The Magazine For Reseach and Innofation (Fall 2002)

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Fall 2002
Pictures of the Future

T H E M A G A Z I N E F O R R E S E A R C H A N D I N N O VAT I O N
INDUSTRY INTERNET ROBOTS
Digital Factories Networks of the Future Machines with Emotions
PICTURES OF THE FUTURE
Guest Editorial
Contents
Cycles of innovation in information technology have become so short that the classic distinction between research and development is no longer valid. Today, the old model in which basic research ultimately led to industrial implementation via a large number of development stages in various organizations is considered far too time-consuming. This outmoded production-line principle needs to be replaced with dynamic innovation networks that integrate publicly financed basic research, application development and product transfer in so-called Centers of Excellence.
Streamlining Research in Dynamic Innovation Networks
Its also a fact that specialized centers work faster and are therefore more successful in the competitive world of research. One good example of this is the German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI), which is responsible for the entire innovation spectrum in this area. Since its foundation in 1988, it has been working closely with Corporate Technology at Siemens AG. To speed up the pace of innovation, DFKI runs simultaneous projects in the areas of basic research, applied R&D and product transfer all under one roof. The projects are carried out by the same scientists working together in different teams. This approach is especially effective when it comes to developing, for example, the next Internet generation (see the article on the Thinking Web on page 41).
INDUSTRY
Digital Factories
6 9 13 16 19 23 25 27
Scenario 2010: The Magic of Virtuality Digital Production: Factory in a Computer Interview with Dr. Emmerich Schiller, DaimlerChrysler Miniaturization: Lilliputian Factories Communications: Transforming Production with Tiny Transponders Augmented Reality: Hello, Im Pump 235 Facts and Forecasts Interview with Prof. Engelbert Westkmper, Fraunhofer Institute
INTERNET
Networks of the Future

32 35 41 44 47 49 51
Professor Wolfgang Wahlster is the director of the German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence in Saarbrcken and Kaiserslautern.
The DFKI Supervisory Board is dominated by stockholders from industry. In addition to ensuring DFKIs adherence to lean management structures and cost-efficient research, Board Members also work with the companys scientists to draw up roadmaps for future research. Here, a key criterion is the projected benefit to industry. Modern research centers such as the DFKI are organized as public-private partnerships and are closely linked with industrial research. Their work is strictly project-oriented, employee contracts are of limited duration, and management boards include representatives of both industry and the science community. Project work often produces industrial spin-offs. Furthermore, DFKI scientists are not expected to work solely as researchers until they retire; instead, research activity is regarded as simply the career phase that immediately follows a successful academic education. Young scientists are expected to do research in Centers of Excellence for a limited period of time in a business-friendly and project-oriented setting, and to follow this phase either by putting into practice modern concepts of education in universities or by implementing technology transfer in the world of business. Public-private partnerships, project-oriented research, the establishment of Centers of Excellence, and bringing together the best thinkers from the worlds of science and business so that they can plan research roadmaps, scientific megatrends and strategic focuses in research these are the key components of the dynamic innovation networks that will help participating companies to maintain and improve their leading positions in key areas of information technology.
Scenario 2015: Being There Network Convergence: Building the Unlimited Expressway Semantics: The Thinking Web Ubiquitous Computing: Inside the All-Inclusive Network Facts and Forecasts Interview with Prof. Raj Reddy, Carnegie Mellon University Society: Crossing the Digital Divides
ROBOTS
Machines with Emotions

56 59 62 64 66 69 71 73
Scenario 2020: Servants that Never Sleep Cooperative Navigation Systems: Mr. Clean Reports for Service Interview with Prof. Gerd Hirzinger, German Aerospace Center Facts and Forecasts Artificial Intelligence: Can We Build Intelligent Machines? Emotional Intelligence: Say It with Feeling Opinion: We Are Becoming Cyborgs Society: In Our Own Image
FEATURES
Home Automation: The Electronic Home Research Partnerships: Protecting Brands with Biomolecules CargoMover: The Automatic Freight Car Venturing: Getting Started with a Powerful Partner Start-up Companies: Minuscule Motors Researchers and Patents Feedback / Preview
Cover: Mexi a robot with feelings (top right) and miniaturized pressure and temperature sensor compared to an ant (bottom left)
4 30 54 76 78 80 82
Pictures of the Future | Fall 2002
FEATURES
Home Automation
Automation and communication systems will shape tomorrows home. Here are some of the most important innovation areas.
Internet connection Networked household appliances
Floor cleaning Vacuufloor robots Home delivery box Biometric recognition
Communications and remote diagnostics
Intelligent waste center Mobile household appliances
waves and romantic lighting. Theres just enough time to survey the scene with satisfaction when the doorbell rings. The various elements of this scenario arent as futuristic as they might sound. In fact, they belong to the concepts currently being considered by researchers involved in Home of the Future analysis. Similar scenarios have been developed in the Pictures of the Future studies performed in recent months by BSH Bosch und Siemens Hausgerte (household appliances) GmbH with the support of Siemens Corporate Technology (for more information, see Pictures of the Future, Fall 2001 and Spring 2002). Our study focuses on the 2007 to 2012 period, initially for the European and North American regions, says Dr. Joachim Damrath, head of Corporate Technology for Innovative Products at BSH. Future Trends. To explore new business opportunities and the technologies these will require, experts began by identifying more than 140 future trends that are significant for innovations in the household. These range from the growing numbers of single households, working women and teleworkers, to an aging population and the increasing value people place on individuality, mobility, convenience, safety and wellness. Of course, they also include the technological trends toward increasing automation and networking. One conclusion of the study is that any device, solution or service that saves time, improves convenience and is easy to use represents a promising development, explains Damrath. BSH takes the increase in networking into account through ideas such as Smart@Home. Here, users employ their cell phones while away from home to check status and error messages in household appliances such as kitchen ranges and washing machines, and then contact customer service via the Internet, or even control these devices remotely. Later this year, BSH will roll out the first Internet-capable and networked products for such an intelligent home. Another idea from the engineers drawing board is the home delivery box with different compartments for a refrigerator,
The Electronic
October 2012. By the time Mark Conrad returns to his home, everything is just about ready for this evenings romantic dinner. Out in the back yard, the automatic lawnmower is droning through its last few rounds. The robotic window cleaner has also finished up its chores, as has the vacuufloor robot. With the help of his fingerprint and voice-recognition systems, Mark is able to open up all the compartments of the home delivery box thats outside his door. Excellent! The food service has delivered the fresh vegetables, the chicken and even the Chinese bean paste; and all the supplies he ordered from his cell phone on his way home are also there. Using the Internet, Mark had been able to check his refrigerator and discovered to his dismay that he was running low on several items. He was also very pleased to discover that the dry cleaners had dropped off his jacket in the textiles compartment.
Home
Innovations such as cleaning robots, voice control, and household appliances with Internet access will transform domestic life. Heres a look at what it might be like.
heads for the bathroom to freshen up. On the way, he tosses his clothes into the washing machine, which determines the ideal cycle from the electronic tags on the clothes. After bathing and dressing, Mark looks and feels very sharp. He heads over to the living room to set the table (he still considers the new set-the-table robots to be too expensive). That job done, he uses voice commands to have the home system create the scent of roses, the gentle sound of breaking
freezer and dry cleaning, each of which can be accessed only by the appropriate delivery service. This is not only going to be a big help for people who are on the road a lot, its also an interesting combination of devices, services and logistics that encompass such functions as order processing and access authorization, says Damrath. Such delivery boxes have already been installed at some initial trial sites for example, in the Futurelife house located in Switzerland, which was equipped by Siemens, among others. Another trend that highlights the huge gap between the household of tomorrow and that of yesterday is the willingness to access outside information. Since grandmothers heyday, there has been a marked decline in homemaking skills, Damrath explains. Todays homemaker would just as soon call on expert knowledge when a problem requires it. This is an opportunity for providing Internet services, which might range from exotic recipes to instructions for cleaning Persian rugs. Damrath can even imagine cleaning robots that report spots on the carpet to their master or mistress and then communicate spot removal instructions via the Internet.
ing tables will gradually follow perhaps later in Europe than in Japan, where acceptance is greater. In Japan, enthusiasm for robots stops short only at child care. The fact that technological limitations arent the main barrier to the introduction of new solutions is demonstrated by many business ideas developed in Siemens Pictures of the Future scenarios for the foods & beverages, cleaning & maintenance and health & wellness process chains. Whats more, its entirely possible to build a refrigerator or freezer that automatically inventories its contents and issues replacement orders via the Internet. Such devices are enthusiastically reported on in the media. Here, problems relate more to logistics. The food industry would have to tag its products appropriately, for instance with polymer tags (see article on page 19). But, as Damrath points out, That still doesnt solve the question of what you would do with homemade foods such as jams or with partially empty containers. Synergies with Siemens. In all these developments, BSH enjoys an important advantage through its close ties with Bosch and Siemens. The companies work together in ar-
Many Global Brands from a Single Source

Since its establishment as a joint venture in 1967, Bosch und Siemens Hausgerte GmbH has been a single source for famous brands. The company is one of the worlds leading household appliance manufacturers (2001 sales: 6.09 billion euros), combining global brands Bosch and Siemens with specialty brands Constructa, Gaggenau, Neff, Thermador and Ufesa as well as Balay, Lynx, Superser, Pitsos, Profilo, Coldex and Continental. Together, they meet diverse customer needs in many geographic regions (www.bsh-group.com).
In the kitchen, Mark uses voice input to access his electronic cookbook and calls up the Chinese recipe that his girlfriend says she loves so much. He whistles while he works as he tosses some trash into the waste center which neatly sorts the disposed items into different types of organic and inorganic waste and then comple-tes a self-cleaning cycle. Mark mixes the ingrediants, then relies on the automatic systems in his wok and stove to cook everything to perfection while he
At Home with Robots. Small vacuufloor robots for carpets are currently entering the market. But they are battery-operated and thus lack power a deficiency they try to offset by combining brushing and suction actions. Depending on their success, we might witness the introduction of cleaning robots for tile and parquet floors, and possibly even for windows, during the next few years, Damrath ventures. Humanoid robots capable of climbing stairs, making beds and clear-
eas such as new materials for scratch-resistant and easily cleanable surfaces, sensors, voice recognition, security technologies, user interfaces, robotics, fuel cells, automation and information and communications technologies. There are numerous synergies, Damrath says. Even our Pictures of the Future are an example of synergy with Siemens in fact, thats where the whole systematic approach was developed. Ulrich Eberl
INDUSTRY
Scenario 2010
Long before construction begins, future factories will function as virtual systems. Designers, engineers, suppliers and customers will be able to see the final product before production actually starts. This will accelerate processes, increase flexibility, prevent planning errors and lower costs.
A stereoscopic image of a virtual factory is projected on a large screen. The image, which includes 3D models of machinery as well as an overview of production processes complete with realistic sounds, is a digital representation based on geometric information generated by a powerful computer. Even people located elsewhere (above left) can follow the presentation via the Internet using data glasses and haptic gloves.
table to turn the jacket. At the sleeve, a small PDA personal digital assistant with a roll-out display comes into view. Light-colored strips of conducting material run through the fabric. Elements made of a photovoltaic film are attached at the back, hardly visible. These economical solar cells are found on the shoulders too, and there are soft plastic rechargeable batteries inside the shoulder pads. As the mouse moves, the jacket takes up an ever greater portion of the screen, until finally the inside is visible. Thats our Health-
The Magic of Virtuality

Munich, Germany, October 2010. So thats what the new jacket will look like. Thats fantastic, says Cynthia Brown, as she looks at the large screen. Cynthia is standing in the virtual reality (VR) lab of the Virtuplant planning office and studying the design of an intelligent jacket with integrated electronic components. VR software expert Arnold Goetz pushes his computer mouse across the Sense device! Cynthia nudges her colleague Oliver Bach. He has come to the presentation with her to see how the product from their biotechnology company, which monitors bodily functions and sends data to a family doctor, can be fitted into clothing. Virtuplant has digitized all of the data. Now Goetz will simulate and test the entire process in other words, everything from production of
2010
INDUSTRY
Scenario 2010
Visit to a virtual plant. At Siemens Corporate Technology in Munich, entire factories are just a mouse click away. actly how their companys product is supposed to be integrated into the jacket. At last, Goetz gets the jacket up on the big screen. OK, now lets take a look at the PDA, he says to a round little man who had been standing in the darkness of the VR lab. Theres a problem with the display, Goetz says. It can be extended only when the arm is outstretched; the wearer doesnt have a view of the monitor. The little man turns pale. Oh no, he gasps. My boss is going to blow his top; were already behind. Dont worry, Goetz says reassuringly. Weve used a neural network to calculate the optimal wiring, so that it works and also uses the least amount of material. The PDA maker seems somewhat relieved to hear all this. So everythings going to be OK? he asks. Yes, you can tell your boss that you dont have to build a prototype and youll be able to save at least six weeks, says Goetz. Now lets get back to you, he says, turning to Oliver and Cynthia. Just a moment, says Cynthia. We still need a second to hook up with our colleague Markus Zoller. She dials his number on her UMTS cell phone. A moment later Zoller has established a connection from his office via the Internet. The Virtuplant software feeds him the image through data glasses, so its as if he were sitting in the VR lab with the others. Goetz continues. The problem is that sometimes the HealthSense device disrupts data transmission in the jacket because of its frequency. So I designed a screen and fitted it into the virtual model. Oliver and Cynthia are amazed. You figured that out just by using our data? says Oliver. What did I tell you, Zoller intones from the speaker. The mans a genius! Could the jacket be ready to go to market this winter? asks Cynthia. That could work out, says Goetz. Ill run through all the supplier logistics right away. He turns toward his monitors. Then Globas approaches him again. Ahem, Mr. Goetz, do you have a second? he asks, wrenching him from his concentration. Somehow it looked more cheerful in blue, maybe wed better go with that after all. Norbert Aschenbrenner
INDUSTRY
Digital Production
the fabric to integration of special functions. Well begin with the material, says Goetz Then comes the PDA, then your HealthSense device, and finally well run through the supply chain. Suddenly the image of a factory appears on a large curved screen in the virtual reality room. But I said we dont want a blue floor in the hall, blurts out Wolfgang Globas who heads upmind&drapery, a garment-making company. He steps over to the computer table and snaps at Goetz: I want gray. We should have stayed with the conventional planning. Well have it in a second, murmurs Goetz. He calls up the palette, selects the right color with a mouse click and hands Globas a pair of 3D glasses without saying a word. Ah! Globas exclaims. Hmm. But arent the machines too far apart? And the lengths of fabric are too wide! No problem, says Goetz. During virtual operational testing, we discovered that the previous design triggers unacceptable vibrations at certain running speeds. Goetz indicates a machine by pointing to it with a laser pointer and says: We increased the distance here. Now nothing vibrates. I see, mutters Globas. Thats probably why the fabric used to tear now and then but why are the lengths wider? Well, with this arrangement you have about 20 percent fewer rejects, Goetz answers. Now Ill start up operations, he says with a grin, ignoring the dumbfounded expression on the clothing manufacturers face. He enters a few commands and the machines start moving. Immediately the sounds typical of a factory floor can be heard. Thats our latest feature, says the VR specialist proudly. We generate an audio sample from the data, he continues. With a chemical factory, we could even calculate material movements and heat flows in real time. Oliver and Cynthia are elated. The entire production process is unfolding before their eyes. Goetz zooms in to check details; even the inner workings of the machines become visible. Oliver and Cynthia start to become a little impatient only when the entire cutting and sewing process is demonstrated, and virtual robots begin simulating machine maintenance. The two finally want to see ex-
Factory in a Computer
With innovation and design cycles getting shorter each year, companies are under pressure to become not only increasingly flexible, but also more productive and customer-focused. Digitization and virtualization are helping them meet this challenge. In the future, production lines, machine tools, products, and even the entire logistics process will be modeled and tested in advance on computers. Shorter times to market and higher quality will be the result.
The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) believes that many of todays factories are caught in a vicious circle. According to a BCG report on automobile production in the 21st century, manufacturing processes that have been established and perfected over decades all too often have no leeway when it comes to dealing with the flow and storage of materials in production areas. Individual manufacturing cells look overcrowded, and even insiders have trouble understanding the various processes. To prevent production slowdowns, inventories are kept at high levels, which drives up costs, compounds the shortage of storage space and creates an even more confusing factory environment. To escape this situation, production lines must be designed in a modular way to allow rapid responses to changing market needs. Of course its not like that in all companies, says Dr. Bernhard Nottbeck, head of the Production Processes Department at Siemens Corporate Technology (CT) in Munich, Germany. Nevertheless, nearly all companies must continue to optimize their production to remain competitive. Ever-shorter innovation cycles will require companies to substantially increase their flexibility, he says. In the auto industry, for example, it used to take five to seven years before a new model was ready for market. Today that cycle has been shortened to two or three years. To further accelerate this pace, experts and not just those from automakers (see interview on page 13) and their suppliers, who have generally taken a pioneering role are now counting on the digital factory. Visualization of Virtual Data. The digital factory gives planners and designers tools they can use to optimize production facilities or to subject a planned change to virtual trial
runs, explains Professor Engelbert Westkmper, Director of the Fraunhofer Institute for Manufacturing Engineering and Automation in Stuttgart, Germany (see interview on page 27). Today this is still wishful thinking, but Nottbeck is convinced that by 2010 all the elements and processes of a factory could be represented in computer models. We can already see the trend toward using computers to plan not just the products, but the entire production process, says Uwe Bracht, Professor of Plant Engineering and Material Flow Logistics at the Technical University of Clausthal in Germany, and a specialist in factory planning. In a few years, a plant manager will be able to access all the data at the click of a mouse and display the information as images. In other words, it will be possible to visualize everything from machine utilization and the manufacturing status of production parts to the logistics environment and materials flow patterns. The key is virtual reality. A number of researchers at Siemens CT are working on the visualization of virtual factories, processes and prototypes. Take Pablo Gumann, for instance. All it takes is a mouse click for him to
INDUSTRY
Digital Production
The Road from Increasing Computing Power to Distributed Intelligence

As with PCs, computing power has grown immensely in automation. Twenty years ago a SIMATIC controller had 24 Today, as a result of increased computing capability, peripherals are connected directly to programmable logic controls. Intelligent on-site sensors assume responsibility for a wide variety of functions.
16 MB 1 GB Increase in memory capacity of a SIMATIC electronic controller since 1980 RAM Hard drive 128 KB 4 MB 24 KB 24 KB 1980 1984 1988 1992 2000 1 MB 40 MB 8 MB 100 MB
switch from Siemens Virtual Reality Lab in Munich to a production shop in Nuremberg, Germany where Siemens Automation and Drives (A&D) is planning a new production facility for electric motors. Gumanns computer contains the planned buildings coordinates as well as the locations of machines, aisles and storage areas. When Gumann puts on a special pair of goggles, he sees a 3D image of the facility projected onto a curved screen by three projectors. Another mouse click enables him to fly down the virtual aisles or to get a birds-eye view of the facilitys entire layout. All in all, he and other specialists at CT have created a virtual model of the facility that enables A&D to optimize facility planning. Acquiring and adapting the data manually is a lot of work, says Heinz-Simon Keil, head of the Center for Visual Engineering at CT. But its worthwhile if the virtual model can be used over and over. All of the real ob-
jects and their functions are now replicated in a 3D library. In the case of the Nuremberg facility, for instance, this data may be very useful to A&D in China, where a similar plant is slated for construction in Tianjing near Beijing. Thanks to the digital model, we anticipate that planning costs will be slashed, Keil predicts. The virtual model would be useful in planning both the production facility and the individual workstations. Virtual Vehicles. A subway train comes rushing straight at Boris Grobholz. Yet the software developer remains motionless in his chair, even when the train is just a few feet away. As the large windshield of the front car seems to reach Grobholz, the train speeds on silently, and its interior is now displayed. The seats are rushing past him, making him feel as though hes flying through the train. Now the digital model changes the perspective: Suddenly only the empty carriage is visible with its chassis displayed. A few moments later, the train is shown taking a curve at gradually decreasing speed. The simulation reveals at which point the carriages begin to scrape along the platform edge on the inside of the curve due to reduced centrifugal force, which is now too small to push the train out-
Meeting at the video wall. Planners and engineers can discuss digital drafts and incorporate improvements on the spot.
ward. This type of visualization enables engineers to design the geometry of tunnels without resorting to real test drives. A digital model of the future subway in Vienna has already saved Siemens Transportation Systems time and money, reports Grobholz. In the past, a real train had to be draped with styrofoam sheets and driven at decreasing speeds through the curves until the styrofoam touched the edge of the platform. In the future, additional data covering acoustics, air and heat flows will be used for instance, to compute how a tunnel should be shaped to minimize the pressure waves caused by trains. But digital models can also be used to visualize smaller components such as the electric window controls in an automobile. Since all physical values are entered into the simulation, Grobholz can test whether another, less expensive motor could do the same job, and whether it would fit into the car door. Researchers at Corporate Technology merely need to change the respective data, and the system automatically produces a motion picture showing the motors fit and function. This approach enables customers to gain early insights into the production approach used by a supplier, which in turn benefits from increased planning cer-
kilobytes (KB) of main memory. Today it has 16 megabytes (MB) plus a one gigabyte (GB) disk drive. In the past, mainframe computers were needed to control a production plant and its associated drive systems. Today, production units communicate with a control center via a bus system and are equipped with their own processors. The result: controls and drives function autonomously. Increasingly powerful processors make it possible to incorporate sensors in individual devices to support self-monitoring and on-the-spot diagnostics. Whats more, systems are getting smaller and smaller. Soon sensors will have the computing power of todays PCs and greater computing power will provide enhanced flexibility. In the future, for instance, production processes may be significantly improved by incorporating image-processing sensors capable of distinguishing colors, scanning surfaces and measuring surface profiles. Another important trend is the increasing level of embedded software. This makes individual components more flexible, because their functions can be easily updated. As a result, production can respond more swiftly to customer requirements, and factories can adapt to market needs with a greater level of flexibility.
tainty. Digital models are also an important requirement for mechatronics the application and optimization of mechanical systems, electronics and software during the development phase of a product or manufacturing plant. With this in mind, Siemens A&D recently introduced a software tool called eMPLC that can be used to model and virtually start up entire manufacturing cells, such as those for welding bodyshells in auto plants. Developed jointly with Tecnomatix, an Israeli company, eM-PLC uses data from mechanical functions to generate a program that allows a SIMATIC S7 controller to manage welding robots, a conveyor belt and a component feeder. The program then virtually controls the 3D manufacturing cell and enables engineers to simulate the interplay of mechanical processes and electronics something previously possible only in a reallife system. The program can also simulate unforeseen events, like a worker approaching the welding robot. The networking of all parameters has crucial advantages. For instance, an observer can see immediately how minor changes influence the system as
a whole. Furthermore, design flaws are also detected much earlier. The time to production is thus much shorter a feature that can cut costs by more than 20 percent in the planning phase. The system can also create virtual machine tools and their components, though Nottbeck stresses that safety-related machines or components will always have a real-life prototype. Setting Standards. The reason why components, machines and production lines arent entirely simulated digitally is the lack of networking. Dissimilar software tools are in use, and their interfaces are incompatible, says Nottbeck. The result is costly programming thats both time-consuming and labor-intensive. We need to find a common language, he adds. Thats still years away, but once standards have been established the entire industry will benefit. The advantages of networking technologies that are already available are demonstrated by Siemens Totally Integrated Automation concept. All products from A&D that can communicate such as speed
counters, circuit breakers and motors function seamlessly with SIMATIC controllers. Totally Integrated Power (TIP) occupies the next level up in the network: In the SIMARIS software program, the Siemens A&D, Power Transmission & Distribution and Building Technologies Groups provide a tool that companies can use to plan the distribution of electrical power, both in buildings and processes, including climate control systems and information technology. The system determines the optimum ratings of required switches, conductors and power generating units. TIPs potential benefits are huge, as the networked approach can cut energy distribution costs by up to 25 percent. Networking enables the digital factory concept to provide even more extensive capabilities and services. As a case in point, Siemens Industrial Solutions and Services (I&S) has teamed up with neural networks experts from Corporate Technology to develop a process optimization solution for paper mills (see box on page 12). Another I&S project is aimed at medium-sized companies. In this case experts assume responsibility for
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INDUSTRY
Digital Production
INDUSTRY
Interview with DaimlerChrysler
interactions between suppliers and their customers. This service includes production planning, the acquisition of operational and equipment data, plus the handling of financial and controlling functions. Siemens can also provide IT services to mid-sized companies so they dont have to invest in expensive computer systems and additional IT personnel. In conjunction with other partners, Siemens is conducting a pilot project in a
foundry. This approach enables the client company to achieve greater transparency and not only determine which of its products is profitable but also how profitable. Specific customer questions regarding the feasibility and cost of manufacturing a component can be answered within an hour. Machine Tracking. Transparency can also be enhanced by e-business. Thus, in addition
Fuzzy Logic Puts Industrial Processes on Autopilot

Getting a new factory up and running flawlessly tends to take a long time. Professor Bernd Schrmann of the Neural Computation Department at Siemens Corporate Technology and his team are therefore working on a program that can automatically optimize plants essentially putting the planning process on autopilot. In conjunction with Siemens Industrial Solutions and Services, these fuzzy-logic experts have, for instance, implemented the SIFLOT solution at Lang Papier a paper company based in Ettringen, Germany to optimize the degree of whiteness of recycled paper. To do so, they fed all relevant values (raw material quality and fiber content which can vary widely as well as values regarding chemical usage and the amount of rejected material) into a neural network. The data was then used to train the network.
Recycled paper production. A SIFLOT neural network fine-tunes all relevant parameters. The system saves more than 1 million euros per plant per year.
to handling commodity flows, e-business can be used to remotely monitor and control machines. Siemens already provides a service to optimize machines via the Internet. Here, online dialog enables technicians to correct faults swiftly and simply. Electronic monitoring can also be used to track the operational characteristics of machines over time so that signs of wear can be detected early. This approach allows maintenance to be performed on an as-needed basis. For instance, using a visualization system and data goggles, a non-specialized technician can perform various maintenance tasks (see article page 23), thus obviating many expensive visits by experts. The Internet can also be used to enable virtual collaboration among product planners. One example is the development of the desktop charger for the Siemens SL45 cell phone. Engineers in Aachen and Munich, Germany worked together on 3D models with production engineers in Taiwan on the project. Participants were able to view, rotate, cross-section and modify each model on their monitors. As a result, the coordination process was speeded up substantially, and the charger was completed in two-and-a-half months. The process normally takes four. New Challenges. Virtual collaboration across cultural and language boundaries, virtual plant fly-throughs, machines and products visualized in 3D, remotely maintained and modular factories these are just some of the revolutionary changes we can expect to see. Although humans will transfer more responsibility to intelligently controlled machines, they will also assume new responsibilities. When a multinational project team is studying a virtual model, for example, participants must be capable of reaching decisions swiftly and independently. This kind of teamwork calls for new skills. In addition to their own expertise, team members also need to understand interdisciplinary processes. Theres no way industry can get around digitizing and virtualizing its factories, says Nottbeck. But we still dont really know how much these changes will impact our lives and the way we work. Norbert Aschenbrenner
Simulating Factories and Industrial Processes

In a recent panel discussion on automotive issues, you referred to the digital factory as the third revolution in the auto industry. What did you mean by that? In a figurative sense I think of the digital factory as the counterpart to the digital vehicle. Just as a computer aided design (CAD) model digitally represents a vehicle with all of its components, a digital factory describes the subsequent real factory with all of its components, as well as the interactions between them. Only after a digital vehicle has successfully completed its passage through a digital factory will it be released for production in a real factory. So a digital factory is a virtual representation of a real factory based on an integrated data model and that makes it possible to consistently apply digital planning methods along the entire process chain, from product development and production planning to large-scale production. Whats revolutionary about this concept? The key advantage is the close digital integration of product development and production planning. The digital factory is the logical extension of CAD applications in automotive product development. Thanks to this concept, decisions regarding hardware that used to require prototypes can be made on the spot. In the digital factory, production planning seamlessly extends the digital process. Its integrated data model forms the backbone that can support a range of functional modules, such as 3D simulation and conventional process time analysis. What distinguishes the concept of the digital factory from Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM), which has been talked about for a long time but apparently never actually achieved? I dont believe CIM has been a failure. It may well be that the initial euphoria was exaggerated and the expectations it created unrealistic. But I am convinced that with the digital factory weve taken a great step forward in the consistent use of data which is the goal of CIM. Many important subsets of CIM are now taken for granted. And at the very least, the debate about CIM has taught us this much: Such a profound intervention in industrial processes and practices must never be considered merely from the perspective of information technology. Its also crucial to consider organizational, technological and human aspects. But I have no doubt that well succeed in realizing the digital factory. In a few years, it will be just as much taken for granted as CAD is in todays development departments. When did your project at DaimlerChrysler start, and what are your objectives? At the end of 2000 we launched the Digital Factory Project with the objective of integrating existing insular IT solutions and adding functionalities that were still missing. In the past we often had to invest a great deal of time and effort into exchanging data through various interfaces between dissimilar systems. Thats going to change now. Our status as a corporate function enables us to coordinate and consolidate many activities. Whats more, new functionalities will support planning activities. We want to move on from pure data management to effective planning on the basis of the data we have. One key element of this objective has already been implemented. Vehicle data at
The customer can now select a desired brightness level, and SIFLOT computes the correct values to achieve optimum quality at minimum cost. In the past, these values could be determined only by examining finished products in a time-consuming laboratory testing process. As a result, potential cost savings are enormous over 1 million euros annually per plant. Applying methods similar to those used in paper mills, neural networks have also been used to control mill trains and optimize the smelting of scrap steel in arc furnaces. Whats more, once the data has been obtained, it can be used over and over again to create similar models. Schrmann and his coworkers are currently developing models for other process phases, with the object of using a combination of communicating neural networks to improve the production design of an entire factory.
Dr. Emmerich Schiller, 36, is head of the Digital Production Planning Department and the Digital Factory Project at DaimlerChrysler in Sindelfingen near Stuttgart, Germany. An industrial engineer, Schiller has been with DaimlerChrysler for five years, initially as an assistant plant manager, and later in Production Planning at MercedesBenz Passenger Cars. Before that, at the University of Karlsruhe, he developed processes that are now being applied to digital representations of industrial environments.
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INDUSTRY
Interview with DaimlerChrysler
DaimlerChrysler is now managed by means of a Product Data Management (PDM) system. But unlike product data, it hasnt been possible until now to completely map process data, such as the robot programs used in production planning. The PDM concept must therefore be further developed until weve got an integrated data model from product development and production planning to actual production and, ultimately, sales and after-sales functions. How would that work in a real-world setting? Let me go back to the previous example. A digital vehicle moves through a digital factory. Today, in the assembly area, it looks like this: During digital mock-up (DMU) studies, the entire vehicle is virtually assembled. The idea is to check how and in what sequence individual components can be assembled. The assembly time and the associated tools can also be determined. Its particularly im-
portant that design engineers and production planners work closely together to ensure that they can discuss improvements. For example, is there enough room for convenient access to a given assembly location, by hand or with a tool, to tighten a bolt? Such information provides the basis for configuring automatic assembly lines, designing factory layouts and, finally, planning the entire production facility in the digital world. And all of this happens long before the first real prototype is built. Will it be possible to convert changes in virtual reality data directly into design data? As you mentioned, incompatibility and the need for data conversion have been enormously time-consuming. Rapid planning and evaluation of alternative manufacturing and design concepts is a key objective of our digital factory initiative. When a production planner proposes improvements, a development engineer may have to make changes to the design data. In the past, the engineer would have been issued a change order and would have changed the data accordingly. The digital factory, with its uniform database, enables manufacturing and design engineers to accomplish many changes directly in joint
The digital factory concept goes far beyond product simulation. It visualizes the interaction of all production processes using an integrated data model.
meetings, and therefore in a significantly faster manner. This approach increases flexibility and reduces investment risk, as changes can be made and evaluated long before any hardware is built. Of course, this works only if external partners, particularlysuppliers, are integrated into the process. Will the digital factory concept save money? Yes. With integration at the IT and process levels, well be exploiting substantial opportunities not only in terms of cost, but also in terms of quality and time. Our experience to date has shown that this approach can detect problems much earlier and resolve them at a lower cost. The results include substantially higher levels of maturity and consequently faster production ramp-ups, as well as fewer revisions in the entire process. Fewer revision loops not only mean faster time-to-market, but also more time for us to respond to customer requirements and product innovations. Have you quantified the resulting benefits? Weve created a detailed business case for the implementation of our project. The initial effects were achieving today are showing us that our earlier assumptions are holding up well. But the digital factory is based not only on economic decisions, but also on strategic ones. No automaker can develop new products without using CAD anymore, and it will be exactly the same with the digital factory. Because of the great diversity of vehicle models, for instance, it is often the case that several different models are processed on the same assembly line. Such complex planning can only be managed with digital support. Weve calculated that production planning time can be shortened by up to 40 percent, and that a simultane-
ous improvement in planning quality can be achieved. Furthermore, shorter development and production planning times result in lower overall costs. Whats been implemented to date? Weve come a long way especially in factory planning, which has already been completely converted to 3D. We now plan factories like the Klleda plant currently under construction in central Germany entirely in 3D. This new plant will set an international benchmark, with respect to both rapid planning and costs. In addition, were implementing initial workflows. For instance, digital methods were used extensively during the development of the new E-Class, which was planned long before there was a Digital Factory Project. Nevertheless, implementation is far from complete. This is due in part to shortfalls in software functionality and incomplete systems integration. However, it is also due to our continuing effort to further advance and adapt our planning processes and production sequences to the capabilities inherent in the digital factory concept. When will your digital factory program be fully implemented? During our rollout were focusing particularly on four priorities: First, to base all our planning processes on standards and production principles that will subsequently be mapped into the software modules of the digital factory. This foundation will enable us to build entire production facilities, production lines and bodyin-white plants from standardized modules. Second, all relevant data about products, processes and resources will be entered into and administered by a data management system. The system will support a high degree of networking between development
Long before a robot goes to work in an automobile production facility, every component and movement is thoroughly tested in a digital factory.
and planning. In this process, data will no longer be exchanged via interfaces. Instead, it will be managed in a common database accessible to all participants. As a result, changes in production planning will result in immediate feedback to development, and vice versa. Third, we are networking all internal and external process participants through workflows in order to ensure they can accomplish their work by digital means. And finally, routine planning tasks will be automated to give planners more creative freedom. This is because in digital planning, a lot of data can be generated automatically from existing data. On the whole, implementation of the digital factory program is comparable to the introduction of CAD in product development. Implementation of the latter took ten to 15 years and in fact is still continuing. We are the beneficiaries of this process. I am therefore inclined to believe that implementation of the digital factory wont take us that long, and that we will be using its key elements by 2005. By then, no manufacturing plant will be built without having first been completely simulated through its digital counterpart. What are the limits of current technology in terms of digitizing production sequences and processes? With todays technology, virtual simulations wont be able to completely replace a real test at least not in the foreseeable future. When it comes to safety-relevant or critical issues for either products or factories real tests will be conducted in the future as well. But simulation, if used selectively, can certainly reduce the number of real tests dramatically. And thats exactly what we are doing very successfully today.
When do you think the digital factory will become standard operating procedure in the auto industry and in other industries? At the earliest, the digital factory will become the state of the art by the middle or end of this decade. I would venture to say that virtually all automakers are now working on its implementation. However, they vary considerably in the way they are implementing it. This is to some extent a philosophical issue, but it also has to do with their willingness to invest. System suppliers those who supply assembly lines, for instance as well as engineering services firms, are counting on this technology. Another key area is aerospace. Here the need is obvious, because when youre building an airplane the first prototype has got to fly or at some point youd have a hard time finding willing test pilots. What comes after the digital factory? Whats going to be the fourth revolution in the auto industry? Thats a little far off, like looking into a crystal ball. But I believe that electronics in particular will profoundly change the auto industry. Thats what planning and production people have to take into account well in advance. Other challenges will result from new materials, new approaches to active and passive safety pedestrian safety, for example and dealing with small production lots. The fact is that all of the automakers have been diversifying their models. As a result, more vehicles are built, even as production runs get smaller. This type of increased modularization requires both greater flexibility in production plants and lower costs for conversion. But thats exactly where a digital factory will offer excellent support. Interview conducted by Sylvia Trage
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Miniaturization
Hardly larger than an ant, part of a miniaturized pressure sensor from Siemens allows forces to be transmitted to a membrane via the round surface (center). The contact points for a temperature sensor are located at T-shaped indentations.
Lilliputian Factories
The chemical industry is under pressure to become more flexible and to bring its products to market more quickly. But with huge plants, thats simply not possible which is why companies are turning to microreaction technology. Siemens is participating in a research project designed to explore the industrial suitability of tiny reactors.
plants. Here, investment costs fall, and there is no need to spend time scaling up from laboratory to industrial production. Miniaturization would also have other advantages for the chemical industry, says Inga Leipprand of Siemens Axiva, a company that specializes in plant construction and process engineering. Reactions on a miniature scale can be realized in modular units in other words, very flexibly. Moreover, they take place continuously and without timeconsuming overhauls or boiler cleaning features that represent another cost benefit compared with todays installations. Many chemical reactions involve significant danger. However, it is the quantity of chemicals used that ultimately determines how much heat develops or whether a process could lead to an explosion. In contrast, the heat given off by a process can easily be dissipated in a reactor whose conduits are as narrow as threads. Thats because small volumes are associated with relatively large surfaces. Furthermore, the yield is often greater, and there are fewer by-products because conditions can be adjusted far more precisely in miniature. Poisonous materials can also be processed more safely on an extremely small scale. Large-Scale Use of Microreactors. A change appears to be in the offing for the chemical industry. According to a study carried out by the Institute for Microtechnology in Mainz (IMM), Germany, all of the industrys top 30 companies are interested in exploring miniaturization technologies. In fact, many experts expect to see the large-scale use of microreactors in production processes from 2005 onward. Several companies have been investigating the new technology for some time, and some have already presented initial results in the area of industrial-scale use. Since August 1998, for example, Merck KGaA has been running several microreactors for the production of a fine chemical. For the Darmstadt, Germany-based company, flexible production is especially important. Merck sells more than 10,000 different chemicals, of which more than two-thirds are manufactured in quanti-
ties of less than ten kilograms per year. Similarly, at BASF in Ludwigshafen, Germany syntheses have been studied and the results used to optimize several processes. There is, however, a drawback. The structures of the tiny reactors, whose conduits and supply lines are measured in micrometers (a millionth of a meter), do not allow reactions with solids, which would immediately block the paths. Nevertheless, experts think many basic chemicals and numerous fine chemicals, including pharmaceuticals, can be manufactured in microreactors. Nor is output volume expected to be a problem. In
patible with one another. Another drawback is that they cannot be operated fully automatically. If microreactors are to succeed on an industrial scale, processes must become fully automated which is where Siemens Automation and Drives (A&D) comes in. Together with Axiva, Merck and the Fraunhofer Institute for Chemical Technology (ICT) in Pfinztal near Karlsruhe, A&D is participating in a project sponsored by Germanys Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) designed to develop a microreaction system for industrial use. In addition to containing
The Micro Revolution in the Chemical Industry

est-looking device is a key component of a research project that could signify a radical change in chemical and pharmaceutical production. In the past, calculations were made according to a simple rule of thumb: the bigger the better. As a consequence, even large investments in technology represented a relatively small share of total costs. But this strategy is starting to show signs of strain. If product demand weakens or dries up, the manufacturer is left with an expensive, largescale installation that is prohibitively expensive to convert. One solution is a miniplant that is easy to realize and can be augmented as needed by any number of additional mini-
Probably the worlds smallest thermal conductivity detector. A gold wire in the middle of a measuring cell is 200 times thinner than a hair. Such sensors are particularly suitable for analyzing gases.
On Dr. Arno Steckenborns fingertip is a square, glittering object that resembles a computer chip. The structures on its silicon surface are hardly recognizable. What we have here, says Steckenborn, a physicist with Siemens Corporate Technology in Berlin, is a pressure and temperature sensor. The mod-
Karlsruhe, Germany, a research center has developed a cube-shaped reactor measuring a mere three cubic centimeters that can pump 7,000 liters per hour in continuous operation. Thats 60,000 tons per year. Nowadays, materials like silicon, steel, glass and ceramic substances are used to make many mixers and heat exchangers with conduits measuring just three to 300 micrometers in diameter. But most are independently developed designs that are not com-
modular microfluidic components to supply it with starting materials and process the product, the system will also be equipped with sensors, analytical elements and process control technology. The dimensions of the components are being chosen in accordance with the dictates of process development and the goal of continuous production on a kilogram scale. The projects partners want to investigate a specific nitration. Nitration is one of the most important transformations in chemistry because the nitro (NO2) groups attached to molecules can easily be transformed into other functional groups. As nitrations usually generate a great deal of heat and often result in many by-products, they are very suitable for testing microtechnology in an industrial context.
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Miniaturization
INDUSTRY
Communications
The special thing is the integration of a fluidic bus system for chemicals and an electrical bus system for communication, says Axivas Inga Leipprand. During the BMBF project, A&D will be responsible for the system, including the control system. Arno Steckenborn and his colleagues at Siemens Micromechanics & Coating center will supply sensors for it. These are essential because the exact regulation of a chemical process requires detailed knowledge of the mixtures pressure, temperature, mass flow and density at every stage. The main drawback of older pressure sensors for microreaction systems is that chemical residues get left over in their openings, explains Steckenborn. Refining Microarchitectures. A membrane in the new pressure sensor, which is made of silicon, imparts the mixtures pressure to a conductive structure by way of a stamp. The resistance of the structure changes and provides a signal proportional to the difference in pressure. A temperature sensor is located behind the membrane. The pressure sensor itself consists of two silicon elements that are bonded together. The direct bonding involved here relies on a type of cementing in which the silicon is pretreated with chemicals. As a result, hydroxide groups are deposited on the surface. When pressure is applied, the parts tightly adhere to one another via hydrogen bonds. And when they are
heated to 1,0000 Celsius, a seamless and inseparable connection is created. Temperatures are particularly critical when metals are involved too high, and metal atoms will migrate into the silicon layer, which reduces the sensitivity of the sensor. But Steckenborn and his team have now refined the technique to the point that only 2500 Celsius is needed, which allows for even more complex components. Steckenborn has also succeeded in building what is probably the worlds smallest thermal conductivity detector. Its measuring chamber is one millimeter in length and contains a 0.3-micrometer-wide gold wire that is around 200 times thinner than a hair. The sensor can be used for the analysis of gases. Here, the sensor is heated up to the point where the wire is about 1000 Celsius hotter than surrounding gases. When their composition changes, the differences in the thermal conductivity of the gases results in a change of temperature at the wire and hence a change in its resistance, which is converted into a signal. This is nothing new. What is revolutionary, though, is the extreme miniaturization of the process. Thinking Small. Miniaturization is also the centerpiece of another one of Steckenborns components a flow sensor that looks like a tiny antenna. The sensor is based on the principle of the Coriolis force, which appears in the context of rotating bodies and, for example, makes clouds in the northern hemisphere drift eastward. In the sensor, the chemicals flow through a ring that is designed to vibrate. The Coriolis force causes extremely small displacements in the plane of vibration, from which the mass flow rate and therefore also the density can be calculated. Sensors based on this principle have been used for years in the chemical industry, but are up to 100 times larger. Steckenborn looks at the tiny antenna in his hand and says: Many people at Axiva and Siemens are used to thinking in the dimensions of conventional plant engineering. Naturally, for them, the trend toward miniaturization means a huge adjustment. Norbert Aschenbrenner
Also known as transponders, electronic tags can be used to identify merchandise, store production or other types of data, and automate product tracking. If they can be manufactured cheaply as plastic foils (photograph), these tiny tags could soon wind up in every supermarket.
Transfor ming Production

They are the ultimate track-and-trace technology. They can hold loads of information and be attached to almost anything. Scientists just have to figure out how to manufacture them cheaply enough. When that happens, factories and the robots that work in them will be able to micro-manage every phase of production.
with Tiny Transponders

Even though automobiles are mass-produced, its hard to find two that are exactly alike. Indeed, the number of options is nearly limitless a fact of life that enormously increases the cost of production planning for automobile manufacturers. Special customer preferences must be taken into account for each vehicle often many thousands of times per day. Yet the business of tracking all these changes is not performed by a mainframe computer. Instead, manufacturers are now using transponders tiny electronic tags that can transmit data signals through their antennas to provide vital feedback and help control complex manufacturing processes. At General Motors Opel plant in Figueruelas, Spain, for instance, a supervising software system controls production. But, thanks to a data chip in its transponder, each vehicle knows what it needs to receive as it travels down the production line ,
Microreformers for fuel cells. The Institute for Microtechnology in Mainz is using these devices to convert methanol into hydrogen, which could in turn be used to power fuel cells.
Known as Moby I, the system consists of a matchbox-sized transponder, a read/write device and a data communications module. Before the first piece of sheet metal for a car even begins its passage through the factory, the individual production data for the car it will be part of is downloaded to a transponder mounted on the vehicle skid. As a result, each vehicle remains individually identifiable throughout the production process and can, for example, communicate whether leather or fabric seats are to be installed in it. At each station, the transponder communicates its on-board data to production robots. The Moby l transponder uses RFID (radio frequency identification) to transmit data to the machines around it. This offers important advantages over barcode systems, since transponders can store much more information and the data can be read without vi-
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Communications
sual contact and from any direction, even if the transponder is dirty or its housing has been scratched. But, as Heinrich Stricker, head of Business Development for Moby Identification Systems at Siemens, points out, The key advantage is that Moby transponders are rewritable. Thats especially important for quality assurance and production monitoring. Both control and production data can be written to the transponder at the completion of each manufacturing step to provide a seamless product history. Today there are six different Moby systems covering a variety of applications. For the auto industry, for instance, transponders need to be heat resistant in order to survive the paint shop. In addition, they should operate without batteries to minimize maintenance costs. Moby transponders are activated by an induction voltage from a reader, which may be at a distance of about 15 centimeters from the transponder in the Moby I system. In the logistics chain, on the other hand, its especially important that Moby markers be readable over a distance of up to three meters. This capability enables transponder-equipped freight on trucks or loading docks to be identified in a matter of seconds. Seamless Merchandise Tracking. Transponders have become important elements in todays logistics chains. Many companies and research institutions are working to make these devices ever smarter and are also trying to find new applications for them. One such endeavor was Project ParcelCall, which was completed in December 2001. Project participants included Siemens Dematic AG, the Technical University of Aachen, Germany, Philips and Ericsson Eurolab, among others. The project was designed to demonstrate how transponders can be used to track product shipments, and to determine which communication standards would be required. The idea is as follows: Trucks are equipped with readers capable of communicating with transponder-equipped freight items. The transponder information is then transmitted by radio to a central computer. Since the truck is also equipped with a global position-
ing system (GPS), the addressee or the freight forwarder can use the Internet or a cell phone anytime to determine the exact location of the merchandise. The transponders were also equipped with sensors capable of recording vibrations, temperature and humidity, explains Hanno Walischewski, a ParcelCall development engineer at Siemens Dematic. This means that, for the first time, customers could check the
condition of their ordered products online during shipment. They could, for example, verify that a product had been continuously refrigerated. Siemens experts designed the heart of the track-and-trace system a server where the data was collected as well as the user interface for the PC and the cell phone. A key advantage of the ParcelCall system is the fact that all information is communicated using
XML, a uniform data format standard that is widely used on the Internet. This consistency is essential to ensure seamless shipment tracing. Most freight forwarders continue to use proprietary tracking systems with somewhat limited capabilities for tracking shipping information across different modalities in the logistics chain. The final field trial in the project tracing a truck from Sweden to England was
successful. But it also demonstrated some unresolved limitations in such track-and-trace methods. For instance, data transfer via mobile communications ran into difficulties. Several minutes were often required to correctly transmit the information. And cellular network coverage was poor in a number of locations. There are other areas in which transponder systems need to be improved. Jrg
Schmidt, a research associate in the Department of Logistics at the University of Dortmund, Germany, is familiar with their shortcomings. Schmidt is building a testing laboratory for transponder systems. The devices often encounter difficulties when metallic objects interfere with or altogether block the radio signals. Schmidt and his colleagues are looking into which materials are transparent to transponder signals, how
Chips on a Roll
In a few years it will be possible to use simple printing processes to manufacture electronic components from plastic materials. But before that can happen, scientists will have to come up with materials and production methods that will make it possible to manufacture plastic chips and transponders at an exceptionally low cost.
circuits in a manner similar to the way newspapers are made. Another advantage is that polymers are flexible. Future polymer chips will be rolled up or applied to flexible surfaces such as fabrics. A transponder woven into a sweater could, for example, inform the washing machine of the water temperature it needs to provide. And in a supermarket, plastic chips could store not only the price of each product, but also its expiration date. With these and other exciting applications in mind, several manufacturers and research institu-
chips can be introduced to the market in a few years. Plastic chips certainly wont replace silicon chips, but theyll create new markets in the lowcost range where electronics are still unavailable, he says. Polymer experts at Siemens are also working with a consortium of various Fraunhofer Institutes and universities. Their common goal is to learn which processes are practical and sufficiently gentle for printing ultra-thin conducting, semiconducting and insulating patterns on a substrate. Furthermore, high resolution is essential to this process. The smaller the structures that can be printed on chips, the shorter the distance that charge carriers will have to travel. And that, in turn, will make chips faster. Scientists at the Fraunhofer Institute for Reliability and Microintegration in Munich are currently setting up a demonstration laboratory for roll-to-roll
technology. Heres how production would work. The substrate material such as a plastic film is fed from a roll through a process sequence that varies with the application. Insulators, conductors and semiconductors must be printed in the sequence required to form the desired circuit. Finally, the substrate bearing printed polymer circuits is rolled up again allowing chips to be sold by the yard. Also conceivable is a process that would allow chips to simply be printed on product packaging. But its still uncertain which materials could be used in large-scale production. In addition, even conventional printing techniques still need to be refined in order to print electronics with the necessary level of resolution. Whats more, these processes must approach a zero-defect level of quality and reliability. After all, while a tiny flaw doesnt matter in a newspaper photo, it can make all the difference in the world in a transistor.
Theres no question that transponders are much more versatile than barcodes. They can store greater volumes of data, are rewritable and can communicate information through their antennas. But they still have one critical drawback: They cost too much. Simple transponders now cost less than one euro but a barcode merely needs to be printed on the product. And thats exactly what researchers intend to do with transponders and the chip inside that makes them so smart. In the future, the intricate electronics will simply be printed like ink on a substrate and incorporated into transponders that will cost only pennies. Scientists have already succeeded in printing tiny transistors and simple electronic circuits using organic inks. What made this technology possible was the discovery about 20 years ago that organic molecules can be conductive. Alan J. Heeger from the U.S., Alan G. MacDiarmid of New Zealand and Hideki Shirakawa of Japan discovered that certain organic molecules such as long-chain polymers not only have conductive, but also semiconductive properties similar to silicon. This discovery earned the three researchers the 2000 Nobel Prize for Chemistry. These polymers can be dissolved in certain liquids just like pigments, says Dr. Wolfgang Clemens of Siemens Corporate Technology in Erlangen, Germany. We can process them just like ink in a printing process, which opens the door to fantastic new possibilities in the manufacture of electronics. Unlike silicon chips, which must be produced in expensive clean-room processes, the polymer ink will make it possible to print electronic
tions are collaborating in project PODOS, an initiative supported by the German Ministry of Research, to develop the first fully functional polymer chip. In the context of the project, Siemens and chemical giant Merck are jointly developing technologies for printing polymer chips. Merck is contributing its expertise regarding the properties of various polymers. Clemens estimates that plastic
Electrodes
Electrically conductive polymers
H N H
A N H
H N
A N
Polyaniline ( )n Polyhydroxystyrene (PHS)

OH
VGS
Insulators
Insulating polymers G
The structure of an organic fieldeffect transistor (right) demonstrates that electronic circuits can be built entirely of plastic. Researchers are working on printing them cheaply in a roll process (photographs left and above). If they succeed, a vast market will be opened for polymer chips.
D R R S S S
Semiconductors VDS
Conductive channel Conjugated polymers
(
R
n S R
Poly-3alkylthiophen (P3AT)
Substrate
Flexible polymer film
COCH2CH2OC
Polyester
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Communications
INDUSTRY
Augmented Reality
quickly transponders can move past a reader, and how many of the tags can be read simultaneously. This latter function is known as multitag capability and is a critical success factor for future transponder systems. At a supermarket check-out counter, for instance, transponder-tagged merchandise would be able to provide an instant and contactless tally of what was in a shopping cart. The Faster the Better. A key factor in multitag capability is the data transmission rate from the transponder to the reader. Thats because the shorter the time required to transmit each data package, the less chance there is for transmissions from other transponders to interfere with each other.
Energy demand is also a key issue. Here, the lab has developed ultra-low power electronics that enable transponders to transmit across long distances. The extra-high frequency transponders from Bulsts lab are battery-operated and have an enormously long range some can actually transmit over several kilometers. Whats more, it is now possible for the first time to measure the distance between reader and transponder to an accuracy of one centimeter. This makes it possible to precisely locate a given transponder by processing run-time data from several readers, which opens the door to entirely new fields of application. Our transponders can bring order to even the most chaotic materials flow
An engineer tests a Speech-Enabled Augmented Reality (SEAR) system. A prototype SEAR interface (below) shows an observed area (top), camera view (bottom right), and the status of the speech recognition engine.
Application areas for the Moby series of transponders range from automobile manufacturing to mail-order operations that send out hundreds of thousands of shipments per day. The electronic tags ensure optimal logistics.
Hello,
Pipes and conveyer belts that talk? Valves and bolts with Internet addresses? Factories that harvest maintenance information on each and every part to build expert knowledge for on-the-spot repairs? Its all possible thanks to a developing technology called Speech-Enabled Augmented Reality.
I'm Pump 235

Today, finding a malfunctioning piece of hardware be it in an off-shore oil platform, chemical plant, refinery or manufacturing facility can be as complicated as navigating the mythical Labyrinth at Knossus. Typically, a problem first becomes evident with a ping as a light starts blinking on an impressive array of monitors in a control room. Someone is then dispatched to track down the offending hardware and identify the problem. But neither task is simple. The process can eat up a significant amount of time, and many cell phone calls later, documentation must be retrieved and an order for a new part filled out. A new technology called Speech-Enabled Augmented Reality (SEAR) developed by Siemens Corporate Research (SCR), in Princeton, New Jersey, holds the potential for a radical improvement of this entire process. Based on a system now being tested at SCR, heres how SEAR would work in an industrial installation: A maintenance engineer working in a remote section of a chemical processing facility receives a message on his PDA, or on a wearable or mobile computer that a pump in section X is malfunctioning. The engineers movements are tracked by combining inputs from infrared beacons located in each area of the facility and a three degree-of-freedom inertia tracker in his Compaq iPAQ Pocket PC. About twice a second each beacon transmits a unique ID, which is detected by the PDAs IR port. This causes a VRML (Virtual Reality Modeling Language) browser to produce a VRML model (a realistic-looking 3D image) of the corresponding scenery file and viewpoint on the PDAs screen. The engineer thus sees where he is standing in regard to his surroundings and an arrow indicates where he should go next. Since the PDA has access to the facilitys geographically referenced and digitized database the most important and complex
With this in mind, Wolf-Eckhart Bulst and his team of Siemens scientists in Munich are developing transponders that transmit in the gigahertz range (between 2.5 and 24 GHz). Moby devices, by comparison, operate in the kilohertz or megahertz range. According to the laws of physics (specifically, those governing bandwidth), the higher the frequency, the higher the data rate. Thus, using higher frequencies, a large number of transponders can be read in a shorter time. But processing such high-frequency signals requires new circuit designs in transponder chips an area now being studied by Bulsts team.
because many objects can be localized simultaneously, explains Bulst. He envisions applications for the technology in the giant parking lots of auto plants, where several thousand cars must be moved around every day. A computer could easily be used to navigate transponder-equipped vehicles because each would be identifiable. And, Bulst adds, Theres one advantage that makes extrahigh frequency technology especially interesting. These transponders can be tracked even where GPS fails, inside buildings and in the canyons between tall buildings. And it can all be done with a very modest investment in technology. Tim Schrder
part of installing SEAR the engineers target object is known to the system. As a result, the PDA can use written or voice commands to direct the engineer to that object. Once in the area of the object, visual markers provide more precise location information. Each marker has a unique combination of dots, making it look like two sets of tic-tactoe boards. Held at the same angle as the engineers head, a camera in the PDA orients the mobile device based on any markers in its vicinity. This solution allows us to calculate the exact position and orientation of the user, explains SCRs Nassir Navab, Ph.D., who led the development of the location detection technology. Even if the object in question does not have a marker, the system can still identify it because it knows the users location and orientation and is constantly comparing it to a 3D model of the facility. Once the problem object is located, the system starts downloading the associated information into the cache memory of the engineers mobile computer. The information appears on his mobile automatically, including the kinds of questions he can ask, says Navab, adding, If, for instance, he is standing in front of a pump, it knows which pump and displays questions about pressure, con-
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Augmented Reality
tents, temperature and maintenance history. Depending on the underlying database, there is no limit to the number of questions that can be asked. 3D Voices: Once a question such as What is your current pressure? is asked, SEAR uses Siemens Very Smart Recognizer voice recognition engine to process the information. The resulting data passes through a wireless access point to a database server. The server
searches its database for the appropriate information, which is transmitted to the PDA. The PDA then generates a 3D voice into the users headset that sounds as if it is coming from the object in question, says SCRs Dr. Stuart Goose, who developed the patented voice control system. The ability to ask questions verbally and to receive spoken responses is important in situations in which the user needs to have both hands available, explains Goose.
ARVIKA: Putting Data in the Picture

Since 1999, Germanys Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) has funded a 21-million-euro program called ARVIKA (Augmented Reality for Development, Production and Servicing). The program is led by Siemens Automation and Drives (A&D) Group. Eighteen industry partners and five research institutes working in areas such as visualization, tracking, portable systems development, and the development of intuitively based man-machine interfaces are involved in the program. ARVIKA focuses on augmented reality (AR) applications that will support development, production and servicing of complex technical systems, explains Project Director Wolfgang Friedrich. We expect AR and its related technologies to significantly benefit manufacturing in terms of improving analysis and maintenance operations as well as overall efficiency.
Patented speech recognition software allows users to "talk" with objects in their immediate vicinity through a wireless connection to a geographical database.
base over part of a users field of view. Using a head-mounted display (HMD) or data glasses outfitted with a camera whose output is wirelessly connected to a facilitys database, a user may, for instance, verbally request such a system to tell him how much torque to apply to a given bolt or what the current function, content and pressure of a pipe or pump is. AR can be an outstanding training and support tool for service personnel, adds Friedrich. For instance, the comparison of real installation work with simulation results could lead to comprehensive service process optimization, which would both improve the quality of work planning and simplify and accelerate diagnostic and repair work on the factory floor.
Source: Siemens
AR superimposes relevant and location-specific information from a digital data-
Does SEAR technology require a major overhaul of a facilitys information infrastructure? Not necessarily. Many facilities already operate on SAP software thats based on object inventory numbers and associated databases, and some power plants have 3D models that are connected to such a database. Furthermore, many factories already run on WinCC, a Siemens automation program that controls programmable logic controllers. The thing is, says Navab, that today this information is shown in an abstract version on monitors. But the point is that the information exists, and that in such facilities, every object is already in the database. So in order to be efficient, our system has to talk to the WinCC and SAP systems. And once that talking gets started, a lot can change, particularly in terms of maintenance and repair scenarios. Not only is each and every object in a SEAR facility in the database, but each could also have its own Internet address. As a result, information regarding each part could be harvested and compared with information from identical or competing parts in similar facilities. Maintenance and repair data could be compared and expert systems developed based on the resulting data. By the time SEAR becomes commercially available in four or five years, says Navab, it may be possible for an engineer confronted with a difficult problem on the factory floor to interrogate the parts maintenance history, send a multimedia email to the person who most recently serviced it, ask an expert system for an opinion and, based on the responses, click the parts Web address and order a replacement. It can all happen on the spot with zip lost time. The applications for such a system are virtually limitless. They range from asking your PDA to direct you to the nearest flower shop on your way to a date, to complex and as yet unexplored scenarios in which multiple users, such as firefighters or security personnel, visualize each others movements as they move toward a common target. This is a generic technology, says Navab. All we can say now is that it is very likely to make many processes much more efficient. Arthur F. Pease
Industry: Facts
Robots, intelligent sensors, the Internet and virtual planning are the driving forces behind the automation industry.
World Market for Automation Technology by Sector

Process automation 80 Machine and factory automation 110
Building automation 110
Total sales volume: 300 billion euros
World Market for Automation Technology by Region

Africa, the Near and Middle East 10 Asia, Australia 80 Europe 110
North America 100
Total sales volume: 300 billion euros
Information technologies are transforming the world of industry. Thanks to growing Web-based interconnectedness, processes within companies are moving faster and becoming increasingly automated. Advances in these areas are revolutionizing everything from online ordering and product tracking in the logistics chain to the digitalization of all the processes in development and production. Ultimately, were talking about the convergence of office and production activities, says Edgar Schber, a Member of the Managing Board of the Software section of the German engineering industry association (VDMA). Today, it is possible to simulate many design steps realistically on screen using powerful computers without having to build elaborate and costly models or expensive test rigs. Virtual simulations are now indispensable in automotive development, says Human Ramezani, who heads the Virtual Reality Center at the BMW Group. In the past, it was necessary to make several prototypes. But that has changed. Today, planners, designers and test engineers work on the same digital model, which they optimize on screen using data communication. If necessary, they can even simultaneously modify the model from locations throughout the world, adds Ramezani. That reduces the costs and, above all, the development time. At BMW, this was one of the technical advances that made it possible to shorten the development time for a new model from six years to 30 months. Robots on the March. In the future, more and more robots will be used in assembly, handling and packaging. The VDMA predicts that, on average, robotics and automation will experience double-digit growth rates in
Source: Siemens
Last year the size of the global market for automation technology was approximately 300 billion euros, with the market being divided into three roughly equal sectors (top). As far as market share goes, Europe is slightly ahead of North America and Asia, while Africa lags behind. The annual growth rate for automation worldwide is 3% to 4%. Whereas Europe and the U.S. expect only 3% growth, the market in South America is likely to grow by 5% per year.
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and Forecasts
the next ten years. Intelligent sensor and image-processing technologies are making the robot a universal automation tool. Robots that give off-site service personnel a status report via their own homepage have already progressed from utopian dream to reality. Industrial image-processing, familiar from surface inspection techniques and measurement technology, will find completely new fields of application. So far, only 15 to 20 percent of potential applications have been tapped. Germanys West LB Bank estimates that sales in Europe will rise from 678 million euros in 2000 to 2.5 billion euros in 2006. Europe, which has a 25-percent share of the world market, can therefore still catch up with the U.S. (33 percent) and Japan (30 percent). E-business as a New Opportunity. In their search for savings, companies are turning to the Internet. For instance, a study concerning cost reductions through e-business in the auto industry, conducted by Deutsche Bank and management consultants Roland Berger & Partner found that manufacturers could save up to five percent of total costs per vehicle through e-business. Purchasing via the Internet harbors enormous opportunities when combined with new business models such as desktop buying and marketplaces. DaimlerChrysler procured a total purchase volume of approximately 10 billion euros worth of goods in 510 online bidding processes in 2001. At DaimlerChrysler, 43 percent of the total value of the parts in a planned production series was negotiated electronically. The economic gains resulting from e-procurement in the first year of implementation have already covered past investments in e-business, says Dr. Rdiger Grube, Deputy Member of the Board of Management responsible for corporate development at DaimlerChrysler. Moreover, he adds, this form of purchasing also has great potential for the future. Data concerning the global market volume of B2B e-commerce electronic commerce among companies is, however, subject to large variations because of the different definitions and recording methods in use. Estimates range from $200 billion (Morgan Stanley) to $604 billion (Forrester Research). Forrester predicts that, by 2006, $7 trillion worth of transactions will be conducted online in the U.S. alone. Furthermore, says Forrester, 27 percent of the goods and services in the U.S. will be sold via B2B ecommerce by 2006. Sylvia Trage
Visualizing Tomorrows Industrial Environments
Number of Industrial Robots Worldwide (Estimated from 2002)

total
Japan European Union
United States All other countries

Source: World Robotics 2002, United Nations, Economic Commission for Europe and International Federation of Robotics
450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
World Sensor Market

Market in billions of U.S. dollars per year 40 Items sold in millions per year 400
Source: Siemens Automation and Drives
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300
In 2005 there will probably be around 965,000 industrial robots in use worldwide. Europe will catch up with Japan where the number of robots in use has been falling since 1997. U.S. market growth will remain moderate.
The global market for sensors

20 200
10
100
1999
2000
2001
has tripled in size in a short time. Whereas sales were slightly less than $10 billion in 1999, they had already reached $30 billion by 2001. The number of sensors sold increased to 400 million.
Prof. Engelbert Westkmper, 56, is a leading expert in the field of manufacturing engineering. Since 1995 he has served as Director of the Fraunhofer Institute for Production Engineering and Automation in Stuttgart, Germany and as Director of the Institute of Manufacturing and Factory Operation at the University of Stuttgart. A mechanical engineer, Westkmper also has a hands-on industrial background, including positions as Manager of Manufacturing Engineering and Technology at MBB in Munich and as Manager of Production Engineering at AEG in Frankfurt. He was also responsible for manufacturing technology at Airbus in Hamburg and Bremen.
How would you describe your concept of the digital factory? There are several building blocks. The first step is a geometric image a replica of the factory that can be scaled from coarse through medium to fine. The second step is a dynamic representation of whats happening in the factory. And the third step is modeling and simulation at the process engineering level. The digital factory gives planners and designers tools they can use to optimize production sites or to run through a planned change in advance. R&D scientists, planners, suppliers and operators can use the same database as others in the company, such as engineers and consultants. We can implement changes much faster because a number of experts can work on a task at the same time. This cuts costs, because it ensures consistency and data correctness. And, of course, simulation makes it possible to optimize things with greater precision. Doesnt this approach produce an incredibly large volume of data? Of course it does. Thats because were dealing with many things that have a life cycle. A factory building normally lasts 30 years, but it doesnt stay the same for 30 years. Machines and systems have an average life span of ten years; in some cases only five years. Something is always being changed. If the digital replica is to remain up-to-date at all times, you must be able to track each change on the computer at any time. Creating nothing more than an image is simple. But if you want to make engineering
changes say a major modification or an expansion youve got to get into the details of the electronics and down to the last nuts and bolts. These different perspectives are necessary because many experts participate in the process. They all want the latest information, and thats what makes the job so difficult. Is a lack of standards part of the challenge? Some standards already exist. But so far they havent been consistent. Whats more, older equipment must also be integrated. But more often than not, the problem is that machine documentation isnt available or doesnt reflect the current status. For instance, it may not tell us if and when repairs or modifications have been made. Because of this it is difficult to tell how long it will take to assemble and store the missing data. This is one of the critical factors that will determine whether or not it will be possible to implement the digital factory within the next five years. What can be done today to collect the missing data efficiently? It wont take long to create great 3D images. Present-generation CAD systems can handle that. Were working on various scanner technologies that will enable us to scan factories with a laser. That will give us the ability to produce images from a distance of 50 to 80 meters. But sooner or later the machines or systems themselves will have to supply their in formation. At that point plug-and-play will
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face. This interface enables experts, even from a remote location and across long distances, to interact very simply and make changes in parameters, control settings, sequences and processes. At Expo 2000 in Hanover, we demonstrated that this is possible and were currently pushing ahead to speed up developments in this area. We intend to further explore this area in order to learn how far we can go, and what benefits these new technologies may provide. One aspect is making systems and machines Web-capable so that they can be accessed via the Internet. Does this mean that factories will eventually be operated by robots that communicate with each other and work together? What will basically happen is that automation will progress in all areas. But thats nothing new. In production units in Germany, for instance, the number of robots in use has increased by between five and eight percent annually. But that number is likely to actually decline if the next generation works twice as fast or can be used even more flexibly. Technological development, simulation and optimization will result in performance increases of about 30 to 40 percent over the next ten years. About half the present number of machines will then be able to achieve the same result. Consequently, factories will continue to become smaller, and the number of jobs is sure to decline. When everything weve been discussing is accomplished, will there still be a place for people in tomorrows factories? Humans will always be involved in designing, developing, operating and engineering industrial facilities. In the words of Frederick Taylor, human beings will become scientific managers who apply knowledge and methods to optimize operations. As we reach for the limits and even strive to surpass them, well always need people. Only humans can understand the relationships between facts and meanings. As a result, industrial jobs will continue to call for ever more highly qualified employees. Interview conducted by Evdoxia Tsakiridou
B r i e f
Innovation and design cycles are growing ever shorter. Companies must therefore produce more rapidly and flexibly to remain competitive. The complete digitization of factory data will make a higher degree of automation and flexibility possible. The digital factory is a scaleable geometric representation of the real thing. Its contents, configuration and processes can be depicted in moving, 3D realtime images. Planning can be conducted on a virtual level. Simulations allow processes to be visualized and optimized. Everyone, including suppliers and customers, can gain detailed insight into manufacturing processes well before production begins. Time-consuming adjustments due to planning errors are thus eliminated and often prototypes as well, which can lead to enormous savings. Siemens is working on all aspects of the implementation of the digital factory. Software tools still need to be standardized to ensure comprehensive networking. Machines or entire facilities can be controlled, optimized or serviced via the Internet. Siemens researchers in Princeton are developing a voicecontrolled system offering online maintenance assistance. Increasing computing power makes it possible to outfit machines, sensors and actuators with ever-more complex features. Together with embedded software, such decentralized intelligence increases production flexibility. Neural networks can optimize processes even further. Transponders are a key element in production and logistics. Inside are chips that store data used for controling manufacturing lines. In the future, simple printing techniques will be used to produce extremely inexpensive plastic transponders. The chemical industry is moving toward a fab-on-a-chip with the help of microreaction technology and automated control. Siemens is developing suitable sensors for such applications. CONTACTS Siemens AG Wolf-Eckhart Bulst, CT MS 1 Fax: +49 63-645-396 wolf-eckhart.bulst@siemens.com Dr. Wolfgang Clemens, CT MM 1 Fax: +49 91-3173-2469 wolfgang.clemens@siemens.com Wolfgang Friedrich, A&D Fax: +49 911-954-903 wolfgang.friedrich@siemens.com Inga Leipprand, Siemens Axiva Fax: +49 69-309-014 inga.leipprand@siemens.com Nassir Navab, Ph. D., Siemens SCR Fax: +1 609-734-6565 nassir.navab@scr.siemens.com Dr. Bernhard Nottbeck, CT PP Fax: +49 89-6364-8100 bernhard.nottbeck@siemens.com Prof. Dr. Bernd Schrmann, CT IC 4 Fax: +49 89-6364-9767 schuermann@siemens.com Dr. Arno Steckenborn, CT MM 5 Fax: +49 30-3862-5764 arno.steckenborn@siemens.com Heinrich Stricker, A&D Fax: +49 911-750-2695 heinrich.stricker@siemens.com Dr. Hanno Walischewski, Siemens Dematic Fax: +49 75-31-8683-2672 hanno.walischewski@siemens.com Dr. Emmerich Schiller, DaimlerChrysler Fax: +49 70-3190-85909 emmerich.schiller@daimlerchrysler.com Prof. Dr. Engelbert Westkmper, Fraunhofer Institute for Manufacturing Engineering and Automation, Fax: +49 711-9 70-11 02 wke@ipa.fraunhofer.de LINKS Fraunhofer Institute for Manufacturing Engineering and Automation: www.ipa.fhg.de (only German) Totally Integrated Power: www.ad.siemens.com/tip/html_ 76.index.htm Totally Integrated Automation: www.ad.siemens.com/tia/index_ 76.htm Arvika: www.arvika.de Axiva Microreaction Engineering: www.siemens-axiva.de/en/ipd/ipd_ komp_chvt_mikro.asp Institut fr Mikrotechnik, Mainz: www.imm-mainz.de Miniaturization / Nanotechnology: www.smalltimes.com
have entered the industrial world. Whats more, well be able to watch the action in the factory as it happens. Wasnt it possible to do this in the past? Well, yes, it was. But we didnt have enough computing power to visualize the action at real-time speeds. Today were using virtual reality (VR). Virtual reality lets us visualize movements and processes and move around in the factory. But the challenge isnt to visualize fantasy worlds, its to see things as they really are in operation. And to do that we need appropriate models and programs. Arent VR displays costly? No. VR displays can now be created on ordinary PCs. However, we would like to represent machine controllers in other words, their programs in these images as well. Only in this way will it be possible to subsequently interact with processes. Now thats really a tall order, because the graphic representation alone is very complicated. After all, were dealing with a situation in which vast volumes of data are changing very rapidly. But the greatest challenge is to represent an entire factory this way, complete with all its robots. When do you expect this concept of the digital factory to become reality? In all probability, the digital factory in the form Ive just described including the technological models wont come into being before 2010. But theres no doubt that it will be used across the board by all industrial companies especially when the issue is planning, optimizing, or resolving logistics issues. However, this new type of factory will also be capable of handling conversions and upgrades. You mentioned plug-and-play. What would that require? First and foremost, consistent standards in information systems and in the way machines and systems communicate with each other. Penetration of electronic components into our factories still has a ways to go. Ma-
Engineers design a digital factory at an electronic planning table at the Fraunhofer Institute for Production Engineering and Automation.
opinion, so-called teleoperations that is, the monitoring and technical support of machines and systems, perhaps verging on remote operation will experience massive growth in coming years. How can safety be ensured and misuse prevented? Security issues and the protection of knowhow are new issues in this context, but they can be resolved. This isnt about operating power plants remotely. In manufacturing there are many systems that pose no safety risk. We can use the new technological opportunities to create virtual workstations and new ways of increasing output. What exactly does a virtual workstation look like? Were using VR here to replicate the processes that go on in the factory. This approach enables us to recreate entire systems as well as details (such as measured values) and to project them onto a large sur-
chines must become more intelligent as well as being capable of self-organization and self-adaptation. Only then will it be possible to endow individual components with pertinent information, to read the data remotely and, by the same token, to perform remote upgrades and maintenance. Ultimately, the key question is this: Will humans also be able to interact with machines? Do you expect remote maintenance and diagnostics to become commonplace? To some extent theyre already available today, and you can add remote service to that. But were moving a step beyond that. We want to be able to optimize and, if necessary, rectify processes from anywhere. In my
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FEATURES
Research Partnerships
The DNA Insurance Policy

November AGs brandprotection technology is based on the ability of a DNA biomolecule to act as an information carrier. The DNA of living beings includes four
Whether its software, processors or auto parts hardly any consumer item is safe from piracy. According to the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), counterfeit products result in approximately $300 billion in losses worldwide every year, or approximately five percent of total world trade. And that doesnt include the losses and damages caused by extremely dangerous counterfeits, such as faked drugs or car parts. In their fight against modern-day bootleggers, companies now have a tool that confronts counterfeiters with an impossible task. Biotech firm november AG in Erlangen, Germany, is using short synthetic DNA molecules for encryption purposes. Like the natural biological code that served as a model, the system involves trillions of possible combinations, which makes the DNA-impregnated security labels just about as close to being unforgeable as you can get. Together with Siemens Automation and Drives, november has developed a system that can quickly and inexpensively check the authenticity of products that carry the DNA labels. Whats more, the product, which will be launched under the name brandprotection, is scheduled to make its market debut by the end of 2002.
constituents (bases) that are arranged like pearls on a string. Two of these singlestrand molecules form a double-strand molecule: A guanine (G) is always joined with a cytosine (C), and an adenine (A) is always joined with a thymine (T). A sequence of G-A-C-G-T on one strand therefore corresponds to a C-T-G-C-A on the second strand. Researchers at november produce synthetic DNA strands of 20 to 30 bases as carriers of the encrypted information. The number of combinations this makes possible is equal to four raised to the power of x, whereby x is the number of bases. Thus, 20 bases corresponds to more than a trillion possibilities. A certain quantity of these single strands is applied to part of the felt pad in the label; the remainder serves as a reference field. The ink in a testing pen contains the counterpart strand that matches the encoding strand. This matching strand is designed in such a way that a fluorescent signal is produced when the strand from the ink and that in the label combine to form a double strand. The reading device from Siemens Corporate Technology contains a laser that excites the fluorescent dye, causing it to glow. This signal is in turn detected by the reader. Only if the structure of the signal, including the reference field, is identified as correct
A security label protects products such as software that can be easily counterfeited. Hidden in a felt pad in the label are strands of artificial DNA that serve as biological markers .
does the user receive confirmation that the matching DNA strands are present and that the label is therefore genuine. The system is forgery-proof. The DNA strands are too short and their concentration too low for their sequence to be analyzed with available genetic techniques. The ink and the label also contain a large number
Protecting Brands with

Genes make each person unique. Brandprotection technology from biotech company november AG works in a similar manner with products. The new technology aims to put a stop to brand piracy. Labels will carry a unique marker made of synthetic DNA, and a mobile reading device from Siemens Automation and Drives will check their authenticity.
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Biomolecules
Presenting a label measuring 1.5 x 2 centimeters and incorporating a felt pad, Dr. Andre Josten, head of Development at november, explains how brand protection works. The system includes self-adhesive labels, a pen with a special detection liquid and a hand-held reading device. The label contains DNA, which is hidden like a needle in a haystack. Suppose a customer in a store wants to check whether a product with the security label is genuine. First, the salesperson would run the reading device over it. If a yellow LED lights up, it means the label has not been tampered with. After that, the salesperson activates the label with the pen and runs the reader over it again a few seconds later. A blue LED will light up if the label is genuine. A blinking LED indicates an error. If a retry leads to the same outcome, the label is definitely a fake.
of additional strands that counterfeiters cannot distinguish from the marker strand, thus ensuring that the latter is concealed. In addition, it is impossible to outsmart the reading device with a label that already contains the fluorescent dye, since the reading process occurs in two stages and there must be a change in the signal detected during the two measurements.
A felt pad contains many individual DNA strands, including the one for the code (top). A testing pen provides the complementary DNA. When the strands from the pad and the pen combine (center) a fluorescent dye lights up (bottom).
Customers also have the opportunity to receive their own special DNA sequence that can be easily exchanged right away if there is the slightest suspicion of tampering.
One drawback of previous techniques based on biological markers is that an analysis could only be done in a lab, Josten explains. Our principle, on the other hand, works on site. Its also very fault-tolerant, fast and easy to use. With this system, Josten says, customers can be sure theyre buying the genuine article and not a pirate copy. This development was made possible by the combination of novembers molecularbiological know-how and Siemens experience in the fields of electronics and optics. The key idea of using DNA as an unforgeable code came to november researcher Dr. Hans Kosak five years ago during a summer bicycle trip on the North Sea island of Langeoog. Contact with Siemens was established via Manfred Httlinger from Moby, a Frth, Germany-based Siemens group that specializes in identification systems (see article on page 19). Httlinger, who was convinced of the potential of the technique as early as 1999, recalls that At first, our electronics specialists and biologists didnt have much to say to one another, and for a long time I fought on alone. But in the end, everyone was convinced that Siemens should invest. Even before novembers IPO, Siemens acquired a two-percent stake in the young company through Siemens Venture Capital GmbH (see article on page 76). Novembers COO Dr. Thomas Schulze, who is also responsible for business development, considers the partnership with a global corporation an ideal arrangement. Siemens is a dooropener for us, he says. Whats more, we havent had any of the problems one might expect with such a big company. Schulze believes that global companies with customers who demand a high level of brand loyalty stand to gain the most from the new brandprotection technology. The price of the system is to be kept as low as possible. The reading device built by Siemens will cost around 1,500 euros. The labels will be produced in batches of a million and more, which means they will sell for only a few cents apiece. Right now, studies are being conducted with potential customers who are testing the system under real conditions, says Schulze. Norbert Aschenbrenner
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INTERNET
Scenario 2015
Being There
Once fiber optic lines reach our homes, life will change in fundamental ways. High definition video communication will not only be affordable, but ubiquitous ditto computing. The result: A range of services such as online translations, intelligent agents that extrapolate information from the Web, and communication devices that automatically network their output. Heres a look at what it might be like.
Good-bye rain. Hello sunny weather. Were finally firming up our plans to leave London. Twenty-seven years after I moved here from Liverpool and founded IntrAcoustics a company that sells wirelessly networked chipbased, diagnostic acoustical systems its time to turn the business over to our daughters and head for the hills. Specifically, the hills around Siena, Italy. Just a year ago my wife Sally was asking her agent a swarthy avatar she calls Mel to do a search for potential construction sites in central Italy, and bingo, we found a whole hilltop. It had an abandoned brick-baking facility called il Tegolaio, which was enough of an excuse to
guarantee a construction permit for a renovated structure. Mel found the owner it turned out to be an office of the Catholic Church that had only recently gone online and helped us negotiate a contract that allows me to deduct the entire price as a charitable donation. Not bad for a guy who barely passed first semester Italian in college! Naturally, even though we had already done so virtually, we physically visited the site a couple of times. But weve been able to handle just about all of the administrativeand construction-related business from up here. Luigi, our architect, loves high tech almost as much as Sally and I do. A couple of
2015
A single fiber optic line to the home will provide virtually unlimited bandwidth. Here, typical users in 2015 discuss building plans with their architect in Italy. An avatar (right in monitor) provides answers to difficult questions. Details appear on hand-held devices and are simultaneously printed out. Translation services, secure connections and event compression e-mails of exchanges are provided automatically.
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Scenario 2015
INTERNET
Network Convergence
years ago he ordered a fiber optic connection for his home which has since become his office only a year after we got ours here in London. Things have really changed since OptiWorld hooked us up. Not many people who have fiber bother to go into an office any more. In fact, theres a whole new market for converting office space into homes in the sky. Most of our friends have wall displays in their studies or living rooms, and the combination of nearly unlimited bandwidth and 3D optics gives them a feeling of being together that would have been unthinkable even five years ago. My retired friends tell me they love it because they can get together for games with acquaintances around the world, and kids who travel to ancient Rome or Aztec sites in Mexico on virtual class trips say that school is great. Like everything around us, the displays wall- or pocket-sized are networked, which brings me back to my new pastime: participating in the construction of our home-to-be. Sally and I had just sat down in the living room to watch merged images
from the dozens of tiny cameras that have been mounted on lighting masts around the site and inside the house. Connected to a fiber line one of the first steps taken in terms of site preparation the cameras form a virtual network that allows us to enjoy seamless panoramic views and, more importantly, allows machines at the site to measure distances precisely so as to order and trim materials to exact specifications. Then a vibration in my wrist phone alerted me to a picture call with an icon of Luigis face. I stood up in excitement, and with a motion of my hand, flicked the icon to the wall screen, where Luigi suddenly appeared as he was getting out of his car at the site. The service providers automated secure connection translation and event compression service identifiers lit up with a soft triple ping and Luigi spoke in what seemed like a flawless British accent even though we know he can only speak Italian. He looked in the direction of his portable communication terminal, which had already linked with the output of the wired cameras to form a perfect, high-resolution image. Hi Stuart. Hello
Sally. Its beautiful down here today. Weathers just great. Its about this bloody speech-enabled augmented reality system excuse my French, he said. The provider just informed me that they still dont know if the next generation system you wanted would be able to automatically detect the locations of every water and electric line and other non-visible items for maintenance purposes. Shall we do it the old-fashioned way and develop digital diagrams of the locations of all these services and then transfer them into the CPU? Itll cost money. But we know it will work. How much? I asked. And by the way, how can it detect hidden objects without the benefit of digital plans? There was a distinctive harp-like sound as Mel appeared. If youll look at your hand units, youll see the difference in price, he said. Its substantial. Furthermore, regarding your second question, the cameras have received a new program that uses triangulation to compile a geographical record of every object installed in and around the house. Having reviewed this subject carefully, including what analysts are saying about the augmented reality company, I estimate that the software you need will be available for downloading by the time the house is ready for occupancy. A printed report confirming Mels statement was already sliding out of a little opening below the wall screen. All right, then its clear, I said. No expensive plans. Luigi, who had also heard what Mel had said in Italian, of course looked surprised but relieved. Youll sign off on that decision? he asked. Of course, I said. Anyway, youll receive the event compression version in a second as an e-mail. What more do you want? As the picture reverted to a panoramic view of the construction site, we noticed that two priests were standing on a large pile of bricks near the building. Now what do you suppose those two are doing there? I asked. Alan, said Sally with a worried tone in her voice, are you absolutely sure you understood all that tax business about the donation? Arthur F. Pease
Researchers at Siemens are studying voice and video prioritization, failure detection and reation techniques, and automated network administration systems in a simulated converged voice, video and data network.
Data Transmission Capacity of a Single Fiber Optic Line

Siemens: 7 Tb/s World Record (laboratory) Siemens: 3.2 Tb/s (=80x40Gb/s) (commercial)
Capacity [Gb/s]
1 ,000 ,000 100 ,000
Capacity limit 50 THz bandwidth Telepresence
Electronic cinema 10 ,000 1 ,000 100

1.0 Tb/s
Building the Unlimited Expressway

Virtual video conferencing, television from a telephone line, flawless quality, unlimited bandwidth. The Next Generation Internet is coming, and its headed straight for your living room.
Things are moving. Too small to be seen or perceived, too fast to comprehend, bits of information once separate trickles of words on telephone lines and static images on monitors are merging into a single, vast expressway. It is an expressway where there is no speed limit, where the number of lanes can swell or diminish automatically with varying levels of traffic, where each of countless trillions of weightless delivery vehicles has a unique license plate, where accidents are instantly circumvented, and where goods are delivered affordably and exactly where, when and how the customer has requested. Welcome to the Next Generation Network (NGN), the 21st centurys defining infrastructure project. The NGN will change everything. In 15 years or less you will be working in a home, office, facility or vehicle in which virtually every object has its own Internet address. Everything from the LEDs that light your desk
Virtual conference, telelearning,teleworking
High-speed Internet 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Thanks to a spectrum of technologies, the carrying capacity of fiber optic lines is growing steadily. In addition to improving the quality of fiber, researchers are finding new ways to split laser light into more frequencies, while increasing the amount of data that can be transmitted on a single frequency.
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Network Convergence
to the penny-sized piezoelectric mini-motors that slide your cars windows will be accessible over the Internet. Manufacturers will be able to track their products, automate the compilation of maintenance information, harvest diagnostic nuggets, and provide their customers with software upgrades all over the Internet. In as little as three years, a PIN, voice ID or other biometric system will usher you into your personal Internet portal from any PC, TV or PDA. Depending on hardware and the services you have signed up for, you will be able to conduct a virtual teleconference one in which an object, document or patient is the focus of the image join an online game, participate in a video distance learning seminar, or simply download the movie, sports event, book, song or lecture of your choice in seconds. Getting from Here to There. Most of the pieces of the NGN are either in development or are already being field-tested. Foremost among them is Siemens SURPASS architecture a software tour-de-force designed to allow traditional digital voice communica-
tions to be metamorphosed into the packets characteristic of the IP (Internet Protocol)-based data network. The result: Voice will be transmitted in the same way as data a technology Internet insiders call voice over IP. SURPASS has been developed to bring the phone and data networks together, says Dr. Stefan Hink, who heads up product line management for SURPASS. But before carriers will buy into it, they must be convinced that this convergence can provide 100 percent voice availability at the quality level their customers expect. Naturally, many aspects of SURPASS technology are still being refined. However, a number of customers are already using it commercially. The objective of achieving dedicated circuit quality in a packet world is no mean task. The idea, explains Hink is to cut voice and
Simulating a fiber optic connection between the U.S. East and West Coasts. Todays fibers can already carry 160 wavelengths, with each wavelength carrying 40 Gb/s.
video into packets, label each packet with a destination address and priority rating, use the packet switching network to transport them, reassemble them at the receiving end, and change them back into analog form for the user. The problem is that todays data network wasnt designed to do that at least not in real time. True to its original purpose surviving a nuclear confrontation the Web is extremely resilient. If a router goes down, other routers simply move traffic around it but with one significant drawback: delay. Figuring out how the NGN can offer realtime, high-quality voice and, by the same token, high-definition moving image transmission, is the objective of Project KING, the German acronym for Next Generation Internet components. The three-year project, which is being funded by Siemens (50%) and Germanys Ministry for Research and Education (also 50%), is concentrating on voice and video prioritization techniques, failure detection and reaction, and network admission control mechanisms. When it comes to quality of service, prioritization is a top objective in the IP world. Today, when you pick up a phone, the signals terminate in a line card in a phone company central office. The line card provides a dial tone and sets up a circuit to the number you dial. Since the connection is dedicated the equivalent of having your very own lane on a highway quality, almost by definition, must be excellent. Things are more complicated in an IP environment, where voice, video and data streams can share the same path. But if the line card is part of a SURPASS system, it can convert your analog voice signals into a packet stream and label each packet as high priority. The stream then heads for a router, which recognizes the labels and zips them through the network in what specialists call a virtual trunk a kind of express lane ahead of competing data packets. Nevertheless, cautions Hink, there are different approaches to the question of labeling, but none are completely mature. I think the entire industry is at a crossroads with regard to its understanding of how all of the new net-
work components are going to work together. If a failure occurs anywhere along the path of a voice or video packet, it must be circumvented without causing any noticeable delay. You cant press a refresh button on your phone if a few of your partners words dont arrive, says Prof. Cornelis Hoogendoorn, who is in charge of Project KING. With this in mind, Hoogendoorns team has developed a technique called multi-path routing that uses algorithms to distribute a data packet stream over several paths from source to destination. We are not transmitting the same stream twice. That would overload the network with redundant information. Instead, we are distributing a single stream over several paths, says Hoogendoorn. You can do this stream by stream or packet by packet. The point is, if one of these routes fails, you dont need to wait until the routing protocol finds a new route, because you have a second one up your sleeve. Even if a bulldozer slices a buried cable in half, the most a user would see would be a blip. Thats how quickly a new route would be established. Just how serious Hoogendoorn and his team are about ensuring the viability of their techniques in the real world is demonstrated by their lab. Packed with routers and simulation equipment, the lab has actually been able to simulate the entire U.S. telecommunications network. We can conduct a video conference, then crank up total traffic or simulate the effects of a bulldozer cutting a line, and measure exactly what if anything happens to image quality, says Hoogendoorn. Bringing Services Home. Of course, not everything you pull up on your screen has to come from across the country or around the world. In fact, a great deal of the content we will receive at home including a vast selection of television channels could come from local servers, thereby reducing the load on the long-haul backbone network. But metropolitan networks those that serve urban areas could become congested as more and more users opt for high-bandwidth DSL (digital subscriber line) service, which of-
A Few Key Terms...

TCP/IP: The Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) and the Internet Protocol (IP) are
the two communications protocols on which data transmission within the Internet is based. TCP splits information up into small packets (up to 1,500 characters) and provides a header a kind of label at the beginning of each packet. The header contains information on the arrangement of the packets and a checksum, which can be used to determine if a packet has been corrupted or altered in the course of its journey. IP simply adds an address label containing the IP addresses of the sender and recipient to each packet.
IP address: An IP address consists of four numbers separated from one another by

periods; e.g. 204.171.64.2. Every computer connected to the Internet has such an address so that it can be unambiguously identified and packets can be sent to it. Users who log on via an Internet provider are assigned a temporary IP address for as long as they are online. Because these number sequences are so difficult to remember, domain names such as siemens.com, or worldbank.org are often assigned. The second part of an e-mail address (behind the @) is a domain name, which can be used to forward the e-mail to its destination network.
Router: Routers are the switching centers between the subnetworks of the Internet. They work like a railroad switch or an automatic letter-sorting system, reading the IP headers on the packets received and recognizing the packets destination network or router on the basis of a preprogrammed routing table. Modern routers can communicate with one another and constantly update their routing tables automatically.
IPv6: A new generation of the Internet Protocol. Compared to IPv4 todays most
common standard IPv6 offers specific advantages, including better support for real-time video and audio. The length of the IP address has also been increased to 128 bits instead of 32 which means it will be possible to assign static Internet addresses to a virtually unlimited number of devices.
fers about one to eight Mb/s. Furthermore, just around the corner is a new service that many industry specialists are eyeing as a potential killer application: video over DSL. Thanks to applications such as tele-shopping, gaming and music downloads, DSL is already growing at 500 percent per year in Germany and Japan. Add video to the DSL picture, and, depending on what the carrier charges, demand for high-bandwidth services could go right through the roof. With a view to meeting the needs of this exciting new market, Siemens has developed a technology that will, for the first time, allow subscribers to receive all their television
programming over a phone line. Known as a DSL access multiplexer (DSLAM), the system offers the potential of sharply reducing the load on metropolitan area backbones. Heres how: A subscriber equipped with a set-top box, a very high bit rate DSL (VDSL) modem (up to 32 Mb/s), and a splitter pushes a button on her remote control for channel 75. Transmitted to a central office, the signal is multiplexed with those from, say, 1,000 other homes. The multiplexer compares the signals and finds that 97 homes have clicked the same channel. Rather than demanding 97 video streams from the data center where the carriers servers are located, it requests
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2002
PERSONAL SPHERE 1
ISDN POTS Telephone 1
ACCESS
CORE Telephone network
ACCESS
PERSONAL SPHERE 2
ISDN POTS
only one stream, then copies the stream 97 times and sends it down each subscribers individual line. A millisecond later, the selection appears on the subscribers screen. Comments Product Development Head Dr. Herman Rodler, who has been involved in writing the VDSL standard, This is a breakthrough because it allows telcos to save the cost of building a huge network to carry redundant information. And on the subscriber side it offers the potential of having a single outlet and therefore a single bill for all communications. Its what 70 percent of users want. Rodler adds that commercial trials will start worldwide in 2003. Personally, I see this as a killer app, he says. Coming Attractions. Naturally, with all the information that will be pouring into our homes in coming years, it wont be long before we will want to network our communication devices. Says Dr. Holger Herzog, head of the Center for Networks and Multimedia Communications at Siemens Corporate Research in Munich, Germany, Suppose you get a message on your mobile , which, by the way, will be the same phone you use at home, and theres a video attached? The solution will be a so-called home media server.
Pervasive communications network (home, W-LAN, Bluetooth, DECT, Powerline )
Meet the Organizations that Write the Internets Standards

One of the most remarkable properties of the Internet is the absence of almost any form of control or limitation. However, even the Internet requires a number of organizations concerned with defining standards for the network. In keeping with its nature, these take the form of non-profit, private organizations rather than governmental authorities. The most important of these institutions is the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN). Representing a broad coalition of academics, technicians, Internet companies, and user groups, it is recognized by almost all governments. ICANN has taken on the task of ensuring the stability of the Internet. It issues all top-level domains worldwide (such as .org or .com), IP addresses and communications protocol parameters. The Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) works closely with ICANN on the development of new communications protocols, while the Internet Architecture Board (IAB) concerns itself with the architecture of the Internet. The Internet Society (ISOC) has no direct powers of its own, but does represent an influential forum in which issues of decisive importance for the future of the Internet topics such as taxation, copyright or censorship are discussed.
Optical Revolution. Considering everything that can be done with an old-fashioned pair of twisted copper wires, you might be wondering why any home or office would ever need the extraordinary capacity of fiber optics. But the answer is simple: applications. Develop high bandwidth applications that people want and can pay for and the demand will be there. If fiber isnt part of the picture, then new, revenue-generating applications will eventually slow to a trickle. According to Dr. Berthold Lankl, who heads up the Advanced Technology Department in optical communications at the Siemens Information and Communication Networks Group, With current technology, we could deliver up to one Gb/s to the home over 1,000 times the capacity of basic DSL. So to me, the real question is, can the current fiber backbone and metro net infrastructure support the explosion in demand that will follow? To ensure that the answer to this question is yes, Siemens scientists in Germany and the U.S. are exploring a range of optical options. Probably the most profound will be the conversion to an all-optical end-to-end system. Today, the signals we transmit are
Access via fixed-line network O O
PC 1
Conventional switching systems (packet switched and circuit switched) Optical data transmission
Conventional C switching systems (packet switched and circuit switched) O
Access via fixed-line network O
Pervasive communications network (home, W-LAN, Bluetooth, DECT, Powerline )
First, you may want a short summary or a key still image of the video on your mobile. Second, youll touch an icon on the phones menu and have the information transferred to your PC or TV. The server will offer you the information you want, on the device you choose, at the location you select and with your personalized visualization style. Similarly, at Roke Manor Research, a U.K.based business owned by Siemens, researchers are developing a home hub system that combines advanced cell phone technology with mobile IP. In coming years, says Business Unit Manager for Internet Systems Keith Halsey, it will be possible to remotely view who rings your doorbell from anywhere in the world, check their credentials, and let them in to deliver a package or bag of groceries. According to Halsey, services of this kind could become a significant source of revenue for Internet service providers. Interacting with your PC will also be a much more personalized experience in the near future. For instance, as part of an agreement with Juniper Networks, Siemens will use software and ERX edge routers from its Westford, Massachusetts facility to provide customers with a Service Deployment Sys-
tem a kind of online shop for telecom services, that can be tailored to each users requirements. One of the most interesting aspects of the service is its bandwidth upgrade button. Suppose youre paying $35 per month for basic service, but every now and then you want to download a group of songs, explains Karen Livoli, Product Marketing Manager for Management Products at Juniper Networks. You realize that at 128k it would take you all night to get those songs. So you hit the accelerator and get the songs in 10 minutes for an additional fee. The point is that the more often the user hits that button, the harder it gets to go back to 128k. So chances are that after a few months hell migrate to a higher level of service, which provides more revenue for the ISP. Adds Thomas Ganswindt, head of the Siemens Information and Communication Networks Group, This empowers the user, while simultaneously reducing administrative costs for the carrier.
Access via fixed-line network ADSL etc. EWSD Local switching center Access via mobile radio
Copper Optical
EWSD wired switching centers
Copper Optical EWSD Local switching center
Access via fixed-line network ADSL etc.
Telephone 2
PC 1
Internet
Edge Router Backbone Router Edge Router
PC 2 Access via mobile radio
GSM, 2G PDA 1
GSM, 2G PDA 2
Cable, satellite TV station
CATV cable distribution network
Cable, satellite TV station
Services available individually in every network
2015
PERSONAL SPHERE 1
V Videophone 1
ACCESS
METRO
CORE
METRO
ACCESS
V
PERSONAL SPHERE 2
Intelligent network management
Videophone 2
PC 2
Body Area Network
Access via mobile radio U 4G
Optical switching technology
Optical switching technology
Access via mobile radio U 4G
Body Area Network
PDA 1
PDA 2
Abbreviations for connections: V = VDSL, U = UMTS, O = optical, C = copper Services available via a wide range of channels (personal agents, multimedia messaging, interactive entertainment, TV, gaming )
TV
TV
Domestic appliances
Anatomy of an Information Exchange in 2002 and 2015

Today (top) we have two digital networks: one for voice (telephone) and one for data (Internet), plus cable for television. Only the core benefits from optical fibers. Over the next few years, these networks will merge into what experts call the Next Generation Network (NGN). By 2015 (below), not only will this process of convergence be complete, but most urban networks (metro), local (access) exchanges, and many private homes (personal sphere) will benefit from optical connections, which offer virtually unlimited bandwidth. Unlike todays haphazard Internet, the NGN will be an intelligent, self-managing and self-healing system. Furthermore, it will be ubiquitous, extending into most objects around us and permitting us to exchange information, services and applications in a personalized manner among information devices.
Domestic appliances
Cars
Cars
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INTERNET
Semantics
electrical. But when they reach the optical backbone they have to be converted into optical signals and then back again when they approach their destination. Eliminating this step would vastly accelerate processing. Such a step is still years away, however, because it will require development of optical switches, routers and algorithms. Nevertheless, progress is being made in that direction. For instance, a team led by John Mansbridge at Roke Manor Research has developed RipTM Core LightBus, a unique combination of optical technology with a new type of traffic
management and routing architecture that will form the core of the next generation of routers. In two years, says Mansbridge, LightBus will be capable of scaling to an unheard-of 1.3 petabits (1015) of data per sec-
ond. Thats equivalent to all the written information in all the libraries in the United States. Getting More out of Fiber. Meanwhile, researchers at Siemens Hoffmann Street campus in Munich are looking at every possible way of coaxing more information through existing fibers. Today, depending on the number of lasers used each of which produces a distinct frequency there can be up to 160 frequencies (also known as channels) in a single fiber. Each frequency now carries between 2.5 and 10 Gb/s. But, says Lankl, 40 Gb/s per wavelength is now technically feasible. In fact, we recently demonstrated this and set the world record of transmitting 7 terabits per second over a single fiber by using 176 channels, each of which carried 40 Gb/s. Furthermore, we are exploring systems that can operate at 160 to 320 Gb/s per channel. Never satisfied, Lankl and his team of researchers are focusing on even more powerful systems. On the horizon is a technology called Quadrature Phase Shift Keying (QPSK), which is well known in broadcasting, but has never been applied in an optical environment. Its a subject of considerable interest here in Munich, says Lankl, who explains that, by using gallium arsenide and lithium niobate components to modulate the intensity of laser light, the light can be horizontally or vertically polarized in a fibers electrical field. If we could do this in addition to what we can already do with optical frequency modulation, we could quadruple the number of bits transmitted per second. Concretely, that means that by using 10 Gb/s equipment, we could transmit 40 Gb/s instead of 10. Already, fiber is the norm throughout the backbone and is growing throughout the metro nets. The next step is the home. The last mile, says Lankl, is all thats standing between us and unlimited bandwidth. Once thats installed, it will withstand decades of capacity increases. Interestingly, the road from the 20th centurys old circuit-switched telephone system to the Next Generation Network with its as-yet-unimaginable spectrum of services leads right into our living rooms. Arthur F. Pease
Researchers have taken a step toward an all optical net with the development of a printed circuit board (crosssection) that combines electrical and optical interconnections.
Personal agents, customized travel routes, small talk with a computer if all this is to happen, the Internet will have to become a semantic Web, whose pages are characterized according to meaning.
In the future, the Internet will cease to be a jumble of unstructured knowledge. Instead, it will provide information tailored to each users requirements.
The Thinking Web

the Philips Research Laboratory, Block, a linguist from the Interactive Technologies department at Siemens Corporate Technology (CT) in Munich, Germany, has developed a concept that is expected to lead to a superinformed dialog system within four years. It already has a name: SInDia. SlnDia should solve the troublesome outof-domain problem of todays dialog systems. Such systems may know all the flights to Athens, for example; but they stop working when the caller leaves the flight information domain and tries to book a hotel or ask about striking taxi drivers. The goal of the SInDia concept is to include a small talk manager that actively slips interesting information into the dialog in a conversational tone the weather forecast or tips on special events in Athens, for example. At the beginning, the applications will probably be limited to predefined semantic relationships like cities/weather or automobile/car rental fees. It doesnt always have to be deadly serious, says Block. It can be fun too. In terms of technical requirements, a system of this kind is highly demanding. It must be able to scan texts, tables and interactive services like train schedules and price databases on the Web at incredibe speeds and evaluate them on the basis of their meaning. So far, it has been very costly to develop something as simple as a train-schedule service manually, says Klakow. If we automate that, we can help dialog systems get off the ground and offer far more service. This requires that the computer knows what a certain piece of information means and in what context it occurs, so that it can fit it into the dialog appropriately later on. In this connection, experts refer to a semantic Web semantics being the theory of the meaning of words and sentences. The
Good morning, Ms. Brown where will you be traveling this time? To Athens, on Tuesday, answers Cynthia. Okay, says the friendly voice on the handset, I will find a flight for you right away, but please schedule more time, because the bus and taxi drivers in Athens are on strike at the moment. Cynthia is grateful for the tip and surprised. She never would have thought the automatic reservation system could be so knowledgeable. The above conversation is, of course, fictitious but its not science fiction. Researchers around the world are working all out on portals that understand and output speech in a flexible manner, automatically identify users and provide additional information without being asked. One such researcher is Dr. Hans-Ulrich Block. Together with Dr. Dietrich Klakow from
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TODAY TOMORROW
plan is to have the programming code of Web pages include additional tags that not only provide standard information such as the publication date of a document, but also describe the meaning of the content for all the pages on the Internet, if possible. The meanings are defined in structures that are being standardized internationally: person man/woman child/adult and so forth. This would put the communication between computers and the work of search engines on an entirely new plain. An online shops terms of business, for example, could be semantically encoded in this manner. An agent a small software helper that automatically fetches information on the Web or carries out tasks for its owner (see Pictures of the Future, Fall 2001, pp. 50 59) would then not only compare list prices in various shops, but also consider other criteria, such as delivery times or warranty conditions, depending on whats important to the customer. Today, the business of tagging Web page program codes is still in its infancy and is generally done by hand Its work that many Webmasters are reluctant to do, says Block. But this method would make sense where databases already exist, as is the case with train or flight information, he adds. For new pages, there are Web editors that ask for the tag information as soon as the author inputs text. Furthermore, Block believes tagging will eventually occur automatically by using parsers programs that dissect Web copy into its grammatical constituents and use these to infer the meaning of sentence elements. The semantic Web is also an important prerequisite for a mobile Internet, since information there must be processed very differently but without distorting its meaning.
For example, up until now, images and text from the Internet have simply been reduced in size for cell phone or PDA displays. At the German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI), however, scientists are attempting to use ontology languages to put Web content into a form in which content, structure and layout are rigidly separated. A software agent could then decide to display only a short text on a wrist-phone, a small graphic on a PDA and additional photos on a notebook. To implement a plan of this sort, DFKI developed the AIA (Adaptive Internet Agent) system, which is capable of automatically simplifying, reformatting and providing linguistic descriptions of images and graphics. Media transformation takes place on the basis of content, says Wolfgang Wahlster, director of the DFKI. And Wahlsters team is going even further. In the REAL (Resource Adaptive Localization) project, it has developed an application for PDAs that uses data pertaining to changes in position and observations concerning user behavior to identify specific information that could be important for the user at any given moment. During her flight to Athens, Cynthia Brown has to change planes in Frankfurt. She takes a walk through the shopping area at the airport. The PDA knows where she is and therefore displays information or special offers from the shops. Suddenly, Cynthia hears the last call for her flight to Athens. She looks down at her PDA, which now only displays arrows that point the way to her gate. In the future, emotions and stress as well as information about shopping behavior, musi-
Researchers have developed a PDA that could be an ideal museum guide. It enhances everything its camera picks up (left), providing a 3D drawing (center) and further information (right).
cal tastes or airplane seating preferences will be analyzed while a person surfs the Internet, and stored at the ISP or in the users PDA. If the customer comes to an Internet portal or a voice response system, the content and/or the dialog will immediately be personalized. After 20 years of research, we have now developed commercially viable techniques for automatically defining personal user profiles, says Wahlster. Just as important for the mobile Internet of the future is the development of a new network structure. Despite faster transmission technologies, such as UMTS and wireless LAN, spectrum space is in short supply. One method that could be used to organize the Internet more efficiently is multicast. Thus far, data requested by a thousand users simultaneously has been sent out from the server a thousand times and distributed in a star-shaped pattern. Multicast, on the other hand, is more like a tree structure in which the data is sent only once and then duplicated en route at the appropriate nodes before being passed on to users. Peer-to-peer techniques are another possibility. These have become well known mainly through the Napster music exchange platform. In this case, the data no longer comes from a server, but is exchanged directly among users . Peer-to-peer is becoming more and more important, because people dont just want to consume; they also want to share text, music, images and their knowledge with others, says Michael Finkenzeller of Siemens Corporate Technology (CT) in Munich. In the German research network, peerto-peer applications already account for 60 percent of total data traffic. Jochen Grimminger, who also works at CT, thinks children might set up ad-hoc networks in schoolyards and exchange melodies or logos directly from cell phone to cell phone without an expensive detour through the mobile phone network. This would take some of the load off networks. Furthermore, if reception were poor, data might be passed to other cell phones that offer better connections to the network. Grimminger has considered billing models for en-
SEARCH
RESULT
RESULT
SEARCH
Agent 1 Web-pages Ontologies Agent 2
Metadata directory of tags
Tagged pages Today, searching for information on the Internet involves plowing through around a billion Web pages characterized by unstructured content (left). But in tomorrows Web, all pages will be tagged with elements that indicate their relevance. Software agents will automatically read and understand such tags, whose language will be defined by ontologies. Certain databases will automatically receive extracted tag directories, which the search agent will be able to access, thus enormously simplifying searches for particular Web sites or pages.
suring that no one is taken advantage of in multihop scenarios of this kind. Use of multihop could involve a fee. For instance, network operators could cover their costs by collecting fees for exchanging melodies in ad-hoc networks. On the other hand, those who open up their cell phones for others would collect bonus minutes of telephone time in return. In the mean time, Cynthia Brown has arrived in Athens. She uses the digicam in her PDA to take a picture of the temple that towers over the city. Shortly thereafter, Acropolis appears on the display. The photo is superimposed on a picture
that portrays the building as it may have looked 2,000 years ago. Arrows direct her to the top of the hill. This is very much in the future for the Acropolis, but it is already partly a reality at C-Lab in Paderborn, Germany, where Siemens and university scientists are conducting joint research. The basic idea is a world encyclopedia in which images serve as the input for a search engine. In Paderborn, however, this futuristic PDA scenario is now being investigated by a home appliance manufacturer to present its high-quality products in sales showrooms. And indeed, the Paderborn researchers have
come up with an appetizing solution. If the PDA with its digicam is pointed at a closed oven, the camera records a video of the oven and sends it to a computer in real time via a wireless radio network. The computer analyzes the video and uses the principle of augmented reality (see article on page 23) to generate additional image data that is superimposed with the right perspective. For example, on the display, the oven door then opens up, although it is still closed in the sales room. After a few moments, a virtual roasted chicken slowly emerges from the oven. The illusion is so perfect the customers mouth waters. Bernd Mller
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Ubiquitous Computing
Source: Fraunhofer-Verbund Mikroelektronik
In tomorrows home, objects will communicate with one another. The refrigerator will talk with the notebook, the chair with the stereo, the sweater with the cleaning robot, and so on.
Inside the All-Inclusive Network

The Internet as we know it is only the beginning. On the horizon is an all-inclusive network of communicating objects. Computing and communications will then become ubiquitous, indivisible and invisible.
A few years ago in an interview, Mark Weiser, the intellectual father of ubiquitous or pervasive computing the omnipresent computer said: Why shouldnt we obtain digital information from our environment, from things that are familiar to us? I truly believe that soon our clocks, furniture and chairs will all talk with one another over the Internet. The big problem is that today everything still runs through the PC, through this narrow channel between monitor, keyboard and mouse. Thats unnatural. Weiser, who worked as chief technologist at Xeroxs Palo Alto Research Center (PARC) in the early 1990s, wanted to be surrounded by things that think as Nicholas Negroponte, one of the guiding intellectual forces at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, once put it. Equipped with microchips, these things were supposed to communicate with one another wirelessly. Microchips were to be put in clothing, book covers, light switches, pacemakers, conveyor belts, and just about anything else of value. But Weiser, who died in 1999, made one suggestion that made his thinking things scenario particularly elegant: The best technology, he said, is invisible. In the case of wireless communication, we are not very far from achieving Weisers goal. Technologies such as Bluetooth, DECT, wireless LAN and, for greater distances, second and third generation GSM, GPRS, UMTS mobile networks (see Pictures of the Future,
Spring 2002, pages 911) are already here. The Internet is also well on its way to becoming a ubiquitous communications medium. Thanks to the TCP, IP, HTTP and HTML Internet standards, users are able to communicate with one another wherever they are. But when it comes to a universal network, availability alone is not enough. Equally important is support for the various data streams across the boundaries of individual technologies and providers. Traffic congestion in individual network nodes and errors caused by wireless technology can lead to the loss of data or delays in service. For some applications such as loading music files this might be acceptable; for others, such as video telephony, it is not. An example from telemedicine makes the problem clear. In the future, it is expected that a range of sensors in a body area network will record parameters such as blood pressure, respiration and heart rate. As researchers picture it, the data would first be stored in a hospital, retirement home or private home via radio, then processed and transmitted to a control station, doctor or provider through the fixed-line network or via satellite. But all of this presupposes reliable, real-time data transfers. Too Many Terminals. An additional challenge is the variety of terminals that are designed only for certain applications and have thus far been able to interact with one another to only a very limited degree. These range from sensors to cell phones, organizers and multimedia computers. Its a matter of using the existing heterogeneous network technologies seamlessly, says Joachim Sokol of Siemens Corporate Technology (CT) in Munich, Germany, who deals with multimedia applications capable of receiving optimal support through the network, regardless of the terminal used. Sokol primarily sees a need for action in the following areas: Todays networks do not provide optimal support for applications. For example, when a user loads a video sequence onto his or her cell phone, the image dimensions should be adjusted automatically. Today they are not. Todays information highways lack intelli-
gent traffic control systems that are able to circumvent bottlenecks and guarantee fast data transfer. Todays networks are heterogeneous and operate in isolation. This leads to different billing systems and a lack of transparency, among other things. Information should be more user-friendly. It would be helpful, for example, if a cell phone owner were informed of the rates or fees charged when moving from one network to another, such as from a cell phone network to a WLAN (wireless LAN). We have to create appropriate interfaces to overcome these barriers, says Sokol, who is convinced that ubiquitous networking will simplify our lives in the future. It wont come all at once, though. Instead, many small developments will lead us there. Small but Smart. Microsystems technology can be used to integrate a high level of computing power, as well as sensors and actua-
tors, into even the smallest objects. Fullfledged computers that fit on chips measuring only a few square millimeters and include a few kilobytes of memory enough for a simple operating system can now be manufactured at very low cost. This technology is used for chip cards as well as for embedded systems; i.e. processors installed in all types of devices for control function applications. Such systems can be found in driver-assistance systems, digital telephone exchanges and industrial equipment. But in the future, they might also turn up in jewelry, household articles or clothing. An example of ubiquitous computing is the intelligent toaster developed by Siemens researchers at Roke Manor Research in the UK. Equipped with a Web server with only a few kilobytes, it can be switched on and off via the Internet by means of a simple browser. Although some critics have dismissed the toaster as a pointless exercise, It actually stands for something else, explains
Presenting a Remote Control Conference Room

Munich, Germany. Jochen Sauter of Siemens Corporate Technology (CT) has invited several people to a presentation. The researcher from the Software and Systems Architecture department holds a PDA in his hand, welcomes guests and taps briefly on the display. Immediately, the blinds are lowered, the lights dimmed, and the display wall lights up. Sauter begins his talk, while his audience looks around in surprise. The furnishings of the room are perfectly conventional. However, participants appear to be on the receiving end of what can only be described as an object lesson in ubiquitous intelligence. Who turned the lights off and the air conditioning system on? Where is Sauters notebook? Where is his PowerPoint presentation stored? And wheres the projector? A little later Sauter reveals his secret. You are in our smart conference room, he announces. With his PDA, which has an integrated radio module, he can control the presentation server in the next room. He had saved his electronic documents on that server beforehand, along with a list containing participants e-mail addresses and other communications-related data . By pressing a button, Sauter can therefore easily transfer all of the documents to the participants computers wirelessly. In addition, a presentation scenario (lights out, blinds down, display wall on) and a discussion scenario (lights on) are stored on the server. The room itself is wired with an Instabus system. This data line for building services makes it possible to turn on the heat, operate the blinds, regulate the air conditioner, or create the appropriate lighting mood from a PDA. His conclusion: Furnishing a room in this manner is already possible with todays technology. In fact, its affordable even for a medium-sized company.
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Ubiquitous Computing
Sokol. Our colleagues at Roke Manor have demonstrated that you can make any everyday object Internet-compatible, no matter how small it is. All you need is an IP address. This means that, for instance, a hot plate left on at home could be turned off from the office. But not every appliance needs to be supplied with an Internet address. It would be
sufficient to have one for each house, apartment or housing cluster. Access to individual equipment could be managed through a gateway. Common Language. All of this isnt quite as easy as it sounds, however. New standards are needed to define how devices communiNo joke: This toaster has a built-in Web server.
Facts and Forecasts

Corporations may like to think they are part of a value chain, but in reality they are linked in a value web where collaboration with other companies even competitors is crucial to success. As a result, the corporate model of the 20th century essentially hierarchical and isolated is disintegrating. The 21st century enterprise is one embedded in a complex system of networks.
Value is no longer driven by how scarce a product, service or idea is, but rather by how many people can access it, observes Joe Forehand, CEO of Accenture, a leading global management consulting and technology services organization. The Internet is propelling enterprises toward a new open environment where success is achieved through alliances with partners, direct contact with customers and collaboration with competitors. New technology and the growing importance of intangible assets are pushing companies toward new levels of collaboration, joint ventures, alliances, outsourcing and consolidation, Forehand notes. There is a new recognition that businesses are embedded in a complex system of networks. Many of these networks are underpinned by radical developments in information and communication technologies, though the implications of these changes for the corpo- cate with one another, points out Holger Kfner, an embedded systems expert with Siemens CT. Kfner is referring not only to household appliances, but also to the larger field of industry, where Siemens researchers have to slog through a maze of processors, memory chips, bus types and operating systems, many of which have their own software solutions. Furthermore, these components are subject to performance increases and expanded functions, all of which adds up to increased complexity. The problem with all of this is that we dont have a common embedded-systems language, notes Kfner. But thats not all. Security questions will loom larger than ever as embedded components become part and parcel of our lives. After all, interlinked sensors and processors make it possible to record more and more information from the personal environment. Ubiquitous computing would, in principle, make it possible to create detailed pictures of each persons interests, affinities and weaknesses. Today, IT monitoring can provide only snapshots of what we do, where we go and what we buy. But in a world of ubiquitous computing, the picture could be far more complete. The distinction between online and offline would fade to insignificance. Could people opt out of the ubiquitous network? How can abuse be prevented? How can effective identification and authentication be achieved without compromising privacy? According to Sokol, providers, manufacturers and service companies will have to overcome these challenges together over the next few years. Evdoxia Tsakiridou
Body area network: wearable computers / displays
Office network
The intelligent home
Total U.S. Internet Traffic

(Log Scale)
Vehicle network Supermarket, etc.
Online at anytime. In the future, portable and wearable communication devices, computers and displays will ensure convenient mobile connections to our homes, offices and vehicles.
100 Pbps 10 Pbps 1 Pbps 100 Tbps 10 Tbps 1 Tbps 100 Gbps 10 Gbps 1 Gbps 100 Mbps 10 Mbps 1 Mbps 100 Kbps 10 Kbps 1 Kbps 100 bps 10 bps
petabits per second
Source: Fraunhofer-Verbund Mikroelektronik
terabits per second

Source: Caspian Networks, Dr. Larry Roberts
gigabits per second
megabits per second
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Networked Seniors
The concept of smart homes has probably been taken farthest by Elite Care Oatfield Estates, a luxurious retirement facility in Milwaukie, Oregon. Here, the vision of the ubiquitous computer has become reality. According to Elite Care, the company provides help for older people and an early warning system that can prevent accidents. Each of 120 apartments is outfitted with memory chips and sensors. If a resident reaches for water, the action is registered by sensors on the glass. The time and the quantity of water taken are transmitted to a central office in order to protect the person from dehydration. Residents wear electronic tags, so their locations can be determined on a digital floor plan in emergency situations. Beds have sensors too, monitoring weight and movement. When a resident gets up, the lights go on. Beds can also be programmed to wake a person with a weak bladder during the night so that he or she can go to the bathroom. And the principle of comprehensive monitoring applies to what is excreted as well. Toilet lids measure pulse and temperature and determine whether the user has had enough to drink. www.elite-care.com
U.S. Internet traffic has been increasing exponentially. In fact, from 1997 to 2000 it increased at 280% per year. According to Larry Roberts, one of the founders of the ARPANET, it has been increasing at 400% per year since then.
Growth of Worldwide Electronic Commerce

In billions of U.S. dollars
Rest of world $28.2 Western Europe $246.3 Asia-Pacific $341.6 Total $2,293.5
Western Europe $2,458.6
Rest of world $264.1
Total $12,837.3
Over the next four years, worldwide e-commerce is expected to sextuple to almost 13 trillion dollars representing nearly one-fifth of total sales worldwide.
2002
2006
North America $1,677.3
Asia-Pacific $2,645.6
North America $7,469.0
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Source: Forrester Research, Inc.
INTERNET
Interview
Wireless vs Wired Connections

connections (in millions)
North America
200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
ration go well beyond the technological. Indeed, collaboration across networks is not only a must; it is also a key lever in increasing shareholder value. Accenture research shows that between 1997 and 2000, the typical large company formed 177 alliances. It also found that about one-quarter of corporations expect alliances to account for more than 40 percent of their market value by 2004. New Economy Versus Now Economy. Effective collaboration requires companies within the value web to be able to interact and exchange enormous amounts of data. Be it the integration of acquisitions or supply chain process integration with customers in areas such as demand forecasting, collaboration translates into dollars, notes Caspar
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Western Europe
users to get real-time interactive experiences via the Web through disposable code programs they use once and throw away. The X-Internet will allow business to deliver an experience that is far more interactive, immersive and connected. The experience will be far more enjoyable and translate into a richer and more profitable form of online commerce, Colony predicts. Moreover, the X-Internet will also make use of low-cost embedded microprocessors and sensors to revolutionize commerce and allow an increasing number of business processes to take place without human intervention. The scope of B2B interactions today is restricted to people and IT systems. But the extended X-Internet will allow companies to interface with their own and their partners supply network assets, says Colony.
Envisioning Tomorrows Teranet

In tomorrows Internet, tens of terabits will flash through an all-optical system, bringing us a spectrum of affordable communication services ranging from unicasting to video telephony. Virtually everyone stands to benefit. What's your vision of the Next Generation Internet? My vision is of an Internet you can bet your life on. It will be everything the current Internet is not quick, reliable, inexpensive, robust and scalable. I believe these goals can be met. But probably the best solution is to start over. When the U.S. government decided to build the Interstate Highway System, it left the old roads in place, while adding an entirely new set of highways. In your opinion, will the Next Generation Internet be ubiquitous? Yes. That is, every person on the planet will have access to a computer. In addition, every device on the planet will be able to intercommunicate. It is entirely possible that within ten years information and computing power will be as ubiquitous and inexpensive as electricity is today. How do you manage such a system and keep it from failing? The Next Generation Internet must be able to monitor, diagnose and repair itself. IBM, for instance, recently introduced an acrossthe-board initiative called Autonomic Systems that is geared to developing Internet software that can regulate itself in the same way our nervous systems regulate heart beat and hormones. What would a new Internet cost? The price tag is surprisingly low. When you build an interstate road system, every mile costs around $30 million. But a mile of fiberoptic line costs less than $500,000, and as little as $50,000 if you can feed it into an existing conduit. Furthermore, that kind of high-bandwidth connection could eliminate half of the travel on our physical roads. But the problem is not creating the global wide area backbone infrastructure, its the economics of getting that high bandwidth connection into every home and office the socalled last mile problem. Is any organization equipped to do that? The existing incumbents have no desire to spend any more money because they are all in financial trouble. That leaves the government. The U.S. government should build the Next Generation Internet as it did the Interstate Highways; but in this case because no one wants to have the government managing the Internet it should hand over the results of its work to the private sector and then collect a fee of, say, ten percent of the revenues on the resulting value-added services . What benefits do you foresee? There will be so much bandwidth that we will be able to replace broadcasting with unicasting. Anyone will be able to have any information product they want at any time. But that changes the old business model for music, books, movies, software and every other information product. The current markets will disappear for all the information products that can be converted to bits. That is a threat to many powerful lobbies.
300 250 200 150 100 50
Wireless or wired
Internet? According to the number of connections, wireless is the clear favorite. Forrester Research sees a gap between the number of todays Internet users and the far greater number of potentially networkable chips a gap the X-Internet could bridge.
Potential for Ubiquitous Networking

93 million 407 million Internet computers Internet users
Source: Forrester Research, Inc.
663 million 1.5 billion 30 billion
Automobiles Telephones Chips
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Asia-Pacific
250 200 150 100 50

Source: Ovum, London
2003 Fixed Internet Access BB Internet Access Mobile Data
2004
2005
2006
2007
Fixed Internet includes narrowband and broadband connections. Broadband Internet includes all BB fixed access connections such as DSL, cable modems, optical fiber, and BB fixed wireless. Mobile data includes all types of data services including SMS and Internet browsing.
Herzberg, Accenture Senior Consultant for Supply Chain Management. A recent study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has found that good customer-supplier collaboration and making relevant information available via the Internet offers savings of between 40 to 70 percent in inventory costs for the total supply chain. Whats more, experts expect that over the coming decade the Internet will enable dynamic and rich real-time collaboration between businesses. Forrester Research CEO George Colony foresees an X-Internet characterized by scores of new technologies. This next-generation Internet will allow
In essence, what this boils down to is twoway communication with objects. With this increasingly likely scenario in mind, the Auto-ID Center, an industry-funded research program based at MIT, and the Institute for Manufacturing in Cambridge, England, are working with over 50 blue-chip sponsors to design, build, test and deploy the global infrastructure that will allow computers and objects to interact instantly. Says Colony, The X-Internet will be far more pervasive than todays Internet. Eventually, it will be as much a part of the environment as the air we breathe and the water we drink. Peggy Salz
Dr. Raj Reddy (65) is the Herbert A. Simon University Professor of Computer Science and Robotics in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. He served as the founding Director of the Robotics Institute from 1979 to 1991 and the Dean of the School of Computer Science from 1991 to 1999. He is a member of the National Academy of Engineering and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, was President of the American Association for Artificial Intelligence from 1987 to 1989, and served as Co-Chair of the President's Information Technology Advisory Committee from 1999 to 2001.
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INTERNET
Interview
INTERNET
Society
Is this a Catch-22? Not really, because well get there anyway. Its a revolution that cannot be stopped. But it can be slowed. That is, if we dont do anything, it will still happen over the next 25 to 30 years. But if we work proactively, we might have it in ten years. You were the Co-Chair of the Presidents Information Technology Advisory Committee from 1999 to 2001. Does Washington have a vision of tomorrows Internet? I believe there is a vision. But the problem is that no one has been authorized to put the question of the next generation, secure, selfhealing Internet on the front burner. Specifically, what needs to be done to fulfill the promise of the Next Generation Internet? We have to light up the fiber thats already in
the ground. Take Qwest. Theyve installed about 20,000 route miles of fiber in the U.S., each mile of which has about 100 fibers. But theyve only lit up one fiber per mile. Why? Because the cost of lighting up one fiber depending on the size of the network it serves may be anywhere from $250 million to $500 million. Is part of the solution to this what Siemens is doing in other words to increase the bandwidth of a single fiber? Absolutely. We already have commercial systems that can carry 3.2 terabits per second on a single fiber. Thats 3,200 gigabits per second. And systems have been tested in labs that can carry 10 or 20 terabits per second. Thats an opportunity and a problem because, at that level, a single fiber can carry all the worlds phone calls. So now you have this huge investment in installed fiber but no use for it until you create applications that economically put it to use. What applications do you foresee? In six months we will have a fiber to our campus here in Pittsburgh and the future that you and I have been discussing will be here. We want to build the killer apps video conferencing, video phones, video email, video on demand. You name it. All of that can be done yesterday. How do you get the ball rolling? The most important thing the phone and equipment companies can do is to turn all their lobbying efforts toward convincing governments to invest in this technology. And then, just as with the highway system, other industries will be created. They will be tomorrows equivalent of the motel and gas station chains of the last century. And the price tag? About $100 billion for the U.S. And I estimate that as little as $10 billion would give us 90 percent of the impact. That would jump-start the entire communications industry and put entirely new business areas on the map. Interview conducted by Arthur F. Pease
Number of Host Computers (in millions) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Internet Transmission Capacity (in Bits per Second) 1010 Fiber optic cable 109 = 1 Gbps (per frequency) 108 107 1,000,000 = 1 Mbps 100,000 10,000 1,000 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 Modem Source: Ray Kurzweil
Crossing
The gap between technological haves and have-nots is a complex and persistent problem. Solving it holds great promise for the future.
the Digital Divides

It is the age-old story of the haves and the have-nots. Those fortunate enough to be on the have side of the tracks seemingly have it all. Food, shelter, clothing, and many of lifes amenities, such as automobiles, televisions, telephones, and, most recently, computers and Internet access. But for the have-nots, the recent advent of information technology (IT) just adds to the list of things they do not have. The chasm between the digital haves and have-nots has come to be known as the digital divide. First coined in the mid-1990s, the term originally described the gap between men in the U.S., who were the predominant users of the Internet, and their spouses, many of whom felt like Internet widows thanks to the amount of time their husbands spent online. Since then, the online gender gap has been closed in the U.S., but the situation is quite different in other parts of the world. Urban planner Lisa Servon, author of a recent book on the digital divide, notes that women account for just 25 percent of Internet users in Brazil, 17 percent in Japan and South Africa, and 16 percent in Russia. Yet the gender divide is only one part of a complex picture, which is why Servon says, I like to talk about digital divides, plural, because they are multiple. On a global basis there is the digital divide between developed and developing nations. Ninety percent of Internet host computers reside in the highest income nations. These same nations are home to only sixteen percent of the worlds population, notes Servon, whose book, Bridging the Digital Divide: Technology, Community and Public Policy, was released in August 2002. Representing one end of the spectrum in the global community are the Scandinavian countries, particularly Finland. But in poorer countries the picture is not so bright. The average Internet user in South Africa has an income seven times the national average, notes Servon, while the average Bangladeshi would have to spend more than eight years income to buy a computer, compared with
An Internet connection in every home? Not quite. But more and more people in the Third World have access.
The number of host computers those that contain Web pages and the software that controls them is skyroketing (above). Meanwhile, Internet backbone bandwidth is doubling every 12 months. The problem is how to bridge the last mile. To do so, cashstrapped carriers will need a government investment program.
just one months salary for the average American. In addition to the divide between nations, digital divides exist between the educated and uneducated, the wealthy and poor, the old and the young, between Blacks and Latinos, and Caucasians; and between people in rural areas and inner cities, and those in urban and suburban areas. Of all of the divides, the greatest is between Blacks and Latinos, and Caucasians and Asians. Though that gap is closing, There are still about 18 percentage points between Whites and either Blacks or Latinos in the U.S., says Servon, who is Associate Professor at the Milano Graduate School of Management and Urban Policy at New School University, Manhattan. Efforts to address the digital divide in the U.S. began in 1995, when the first of a series of U.S. Department of Commerce reports called Falling Through the Net, pointed out the disparity between the digitally active and those who had no access to IT. The immediate result was the creation of a federal pro-
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INTERNET
Society
Digital Divides in Gender, Income, Education and Race

Households with Computers (Values for USA, Aug. 2000) Individuals with Internet (Values for USA, Nov. 2001)
I n
Established businesses can help bring their upcoming counterparts into the fold by funding and promoting programs that narrow the digital divide. The business community really needs to embrace this as an issue in terms of contributing to efforts, whether it be in school systems or through their own training programs, says Servon. For instance, working with a number of African counties, Siemens Belgium has developed Euclides, a project to train technicians and engineers via the Internet. With the help of government and industry, recent innovations may well allow poorer nations to leapfrog into 21st century technology. Because of wireless technology it is not necessary for these countries to go through the progression of first getting wired telephone service, and then moving on to digital and wireless technology, says Servon. Instead, they may go straight to wireless Internet connections. Servon sees the Internet as having great potential for increasing prosperity, for those in less-developed countries, by giving them access to the global marketplace. In order to benefit from globalization, however, people need to be able to control the tools that enabled global markets to develop in the first place, she says. When it comes to world peace, the future is less clear. It certainly creates a lot more opportunity for communication, which is one of the prerequisites for understanding and, therefore, peace. But, says Servon, weve also seen lots of destructive uses of technology and communication that hinder peace efforts. Which way the Internet will take us remains to be seen, but if only part of the world moves in that direction, we will never get there. Victor Chase
B r i e f
Within 15 years, a Next Generation Network (NGN) will deliver a spectrum of services based on high-bandwidth (overwhelmingly optical) communication systems that will be as ubiquitous and inexpensive as electricity is today. The NGN will allow speech and moving images to be transmitted affordably and flexibly in real time and with a level of quality currently possible only with dedicated lines. The technology will work by transmitting these real-timedependent services as prioritized data packets. The NGN will automatically manage itself as well as its data traffic. Siemens is developing technologies in each of these areas. Video over DSL (digital subscriber line) is widely expected to be the next killer application. The technology will allow users to obtain television programs over a telephone line, in addition to Internet, videophone and fax services. Siemens set the current world record of over 7,000 gigabits per second (Gbps) over a single fiber. This was achieved by using 176 channels, each of which carried 40 Gbps. If an all-optical system could be completed, including fiber to the home, there would be virtually no limit to what could be transmitted. In the future, nearly every object will have its own Internet address and will therefore be capable of communication. To accomplish this, new standards will be necessary. IP Version 6, for instance, envisions something like 100 million addresses per capita worldwide. Changes in Web programming will usher in a semantic Web. Search functions will find information based on meaning. With the help of software agents, the users experience with the Web will become increasingly personalized. Phones, computers and other appliances will recognize users and automatically connect them to their own databases. Internet service provider interfaces will reflect the individual preferences and interests of users and will automatically expand or contract bandwidth depending on the service(s) the user needs. CONTACTS Siemens AG Dr. Hans-Ulrich Block, CT IC 5 Fax: +49 89 636-49802 hans-ulrich.block@siemens.com Dr. Holger Herzog, CT IC 2 Fax: +49 89 636-51115 holger.herzog@siemens.com Dr. Stefan Hink Fax: +49 89 722-58877 stefan.hink@siemens.com Prof. Cornelis Hoogendoorn Fax: +49 89 722-27284 cornelis.hoogendoorn@siemens.com Dr. Holger Kfner, CT SE 2 Fax 49 89 636-45450 holger.kuefner@siemens.com Dr. Berthold Lankl, ICN Fax: +49 89 722-41680 berthold.lankl@siemens.com Dr. Hermann Rodler Fax: +49 89 722-35098 hermann.rodler@siemens.com Dr. Joachim Sokol Fax: +49 89 636-51115 joachim.sokol@siemens.com Prof. Raj Reddy, CMU Pittsburgh rr@cmu.edu Prof. Wolfgang Wahlster, DFKI wolfgang.wahlster@dfki.de LINKS Siemens Information and Communication Networks: www.siemens.com/icn German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence: www.dfki.de National Coordination Office for Information Technology Research and Development: www.itrd.gov/iwg/pca/lsn.html Internet2 Industry Association: www.internet2.edu World's Leading Resource for Internet Trends & Statistics: www.nua.ie/surveys LITERATURE Servon, Lisa, J., Bridging the Digital Divide: Technology, Community and Public Policy, Blackwell (August, 2002) Gralla, Preston, How the Internet Works, Que; 6th edition (September, 2001) Miller, P. E., Miller, Mark A., Implementing Ipv6: Supporting the Next Generation Internet Protocols, John Wiley & Sons; 2nd edition (March, 2000)
Access Isnt Enough. The success of these programs is evidenced by the fact that we have seen a huge increase in the number of people who have Internet access, notes Servon. Yet despite these successes, the digital divide continues to grow on a worldwide basis. Compounding the problem is the fact that gaining access to the Internet is just the first step in closing the gap. Obtaining appropriate training, and being able to locate relevant information are equally important. Yet policy makers have not really recognized that a problem exists beyond access, says Servon. Hence, it is in these areas that she sees the greatest challenges for the future. Substantiating this point are studies of how school children use the Web. Were finding that kids in low-income districts do more things like rote math and spelling drills, which dont use technologys potential all that much, while kids in wealthier districts are doing much more creative thinking and problem solving and communicating with kids in other countries, says Servon. Regarding content, Servon points out English is used in almost 80 percent of Web sites, yet less than one in ten people in the world speaks the language. When I think about the ramifications for the future, I think about people who are part of the persistent poor not being able to get out, says Servon. One way technology can help is by imparting power. Access and training enables people to create their own content, and with content they can organize. Internet access also enables participation in e-commerce, both as customers and entrepreneurs. Servon, who works with low-income, small business owners, tells of many who are in remote rural areas or inner cities, yet can market their goods over the Internet.
86.3 %
Ge
gram that successfully subsidized the connection of most of the nations schools and libraries to the Internet. Then came an array of follow-up programs intended to provide support for other organizations, such as community technology centers to help address the digital divide. Similar organizations sprouted up in other countries.
51.0 % General Population
57.6 %
58.2 %
57.1 %
M al e
ra
77.7 %
19.2 % Income
$1 U 5, nd 00 er 0 $7 5, 00 0 +
12.7 %
$1 U 5, nd 00 er 0 $7 5, 00 0 +
60.3 % 18.2 % Education

hi Le gh ss sc tha ho n So ol m e co lle ge
63.8 % 25.9 %
hi Le gh ss sc tha ho n So ol m e co lle ge
Fe m
ne
al e
55.7 % 32.6 %
65.6 % 33.7 % 46.1 % 23.5 %
56.8 % 23.6 %
Sources: Computer data from US Department of Commerce (2000), Internet data from Pew Internet and American Life Project (unpublished)
Race
Internet Connections: Comparison USA Other Countries

Cost Comparison Internet connections as a percentage of monthly income (100 %) (100 %) Male 50.5% Female 49.5 %
US A St Ara at b es
278 %
Pa As ci ian fic Isl Am an er de ./ r Hi sp an ic
Gender
P a As ci ian fic Isl Am an er de ./ r Hi sp an ic
ac k
hi
hi
Bl
Bl
ac k
te
te
(100 %) Male 96 % Female 4%
1.2 %
US A Ne pa l
Lisa J. Servon is the author of Bridging the Digital Divide: Technology, Community and Public Policy. The book was released in August
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FEATURES
CargoMover
The German town of Wegberg-Wildenrath is home to an extensive railroad network belonging to the Siemens Transportation Systems Groups (TS) railroad vehicle test center. The facility, the most modern of its kind anywhere, has been expanded over the past five years, and is the place to witness the latest in rail design concepts. Whether it be a highspeed ICE 3 train, a subway for Southeast Asia, a Desiro-type regional train destined for Great Britain or a Combino, the worlds most successful streetcar, all wind up in Wildenrath for a thorough check before they head for the customers tracks. Technicians here are used to innovations. But on this bright September day, a train parked on one of the most distant tracks has aroused even their curiosity: the CargoMover, the first fully automatic freight car. Franz Mairhofer, a Siemens engineer and Director of Cargo Logistics at TS, uses a key to activate a control panel on a large display at the front of the vehicle. He taps in a destination, steps aside, and within seconds
mantled or scheduled for reduced maintenance. But the consequences of these events add up to major problems for motorists and the environment. Even more trucks are likely to congest roads, causing billions of dollars worth of delays. The details are revealing, says Mairhofer. In Germany, 80 percent of all goods are transported locally or regionally. In other words, they travel a maximum of 200 kilometers. In view of this, the CargoMover would be an ideal alternative to the truck in this sector. CargoMover needs no driver, makes the most of gaps in the regular timetable, can carry as much cargo as at least two trucks (up to 60 tons, depending on design), is available around the clock and holds
Railroad Vehicle Technology at the RWTH (mechanical systems), the University of Brunswick (computer technology), Siemens TS in Brunswick and Erlangen, Germany (braking systems, signal boxes), the Siemens Information and Communication Mobile Group (GSM-Rail digital mobile radio network) and Siemens Corporate Technology (CT) in Munich (sensor technology). CargoMover uses data from a wide range of sensors, says Hartmut Scherer-Winner, who is responsible for coordinating project activities at CT. Five radar sensors observe what is going on up to 70 meters ahead, calculate distances to objects and the relative speeds of other trains. Meanwhile, a video camera follows the course of the track.
to the European Train Control System (ETCS). The ETCS makes it possible to drive automatically, because it transmits route information such as train signals, speed limits, and track status indications directly to the vehicle, says Scherer-Winner. An engineer (driver) is not necessary because ETCS also transmits train braking and control signals. This means that headquarters knows exactly which trains are where an important prerequisite for optimized logistics. But all this on a commercial basis at least is still years away. Although the introduction of ETCS is planned across Europe, its implementation is expected to take several years. Switzerland is spearheading developments. Deutsche Bahn (the German rail sys-
Laser scanner 1 (swiveling) Left-hand radar sensor 3 central radar sensors Right-hand radar sensor
Video camera
The Automatic Freight Car

Driverless freight cars could help shift traffic from congested roads to integrated rail networks. The first demonstration vehicle of this sort, the CargoMover, is being jointly developed and tested by several Siemens Groups together with external partners.
CargoMover is ready to roll. A horn sounds and the freight car, which is driven by a powerful diesel engine, sets off on its own accord, accelerates to a speed of some 90 kilometers per hour and disappears into the woods. A little later, the CargoMover approaches the loading ramp that Mairhofer entered as its destination and decelerates. Suddenly, its horn emits a shrill blast as its sensors register a canister on the tracks. As the object makes no attempt to move, the freight car comes to a stop at a safe distance from it. Only after an employee has removed the obstacle does the car set off again, heading for the loading ramp, where a truck is waiting to hoist a container onto the CargoMover.
Driverless freight cars could one day make a significant contribution toward shifting traffic from the road back to the rail network, says Mairhofer, explaining the aims of the CargoMover development project. Today, he continues, the trend is completely in the opposite direction. According to estimates from the German Federal Ministry of Transport and the 2002 Prognos European Transport Reports, freight transport in the European Union (EU) and other European countries that have applied for membership is expected to increase by 40 to 50 percent by 2015. That corresponds to an increase in the volume of goods being transported from 500 billion ton-kilometers in 2002 to 700 billion in 2015. But at the same time, the market share of rail-based freight transport is sinking rapidly. When compared with road, ship and pipeline, railbased freight transports share of the market has fallen in the EU from 32.6 percent in 1970 to 14.1 percent in 1998. This downward trend is set to continue as a growing number of unprofitable lines are either dis-
Laser scanner 2 (just above the track)
Automatic driving requires sophisticated sensor technology. A video camera identifies obstacles (left) and follows the track (center). Radar sensors look up to 70 meters ahead, and laser scanners allow accurate switching.
the potential of making secondary lines economical once again. In short, With governmental support, the CargoMover concept would prove worthwhile for both the economy in general and for shippers. From a technical point of view, CargoMover has moved forward without a hitch. Less than two years after the project was launched by Prof. Fritz Frederich of the Technical University of Rheinland-Westfalia (RWTH) in Aachen, Germany and Hans M. Schabert, a Member of the Siemens TS Board, a demo freight car was operational. The technology is an outstanding example of the Network of Innovation within Siemens and with its external partners. Among those involved in the project were the Institute for
When combined with vehicle speed information, the data from this camera can be used to derive three-dimensional information about obstacles on the track. Two infrared laser scanners one works at track height and the other swivels from side to side, scanning the area in front of the CargoMover ensure that the car can maneuver with extreme accuracy. A standard industrial PC is all thats needed to combine and evaluate the data, says Scherer-Winner. This means that CargoMover can move independently. But to ensure that it can also make use of timetables and integrate itself into overall logistics, it needs a means of communicating with headquarters for example, via the GSM/R network and a link
tem operator) expects to receive system authorization for ETCS in late 2004. However, things move slowly in the world of railroad technology. If we want to have CargoMover commercially operational by 2010, we have to get things moving now, stresses Mairhofer. This means that countless obstacles have to be overcome before shipping companies can order CargoMovers as readily as they order trucks today. Private rail companies seeking new business opportunities could play a pioneering role in this regard. CargoMover would also be suitable for factory transportation and for freight transport in harbors or between city centers and airports, both of which are currently dominated by trucks. Ulrich Eberl
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ROBOTS
Scenario 2020
Servants that Never Sleep

If youve always wished you could get reliable and affordable household help, youve got something to look forward to. In a few years, service robots will perform a wide variety of tasks. Theyll clean windows, serve beverages, empty the dishwasher and more. And theyll enable older people to live at home longer.
2020
Theyll carry our luggage, load our cars, help out in the kitchen, and nurse us when were sick. Theyll even entertain us, teach us how to play tennis and bring us a wealth of information regardless of where we are. In the future, intelligent robots always friendly and never impatient will perform a spectrum of activities that will help make life a breeze.
Eltville, Germany, fall 2020. The swift little robots rustle the leaves as they hurry up and down the rows of vines, carefully picking clusters of ripe grapes. The rush is on now with the grape harvest, because a long rainy spell is forecast to start tomorrow. The vintners cant run the risk of letting the grapes get moldy, because theyre sure that 2020 will be a superb vintage! The stock price of the Rheingau Wine Investment Fund is already soaring to a record high. There you are at last! Christine Dost hugs her son Peter and his young family. I
apologize, mom, but the sales rep for the new Multi-Rob stopped by. You know, thats a great gadget! A robot for everything! Cleaning windows, mopping floors, vacuuming carpets, serving beverages. There are all sorts of accessories too, anything you could ask for. Just what you always wanted, right? But Peters mom isnt impressed. Ive already got so many of those little helpers in the house. I dont need another one, she says. Peter grins a little at this. Its always the same with his parents at their age you get a little set in your ways. But hes sure that when Multi-Rob
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Scenario 2020
ROBOTS
Cooperative Navigation Systems
rings the doobell at Christmas, wearing a winning smile plus a ribbon and bow around its metallic midriff, theyll be thrilled. A transporter robot glides past them with the familys suitcases on its way into the house. I want one of those! exclaims little Elizabeth Dost, pointing at a Robo-Doggy another young girl is proudly walking on a leash nearby. Why dont you all come in, Christine says. Grandpa will be down in a minute to join us. Upstairs, Marcus Dost is just getting out of the bath, assisted by an intelligent wheelchair. Hes been having a lot of problems using his legs. Without help, Christine wouldnt be able to take care of Marcus any more. But its been working out well so far, thanks to the little robot helpers. The wheelchair transports Markus to the living room downstairs smoothly, gently, safely and automatically. It has effortlessly memorized the route during its initial orientation tour. As the visitors enter the living room, a Siromob emerges from the kitchen one of those almost humanoid robots with a rounded head and very agile arms. Because of its noiseless piezo motors, the Dosts didnt immediately notice this electronic assistant despite its height of almost five feet. But there has never been an accident, since this very smart robot with its sensors and neurocognitive system appraises any situation in an instant. If Christine or anyone else should approach it too closely, it will announce its presence with visual signals or verbally and will also maneuver skillfully to avoid her. The Dost family is having a nice time visiting. Siromob is serving cake. I want the biggest piece, insists Dominic. No, I do, retorts his twin sister Elizabeth. Siromob seems confused, not knowing who should get the largest piece, then decides to give it to Dominic, who has asked for it again. We have a reason to celebrate, Peters wife Karen announces. You remember last year we bought Rheingau Wine Investment Fund shares? Yesterday we sold them at an enormous profit. But the Dosts arent the only ones celebrating in this charming little wine-growing town. A group of very merry tourists is passing by outside on its way to the next winery. Their guide, a humanoid, biped robot, is
pointing out the sights and teaching them all they want to know about viticulture. If they have any questions in any language their guide generally understands them and is pleased to answer. Only near the end of such tours does it tend to get a little vague, because, after several tastings, the guests are beginning to speak less than distinctly. Weve got a surprise for you. Look whos here! announces Christine. Its Melanie Dost, Peters sister, and she looks pretty exhausted. She has tried for the umpteenth time to beat her opponent at tennis. Hi everybody! Ill just go and freshen up a bit. That mechanical jock has beat me again. Next time Ill select level 4. At level 5 and against two rackets I just cant win. Her tennis partner doesnt need a break. Its a sports robot equipped with a special fuel-cell system that ensures its always ready for the next game. Siromob, would you please bring me a glass of water? Melanie is back and flops onto the couch. In a minute the robot returns, handing her the glass. You know, I cant imagine how people ever got along without robots. Big deal, Peter teases her. Youve always been good at getting out of doing housework. Here we go again! laughs Christine. Siromob runs into a problem when its supposed to get orange juice for the twins. None is left. It looks sad as it tells the kids about it. Karen puts her coffee down and gets up: Ill run down to the gas station and get some juice. I need to refill the cars fuel cell anyway. And shes out the door. Siromob almost looks a little relieved! Say, Grandma, does it really have any feelings? Elizabeth wants to know. No, it doesnt. But who knows, maybe in a few years it will. As she arrives at the gas station, Karen is pleased to see that the orange juice is being brought to the car. Thoughtful of Siromob to send a message, she thinks. She stretches luxuriously in the seat of her new car and selects one of her favorite songs from the display, which is immediately downloaded from the Internet. She smiles dreamily as she watches a robot refill her fuel cell and her sound system starts playing In the year 2525 by Zager & Evans, one of those golden oldies from over 50 years ago. Ulrike Zechbauer
Self-propelled autonomous service robots have been cleaning the floors of several supermarkets with a high degree of reliability for the last three years. The robots are piloted by SINAS, the worlds most advanced robotic navigation system. At Siemens, researchers are now working on systems that will allow these machines to work together as teams.
Ever reliable, autonomous cleaning machines produce smiles as well as sparkling clean floors.
Mr.Clean
Reports for Service

The vacuum cleaner robots that have recently entered the market must feel as lost as a captain without a compass. Tirelessly focused on cleaning carpets, they wander about aimlessly in private households. After about an hours work, they head for their recharging stations; then, after a short interlude, these fully automatic helpers are set for action again. Unfortunately, they dont have a clue about which areas they have already cleaned and which ones still need to be cleaned. But not all robots are created equal. When it comes to the ST82 R, which is guided by a SINAS navigation system, things are very different. Shoppers at the Albert Heijn B.V. chain of supermarkets in the Netherlands are more than a little surprised when a big floorbot asks them politely to step aside, saying something like: Excuse me, but Id like to clean the floor here. The robot has been navigating the supermarkets aisles on its own, polishing the floors to a gleaming sparkle since the fall of 1999. The ST82 R was developed jointly by Hefter Cleantech and Siemens. It has taken years of development work to perfect the intelligent pilot, says Project Manager Gisbert Lawitzky, a member of the Intelligent Autonomous Systems Department at Siemens Corporate Technology in Munich, Germany. The idea and initial prototypes of SINAS, which stands for Siemens Navigation System for Autonomous Service Robots, originated at our research laboratories in Munich. SINAS was then developed to the product stage in
collaboration with the Siemens Automation and Drives Group. Today, our system is the worlds most advanced navigation aid for self-propelled machines, says Lawitzky. SINAS is useful not only for cleaning, but also for all types of transportation tasks. To navigate successfully, the pilot system must always know where it is and if there are any obstacles to avoid. SINAS achieves this by using sensors that supply it with continuous information regarding its position and immediate environment. Seeing and Being Seen. Laser scanners and ultrasound systems serve as ST82 Rs eyes. They enable cleaning robots to reliably detect persons or shopping carts in their paths, and to slow down or stop in time, explains Lawitzky. If there is no response to a request to step aside, the robot skillfully maneuvers around the obstacle and then returns to its route. Sensor signals are processed in the machines brain, a controller that performs complex computational processes. The software weve developed evaluates all incoming environmental information 20 times per sec-
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Simulations show a team of robots cleaning a supermarket in Bussum (The Netherlands). The area is divided into cells of similar size. When the communications radii of two robots intersect (right picture), the robots communicate which cells have already been cleaned and which ones still need to be tackled (white area). The strategy is designed to avoid redundant work.
ond and issues situation-specific commands to the machines steering mechanism in realtime, reports Lawitzky. Aside from determining its position and reacting to possible problem situations, the robot of course occupies itself with its primary task of scrubbing and drying the floor. Furthermore, I should add that its secondary job is to attract attention as an advertising medium: As it moves among shoppers, the robot announces advertising messages, plays music and displays advertisements. Before it can be released for independent operation, the service robot must get to know its working environment. This learning process is directed by a human coach, who initially guides the robot through the area it will be expected to clean. Whats so special about SINAS is the fact that it doesnt need any external navigational aids, such as reflective strips or guide wires, says Lawitzky. The robot collects the initial location data through special odometers mounted on its axles and with the aid of a gyrocompass, which provides continuous estimates of its orientation. Since these data are too imprecise, an apprentice robot continuously records additional information about its position by scanning its environment and memorizing readily recognizable structures such as sections of walls, shelves and columns. Once this phase has been com-
pleted, the machine automatically combines such landmarks in a map that aids it in its autonomous locomotion. During a second guided tour, the coach explains which areas the robot is expected to clean and which are off-limits. It never even gets to see certain areas. During autonomous operation, the robot follows exactly the same paths it was shown initially provided, of course, it doesnt encounter obstacles. During its progress, it continuously compares the route it has memorized with with its current route by visualizing its environment and comparing it with a stored map. New Worlds. Smart cleaning robots are currently employed mainly in supermarkets. But theyre entirely capable of exploring other
This mobile experimental robot scans its surroundings by using eight eyes that conceal ultrasound sensors. A sixth eye is a laser scanner (black box with the greenish light). The box above it contains a gyrocompass. A controller (gray box at rear) and SINAS handle navigation.
new worlds, such as airports, railroad stations, factories, trade fair centers and hospitals. According to a study by the International Federation of Robotics, more than 3,000 cleaning robots will be carrying out tasks in non-domestic applications by 2005 (see page 64). But cleaning an entire airport terminal would be expecting a bit much of a single robot. Such a job would have to be shared by a team and that means that each member would have to know exactly what tasks it was expected to perform. Just as with a human team, the work would progress as efficiently as possible. The good news is that the sort of problems that tend to complicate or disrupt teamwork among humans dont seem to undermine tcooperation among robots. Thats the conclusion of research scientists at the Department of Intelligent Autonomous Systems at Siemens Corporate Technology in Munich, Germany. Pilot projects with three mobile test robots named R, G and B have demonstrated that the robots can perform cleaning jobs as a team while skillfully avoiding collisions. This ballet is choreographed and directed by ABCHOR, which stands for Agent Based Control Architecture for Heterogeneous Open Robot Communities. The basic idea is that each robot is controlled by a number of software agents, and each of these agents is assigned to a particular task. When it comes to navigation issues, for instance, there is a SINAS-based Navigation Agent, explains Markus Jger, an information scientist. There is also a GoalAgent that tells the NavigationAgent where it must go. A distinguishing feature of ABCHOR is that a
given robots agents not only communicate with its other onboard agents, but that they can also use radio communications to make contact with the agents of other robots (for more information about technology involving agents, see Pictures of the Future, Fall 2001, pages 50 59). Team Spirit. There are two basic methods of dividing tasks among robots static or dynamic. In a static division of the work area, machines clean only a predefined section. Here, the drawback is that the system cant adapt to new situations, explains Jger. He adds that if a team member should fail or require more than the expected amount of time for its sector, some of the work simply wouldnt get done, or cleaning the entire area would take too long. The three experimental robots have therefore been programmed for dynamic operation. They dont do any actual cleaning just yet, since the present phase of the program is focused on demonstrating team spirit. But eventually their brains will be implanted in real cleaning robots. If an airport robot, for instance, is forced to pause because the line at the check-in counter is long and passengers are blocking its path, the machine attempts to contact its colleagues by radio. Its signals have a range of about ten meters and are communicated not by a global network but by a wireless LAN (See Pictures of the Future, Spring 2002, pages 9 11). Depending on the situation, other service robots can arrive promptly to help clean the area as soon as its clear.
Cooperative Behaviors. The first step to ensure smooth cooperation is to divide the area to be cleaned into cells of approximately equal size and to assign a number to each cell. Since all of the team members carry the same map in their heads, they can understand the meaning of information such as Hello, I am currently cleaning the floor in cell number five. In other words, the other robots know that they should stay out of cell number five. At this point, says Jger, there are basically two scenarios. If all of the robots are located far away from one another in different starting positions, its not necessary that they coordinate which team member works which area. Each member assumes it will clean the nearest cell, and simply goes about its work. Only when they happen to encounter each other during their work in other words, when their 10-meter communications radii intersect, do they tell each other which areas have already been cleaned by whom to avoid redundant work. All previous approaches have been based on the assumption that the machines must be in constant communication with each other, reports Jger. However, we are using an entirely new approach. Our current research shows that robots can intelligently divide the area to be cleaned among team members without constant communication with each other. In the second scenario, all robots start out from the same location. If for some reason they have to begin their cleaning job in the same cell, its a must that they communicate and coordinate with each other, says
Jger. But they dont need much discussion to agree their decision can be instantaneous. Its reached by applying random algorithms. A given section could, for instance, be assigned to the robot with the highest ID number. On the other hand, the robots could perform a virtual dice game in which the one with the highest score is assigned the section, says Jger. But regardless of the type of radio message, the objective is the same: to ensure that several robots dont clean the same area simultaneously. If two units approach each other too closely in their work, they exchange information regarding their current locations and their intended routes. If a collision hazard ensues, one unit pauses and yields the right of way to the other. Exactly which robot does what depends on predefined criteria. What matters is that the best decision is reached for the system as a whole. As a case in point, it wouldnt make sense to stop the faster-moving of the two robots. So the slower-moving unit yields the right of way until the collision hazard has passed. We are currently working not only to improve the way multiple robots share the work area, but also to make their route planning as efficient as possible, reports Jger. Weve performed a great many computer simulations. Now were conducting extensive tests in a real environment. As far as the future is concerned, this means that cleaning robots may not have to work alone for much longer. Instead, they can look forward to being part of a team! Ulrike Zechbauer
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One-hundred integrated sensors ensure a delicate sense of touch. The DLR Hand II (right) can skillfully manipulate objects.
Why Robots Are Just Around the Corner

How intelligent are the robots used commercially today? Ultimately, todays industrial robots are still mere positioning machines whose design is meant to ensure mechanical precision. Their intelligence isnt really that much greater than it was 15 years ago. One reason for the lack of progress is that many pilot projects in the field of sensors and sensor feedback have been discontinued. However, without appropriate sensors, a robot remains dumb and inflexible. Todays household robots also dont measure up to the current state of technology. The first vacuum cleaner robots, for instance, which are now entering the market, have no sense of orientation they clean the carpet by some random route. And that isnt very impressive when you consider that intelligent navigation systems have existed for years. Nevertheless, its important to note that industrial robots have become a lot cheaper. They only cost about one-fourth of what they did 15 years ago, so even small- and medium-sized companies can afford them now. Why are these artificial assistants still so much dumber than they ought to be? To explain that you have to look at economics and legal factors. Theres a saying thats especially popular in the auto industry: The best sensor is no sensor. The idea is to avoid liability issues from the very start because if something does go wrong, it is often very difficult to establish whether the manufacturer of the sensor or of the robot was at fault. Can you imagine a factory of the future operated entirely by machines? Absolutely. Such a factory has already been in operation in Japan for ten years. But development in this field is progressing intermittently, and a good many of the changes have been reversed. Over the longer term, theres no doubt that humans will disappear from the production floor. Im also convinced that well be bringing production processes back to Europe that are currently outsourced to low-wage countries. On the one hand, people in these countries will want to and certainly will earn higher wages, while on the other hand, robots will continue to become more intelligent and better skilled. Theyll soon be able to perform most unpleasant chores reliably, fast and cost-effectively. In fact, manufacturers are beginning to refer to them somewhat unflatteringly as the production slaves of the future. Robots will obviously have a lot on their hands. Will that make them job killers? I dont think so. Experience has shown that industries that make the most use of robots, such as the automotive industry, have actually been increasing their workforces. In industrial societies there seems to be a general trend away from people working in production processes and toward other kinds of employment. Is Japan the undisputed number one in terms of robotics? No. The media keep insisting that Japan is the leader in industrial applications. But thats not true. In the past two years, two European manufacturers actually ranked The new DLR Lightweight Robot III. The robots spherical wrist joint is considerably more flexible than its human counterpart. The arm contains its own control, power and signal electronics. among the top three. The global leader, with annual sales of about 10,000 industrial robots, is ABB of Sweden, followed by Fanuc of Japan. Kuka Roboter of Augsburg, Germany is in third place. But its interesting to note how vigorously the Japanese are pursuing the development of humanoid robots robots that look and move like people as well as artificial pets. What do you consider to be the most fascinating vision in the realm of robotics? For my own part, I have several grand visions, if you will, involving robots. One of these concerns space travel. At the DLR, weve been working for around 25 years to make robots suitable for applications in outer space. During the 1993 Spacelab mission, we were the first to successfully send a robot into space. One of our goals is to replace astronauts with machines so-called robonauts that can be controlled from Earth. These machines could be used to perform such functions as exterior repairs on spaceships. As far as service robotics is concerned, I envision a household assistant for older people that obeys voice commands, never runs out of patience and is available around the clock, seven days a week. This would allow senior citizens to live at home longer. I would emphasize that such robot assistants should not take the place of loving human care. But its time to stop pretending that things are simply wonderful in todays nursing homes, where there is often very little time for really caring attention.
Professor Gerd Hirzinger is Director of the Institute of Robotics and Mechatronics at the German Aerospace Center (DLR) in Oberpfaffenhofen near Munich.
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When do you expect these mobile robotic helpers to become available? In 20 to 30 years at most they should be commonplace not only in nursing homes, but especially in private households. Ive already mentioned my third vision about robots replacing factory workers in the future. But robotics is also continuing to become more important in medical applications. Replacement organs for humans, such as prosthetic hands and artificial hearts, will continue to be refined and perfected in the future. At the DLR we are also planning the development of a new kind of surgical robot that will be much lighter and more intricate in construction. The design will incorporate a degree of sensitive force feedback from inside the patients body a feature that is still lacking in present-day systems. What about the toy industry? Thats a field that will continue to surprise us with ever more sophisticated innovations. Sony is already making more money with its Aibo Dog than leading manufacturers are earning with industrial robots. What do you think the next major advance in robotics technology might be? I cant envision yet where the next great leap forward will come from. For instance, weve nearly exhausted the technological possibilities that can be realized with lightweight robots. Our newest robot has arms made of ultralight carbon fiber structures. Weve also developed an entirely new motor that weighs only half as much as the best conventional motors. Whats more, weve even reduced power losses by half. As a consequence, our robot consumes very little power in fact, it only requires about as much as a bright lightbulb. Thats significantly better than anything thats been done with conventional industrial robots. The ratio of the weight of our robot arm to the payload is one-to-one. Thats the best that can currently be achieved. Of course, theres the ancient dream of recreating human muscle tissue from chemical or organic materials. But we still dont know how to do that. Interview conducted by Ulrike Zechbauer
Robots: Facts and Forecasts

World Market for Service Robots by Area of Application
Status as of end of 2001
Number of units
Installations (estimated) 2002 2005 PRIVATE USE (TOYS, DOMESTIC) 176 ,530 2 ,021 ,000
BUSINESS USE 12 ,914 26 ,455
There are two kinds of robots: industrial and service, and they are headed in two different directions. Last year, the market for industrial robots dropped by about 32 percent, from $5.7 billion in 2000 to only $3.9 billion in 2001. In Japan, sales sank by close to 60 percent. Service robots are a different story. Their numbers although still relatively small are expected to skyrocket from around 190,000 in 2001 to more than 2.2 million within four years.
9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
Robotics: Forecasted Technical Development and Future Application Areas

GRIPPING
Gripping solid objects Gripping objects with soft surfaces; e.g. fruit Gripping soft, sliding material; e.g. fabric and clothing
RECOGNITION
Recognizing two-dimensional structures Recognizing three-dimensional structures
ic in M e on ito se ri cu ng rit , y Ag ric ul tu re La bo ra to ry ea itio nu n, p Un de rw at er G i o as ns O th er ng
ea
ed
INTERFACING
Expression of emotion
Free conversation between humans and machines Multimodal interfaces; e.g. gestures, facial expressions and speech Recognition of emotion from speech
Source: Java Report 2001, Siemens
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Source: World Robotics 2002 Report of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe and the International Federation of Robotics
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APPLICATIONS
Production Service; e.g. cleaning Flying work
Robonauts
Market Volumes for Industrial Robots in 2001 by Country

South Korea 92 Great Britain 92 France 160 Millions of U.S. dollars
Biotechnology: Cellular manipulation Toys
Biotechnology: Molecular manipulation Orientation and outdoor work
2000 Japan 1,119

Source: World Robotics 2002 Report of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe and the International Federation of Robotics
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Italy 409 All other countries 518
Germany 570
U.S. 888
Above left: At the end of 2001, there were around 13,000 service robots in professional use. Between 2002 and 2005, almost 26,500 more are expected to join them. The number of service robots in the private sphere mainly domestic and toy robots is expected to increase more than twelvefold within four years, from around 176,500 in 2001 to almost 2.2 million in 2005.
Below left: Despite a dramatic fall in sales in Japan a drop of almost 60 percent
in 2001 compared with the previous year the Japanese invested more in industrial robots in 2001 than any other country. With an investment of $1.1 billion, they took first place in this area, followed by the U.S., which invested almost $890 million, and Germany with a $570 million investment. The total market volume for industrial robots amounted to almost $3.9 billion in 2001. If associated investments in software and peripherals are also taken into account, the global market in 2001 for complete industrial robot systems was approximately $12 billion. For additional information, see Industrial Robots table on page 26.
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Artificial Intelligence
The Evolution of Artificial Intelligence

Whereas the first generation of neural networks in the 1980s used very simple artificial nerve cells, temporal dynamics played an important role in the second
At MIT, researchers are trying to imbue machines like Cog with the capacity for common-sense reasoning.
Can We BuiId Intelligent Machines?

Instilling human intelligence or common sense into robots is one of the greatest challenges facing researchers. One possible approach is to create artificial nerve cells in software and hardware and wire them together in the same way they are connected in the human brain.
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Our new companions are called Aibo, Asimo, Cog and Kismet. Their bodies are made not of flesh and blood, but of metal, circuits and sensors. Asimo looks like an astronaut. He can stiffly walk up a staircase on two legs. Aibo, the pooch, barks and likes it when his master pets him. Cog, the torso, is supposed to learn how to behave through interaction with his environment. And Kismet, the metallic head with the goggle-eyes and huge lips, can smile or show fear or anger (see article on page 68). Could we say that Aibo, Asimo, Cog and Kismet are intelligent? Being able to build machines that are like animals or people is an ancient dream that can be traced back at least as far as the 18th century. In 1738, French inventor Jacques de Vaucanson presented to an amazed public a flute player that moved its tongue and lips like a person and pressed its fingers over the holes of the instrument to play various songs. Vaucanson built more automatons, which were followed by a veritable machine boom. The novel Frankenstein from the year 1818 reinforced the idea that one could build a copy of a person. But only with the advent of the computer did the dream of intelligent machines take on a tangible form. Now, says Professor Marvin Minsky, artificial intelligence (AI) pioneer and founder of the famous AI Lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), its only a matter of time before there are robots that measure up to people. Other scientists offer similar predictions. Professor Hans Moravec of Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, believes that by 2010 robots will be able to
generation (1990s). Neurons were no longer static, but instead operated with pulsed signals like their natural counterparts. This time dependence allowed them to process input patterns far more complex than those that could be handled by static neurons. The third generation, which has evolved in the last few years, is referred to as neurocognitive because it takes into account knowledge concerning the organization of brain functions. Thus, in addition to the input of a certain visual pattern, the neurons in systems developed by Siemens researchers also receive data from other parts of the brain, such as the inferotemporal cortex. This area ensures that objects are recognized independently of their orientation in space. All of this, together with sophisticated sensor technology, lends a certain intelligence to machines.
neuro-computing specialist at Bielefeld University in Germany, who, together with his colleagues, is currently teaching a robot to recognize language and gestures. One thing, at least, is clear: Human intelligence can be traced back to the large number of specialized functions in our brains. We can identify objects of all kinds. We can move around without bumping into things. We can recognize the feelings of others and express our own emotions. We learn from experience.
Integration of Neurobiological Levels into Neural Network Technologies
1ST GENERATION
1980s
2ND GENERATION
1990s
Inferotemporal cortex AIT
3RD GENERATION
Today and tomorrow
PP PIT V1 AIT PP PIT V4 V1 Retina
Artificial intelligence
V4
Cognition
Visual areas
Systems theory
Machine intelligence
Neural networks nonlinear, static
Networks of pulsed neurons temporal encoding
Neurocognitive systems active sensors
Moravec, they will be so perfect that people will implant their minds in them. Thus, by the end of the 21st century, human and artificial intelligence will merge, creating a new life form (see essay on page 71). Simulating the Brain. Many bold visions of this kind are based on the assumption that intelligence can be created through sheer computing power. We are looking for the gold of the Incas, but we havent even discovered America yet, cautions Professor Christoph von der Malsburg, who designs software that recognizes faces at Bochum University in Germany and the University of Southern California at Los Angeles. On the one hand, he says, modern computing is trying to make models of the brain, despite the fact that researchers do not yet understand how it works. On the other hand, AI re-
move with the intelligence of small lizards. By 2020, says Moravec, machines will be as adaptive as mice; by 2030 as smart as apes; and by 2040 they will rival the full cognitive ability of human beings, having the power of imagination, and the ability to learn and modify their behavior. Eventually, says
searchers are slowly realizing how difficult it is to generate reliable behavior in a natural environment. To put it differently: In the laboratory it may be possible to build a machine that recognizes faces, navigates a path or takes hold of objects. But the real world is incomparably more complicated and yet people manage to find their way around in it. But if neither Cog nor Kismet, both of which are being developed at the AI Lab at MIT, nor Aibo (Sony) nor Asimo (Honda) can do anything like this, the questions then become: Do machines even have the potential for intelligence? How does one implant common sense into them? And how can they obtain knowledge of the natural world? Researchers are only slowly feeling their way around the question of what intelligence is. There is no comprehensive theory of intelligence, says Professor Helge Ritter, a
We plan our future. All of this is based on the complicated interactions that take place between numerous parts of our brain. But because researchers are still a long way from understanding how these parts of the brain act in concert, and because each part is itself extremely complex, the builders of intelligent robots still have to limit themselves to small units of intelligence. Some therefore take up visual intelligence and make computers recognize images; others replicate spatial intelligence and train machines to find their way around a room. Two Research Groups. In Munich, two teams from Siemens Corporate Technology are working on modeling and imitating intelligence. Their approaches are very different, but they nevertheless complement one another.
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Source: Siemens
Input
Output
Dynamic input
Output
Dynamic input
Output
ROBOTS
Artificial Intelligence
ROBOTS
Emotional Intelligence
Researchers working with Professor Bernd Schrmann in the Neural Computation group chose biology as their source of ideas. They did so because Schrmann is convinced that, as an optimized machine for reasoning, the brain knows best how to process signals from the outside world. Thus, networks of artificial nerve cells should operate in the same way real neurons do, preferably down to the level of biochemistry. A network of this kind with millions of electronic nerve cells has been designed by award-winning Siemens researcher Dr. Gustavo Deco as a software solution. The network has, for instance, been presented with the task of identifying a doorknob. Performing this kind of activity requires a spark of intelligence, if you like, says Schrmann. The software must know what a doorknob generally looks like. It can accomplish this because certain cells have been trained to recognize doorknob-shaped objects, having learned this in advance from a large number of examples. But before the network can signal that it has identified a doorknob, over one million differential equations per second must be solved. The software can identify not only doorknobs and other objects, but also items of a specific color, such as red or blue doorknobs. As in the brain, color and shape are processed by different networks of nerves, which then combine their information. The neurons that specialize in certain patterns so-called grandmother cells represent the optical common-sense knowledge of a robot. Thanks to the collective capacity of these cells, Decos artificial brain recognizes naturally-occurring patterns. Deco, who recently became one of a handful of Inventors of the Year at Siemens, is currently engaged in a European-wide project designed to mold the software into special hardware. If, for instance, it becomes possible to capture something like 1,000 neurons on a chip, the network would be rapid enough to identify patterns in real time. At the moment, however, Decos network of neurons is still being simulated by software, which makes calculations relatively slow.
Learning by Doing. The other Siemens AI group is taking a more pragmatic approach. We want to develop a product that we will gradually instill with intelligence, says Rudolf Kober, head of Siemens Intelligent Autonomous Systems center in Munich. Together with the Automation and Drives Group, Kobers team developed a cleaning robot that has already been on the market for two years. Following a training phase, the machine can react flexibly to obstacles as it glides independently along the aisles in a supermarket while cleaning the floors. Not even its designers can predict where it will go next, since this process is based on an internal map built on the basis of experience (see article on pages 59). Tough to Beat. Despite all of the advances they have made in recent years, the two teams of Siemens researchers admit that imbuing robots with intelligence is an arduous task. The main snag is that the environment in which we live is more diverse than one first realizes, says Dr. Gisbert Lawitzky, who has been involved in developing the cleaning robot. Every chair leg that we can easily avoid is an obstacle for a machine. To a certain extent, you start to feel humbled by human intelligence, says Lawitzky. Even though they do not see any theoretical impediments to developing a truly intelligent robot, the researchers are far from piecing together the components of intelligence into a machine that senses, plans and acts perfectly, communicates with people, and carries around a sort of picture of the surrounding world in its head. All things considered, researchers tend to shy away from specifying when such a mechanical marvel will appear. Not 50 but more likely 100 years from now, predicts Deco. But maybe by 2015, says Lawitzky, we will see an assistant that performs a number of useful functions in the household (see article on page 4). Such forecasts are being taken seriously. Ethicists at the European Academy in Bad Neuenahr, Germany, are already pondering the rights of our future metallic companions. Jeanne Rubner
Artificial creatures that display feelings such as robot Mexi shown here, cute characters for chat rooms (small picture, left) and Japanese creations (bottom) can make interaction with machines much easier.
Say It with Feeling

Robots and artificial creatures on computer displays are being designed to show more emotion. The goal is better communication with people.
Hello there, Im Mexi. Like a curious rabbit, the little fellow with the tinny voice perks up his ears and beams. He stares at the unfamiliar guest for a while, but then his attention seems to wane, and he gazes at the floor apathetically, then sets his sights on two colored balls that lie in front of him on a table until that gets too boring for him as well. Mexi has needs just like a person, says 43-year-old Dr. Bernd Kleinjohann, Deputy Director of C-LAB in Paderborn, Germany, a research institute run jointly by Siemens and the University of Paderborn. Once a need has been satisfied, he loses interest like an infant. Kleinjohann is one of the fathers or rather creators of Mexi, the Machine with Emotionally Extended Intelligence. Mexi is not a living thing, but rather a somewhat bizarre concoction made of plexiglas, microchips, motors, cameras and small lights. Nevertheless, with its protruding eyes and its lips of red cord, the robot looks somehow human, almost endearing. You automatically smile back and catch yourself wanting to talk to this artificial head. And indeed, Mexi can already speak short sentences and express
emotions. For instance, he raises his voice when hes happy, and lowers it when hes in a bad mood. Role Models. Does Mexi have feelings? No, he just appears to, says Kleinjohann, shaking his head as he opens the Emotion Engine on a PC, from which Mexi can be programmed. Three slide controls appear on the screen. They represent the alternating desires Mexi tries to satisfy: communication (looking at people), play (watching colored balls) and greeting the Linux mascot a penguin doll. With the help of another control, Mexi can display a wider range of emotions. He can show fear, for example, by cringing when someone waves a hand in front of his camera eyes or comes too close for comfort. Mexi has two famous role models: Cog and Kismet, both of which were built at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) just outside of Boston. Robot pioneer Professor Rodney Brooks proceeded from the hypothesis that a robot can acquire attributes similar to those of a human being only if it is allowed to explore its surroundings in the same way a small child does. Cog is now able
to distinguish the faces of his handlers from strangers faces, and he can tell whether or not a person is looking directly at him. Like Mexi, Kismet, the successor to Cog, has feelings. If no one pays attention to him, he looks sad. Kismet was designed to emotionally blackmail people, says his creator, Cynthia Breazeal. The Need for Emotions. Neglected by cognitive researchers until recently, emotions now seem to be essential to the success of artificial intelligence, a field that has disappointed many since its promising birth in the 1960s and `70s. The Affective Computing research group at MIT is proceeding from the assumption that emotions are important for the ability of intelligent machines to make flexible and rational decisions. The researchers draw this inference in part from studies conducted by Antonio Damasio, a neurologist at the University of Iowa. In the course of his research, Damasio discovered that emotionally disturbed patients make their decisions much as computers do inflexibly and according to simple if-then patterns.
All of this is speculation for Bernd Kleinjohann. Hes not particularly concerned whether Mexis emotions are genuine or pretend. Whats important, he believes, are the feelings that the artificial head triggers in people. People project their emotions onto technical devices they interact with, he observes. Although robots or artificial characters on a screen so-called avatars do not have real feelings themselves, they trigger emotional reactions in people. And this can be used, for example, to design better
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user interfaces. This new discipline is called robotic user interfaces, and the objective behind it is not to build robots and avatars that resemble people, but to develop synthetic creations that can bridge the gap between human needs and the information present in the computer world. Kleinjohann imagines future information kiosks or cash machines that enter into spoken dialog with users through a device that might be similar to Mexi. Christoph Bartneck of the Eindhoven University of Technology in the Netherlands imagines robot interfaces above all in the entertainment and educational sectors. He believes that robots could also take over the job of controlling an electronic home. In Japan, where the subject of humanoid robots is viewed with far fewer inhibitions than almost anywhere else, domestic helpers of this kind are already highly popular. One example is the R100 from NEC, which looks like a miniature version of R2D2 from Star Wars. This monitor-based creation can read e-mails out loud for its owner and control the television and video recorder. But Kleinjohann believes that a physical implementation such as Mexi is more credible and therefore superior to a computer-screen avatar. The PC with a screen isnt the terminal of the future, he says.
Kismet, Mexis brother, was created at the Artificial Intelligence Laboratory at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Boston.
Friendly Faces. But ease of use can be enhanced with the personal computer as well. Dr. Stefan Schoen, head of the User Interface Design department at Siemens Corporate Technology (CT) in Munich, Germany, emphasizes that finding the right mixture of user friendliness and attractiveness is crucial to the acceptance of user interfaces in PCs and PDAs. The attractiveness factor has a big influence on subjective first impressions, and therefore on sales. The same is true for voice-response systems. A friendly computer voice is interpreted as more helpful than a neutral or unfriendly one. Feelings can therefore be deliberately manipulated on a subliminal level. However, it is important that the interaction remain controllable, Schoen says. Although a machine may arouse emotions in people, it should not become unpredictable and irritate users with its own moods like the depressive robot Marvin in Douglas Adams novel The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy. Things can also backfire if an avatar acts too much
like a person, since that might create expectations that the artificial creature cannot possibly fulfill. Abstract gestures like pointing or head scratching when the computer is looking for an answer are very effective, notes Dr. Bernhard Kmmerer, who is responsible for interaction technologies at Siemens CT. In principle, that also applies to Clippit, which pops up to offer help texts in Microsoft programs. Nevertheless, the virtual paperclip doesnt go over well, because it appears without being invoked, says Stefan Schoen. Many users feel controlled by Clippit, he says. Schoens colleague Heinz Bergmeier is currently developing avatars for a future UMTS chat application. The new generation of figures resemble amusing cartoon characters and can depict the feelings of chat participants on a cell phone display. These figures work in much the same way as the emotions that many cell phone users like to use in SMS. Instead of faces produced from symbols, such as :-) or :-(, a mobile chat can use humorous characters such as penguins or tortoises that act as avatars and smile or pout in a virtual chatroom. Using a slide control, the user can select from up to 13 different emotional states to transfer to his or her cell phone partners phone. If the participants like each other, they can even go into a private room and have the penguin and the tortoise kiss by pressing a button. The Sound of Anger. Obviously, it is easy to call forth emotional reactions in people. A yapping plastic dog like Sonys toy robot Aibo or a cartoon character on a cell phone display are all it takes. But could the reverse be true? Would it be possible for machines to recognize and use emotions? To date, achievements in this area have been modest. Researchers at the University of Munich have used a computer to interpret 80 percent of human gestures, but the number of gestures was small and they were performed by actors. For Professor Harald Hge of the Interaction Technologies Department at Siemens CT in Munich, what is particularly interesting is
how emotions are expressed in speech. In the future, says Hge, the voice response systems frequently used by call centers for preliminary customer guidance will put a caller through to a flesh-and-blood staff member immediately if they determine that the caller is angry. But this will not happen in the near future. The most effective thing would be to tap right into the brain to determine a persons feelings, says Dr. Martin Stetter of the Neurocomputing Center at Siemens CT. Stetter is developing a brain-computer interface that senses simple emotional states by means of electroencephalograms. Indeed, certain brainwaves are very reliable indicators of fright, relaxation or tiredness. This means that a cap fitted with sensors could be used to measure the effect user interfaces have on test subjects. The technology could, for instance, be adapted to automotive safety systems that would sound an alarm if the driver started dozing off. Brain Piercing. In animal experiments, monkeys have learned to control a robotic arm with the power of their thoughts. To do so, however, a team led by Johan Wessberg from Duke University in Durham, North Carolina, had to implant electrodes in the brains of the test animals. Taking these thoughts a step further, Stetter believes that it may eventually be possible to transmit simple feelings from one individuals brain to another or even to a robot by means of what he calls brain piercing. Nevertheless, even he doesnt believe that the entire gamut of a persons thoughts and emotions will ever be transmitted in this manner: Thats pure science fiction, he says. Bernd Mller
We Are Becoming Cyborgs
Computers started out as large, remote machines in airconditioned rooms tended by white-coated technicians. Subsequently they moved onto our desks, then under our arms, and now into our pockets. Soon, well routinely put them inside our bodies and brains. Ultimately we will become more nonbiological than biological.
The age of neural implants is well under way. We have brain implants based on neuromorphic modeling (i.e., reverse engineering of the human brain and nervous system) for a rapidly growing number of brain regions. A generation of cochlear implants now on the drawing board will provide levels of frequency discrimination that go significantly beyond that of normal hearing. And in Germany, researchers at the Max Planck Institute have developed noninvasive devices that can communicate with neurons in both directions. They have demonstrated a neuron transistor by controlling the movements of a living leech from a personal computer. Intelligent machines are already making their way into our blood stream. There are dozens of projects underway to create blood stream-based biological microelectromechanical systems (bioMEMS) to intelligently scout out pathogens and deliver medications in very precise ways. For example, a researcher at the University of Illinois at Chicago has created a tiny capsule with pores measuring only seven nanometers (10-9).
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The pores let insulin out in a controlled manner but prevent antibodies from invading the capsule. Similar systems could precisely deliver dopamine to the brains of Parkinsons patients, and deliver cancer drugs directly to tumors. By the end of this decade, computing will disappear as a discrete technology that we need to carry with us. Well routinely have high-resolution images encompassing the entire visual field written directly to our retinas from our eyeglasses and contact lenses. Well have very high-speed wireless connections to the Internet at all times. The electronics for all of this will be embedded in our clothing. Circa 2010, these very personal computers will enable us to meet with each other in full immersion, visual-auditory, virtual reality environments as well as augment our vision with location- and time-specific information at all times. By 2030, electronics will utilize moleculesized circuits, reverse engineering of the human brain will have been completed, and bioMEMS will have evolved into bioNEMS (biological nanoelectromechanical systems). It will be routine to have billions of nanobots (i.e., nano-scale robots) coursing through the capillaries of our brains, communicating with each other (over a wireless local area network), as well as with our biological neurons and with the Internet. One application will be to provide full-immersion virtual reality that encompasses all of our senses. When we
want to enter a virtual reality environment, the nanobots will replace the signals from our real senses with the signals that our brain would receive if we were actually in the virtual environment. We will have a panoply of virtual environments to choose from, including earthly worlds that we are familiar with, as well as those with no earthly counterpart. We will be able to go to these virtual places and have any kind of interaction with other real (as well as simulated) people ranging from business negotiations to sensual encounters. In virtual reality, we wont be restricted to a single personality as we will be able to change our appearance and become other people. Experience beamers will beam their entire flow of sensory experiences as well as the neurological correlates of their emotional reactions out on the Web just as people today beam their bedroom images from their Web cams. A popular pastime will be to plug in to someone elses sensory-emotional beam and experience what its like to be someone else, la Being John Malkovich. There will also be a vast selection of archived experiences to choose from. The design of virtual environments, and the creation of archived full-immersion experiences will become new art forms. The most important application of circa 2030 nanobots will be to literally expand our minds. Were limited today to a mere hundred trillion interneuronal connections, which we will be able to augment by adding
virtual connections via nanobot communication. This will provide us with the opportunity to vastly expand our pattern recognition abilities, memories, and overall thinking capaity, as well as to directly interface with powerful forms of nonbiological intelligence. Its important to note that once nonbiological intelligence gets a foothold in our brains (a threshold weve already passed), it will grow exponentially, as is the nature of information-based technologies. Note that a one-inch cube of nanotube circuitry (which is already working at small scales in laboratories) will be at least a million times more powerful than the human brain. By 2040, the nonbiological portion of our intelligence will be far more powerful than the biological portion. It will, however, still be part of the human-machine civilization, having been derived from human intelligence; i.e., created by humans (or machines created by humans) and based at least in part on the reverse engineering of the human nervous system. Stephen Hawking recently commented in the German magazine Focus that computer intelligence will surpass that of humans within a few decades. He advocated that we develop as quickly as possible technologies that make possible a direct connection between brain and computer, so that artificial brains contribute to human intelligence rather than opposing it. Hawking can take comfort that the development program he is recommending is well under way. Ray Kurzweil
Ray Kurzweil has founded, built, and sold companies that have successfully opened markets in the fields of optical character recognition, computer-based music recreation, financial analysis and medical education. In 1990, Ray's first book, The Age of Intelligent Machines, was published by the MIT Press. In 1999, he published The Age of Spiritual Machines, When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence. Ray has received a long list of national and international awards, including the National Medal of Technology the U.S. highest honor in technology and nine honorary doctorates in science, engineering, music and humane letters.
Soccer robots from Munichs Technical University are lovingly programmed for victory.
In Our Own Image

They are hobby inventors, modelers, visionaries and they spend many a night in the lab with their robots. This is the training center where the computing students from the Technical University (TU) in Munich tighten screws, solder joints, drill holes and program laptop brains to compete. Their goal: to turn their tin wonders into world champions at the annual Robocup, the soccer robots own World Cup. In 2002 the competition was held in Japan at the same time and in the same place as the human World Cup, albeit in a baseball stadium but then, robots arent snobs about such things. Research groups, mostly from universities, sent their creations to the competition, where they were sorted into leagues. For Andreas Hofhauser, a sixth semester computer science major at the TU, it was already his second time as representative of his team. We were very optimistic because we had completely renewed the hardware, he says. Moreover, the Robocuppers, as the team calls itself, had been honing their software since 1998. Whereas some robots seek success by heading wildly towards the goal without any idea of where they are on the field, the machines from Munich use their heads. With cameras for eyes, they can observe the nine-by-four-meter playing field, analyze the environment by means of image recognition software, and determine the location of flags, the oppositions goal and the
Calculations per Second per $1,000

1035 1030 1025 1020 1015 1010 105 10 One insect brain Collective capacity of all human brains
Computer Volume in Cubic Meters

0,00001 Match-size Web Server 0,001 0,1
One human brain One mouse brain 1 First personal computer 100 Early supercomputer 10.000 Source: Ray Kurzweil
10-5 10-10 Today 1.000.000 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
As computers become more and more powerful
they will become small enough to interact with human neurons.
Scientists and engineers around the world are laying the foundations for robots that may one day challenge human intelligence. What makes them do it?
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Robot soccer is almost as exciting as the real thing.
I n
According to Professor Peter Gendolla, a specialist in contemporary literature from the University of Siegen, Germany, when it comes to science fiction, what we see at the movies and on our television screens are zombies made in our own image. Gendolla, who has written many essays on the subject of artificial humans in film and literature, finds that stories about androids emerge most often at times when a group or a society is overwhelmed by its own technological progress. We identify with the creature, perfect in its artificiality, that threatens us. This enables us to deal with feelings of pain or loss of control. For example, during the advent of industrialization, individuals became little more than cogs in the impenetrable machinery of production. Jean Paul described the 18th century as the century of machinepeople. They repeatedly appear in the novels of Eichendorff and E.T.A. Hoffmann. Blurring Boundaries. In the 20th century the boundaries began to blur. In film and literature, humans and machines become so alike as to be indistinguishable. Authors of all stripes are now playing on uncertainties created by this gray area. But researchers, visionaries and some fanatics are also concerned with the question of whether robots will one day be able to develop their own emotions. Will they even fall in love, as in Steven Spielbergs Artificial Intelligence? One computer scientist at Munichs TU even ponders whether humans are actually highly developed robots simply the sum of biochemical and physical processes. Professor Coy, who also studies philosophy, isnt particularly disturbed by this line of thinking. Were certainly not robots, he says; but then adds thoughtfully, If we are, were so well programmed that we dont notice it. Obviously, scientists at Munichs TU still have a way to go before their protgs begin to challenge human capabilities. But perhaps one day their metallic soccer players will be able to celebrate victory and suffer the pain of defeat. Maybe they will even rebel against their masters. For now, however, their creators are simply focusing on winning the next World Cup. Andreas Kleinschmidt
B r i e f
By the end of 2005, it is estimated that there will be 39,500 service robots working in professional applications worldwide, some 2,900 of which will be involved in areas like floor and window cleaning. Mobile machines are already being used today to clean floors in places such as supermarkets. They are guided by Siemens SINAS, the worlds most advanced navigation system for autonomous service robots. Whereas todays robots work independently, in the future they will do large-surface cleaning jobs as teams. Siemens is developing and testing the navigation systems that will be required for this. In 20 to 30 years, service robots will become a part of the home environment. These machines will conduct their work after receiving spoken orders from their owners. Among other things, such robots will make it possible for elderly people to live at home longer. Although todays industrial robots are not much more intelligent than those of 15 years ago, they cost only one-fourth as much. This has made them affordable for more and more small- and medium-sized companies. Experts believe that humans will disappear from factories over the long term, with robots taking on all the strenuous work. Until now, scientists have had little luck in developing human-like intelligence for machines. Siemens researchers are now developing networks containing millions of artificial nerve cells that function in the same manner as human nerve cells. Today, such networks are often simulated with software, which means object-recognition processes remain relatively slow. Tomorrows networks, however, are expected to be able to recognize patterns in real time. The Robotic User Interface project is designed to create better human-machine interfaces, including robots and computer avatars that show more emotion. This will facilitate human interaction with machines. Some experts predict it will be possible in the future to transfer feelings from a human brain to an artificial one. Conversely, it might be possible to install nanorobots in human brains as a means of expanding consciousness. CONTACTS Heinz Bergmeier, CT IC 7, Fax: +49 89 636-49428 heinz.bergmeier@siemens.com Dr. Gustavo Deco, CT IC 4, Fax: +49 89 636-49767 gustavo.deco@mchp.siemens.de Prof. Harald Hge, CT IC 5, Fax: +49 89 636-49802 harald.hoege@siemens.com Dr. Bernhard Kmmerer, CT IC 5, Fax: +49 89 636-49802 bernhard.kaemmerer@siemens.com Rudolf Kober, CT IC 6, Fax: +49 89 636-41423 rudolf.kober@siemens.com Dr. Gisbert Lawitzky, CT IC 6, Fax: +49 89-636-41423 gisbert.lawitzky@siemens.com Dr. Stefan Schoen, CT IC 7, Fax: +49 89 636-49428 stefan.schoen@siemens.com Prof. Dr. Bernd Schrmann, CT IC 4, Fax: +49 89 636-49767 schuermann@siemens.com Dr. Martin Stetter, CT IC 4, Fax: +49 89 636-49767 martin.stetter@mchp.siemens.de C-Lab Dr. Bernd Kleinjohann, Fax: +49 5251-606065 bernd.kleinjohann@c-lab.de Ray Kurzweil ray@kurzweiltech.com LINKS Siemens Corporate Technology, Information and Communications: www.siemens.de/ct/en/technologies/ic Cleaning machines, SINAS: www.ad.siemens.com/sinas/ index_76.htm www.hefter.de/cleantech/e_index.htm C-LAB, Mexi: www.clab.de/home/en/home.html International Federation of Robotics: www.ifr.org DLR, Institute for Robotics and Mechtronics: www.robotic.dlr.de MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory: www.ai.mit.edu The Kurzweil Companies: www.kurzweiltech.com LITERATURE World Robotics 2002, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, et al VDI-Reports 1679, Robotics 2002, VDI Verlag (2002) Moravec, Hans P., Robot, Oxford University Press, May, 2000
difference in colors between the red ball and the green playing surface. The four metal players exchange information on their positions by means of radio links so that they can pass, score goals and win assuming, of course, that all goes well. The well-equipped Robocuppers squared off against 15 opponents in the mid-sized league the top league where machines of up to 50 x 50 centimeters move autonomously. The organizers hopes were pinned on machines like these. Their aim is extraordinarily ambitious. They hope to build robots that will be able not only to play against, but to beat humans in the 2050 soccer world championships. Im rather skeptical about that, admits Hofhauser, but it is a great feeling to see something that Ive worked on progressing according to plan. The 120,000 spectators who watched the four-day World Cup in Fukuoka were fascinated too. While the machines competed, a humanoid Honda P3 robot danced on a stage. The games are just as exciting as real ones, claims Hofhauser. And theres just as much tragedy, he might add. After just two games, the men from Munich were traunced, their normally nimble robots moving as slowly as sloths. Hofhauser and his team believe that a new cable failed to function properly. Whether that was the only fault will have to be determined by intricate de-
tective work. Naturally we were deeply disappointed by our performance, says Hofhauser. Some of the students had been working for three years on the little machines. Nevertheless, the setback hasnt dampened their enthusiasm for robotics. They have other reasons for being commited to their work. Its all about scientific progress, says Hofhauser, and having fun. Why do children play with building blocks? For the same reason we build robots the desire to make things. Robot competitions all over the world seem to confirm this. Seventy events are already planned for 2003 alone, including a Robo Fire-Fighter Contest and sumo wrestling involving small robots a sport that is very popular in Japan. Up to 7,000 mechanical wrestlers take part in these competitions every year. Given all this enthusiasm, one might think that many robot researchers have managed to retain a kind of childlike creativity that most of us lose. Mirroring Humans. Many scientists around the world believe there is a deeper reason for all the interest in this topic. They believe it is the secret desire of every engineer to populate the world with a double of him or herself. Robot expert Professor Wolfgang Coy from the Humboldt University in Berlin is one of them. Many a robot fantasy is a fantasy of
immortality. Many of us would simply like to make a backup version of ourselves, says Coy. There is much evidence to support this theory of an ancient wish for a mirror image. The dream of a self-made double is thousands of years old. The Jewish cabbalists gave form to this longing in the 11th century with the myth of the golem, a clay being that was animated by a secret sign on its forehead. While masculine golems went off to cut wood, their female counterparts stayed behind at home where they were suspected of providing sexual favors to their masters. Even this forerunner of the modern robot fantasy thus emerges as a male fantasy, always ready to serve, always obedient the robot as a slave. Slaves with Souls? The word robot first ap peared in Karel Capeks 1921 play R.U.R. Rossums Universal Robots. Characterized by a socialist theme, the book tells the tale of artificial men robota who are forced to do slave work. When the book was translated into English for an American production the word spread across the globe. The recurring plot in this and other tales of robots is that industrial slaves break their dependency and attempt to revolt. They develop souls and wind up threatening their makers. Modern cinema classics like Metropolis, Blade Runner and Terminator put this familiar vision into moving pictures.
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Venturing
Getting Started with a Powerful Partner

Contrary to popular opinion, the demise of numerous companies in the New Economy does not mean that venture capital has dried up for promising start-ups. As things have calmed down on the market, we can now take the time to even better analyze companies that interest us, says Bjrn Eske Christensen, CEO of Siemens Venture Capital GmbH (SVC). Were also better equipped to help them achieve their objectives. Even in the past, we didnt pursue financial goals exclusively. Instead, we saw ourselves as a long-term partner of those companies we invested in. And since we took a relatively conservative approach to putting together our portfolio, we weren't as hard hit by the stock market crash and the bursting tech bubble as others were. So nows the best time for us to invest again. SVC, which is headquartered in Munich, Germany and has offices in San Jos, CA, and Boston, MA, has invested 500 million euros for Siemens over the last five years. The funds have been invested into more than 70
Siemens supports young companies throughout all phases of their development from initial idea to IPO and beyond.
start-ups and 25 venture capital funds, most of them in the U.S., Europe and Israel. The Corporate Venture Organization focuses on young, innovative companies that operate in strategic technology fields in which Siemens is also active, such as information and communications, automation, medical engineering and energy. The companies targeted for investment also promise above-average returns. Fourteen companies in the SVC portfolio are now listed either on the NASDAQ or German stock exchanges.
Siemens Supports All Phases in Company Development

Seed phase (ideas, patents) Start-up company Market entry / expansion Possible IPO
Siemens Venture Capital Siemens Technology Accelerator Siemens Technology-To-Business Center Siemens Mobile Acceleration GmbH (No investment) Siemens Business Accelerator
Support for start-ups in the form of capital and know-how is generally divided into separate financing stages. Incubators and accelerators support firms during the seed phase in other words, from the very beginning, when initial ideas are generated and patents are registered. SVC makes investments during subsequent financing rounds. Siemens Technology Accelerator (STA), Munich, and Siemens Technology-To-Business Center (TTB) in Berkeley, CA, are both assigned to Siemens Corporate Technology (CT). STA focuses on turning technology that is not part of Siemens core business into promising ventures by giving young companies professional advice and financing to help them get established or launched as spin-offs. TTB specializes in nurturing radical innovations for the core business areas of its sponsors, CT and the Automation and Drives Group. These innovative ideas primarily originate from academic research activities in the U.S. Siemens Business Accelerator in Munich provides advice and practical support for young companies, but does not make capital investments. Siemens Mobile Acceleration GmbH (smac) is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Siemens Information and Communication Mobile Group. It specializes in supporting innovative business ideas in wireless communications. smacs services typically include support for start-ups around the world during the seed phase before market entry. smac provides extensive coaching and seed financing averaging approximately one million euros. It currently maintains offices in Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Sweden and China. Basically we help to ensure that the companies we support are involved in technologies that correspond to Siemens in one way or another, says SVCs Christensen. This is not only because we can better assess their chances of success; it also means we can offer them the opportunity to establish a partnership with our globally operating company for developing new technologies or optimizing sales, for example. Thats a very appealing offer which is why most of SVCs start-up companies have business relations with Siemens. Ulrich Eberl
Typical Examples of Companies Supported by Siemens

Company name and location Blue Pumpkin, Sunnyvale, California, U.S. CODEON, Columbia, Maryland, U.S. GlobespanVirata, Red Bank, New Jersey, U.S. Nishan Systems, San Jos, California, U.S.
Sponsor Siemens Venture Capital www.siemensventure capital.com
Activities Provider of workforce management solutions for call and contact centers CODEON (COmmunication DEvices for Optical Networks) manufactures components for fiber optic networks Leading provider of integrated circuits, software and system design for broadband applications via copper telephone lines (DSL technologies) Worlds first supplier of native IP storage solutions, builds open storage networking products based on IP and Ethernet Products and solutions for molecular medicine and DNA labels Leading manufacturer of all-optical fiber optic switching modules and subsystems Image processing for automatic scene analysis, security solutions, building management Quality-of-service solutions for optimizing network performance Leading manufacturer of intelligent meter-reading systems for energy companies and other utilities Internet filter and assistance systems
Further information www.bluepumpkin.com
www.codeoncorp.com www.globespanvirata.com
www.nishansystems.com
Siemens Mobile Acceleration GmbH www.smac.siemens.com Siemens Technology Accelerator www.sta.siemens.com
november AG, Erlangen, Germany OMM (Optical Micro Machines), San Diego, California, U.S. Setrix AG, Munich, Germany and Princeton, New Jersey, U.S. Sitara Networks, Waltham, Massachusetts, U.S. SmartSynch, Jackson, Missouri, U.S. Webwasher.com AG, Paderborn, Germany Investments in an additional 70 start-ups and 25 venture capital funds, e.g. STAR Ventures, TVM Techno Venture Management and others Scaraboo GmbH, Mediabricks, Innovative applications for mobile networks The PhonePages of Sweden AB, (contests and quizzes, platform for multimedia Magus and others. contents on mobile devices, cell phone Web sites, mobile gaming application developer in China) EnOcean GmbH, Munich, Unique technology for autonomous Germany radio transmission of signals without batteries Sympalog, Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany Voice dialog systems that enable natural dialog with a computer (for reservation and information systems, voice portals etc.) Software for optimizing test procedures for complex equipment and processes
www.november.de see article on page 30 www.omminc.com www.setrix.com www.sitaranetworks.com www.smartsynch.com www.webwasher.com
See Pictures of the Future, Spring 2002, page 22
See Pictures of the Future, Spring 2002, pages 70 71 www.sympalog.com
Siemens TechnologyTo-Business Center www.ttb.siemens.com
OptimiSE GmbH, Bruchsal, Munich and Regensburg, Germany Additional companies such as Sphere (monitoring of blood parameters), Cogneon (software for analysis of customer behavior) Elliptec Resonant Actuator AG, Miniature motors based on piezo technology Dortmund, Germany
www.optimise.de
www.elliptec.com see article on page 78
Siemens Business Accelerator www.siemens.com/sba
WebV2, San Francisco, Software solutions for Next Generation Internet www.webv2.com California /U.S. Additional companies such as LookAhead Decisions, Rether Networks and others Partner for companies such as Peppercon (Management of PCs and servers), Evosoft eBusiness GmbH (e-business solutions for industry), Inxight Deutschland GmbH (software for Internet content analysis) and others
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77
FEATURES
Start-up Companies
Fluid Motion Through Controlled Oscillations

The control system for the Elliptec motor is impressively simple. A microcontroller and a single transistor are all that it takes to supply the piezo ceramic with voltage, which causes it to expand by less than one micrometer. If the drive current is absent, it contracts (piezo effect). Depending on the application, this cycle of alternating expansion and contraction of the piezo element occurs between 50,000 and 100,000 times per second. The rapid vibration is passed on to a key-shaped resonator, which causes it to oscillate with a movement resembling that of a struck tuning fork. The ingenious design causes the tip of the resonator to execute elliptical propulsive movements thus the name of the company: Ellip as in ellipse and tec as in technology. A spring attached to the motor presses its tip onto the element to be driven, ensuring movement. Bit by bit, the tip pushes or pulls an element such as a plastic rod, each time moving it between 0.5 and 2 mi-
Visitors at this years Nuremberg Toy Fair were wide-eyed. The reason for their astonishment was a new toy locomotive that can raise and lower its pantograph just like a real train engine. Such fluid motion is made possible by a lightweight miniature piezoelectric motor. A revolutionary development, the device costs no more than a conventional electric motor but operates incomparably more precisely, and is also silent. Our motors have neither rotors nor gears, says Dr. Bjrn Magnussen, CEO of Elliptec Resonant Actuator AG in Dortmund, Germany, a company established in January 2001. Since theres no need to reduce any rotor momentum during braking, they come to a stop 60 times faster than electric motors when theyre switched off, and their braking distance is 2,000 times shorter. But the miniature drive system from Elliptec is ideal for far more than just model railways and the wiggling ears of animated bears, dolls and plastic puppies. The company expects the device to perform its preci-
crometers. Although the rod is moved only a few micrometers with each push, the tremendously fast repetition results in speeds of up to 15 centimeters per second or more. In an electric motor, on the other hand, slow movements are difficult to control electrically. The motor actually does not initially turn at all, but then starts up at a certain speed Dramatized portrayal of vibration
Mount
Elliptecs miniature motor looks like an aluminum key with steel springs and two power supply leads attached to it. Incorporated into a model train engine (top left), the piezoelectric drive ensures that the pantographs movements are smooth.
Press spring Piezo ceramic
Forward motion at tip Contact point (red)
Vibration element
Driven element, such as a plastic rod
Bearing
Minuscule
Motors
Bjrn Magnussen has managed it all. His miniature piezoelectric motors are precise, cost-effective, silent and light and they have excellent prospects worldwide.
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sion work in entirely different areas as well in general, wherever small parts have to be moved with little effort. That might include household appliances, cameras, printers, CD drives, medical and automotive applications in short, virtually anything you can imagine, says Magnussen enthusiastically. Piezoelectric motors are not entirely new; theyve been used in microchip manufacturing for several years now. But their price of up to $400 and sometimes more than $5,000 in the case of piezoelectric motors used for positioning systems in microscopes has thus far prevented them from being
hence the small, hardly visible jerky movements that result. The piezo motor, however, can move very slowly, evenly and silently. Thats because its micrometer increments result in virtually smooth movements. It is worth noting that both the miniature motor itself and the machine that joins together two of the three motors components (piezo ceramic and resonator frame) were developed completely in-house at Elliptec, which currently has a staff of 12 employees. In the first stage of the motors production, the centerpiece, which is a multilayered piezo ceramic from EPCOS measuring approximately half a centimeter in length, is automatically inserted into the two-centimeter-long aluminum resonator. The exact method for conducting this procedure remains a company secret. The steel springs and leads for the motor are still being attached to the device by hand. However, Elliptec is looking to automate these processes as well in the future, partly as an in-house project.
applied extensively. Researchers from Siemens, EPCOS and Elliptec were the first to achieve dramatic simplifications in the design, components and production process for the motors, thereby reducing the unit price to between two and four dollars. At that price, well soon be taking a lot of market share from manufacturers of electric motors, says Magnussen. Several years ago, during his tenure at Siemens Corporate Technology (CT) in Munich, Magnussen was already interested in piezo ceramics. He took part in an internal business-plan competition where he proposed the idea of using a new type of piezo technology worked out at CT as a basis for the development of a cost-effective motor suitable for mass production. He then won the opportunity to work with a team of researchers at the Siemens Technology-To-Business Center (TTB) in Berkeley, California. For me, that was the big chance to follow up on my project idea and implement it, says Magnussen. The TTB helped put together a research team, covered personnel costs, and equipped a laboratory. We also got extensive training and support in areas such as business development, patenting and starting a company, Magnussen recalls. After staying in Berkeley for a year and a half, Magnussen, who is now 35, returned to Germany. He brought with him not only his first prototypes, but also five TTB staffers. All of this was so convincing that he received three million euros in venture capital to start a company; half of it coming from Colognebased Intelligent Venture Capital GmbH and half from a technology investment association in Bonn both in Germany. Siemens currently holds 24.9 percent of Elliptic stock. We have a technological lead of at least two years so no one is going to catch up with us quickly, says Magnussen. Production of the first batch of miniature motors got under way in June of this year at Ceramics GmbH in Redwitz, Germany, a wholly owned Siemens subsidiary. The lots are still small, but orders from the toy and automotive industries could rapidly catapult output into the millions. Ulrike Zechbauer www.elliptec.com
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FEATURES
Researchers and Patents
Gustavo Deco wants to develop technical systems that can process information just as efficiently as their biological counterparts.
This is the seventh time Siemens has honored 12 Inventors of the Year. Altogether, these innovative minds have created more than 360 inventions ranging from automotive electronics to medical systems; from optical networks to computational neuroscience. The locations where these inventors work Austria, Germany, the UK, the U.S. and Canada reflect the extent to which Siemens is a global network of innovation. We are pleased to take this opportunity to introduce two inventors in this issues featured fields robotics and the Internet.
Modeling the Brain

The human brain is increasingly serving as a role model for technical systems. Gustavo Deco is an expert in this area.
Licenses in the Bag

Negotiating patent licenses on the international market takes nerves of steel, negotiation skills, prudence and a clear understanding of your companys strengths and weaknesses.
Dieter Reinhardt, head of the Siemens License Center, is a master negotiator. When Dieter Reinhardt crams hefty files into his briefcases as hes done so often in recent years he can be sure of one thing: the trip wont be boring. As chief negotiator and manager of the Siemens License Center, he conducts licensing negotiations with companies around the globe. Often this involves delving into the smallest details, and its not uncommon to spend days arguing over this or that passage in a patent. Particularly difficult are negotiations concerning the issuing of licenses related to new standards like the UMTS standard in mobile communications when each tenth of a percent in royalties amounts to millions of dollars. Whats more, those kinds of patents may be of interest to ten or more companies. This leads to an odyssey of negotiations spanning several continents that may last several years. Some licensing negotiations resemble a Middle Eastern bazaar, says Reinhardt as he describes these marathon meetings. In addition to meticulous attention to detail, they also require imagination and a thorough knowledge of all the technology Siemens has to offer. In many cases the whole issue turns out to hinge on a patent belonging to an entirely different Siemens Group. For example, a Siemens patent related to defense technology that reduces transmission power during transmission pauses to prevent the transmitter from being localized played a crucial role later in the development of mobile communication standards. It helped to reduce battery usage. Tracking down that sort of thing is ultimately what makes our work interesting, asserts Reinhardt, who passionately disagrees with those who consider this sort of work boring. And since there's always an interest in recruiting highly qualified new talent, another fact should not be overlooked. Because of the required double-track education, our job also pays well, he points out. But even the sharpest patent lawyers dont have to know it all. Theyre supported by a globally accessible database that documents the progress of all patent activities and contains information about all patents available to Siemens.
What exactly is happening in the mind of a person who is focusing intently on a particular object within a very complex environment? Which portions of the brain are interacting, and what processes are occurring? Such are the questions that preoccupy Dr. Gustavo Deco at Siemens research laboratories in Munich, Germany (see article on page 66). He has developed a model based on a comprehensive theory that makes it possible for the first time to study the brain at all three levels of neuroscience psychology, neurophysiology and neurobiology. Decos goal is to transfer human characteristics and capabilities to applications in medicine and technology, or at least to imitate them. As a case in point, Decos research could contribute materially to improvements in robots visual perception, to the design of powerful video monitoring systems, to improved interpretation of magnetic resonance tomography images, and to optimizing automotive navigation systems that can very rapidly and accurately recognize highway edge lines and other road markings or obstacles.
One of the Worlds Largest Patent Law Firms

With more than 220 patent specialists nine of them in the License Center Siemens Intellectual Property Department ranks among the worlds largest patent law firms. The department has a very respectable track record in licensing patents. Since the License Center was established in 1999, well over 100 licensing projects have been started. Twenty of these have already been successfully concluded. About 80 are in various stages of contacting potential licensees, negotiations, preparing contracts and preparing lawsuits. The departments experts predict that in a few years the annual volume of licensing agreements will be in the hundreds of millions of euros.
On the Road to the Petabit Router

If Internet traffic continues to grow at the current rate, it will soon be necessary to manage data flows of several terabits (1012 bits) or even petabits (1015 bits) per second. John Mansbridge is developing the equipment to do just that.
Billions of US$
Patent License Fees in the U.S.

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PA T E N T S
Fiber optic cables define his world. John Mansbridge designs systems for tomorrows Internet. At Roke Manor Research a Siemens business in the UK, John Mansbridge has developed a technology that makes it possible to manage incredible volumes of data with a minimum of hardware. The RipCore LightBus needs only 14 glass fibers to interconnect more than 100 transmission and receiving units in order to produce a total processing capacity of more than five terabits per second. A router that uses this technology and serves as a kind of switching system for the dataflows of the Internet requires less than one-fourth of the space needed by comparable systems and uses less than half as much power. LightBus architecture can be scaled up to 1.3 petabits (1,300 terabits) per second, thus making it possible to expand capacity stepby-step in line with changing needs costefficiently and without maintenance downtime. For more, see Building the Unlimited Expressway, page 35.
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 110 100 60 15 3 1980 1990 1993 1997 1999 2002
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Patent license fees are growing on a global scale. In the U.S. alone, their current level of $150 billion is fifty times larger than it was 20 years ago. But associated revenues are often accompanied by legal strife. In the U.S., for instance, the number of patent lawsuits has increased by about eight percent annually in recent years, to 2,400 in 2000. The number of licensing agreements reached without legal disputes can be assumed to be a multiple of this figure. Siemens has not been exempt from this trend the number of patent disputes in which the company is involved has doubled to 160 in the last ten years.
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FEATURES
Feedback and Preview
Preview Spring 2003
Would you like to know more about Siemens and our latest developments?
If so, we would be delighted to send you more information. Please check the box alongside the publication(s) you would like to receive and fax this sheet to +49 (0)911-978-3321, or mail it to: Siemens Business Services, Infoservice CS/Z0217, Postfach 2348, 90713 Frth, Germany, or send an e-mail to Karin.Hum@siemens.com. Please enter CS/Z0217 in the subject line of your e-mail. Pictures of the Future, Fall 2001 (English, German) Pictures of the Future, Spring 2002 (English, German) Solutions for the Cities of Tomorrow (English, German, Chinese) Annual Report Environmental Report Corporate Citizenship Report Further information on Siemens innovations can be found on the Internet at: www.siemens.com/newsdesk (weekly media service on innovations) www.siemens.com/innovationnews (monthly international R&D news) www.siemens.com/pof (Pictures of the Future on the Internet) www.research-innovation.com (R&D articles from Siemens) www.ct.siemens.com (Siemens Corporate Technology)
P r e v i e w
MATERIALS Molecular Miracles
New materials will transform our world. For instance, carbon nanotubes, which are 50,000 times thinner than a human hair and 1,000 times more conductive than copper, hold the potential for replacing silicon-based semiconductor technology. Other revolutions in the making include carbon molecules as organic photo-detectors, ceramic components built like bones, color-on-demand LEDs, new membranes for fuel cells, and turbine coatings that can withstand the highest temperatures.
SECURITY
Identity is Everything
In an increasingly mobile, networked world, the key question will be How can security be guaranteed? Answers are being provided by researchers developing intelligent surveillance cameras and building monitoring systems,
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secure data transmission systems, and face, iris and voice recognition systems.
MEDICINE
First name, last name
Perfecting Prevention
Healing is an intrinsic part of the practice of

Company
medicine. But wouldnt it be better to prevent illnesses from developing in the first place? Efficient processes for detecting and eliminating dangers at an early stage not only prolong life, but also lower health-care costs. Examples of such procedures include the application of virtual endoscopy to gastroenterology and cardiology, 3D ultrasound, retinal measurements, and biochip analyses.
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Publisher: Siemens AG Corporate Communications (CC) and Corporate Technology (CT) Wittelsbacherplatz 2, 80333 Munich For the publisher: Dr. Ulrich Eberl (CC), Dr. Dietmar Theis (CT) Editorial Office: Arthur F. Pease (Editor-in-Chief) Dr. Ulrich Eberl (Editor-in-Chief, German Edition) Dr. Norbert Aschenbrenner Ulrike Zechbauer Additional Authors in this Issue: Victor Chase, Tobias Hahn, Andreas Kleinschmidt, Ray Kurzweil, Bernd Mller, Dr. Jeanne Rubner, Dr. Hartmut Runge, Peggy Salz, Tim Schrder, Dr. Sylvia Trage, Dr. Evdoxia Tsakiridou Picture Editing: Judith Egelhof, Oliver Schmitt Photography: Kurt Bauer, Bernd Mller, Volker Steger
Layout / Lithography: Rigobert Ratschke, Bro Seufferle, Stuttgart Illustrations: Natascha Rmer, Stuttgart Claudius Kemper, Hanover Graphics: Jochen Haller, Bro Seufferle Translation: Transform GmbH, Cologne Printing: BechtleDruckZentrum, Esslingen Printed in Germany. Reproduction of the articles in whole or in part requires the permission of the editorial office. This also applies to storage in electronic databases, on the Internet and reproduction on CD-ROM.
Further Information: www.siemens.com/pof Picture Credits: DFKI Deutsches Forschungszentrum fr Knstliche Intelligenz GmbH (2), Voith Paper Fiber Systems GmbH&Co. KG (12), DaimlerChrysler AG (13, 15), IMM Institut fr Mikrotechnik Mainz GmbH (18), Fraunhofer IZM (20 top, 21), Fraunhofer IPA (27, 28), November AG (30 bottom, 31, 77/1), C-Lab (42), Private (49, 72), Christian Dumont/ Agentur LAIF (50, 51 left), Jean-Michel Clajot/ Agentur LAIF (51 right), DLR Deutsches Zentrum fr Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (62-63), Sam Ogden/ Agentur Focus (66, 70), NEC Corp./ Personal Robot Center (69), Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (71 below), Transit Film GmbH (73 bottom), OMM Inc. (77/2), Setrix AG (77/3), webwasher.com AG (77/4), EnOcean GmbH (77/5), Elliptec Resonant Actuator AG (77/6, 78). Copyright of all other images is held by Siemens AG. The articles in this issue contain statements that do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher. In addition, this publication contains forward-looking statements for which Siemens can, under no circumstances, offer guarantees. 2002 by Siemens AG. All rights reserved. Siemens Aktiengesellschaft Order number: A19100-F-P092-X-7600 ISSN 1618-5498

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Pictures of the Future

INDUSTRY INTERNET ROBOTS

Digital Factories Networks of the Future Machines with Emotions

PICTURES OF THE FUTURE

PICTURES OF THE FUTURE

Streamlining Research in Dynamic Innovation Networks

Networks of the Future

Machines with Emotions

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Pictures of the Future | Fall 2002

Floor cleaning Vacuufloor robots Home delivery box Biometric recognition

Communications and remote diagnostics

Intelligent waste center Mobile household appliances

Many Global Brands from a Single Source

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The Magic of Virtuality

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The Road from Increasing Computing Power to Distributed Intelligence

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Interview with DaimlerChrysler

Fuzzy Logic Puts Industrial Processes on Autopilot

Simulating Factories and Industrial Processes

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Interview with DaimlerChrysler

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The Micro Revolution in the Chemical Industry

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Transfor ming Production

with Tiny Transponders

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Polyaniline ( )n Polyhydroxystyrene (PHS)

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I'm Pump 235

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ARVIKA: Putting Data in the Picture

AR superimposes relevant and location-specific information from a digital data-

World Market for Automation Technology by Sector

Building automation 110

Total sales volume: 300 billion euros

World Market for Automation Technology by Region

North America 100

Total sales volume: 300 billion euros

Pictures of the Future | Fall 2002

Pictures of the Future | Fall 2002

Visualizing Tomorrows Industrial Environments

Number of Industrial Robots Worldwide (Estimated from 2002)

Japan European Union

United States All other countries

World Sensor Market

Source: Siemens Automation and Drives

The global market for sensors