Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| January 02, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Wednesday| January 02, 2013

Highlights

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX
5950.9 19580.8

as on January 01, 2013 Prev. day

1.2 1.4

US law makers could avert the fiscal cliff issue of the nation. The bill was passed in the Senate yesterday with 89-8 votes casted.

WoW
1.6 1.7

MoM
1.2 1.2

YoY
28.7 26.7

Asian markets are trading on a firm note on optimism that the US law makers might be able to avert the fiscal cliff issue of the nation. The US Senate has passed the bill yesterday. But the bill is now to be passed in the House of Representatives. Republicans who control the house expressed apprehension over the deal as it included tax increases on top earners of $620 billion and only $12 billion in spending cuts.

DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Jan13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Jan13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Jan13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield

13104.14 13104.14 1426.2 16273.4 1997.1 60952.1 10395.2 1677.10 3037.50 7944.25

1.3 1.3 1.7 -0.4 0.5 8.3 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.6

-0.3 -0.3 0.7 -0.4 0.8 -0.1 -0.1 1.1 1.8 1.6

0.6 0.6 0.71 5.3 4.4 7.8 11.7 -2.9 -11.6 0.5

6.7 6.7 13.4 10.0 9.4 7.8 23.4 8.9 11.4 4.2

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) remained volatile throughout the day. The index ended 0.1 percent higher as the US law makers were not able to strike a deal to avert the fiscal cliff issue of the nation. This caused risk aversion amongst the global market participants and increased the demand for the low yielding currency that is US Dollar Index. The US law makers were very close to striking a deal but towards the end of the session they failed to arrive on an agreement. US equities settled higher in yesterdays session. Equities witnessed selling pressure in the early part of the session but gained thereafter on hopes that the US lawmakers might be able to arrive upon an agreement to avert the fiscal cliff issue of the nation. US law makers were very near a decision but they could strike a deal. The index touched an intra-day high of 79.96 and closed at 79.87 on Monday.

100.65

0.4

0.5

1.0

-0.9

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Dec12 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Dec12 Futures (MCX-SX)
79.87 54.68

as on January 01, 2013 Prev. day

0.1 0.6

WoW
0.2 0.6

MoM
-0.4 -0.8

YoY
-1.3 -3.1

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated 0.6 percent on Tuesday reversing earlier losses on account of selling of dollars by the exporters. The rupee also derived strength from the positive sentiments created after the US law makers agreed upon a deal which might avert the fiscal cliff issue of the nation. But, increase in the current account deficit restricted gains in the rupee in yesterdays session. Most of the overseas markets remained closed which restricted sharp movement in the rupee. The rupee closed at 54.68 after touching an intra-day high of 54.66 on Tuesday. For the current month 2013 FII inflows totaled at Rs. 871.50 crores till 1st January 2013. While year to date basis, net capital inflows for the year 2013 stood at Rs. Rs. 871.50 crores. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate due to firm global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Sustained capital inflows from the foreign institution are also expected to keep the rupee appreciated.

54.90 54.90

54.99 54.99

54.72 54.72

55.72 55.72

52.79 52.79

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Jan13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for January 02, 2013 Support 54.90/54.78 Resistance 55.15/55.30

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Wednesday| January 02, 2013

Euro/INR
Euro gained 0.1 percent due to rise in the risk appetite after US fiscal cliff issue was passed in the Senate which would help avert the $600 billion deficit and worries of automatic spending cuts and tax hikes. The volumes in the global markets remained lower on the occasion of Bank holiday due to New Year celebrations. The currency touched an intraday high of 1.322 and closed at 1.3204 on Tuesday. . Outlook In todays session we expect Euro to appreciate due to optimism that the US fiscal cliff deal which was passed in the Senate yesterday might be passed in the House of Representative today. Additionally, weakness in the DX along with favorable economic data from the region might act as a supportive factor for currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Jan13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 72.55/72.35 72.95/73.15 valid for January 02, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Dec 12 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Dec12 Futures (MCX-SX)
1.3204 72.52

as on January 01, 2013 Prev. day

0.1 0.0

WoW
0.2 0.1

MoM
1.7 -1.9

YoY
2.0 #N/A

72.72 72.7

0.00 0.01

0.00 0.00

1.71 1.72

4.85 4.87

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
The Pound remained flat as the global markets remained closed on the occasion of Bank holiday due to New Year celebrations. The currency touched an intra-day high of 1.632 and closed at 1.6243 on Tuesday.

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Dec12 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Dec 12 Futures (MCX-SX)
1.6243

as on January 01, 2013

Prev. day
0.0

WoW
0.7

MoM
1.5

YoY
4.6

88.811 89.28

-0.28 0.23

0.22 0.24

0.99 1.33

7.44 7.61

Outlook In todays session, we expect Pound to trade with upward bias on the back of firm global market sentiments along with hopes that house of Representative might approve the fiscal cliff agreed upon yesterday by the Senate. Favorable data from the nation along with weakness in the DX is also expected to support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Dec 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for January 02, 2013 Support 89.05/88.80 Resistance 89.45/89.60

89.28

0.23

0.24

1.33

7.61

Source: Reuters

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Wednesday| January 02, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated 0.1 percent in yesterdays session due to positive sentiments that the Bank of Japan may adopt further monetary easing steps to boost the economy. However the volumes remained thin due to Bank holiday on the occasion of New Year celebrations. The currency touched a high of 86.53 and closed at 86.67 on Tuesday.
Last JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Nov12 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Nov12 Futures (MCX-SX)
86.67

as on January 01, 2013 Prev day

-0.1

WoW
2.3

MoM
5.1

YoY
12.6

0.6314 63.67 63.67

-0.11 -2.24 -0.60

-2.47 -2.24 -2.25

-5.00 -4.79 -4.70

-8.89 -8.53 -8.52

Outlook For the intra-day, we expect to yen to remain range bound as the markets remain closed on the observance of 4-day Bank holiday. Technical Chart JPY

Source: Reuters

Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Jan 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for January 02, 2013 Support 63.48/63.30 Resistance 63.90/64.11

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on January 02, 2013

Indicator Bank Holiday Bank Holiday German Prelim CPI m/m Spanish Manufacturing PMI Italian Manufacturing PMI Manufacturing PMI ISM Manufacturing PMI Country JPY CNY EUR EUR EUR GBP US Time (IST) All day All day All Day 1:45pm 2:15pm 3:00pm 8:30pm Actual Forecast 0.7% 44.9 45.4 49.2 50.2 Previous -0.1% 45.3 45.1 49.1 49.5 Impact Low Low Medium Medium Medium High High

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