Traffic Engineering

2
Traffic Engineering Traffic Engineering
One billion+ t erminals in voice net work alone
Plus dat a, video, fax, finance, et c.
I magine all users want service simult aneouslyit s not even
nearly possible (despit e our common int uit ion)
I n pract ice, t he act ual amount of equipment provisioned is vast ly
less t han would support all users simult aneously
And yet , by and large, we get t he impression of phone and dat a
net works t hat work very well!
How is t his possible?
Traffic theory !!
3
Traffic Engineering Traffic Engineering Trade Trade--offs offs
Design number of t ransmission pat hs, or radio channels?
How many required normally?
What if t here is an overload?
Design swit ching and rout ing mechanisms
How do we rout e efficient ly?
E.g.
High-usage t runk groups
Overflow t runk groups
Where should t raffic flows be combined or kept separat e?
Design net work t opology
Number and sizing of swit ching nodes and locat ions
Number and sizing of t ransmission syst ems and locat ions
Survivabilit y
4
Characterization of Telephone Traffic Characterization of Telephone Traffic
Calling Rate Calling Rate () also called arrival rat e, or at t empt s rat e, et c.
Average number of calls init iat ed per unit t ime (e.g. at t empt s per
hour)
Each call arrival is independent of ot her calls (we assume)
Call at t empt arrivals are random in t ime
Unt il ot herwise, we assume a large calling group or source pool
T

= I f receive oo calls from a t erminal in t ime TT:

I f receive o calls from mm t erminals in t ime T:
T

=
g
Group calling rat e
T m
=

Per t erminal
calling rat e
5
Characterization of Telephone Traffic ( 2) Characterization of Telephone Traffic ( 2)
Calling rat e assumpt ion:
Number of calls in t ime T is
Poisson dist ribut ed:
I n our case
... 2 , 1 , 0
!
) ( =

=

x
x
e
x p
x

Time bet ween calls is -ve exponent ially dist ribut ed:
s s =

t e t f
t
0 ) (

1
= mean
T =
Class Question: What do t hese observat ions about t elephone t raffic
imply about t he nat ure of t he t raffic sources?
6
--ve Exponential Holding Times ve Exponential Holding Times
I mplies the Memory I mplies the Memory--less property less property
Prob. a call last anot her minut e is independent of how long t he call has
already last ed! Call forget s t hat it has already survived t o t ime T
1
( ) ( ) t T P T T t T T P > = > + >
1 1
( )
( )
( )
1
1 1
1 1


T T P
T T t T T P
T T t T T P
>
> + >
= > + >
Proof:
( )
( )
1
1
T T P
t T T P
>
+ >
=
h T
h t h T
e
e e
/
/ /
1
1

=
h t
e
/
=
h T
h t T
e
e
/
/ ) (
1
1

+
=
( ) t T P > =
h t
e t T P
/
) (

= >
Recall:
7
Characterization of Telephone Traffic ( 3) Characterization of Telephone Traffic ( 3)
Holding Time Holding Time (hh)
Mean lengt h of t ime a call last s
Probabilit y of last ing t ime t or more is also ve exponent ial in
nat ure:
Real voice calls fit s very closely t o t he negat ive exponent ial form
above
As non-voice calls begin t o dominat e, more and more calls have a
const ant holding t ime charact erist ic
Departure Rate Departure Rate ():
0 ) (
/
> = >

t e t T P
h t
0 0 ) ( < = > t t T P
h
1
=
8
Some Real Holding Time Data Some Real Holding Time Data
9
Traffic Traffic Volume ( V) Volume ( V)
h V =
o = # calls in t ime period T
h = mean holding t ime
V = volume of calls in t ime period T
I n N. America t his is hist orically usually expressed in t erms of ccs ccs :
Hundred call seconds
cc cc ss
1 ccs is volume of t raffic equal t o:
one circuit busy for 100 seconds, or
t wo circuit s busy for 50 seconds, or
100 circuit s busy for one second, et c.
10
Traffic Traffic I ntensity ( A) I ntensity ( A)
Also called traffic flow traffic flow or simply traffic traffic .
o = # calls in t ime period T
h = mean holding t ime
T = t ime period of observat ions
h
A

=
T
Unit s:
ccs/ hour ccs/ hour, or
dimensionless (if h and T are in t he same unit s of t ime)
Erlang Erlang unit
h =

=
o = # calls in t ime period T
h = mean holding t ime
T = t ime period of observat ions
= calling rat e
o = # calls in t ime period T
h = mean holding t ime
T = t ime period of observat ions
= calling rat e
= depart ure rat e
T

=
Recall:
h
1
=
Recall:
V
=
T
V h =
Recall:
o = # calls in t ime period T
h = mean holding t ime
T = t ime period of observat ions
= calling rat e
= depart ure rat e
V = call volume
11
The The Erlang Erlang
Dimensionless unit of t raffic int ensit y
Named aft er Danish mat hemat ician A. K. Erlang (1878-1929)
Usually denot ed by symbol EE.
1 Erlang is equivalent t o t raffic int ensit y t hat keeps:
one circuit busy 100% of t he t ime, or
t wo circuit s busy 50% of t he t ime, or
four circuit s busy 25% of t he t ime, et c.
26 Erlangs is equivalent t o t raffic int ensit y t hat keeps :
26 circuit s busy 100% of t he t ime, or
52 circuit s busy 50% of t he t ime, or
104 circuit s busy 25% of t he t ime, et c.
12
Class Class
Could 4 E be produced as a t raffic int ensit y by:
16 sources? (What is t he ut ilizat ion?)
4 sources (same)
1 source?
What is special about t he t raffic int ensit y if it pert ains t o one
source or t erminal only?
13
Erlang ( 2) Erlang ( 2)
How does t he Erlang Erlang unit correspond t o ccs ccs?
Percent age of t ime a t erminal is busy is equivalent t o t he t raffic
generat ed by t hat t erminal in Erlangs, or
Average number of circuit s in a group busy at any t ime
Typical usages:
residence phone -> 0.02 E
business phone -> 0.15 E
int eroffice t runk -> 0.70 E
0.027E =
1E =
100 call seconds
1 ccs hour
1 hour 60 min hr 60 sec min

=
3600 call seconds
36 ccs hour
1 hour 60 min hr 60 sec min

=
60 min hr 60 sec min
60 min hr 60 sec min
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Traffic Offered, Carried, and Lost Traffic Offered, Carried, and Lost
Offered Traffic Offered Traffic (TT
O O
) equivalent t o Traffic I nt ensit y (AA)
Takes int o account all attempted calls, whet her blocked or not ,
and uses t heir expected holding t imes
Also Carried Traffic Carried Traffic (TT
C C
) and Lost Traffic Lost Traffic (TT
L L
)
Consider a group of 150 t erminals, each wit h 10% ut ilizat ion (or
in ot her words, 0.1 E per source) and dedicated service dedicated service:
1
150
1
150
each t erminal has an
out going t runk
(i.e. t erminal: t runk rat io = 1: 1)
T
O
= A = 150 x 0.10 E = 15.0 E
T
C
= 150 x 0.10 E = 15.0 E
T
L
= 0 E
15
Traffic Offered, Carried, and Lost ( 2) Traffic Offered, Carried, and Lost ( 2)
A = T
O
= T
C
+ T
L
Traffic
I nt ensity
Offered
Traffic
Carried
Traffic
Lost
Traffic
T
L
= T
O
x Prob. Blocking (or congest ion)
= P(B) x T
O
= P(B) x A
Circuit Utilization Circuit Utilization () - also called Circuit Efficiency Circuit Efficiency
proport ion of t ime a circuit is busy, or
average proport ion of t ime each circuit in a group is busy
C
T
=
# of Trunks
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Grade of Service ( gos) Grade of Service ( gos)
I n general, t he t erm used for some t raffic design obj ect ive
I ndicat ive of cust omer sat isfact ion
I n syst ems where blocked calls are cleared, usually use:
L L
O L C
T T
( )
T T +T
P B gos = = =
Typical gos obj ect ives:
in busy hour, range from 0.2% t o 5% for local calls, however
generally no more t hat 1%
long dist ance calls oft en slight ly higher
I n syst ems wit h queuing, gos oft en defined as t he probabilit y of
delay exceeding a specific lengt h of t ime
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Grade of Service Related Terms Grade of Service Related Terms
Busy Hour Busy Hour
One hour period during which t raffic volume or call at t empt s is t he
highest overall during any given t ime period
Peak ( or Daily) Busy Hour Peak ( or Daily) Busy Hour
Busy hour for each day, usually varies from day t o day
Busy Season Busy Season
3 mont hs (not consecut ive) wit h highest average daily busy hour
High Day Busy Hour ( HDBH) High Day Busy Hour ( HDBH)
One hour period during busy season wit h t he highest load
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Grade of Service Related Terms ( 2) Grade of Service Related Terms ( 2)
Highest Highest ABSBH ABSBH
Average Busy Season Busy Hour ( ABSBH) Average Busy Season Busy Hour ( ABSBH)
One hour period wit h highest average daily busy hour during t he
busy season
Average Busy Season Busy Hour ( ABSBH) Average Busy Season Busy Hour ( ABSBH)
One hour period wit h highest average daily busy hour during t he
busy season
For example, assume days shown below make up t he busy season:
1-Apr 2-Apr 3-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 9-Apr 10-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 16-Apr 17-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr Mean
00:00 to 01:00 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.8 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.5
01:00 to 02:00 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.9 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.5
02:00 to 03:00 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.9 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.4
03:00 to 04:00 1.2 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.9 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.4
04:00 to 05:00 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.7 2.3 1.6 2.2 1.5 2.1 1.6 2.3 2.1 1.7 2.5 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.5 2.3 1.9
05:00 to 06:00 2.2 2.3 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.0
06:00 to 07:00 1.7 2.2 1.7 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.3 1.6 2.4 2.2 1.5 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.7 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0
07:00 to 08:00 2.0 2.8 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.9 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.9 2.3 2.1 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.7 2.4
08:00 to 09:00 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.5 3.0
09:00 to 10:00 3.4 3.4 4.0 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.7 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.9 3.4 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.1 3.4 3.9 3.9 3.4 3.5
10:00 to 11:00 5.0 4.4 4.8 4.9 4.1 3.0 4.0 4.9 4.2 4.9 4.7 4.2 3.8 3.0 4.6 4.9 4.4 5.0 4.7 3.6 3.8 4.3
11:00 to 12:00 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.3 4.5 3.8 3.4 4.2 5.0 4.6 5.0 4.7 3.2 3.4 5.0 4.8 4.1 4.3 4.4 3.6 3.7 4.3
12:00 to 13:00 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.8 4.6 3.8 3.3 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.7 4.0 3.3 3.1 5.0 4.9 4.6 4.1 4.2 3.2 3.6 4.1
13:00 to 14:00 4.3 4.2 4.7 4.5 4.8 3.2 3.1 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.9 4.7 3.6 3.6 4.8 4.2 4.8 4.9 4.4 3.3 3.0 4.2
14:00 to 15:00 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.1 4.4 3.6 3.7 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.9 4.5 3.5 3.5 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.3 3.3 3.2 4.2
15:00 to 16:00 4.4 4.9 4.4 4.8 4.5 3.8 3.2 4.1 4.8 4.4 4.5 4.2 3.3 3.9 4.3 4.9 4.4 4.3 4.5 3.7 3.3 4.2
16:00 to 17:00 3.2 3.2 3.8 3.5 3.7 3.1 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.8 3.4 3.2 4.0 3.3 4.0 3.9 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.3 3.5
17:00 to 18:00 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.1 3.4 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.2 2.5 2.9 2.8 3.4 3.5 2.9 3.2 3.0
18:00 to 19:00 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.9 3.4 3.3 3.4 2.7 3.3 3.5 3.5 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.1
19:00 to 20:00 3.3 3.3 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.7 2.7 3.4 3.4 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.1 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.1 2.9 3.1
20:00 to 21:00 2.9 2.3 2.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.4 2.3 2.9 3.0 2.1 2.2 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6
21:00 to 22:00 2.1 1.6 2.3 1.6 2.2 2.1 2.4 1.9 1.6 2.1 2.4 1.7 1.8 2.4 1.8 1.9 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.6 2.0
22:00 to 23:00 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.4 1.7 2.1 1.8 2.0 2.4 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.3 1.7 2.4 1.8 2.0
23:00 to 00:00 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.1 1.9 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.1 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.5
Not e: Red indicat es
daily busy hour
19
Hourly Traffic Variations Hourly Traffic Variations
20
Daily Traffic Variations Daily Traffic Variations
21
Seasonal Traffic Variations Seasonal Traffic Variations
22
Seasonal Traffic Variations ( 2) Seasonal Traffic Variations ( 2)
23
Typical Call Attempts Breakdown Typical Call Attempts Breakdown
Calls Complet ed - 70.7%
Called Part y No Answer - 12.7%
Called Part y Busy - 10.1%
Call Abandoned - 2.6%
Dialing Error - 1.6%
Number Changed or Disconnect ed - 0.4%
Blockage or Failure - 1.9%
24
3 Types of Blocking Models 3 Types of Blocking Models
Blocked Calls Cleared (BCC BCC)
Blocked calls leave syst em and do not ret urn
Good approximat ion for calls in 1
st
choice t runk group
Blocked Calls Held (BCH BCH)
Blocked calls remain in t he syst em for t he amount of t ime it would
have normally st ayed for
I f a server frees up, t he call picks up in t he middle and cont inues
Not a good model of real world behaviour (mat hemat ical
approximat ion only)
Tries t o approximat e call reat t empt effort s
Blocked Calls Wait ( BCW BCW)
Blocked calls ent er a queue unt il a server is available
When a server becomes available, t he calls holding t ime begins
25
Source # 1
Offered Traffic
Source # 2
Offered Traffic
1
2
3
4
10 minutes
Total Traffic Offered:
T
O
= 0.4 E + 0.3 E
T
O
= 0.7 E
2 sources
Blocked Calls Cleared ( BCC) Blocked Calls Cleared ( BCC)
Only one server
Traffic
Carried
1
st
call arrives and is served
1
2
nd
call arrives but
server already busy
2
2
nd
call is cleared
1
3
rd
call arrives and is served
3
4
th
call arrives and is served
4
Total Traffic Carried:
T
C
= 0.5 E
26
Source # 1
Offered Traffic
Source # 2
Offered Traffic
1
2
3
4
10 minutes
Total Traffic Offered:
T
O
= 0.4 E + 0.3 E
T
O
= 0.7 E
2 sources
Blocked Calls Held ( BCH) Blocked Calls Held ( BCH)
Traffic
Carried 1 2 1 2 3 4
Only one server
1
st
call arrives and is served
2
nd
call arrives but server busy
2
nd
call is served
3
rd
call arrives and is served
4
th
call arrives and is served
Total Traffic Carried:
T
C
= 0.6 E
2
nd
call is held until server free
27
Source # 1
Offered Traffic
Source # 2
Offered Traffic
1
2
3
4
10 minutes
Total Traffic Offered:
T
O
= 0.4 E + 0.3 E
T
O
= 0.7 E
2 sources
Blocked Calls Wait ( BCW) Blocked Calls Wait ( BCW)
Only one server
Traffic
Carried
1
st
call arrives and is served
1
2
nd
call arrives but server busy
2
2
nd
call waits until server free
2
nd
call served
1 2
3
rd
call arrives, waits, and
is served
3
4
th
call arrives, waits, and
is served
4
Total Traffic Carried:
T
C
= 0.7 E
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Blocking Probabilities Blocking Probabilities
Syst em must be in a Steady State Steady State
Also called st at e of st at ist ical equilibrium
Arrival Rate Arrival Rate of new calls equals Departure Rate Departure Rate of
disconnect ing calls
Why?
I f calls arrive fast er t hat t hey depart ?
I f calls depart fast er t han t hey arrive?
29
Binomial Distribution Model Binomial Distribution Model
Assumpt ions:
mm sources
AA Erlangs of offered t raffic
per source: T
O
= A/ m
probabilit y t hat a specific source is busy: P( B) = A/ m
Can use Binomial Dist ribut ion t o give t he probabilit y t hat a
cert ain number (kk) of t hose m sources is busy:
k m k
m
A
m
A
k
m
k P

|
.
|

\
|

|
.
|

\
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
= 1 ) (
k m k
m
A
m
A
k m k
m

|
.
|

\
|

|
.
|

\
|
|
|
.
|

\
|

= 1
)! ( !
!
30
Binomial Distribution Model ( 2) Binomial Distribution Model ( 2)
What does it mean if we only have N servers N servers (N< m)?
We can have at most N busy sources at a t ime
What about t he probabilit y of blocking?
All N servers must be busy before we have blocking
) ( ) ( N k P B P > = ) ( ... ) 1 ( ) ( m k P N k P N k P = + + + = + = =
k m k
m
A
m
A
k
m
k P

|
.
|

\
|
|
.
|

\
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
= 1 ) (

|
.
|

\
|

|
.
|

\
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
=
m
N k
k m k
m
A
m
A
k
m
1

|
.
|

\
|

|
.
|

\
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
=
1
0
1 1
N
k
k m k
m
A
m
A
k
m
Remember:
31
Binomial Distribution Model ( 3) Binomial Distribution Model ( 3)
What does it mean if k> N?
I mpossible t o have more sources busy t han servers t o serve t hem
Doesnt accurat ely represent realit y
I n realit y, P( k> N) = 0
I n t his model, we st ill assign P(k> N) = A/ m
Act s as good model of real behaviour
Some people call back, some dont
Which t ype of blocking model is t he Binomial Dist ribut ion?
Blocked Calls Held (BCH)
32
Time Congestions Time Congestions vs. vs. Call Congestion Call Congestion
Time Congest ion
Proport ion of t ime a syst em is congest ed (all servers busy)
Probabilit y of blocking from point of view of servers
Call Congest ion
Probabilit y t hat an arriving call is blocked
Probabilit y of blocking from point of view of calls
Why/ How are t hey different ?
Time Congest ion:
) ( ) ( N k P B P > =
Probabilit y t hat all
servers are busy.
Call Congest ion:
) ( ) ( N k P B P > =
Probabilit y t hat t here are
more sources want ing service
t han t here are servers.
33
Poisson Traffic Model Poisson Traffic Model
Poisson approximat es Binomial wit h large m large m and small A/ m small A/ m
!
) (
k
e
k P
k

=
= Mean # of
Busy Sources
Not e: ) ( lim Binomial Poisson
m
=
What is ?
Mean number of busy sources
= A
!
) (
k
A e
k P
k A
=
34
Poisson Traffic Model ( 2) Poisson Traffic Model ( 2)
Now we can calculat e probabilit y of blocking:
) ( ) ( N k P B P > = ) ( ... ) 1 ( ) ( + + + + = P N P N P
Remember:
!
) (
k
A e
k P
k A
=

=
N k
k A
k
A e
!

=
N k
A
k
e
k
A
!
A
N
k
k
e
k
A

=
1
0
!
1
) , ( ) ( A N P B P =
P = Poisson
N = # Servers
A = Offered Traffic
Example:
) 10 , 7 ( P
Poisson Poisson P(B) wit h 10 E 10 E
offered t o 7 servers 7 servers
35
Traffic Tables Traffic Tables
Consider a 1% chance of blocking in a syst em wit h N= 10 t runks
How much offered t raffic can t he syst em handle?
A
k
k
k
A
k
e
k
A
e
k
A

=

= =
9
0 10
!
1
!
01 . 0
How do we calculat e A?
Very carefully, or
Use t raffic t ables
36
Traffic Tables ( 2) Traffic Tables ( 2)
P( B) = P( N,A) P( B) = P( N,A)
NN
AA
37
Traffic Tables ( 3) Traffic Tables ( 3)
P( N,A) = 0.01 P( N,A) = 0.01
N= 10 N= 10
A= 4.14 E A= 4.14 E
I f system with N = 10 trunks I f system with N = 10 trunks
has P( B) = 0.01: has P( B) = 0.01:
System can handle System can handle
Offered traffic ( A) = 4.14 E Offered traffic ( A) = 4.14 E
38
Poisson Traffic Tables Poisson Traffic Tables
P( N,A) = 0.01 P( N,A) = 0.01
N= 10 N= 10
A= 4.14 E A= 4.14 E
I f system with N = 10 trunks I f system with N = 10 trunks
has P( B) = 0.01: has P( B) = 0.01:
System can handle System can handle
Offered traffic ( A) = 4.14 E Offered traffic ( A) = 4.14 E
39
Efficiency of Large Groups Efficiency of Large Groups
What if t here are N = 100 t runks?
Will t hey serve A = 10 x 4.14 E = 41.4 E wit h same P(B) = 1%?
No!
Traffic t ables will show t hat A = 78.2 E!
Why will 10 t imes t runks serve almost 20 t imes t raffic?
Called efficiency of large groups efficiency of large groups:
For N = 10, A = 4.14 E efficiency % 4 . 41
10
14 . 4
= = =
N
A

For N = 100, A = 78.2 E efficiency % 2 . 78

100
2 . 78
= = =
N
A

The larger t he t runk group, t he great er t he efficiency

40
Erlang B Model Erlang B Model
More sophist icat ed model t han Binomial or Poisson
Blocked Calls Cleared (BCC)
Good for calls t hat can rerout e t o alt ernat e rout e if blocked
No approximat ion for reat t empt s if alt ernat e rout e blocked t oo
Derived using birth birth-- death process death process
See select ed pages from Leonard Kleinrock, Queueing Systems
Volume 1: Theory, John Wiley & Sons, 1975
41
Erlang B Birth Erlang B Birth--Death Process Death Process
Consider infinit esimally small t ime oott during which only one
arrival or depart ure (or none) may occur
Let be t he arrival rat e from an infinit e pool or sources
Let = 1/ h = 1/ h be t he depart ure rat e per call
Not e: if kk calls in syst em, depart ure rat e is kk
St eady St at e Diagram:
0 1 2 N-1 N

2

N ( N-1) 3
I mmediat e Service
Blockage
42
Erlang B Birth Erlang B Birth--Death Process ( 2) Death Process ( 2)
St eady St at e (st at ist ical equilibrium)
Rat e of arrival is t he same as rat e of depart ure
Average rat e a syst em ent ers a given st at e is equal t o t he average
rat e at which t he syst em leaves t hat st at e
0 1 2 N-1 N

2

N ( N-1) 3
P
0
P
1
P
2
P
N-1
P
N
Probability of moving
from st at e 1 t o st at e 2? PP
11
Probability of moving
from st at e 2 t o st at e 1? 22PP
22
43
Erlang B Birth Erlang B Birth--Death Process ( 3) Death Process ( 3)
Set up balance equat ions:
0 1 2 N- 1 N

2

N ( N-1) 3
P
0
P
1 P
2
P
N-1
P
N
0 1
P P =
1 1 2 0
2 P P P P + = +
2 2 3 1
2 3 P P P P + = +
3 3 4 2
3 4 P P P P + = +

1 1 2
( 1)
N N N N
N P P N P P

+ = +
1 N N
N P P

=
0 1
P P =
1 2
2 P P =
2 3
3 P P =

1 k k
P k P

1 N N
P N P

=
1 0
P P

=
2 1
2
P P

=
2
0
2
P

| |
=
|
\ .
3 2
3
P P

=
3
0
6
P

| |
=
|
\ .

0
!
k
k
P
P
k

| |
=
|
\ .
44
Erlang B Birth Erlang B Birth--Death Process ( 4) Death Process ( 4)
Rule of Tot al Probability:
0
1
N
i
i
P
=
=

0
0
!
i
N
i
P
i

=
| |
=
|
\ .

0
0
1
1
!
i
N
i
P
i

=
=
| |
|
\ .

0
!
k
k
P
P
k

| |
=
|
\ .
Recall:
0
1
!
1
!
k
k i
N
i
k
P
i

=
| |
|
\ .
=
| |
|
\ .

A h

= =
Recall:
0
!
!
k
i N k
i
A
k
P
A
i
=
=

For blocking, must be in st at e k = N:

( ) ( , )
N
P B B N A P = =
B = Erlang B
N = # Servers
A = Offered Traffic
0
!
!
N
i N
i
A
N
A
i
=
=

45
Erlang B Traffic Table Erlang B Traffic Table
Example: I n a BCC syst em wit h
m= sources, we can accept a
0.1% chance of blocking in t he
nominal case of 40E offered t raffic.
However, in t he ext reme case of a
20% overload, we can accept a
0.5% chance of blocking.
How many out going t runks do we
need?
B( N,A) = 0.001 B( N,A) = 0.001
A= 40 E A= 40 E
N= 59 N= 59
Nominal design: 59 t runks
B( N,A) = 0.005 B( N,A) = 0.005
AA~~48 E 48 E
N= 64 N= 64
Overload design: 64 t runks
Requirement : 64 t runks
46
Example ( 2) Example ( 2)
P( N,A) = 0.01 P( N,A) = 0.01
N= 32 N= 32
A= 20.3 E A= 20.3 E
47
P( N,A) & B( N,A) P( N,A) & B( N,A) -- High Blocking High Blocking
We recognize t hat Poisson and Erlang B models are only
approximat ions but which is bet t er?
Compare t hem using a 4-t runk group offered A= 10E
Erlang B Erlang B
(4,10) 0.64666 B =
(1 ( ))
C
T A P B =
10 (1 0.64666) =
3.533
C
T E =
3.533
0.88
4
= =
Poisson Poisson
(4,10) 0.98966 P =
(1 ( ))
C
T A P B =
10 (1 0.98966) =
0.103
C
T E =
0.103
0.026
4
= =
How can 4 trunks handle 10E offered How can 4 trunks handle 10E offered
traffic and be busy only 2.6% of the time? traffic and be busy only 2.6% of the time?
48
P( N,A) & B( N,A) P( N,A) & B( N,A) -- High Blocking ( 2) High Blocking ( 2)
Obviously, t he Poisson result is so far off t hat it is almost
meaningless as an approximat ion of t he example.
4 servers offered enough t raffic t o keep 10 servers busy full t ime
(10E) should result in much higher ut ilizat ion.
Erlang B result is more believable.
All 4 t runks are busy most of t he t ime.
What if we ext end t he exercise by increasing A?
Erlang B result goes t o 4E carried t raffic
Poisson result goes t o 0E carried
I llust rat es t he failure of t he Poisson model as valid for sit uat ions
wit h high blocking
Poisson only good approximat ion when low blocking
Use Erlang B if high blocking
49
Engset Distribution Model Engset Distribution Model
BCC model wit h small number of sources (m > N)
= mean depart ure rat e per call
= mean arrival rat e of a single source

k
= arrival rat e if in t he syst em is st at e k

kk
= = ( m ( m-- k) k)
0 1 2 N-1 N

P
0
P
1
P
2
P
N-1
P
N
m ( m-1)
2
( m-2) [ M-( N-2) ] [ m-( N-1) ]
N ( N-1) 3
I mmediat e Service
Blockage
50
Engset Traffic Model ( 2) Engset Traffic Model ( 2)
Balance equat ions give:
0
!
!( )!
k
k
m
P P
k m k

| |
=
|

\ .
and
0
0
1
i
N
i
P
m
i

=
=
| | | |
| |
\ . \ .

therefore:
0
k
k i
N
i
m
k
P
m
i

=
| | | |
| |
\ . \ .
=
| | | |
| |
\ . \ .

but can show that:

A
m A

( ) ( ) P B P k N = =
0
( , , )
N
i
N
i
m
A
m A N
E m N A
m
A
m A i
=
| |
| |
| |

\ .
\ .
= =
| |
| |
| |

\ .
\ .

E = Engset
51
Engset Traffic Table Engset Traffic Table
M = 30 sources M = 30 sources
# trunks ( N) # trunks ( N)
Traffic offered ( A) Traffic offered ( A)
P( B) = E( m,N,A) P( B) = E( m,N,A)
Example: 30 t erminals each provide
0.16 Erlangs t o a concent rat or wit h
a goal of less t han 1% blocking.
How many out going t runks do we
need?
A = 30 x 0.16 = 4.8 E
AA== 4.8 E 4.8 E
P( B) < 0.01 P( B) < 0.01
N= 10 N= 10
Requirement : N = 10 Trunks N = 10 Trunks
Check m < 10 x N?
M= 30 < 10 x 10 = 100
52
Erlang C Distribution Model Erlang C Distribution Model
BCW model wit h infinit e sources infinit e sources (m) and infinit e queue lengt h infinit e queue lengt h
= arrival rat e of new calls
= mean depart ure rat e per call
0 1 2 N Q1 Q2

P
0
P
1
P
2
P
N
P
Q1
P
Q2

2


N N N N 3
I mmediat e Service
Blockage
53
Erlang C Distribution Model ( 2) Erlang C Distribution Model ( 2)
Balance equat ions give:
0
,
!
k
k
A P
P k N
k
= s
and
0
,
!
k
k
k N
A P
P k N
N N

= >
and
0
1
0
1
! !
N i N
i
P
A N A
N N A i

=
=
| |
+
|

\ .

But P(B) = P(k>N):
0
( )
!
k
k N
k N
A P
P B
N N

=
=

0
!
k
N
k N
P A
N N N

=
| |
=
|
\ .

0
0
!
k
N
k
A A
P
N N

=
| |
=
|
\ .

but can show that:

0
k
k
A N
N N A

=
| |
=
|
\ .

0
( )
!
N
A N
P B P
N N A
=

1
0
!
( , )
! !
N
N i N
i
A N
N N A
C N A
A N A
N N A i

=
| |
+
|

\ .

C = Erlang C
54
Erlang C Traffic Tables Erlang C Traffic Tables
# trunks ( N) # trunks ( N)
Traffic offered ( A) Traffic offered ( A)
P( B) = C( N,A) P( B) = C( N,A)
Example:
What is t he probability of blocking
in an Erlang C syst em wit h 18
servers offered 7 Erlangs of t raffic?
N= 18 N= 18
A= 7 E A= 7 E
C( 18,7) = 0.0004 C( 18,7) = 0.0004
55
Delay in Erlang C Delay in Erlang C
Expect ed number of calls in t he queue?
( )
k
k N
k N P

=
=
0
( )
!
k
k N
k N
A
k N P
N N

=
=

0
!
k
N
k
k
A A
P k
N N

=
| |
=
|
\ .

0
!
N
P A A N
N N A N A
=

( , ) A C N A
N A

( , )
h
C N A
N A

Mean #Calls Delayed

Mean Delay over All Calls =
Arrival Rate of Calls
( , )
h
C N A
N A
=

=
Recall:
T

=
Mean Delay of Delayed Calls =
h
N A
Also:
( ) ( , )
h
T
N A
P delay T C N A e

> =
56
Comparison of Traffic Models Comparison of Traffic Models
Offered Traffic (A)
P(B)
Binomial ( BCH, m sources) Binomial ( BCH, m sources)
Poisson ( BCH, Poisson ( BCH, sources) sources)
Erlang B ( BCC, Erlang B ( BCC, sources) sources)
Engset ( BCC, m sources) Engset ( BCC, m sources)
Erlang C ( BCW, Erlang C ( BCW, sources) sources)
57
Efficiency of Large Groups Efficiency of Large Groups
Already seen t hat for same P(B), increasing servers result s in
more t han proport ional increase in t raffic carried
example 1:
(10, 4.14) 0.01 P =
and
(100, 78.2) 0.01 P =
example 2:
(32, 20.3) 0.01 P = (33, 20.1) 0.005 P =
and
example 3:
(8, 2.05) 0.001 B = (80, 57.8) 0.001 B = and
What does t his mean?
I f it s possible t o collect t oget her several diverse sources, you can
provide bett er gos at same cost , or
provide same gos at cheaper cost
58
Efficiency of Large Groups ( 2) Efficiency of Large Groups ( 2)
Two t runk groups offered 5 Erlangs each, and B(N,A)= 0.002
N
1
= ? 5 E
N
2
= ? 5 E
How many t runks t ot al?
From t raffic t ables, find B(13,5) ~ 0.002
N
1
= 13
N
2
= 13
N
t ot al
= 13 + 13 = 26 t runks
Trunk efficiency?
C
T
N
=
10(1 0.002)
0.384
26

= =
38.4% utilization 38.4% utilization
59
Efficiency of Large Groups ( 3) Efficiency of Large Groups ( 3)
One t runk group offered 10 Erlangs, and B(N,A)= 0.002
N= ? 10 E
How many t runks?
From t raffic t ables, find B(20,10) ~ 0.002 N= 20
N = 20 t runks
Trunk efficiency?
C
T
N
=
10(1 0.002)
0.499
20

= =
49.9% utilization 49.9% utilization
For same gos, we can save 6 trunks!
60
Efficiency of Large Groups ( 4) Efficiency of Large Groups ( 4)
N

B= 0.1 B= 0.1
B= 0.01 B= 0.01
B= 0.001 B= 0.001
N
A
B= 0.1 B= 0.1
B= 0.01 B= 0.01
B= 0.001 B= 0.001
61
Sensitivity to Overload Sensitivity to Overload
Consider 2 cases:
Case 1: N = 10 and B(N,A) = 0.01
B(10,4.5) ~ 0.01, so can carry 4.5 E
What if 20% overload (5.4 E)? B(10,5.4) ~ 0.03
3 t imes P(B) wit h 20% overload
Case 1: N = 30 and B(N,A) = 0.01
B(30,20.3) ~ 0.01, so can carry 20.3 E
What if 20% overload (24.5 E)? B(30,24.5) ~ 0.08
8 t imes P(B) wit h 20% overload!
Trunk Group Splintering Trunk Group Splintering
if high possibility of overloads, small groups may be bett er
62
I ncremental Traffic Carried by N I ncremental Traffic Carried by N
th th
Trunk Trunk
I f a t runk group is of size N-1, how much ext ra t raffic can it
carry if you add one ext ra t runk?
Before, can carry: T
C1
= A x [ 1-(B(N-1,A)]
Aft er, can carry: T
C2
= A x [ 1-(B(N,A)]
2 1 N C C
A T T =
| | | | ( )
1 ( , ) 1 ( 1, ) A B N A B N A =
( )
( 1, ) ( , ) A B N A B N A =
What does t his mean?
Random Hunting Random Hunting: I ncrease in t runk groups t ot al carried t raffic
aft er adding an N
t h
t runk
Sequential Hunting Sequential Hunting: Actual t raffic carried by t he N
t h
t runk in t he
group
( ) ( , )
N
A N A B N A ~
for very low blocking
63
I ncremental Traffic Carried by N I ncremental Traffic Carried by N
th th
Trunk ( 3) Trunk ( 3)
N
A
N
Fixed B( N,A)
64
Example Example
I ndividual t runks are only economic if t hey can carry 0.4 E or
more. A t runk group of size N= 10 is offered 6 E. Will all 10
t runks be economical?
( )
( 1, ) ( , )
N
A A B N A B N A =
( )
10
6 (9, 6) (10, 6) A B B =
( )
6 0.07514 0.04314 =
0.192 E = 0.4 E <
At least the 10 At least the 10
th th
trunk is not trunk is not economical economical