The Philippine Political Situation

August 2008 By the La Liga Policy Institute

Real and Deep Socio-Economic and Political Crises Exist

Key Issues of the Day

The Rice and Food Crisis Record High Fuel Prices Record High Poverty and Hunger The GRP-MILF Peace Deal The Revival of Charter Change The Upcoming 2010 Elections

Worsening Poverty and Hunger

From SWS: 6 out of 10 Filipinos or 59% (about)10.6 million, rate themselves as Poor 24% put themselves on the Borderline For the 1st Quarter of 2008: Highest ever Self-Rated Poverty now at 59% (increased by 9% from last years and by 13% from previous quarter) From Pulse Asia: Majority of Filipinos or 71% consider themselves to be very poor/poor and that their quality of life has worsened since last year

Unabated Increases in the Prices of Basic Commodities

Consumer prices rose to near 17-year high in July (NSO) Projected 12.2% inflation for the year is higher than the BSP forecast By June, inflation is already at 11.4% a 14-year high Poverty Threshold From SWS, the median poverty threshold (the monthly budget that poor households need in order not to consider themselves poor) for Metro Manila is P10,000; for the rest of Luzon, P6,000; in the Visayas, P7,500; and in Mindanao, P7,500. Given the rise in the prices of basic goods (57%) since 2000, P10,000 today is equivalent only to P6,369. This is a throw-back to living standards of 20 years ago.

How the Poor Cope

Cutting down the number of meals Sleeping through meal times Mothers eating smaller portions Skipping meals so the rest of the family will get to eat Giving children to the care of relatives/sympathetic souls Replacement Ulam Salt, soy sauce, bagoong Pork, chicken lard Instant noodles drowned in plenty of water Restaurant left-overs cooked again (pagpag, batchoy, kaning-baboy)

Bottom-Low Credibility of the National Leadership

SWS: -50% net satisfaction rating Corruption: Philippines most corrupt in Asia 25 percent of the annual national budget ends up in corruption (PSLink) ZTE, COMELEC, Fertilizer Scam, Swine Scam Many corruption cases has been exposed and yet there have been no convictions and case resolution

PULSE Asia

Despite these conditions, GMA's administration survived the many attempts to remove her from power. The GMA administration has consistently proven its adeptness in crisis management that ensures her political survival.

GMA's Key Strategies

BLAMING EXTERNAL/GLOBAL Situation: Philippine Crisis is a reflection of the Global Food and Commodity Crisis
GMA in her SONA speech:

Malapit na sana tayo sa pagbalanse ng budget. We were retiring debts in great amounts, reducing the drag on our country's development, habang namumuhunan sa taong bayan. Biglang-bigla, nabaligtad ang ekonomiya ng mundo. Ang pagtalon ng presyo ng langis at pagkain ay nagbunsod ng pandaigdigan krisis, the worst since the Great Depression and the end of World War II. Some blame speculators moving billions of dollars from subprime mortgages to commodities like fuel and food. Others point of the very real surge in demand as millions of Chinese and Indians move up to the middle class. Whatever the reasons, we are on a roller coaster ride of oil price hikes, high food prices and looming economic recession in the US and other markets. Uncertainty has moved like a terrible tsunami around the globe, wiping away gains, erasing progress.

GMA's Key Strategies

Distribution of Direct Transfers and Subsidies
From SONA:
P2B pambayad ng koryente ng apat na 4M mahihirap P1B para college scholarship o pautang sa 70,000 na estudyanteng maralita P.5B pautang upang palitan ng mas matipid na LPG, CNG o biofuel ang motor ng libu-libong jeepney P.5B pampalit sa fluorescent sa mga pampublikong lugar Rice distribution, seeds and fertilizers for farmers

Character of the Political Conjuncture

Opposition politicians and the public are focused on the race to 2010
From Pulse Asia: De Castro and Erap Estrada lead the presidentiables VP de Castro: 22% President Estrada: 16% Senators Francis Chiz Escudero: 14% Loren Legarda: 14% Manuel Manny B. Villar: 12% Manuel Mar Roxas: 8% Escudero and Legarda lead the vice-presidential race Escudero: 25% Legarda: 23% 5% to 11% range includes: Sen. Francis Kiko Pangilinan, Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, Makati Mayor Jejomar Jojo Binay, Sen. Ramon Bong Revilla, and Batangas Governor Vilma Ate Vi Santos.

Weakened Protest Movement

While GMAs popularity sinks to an all-time high, this didnt translate to public outrage. No sustained protest initiatives. All major transport strikes failed. Only 7,000 people were in the SONA rally.

Cha-Cha Remains as GMAs Post 2010 Option

Objectives of Cha-Cha: Achieve a shift from Presidential to Parliamentary form of government in 2010; and, Allow GMA to stay in government minimum as member of the Parliament, ultimately as Prime Minister.

Scenarios for Cha-Cha: New Approaches to Cha-Cha

Cha-Cha Steps
Surgical Amendment Constituent Assembly

GRP-MILF Peace Agreement presents an opportunity to pursue Cha-Cha

The assertion of GRP that the peace agreement becomes binding only when the constitution is amended. The prerequisite of a plebiscite for the ratification of the peace agreement The estimated one year period needed for the GRP and MILF to conclude a peace agreement and submit it to a plebiscite maybe the same time to be used by the administration to orchestrate a parallel cha-cha operation

Highlights of GRP-MILF MOA

Acknowledges the right to self-governance of the Bangsamoro people (creation of a state within a state) Recognition of ancestral domain as the core principle in determining jurisdiction/territory Both Parties agree that the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (BJE) shall have the authority and jurisdiction over the Ancestral Domain and Ancestral Lands Covers at least 1,700 communities within all existing ARMM provinces, parts of North Cotabato, Zamboanga Sibuguey, Iligan City and Palawan The BJE, and the Central Government agree on wealth-sharing based on a mutually agreed percentage ratio in favor of the BJE through an economic cooperation agreement or arrangement

MOA Suppoters and Opposition

PRO
International Community US, Japan, Australia, OIC, Malaysia Religious Leaders- Cotabato Bishop Quevedo, CDO Bishop Ledesma, UlamaChristian Peace Advocates Mindanao NGOs- AFRIM, AMIN, BALAY, IID, etc.. Muslim Political Leaders- Rasul, Datumanong, Sema, Dilanggalen, Hataman

ANTI
Mindanao Politicians- Pinol Brothers, Lobregat, Cruz Manila Politicians- Locsin, UNO, Liberal Party A few columnists of major broadsheets

Accommodation of the Political Opposition

To ensure acceptability of cha-cha, the administration is pursuing accommodation of the political opposition thru: Letting Erap and all presidentiables run for 2010 but under a Parliamentary set up. Providing rewards in pending electoral protests of the opposition (e.g. Koko Pimentel to become a member of the Senate) Ensuring term extension for LGU officials

Pimentels Federalism Bill

Proposes to set up 11 federal states
Northern Luzon, Central Luzon, Southern Tagalog, Bicol, Minparom (Mindoro, Palawan, Romblon) Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, Western Visayas, Northern Mindanao, Southern Mindanao, and the State of Bangsamoro

Proposes a power sharing scheme between the central government and the Federal states Bill has been endorsed by at least 15 Senators

The resolution also calls for the election of six senators in each of the 11 component federal states. Nine other senators will be elected to represent the Filipinos overseas. This will expand the membership of the Senate from the current 24 to 75 members, according to the resolution. Members of the House of Representatives will be elected by district but limited to a maximum of 350. The resolution provides that the senators will serve for a term of six years and congressmen, three years. The senators will be limited to two terms and congressmen, four terms.

Projected Timetable for Cha-Cha

December 2008 - Congressional Approval June 2009 - Supreme Court Approval September 2009 - National Plebiscite May 2010 - National Elections under a parliamentary form of government

Unless the crisis translates to massive peoples protest and broader anti-GMA opposition, GMA will be able to politically consolidate around cha-cha and consequently around her post 2010 option.

- end of presentation