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Volume 8, Issue 11 December 2012

Is America Still a Center-Right Country?

Soon after Ronald Reagans election, the editors of AEIs Public Opinion magazine looked at ideology in America and especially at the social characteristics and policy preferences of conservatives. The editors noted how lacking in ideological rigor or coherence conservatism and liberalism are in the populace at large. They showed that conservatives with less than a high school degree were often very different in their beliefs from conservatives with college training and that differences among self-identified conservatives were often greater than differences between conservatives and liberals. The editors also noted that the polls provided different impressions of the ideological composition of the country. More than 30 years later, that is still the case. Some national surveys show moderates narrowly outnumbering conservatives among adults, but others show conservatives leading them. Liberals continue to lag both groups. When voters step into the voting booth, most describe themselves as moderate. Of the rest, more consistently say they are conservative than liberal. Still, the number of liberals in the electorate reached an all-time high in 2012 (25 percent), and the number of conservatives was very close to the all-time high point (36 percent in 1984 and 35 percent in 2012). Self-reported ideological identification is a blunt question, and when Gallup probes and asks people about economic and social issues, more people say they are conservative when it comes to economic issues than on social issues (see page 2). On some prominent social issues, Americans are moving in a more liberal or permissive direction. They have also moved away from the notion that government should promote traditional values. For the first time in Gallups data, a majority in 2012 said government should not favor any particular set of values. The observation of AEIs Public Opinion editors in 1980 still holds true: the choice of one [ideological] tag or the other is not random or meaningless. But the reasons are not ideological. That is, they do not, for the most part, involve adherence to a formal package of political ideas and prescriptions. Instead, they are generally narrow, specific, and individualistic. We suspect that the terms conservative and liberal have more resonance for Americans than they did a generation ago. The country is clearly centrist, with evidence of center-right and center-left impulses.

Voters Ideological Identification

Conservative
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 49%

Moderate

Liberal

51%

47% 36%

47% 35%

49%

47%

50%

46% 34%

44% 34%

41% 35%

32%

32% 20%

30% 18%

33% 21%

29% 20%

18%

17%

20%

21%

22%

25%

Source: Congressional Quarterly compilation of national presidential exit poll data.

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Q: Thinking about _________ issues, would you say that your views on ___________ are . . . ?
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Conservative on social issues 28% Liberal on social issues Liberal on economic issues 20% Conservative on economic issues

46% 38%

Source: Gallup, latest that of May 2012.

Q: Some people think the government should promote traditional values in our society. Others think the government should not favor any particular set of values. Which comes closer to your view? Government should promote traditional values 1993 1998 2004 2008 2011 2012
Source: Gallup, latest that of September 2012.

Government should not favor any particular set of values 53% 55 54 49 48 44 42% 38 41 45 46 52

Q: Do you think . . . ? Democratic Party Is too liberal Too conservative About right 47% 8 41 32
(continued on the next page)

Republican Party 15% 46

Source: Marist/McClatchy, December 2012.

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS

Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Michael Barone, Resident Fellow; Henry Olsen, Vice President. Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew Rugg, Editor.

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Social Issues Over Time

On some social issues, the country is moving in a more liberal direction as the line graph below shows. There is clear movement on gay marriage and legalization of marijuana. On abortion, there seems to be little movement. Support for applying the death penalty has fallen, but a majority still approves its use.
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Abortion should be illegal under all circumstances 15% Marijuana should be made illegal Favor death penalty for a person convicted of murder Oppose allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally 61% 46% 40%

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2012

Source: Gallup, latest that May 2012 (gay and lesbian relations and abortion); Gallup, latest of October 2011 (marijuana); Gallup, latest that of October 2011 (death penalty).

Public Policy vs Private Morality

In recent surveys on issues such as gay marriage, Americans are moving in a more liberal direction on the policy questions, even as they say that for them personally, the behavior is morally wrong. In other areas, views are moving in tandem. Around half now say the use of marijuana should be legal and nearly that many say that it is morally acceptable. When it comes to the death penalty, most favor its use and believe it is morally acceptable. On other issues such as abortion, policy views have not changed. Most Americans tell Gallup that abortion should be legal only under certain circumstances, while a bare majority believes that it is morally wrong to have an abortion. On other issues, from extramarital sexual relations to cloning to wearing fur, there has been little movement over the past decade.

Gay marriage
Q: Do you think . . . ? 1996 Marriages between same sex couples should be recognized by the law as valid with the same rights as traditional marriage Should not 2012 Q: Next, Im going to read you a series of statements about personal behavior. Regardless of whether or not you think it should be legal, for each one, please tell me whether you personally believe it is . . . 2012 27% 68 50% 48 Sex between two adults of the same gender is morally acceptable Morally wrong
Source: PRRI, October 2012.

Note: In 1977, when the National Opinion Research Center asked whether homosexual couples should have the right to marry one another, 12 percent said yes, and 73 percent no. Source: Gallup, latest that of 2012.

42% 52

(continued on the next page)

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Marijuana
Q: Do you think . . . ? 1969 The use of marijuana should be made legal Should not
Source: Gallup, latest that of October 2011.

Q: Is . . . ? 2011 48% 50 Smoking marijuana is morally acceptable Morally wrong 2006 10% 50 2012 48% 45

12% 84

Source: Pew Research Center, February 2006; Public Religion Research Institute, October 2012.

Abortion
Q: Do you think . . . ? 1975 Abortion should be legal under any circumstances Legal only under certain circumstances Illegal in all circumstances
Source: Gallup, latest that of May 2012.

2012 25% 52 20

21% 54 22

Q: Next Im going to read you a list of issues. Regardless of whether or not you think it should be legal, for each one, please tell me whether you personally believe that in general it is morally acceptable or morally wrong. How about . . . ? 2001 2012 Morally acceptable to have an abortion 42% 38% Morally wrong 45 51
Source: Gallup, latest that of May 2012.

Death penalty
Q: Do you . . . ? 1985 Favor the death penalty for a person convicted of murder Oppose
Source: Gallup, latest that of October 2011.

2011 61% 35

72% 20

Q: Next, Im going to read you a list of issues. Regardless of whether or not you think it should be legal, for each one, please tell me whether you personally believe that in general it is morally acceptable or morally wrong. How about . . . ? 2001 2012 The death penalty is morally acceptable 63% 58% Morally wrong 27 34
Source: Gallup, latest that of May 2012.

Other issues
Q: Next, Im going to read you a list of issues. Regardless of whether or not you think it should be legal, for each one, please tell me whether you personally believe that in general it is morally acceptable or morally wrong. How about . . . ? Low support and little movement Morally acceptable 2001 2012 Married men and women having an affair 7% 7% Cloning humans 7 10 Polygamy 7 11 Suicide 13 14 Cloning animals 31 34 Doctor-assisted suicide 49 45 Majority support with some movement Divorce 59% Having a baby outside of marriage 45 67% 54 Majority support and less movement Morally acceptable 2001 2012 Sex between an unmarried man and woman Medical research using stem cells obtained from human embryos Buying and wearing clothing made of animal fur Gambling 53% 52 60 63 59% 58 60 64

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Center Right on the Role of Government?

The NBC/Wall Street Journal trend here shows that adults today are divided about whether the government should do more to solve problems and help people or whether it is doing too many things that are better left to businesses and individuals. In the 2012 presidential exit poll, a majority of voters said that the government is doing too many things. Most Americans have long embraced social welfare programs for the poor as an important responsibility of the government. A fall 2012 Public Religion Research Institute poll confirms that government policies aimed at helping the poor serve as a critical safety net in the eyes of most Americans. Also in 2012, 63 percent told Pew that the government has a responsibility to take care of people who cant take care of themselves. But at the same time, 72 percent believe the poor have become too dependent on government assistance programs. A recent Gallup poll also found that a majority believe that it is not the governments role to make sure all Americans have health care coverage. The polls suggest that Americans want government to provide support for the needy, but they worry about the moral cost of these commitments.
Q: Im going to read you two statements about the role of government, and Id like to know which one comes closer to your point of view. Government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of people, or Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals.
70 60 50 40 30 20 Government should do more to solve problems and help people Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals

49% 47%

1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012

Note: Question was asked of registered voters July through October 2008 and October 2010. Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of June 2012.

Voters
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 59% 56% 44% 52% 43% 53% 47%

Should do more to solve problems Doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals 49% 46% 51% 43% 56% 51% 43%

42%

38%

1994

1996

2000

2002

2004

2008

2010

2012

Source: National exit polls, latest that of November 2012.

(continued on the next page)

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Q: Please tell if you agree with the following statement . . .? 1987 Agree that it is the responsibility of the the government to take care of people who cant take care of themselves Disagree
Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of September 2012.

2012

71% 24 36

59%

Q: Here is another series of statements on some different topics. The government should guarantee every citizen enough to eat and a place to sleep. Do you . . . ? 1987 Agree that the government should guarantee every citizen enough to eat and a place to sleep Disagree
Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of April 2012.

2012

62% 33 39

59%

Q: Do you . . . ? 2000 Think it is the responsibility of the federal government to make sure all Americans have health care coverage It is not the responsibility of the federal government
Source: Gallup, latest that of November 2012.

2012

59% 38

44% 54

Q: Now, as I read a pair of statements, please tell me whether the first statement or the second statement comes closer to your own viewseven if neither is exactly right. Government policies aimed at helping the poor serve as a critical safety net, which help people in hard times get back on their feet Government policies aimed at helping the poor create a culture of dependency where people are provided with too many handouts
Source: Public Religion Research Institute, October 2012.

63%

32

Q: Here is another series of statements on some different topics. Poor people have become too dependent on government assistance programs. Do you . . . ? 1992 Agree that poor people have become too dependent on government assistance programs Disagree
Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of, April 2012.

2012

79% 18 23

72%

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The Republican Brand: How Damaged?

Republicans have lost the popular vote for president in five of the past six elections. Eighteen states (and D.C.) with 242 electoral votes have cast their ballots for Democratic presidential candidates in each of the last six elections. Democrats won the national vote for the House in 2012. Current poll responses show a GOP deficit as well. On Election Day, 38 percent of voters said they were Democrats and 32 percent Republican. In early December, 45 percent said they had negative feelings about the Republican Party and 30 percent positive ones. For the Democratic Party, the responses were 35 percent negative and 44 percent positive. The Democratic Party got a better grade for its 2012 campaign performance than did the Republican Party, and a new Quinnipiac poll shows the approval rating of the Republicans in Congress lagging the Democrats there.
Feelings towards the Republican Party, 19902012
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Positive

Negative 45% 30%

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Note: Neutral category not shown. In a new early December 2012 Pew Research Center poll, 48 percent had a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party and 47 percent an unfavorable opinion. The responses for the Republican Party were 36 percent and 59 percent, respectively. Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of December 2012.

Q: Students are often given the grades A, B, C, D, or Fail to describe the quality of their work. Looking back over the campaign, what grade would you give to each of the following groups for the way they conducted themselves in the campaign? First . . . . Grade of A or B Republican Party 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 45% 29 27 45 50 28 38 54
(continued on the next page)

Democratic Party 33% 58 48 47 37 69

Note: Sample is self-identified voters. Source: Pew Research Center, November 2012.

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Q: Do you . . . ? Democrats in Congress Approve of the way they are handling their job Disapprove
Source: Quinnipiac, December 2012.

Republicans in Congress 23% 54 69

37%

Q: Now, I would like to read you a list of issues that some people have said are important to them. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for each one, who will better handle this issue Republicans in Congress or Democrats in Congress. Democrats in Congress Standing up for the middle class Health care Social security and Medicare Sharing your values Having a vision for the future Jobs Taxes Foreign policy Being a strong leader The economy Can get things done 50% 51 48 47 44 45 44 41 40 40 34 Republicans in Congress 38% 40 40 42 42 46 48 46 45 49 41

Note: Asked of likely voters. Source: George Washington University/Politico Battleground, August 2012.

Partisan identification in presidential exit polls, 19722012

Voters
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Democrat Republican Independent 38% 32% 29%

Source: Congressional Quarterly compilation of national presidential exit poll data.

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Closing the Book on Campaign 2012

Starting in 1988, the Pew Research Center began asking people who said they voted in presidential contests about their campaign experiences. We reprint some of the findings from their 2012 post-election report below. Satisfaction with the candidates in 2012 was high, and voters felt they learned enough during the campaign to make an informed choice. Two-thirds said the debates were helpful. Thirty-eight percent said there was more discussion of issues in the election than in past elections, and in a separate question, two-thirds said there was more mudslinging. Voters felt their own votes were counted fairly, but they were less confident about votes across the country.
Q: Now that the campaign is over, how . . . ? Q: During the campaign, did you feel you . . . ? Q: How helpful were the . . . ? Very/fairly satisfied with the choice of Presidential candidates 62% 61 51 68 66 67 70 Learned enough to make an informed choice 59% 77 75 83 86 85 87 Debates were very/ somewhat helpful 48% 70 41 62 62 67 66

1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Note: In 2012, 16 percent were not very satisfied with the candidates and 12 percent not at all satisfied.

Q: Compared with past elections, would you say . . . ? 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 More discussion of issues 59% 25 46 47 57 38 Less 34% 65 36 42 34 51 More mudslinging 68% 49 34 72 54 68 Less 16% 36 46 14 27 19

Q: Overall, how well do you think . . . ? Voting process was managed very/fairly well in the area where you live Q: How confident are you . . . ? Very/somewhat confident your vote was accurately counted Votes across the country were accurately counted 75% 90% 93%

Note: In 2004, 85 percent were confident that the votes across the country were counted fairly; in 2006, 85 percent gave that response, and in 2008, 84 percent did. Views about whether your own vote was accurately counted have been more stable in past general elections.

(continued on the next page)

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Its Over!
Pews post-election survey of people who said they voted documented significant growth in the Internet audience. Nearly half, 47 percent, reported getting most of their news about the campaign from the Internet, up from 3 percent in 1996. Nearly six-in-ten voters made up their minds about their vote before the conventions. Absentee and early voting continues to grow and in this survey, 37 percent reported voting before Election Day. The voters rated the pollsters performance and separately, the publics performance, with a C+, and they gave the media a C.
Q: How did you get . . . ? Got most of your news about the presidential campaign from . . . Television 1992 2012 82% 67 27 Newspapers 57% Internet 3% (1996) 47 Radio 12% 20

Q: When did you definitely decide to vote for ______ ? Before 2012 Earlier this year During/after the conventions During/just after the debates Within a week of Election Day Q: Did you vote . . . ? 2002 Voted on Election Day Before 85% 15 37 2012 63% 41% 16 19 11 9

Note: Nineteen percent of those who voted before Election Day voted in person, and 17 percent mailed in a ballot. Fifty-nine percent of voters in the West voted early, more than in any other region. Only 8 percent of people in the Northeast reported voting early. Thirty-one percent in the Midwest and 44 percent in the South did.

Q: Students are often given the grades A, B, C, D, or Fail to describe the quality of their work. Looking back over the campaign, what grade would you give each of the following groups for the way they conducted themselves in the campaign. First, . . . ? Voters Pollsters Campaign consultants The press Q: Are you . . . ? Happy Barack Obama was reelected President The Republican Party maintained control of the U.S. House of Representatives The Democratic Party maintained control of the U.S. Senate 52% 52 56 Unhappy 45% 42 40 Average grade C+ C+ C+ C

Note: The Pew data reported here are telephone interviews conducted November 811, 2012 among a national sample of 1,206 people who said they voted in the 2012 election. The interviews were conducted among registered voters who were previously interviewed by Pew on October 31November 3, 2012. Source: Pew Research Center, 2012.

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