racial equality, and so on)? What are the pros and cons of instant runoff voting? What kind of local organizing needs to be developed to lead to macro-level political reform? These discussions must involve people representing all points of the political spectrum and promote more local experimentation, which civic organizations can showcase and support.

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Disasters Advantage CP: SCIER Solvency

Counterplan solves the add-ons. New York Times 2009 (Bringing Efficiency to the Infrastructure (New York Times) April 30, 2009 Bringing Efficiency to the Infrastructure By Steve Lohr)
IN the mid-1990s, the Internet took off because its technological time had come . Years of steady progress in developing more powerful and less expensive computers, Web software and faster communications links finally came together. A similar pattern is emerging today, experts say, for what is being called smart infrastructure more efficient and environmentally friendlier systems for managing, among other things, commuter traffic, food distribution, electric grids and waterways. This time, the crucial technological ingredients include low-cost sensors and clever software for analytics and visualization, as well as computing firepower. Wireless sensors can now collect and transmit
information from almost any object for instance, roads, food crates, utility lines and water pipes. And the improved software helps interpret the huge flow of information, so raw data becomes useful knowledge to monitor

The efficiency payoff, experts say, should translate into big reductions in energy used, greenhouse gases emitted and natural resources consumed.
and optimize transport and other complex systems.

Solves the economy: Spin-off technology New York Times 2009 (Bringing Efficiency to the Infrastructure (New York Times) April 30, 2009 Bringing Efficiency to the Infrastructure By Steve Lohr)
The next step, experts say, is for computers to become intelligent instruments of control, linking them to data-generating sensors throughout the planets infrastructure. We are entering a new phase of computing, in which computers will be interacting with the physical world as never before, said Edward Lazowska, a professor of computer science at the University of Washington. Computer-enhanced infrastructure promises to be a lucrative market. And the outlook has seemingly improved in the economic downturn, as governments around the world embrace stimulus spending that relies heavily on public works projects, both high-tech and low. A handful of big technology corporations, including I.B.M., Cisco and General Electric, have major
Smart infrastructure is a new horizon for computer technology. Computers have proven themselves powerful tools for calculation and communication. initiatives under way I.B.M. has even branded its campaign, Smarter Planet. Yet many other companies, both large and small, are also pursuing opportunities. Just how large the market will be and how quickly it will develop remain uncertain. The early smart-infrastructure ventures often seem like applied science projects, encouraging but small scale. It is not clear whether they will work outside the laboratory, where they must turn a profit or justify higher taxes or user fees. Much of the early Internet investment, after all, came to grief. The smart infrastructure wave, analysts warn, could bring a similar cycle of enthusiasm and disappointment. Yet, like the Internet, they say, the technology will prevail in the long run. There will be a lot of hype and a lot of things that dont pan out, said Rosabeth Moss Kanter, a professor of business administration at the Harvard Business School. But the direction is absolutely right. Weve barely scratched the surface of how information technology can help control and conserve energy use. I.B.M., with its large research labs and technology services

Many of its most advanced projects are in Europe, where energy costs are higher than in the United States. But while Europe remains a few years ahead, there is growing interest and investment in America, said Sharon Nunes, a scientist who heads I.B.M.s environmental innovations group. In the utility
business, has the most experience in the widest range of digital infrastructure projects. sector, I.B.M. has smart grid programs under way with several governments and companies, using sensors, software and computerized household meters to maintain power lines and reduce energy consumption. A Department of Energy demonstration project in Washington State, using I.B.M. technology, concluded that peak loads on utility grids could be trimmed by 15 percent. Nationally, such a reduction over a 20-year period would eliminate the need for the equivalent of 30 large coal-fired plants.

Wireless ground sensors can provide necessary information for disaster early warning. Ramesh 2009 (Dr. Maneesha Vinodini Ramesh, Amrita Center for Wireless Networks and Applications, (Amrita University) India Wireless Sensor Network for Disaster Monitoring www.intechopen.com/download/pdf/pdfs_id/12467 wsn = wireless sensor network)
In this chapter the application for WSN most focused on is for purpose of detecting natural disasters. WSN can be useful to disaster management in two ways. Firstly, WSN has enabled a more convenient early warning system and secondly, WSN

provides a system able to learn about the phenomena of natural disasters. Natural disasters are increasing world wide due to the global warming and climate change. The losses due to these disasters are increasing in an alarming rate. Hence, it is would be beneficial to detect the pre-cursors of these disasters,
early warn the population, evacuate them, and save their life. However, these disasters are largely unpredictable and occur within very short spans of time.

Therefore technology has to be developed to capture relevant signals with minimum monitoring delay. Wireless Sensors are one of the cutting edge technologies that can quickly respond to rapid changes of data and send the sensed data to a data analysis center in areas where cabling is inappropriate. WSN technology has the capability of quick capturing, processing, and transmission of critical data in real-time with high resolution. However, it has its own limitations such as relatively low amounts of battery power and low memory availability compared to many existing tech- nologies. It does, though, have the advantage of deploying sensors in hostile environments with a bare minimum of maintenance. This fulfills a very important need for any real time monitoring, especially in hazardous or remote scenarios.

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Disasters Advantage CP: Civic Engagement Solvency

Establishing civic indicators key to civic health which is key to increased civic engagement. Bridgeland 2004 [John M. John graduated with honors in government from Harvard University, studied at the College of Europe and the Universite Libre de
Bruxelles in Belgium as a Rotary International Fellow, and received his J.D. at the University of Virginia School of Law. He currently serves on advisory boards for the American Presidents Foundation (Chairman); Center for National Policy; Fostering a More Engaged Citizenry Philanthropys role in a civic Reawakening, Philanthropy for Active Civic Engagement, http://www.civicengagement.org/agingsociety/links/fathering.pdf]

1. Support the Establishment of Civic Indicators. A renewed effort to strengthen civic engagement and participatory democracy must have a clear sense of what it is trying to achieve . A civic indicators working group should be established to develop leading indicators of our Nations civic health, so there are benchmarks for measuring progress over time. One example of a
successful and utilized indicator is the Volunteer Service Index that the USA Freedom Corps developed with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau. This index annually measures the number of Americans who regularly volunteer, where they volunteer, and the principal barriers for those who do not volunteer. Another example is the Index of National Civic Health developed by the Nunn-Bennett Commission on Civic Renewal that includes a variety of specific indices that measure our civic strength, ranging from political participation and trust in government to safety in communities and the strength of the family. While not perfect,

can see how their specific efforts relate to other efforts to improve civic health; 2) gaps can be identified and filled with renewed and focused initiatives; 3) grantmakers will have another set of benchmarks against which to judge the promise of proposals; 4) the media will cover the release of data relating to the civic indicators, giving the field another public platform to engage more Americans and institutions in these efforts; and 5) Americans will know how we are doing as a country to strengthen our civic life . The group could be comprised of academics, leaders of non-profit organizations, foundation leaders, student
having leading indicators for our civic health will have many benefits: 1) individual organizations
leaders, and government officials, such as: Robert Putnam, Harvard Professor and author of Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community; William Galston, former Deputy Assistant to President Clinton for Domestic Policy and Director of the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) at the University of Maryland; Stephen Goldsmith, former Mayor of Indianapolis and current Chairman of the Corporation for National and Community Service and Harvard Professor of the Ash Institute on Democratic Governance and Innovation; and officials from the General Accounting Office, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau. The group should solicit public input.

Need to create a permanent fund to support innovative and results-oriented initiatives. This is key to ensuring sustained efforts for participatory democracy. Bridgeland 2004 [John M. John graduated with honors in government from Harvard University, studied at the College of Europe and the Universite Libre de
Bruxelles in Belgium as a Rotary International Fellow, and received his J.D. at the University of Virginia School of Law. He currently serves on advisory boards for the American Presidents Foundation (Chairman); Center for National Policy; Fostering a More Engaged Citizenry Philanthropys role in a civic Reawakening, Philanthropy for Active Civic Engagement, http://www.civicengagement.org/agingsociety/links/fathering.pdf]

Create a Permanent Fund to Support Innovative and Results-Oriented Initiatives To ensure this effort is reliable and permanent, PACE should work with its alliance of foundations to establish a fund for civic engagement. This permanent fund will send a strong signal to the field that these efforts will be ongoing and sustained for decades to come. The fund could work closely with the Civic Indicators Working Group to ensure initiatives eligible for funding have clear and measurable outcomes that relate to improving the countrys civic health.

Some silver bullets might be identified over time, as ideas and initiatives are tested. The fund might focus initially on three areas and work to foster institutional changes strengthening the teaching of American history and civic education, fostering community and national service, and enhancing political and civic participation. Examples of some efforts that might merit closer examination and possible funding and support include:

Need to support dialogues on how to strengthen civic philanthropy. This is key to sustaining more discurse and allowing for more responsible philanthropy. Bridgeland 2004 [John M. John graduated with honors in government from Harvard University, studied at the College of Europe and the Universite Libre de
Bruxelles in Belgium as a Rotary International Fellow, and received his J.D. at the University of Virginia School of Law. He currently serves on advisory boards for the American Presidents Foundation (Chairman); Center for National Policy; Fostering a More Engaged Citizenry Philanthropys role in a civic Reawakening, Philanthropy for Active Civic Engagement, http://www.civicengagement.org/agingsociety/links/fathering.pdf]

3. Support Dialogues on How to Strengthen Civic Philanthropy. Amy Kass from the University of Chicago and the Hudson Institute is just starting to lead an effort called Toward a More Civic Philanthropy: Perfecting our Grants. With important support already in place from the Council on Foundations, the Association of Small Foundations, and the Bradley Center on Philanthropy and Civic Renewal, this effort will hold dialogues with
prominent philanthropic leaders throughout the country that aim to: 1) promote and sustain more civil and thoughtful discourse about fundamental issues facing the philanthropic sector today; and 2) point a way toward a more responsible, responsive, and civic-spirited philanthropy.

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1NC Bicarbonate Warming CP

TEXT: The United States federal government should provide financial incentives and subsidies to all fossil fuel plants in the United States to use Skyonic Skymine carbon captures technology to convert carbon dioxide emissions into sodium bicarbonate for commercial sale. The federal government should make this eligible for all emission reduction and carbon tax policies.

That solves 90% of warming emissions

Kanellos 11/27/07 [Michael, CNET News Staff Writer, Can baking soda curb global warming? http://news.cnet.com/Can-baking-soda-curb-global-warming/2100-13838_3-6220127.html] scientists have proposed compressing carbon dioxide and sticking it in underground caves as a way to cut down on greenhouse gases. Joe David Jones come up with an industrial process called SkyMine that captures 90 percent of the carbon dioxide coming out of smoke stacks and mixes it with sodium hydroxide to make sodium bicarbonate, or baking soda. The energy required for the reaction to turn the chemicals into baking soda comes from the waste heat from the factory. "It is cleaner than food-grade (baking soda)," he said. The system also removes 97 percent of the heavy metals, as well as most of the sulfur and nitrogen compounds, Jones said. Luminant, a utility formerly known as TXU, installed a pilot version of the system at its Big Brown Steam Electric Station in Fairfield, Texas, last year. Skyonic, meanwhile, hopes to install a system that will consume the greenhouse gas output of a large--500 megawatts or so--power plant around 2009. Skyonic is currently designing one of these large systems. "It has been working pretty well. It does present a potential solution to emissions," said a representative for Luminant. "But right now there is still a lot of work to be done." If the concept works on a grand scale, it could help change some of the pernicious economics and daunting engineering challenges surrounding carbon capture and sequestration. Carbon capture likely will be required to curb global warming, according to many scientists and companies that are currently experimenting with ways to effectively bury
Some wants to make baking soda out of it. Jones, the founder and CEO of Skyonic, has
or fix greenhouse gases as they come out of smokestacks. Coal accounted for 26 percent of energy consumed in 2004 worldwide, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, and will grow to 28 percent by 2030. Coal also accounted for 39 percent of carbon dioxide in 2004 (behind oil) but is expected to pass oil for the No. 1 spot in 2010. What about replacing every incandescent bulb in America with compact fluorescents? The benefits are eradicated by the carbon dioxide emitted by two coal-fired plants over a year, according to Ed Mazria, founder of Architecture 2030, a nonprofit that encourages builders, suppliers, and architects to move toward making

a lot of the proposed solutions for sequestration involve large amounts of capital and risk. If you bury carbon dioxide underground, it could always leak out. Other ideas include pumping it into underground saline aquifers or porous rock formations. Because it's a solid, storing baking soda is simply easier, and it allows greenhouse gas emitters to store a lot of carbon in one place. The stuff piles
carbon-neutral buildings by 2030. Unfortunately, up: A 500-megawatt power plant will produce approximately 338,000 tons of carbon dioxide a year. Multiply that weight by 1.9 and you get the number of tons of baking soda that the plant will produce. Still, it can be sold, stored in containers, used for landfill or buried in abandoned mines. "If you can use the waste heat, it strikes me as a potentially feasible approach," said Alex Farrell, an assistant professor in the energy and resources group at

On top of that, the byproducts of the different reactions--chlorine, baking soda, hydrogen (a byproduct from making the sodium hydroxide that gets mixed with the carbon dioxide), and chlorine--can be sold to industrial users. In all likelihood, the chlorine and hydrogen will have a higher market value than the baking soda, but baking soda does have its buyers. It is often used as an industrial abrasive. Besides, baking soda today gets mined--an expensive process. Skyonic's byproduct would obviate the need to dig holes in the ground. Other start-ups are trying to develop salable
the University of California at Berkeley. "I'm not willing to throw any of the ideas out yet." products out of carbon dioxide. Greenfuel Technologies wants to capture carbon dioxide and feed it to algae farms. Greenfuel then sells the algae to biodiesel manufacturers. Making biodiesel from algae, though, remains in the experimental stage. Similarly, Novomer wants to turn carbon dioxide into plastics, while a few other start-ups are coming up with liquid fuels derived from the gas. These approaches, however, result in byproducts that are

. Because the system captures metals and acid gases, it can replace the $400 million scrubbers that power plants currently have to install. Skyonic's system will probably cost about the same amount as a scrubber. Although the capital budget will be equal, power plant owners will get a salable byproduct and avoid carbon taxes, which may be imposed in the future. Jones, a chemical engineer, came up with the idea for the company while watching TV with his sons. The Discovery Channel had a show about traveling to Mars, and experts offered up their ideas for getting rid of carbon dioxide. Jones told his sons that the experts had it wrong. Creating sodium bicarbonate would probably be the best solution.
more experimental than cranking out baking soda. Greenfuel, for instance, has been forced to delay a prototype in Arizona. There's another benefit to Skyonic's system, Jones said

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2NC Bicarbonate Warming CPFeasible/Cost Efficient

Bicarbonate Skymines are cost-effective and highly feasible
ACC 7 [American Coal Council, Using baking soda to stop global warming, 12/11/07, process_co2_into_baking_soda] their process was created to help reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuel plants and therefore could help to address the challenges associated with global climate change and impending carbon reduction legislation. According to the site, the process uses waste heat and onsite production of sodium hydroxide to profitably remove CO2, acid gases, and heavy metals from flue gases. The carbon dioxide is stored in a stable form as sodium bicarbonate "(better-than-foodgrade baking soda)," which can then be used in industrial processes, or landfilled. The process also "produces clean (non-methane-based) hydrogen and low-energy
The Skyonic website notes that chlorine." A recent CNet/News.com article on the process described more of the process and the pilot program that Skyonics is conducting with ACC member company Luminant Energy to help bring this technology to the

SkyMine that captures 90 percent of the carbon dioxide coming out of smoke stacks and mixes it with sodium hydroxide to make sodium bicarbonate, or baking soda. The energy required for the reaction to turn the chemicals into baking soda comes from the waste heat from the factory. "It is cleaner than food-grade (baking soda)," he said. The system also removes 97 percent of the heavy metals, as well as most of the sulfur and nitrogen compounds, Jones said. Luminant, a utility formerly known as TXU, installed a pilot version of the system at its Big Brown Steam Electric Station in Fairfield, Texas, last year. Skyonic, meanwhile, hopes to install a system that will consume the greenhouse gas output of a large--500 megawatts or so--power plant around 2009. Skyonic is currently designing one of these large systems. The article also noted that, if successful, the process could help reduce the need for mining sodium hydroxide and replace the need for installing scrubbers. If tests prove successful and the product can be brought to market, it could be a boon for the industry, regulators, the environment, and electricity users (read: pretty
market. (Joe David) Jones, the founder and CEO of Skyonic, has come up with an industrial process called much everyone.)

It solves emissions
GreenDaily 12/19/07 [Baking soda slow down to global warming, http://www.greendaily.com/2007/12/29/baking-soda-slow-down-to-global-warming/] Green living is one way to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Scrubbing carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and capture and bury methods are other ways being researched by innovative engineers as potential means to reducing greenhouse gases. Skyonic CEO Joe David Jones goes one step further. Jones has devised a way to make baking soda out of carbon dioxide emissions with SkyMine, a process that converts 90 percent of carbon dioxide from smoke stacks into baking soda. The energy to make this conversion uses waste heat, making it an interesting green operation. In addition, SkyMine removes 97 percent of heavy metals, sulfur and nitrogen compounds, making the baking soda cleaner than food grade baking soda. In 2004, coal accounted for 39 percent of carbon dioxide and is expected to pass oil by 2010, according to the US Energy
Information Agency. To learn more about a chemical engineer and an idea inspired by a Discovery Channel television show, read Can baking soda curb global warming.

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Privatization CP Solvency
Privatization solves environment. Allows for lower barriers to transfer environmental technologies and management systems from developed countries to less developed ones. Christmann and Taylor 01 American businessman and the head of a privately held multinational company, Professor Christmann specializes in research of the global
economy (Petra and Glen, Globalization and the environment: Determinants of firm self-regulation in China. Journal of International business studies, 32(3), 439-458, ABI/INFORM) http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=277452]

In contrast, globalization

proponents contend that lower barriers to trade and foreign investment encourage firms to transfer environmental technologies and managemement systems from countries with stricter environmental standards to developing countries, which lack access to environmental technologies and capabilities (Drezner, 2000). Governmental failure to protect the environment, it is suggested in this line of argument, might also be ameliorated through self-regulation of environmental performance by firms in developing countries. Self-regulation refers to a firms adoption of environmental performance standards or environmental management systems (EMS) beyond the requirements of governmental regulations. Globalization can increase self-regulation pressures in several ways. First, globalization increases MNEs investment in developing countries where their subsidiaries can be expected to self-regulate their environmental performance more than domestic firms do. MNEs can transfer the more advanced environmental technologies and management systems developed in response to more stringent regulations in developed countries to their subsidiaries. MNEs also face pressures from interest groups to improve their worldwide environmental performance. Second, globalization might contribute to environmental performance as a supplier-selection criterion, which also pressures domestic firms in developing countries to self-regulate environmental performanceGlobalization does not necessarily have negative effects on the environment in developing countries to the extend suggested by the pollution-haven and industrial-flight hypotheses. Our study suggests that globalization increases institutional and consumer pressures on firms to surpass local requirements, even when they may be tempted by lax regulations and enforcement in countries offering themselves as pollution havens (Hoffman, 1999; Rugman and Verbeke, 1998). Privatization solves environment. Allows for lower barriers to transfer environmental technologies and management systems from developed countries to less developed ones. Christmann and Taylor 01 American businessman and the head of a privately held multinational company, Professor Christmann specializes in research of the global
economy (Petra and Glen, Globalization and the environment: Determinants of firm self-regulation in China. Journal of International business studies, 32(3), 439-458, ABI/INFORM) http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=277452]

In contrast, globalization

proponents contend that lower barriers to trade and foreign investment encourage firms to transfer environmental technologies and managemement systems from countries with stricter environmental standards to developing countries, which lack access to environmental technologies and capabilities (Drezner, 2000). Governmental failure to protect the environment, it is suggested in this line of argument, might also be ameliorated through self-regulation of environmental performance by firms in developing countries. Self-regulation refers to a firms adoption of environmental performance standards or environmental management systems (EMS ) beyond the requirements of governmental regulations. Globalization can increase self-regulation pressures in several ways. First, globalization increases MNEs investment in developing countries where their subsidiaries can be expected to self-regulate their environmental performance more than domestic firms do. MNEs can transfer the more advanced environmental technologies and management systems developed in response to more stringent regulations in developed countries to their subsidiaries. MNEs also face pressures from interest groups to improve their worldwide environmental performance. Second, globalization might contribute to environmental performance as a supplier-selection criterion, which also pressures domestic firms in developing countries to self-regulate environmental performanceGlobalization does not necessarily have negative effects on the environment in developing countries to the extend suggested by the pollution-haven and industrial-flight hypotheses. Our study suggests that globalization increases institutional and consumer pressures on firms to surpass local requirements, even when they may be tempted by lax regulations and enforcement in countries offering themselves as pollution havens (Hoffman, 1999; Rugman and Verbeke, 1998).

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Privatization CP Solvency
Private control allows for environmental protection. Businesses want to preserve the environment for long-term profit
Wollstein 1993 (Director of the International Society for Individual Liberty, 1993 (Jarret, Liberty and the Environment: Freedom Protects, Government Destroys http://www.fff.org/freedom/0593c.asp) In the Soviet Union, before the collapse of communism, only 7% of the farms were private. Yet, they grew nearly half of all the food produced in the country! When resources are privately owned, three important things happen: First, individual owners conserve and manage their property for the long-run, rather than rush to exploit it. If you own a forest or a herd of elephants, the last thing you want to do is destroy them! Second, owners have both the moral and economic incentive to defend resources from poachers and polluters. Third, when individuals own resources, they have the moral and legal responsibility to avoid using their property in ways that will harm others.
Here are some examples of how private ownership and individual responsibility protect both individual rights and social welfare: Privatizing Rivers, Streams and Oceans. In England and Scotland, individuals can acquire private property rights to fish in many rivers and streams . Trespassers who violate these rights are subject to significant fines. According to a 1991 study by the National Center for Policy Analysis entitled Progressive Environmentalism, "Since the 1950s, the Anglers' Cooperative Association in England has handled more than fifteen hundred cases of pollution [and] recovered hundreds of pounds in damages to enable club and riparian owners to restore their fisheries; [and] it has also defeated the attempt by various governments to alter the common law in relation to pollution."

In contrast, the study points out, in the U.S., "Because there are no well-defined property rights, virtually every major species of commercially valuable marine life is being over-fished and stocks are being depleted." To protect marine species, private property rights need to be expanded. This would even make possible the conservation of ocean-going fish and mammals. Fishermen should be able to claim fishing rights in defined areas and be able to defend those rights against poachers. Creating "ocean fishing property rights" would end our oceanic tragedy of the commons. Ocean property rights would create an incentive for fishermen to restrict their harvesting of fish and conserve the oceans in perpetuity. Protecting Endangered Species. Private ownership also protects endangered species. In Kenya, where ivory sales are illegal, the population of elephants has declined over 70% in the last ten years (from 65,000 to 19,000). However, in Zimbabwe, where private ownership of elephants is allowed, elephant populations have increased from 30,000 to 43,000 in the last decade. Harnessing the Creative Power of Free Men and
Women. Increasingly, private charities are discovering the power of private ownership and the free market. The Nature Conservancy protects the environment by buying land with privately donated funds. Since 1951, they have preserved over 2.4 million acres of environmentally threatened land. One of the Conservancy's most imaginative innovations is "debt for nature swaps," where banks partially forgive debts of poor countries in exchange for their protecting ecologically important areas. Many other private groups throughout the world are engaged in conservation, including the National Wildlife Foundation, the Audubon Society, and Trout Unlimited. In the U.S., 11,000 private duck clubs have protected 5 to 7 million acres of wetlands. The

creativity and compassion of ordinary citizens, combined with the financial power of the free market, are our best hope for protecting the environment. Making Peace With Our Environment The path to healing our environment lies neither in the chaos of common ownership of property nor in the tyranny of government management. Common ownership of resources harms the environment because it fails to define property rights, making
it in everyone's interest to rush to exploit resources. Government management harms the environment because it makes property rights subject to the will of bureaucrats, guaranteeing only that the interests of the state and the most powerful social groups will prevail. The

proper environmental role for government is to recognize and protect individual property rights and to avoid either causing or sanctioning environmental harm. When property rights are respected, men and women conserve resources and stop polluters. To make peace with the planet, we need to employ the healing powers of private property, individual responsibility, and the free market.

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Spending link: Satellites cost $$

The average cost per satellite for only construction and launch is 500 million dollars
GlobalCom 2010 [global provider in satellite services, The cost of building and launching satellites.
http://www.globalcomsatphone.com/hughesnet/satellite/costs.html]

Satellites are not cheap business. They cost a lot of money to design, construct, launch and monitor . Just how much money? If you have at least $290 million in your bank account, that money can go into making a satellite that can track and monitor hurricanes. Add about $100 million dollars more if you want a satellite that carries a missile-warning device. What makes satellites so
expensive? Some of the factors that drive the cost of satellites are the equipment and materials used to build them. Transponders alone hundreds of thousands of dollars a year to maintain, while bandwidth cost per MHz is priced at a minimum of about $3,500 a month. Running a satellite at a 36MHz bandwidth will cost over $1.5 million a year. There are also the other gadgets and equipment that have to be built into the satellite in order for it to perform its intended function. These can include computers, computer software and cameras. Another factor that contributes to the expense associated with satellites is the cost of putting one into orbit. It is

estimated that a single satellite launch can range in cost from a low of about $50 million to a high of about $400 million. Launching a space shuttle mission can easily cost $500 million dollars, although one mission is capable of carrying multiple satellites and send them into orbit. Also to be considered in the cost of satellites is its maintenance. After getting one into orbit, it has to be monitored from a ground facility, which will require manpower. Satellites are also not impervious to damage or down times. Furthermore, if things dont go too well during a launch, a multi-million endeavor can either end up in pieces or sustain damages that will cost more money to repair. Some of the top satellite firms in the U.S. are
Hughes, Boeing, Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp. and Lockheed Martin.

Current satellite maintenance and replacement costs billions of dollars

Smith 2010 [Marcia,
is the founder and editor of SpacePolicyOnline.com. She has almost four decades of experience in space policy, including 31 years at the Congressional Research Service on Capitol Hill (1975-2006), and three at the National Research Council's Space Studies Board and Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board (2006-2009). She is the North American Editor of the journal Space Policy, and is a Fellow of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), American Astronautical Society (AAS), and British Interplanetary Society (BIS)., Pricetag is Staggering for New Weather Satellites Say Senate Appropriators, Space Policy Online, 9/20/10, http://www.spacepolicyonline.com/pages/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1113:pricetag-is-staggering-for-new-weathersatellites-say-senate-appropriators&catid=75:news&Itemid=68] In its report on the FY2011 defense appropriations bill (S. 3800, S. Rept. 111-295), the

Senate Appropriations Committee calculates the cost of cancelling the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) and restructuring it so that DOD and NOAA once again have separate systems at more than $20 billion, what it calls a "staggering" cost. The total includes $5 billion already spent on NPOESS, and an estimated $15.4 billion for the replacement NOAA Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) and DOD Defense Weather Satellite System (DWSS): $9.4 billion for JPSS and $6 billion for DWSS. Funding for
DWSS is included in this bill. Funding for JPSS is in the Commerce-Justice-Science appropriations bill (S. 3636, S. Rept. 111-229). The committee also expressed reservations about the cost of the restructured program in its report accompanying that bill. Calling it "premature" for DOD to set up a program office for DWSS, the committee said there "must be a more cost-effective way for DOD to utilize NOAA's significant investment." The committee zeroed DOD's $325.5 million request for NPOESS and included $50 million for DWSS specifically and only for development of unique sensors DOD needs.

Satellite failures can cost NASA over $400 million dollars and cause funds to be taken from other missions
FoxNews 2011 [FoxNews.com, NASA's $400 Million Glory Satellite Lost in Pacific Ocean, 3/4/11, http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/03/04/nasasays-rocket-carrying-latest-satellite-reach-orbit/]

A rocket that blasted off early Friday carrying the $424 million Earth-observation satellite Glory failed to reach orbit, NASA said, and has most likely crashed into the ocean. In a press conference Friday morning, Omar Baez, NASA launch director, voiced the space
agency's worries about the fate of Glory. "All indications are that the satellite and rocket are in the southern Pacific Ocean," Baez said. Rich Straka of Orbital Sciences Corp., the private company responsible for the satellite and launch, had few details to add. "Right now we're crunching the data, but there really isn't enough data to say anything more than the fairing didn't separate," Straka said. Ron Grabe, executive vice president with the company, described it as a "tough night for all of us." The teams involved are devastated, Grabe said, comparing this latest loss to a similar incident in 2009, when NASAs Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) mission also failed.

Unlike commercial rocket launches, NASA's efforts aren't insured -- and there is rarely a paid backup, a NASA spokesman said. For the space agency to continue with the mission, it will have to divert funds from another project or request additional funding.

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GEOSS NEG

Politics: Plan Unpop

Funding on weather satellites unpopular - congress
Brinton 10 (turner, staff writer for space news, White House Asks Congress for More Weather Satellite Money http://www.space.com/10456-white-house-asks-congress-weather-satellitemoney.html, December 2010)

The White House is asking Congress to significantly boost funding in 2011 for a planned civilian weather satellite system as lawmakers draft a budget measure that would hold spending on most other federal programs to 2010 levels, according to government and industry sources. With Congress having been unable to pass any spending bills for 2011, the federal government has been operating since Oct. 1, the start of the fiscal year, under a series of stopgap measures known as continuing resolutions, which typically hold funding to prior year levels. A final continuing resolution that would fund the government for the remainder of fiscal 2011 could be introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives as early as Dec. 8, and the White House has requested that the measure include an additional $528 million for the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), sources said. The JPSS program was established after the White House dismantled the joint civil-military National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) in February.
WASHINGTON ? NASA was directed to build the JPSS on behalf of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), while the U.S. Air Force is pursuing a military system separately. NOAA requested $1.06 billion in 2011

The $382 million appropriated for NPOESS in 2010 would be the amount the agency can spend on JPSS in 2011 under a full-year continuing resolution unless Congress were to make a specific exception to provide more funding. In anticipation of a full-year continuing resolution, the White House Office of Management and Budget sent a list of proposed budget
for JPSS, which will utilize hardware developed under the NPOESS satellite program. changes for high-priority programs to Congress Dec. 2. The so-called anomaly request did not include any more money for JPSS, sources said. However, a revised request delivered Dec. 6 included an extra $528 million for JPSS, for a total of $910 million, if it is approved by lawmakers. The White House also asked for more money for the Air Force?s GPS 3 satellite program for a next-generation global positioning satellite system. The service requested $194.8 million in 2011 to begin long-lead procurement of GPS 3 satellite hardware. New procurement programs are not allowed to begin under a continuing resolution, and thus the White House asked Congress provide full funding and allow procurement to begin, according to documents obtained by Space News.

Republicans oppose space climate research. Christian Science Monitor March 5 (2011, Pete Spotts, Staff Writer, An inglorious end for NASA's Glory satellite)
The satellite's loss also comes at a time when NASA's climate-related missions many already long in the tooth have come under increasing criticism from congressional Republicans skeptical that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels and from land-use changes are doing anything to influence climate. Some lawmakers have suggested that the $1.8 billion in NASA's FY 2011 budget for earth science, which includes climate-related research, would be better spend on human spaceflight or eliminated as a deficit-cutting measure.

Funding for weather satellites unpopular Clark 2011 (Stephen, journalist for Spaceflight Now, http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n1104/15jpss/ April 2011) The administrator of NOAA warned lawmakers this week the United States could face eroding weather forecast capabilities due to insufficient funding for the Joint Polar Satellite System, a new series of civil spacecraft to monitor severe storms, observe major disasters and collect information for long-term climate prediction models. NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco. Credit: NOAA Like many federal agencies, NOAA was hit with a significant funding reduction in the budget bill passed by Congress Thursday. The agency's procurement budget, which includes satellite development, was reduced by $25 million from the 2010 level to $1.34 billion through the end of September. That's more than $700 million less than
the spending requested by NOAA for fiscal year 2012, which begins Oct. 1. Agency leaders maintain that is the budget necessary to keep its satellite programs on track, especially the next-generation polar-orbiting JPSS constellation. Jane Lubchenco, NOAA's administrator, told the Senate Commerce Committee's oceans, atmosphere, fisheries and coast guard subcommittee Wednesday that the budget legislation then under consideration would "almost certainly" lead to a gap in weather coverage. "I think it's safe to say there will almost certainly be a gap in coverage that, at this point, looks like it might be at least 18 months," Lubchenco said. The data gap could start as soon as 2017, according to Lubchenco. Congress passed the budget bill Thursday and sent it to the White House for President Obama to sign it into law. NASA plans to launch a stopgap weather and climate research satellite named the NPOESS Preparatory Project, or NPP, into polar orbit in October. NPP has a five-year life span in space, meaning it could be lost by late 2016 or early 2017 if its operations cannot be extended.

The launch of the JPSS 1 satellite will occur in September 2016, at the earliest. And that's only if funding is doubled soon, which isn't likely in the current budget environment. It's more likely the launch could be pushed back to 2018, officials said. Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska, said he and other senators attempted to raise support for more JPSS funding in the federal budget, but their efforts were shot down in the name of fiscal austerity.

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