REALTORS CONFIDENCE INDEX

Report and Market Outlook November 2012 Edition

Based on Data Collected November 26 through November 30, 2012

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Research Department Lawrence Yun, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist

Table of Contents
SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................................. 3 Executive Summary--Current Conditions: Major Indicators ................................................................... 3 Market Outlook ......................................................................................................................................... 6 I. Market Conditions .................................................................................................................................... 8 REALTORS Confidence Index Is Up in November .............................................................................. 8 Seventy three Percent of REALTORS Reported Constant or Higher Prices on Recent Transactions Compared to a Year Ago .......................................................................................................................... 9 Eighty-five Percent of Responding REALTORS Expect Constant or Higher Residential Prices in the Next 12 Months....................................................................................................................................... 10 Thirty-Two Percent of Houses Sold in One Month ................................................................................ 11 Median Days on Market at 70 Days........................................................................................................ 12 II. Buyer and Seller Characteristics ............................................................................................................ 15 Cash Sales: 30 Percent of Residential Sales .......................................................................................... 15 Buyers Due to Relocation/Job Changes: 15 Percent of Residential Market ........................................... 16 Residential Sales to Investors: 19 Percent of Residential Market .......................................................... 17 Second Home Purchases: 12 Percent of Residential Market .................................................................. 18 International Transactions: Two Percent of Residential Market ............................................................. 18 Thirty-seven Percent of Sales with Mortgages Had Down Payments of 20 Percent or More ............... 19 Fifty-four Percent of Responding REALTORS Report Rising Rents for Residential Properties ........ 19 III. Current Issues........................................................................................................................................ 20 Tight Credit Conditions and Slow Lending Process ............................................................................... 20 AppraisalsA Continuing Problem ....................................................................................................... 21 IV. Comments: Straight from the REALTORS ....................................................................................... 22 V. NAR Recent Articles ............................................................................................................................. 24 Small Town and Big City Job Recovery................................................................................................. 24 Neighborhood Choice ............................................................................................................................. 27 Overview of Foot Traffic Based on SentriLock...................................................................................... 28

Appendix. RCI Historical Data..29

SUMMARY
Jed Smith and Gay Cororaton The REALTORS Confidence Index (RCI) report provides monthly information pertaining to expectations about overall market conditions, buyer/seller traffic, price, buyer profiles, and issues affecting real estate. Collection of this data began in January 2008 to supplement information on existing home sales trends and provide timely feedback from REALTORS on the real estate market (see the Data Appendix of this Report for the historical series). The November edition is based on responses of about 3,700 REALTORS to a survey conducted during November 26 through November 30, 2012.1 All real estate is local: conditions in specific markets may vary from the overall national trends presented in this report. Executive Summary--Current Conditions: Major Indicators The current confidence index for single family homes held steady at 53, indicating that the market appears to have stabilized. Activity is significantly up from its level of 30 in the same period last year. An index of 50 means moderate expectations. The index for townhouses and condominiums remains below 50, below moderate expecations but higher than in the recent past (see the Data Appendix for the historical series).

The REALTORS Confidence Index Current Conditions for Single Family Homes held steady at 53 in November, unchanged from October but significantly up from last years level of 32. An index above 50 indicates above moderate expectations.

Activity is generally better compared to a year ago with generally more REALTORS holding above moderate expectations about both current conditions and the outlook for the next 6 months. The majority of REALTORS continued to report rising home prices and declining days on the market. However, REALTORS reported that the market remains hampered by a demanding and rigid loan qualification process that has made mortgage underwriting a nightmare and the toughest hurdle. This has led to cash buyers and investors easing out first time buyers using mortgage financing. Low inventory persists, and REALTORS have reported homes selling above the list price. Policy uncertainties on a variety of economic and and tax issues, as well as tepid job growth , continue to dampen the market. Hurricane Sandy also caused a temporary market slowdown in the affected areas.

There were 3,766 respondents to the November survey, which was sent to approximately 50,000 REALTORS.

REALTORS Confidence Index--Nov 2012 Current Conditions

80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 200801 200804 200807 200810 200901 200904 200907 200910 201001 201004 201007 201010 201101 201104 201107 201110 201201 201204 201207 201210 SF TH Condo

SF: 53 TH: 37 Condo 31

Demand continutes to outstrip supply. The buyer traffic index is at 53, while the seller traffic index is essentially unchanged at 37 from a peak of 42 last year. Buyer traffic dipped slightly, reflecting in part the seasonal slowdown and possibly a wait-and -see stance as buyers and sellers await clearer direction with regard to measures to avert the fiscal cliff. Inventory has been generally tight, as Demand outstrips supply: REALTORS reported that sellers continue to the Traffic Buyers Index is at hold back, waiting for prices to rise further or 53 while the Sellers Traffic for better valued appraisals. REALTORS reported numerous cases of multibidding, with Index is at 37. An index of investors competing against first time home 50 indicates moderate buyers. REALTORS have reported that conditions . bank-owned properties go under contract within 7-10 days, that there are 8-10 offers for houses that are turn-key ready, and that 85% of all REO properties have multiple offers.
Indexes of Buyer and Seller Traffic -- Nov 2012
60.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0

Buyer: 53 Seller : 37

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200801

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Buyer Traffic Index

Seller Traffic Index

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The tight inventory of homes for sale has strengthened prices and shortened listing time. There are reports that REO properties are selling over the list price. About 73 percent of REALTORS reported constant or increasing prices compared to their average home transaction a year ago.

About 73% of REALTORS expect constant or increasing prices. The median days on the market is at 70 days.

Percentage of Respondents Reporting Constant or Higher Prices Today Compared to a Year Ago
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 54% 58% 62% 64% 64% 69% 71% 73% 73%

The median days on the market slightly fell to 70 days in November (70 in October) and is below last years 98 days.

Median Days on the Market for All Sales

120 100 80 60 40 20 0 96 97 98 92 101 96 98 99 99 97 91 83 72 70 69 70 70 71 70

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Source: NAR, RCI Survey

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Market Outlook REALTORS generally are upbeat about the outlook for the next 6 months. The single family sales index rose to 59 and is up compared to October (58) and a year ago (36) The six-Month Outlook Confidence Index for townhouses and condos also improved although the expectation is somewhat lower.

REALTORS remain generally optimistic for the next 6 months. The REALTORS Confidence Index Six Month Outlook for Single Family Homes rose to 59 in November.

REALTORS Confidence Index--Nov 2012 Six-Month Outlook

70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0

SF: 59 TH: 41 Condo 36

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SF

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Condo

NARs latest economic projection is for continued increases in residential home sales along with continued price improvement (although sales and price trends will vary from market to market). Existing home sales are projected to expand to 4.6 million in 2012 ( 5 million in 2013). The median price for existing home sales is forecasted at $176,100 in 2012 ($185,200 in 2013). Shadow inventory is still high, but it is about 1 million fewer homes than two years ago and is anticipated to steadily diminish over time. Decreases in months of inventory of homes for sale and a decline in percentages of existing home sales that are distressed are projected to lead to continued market improvement.

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Existing Home Sales: Actual and Forecast Outlook Projects Continued Recovery
8000000 7000000 6000000 5000000 4000000 3000000 Jan/00 Aug/00 Mar/01 Oct/01 May/02 Dec/02 Jul/03 Feb/04 Sep/04 Apr/05 Nov/05 Jun/06 Jan/07 Aug/07 Mar/08 Oct/08 May/09 Dec/09 Jul/10 Feb/11 Sep/11 Apr/12 Nov/12 Jun/13
Twelve Month Roll Forecast

2012 Forecast: 4.62 Mil 2013 Forecast: 5.05 Mil

Median Prices by Month, Not Statistically Adjusted Outlook Projects Improvement

250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0

2012Forecast: $176,100

The forecast is based on an economy expected to grow at 2.1 percent in 2012 (2.5 percent in 2013) and with 30-year mortgage rates at 3.7 percent (4.0 percent in 2013) . What Does This Mean For REALTORS? The real estate market continues to recover both in terms of sales and price. Continued restrictive mortgage availability with tight underwriting standards is a problem, but REALTORS report that loans are frequently available at smaller banks and credit unions. Making sure that appraisers are qualified and that appropriate comps are used are important. Finally, tight inventories are making markets increasingly competitive.

Jan/00 Aug/00 Mar/01 Oct/01 May/02 Dec/02 Jul/03 Feb/04 Sep/04 Apr/05 Nov/05 Jun/06 Jan/07 Aug/07 Mar/08 Oct/08 May/09 Dec/09 Jul/10 Feb/11 Sep/11 Apr/12 Dec/12 Jul/13
Median Price Forecast

I. Market Conditions
REALTORS Confidence Index Is Up in November The current confidence index is essentially unchanged for single-family homes at 53, indicating no major change in confidence compared to October levels and a level of confidence that is significantly up from the same period last year (32). The current conditions indexes for townhouses and condominiums continue to increase. Across all property types, REALTORS are generally upbeat for the next 6 months. REALTORS Confidence Index--Nov 2012 Current and Six Month Outlook: Single Family Properties
70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0

Current: 53 Outlook: 59

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Current Conditions

6-Month Outlook

REALTORS Confidence Index--Nov 2012 Current and Six Month Outlook: Townhouse Properties
50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0

Current: 37 Outlook: 41

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Current Conditions

6-Month Outlook

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REALTORS Confidence Index--Nov 2012 Current and Six Month Outlook: Condo Properties
40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 200801 200804 200807 200810 200901 200904 200907 200910 201001

Current: 31 Outlook: 36

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Current Conditions

6-Month Outlook

Seventy three Percent of REALTORS Reported Constant or Higher Prices on Recent Transactions Compared to a Year Ago Home prices continue to firm up as demand for existing home sales is reported to be increasing faster than the supply of available homes. About 31 percent of REALTORS reported constant home prices while 42 percent reported rising prices. As the graph below shows, there are increasingly more REALTORS reporting rising prices compared to year ago level since the March 2012 survey. Many REALTORS noted a significant increase in multibidding on properties, especially for lower priced and ready- to-move- in houses .

Prices on Recent Transactions Relative to a Year Ago

40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9% 10% 31% 24% 9% 11% 7%

Mar-12 Aug-12

Apr-12 Sep-12

May-12 Oct-12

Jun-12 Nov-12

Jul-12

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Eighty-five Percent of Responding REALTORS Expect Constant or Higher Residential Prices in the Next 12 Months Eighty-five percent of respondents reported the expectation of constant or higher prices in the next year. Many REALTORS noted a significant increase in multibidding on properties.The median expected price change in the next 12 months is 3.1 percent. REALTORS Price Expectations for Next 12 Months Nov 2012 RCI Survey
100% 85% expect constant/higher prices in next 12 months 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 200810 200812 200902 200904 200906 200908 200910 200912 201002 201004 201006 201008 201010 201012 201102 201104 201106 201108 201110 201112 201202 201204 201206 201208 201210 Constant/Rising Prices Falling Prices

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Thirty-Two Percent of Houses Sold in One Month Multiple offers have led to shorter time on the market for a property to sell. Approximately a third of REALTORS noted that recently sold properties were on the market for less than a month when sold, and 57 percent were sold within 3 months. The percentage of REALTORS reporting that the house sold had been on the market for 6 months or more is down to 20 percent from 28 percent a year ago.

Time On Market When Sold

35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% <1 mo 1-2 mo 2-3 mo 3-4 mo 4-5 mo 5-6 mo 6-9 mo 9-12 mo >=12 mo Apr-12 May-12 June-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 12-Sep 12-Oct 12-Nov Data shown are for Nov 2012. 15% 10% 10% 7% 6% 8% 5% 8% 32%

% of closed sales 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

On Market 6 Months or More

Nov '12: 20%

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Median Days on Market at 70 Days The median days on market in November was 70 days, down from 98 days a year ago. Tight inventory and multibidding is shortening the days on the market. Although the short sale process is still viewed as protracted, short sales were at a median 90 days on market , significantly down in the same period last year (119 days). Foreclosures were at 51 median days on market down from a year ago (74 days) .

Median Days on Market

200 150 100 50 0

Nov'12: Shortsale: 90; Foreclosed: 51; Not distressed: 71

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All Source: NAR, RCI Survey

Short Sales

Foreclosed

Not distressed

Distressed Sales Account for 22 Percent of Sales About 22 percent of respondents reported selling distressed property (foreclosed and short sales), down substantially from what had been the case a year or two ago. REALTORS reported strong demand for REOs from investors who typically pay cash and who are willing to renovate the properties and turn them into rentals. Cash sales accounted for roughly 46 percent of distressed sales (41 percent in October 2012).

Percent of Respondents Reporting Distressed Sales

60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%

Nov'12: Foreclosed: 12% Shortsale: 10%

Foreclosed As % of Sales

Short Sale As % of Sales

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Distressed Real EstateBelow Market Prices Distressed properties typically sell below the market price of similar property in nondistressed condition. The level of discount fluctuates depending on sales location, type of property, and property condition. Foreclosed property sold on the average at a 20 percent discount, while shortsale properties sold at a 16 percent average discount.

Mean Percentage Price Discount of Distressed Sales

25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 200902 200904 200906 200908 200910 200912 201002 201004 201006 201008 201010 201012 201102 201104 201106 201108 201110 201112 201202 201204 201206 201208 Foreclosed Shortsale

Nov'12: Foreclosed: 20%; Shortsale : 16%

Property Condition Affects the Selling Price of Distressed Properties The discount to market experienced by distressed property is affected by the propertys physical condition. Well maintained properties tend to sell at a lower discount than is the case for properties in poor condition. The un-weighted average price discounts to market are presented for the current survey month as well as the 12 month period from December 2011 through November 2012. REALTOR respondents reported price discounts for distressed houses with above average condition at about 13 15 percent, and price discounts of 34-38 percent for the properties in the poorest condition.

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Percent Price Discount by Property Condition (%) Unweighted Average for Dec 2011 to Nov 2012
40.0 26.9 20.0 15.0 13.5 21.6 15.9 13.2 16.6 23.0 38.1 34.1

0.0 1-Above average 2-Average 3-Below average 4-Well below 5-Bottom 1% ave

Foreclosed

Shortsale

Mean Percent Below Market Value Nov 2012 RCI Survey House Condition 1-Above average 2-Average 3-Below average 4-Well below ave 5-Bottom 1% Foreclosure 17.3 16.6 22.9 28.6 12.1 Short Sale 11.9 15.6 19.3 17.4 5.7

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II. Buyer and Seller Characteristics

Cash Sales: 30 Percent of Residential Sales Approximately 30 percent of REALTORS who made a sale reported cash sales in November (29 percent in October) . REALTORS reported that cash buyers are primarily investors and international buyers, edging out first time home buyers needing to secure a mortgage. Approximately 9 percent of first-time homebuyers paid cash, compared to 70 percent of investors who paid cash.

Cash Sales as Percent of Market

40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 200810 200812 200902 200904 200906 200908 200910 200912 201002 201004 201006 201008 201010 201012 201102 201104 201106 201108 201110 201112 201202 201204 201206 201208 201210

Nov '12: 30%

Percent of Cash Sales- Nov 2012

80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 70% 52% 70% 46% 22% 9%

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First Time Buyers: 30 Percent of Residential Buyers Approximately 30 percent of responding REALTORS reported making a sale to first time home buyers (31 percent in October). Normally first time buyers are in the neighborhood of 40 percent of total residential sales according to NARs Profile of Home Buyers and Seller. Most first time buyers obtain a mortgage: About 9 percent of REALTORS who made a first time home buyer sale reported cash sales (10 percent in October). The decrease in first time buyers from the typical 40 percent share in part reflects the difficulty of securing mortgage financing, delays with distressed sales, and purchases of lower priced properties by investors. REALTORS have noted that that investors offering all-cash sales to sellers have crowded out first-time buyers in some cases, particularly in the case of distressed properties.

First Time Buyers as Percent of Market

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 200810 200812 200902 200904 200906 200908 200910 200912 201002 201004 201006 201008 201010 201012 201102 201104 201106 201108 201110 201112 201202 201204 201206 201208 201210

Nov '12: 30%

Buyers Due to Relocation/Job Changes: 15 Percent of Residential Market REALTORS reported that 15 percent of residential sales were to buyers for relocation purposes, i.e., a job move, retirement, etc. (13 percent in October). About 22 percent of REALTORS who made a sale to a relocation buyer reported a cash sale (17 percent in October).

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Relocation Buyers as Percent of Market

18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%

Nov '12: 15%

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Residential Sales to Investors: 19 Percent of Residential Market REALTORS reported that investors accounted for 19 percent of total residential sales in November (20 percent in October). Approximately 70 percent of respondents who reported a sale to an investor reported a cash sale (69 percent in October ). Investors are reported to be converting the properties into rentals.

Sales to Investors as Percent of Market

30%

Nov '12: 19%

25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 200810 200812 200902 200904 200906 200908 200910 200912 201002 201004 201006 201008 201010 201012 201102 201104 201106 201108 201110 201112 201202 201204 201206 201208 201210

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Second Home Purchases: 12 Percent of Residential Market Second home sales accounted for 12 percent of responses (relatively unchanged since August). Approximately 52 percent of second home sales were for cash (47 percent in October).

Second Home Buyers as Percent of Market

16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 201009 201010 201011 201012 201101 201102 201103 201104 201105 201106 201107 201108 201109 201110 201111 201112 201201 201202 201203 201204 201205 201206 201207 201208 201209 201210 201211

Nov '12: 12%

International Transactions: Two Percent of Residential Market Approximately 1.6 percent of REALTORS reported sales of U.S. residential real estate to foreigners not residing in the U.S (1.9% in October). Approximately 70 percent of respondents who reported transactions with international clients reported cash sales (67 percent in October). REALTORS reported about lots of cash investors from China and Canada.

Percent of Sales to International Clients

4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 201003 201004 201005 201006 201007 201008 201009 201010 201011 201012 201101 201102 201103 201104 201105 201106 201107 201108 201109 201110 201111 201112 201201 201202 201203 201204 201205 201206 201207 201208 201209 201210 201211

Nov '12: 1.6%

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Thirty-seven Percent of Sales with Mortgages Had Down Payments of 20 Percent or More Approximately 37 percent of mortage sales involved a down payment of 20 percent or more (compared to 36 percent in October ). Down payments of 11-19 percent were at 5 percent. The trend has remained essentially unchanged since last year, in part reflecting credit conditions that have been generally reported as tight , stringent, and difficult.

Percent of Sales by Downpayment Levels

40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 201104 201105 201106 201107 201108 201109 201110 201111

Nov '12: At least 20% D/P: 37%

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11-19%

>=20%

Fifty-four Percent of Responding REALTORS Report Rising Rents for Residential Properties About 54 percent of responding REALTORS reported higher residential rents compared to a year ago and in October (51 percent ) . Rising rental costs make homeownership more attractive especially at a time when mortages are at their lowest and owning has never been so affordable.

Percent of REALTORS Reporting Changing Rent Levels as Compared to 12 Months Ago

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 201012 201101 201102 201103 201104 201105 201106 201107 201108 201109 201110 201111 201112 201201 201202 201203 201204 201205 201206 201207 201208 201209 201210 201211 Higher Rents Lower Rents Constant rents

Nov '12: Rising rent: 54%

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III. Current Issues

Tight Credit Conditions and Slow Lending Process One of the most frequent comments by REALTORS was a concern over unreasonably tight credit conditions. Respondents indicated that credit conditions continue to be too tight, that lenders are taking too long in approving an application, and that information and documentation required by lenders is excessive. Respondents expressed frustration that some financial institutions appear to lend only to individuals with the highest levels of credit scores. There appears to be an unnecessarily high level of risk aversion. In the 2001-04 time framea time of normal residential real estate markets before the Great Recession-approximately 40 percent of Fannie Maes and Freddie Macs loans went to applicants with credit scores above 740. In contrast, REALTORS responding to the RCI survey indicated that over 50 percent of loans went to borrowers with credit scores above 740 , including Fannie, Freddie, and other lenders. In the case of Fannie and Freddiewhich are now a smaller part of the marketin 2011 approximately 75 percent of loans had credit scores of 740 and above. Estimates by NAR economists have indicated that an additional 500,000 to 700,000 additional sales could be made if credit conditions returned to normal. This increased level of sales activity could generate an additional 250-350 thousand additional jobs on an annual basis, because existing home sales generate jobs across a wide spectrum of the economyi.e., attorneys, painters, plumbers, landscapers, title companies, furniture manufacturers, etc. These are jobs that could be generated at no cost and almost immediately.

NAR-RCI Survey Credit Scores

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% lt 620 RCI-Feb'12 RCI-Jul'12 620 - 659 RCI-Mar'12 RCI-Aug'12 660-699 RCI-Apr'12 RCI-Sep'12 700-739 RCI-May'12 RCI-0ct'12 740+ RCI-Jun'12 RCI-Nov'12

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FICO Scores: Recent Scores in 2012 vs. 75% 74% Scores in 2005
49% 60% 57% 58% 54% 53% 53% 57% 57% 53% 42% 44%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1% 1%

1%

3% 1%

2%

0%

1%

5%

4%

lt620(RCI)

740+(RCI)

lt620(Fannie/Freddie)

740+(Fannie/Freddie)

The meaning for REALTORS is clear: In many cases lenders are not making loans to potential buyers with less than perfect credit scores. A potential home buyer who is rejected by one bank or financial institution should try, try, try again at a different financial institution. Rejection of a loan application may be more indicative of the financial state of the lending institution than of the applicants credit worthiness. There are a variety of potential lending sources in addition to large banks and mortgage brokers. For example, a number of REALTORS noted that regional and community banks and credit unions could be good potential alternative sources of mortgages. AppraisalsA Continuing Problem Appraisals continued to be a problem in moving transactions to closure. Many REALTORS continue to report that appraisal values are not keeping pace with the appreciation in market values. In some cases REALTORS reported that appraisers were using foreclosures as compswhich they clearly are not. REALTORS also reported encounters with out-of-town appraisers who have little knowledge of the neighborhood/local conditions. REALTORS also expressed frustration at the slow turn around time from appraisers and appraisal requirements that are an uncessary expense on the buyer. Thirty-four percent of REALTORS reported having had a problem with an appraisal in the past 3 months (same as in September). Approximately 10 percent of the respondents reported that appraisal problems led to contract cancellation; about 10 percent reported a delay as a result of an appraisal problem, and almost 15 percent reported that the appraisal problems led to lower prices.

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Percent of REALTORS Reporting Appraisal Problems in Past 3 Months

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 201003 201004 201005 201006 201007 201008 201009 201010 201011 201012 201101 201102 201103 201104 201105 201106 201107 201108 201109 201110 201111 201112 201201 201202 201203 201204 201205 201206 201207 201208 201209 201210 201211 Contract Cancelled Contract Delayed Negotiated to Lower Price

Nov '12: 34%

IV. Comments: Straight from the REALTORS

Jed Smith, Managing Director, Quantitative Research REALTORS mentioned low inventories of available homes for sale, tight financing conditions, appraisal issues, and uncertain economic conditions as impacting the housing markets. 1. Low Inventory/multiple bidding Inventory remains very tight, with multi-bidding becoming the norm, especially for wellpriced homes. Investors, who typically pay cash, almost certainly win against first-time buyers. REOs do not appear to be coming sufficiently to meet demand, while sellers are also waiting for prices to pick up further. There are reports of homes selling above list prices. The process has been distressing with REALTORS calling for more accountability and transparency in the process. Here is what REALTORS are saying:
8-10 offers per house if they are turn key ready 85% of our listings are REO and have multiple offers. Now we are seeing the result of the banks being required to work with Sellers, and our shortsale inventory is far surpassing the REO listings. A lot of multiple offers. A lot of cash buyer competition. Equity sales are selling above market and above appraised values. Trends remind me of real estate 6-7 years ago. Multi-offers for cash, investors trying to chase yields of 6% are everywhere! Multiple offers on 98% of my properties I list for sale in the last 6 months My REO inventory is down 70% since December 2010. I think we are through the worst of the REO mess but the flow will pick up again in the 2nd quarter of 2013 Most listings are short sales; most sales are REO's and by investors. REO agent accountability is very low there should be a way to prove that your offer was presented to the seller..PROOF of presentation on all Short sales and REO's 22

2. Tight Financing/credit Access to financing remains tight, benefting cash buyers. The process remains protracted, causing delayed closings and risking cancellations. There are reports that banks are asking for higher credit scores, with a report of a bank rejecting a score of as high as 800. There is also lack of assistance for helping current homeowners who are slightly delinquent to modify keep their homes. Here is what REALTORS are saying:
Financing taking too long (underwriting/processing with a radical amount of multiple review creating a back log) which results in confusion in the final days leading up to closing. Lenders are not making closing dates. 45-60 days are being given per contract and we are seeing as much as a 2 month delay in closings. The mortgage industry is continuing to be in a difficult process. They are taking the process to the extreme and even offending strong buyers with credit scores in the 800's. 35% of my buyers contracts have been terminated due to lenders and underwriters changing qualifications in the process, and buyers losing money for inspections and appraisals Lender are being more aggressive (in a good way) working with Short Sales. They need to be more aggressive with Loan Modification.

3. Appraisal issues The most common reports are about out-of- area appraisers who have poor knowledge of local conditions. Another issue is the demand for unusual repairs by some appraisers. Appraisals remain a problem. Third party situation creates an environment where persons not
familiar with the sales or market are doing the appraisal under valuing the property. I've had contracts canceled, delayed and renegotiated because of low appraisals. Appraisal problems have not been with price but comments and asking for unusual repairs

4. Weak economy and policy uncertainty Although the job market is improving, the slow pace of job creation and job insecurity keeps buyers on the sidelines, especially since banks typically require some employment track record. Concerns about possible tax measures such as changes to mortgage interest deduction appears to be causing buyers to just wait and see for now.
People can't buy homes unless they have a job and have been employed for 2+ years, so market outlook will be weak until 2 years after stronger job market.

there does not seem to be confidence in the over all economy on the part of buyers. They do not want to make big decisions now.

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V. NAR Recent Articles

Small Town and Big City Job Recovery Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist The nations job market is slowly recovering. Slowly is the proper description when the one year percentage gain to October has been only 1.5 percent. However, some small-sized cities are moving at a very fast clip. Here are some examples of top flyers with at least four percent growth from one year ago. For some like Elkhart-Goshen it is only a recovery after a deep downturn and the market is still in a hole. For others like Lafayette, something amazing is going on as the employment has hit an all-time local high. And does anyone know what is going on in Pascagoula, where there are some strange ups and downs?

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But what about big cities? Because of the already sizable population, it is much more difficult to attain very high percentage gains as seen for some small towns. The New York metro region added 128,000 net new jobs in the past 12 months, yet matches only the national average growth rate of 1.5 percent. Below is the breakdown of job market conditions among those citiessuburbs that have at least 1.5 million jobs already. For most major cities, recent job gains are only making up for the losses that had occurred during the deep recession a few years ago. Washington, D.C. is one exception because it did not have a recession due to government stimulus money. But outside of the D.C. Beltway, there are two cities which are now setting new highs: Dallas and Houston. The intrastate jobs rivalry also implies why the Texans are a bit happier than the Cowboys.

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Neighborhood Choice Jessica Lautz, Survey Research Manager For the past several years, the top factor influencing where a buyer purchased a home was the quality of the neighborhood. Convenience to work was the second most significant factor with just under half of buyers citing its importance. Affordability of homes was also very important, with 39 percent citing it as a factor in their neighborhood choice. By family type there are variations in the importance of neighborhood factors. Single females place a higher priority on convenience to friends and family than other family types. Both single males and single females value affordability of homes. Married couples and those with children in the home place more priority on the quality and convenience to schools than other buyers. Unmarried couples and single males place a higher value on convenience to entertainment and leisure activities.

Data from the 2012 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

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Overview of Foot Traffic Based on SentriLock Ken Fears, Manager, Regional Economics & Housing Finance Every month SentriLock, LLC. provides NAR Research with data on the number of showings. Foot traffic has a strong correlation with future contracts and home sales, so it can be viewed as a peek ahead at sales trends two to three months into the future. In the latest reading, the diffusion index for foot traffic rose for the second consecutive month, reaching 66.3, up from 61.7 in October. Novembers rise in the diffusion index indicates that more than half of the markets in this panel had stronger foot traffic in November of 2012 than the same month a year earlier. This reading does not suggest how much of an increase in traffic there was, just that the increase was broadly spread across the US. Foot traffic had seesawed for several months. However, it is worth noting that in the summer of 2011, traffic rose sharply relative to a year earlier, so the period of plateau in the summer of 2012 reflects a comparison to strong increases a year earlier. Furthermore, tight inventories in the West are creating a drag on foot traffic as REALTORS have fewer properties to show their clients. Still, record low mortgage rates along with stable employment growth are driving a robust recovery in buyer confidence. A restoration of traditional, sound underwriting would help to extend credit to a broader section of the market, expanding this trend and further shoring up the recovery.

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Appendix. RCI Historical Data

REALTORS Confidence Index Survey National Association of REALTORS As of November 2012

REALTORS Confidence Index (RCI)

Traffic Index

Year/Month 200801 200802 200803 200804 200805 200806 200807 200808 200809 200810 200811 200812 200901 200902 200903 200904 200905 200906 200907 200908 200909 200910 200911 200912 201001 201002 201003 201004 201005 201006 201007 201008 201009 201010 201011 201012 201101 201102 201103 201104 201105 201106 201107 201108 201109 201110 201111 201112 201201 201202 201203 201204 201205 201206 201207 201208 201209 201210 201211

Single Family Townhouse Condominium Current 6-Month Current 6-Month Current 6-Month Conditions Outlook Conditions Outlook Conditions Outlook 27 38 16 23 14 19 27 38 17 24 15 21 29 39 19 25 15 21 28 37 19 25 16 22 31 38 21 26 17 23 29 37 20 23 18 21 29 33 20 22 17 19 26 33 18 22 15 20 25 28 16 19 14 16 22 29 14 19 12 17 21 31 13 20 12 17 19 28 11 17 10 14 23 34 13 20 11 18 25 35 14 22 12 18 28 40 15 23 12 19 33 45 18 27 14 22 34 44 20 27 16 23 35 43 18 24 14 19 34 40 18 22 14 18 38 42 21 24 16 20 35 41 19 22 15 19 34 39 17 22 13 17 35 41 19 23 15 18 33 42 15 23 13 19 36 43 18 24 14 18 35 43 18 23 14 19 36 42 18 22 14 18 35 38 19 22 14 17 36 40 19 22 17 19 27 29 14 14 11 12 24 27 11 13 10 11 23 26 12 13 10 11 21 25 12 15 9 11 23 26 9 13 8 11 23 28 11 15 10 13 25 32 13 18 10 15 27 37 13 19 10 15 30 37 14 19 12 17 32 39 17 22 14 18 32 39 16 20 14 17 33 38 18 22 15 18 31 34 16 19 14 16 31 33 17 19 14 17 31 32 17 18 14 15 29 30 17 18 14 15 30 32 18 20 14 16 30 36 19 22 15 18 32 40 19 24 14 19 37 46 23 29 18 23 43 52 26 32 21 27 49 57 30 36 25 31 50 55 31 36 25 30 57 62 36 41 29 34 58 61 38 42 31 36 54 56 35 38 29 32 54 56 35 38 30 34 53 56 36 39 29 33 53 58 36 41 31 36 53 59 36 41 31 36

Buyer Traffic

Seller Traffic

Price Expectation for Next 12 Months As % of REALTORS Who Expect Constant/Rising Prices

Rent Trends As % of REALTORS Who Expect Rising Rents

Median Days on the Market

31 31 35 30 34 31 31 33 28 27 26 25 32 36 39 44 44 43 41 45 41 39 38 37 41 41 42 41 37 27 26 24 23 23 25 27 30 33 37 37 37 33 34 32 30 33 33 36 44 51 55 55 55 54 54 55 53 54 53

58 57 56 56 55 57 54 52 48 46 42 46 45 46 48 48 48 46 47 47 47 44 43 43 44 46 47 44 43 42 40 40 41 38 37 36 37 41 41 42 42 41 40 38 36 36 35 37 39 40 41 41 41 40 40 40 38 37 37

48% 44% 40% 45% 46% 57% 65% 65% 64% 64% 72% 70% 69% 70% 67% 66% 65% 65% 68% 67% 58% 55% 53% 49% 50% 52% 59% 56% 60% 58% 59% 59% 54% 55% 54% 53% 58% 57% 62% 67% 73% 78% 81% 83% 86% 85% 87% 88% 87% 85%

39% 42% 44% 46% 48% 55% 52% 49% 50% 47% 51% 47% 49% 47% 51% 53% 52% 54% 54% 57% 55% 57% 51% 54%

96 97 98 92 101 96 98 99 99 97 91 83 72 70 69 70 70 71 70

/1 In the RCI Survey,a sale refers to the REALTOR's last closed or completed sale/transaction for the reference month. Prepared by the Research Division. For querries, please contact the Research Division c/o Dr. Jed Smith, Manager, Quantitative Research.

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REALTORS Confidence Index Survey National Association of REALTORS *

As of November 2012

Distressed Sales /1 Total Short Sale Distressed As % of Sales As % Sales of All Sales Mean Price Discount of Foreclosed Property Sales Mean Price Discount of Shortsale Property Sales

Financing

Type of Buyer As % of All Buyers /1

Appraisal Issues

Foreclosed As % of Sales Year/Month 200801 200802 200803 200804 200805 200806 200807 200808 200809 200810 200811 200812 200901 200902 200903 200904 200905 200906 200907 200908 200909 200910 200911 200912 201001 201002 201003 201004 201005 201006 201007 201008 201009 201010 201011 201012 201101 201102 201103 201104 201105 201106 201107 201108 201109 201110 201111 201112 201201 201202 201203 201204 201205 201206 201207 201208 201209 201210 201211

All Cash % of Mortgage Sales Sales as % of with at least 20 % All Sales Downpayment

Firsttime Buyer

Investor

As % of Second International REALTORS Facing home Relocation Buyer Appraisal Issues

23% 25% 27% 28% 30% 31% 29% 21% 20% 20% 18% 19% 18% 21% 22% 24% 23% 24% 21% 19% 17% 22% 22% 23% 23% 22% 24% 24% 26% 27% 24% 20% 18% 17% 19% 18% 17% 19% 19% 22% 20% 18% 17% 15% 13% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12%

11% 12% 13% 13% 18% 18% 17% 12% 11% 11% 12% 10% 12% 12% 10% 14% 12% 12% 12% 12% 15% 10% 12% 12% 11% 11% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 10% 13% 13% 14% 11% 11% 10% 12% 12% 10% 11% 12% 10%

34% 37% 40% 41% 48% 49% 45% 33% 31% 31% 31% 29% 30% 33% 32% 38% 35% 35% 33% 31% 32% 32% 34% 35% 34% 33% 36% 37% 39% 40% 37% 31% 30% 29% 31% 30% 28% 29% 32% 35% 34% 29% 28% 25% 25% 24% 22% 24% 24% 22%

19% 23% 14% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 19% 21% 18% 15% 22% 21% 21% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 22% 20% 20% 22% 22% 19% 20% 21% 20% 21% 20% 22% 20% 19% 22% 21% 22% 19% 21% 18% 18% 17% 19% 21% 20% 20%

19% 21% 14% 17% 15% 17% 16% 17% 18% 16% 15% 17% 19% 19% 19% 14% 12% 12% 12% 15% 14% 17% 16% 15% 15% 11% 17% 17% 16% 15% 16% 15% 14% 14% 13% 19% 16% 16% 14% 14% 15% 15% 13% 13% 14% 16%

15% 24% 16% 18% 30% 30% 20% 12% 13% 19% 20% 21% 20% 19% 22% 26% 27% 27% 26% 25% 24% 30% 28% 29% 29% 31% 29% 32% 33% 35% 31% 30% 29% 29% 29% 30% 29% 28% 31% 31% 33% 32% 29% 28% 29% 27% 27% 28% 29% 30%

34% 32% 37% 36% 34% 35% 34% 34% 36% 35% 32% 34% 33% 37% 36% 34% 37% 35% 36% 37%

32% 27% 30% 38% 51% 53% 40% 47% 45% 31% 46% 49% 50% 51% 43% 40% 42% 44% 49% 46% 43% 38% 31% 32% 32% 32% 33% 29% 34% 33% 36% 36% 31% 32% 32% 32% 34% 35% 31% 33% 32% 33% 35% 34% 32% 34% 31% 32% 31% 30%

14% 20% 14% 14% 25% 24% 18% 14% 14% 9% 12% 13% 14% 12% 15% 17% 19% 19% 15% 14% 13% 19% 21% 18% 19% 19% 20% 23% 19% 22% 20% 19% 19% 18% 22% 19% 18% 19% 21% 23% 23% 21% 20% 17% 19% 16% 18% 18% 20% 19%

11% 12% 10% 13% 10% 14% 13% 13% 13% 14% 13% 11% 12% 12% 10% 13% 13% 12% 11% 12% 11% 12% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12%

13% 14% 14% 15% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14% 13% 11% 12% 13% 15% 15% 15% 16% 14% 13% 15%

3% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%

39% 39% 39% 42% 42% 39% 41% 40% 39% 35% 35% 33% 34% 35% 35% 32% 32% 33% 31% 35% 36% 34% 32% 30% 31% 32% 33% 35% 34% 36% 35% 34% 34%

/1 In the RCI Survey,a sale refers to the REALTOR's last closed or completed sale/transaction for the reference month. Prepared by the Research Division. For querries, please contact the Research Division c/o Dr. Jed Smith, Manager, Quantitative Research.

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