Escolar Documentos
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111 - 122
Contents
6.
Energy Scenarios
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
1.
2.
International Energy Outlook 2011 : Selected data Indian Renewable Energy Sector Indian Nuclear Energy Sector Indian Power Sector Indian Coal Sector Indian Gas Sector Indian Oil Sector
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91 - 110
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13 - 32 31 - 40 53 - 90 41 - 52 1 - 12
R.K. Sachdev Former Advisor (Coal) to Government of India President, Coal Preparation Society of India A well-acclaimed Coal & Energy Expert, Mr. R K Sachdev is a qualified Mining Engineer from the prestigious Indian School of Mines and a Chartered Engineer. He is credited with vast experience in coal, mining, energy, environment and policy related fields and many senior positions in the Indian coal industry and with Government of India. He also served the US Department of Energy-USAID, India, the World Bank and also the Expenditure Reforms Commission constituted by the Government of India. He is the Founder President of Coal Preparation Society of India and a Member of the IOC of the International Coal Preparation Congress. He is a Fellow of Institution of Engineers (India), Member, Mining, Geological & Metallurgical Institute, India and Member, Polish Mineral Engineering Society.
2012
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India's coal dependence is borne from the fact that 54 % of the total installed electricity generation capacity is coal based and 67% of the capacity planned to be added during the 11th Five year Plan period (2007-12), is coal based. Furthermore, over 70 % of the electricity generated is from coal based power plants. In order to achieve economic growth of 8-9% in terms of GDP, country's total coal demand, even after allowing for the slippages that have occurred in the current plan period, has been projected to increase from the present ~ 730 million tons in 2010-11 to ~ 2,000 million tons in 2031-32. Of this, about 75 % of coal would go to power plants. Given the projected increase in coal requirement, the domestic coal industry alone can not fully meet the demand. Present demandsupply gap is around 85 million tons and it is expected to increase gradually to nearly 140 million tons by 2017. M i n i st r y o f C o a l h a s t h e o ve ra l l responsibility of determining polices and strategies in respect of exploration and development of coal and lignite reserves, sanctioning of important projects of high value and for deciding all related issues. These key functions are exercised through its Central govt. public sector undertakings, viz. Coal India limited(CIL), Nevyeli Lignite Corporation(NLC) limited and Singareni Collieries Company limited(SCCL), a joint sector undertaking of Government of Andhra Pradesh and Government of India with equity capital in the ratio of 51:49 respectively.
Sector Electricity (A) Iron & Steel Cement Others Non- elect. (B) Total (A) + (B) 2005-06 2006-07 310 43 20 53 116 426 341 43 25 51 119 460
2500 2000
Million tons
2012
Table-1 : Projected Coal Demand (Million Tons) 2011-12 2016-17 539 69 32 91 192 731 836 104 50 135 289 1,125 2021-22 1,040 112 95 143 350 1,390 2026-27 1,340 120 125 158 403 1,743 2031-32 1,659 150 140 272 562 2,221
Figures for 2011-12 and 2016-17 are of the Working Group for 11th Five Year Plan's estimate and for 2031-32 are of the Integrated Energy Policy Report. Figures for intervening years have been extrapolated.
On the domestic production front, Coal India Ltd is the largest contributor accounting for 81 % of country's coal production. Of the balance, 9.5 % comes from the Singareni Collieries Company Ltd (jointly owned by the central government and the state government of Andhra Pradesh) and the remaining comes from privately operated collieries and the captive coal mines. Small mines in the northeastern state of Meghalaya also add about 6 million tons to the total production. (Table 2)
Table - 2: Domestic Coal Production Plan: (million tons) 11th Five Year Plan X Plan 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Projected# Actual 361.02 379.49 403.73 431.00 431.32 447.00 44.54 37.71 40.64 50.00 51.33 51.00 19.29 26.00 30.03 38.00 36.30 43.00 7.04 8.95 7.20 7.02 7.00 7.21 5.79 5.60 5.96 5.70 6.09 6.00 430.85 **450.00 19.15 456.40 **502.00 45.6 493.21 553 .00 59.79 531.90 604 .00 72.10 532.06 630 .00 97.94 554.00 670 (?) 116
Entity
12th Plan 2016-17 664 45 304 (?) 7 6 1,026 (?) 1,125 (?) 99 (?)
*Demand given in the table is as originally projected for 11th Plan period. ** Assessed demand including imported coal. # Coal India has lowered their production target for FY 2011-12.
Presently the country imports about 85 million tons of coal. Out of this, about 25 million tons is metallurgical coking coal for the iron & steel industry. The balance is thermal coal used by power plants (50%), cement industry (17%) and other industries (33%). Presently, main sources of thermal coal imports are Indonesia, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. Canada, Mozambique and the USA are amongst the emerging supply sources. Present coal handling capacity at the ports is around 85-90 million tons per annum. This has to be augmented to at least 120 million tons per annum in next two years. Further it has to be doubled the present capacity by the end of the 12th Five Year Plan period. As on April 2011, India's inventory of coal resource was 284 Billion Tons (BT) comprising of: Proven 113 BT; Indicated 137 BT and Inferred 34 BT. In recent past there has been a slant criticism of the reliability of India's coal resource base. Geological Survey of India (a 160 years old institution) gives the estimate based on data captured by them plus inputs obtained from various public and private agencies involved in carrying out coal exploration. It is being claimed that if India's coal resources are re-estimated on UNFC methodology these would be much lower than the official stated figure. This is a wrong and nontenable statement. A mere change in methodology of estimation will not materially change the total numbers.
Coal Resources:
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Only error margin in the present system of estimation (ISP System) is to the extent that it does not account for the coal reserves that have been extracted so far. Even today if the total coal produced in the country in last 110 years is deducted from the total resource it will not make any material change in the total figure. (Table3a & 3b)
Table - 3a : Indias Coal inventory of Gondwana coal (as on 1.4.2011) Million tons Proved Indicated Inferred Andhra Pradesh 9296.85 9728.37 3029.36 Assam 0 2.79 0 Bihar 0 0 160 Chhattisgarh 12878.99 32390.38 4010.88 Jharkhand 39760.73 32591.56 6583.69 Madhya Pradesh 8871.31 12191.72 2062.70 Maharashtra 5489.61 3094.29 1949.51 Orissa 24491.71 33986.96 10680.21 Sikkim 0 58.25 42.98 Uttar Pradesh 866.05 195.75 0 West Bengal 11752.54 13131.69 5070.69 Total 113407.79 137371.76 33590.02 Source: Ministry of coal State Table - 3b : Indias coal inventory of tertiary coal (as on 1.4.2011) State
Arunachal Pradesh Assam Meghalaya Nagaland Total
2012
Total 22054.58 2.79 160 49280.25 78935.98 23125.73 10533.41 69158.88 101.23 1061.80 29954.92 284369.57
With over 90 % of domestic coal production coming from government controlled mines, the present institutional structure is a near monopoly. Although the government has allocated over 200 coal blocks for development by private / public entities out side the government owned coal companies but progress has not been promising. In order to bring about competition and transparency the government is working hard in getting an effective regulatory framework in place. Captive mining policy was introduced in 1993 as an interregnum to full and unrestricted opening of coal sector to private investment. For various reasons, out of over 200 coal blocks containing coal reserve of over 50 billion tons and with an aggregate ultimate annual production capacity of ~ 550 million tons, have not yielded promised coal production. Only some 30 odd mines have commenced production that contributed merely 36.30 million tons in FY 2010-11 against a target of 104 million tons. This shortfall has also led to shortfall in the availability of coal in the country. (Table 4)
Table - 4 : Overall allocation captive Blocks (As on February 2011) Number of Blocks Geological Reserve In Billion Tons allocated Public sector companies I. Power 53 18.92 Power - UMMPP 4.85 12 II. Commercial mining 39 7.31 4 1.71 III. Iron & Steel Sub Total I + II + III (A) 108 32.79 Private companies Power 28 5.01 61 8.60 Iron & Steel 6 0.63 Cement Coal - to - Liquid 3.00 2 0.39 2 Others Sub Total (B) 100 17.63 Grand Total (A + B) 208 50.42 Sector / End use
Issues pertaining to captive mining that require immediate resolution and attention of the government and other stakeholders inter - alia include: a. b. c. d. e. f. Contentious issues to be resolved Facilitating availability of geological data Augmentation of exploration efforts Expediting land acquisition and resolution of R & R issues Forestry, environment and related clearances Getting mining leases etc
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As a part of further reforming the coal sector, government has since decided to allocate any further coal blocks through a transparent open bidding system. Presently, government is engaged in consulting all the stakeholders for framing the rules for introduction of auction based allocation of coal blocks. Issues pertaining to captive mining that require immediate resolution and attention of the government and other stakeholders are also being addressed at highest level. Notwithstanding any of these reasons, if a country's coal demand has to be met, there is no option but to expedite the development of these blocks which were allotted hoping that the private developers would be in a better position to deal with various issues and bottlenecks and getting faster output of coal. The government is reported to be working towards opening up of the coal sector without any restriction on the marketing of coal. This, however, would happen only after legislative approval, which is likely to take some more time. In addition to the captive developers, the public sector coal companies that are contributing > 90 % of total production also need immediate support in taking measures for increasing coal production from existing and new mines. The institutional set up and management of the Indian coal industry has been a subject of debate every now and then. In recent past, the government had set up a committee to study the coal industry's problems and come out with recommendations with a view to making the coal sector more self reliant in terms of technical management capability so as to function in a competitive environment. This committee has identified the following areas that need to be addressed: Speeding up exploration by opening it to private sector Productivity Improvement & Increasing share of UG Mines Institutional Capability Coal Washing & Transportation Environmental Approval Issues Climate Change Issues Governance and Regulation R&D in Coal Technologies and New Resources
2012
Indian coals by their very nature are high in ash content but low in sulphur content. Power plants complain of high ash content, inconsistent quality and size. Main reason of this is that over 87% of coal is produced from mechanized open pit mines where there is a pronounced degree of out of seam dilution. After a long and protracted debate that lasted for over 30 years 'whether to wash' or 'not to wash thermal coal for power plants, the government has decided that all coal supplied to power plants (except for pit-head stations) should be washed at the mine mouth. Accordingly, Coal India Ltd. has initiated a mega plan of setting up of some 20 odd coal washeries of an aggregate throughput capacity of over 110 million tons per year on.
These washeries would be set up on 'Build, Operate and Maintain' (B O M) basis and is estimated to cost CIL~ Rs. 4500 crore or USD 1.0 billion. As a precursor to the recent IPO that helped Coal India to garner over Rs 15200 crore from its maiden public issue, the company having realized the commercial importance of 'coal quality' had in its pre-IPO road-shows declared that it would set up adequate washing facilities to ensure the quality of coal supplies to all consumers. Some end users like power utilities, iron & steel makers, cement producers are also setting up their captive washing plants to improve the quality of coal. Going by the foregoing developments one can hope that the contentious issue of coal quality will be a thing of past in coming 5 to 7 years. Hitherto, the development of new coal mines was taking place wherever transport infrastructure for evacuation of coal and its further transportation to various designated destinations could be managed without much of a problem. With the increased demand, more and more new and far-flung coalfields are being taken up for development to meet the increasing demand of coal in the country. Initially such developments can go along with road transport. But road haulage is not easy due to lack of road infrastructure of adequate strength. This highlights the need for development of railway facilities for all such locations. Similarly, for handling and transportation of increasing volumes of imported coal, integrated port and railway infrastructure has to be established. The adverse impact of increased CO2 emissions from increasing use of coal in thermal power stations and other industries is well known. Climate change issues are being debated globally particularly in the context of increasing growth rate in countries like India and China where energy supply is heavily coaldependent. In this backdrop, adoption of Super Critical steam parameters in Ultra Mega Power Plants and other plants is definitely a step forward. It is time for the government not to allow any new coal based power plant with sub critical steam parameters. To sum up, in a heavily coal dependent economy like India continuously widening demand - supply gap of coal is a matter of serious concern and steps should be taken for increasing domestic coal production for long term energy security. Solution inter alia lies in accelerated development of captive coal block and for this, outstanding issues must be resolved early. A strong domestic coal production and delivery system would be imperative if the country has to achieve the goal of energy self-sufficiency and longterm energy security. An independent coal regulator is required to create confidence in the mind of private investors and to provide them a level playing field. Coal imports are set to increase. This calls for securing coal prospects abroad and development of port capacity with matching inland transport infrastructure. To contain carbon emissions, the coal-energy chain has to be clean and environmentally acceptable. For this, the impact of the increased use of fossil energy sources has to be enjoined in the policy framework so as to guard against any negative environmental trade-off in future particularly in the context of global climate change concerns. *****
Summing Up:
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2012
Opportunities
(i) A fast growing economy offers a huge domestic market (with relatively inelastic demand) for coal. (ii) Bulk of power generation is coal based and likely to remain so in the foreseeable future. (iii) As other energy sectors viz. oil and gas, power etc. have been opened up, opening up of coal sector for private investment will give a big boost to the sector. (iv) Wide gap between the price of domestic coal and that in the international market should give comfort to domestic industry and encourage higher investment in the sector.
Threats
(i) De lays in obtaining statutor y clearances (environment and forest) and land acquisition cause delays in the commissioning of new coal project. (ii) Law and order problem in some of the Eastern States can adversely impact coal production and movement. (iii) Delay in the development of coal blocks allotted to new players (both public and private sector) would place intense pressure on public sector companies. (iv) Opposition from various quarters to the opening up of coal sector to private sector investment for commercial mining will impede speedier growth of the sector.
2012
9
(Million Metric Tonnes) Others * 23.67 26.89 34.02 36.89 36.64 43.564 47.68 50.97 44.199 35.955 43.374 50.109 46.457 63.214 73.251 78.549 64.58 110.200 Total 71.23 77.66 100.15 105.53 141.45 203.424 213.36 232.33 298.62 349.74 361.745 379.405 407.408 433.257 462.324 502.66 537.79 587.48
* Includes jute, bricks, coal for soft coke, colliery, fertilisers & other industries consumption. @From 1996-97 and onwards Cotton includes 'Rayon'also
600.00
2012
500.00
Million Tons
400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 1 970-7 1 19 72-73 1974 -75 1 976-7 7 19 78-79 1980 -81 1 982-8 3 19 84-85 1986 -87 1 988-8 9 19 90-91 1992 -93 1 994-9 5 19 96-97 1998 -99 2 000-0 1 20 02-03 2004 -05 2 006-0 7 20 08-09 Paper 0.00
Electricity
Cement
Others *
10
Million Metric Tons Net Imports (Import - Export) - 0.470 - 0.620 - 0.050 0.850 0.450 4.250 4.800 5.810 12.697 18.645 21.743 20.056 24.754 35.540 41.530 48.167 57.590 65.573
80 70 60
Million Tons
50 40 30 20 10
2012
1976-77
1979-80
2006-07
Imports
Exports
2009-10
1970-71
1973-74
1982-83
1985-86
1988-89
1991-92
1994-95
1997-98
2000-01
2003-04
11
2012
250 200 Index 150 100 50 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Coke 0
Coal
Lignite
Coking Coal
12
INDIAN
Ranjan Ghosh Former Executive Director GAIL India Limited Mr. Ranjan Ghosh, Former Executive Director (GAIL Ltd.), with a masters degree in Engineering, has over 36 years experience in Oil and Gas sector. He was with GAIL Limited for 27 years and successfully led many of GAIL's prestigious projects across various functions including planning, project execution and marketing. Major projects included Gas pipeline control, metering and automation projects, including SCADA and application programs, commissioned gas processing plants & large number of gas terminals.
2012
13
In last decade, Indian economy has shown India GDP Growth Rates incredible growth. Steadily and slowly, India is gaining strategic importance globally owing to the 12.0 9.7 9.5 9.0 8.6 10.0 7.4 impressive economic growth pattern and market 6.7 8.0 attractiveness. After coming out successfully from 6.0 4.0 the financial crisis, Indian economy is set to 2.0 0.0 demonstrate robust growth again with the GDP growth rate of around 8.6 percent for 2010-11. Estimated GDP growth rate for 2011-12 is expected to be over 9%. Even as developed economies grapple with slow economic growth and rising sovereign risk currently, emerging economies such as China and India are witnessing robust economic growth and strong demand for clean and economical energy. In the long run, powerful trends continue to shape the modern energy economy- industrialization, urbanization and motorization.
6 7 8 9 0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -1 05 06 07 08 09 20 20 20 20 20
With growing economy, there will be more energy consumption in the country which will result in increased share of natural gas in India's energy basket. With a targeted GDP growth rate of over 9 %, India's energy demand is expected to grow at 5.2 per cent. Currently, India is the world's 5th largest energy consumer accounting for about 4.1% of the world's total annual energy consumption and moving fast enough to become the third largest consumer by PRIMARY ENERGY PER CAPITA 2025 after US and China. The current per capita (kg oil equivalent, 2008; source: BP 2010 and World Bank 2010) 12000 energy consumption of India is 0.5 toe as compared 10000 to the world average of 1.9 toe, and this indicates a 8000 high potential for energy consumption. Per capita consumption of India is expected to reach 1.22 toe 6000 by 2030. China and India are two Asian nations which 4000 are expected to show highest energy consumption 2000 0 growth rate in coming years, owing to rapid World Norway US Russia New Japan Germany China India urbanization and consequent high demand. Zealand avereage With the massive rate of urbanization, the demand for energy has grown manifold in the past few years and will continue to grow in future. Last decade also showed tremendous growth in Indian gas sector and gas has slowly emerged as a primary source of energy for India along with coal and oil. The demand of natural gas has sharply increased in the last two decades. In India natural gas was first discovered off
2012
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10
-1
the west coast in 1970s, and today, it constitutes 10% of India's total energy consumption. As per BP statistical review 2010, the share of natural gas is expected to reach 20% by 2025 from current 10%. As per the global consulting firm McKinsey, by 2015 Indian gas market is likely to be as large as Japan which is currently the largest consumer of LNG in Asia region. In its Reference Scenario, the IEA expects Indian gas demand to increase to 94 billion cubic meters by 2020 and to 132 billion cubic meters by 2030, driven by the industrial and power generation sectors. This means an annual increase of 5.4% one of the highest in the world.
Coal 52%
Coal 51%
Gas 10%
Hydro Nuclear 5% 1%
As a result of the size and growth of the economy, India is expected to play a key role in global energy markets including natural gas markets. In fact, gas suppliers now will look to India and China to provide growth instead of other developed markets like USA or Europe. As a result of growth in demand and supply, Indian gas sector offers large value creation potential across upstream, midstream and downstream of gas value chain. In the next five years alone, for instance, these opportunities will grow to a revenue potential of USD 50 billion from USD 25 billion today, with a corresponding growth in EBIDTA to USD 30 billion from USD 15 billion today. Current consumption of gas in India is around 166 MMSCMD. Power sector is the anchor customer for gas sector which consumes almost 37 % of the total supply where as fertilizer sector consumes around 23%. Sector wise consumption of gas in India is given in the table.
2012
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2012
Sourcing of gas was primarily dependent on domestic sources till date. But due to the limited supply, customers are slowly moving towards importing LNG. Sourcing scenario of India is as given in table.
Both the demand and supply for LNG have grown at a healthy rate over the past decade. The recent development of shale gas reserves in North America has increased the supply of LNG to the global market but LNG demand is expected to grow substantially over the next decade driven in particular by India, China and other emerging markets (Argentina, Brazil, Bangladesh etc.). Demand for natural gas in India is expected to grow at a very rapid pace. As per the estimate released by Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas recently for 12th and 13th five year plan, the demand for gas is expected to increase by a CAGR of 14% during 2011-12, to 2016-17, from 194 MMSCMD to 373 MMSCMD. In 2020, this demand could reach to over 500 MMSCMD.
2012
17
As the Indian economy accelerates and moves towards a cleaner energy mix, a number of attractive growth opportunities are emerging in and around the gas value chain. A few opportunities are city gas distribution, construction of new LNG regasification terminals, gas based peaking power generation, completion of national gas grid, development of unconventional gas sources etc. These opportunities are detailed out in the next chapters.
NGG is an ambitious blueprint conceived by GoI, aiming to develop a nationwide network of natural gas to connect the consumers with sources. The government is also planning to boost use of clean fuel by reaching out to unserviced areas through a national gas highway. India currently has around 12,000 km of natural gas pipeline. State-owned gas transportation major GAIL (India) Ltd operates around 8,000 km pipelines and is planning to add another 6,000- 8,000 km in next few years. Most gas pipelines are currently in the northern and western region, and there is need to develop networks in southern, eastern and central regions. when compared with some of the more developed natural gas markets in the world, the network density is still quite low pipeline length to country area ratio of 0.003 km/square km as compared to 0.06 for USA, 1.17 for UK, 1.24 for Germany and 0.02 for Bangladesh. So India has huge opportunities in transmission and developing natural gas grid.
1ST FLOOR, WORLD TRADE CENTRE, BABAR ROAD, NEW DELHI-110001 FAX No: 23709151 Ph. No: 011-23457700, 011-23457744, 011-23457751 www.pngrb.gov.in
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2012
In the last 20 years, growth of the Indian gas market was steady and with improved infrastructure and domestic discoveries, price levels have begun to rise gradually. Currently, India has a substantial demand for gas, estimated to be 350 MMSCMD in 2015 and 480 MMSCMD in 2020. As domestic gas discoveries are expected to be limited, the demandsupply gap is expected to continue due to nonavailability of cheap gas. Although gas price has changed in the last two decades and is slowly moving towards market driven price, Indian gas market is still sensitive to price. Though there are some consumers segments which can afford high priced LNG which include existing fertilizer plants (naphtha and fuel oil-based), refining (naphtha conversion), power (naphtha switching), CGD and industrials (fuel oil-based and captive power), future gas demand is likely to be low as new markets can't be unlocked at current high LNG price. LNG is available both under long term contracts and in spot market. While the price of LNG imported under term contracts is governed by the SPA (Special Purchase Agreement) between the LNG seller and the buyer, the spot cargoes are purchased on mutually agreeable commercial terms. It is important to develop new LNG markets through seeding with low priced LNG/ domestic gas, develop infrastructure, create demand and make them ready for absorbing high priced LNG. Currently, several options are being explored including gas price pooling and gas allocation policy for power sector which is the biggest consumer of natural gas. The objective of all these initiatives is to promote the use of LNG in India and make LNG more affordable for new sets of consumers. Gas price pooling can bring down the effective cost of using LNG for new customers and will help to expand the natural gas market through bringing new opportunities and new set of players in downstream market. As per the new allocation guidelines, no power plant will be assured gas for its entire capacity. Domestic linkage will be provided for 60% of the power plant capacity and there will be no distinction between private and public companies. It was also decided that initial allocation would be done on an in-principle basis, though the actual drawl of gas would happen only after the developer ties up at least 85% of the capacity, corresponding to 60% of domestic gas allocated. CEA has been asked to prepare a list of power plants expected to come during 2012-17 period for the same. So the power plants which are allocated domestic gas in 2012-17 will have to source 40% of its total requirement in form of LNG. It may reform the LNG market in India if the reform in power tariff happens. As power sector is the largest consumer of gas, there will be opportunities to participate in value chain and supply LNG to the power plants.
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India is pushing hard to increase its domestic gas production to cater its enormous demand. Since the creation of NELP, eight rounds of bidding have taken place and more than 200 E&P blocks are offered. NELP - IX bidding is currently in progress. There is consensus that a large portion of the possible onshore sedimentary basin has been explored. Currently, there is prevailing uncertainty over potential from the new NELP and CBM blocks. In addition, the government is expected to bring out the New Open Acreage Licensing policy towards the end of 2011 which could prove to be a discontinuity against the earlier regime. As the demand is far exceeding supply in India and there are very few new domestic sources available, in future, additional demand will be catered through LNG (unless any large domestic discovery will be made) or through transnational pipelines if and when they get constructed. China and India are likely to account for 74% of LNG import requirement in the non-OECD Asia. As on date, LNG re-gasification capacity in the country is 12.5 mtpa (10 mtpa at PLL's terminal at Dahej and 2.5 mtpa at Shell's terminal at Hazira). Capacity of Dahej is expected to reach 13.6 mtpa by 201314 after expansion. The capacity of HLPL Hazira is also likely to be expanded to 5 mtpa in next 3-4 years. While current capacity at the Dahej terminal is deployed for importing LNG from Qatar and short term supplies from other sources, the Hazira terminal sources spot cargoes. Beyond this, PLL is adding another 5 mtpa terminal at Kochi and RGPPL adding a 5 mtpa terminal at Dabhol. The initial capacity of Dhabol terminal will be 1.2 mtpa after commissioning without breakwater facilities. After completion of breakwater facilities by 2013-14, the terminal will be in a position to handle 5 mtpa. Kochi terminal is expected to be in place by 2012 with an initial capacity of 2.5 mtpa which will subsequently increase to 5 mtpa. In view of huge demand supply of natural gas, there is a substantial potential to import LNG into the country. For handling LNG volumes, there is an attractive opportunity to set up LNG reagasification terminals. GSPC-Adani plans to add a 5 mtpa terminal at Mundra, and IOCL plans to add a 5 mtpa terminal at Ennore in next 4-5 years. PLL is planning to set up another terminal on east coast while as GAIL is exploring the potential to set up an onshore terminal or FSRU on East Coast.
2012
We can expect that, if all terminals are commissioned on time, LNG regasification capacity will reach around 40 45 mtpa (around 145 160 MMSCMD) by 2016-17. Beyond 2017, terminals are being planned at port locations like Dighi Port, Mumbai, Paradeep, Vizag, Mangalore, Cuddalore Port etc. If at least 50% (3 out of 6) of these terminals materialize, the total regasification capacity will reach 60-65 mtpa by 2021-22.
City Gas Distribution has not properly evolved in India, barring a few cities like Delhi and Mumbai. Most of the current demand is driven by mandated segments and discretionary demand has been low But CGD is slowly evolving and rapid growth is expected in coming years with more than 250 cities likely to be targeted. Demand of city gas can be further categorized into the following four segments. Vehicular segment: For the vehicular segment, the alternate fuel is diesel and this segment can afford up to USD 17/ mmbtu of natural gas based on price of diesel, mileage of car and cost of CNG conversion kit. At CNG cost of INR 35/kg or USD 13.5/mmbtu, this results in savings of around 20 per cent over the diesel price. This segment is expected to be 2025 per cent of total CGD volumes.
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Commercial: The alternate cost of fuel f o r commercial segment is very high owing to the removal of subsidy. The alternate fuel is LPG and this segment can afford up to USD 18/mmbtu. At CNG cost of INR 35/kg or USD 13.5/mmbtu, this results in savings of around 4050 per cent over the LNG prices. This segment is expected to be 1520 per cent of total CGD volumes. Industrial sector is the most attractive consumer segment to tap into given the large anchor load comprising of 50 per cent of demand. It can afford up to USD 16/mmbtu of natural gas. The domestic consumer segment can only afford up to USD 12/mmbtu of delivered gas price, and will have limited potential other than high-density urban consumers, given government subsidies on LPG, high servicing costs and the corresponding low volume off take.
2012
INDIA ENERGY BOOK
22
Demand for CGD is expected to reach around 45-46 MMSCMD by 2016-17 due to addition of new cities, price advantage of CNG and increased use of PNG in domestic, industrial and commercial th sectors. As per the estimates released by Planning Commission for 12 five year plan, the growth in gas demand in the City Gas Distribution (CGD) sector between 2012 and 2017 is projected to be the highest among all sectors, at a CAGR of 28.8%, from 13 MMSCMD to 46 MMSCMD. Hence, there are multiple opportunities for the companies to bid and construct CGD networks across India. Though CGD is capital intensive and needs a longer gestation period, it is lucrative for many gas utility companies due to high affordability of consumers. As per an independent study done by McKinsey in
2010, CGD in India has capacity to absorb gas prices ranging from USD 12 to USD 16/mmbtu at crude prices of USD 90/bbl considering soaring alternative liquid fuel prices. Supply of natural gas makes economic sense vis--vis competing fuels for most of the segments, viz. domestic, industrials, commercial and vehicular. Industrial and commercial segments are the most attractive consumer segments given large anchor load and high affordability and comprising 60-70 percent of total CGD volumes. Vehicular segment is expected to consume 2025 per cent of total CGD volumes while as domestic consumer segment will have limited potential other than high-density urban consumers, given government subsidies on LPG, high servicing costs and the corresponding low volume off take. There are three key challenges faced by the CGD sector in India - inadequate network infrastructure available to facilitate proliferation of CGD, inadequate availability of gas for CGD particularly for nonmandated segments and regulatory uncertainty. But this is changing rapidly with new planned pipelines coming up to connect new geographical areas, new sources of gas including CBM getting available and changes in regulations to lay out a growth roadmap for CGD segment. With these developments, the CGD segment is expected to grow rapidly over the next few years with entry of new players and expansion of CGD network to new geographical territories. Power sector is the largest consumer of natural gas in India and has huge potential due to significant deficit. But gas based power generation is constrained by the ability to pay for a higher fuel expense. India has the fourth largest coal reserves in the world and has significant hydro potential. Cost of power generated using coal as fuel is significantly lower compared to other thermal power generation means. For example, a base-load open cycle gas turbine (OCGT) can compete with coal only if it can get gas at $5- $6 per mmbtu whereas combine cycle gas turbine (CCGT) can compete at a gas price of $8$10 per mmbtu. Peaking power plants can afford higher price of gas on account of higher power tariff. Similarly, combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP) plants can also afford a slightly higher price for gas due to increased efficiency. So opportunity lies primarily in decentralized gas based power generation & peaking power. Currently India's power demand is around 150 GW. India's peaking power shortfalls are set to intensify over the next 10 years and are expected to reach more than 70 GW by 2020 from the current peaking deficit of around 30 GW. A bulk of the peak power deficit can be attributed to five key power deficit states Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana. Seasonal peaking deficits will exist in northern states, whereas demand for daily peaking power would continue to increase especially in the southern states and major urban centers. Base load power demand will primarily be met through the thermal coal-based plants, whereas gas and hydro plants are best placed to meet the peaking power demand. Gas is the energy source to bridge the peaking power gap other than solar and hydro power given scalability, availability and time to construct. So far, gas-based peaking power capacity addition has been constrained by domestic gas shortage and absence of peaking power tariff regulations.
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Significant market failures at the state distribution company level have prevented significant peaking capacity from coming up so far. The present tariff structure does not fully address the critical dimensions like (a) differentiation of tariff based on 'value' of the electricity during a particular time of day, that is, peak and off-peak periods (b) separate tariff structure for peaking plants, that is, separate tariffs for the plants that need to operate only during peak periods to meet the peak demand. However, key foundational regulations have started coming in place. The Rakesh Nath committee report lays the framework for peaking PPAs to be contracted with the SEBs. The report emphasizes the need for a differential power tariff based on the availability of plant and value of power during peak period. The report also advocates tying in time of day tariff at the distribution end with corresponding differentiation of supply side tariff. In addition to the recommendations by the Rakesh Nath committee, certain basic frameworks are being set in place Multi Year Time of Day tariffs (MYToD), Time of Day (TOD) metering; 23 states have announced MYToD tariffs (15 have notified and 9 have issued orders).
Increasing demand and lagging supply leads to high prices for both oil and gas, making exploitation of unconventional gas far more lucrative for producers. Globally, unconventional gas reservoirs are present in significant number of geological basins. Typical unconventional gas resources are Shale Gas, Tight Gas, Coal Bed Methane and Gas Hydrates. It is estimated that globally 16,000 trillion cubic feet of gas is present in shales.
2012
Among various unconventional gas resources; the CBM, tight gas and shale gas are being commercially exploited in US and Canada, Australia, China etc. in different proportions. India too is making efforts to keep pace with the CBM industry but the tight gas and shale gas are yet to find a place in the country's energy basket. Coal Bed Methane (CBM) offers tremendous potential due to high coal reserves. However, CBM production has been slow to pick up globally with current production of about 15 MMSCMD coming primarily from the US. Global production is expected to grow to around 65 MMSCMD by 2015 with technical challenges being gradually resolved. India has the sixth largest coal reserves in the world
with projected CBM reserves of about 92 TCF. The government has developed a policy to encourage CBM production and 33 blocks have already been offered in four bidding rounds. Five of these have established reserves of about 8.9 TCF. However, after several years of existence and big promise, CBM production in India is still 0.1 MMSCMD from 1 block. DGH expects production to grow up to 7.4 MMSCMD by 2015 (RIL: 5.0 MMSCMD, GEECL: 1.5 MMSCMD, ONGC/ Essar: 0.9 MMSCMD). Several challenges still exist in meeting CBM production targets and increasing production beyond 2015 which includes technical challenges related to assessment of potential, utilization of produced methane, inferior grade of coal in India and low production from wells on account of low porosity and permeability, regulatory challenges related to use delineation of blocks for mining and CBM exploitation, environmental challenges on account of higher requirement of land and disposal of water, logistical challenges on account of requirement to drill large number of wells at low cost, big requirement of fracking and especially off take of gas and political challenges as most prospective coal mines lie in insurgency affected areas and pose a threat to safe operations. It has been estimated that India possesses shale deposits across the Gangetic plain, Assam, Gujarat, Rajasthan, and a few other areas. The shales in Gondwana & Cambay basin have been field experimented for evaluating the shale gas potential. Initial results are found encouraging and at par with US producing shales. Hence it has opened vast geographical and stratigraphic frontiers for shale gas exploration. In India, although the potential of shale oil and gas has been recognized to some extent, not much has been done. No credible estimates of the actual reserves are available. In this context, Government is planning to come up with a policy dealing with the exploration and development of shale gas and oil. On the lines of NELP, interested operators could bid for acreages, promising a work program that covers both seismic surveys to understand the potential and actual drilling.
Shale Gas
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25
With the growing demand for natural gas in India and the fact that existing gas fields are in decline, shale gas could fill the gap between demand and supply. The recent Reliance-BP deal shows how Indian firms can partner with global majors and benefit the Indian energy market. While the deal was in the exploration and production area at the outset, BP stated that Indian market has huge potential and they will look forward to extend their partnership to gas transmission and marketing as well in future.
Regulatory Dimensions
Open acreage licensing policy (OALP) After NELP IX, there are wide speculations that the government may stop inviting bids for rights to explore oil and gas under New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) terms and replace it with a new exploration policy model called open acreage licensing policy (OALP). The open acreage model allows domestic and global oil majors to bid for exploration rights through the year unlike NELP which is an annual event. Also, companies can identify and bid any offshore or onshore block in the country.
Though OALP is being considered as next stage in India's exploration scenario, there are a few roadblocks ahead. From past successful OALP examples, it is observed that for being successful, OALP requires availability of large number of blocks for exploration and production, besides a stable fiscal regime and, above all, availability of geological data in public domain and prospective details of the area if not individual blocks. In India, not much data is available for its sedimentary basins. As for geological data availability, nearly 50% of the total area is poorly explored and India has very little data of value. India's upstream regulator Directorate General of Hydrocarbon is in the process of setting up an NDR to collect and preserve valuable data related to the Indian sedimentary basins which will be used by energy exploration firms in discovering hydrocarbon assets. But these efforts will take substantial time to materialize. In recent NELP-IX round, a total of 74 bids were received for 33 blocks out of the 34 blocks on offer. Of the 15 offshore blocks and 19 onshore blocks, single bids were placed for 10 offshore and 4 onshore blocks respectively. Despite serious efforts, there are tepid responses from most of the global oil and gas majors and ONGC emerged as the highest winner winning 10 of these 33 blocks. Even in past NELP VIII, most global energy majors stayed away from the bidding process and none of the top five global majors, namely Exxon, Shell, Chevron, Statoil and Conoco Philips, participated with bids. Many experts believe that in this stage implementing OALP may unduly help the entrenched PSUs or promote crony capitalism. So it is likely that the NELP & OALP may co-exist for some time before OALP is implemented finally.
2012
Historically, gas transportation sector was dominated by single PSU with transportation tariff determined by the central government. From 1987 to 2005, transportation tariff was fixed by the Empowered Group of Ministers (EoGM). Govt. of India decided to develop a policy concerning the approval of pipeline construction that would be consistent, marketfriendly, and would help avoid duplication of gas transport routes. To address all the above issues, a board called The Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) was formed under Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board Act 2006. The board also has to ensure adequate and secure supply of the petroleum products throughout the country at the competitive and regulated prices and act as an PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS enabler in developing gas infrastructure by providing regulatory REGULATORY BOARD LIMITED support for the development of the pipeline network. The board formally came into existence on June 25, 2007 with the objective to regulate the refining, processing, storage, transportation, distribution, marketing and sale of petroleum, petroleum products and natural gas excluding production of crude oil and natural gas so as to protect the interest of consumers and entities engaged in specified activities and to ensure uninterrupted & adequate supply and to promote competitive markets. Currently all the entities have to take prior authorization to lay, build, operate or expand any pipeline as a common carrier or contract carrier by the board. The regulator PNGRB also set up the Access Code requiring third-party access for one third of the capacity and setting the tariffs of transportation for third parties. PNGRB has therefore to determine tariffs for existing pipelines as well as for pipelines authorized by the government (before PNGRB was created). PNGRB has proposed amendments to the (Determination of Natural Gas Pipeline Tariff) Regulations, 2008, and has invited comments from stakeholders and experts. These will allow gas transporters like GAIL and Reliance Gas Transportation Infrastructure to charge a lower rate than that determined by PNGRB or those approved earlier on a cost-plus basis. The Petroleum & Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) also issues regulations for authorizing entities for developing City or Local Natural Gas Distribution (CGD) Networks; exclusively for CGD Networks and determination of network tariff of such networks. Emerging of PNGRB brought reforms and transparency to the natural gas sector. PNGRB always encourages competition and wants to increase the number of players which is an encouraging trend for players who want to invest in India.
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Demand for gas in India is higher than the supply. In 2008, GoI came up with a gas allocation policy to prioritize gas supply to various industries. These guidelines are applicable for five years and shall be reviewed afterwards. India primarily utilizes natural gas in power generation, fertilizer, city gas, petrochemicals/ refineries & steel/sponge iron industries. Presently, the allocation of domestic gas is based on sectoral priorities, gas availability and potential gas markets in particular regions and done by EGoM. Existing users have priority over Greenfield users. Fertilizer sector has been given highest priority of gas allocation in India followed by LPG and Petrochemical plants and power. CGD and refineries are given least priority due to their high price affordability. Priority to power generators and fertilizer producers make them the major customers of natural gas supplied at the lowest rate (Administered Pricing Mechanism prices decided by the government) by the state-owned oil and gas companies. There are a few drawbacks in allocation policy. Power and fertilizer sector are put on the priority list whereas other sectors are considered less important by the authorities. But these sectors are often willing to pay a higher price of domestic gas than power and fertilizer companies, but they are unable to buy gas because demand exceeds supply. In such scenario, domestically produced gas will not be able to discover its true market price and also reduce competition. The NELP producers have liberty to market their own gas but they have to abide by gas allocation policy which reduces their choice of marketing their gas. In simple words, gas allocation policy effectively took away gas producers' rights to sell the gas they discovered in the open market. The recent ruling of the Supreme Court in May 2010 regarding the dispute between RIL (Reliance Industries Ltd.) and RNRL (Reliance Natural Resources Ltd.), reaffirms the role of the government in the allocation and pricing of gas. India is currently facing huge power deficit in peak hours. India's peaking power shortage is estimated at 18,000 -20,000 MW, or 10-12% of the total installed capacity. As per an independent analysis done by consultancy firm McKinsey, this gap could widen to 25% by 2017. A one member taskforce was formed by Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) in 2009 under Shri Rakesh Nath, former Chairperson, Central Electricity Authority (CEA) and ex-officio Member, CERC for examining the issues related to tariff structure for generating stations set up for meeting the peak demand and to suggest measures that could suitably incentivize as also mitigate the risks to the investors who want to set up power stations for meeting peaking power requirements. Task Force was also to examine the desirability of permitting differential peak and off-peak tariffs even for base load power plants to make the sale of costlier peaking power from peaking stations easier.
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Committee made certain recommendation to reduce the peak hour deficit. As per the task force recommendation, differential tariff for peak hours (6 hours 2 hours in the morning and 4 hours in the evening) and off-peak hours for the generating station can be introduced for incentivizing the peaking power generation. As per the task force, differential tariff may be worked out in such a way that the value of power generated during peak hours becomes 25% more than the value of power generated during off-peak hours. The task force strongly supported gas based power plants for peaking power generation and suggested that for a gas based (existing and new combined cycle) generating station, recovery of the fixed cost should be linked to achievement of Normative Plant Availability Factor (NPAF) 90% for peak hours and 63% for off-peak hours respectively and incentive may be linked to achievement of NPAF beyond 85%. For open cycle GTs/gas reciprocating engines, task force suggested that they should meet the peaking demand to be located near the metro cities in the vicinity of the existing or proposed national gas grid. For new open cycle gas based peaking generating station, the incentive/disincentive for over-achievement/under-achievement by each percentage vis-a-vis NPAF during peak hours has been suggested as 10% of the peak capacity charge rate. Task force also suggested higher O&M margins for cyclic power generating stations catering peaking power demand by provide them additional margin in heat rate norms as well as additional O&M charges to allow for additional starts and stops. If these recommendations come into effect, differential tariff for peak and off-peak period will encourage the State Commissions to go for time of day tariff for end consumers. Time of day tariff at the distribution end does not make complete sense without the corresponding differentiation of supply side tariff. All this will also induce demand side management at the consumer end and help the distribution companies to manage their load better. In future, BAT (Basic Availability Tariff) and BIC (Basic Incentive Credit) can be modified on a seasonal, time-of-day, or week-end/weekday basis. This will provide a means to send accurate signals to the generators that reflect the differing needs of the system. Tariff could also be linked to achievement of Normative Plant Availability Factor (NPAF) for peak and off-peak periods respectively
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Indian natural gas sector offers a range of opportunities for both domestic and global players. But India needs a clear policy and regulatory framework in order to attract investments required in energy sector, not only to sustain a high economic growth, but also to deal with poverty which leaves millions of people without access to energy. The role and powers of the regulators have to be clearly defined. India has opened up to private and foreign companies and these need regulatory stability with minimum intervention from the state. There have been some positive developments in the upstream sector resulting in participation of JV and private companies and leading to some attractive discoveries including that in KG Basin but there are still some policy and pricing issues in NELP which is discouraging wide participation and investment by private companies. Pricing will determine the balancing point between supply and demand. India remains largely underexplored and major efforts have to be made in this respect to develop additional domestic supplies. Although India is geographically located close to gas rich countries like Iran, Turkmenistan, etc., import of gas from these countries to India through pipelines is yet to become a reality. India has been increasingly importing LNG and is building new regasification terminals to handle additional imports in future. It is expected that the future gas supplies in the coming five years will be based on two sources: domestic production and LNG supplies.
Conclusion
2012
INDIAN
OIL SECTOR
DR. D.M. KALE Director General ONGC Energy Centre Dr. D.M.Kale, Director General ONGC Energy Centre, holds a Doctorate Degree in Astrophysics from prestigious Tata Institute of Fundamental Research. He has more than 30 years of experience in Reservoir Management of Oil & Gas fields. He began his career in ONGC in developing Numerical Reservoir Simulators. As a talented Scientist he has conceptualized several schemes for enhanced oil recovery besides carrying out responsibilities such as heading Exploration Business Group of Eastern Region and Mumbai Region of ONGC. As Head of COIN, Dr. Kale coordinated all the R&D works in Institutes of ONGC.He has taken initiative in setting up ONGC Energy Centre for Research, Development & Demonstration of all Alternate forms of energy. He is recipient of the medal of Peter the Great by Russian Academy of Natural Sciences.
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The Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas is the nodal ministry responsible for activities relating to exploration and production of oil and natural gas (including import of Liquefied Natural Gas), refining, distribution & marketing, import, export and conservation of petroleum products. Following Public Sector Undertakings and other organizations are under the administrative control of the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas : Public Sector organisations Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited Indian Oil Corporation Limited Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited Engineer India Limited Biecco Lawrie & Co. limited Other Organisations Oil Industry Development Board Petroleum Safety Directorate Oil Industry Safety Directorate Centre for High Technology Directorate General of Hydrocarbons Balmer Lawrie Investments Limited
Introduction
Crude Oil production has been at the level of 33 Million Metric Tonnes (MMT) for some years now. During the year 2010-11 production of petroleum products from crude oil is 196 MMT. This is an increase of 5.3% compared to the year 2009-10. During the year 2010-11 consumption of petroleum products (in terms of domestic sale) was 142 MMT. This shows increase of 2.9% compared to last year.
Petroleum Products
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250 200 150 100 50 0 200102 200203 200304 200405 200506 200607 200708 2008- 200909 10 201011
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During the year 2010-11, domestic refinery production was 196 MMT. Availability of petroleum products during 2010-11 from domestic refineries and non-refineries was more than the domestic demand on overall basis demand except for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). In fact, the country is net exporter of petroleum products (42 Million Tonnes) and products like Naphtha, Petrol, Diesel and Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) etc.
Refining Capacity
During the financial year 2010-11, import of crude oil has been 163 MMT valued at Rs. 4559 billion, against that during 2009-10 at 159 MMT valued at Rs. 3754 billion. This marked an increase of 2.8% during 2010-11 in quantity terms but increased by 21.45% in value terms. In US$ terms imports have increased from US$ 79.5 billion to US$ 100 billion from 2009-10 to 2010-11, marking an increase of 25.7%.
New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) provides an international class fiscal and contract framework for Exploration and Production of Hydrocarbons. In the first eight rounds of NELP spanning 20002010, Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) for 235 exploration blocks have been signed. Under NELP, 90 oil and gas discoveries have been made by private/joint venture (JV) companies in 26 blocks. As exploration activities are progressing, new oil and gas discoveries are likely to come in future.
The largest natural gas discovery in the country has been made in KG deepwater, from where production has commenced in April, 2009 with initial production of 5 million metric standard cubic meter per day (MMSCMD). The current natural gas production is in the range of 52-55 MMSCMD. Investment commitment under NELP is about US$ 11 billion on exploration, against which actual expenditure so far under NELP is about US$ 8.27 billion. In addition, US$ 7.37 billion investment has been made on development of discoveries. Thus actual investment made by E&P companies under NELP is of the order of US$ 15.64 billion. With a view to accelerate further the pace of exploration, in the Ninth round of NELP (NELP-IX), 34 exploration blocks are on offer. In order to enhance hydrocarbon securities for the country, the Government has been encouraging National Oil Companies (NOCs) to aggressively pursue equity oil and gas opportunities overseas. ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL) is expected to have produced about 8.7 Million Metric Tonnes(MMT) of oil and equivalent gas during the year 2010-11 from its assets abroad in Sudan, Vietnam, Russia, Syria, Colombia and Venezuela.
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In association with major national industrial associations, Petroleum Conservation Research Association (PCRA) has initiated steps to approach the Small and Medium Industrial clusters where energy consumption is substantial and a large scope for its optimization exists. Through interaction, the areas where Research & Development interventions are sought by the Industrial clusters are finalized and then necessary action initiated for required R &D and its implementation. Petroleum Conservation Research Association (PCRA) has been active in undertaking energy conservation awareness campaigns through the Print, Electronic and Outdoor Media. These awareness campaigns are coupled with the direct services leading to improvement in efficient energy utilization across all major sectors of the economy viz. transport, industry, agriculture, domestic and commercial. For enhancing the effectiveness and reach of PCRA's efforts, linkages have been developed with the Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) and Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) where several joint programmes are planned and implementation. Hydrogen as Auto Fuel The Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas has set up a Hydrogen Corpus Fund with a corpus of Rs.1 billion with contribution from five major oil companies and Oil Industry Development Board (OIDB) for supporting Research and Development in various aspects of hydrogen, which could substitute part of natural gas as transport fuel in future. IOC (R&D) has set up a Hydrogen-CNG mixture dispensing station at IOC's Company Owned and Company Operated (COCO) retail outlet at Dwarka, New Delhi in collaboration with MNRE (Ministry of New & Renewable Energy). A fleet of 3 wheelers operating on 18% HCNG are being fueled from this station and have completed more than 18,000 Km mileage. The implementation of H2 blended CNG fuel will depend on the success of demonstration projects which are likely to be completed in next 2-3 years. The cost of Hydrogen CNG would depend upon the cost of hydrogen production, cost of CNG and the ratio in which they are blended. Bio-diesel Purchase Policy To encourage production of bio-diesel in the country, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas has announced a Bio-diesel Purchase Policy, in October, 2005, which became effective from 1.1.2006. Under this scheme Oil Marketing Companies will purchase bio-diesel for blending with High Speed Diesel (HSD) to the extent of 5% at identified purchase centres across the country. The bio-diesel industry is still at nascent stage of growth and blending has not been set in motion so far. IOC and its JV companies have taken up Jatropha plantation in MP and Chhattisgarh. Another Limited Liability Partnership (LLP) Agreement has been signed with a company for Jatropha plantation in UP.
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Ethanol-Blended Petrol (EBP) Programme The Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) have been mandated to sell 5% Ethanol Blended Petrol (EBP). Low availability of Ethanol has made the progress difficult.
Strategic Storage
In order to ensure the energy security of the country, Government has given in-principle approval for constructing a Strategic Storage of crude oil of 15 MMT capacity, of which the first phase of 5 Million Metric Tonne (MMT) has been taken up at three locations, viz. Visakhapatnam (Vizag) (1.33 MMT), Mangalore(1.5 MMT) and Padur (2.5MMT).
This strategic storage would, in addition to the existing storages of crude oil and petroleum products with the oil companies, provide an emergency response mechanism in case of short term supply disruptions. The construction of the proposed strategic facilities is being managed by Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Limited (ISPRL), a special purpose vehicle of the Oil Industry Development Board (OIDB). The proposed Strategic Crude Oil Storage would be in the underground rock caverns/concrete structure. As the crude oil requirement is increasing, a pre-feasibility study of certain locations having potential of setting up of crude storage has been taken up. For the current stage of development, the unhindered, affordable supply of oil and gas is a necessary condition for the economic growth in India. Western European countries and Japan immediately after Second INDIA Sensitivity : Change in Oil Consumption & GDP (YOY) World War had cheap oil available in plenty for the development and industrialization. The world was ignorant about the GHG emissions and sustainability issues. The broad contours of finite Earth and therefore finite fossil fuel resources were unheard of. Same was the case with South Korea and Asian tigers subsequently. The oil consumption of China also has doubled to 9 million BOPD in the last decade. The recent incremental GDP growth rate is highly sensitive to oil consumption as depicted in the figure 1.
12 10 8 6 4 2 0
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% change India oil consump. % GDP - real growth rate
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-2
Figure 1
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India has to heavily depend on the import of oil and also LNG. Therefore, this sector is affected by the global development in the industry. The oil supply, which has been historically growing with about 3%, has stagnated since 2005. The oil price shock of $147 per barrel and the economic down turn are consequence of the immediate limiting oil supply. The oil under ground is far from over. The recent resource to reserves document of IEA talks about 9 trillion barrels of resources known yet to be exploited in comparison with just little more than 1 trillion barrels cumulatively produced so far globally. At the same time the fact remains that the easy to produce and refine cheap oil is over. The world will have to pay high price for the oil. The more difficult oil will be expensive in terms of required energy inputs as well. For example at the beginning of the last century, for every barrel invested in oil exploration and production resulted in hundred barrels. In the MENA region even today the ratio is very high. But globally, for the additional barrel from deep water or heavy oil or oil from oil sand it is anywhere from 20 to 4. It is very doubtful whether the world oil production will increase beyond current level. The production decline rates from the giant, old fields on average are 5% or more. It is the giant fields which contribute substantial oil production. There are not many giants discovered, not many virgin fields waiting to be developed are connected. From 1982 in every year, the oil produced has exceeded oil discovered and lately with huge margin. It is the reduction in the oil consumption of OECD countries that has enabled growth in consumption in China, India and Middle East as brought out in figure 2.
2012
OECD Rest of the World 2008 2009 Middle East India China
Figure 2
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The recent global events point in the same direction. The major three global events since last April have sharply brought into focus the limits of oil supply in the years ahead. The deep water blowout at Macando, in the Gulf of Mexico has demonstrated the risks in the deep water exploration and the heavy collateral damage to the environment. The Herculean control operation spanning several months and area of hundreds of square kilometers required huge energy inputs for planes, helicopters, vessels, boats, oil based chemicals and so on. The additional safety requirements are definitely going to add the energy cost of the deep water oil in the future. The second event was political turmoil in the MENA Countries. The event has wiped out 1.5 million BOPD from the Libya. The revolution in Egypt was consequence of falling oil production in Egypt after peaking in 1996 and increasing local consumption. The exportable surplus vanished in 2010. The government had no source to give subsidy on fuel and food. The result was social unrest and revolution. Depletion of existing fields and increasing oil consumption is happening in all OPEC countries. The other countries are also susceptible to similar turmoil. As per one projection oil consumption in Saudi Arabia will increase to 5.5 million BOPD in 2030. Currently it is growing at 5.9%. The exports have already dipped to 7.5 million BOPD and are expected to plunge to 6.3 million BOPD by 2015. If the income from exports is to remain same, the oil price demanded by the kingdom in 2030 will be $320 per barrel. To keep the restless populace quite, the only way is subsidies with additional income from oil. Irrespective of lifting cost the oil prices will continue to rise while exportable surplus shrinks.
Egypt : Population
21% growth since 2000
78.9 million
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2009 exports decreased by 26% Consumption Production 1.0
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YoY Change +6% +2% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 -2% 2010
Year 1950
Year 1960
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Data : BP statistical Review 2010 Graphic : mazamasclence.com
-1.0
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Figure 3
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The third event was the major earthquake accompanied by unprecedented Tsunami in Japan. This led to huge loss of property and life. Recovery operations will require huge energy. Further, there was the biggest nuclear accident at Fukushima where a cluster six nuclear reactors produced 4.7 Giga watts of electricity. Prime Minister of Japan wants to shut all the 54 plants by next April. If that happens there is permanent hole of about 50 Giga watts power generation same as to be immediately made up mainly 3 by oil and gas. This will require 1 million BOPD or 300 million M /day of gas. The additional imports of LNG by Japan have already kicked up the LNG prices by 30% to $15 per MBTU. In the days when cheap oil was available, similar events namely Valdez oil spill, several regime changes in the Middle East, and earthquake of Kobe and subsequent reconstruction did not leave any mark on the energy markets. The quick development of indigenous resources for India becomes all the more important in the light of peak oil and the expected decline in the availability of oil in the market even at high costs. However, more important question is the demand side management. Should Indian economy develop crippling dependence on the imported commodity like oil whose supply is going to dry up in coming decades? The events in the new millennium on various fronts are taking place at such rapidity, that the previous forecasts and plans soon become obsolete and unrealistic. It was envisaged that by 2030 India will consume around 10MBOPD and close to 95% of it will be imported. There is no chance that such profuse quantities of oil will be available for importing then. Year after year the forecast of oil production by IEA is moving southwards. In the latest forecast the oil production in 2030 will not exceed 96 million BOPD and of that substantial production is from fields yet to be developed, which is a way of saying there will be shortfall. Further, most of this oil production will be energy-wise expensive. Therefore, may be 5 to 10 % of it will be required as an input to produce the oil and really not available on the market.
World oil production by type in the New Policies Scenario
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Figure 4
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More stress is required on the unconventional oil and gas development. This will help in continuing to exploit the huge infrastructure available for the conventional oil and gas. In the foreseeable future hydrocarbon will continue to play a crucial role. Even to maintain oil and gas supply at current level more and more difficult and unconventional oil from the resources of 9 trillion barrels that IEA lists, will have to be brought on stream. This additional oil and will generate GHG in their production process, in addition to GHG contributed by the oil and gas when used. Any carbon sequestration or other mitigation method will make oil expensive in money and energy terms. That is another substantial portion of the energy generated will be expended for carbon management. This will further reduce the energy available for markets.
Production cost curve (not including carbon pricing)
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9000
Figure 5
Every source beyond 3 trillion barrels is very geographically and geologically specific. Further it demands specific research and development. CO2 flooding and other EOR techniques are highly field specific. These require sustained efforts for a long time. There is substantial scope of enhancing production and mitigating decline from the producing fields by these efforts. Already such efforts are contributing. Hydro-fracturing and horizontal drilling are two technologies which are responsible for bringing on stream CBM, shale oil and gas from tight gas reservoirs. There are known heavy oil pools in western part which are not contributing today. Very careful and detailed geo scientific data collection and analysis will reduce the risk of shale oil and gas exploration and exploitation. Focus away from the philosophy of concentrated efforts in expensive deep water exploration as the single pursuit for more oil and gas, is required. Currently available technologies for CTL require very large scale projects to be economic. The Bio fuels including ethanol, bio diesel and bio mass gasification are very sensitive issues. The net energy gains in these sources are very marginal. These methods are attractive from the environmental point of view that they may contribute very small quantity of GHG , though they are not carbon neutral.
2012
39 09
In the immediate future, there is a scope and prospects in all these areas. However, in long term there is a need to manage the demand side to cut oil and energy use in general through austerity and be ready to do without hydrocarbons as the sources dry out, prices sky rocket, energy gains vanish and prove environmentally untenable.
2012
INDIAN
Sudhinder Thakur Distinguished Scientist & Fellow Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited Mr. Sudhinder Thakur, former Executive Director, NPCIL, with four decades of experience in nuclear power is Distinguished Scientist & Fellow, NPCIL. He has served as Consular Science with Embassy of India, France and served NPCIL & UCIL Boards. He has been a consistent contributor to IAEA.
2012
41
The Atomic Energy Commission (AEC), reporting directly to the Prime Minister, is the apex body of the Government of India for atomic energy. AEC has executive and financial powers and has powers of the Government of India within the limits of approved budget provision. AEC provides direction on policies related to atomic energy. The members of AEC include, among others, some eminent scientists & technocrats, secretaries of different ministries and seniormost officials from the office of the Prime Minister. Development and implementation of AEC directions in nuclear power, related nuclear fuel cycle activities and research & development activities is carried out by various units of Department of Atomic Energy (DAE). DAE organization is divided into four major sectors, viz. research & development sector, industrial sector, public sector undertakings and services & support sector. The DAE also provides for the interaction needed between the production and R&D units. As integrated group of different units, DAE comprises of five research centres, three industrial organizations, five public sector undertakings and three service organizations. It has under its aegis two boards for promoting and funding extra-mural research in nuclear and allied fields, mathematics, and a national institute (deemed university). It also supports seven institutes engaged in research in basic sciences, astronomy, astrophysics, cancer research and education. Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd (NPCIL), is a 100% Government of India owned, public sector undertaking of the DAE and is responsible for design, construction, commissioning and operation of thermal nuclear power plants. The responsibility of fast nuclear power reactors rests with BHAVINI, another public sector undertaking of the DAE. Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB) is the national regulatory body having powers to frame safety policies, lay down safety standards & requirements and powers to monitor & enforce safety provisions in nuclear and radiation installations and practices. AERB reports to the Atomic Energy Commission. A bill on constitution of an independent National Regulatory Authority is currently under consideration of the Government of India. India has only moderate reserves of Uranium but it is endowed with large reserves of Thorium; in fact about 1/3rd of the total global reserves are in India. India's indigenous nuclear programme is, therefore, focused on using the large resource base of Thorium through three-stage nuclear power programme. The known uranium reserves (Though current exploration shows much higher resource at Thumalapalli mine in AP) can support a first-stage programme of about 10,000 MW based on Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs) using natural uranium as fuel and heavy water as moderator and coolant. The energy potential of natural uranium can be increased to about 300,000 MW in the second stage through Fast Breeder Reactors (FBRs) which utilize plutonium obtained from the reprocessed spent fuel of the first stage. Thorium is a fertile element, and needs to be first converted to a fissile material, Uranium-233, in a reactor. Once a large FBR capacity is in operation thorium can be introduced as blanket, to produce U-233.
2012
With the deployment of thorium at third stage reactors using U-233 as fuel, the energy potential for electricity generation is very large. A Three-Stage nuclear power programme has been envisaged from the very beginning of nuclear power programme in India to ultimately use Thorium reserves. The three stages of India's Nuclear Programme are: 1. Natural uranium fuelled Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors. 2. Fast Breeder Reactors (FBR) utilizing plutonium based fuel. 3. Breeder Reactors for utilization of thorium. The three stages of the programme have important fuel cycle linkages and have to be gone through sequentially.
1,027,616 117,308
Three Stage Indian Nuclear Power Programme incorporates closed fuel cycle and thorium utilisation as a main-stay for sustained growth.
PHWR
FBTR
Nat. U
U fueled PHWRs
300 GWe-Year
Electricity
Th
About 40000 GWeYear Power potential~ 530 GWe with 300 GWe using thorium
AHWR
Dep. U Pu Pu
Electricity
2012
U233
U233 Fueled
Reactors
U233
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
43
India is not an energy resource rich country. More than 80% of our hydrocarbons needs are imported and cover essentially the transportation needs. With about 190,000 MW installed power capacity including captive capacity, India is fifth largest electricity producer. The generation, other than captive, during the year 2010-11, has been:
Source Coal Lignite Gas Multi fuel Diesel Hydro Nuclear Imports Total
Generation BUs 535.3 26.4 97.8 2.5 3.0 114.3 26.3 6.5 811.1
Share 66.0 3.3 12.1 0.3 0.4 14.0 3.3 0.7 100
Y-o-Y Growth% 4.0 6.6 10.4 70.2 25.7 10.0 41.0 4.7 5.6
In addition, we have 14550 MW Wind power, 3100 MW small hydro (less than 25 MW unit size), 1045 MW Bio mass, and 1742 MW bagasse co generation and 600 MW off grid renewable. The per capita annual consumption of electricity at about 700 units needs to be increased to about 2000 units to provide a reasonable quality of life. India is not energy resource rich nation. The coal, main stay of electricity generation, availability is also restricted with current production of about 400 million tons. The coal imports along with need for development of associated infrastructure are rising. Multiplying the power capacity quickly implies exploitation of all sources including hydro, wind, solar, biomass in addition to coal, gas and nuclear. The Integrated Energy Policy released in September 2006 assessed the energy needs very comprehensively and projected development of all sources. The policy document projects, amongst other sources, a significant increase in nuclear power capacity to about 63,000 MW by the year 2032. Nuclear power has a very important role to play in India's future energy. Nuclear power is economically competitive and therefore can provide large base load generation, while contributing significantly to de carbonization of the power sector, being devoid of greenhouse gas emissions, with life cycle emissions comparable with hydro and wind power.
44
2012
With commencement of operation of Kaiga-4 (220 MW) in January 2011 a capacity of 4780 MW with 20 nuclear reactors is now in operation.The operating nuclear power plants in India are given in Table-2.
Date Of Commercial Operation October 28, 1969 October 28, 1969 August 18, 2006 September 12, 2005 December 16,1973 April 1,1981 June 1, 2000 December 23, 2000 February 4, 2010 March 31, 2010 January 27,1984 March 21,1986 November 16, 2000 March 16, 2000 May 6, 2007 January 20, 2011 January 1,1991 July 1,1992 May 6, 1993 September 1,1995
Rajasthan Atomic Power Station Rajasthan (RAPS) Madras Atomic Power Station Kaiga Generating Station (KGS) Karnataka Narora Atomic Power Station Kakrapar Atomic Power Station
2012
45
NPCIL achieved power generation of 26,473 million units - the highest ever, in the year 2010-11. This was an increase of 41% over the power generation in the previous year. For the current financial year 2011-12, the power generation up to June 30, 2011 has been 7993 million units. NPCIL's operating reactors MAPS-2 and TAPS-2 recorded continuous operation of more than a year without outage. During the year 2010-11, thirteen of the twenty operating units achieved availability factor of more than 85%.The overall availability factor of the full fleet for the year was 89% and capacity factor was 71%. The operating reactors have registered over 340 reactors-years of safe operation so far. Table-3 gives the data for last few years.
2012
2006-07
While the availability factors are high some of the reactors have been operated at reduced power levels consistent with availability of indigenous uranium. The situation has progressively improved, though some shortfall still exists and all but one PHWRs of 220 MW are operated at 70% of their power rating.
In addition to the 20 operating reactors, 7 reactors units with total capacity of 5300 MW are under construction as shown in Table-3.
Project
Kudankulam Ato mic Po wer P roject units 1&2 Fast Breeder Reactor Kakrapar Atomic Power Project units 7&8 Rajasthan Ato mic Po wer Pr oject u nits 7&8
Both the reactors of Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project-1&2 (2x1000 MW), being set up in technical collaboration with Russian Federation, have reached an advanced stage of completion with hot runs of nuclear steam supply system completed in unit 1 August 2011. The second unit is closely following the first reactor. First pour of concrete has been carried out at KAPP-3&4 in November 2010, and at RAPP-7&8 in July 2011. The second stage envisages setting up of Fast Breeder Reactors (FBRs) along with associated reprocessing and fuel fabrication plants. A large power-generating base is also needed to establish use of thorium on a large scale in the third stage of the programme. A 40 MWt Fast Breeder Test Reactor (FBTR) has completed 25 years of operation at Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR), Kalpakkam. The FBTR has been in operation at 18 MWt with turbo-alternator synchronized to the grid. FBTR has provided valuable experience with liquid metal Fast Breeder Reactor Technology and the confidence to embark upon construction of a 500 MW Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR). The Bharatiya Nabhikiya Vidyut Nigam Limited (BHAVINI), a public sector undertaking of the DAE is implementing the India's first prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) project at Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu. PFBR is a pool type reactor using mixed oxide of uranium and plutonium as fuel and liquid sodium as coolant. Two more FBRs are planned at same site. The emphasis for future FBRs is on use of metallic fuels in view of their higher breeding ratio. The strategy for large scale deployment of nuclear energy is focused towards utilisation of thorium. The third stage will be based on the thorium-uranium-233 cycle. Uranium-233 is obtained by irradiation of thorium in PHWRs and FBRs. India already has small-scale experience over the entire thorium fuel cycle. An example is the KAMINI reactor in Indira Gandhi Center for Atomic Research (IGCAR), the only currently operating reactor in the world, which uses U-233 as fuel. This fuel was bred, processed and fabricated indigenously. Efforts are currently on to enlarge that experience to a bigger scale.
2012
47
The recycling and optimal utilization of uranium is essential to meet India's current and future energy security needs. Towards this end, a significant milestone in the country's three-stage nuclear energy programme has been achieved with the commissioning of the second Power Reactor Reprocessing Plant by BARC at Tarapur. Work on setting up of an Integrated Nuclear Recycle Plant with facilities for both reprocessing of spent fuel and waste management have also commenced at Kalpakkam. At the Waste Immobilisation Plant, Kalpakkam, the trials on second ceramic melter have been started. The inland sites are considered appropriate for setting up 700 MW PHWRs. The government has approved green field sites at Gorakhpur (Haryana) and Chutka (Madhya Pradesh) for these reactors. Pre project activities including land acquisition have been taken up at these sites. More sites are also currently under consideration by the Government for setting up additional 700 MW PHWRs. India's Three Stage Nuclear Power Programme will be reaching a capacity of 10000 MW in the near term based on indigenous uranium, while the technologies for second stage and advanced reactor systems need more time for development and commercial deployment. The three stages of the programme have important fuel cycle linkages and need to be executed sequentially. Nuclear Power in India has been by and large an indigenous effort and developed in isolation of the global developments. This has resulted in 20 reactors but with installed capacity of 4780 MW only. There was a realization that with 16% of the world's population, having reached an advanced maturity in nuclear power and have handled nuclear business as a responsible nation, we should not remain isolated. This resulted, around the year 2000, in discussions on international co-operation in nuclear power. The discussions started with co-operation in nuclear safety assessment as a first stage and evolved for commercial exploitation later. These discussions resulted in agreement of the Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG) to have nuclear co-operation in India, safeguard agreement with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and nuclear co-operation agreement with many countries including with USA, France and Russian Federation. In parallel, work also proceeded on the required legislative framework. The essential framework for setting up of Nuclear Power Reactors with foreign co-operation, import of fuel and other nuclear equipment / components and also option for the Indian industry to participate in the global nuclear market has been established. The improvement of plant load factor as a result of availability of imported uranium, first benefit of international co operation, for reactors under safeguards is clear from the capacity factors for the year 2010-11.
Future Plans
2012
The Government of India, as a first step, also identified four sites at coastal locations for setting up large capacity reactors with foreign collaboration. Preliminary discussions with France, Russian Federation, General Electric Co and Westinghouse were also initiated for setting-up of these reactors. The country is fully poised to establish a nuclear capacity of 10,000 MW through first set of reactors, based on foreign collaboration. The sites for these reactors have been approved by the Government. The process of pre project activities including land acquisition has been initiated. Ministry of Environment & Forests after evaluation of the Environment Impact Assessment Report and review of proceedings of the public hearing have accorded environmental clearance in respect of Kudankulam and Jaitapur sites. The terms of reference in respect of Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh sites for EIA studies have also been approved by MoE&F. Setting up Light Water Reactors is in addition to the nuclear power reactors belonging to the indigenous nuclear power programme, which is proceeding as originally envisaged. The setting up of the reactors based on foreign collaboration is to be seen as an additionality and not at the cost to the indigenous nuclear power program which will not only be continued but in fact be accelerated.
100 80 60 40 20
TAPS-3
MAPS-1
Civil nuclear cooperation agreements have been signed with many countries, including, USA, Russia, France, UK, South Korea, Namibia, Mongolia, Canada and others. The Bilateral Agreements signed during the year 2010 were as follows: Arrangements and Procedures agreed between India and the USA pursuant to Article 6 of their Agreement for Cooperation Concerning Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy. Joint Declaration by India and the United Kingdom on Civil Nuclear Cooperation. Agreement between India and the Russian Federation on Cooperation in the Use of Atomic Energy for Peaceful Purposes.
MAPS-2
NAPS-1
NAPS-2
TAPS-4
RAPS-2
RAPS-4
RAPS-5
RAPS-2
RAPS-1
RAPS-1
RAPS-3
RAPS-2
RAPS-6
KGS-4
KGS-3
KGS-1
KGS-2
2012
49
Agreement between India and Canada for Cooperation in Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy. Agreement between India and Argentine Republic for Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy. Agreement between the French Republic and India, concerning Intellectual Property Rights on the Development of the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy. Agreement between India and the French Republic on the Protection of Confidentiality of Technical data and information relating to Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy. Road Map for the Serial construction of the Russian Design Nuclear Power Plants in India. Memorandum of Understanding between DAE and the State Atomic Energy Corporation ROSATOM concerning broader Scientific and Technological co-operation in the field of peaceful uses of nuclear energy. Agreement with the European Atomic Energy Community for cooperation in the field of Fusion Energy Research.
The Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act-2010 has been enacted in September 2010. This act provides for civil liability for nuclear damage, and prompt compensation to the victims of a nuclear incident through a no fault liability regime channeling liability to the operator. With a domestic legislation in place, India has also signed Convention of Supplementary Compensation for nuclear damage (CSC) in October 2010. The CSC also allows for compensating civil damage occurring within a State's exclusive economic zone, including loss of tourism or fisheries related income. Post March 11, 2011 the accident in Japan, the Prime Minister has ordered a review of safety systems at all the nuclear plants in the country. The Prime Minister informed both Houses of Parliament that India was in constant touch with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the Japanese Atomic Industrial Forum and the World Association of Nuclear Operators. The Department of Atomic Energy and its agencies, including the Nuclear Power Corporation of India (NPCIL) have been instructed to undertake an immediate technical review, he said. He assured the country that its atomic power generators were safe. The Prime Minister took another review on 1st June 2011 with emphasis on disaster management and safety upgrade to include beyond design basis accidents. It is pointed out that in the Generation 3 & 3+ NPPs which India will be setting up with foreign cooperation, beyond design basis accident and severe accidents are addressed in the design. These NPPs as well as Indian PHWRs will withstand a Fukushima type of multiple natural disasters with almost no or minimal action in public. However this needs to be rechecked by thorough review and modifications, if required, will be carried out.
Legislative Framework
Beyond Fukushima
2012
50
Two important decisions made very promptly are creation of an independent regulatory authority and bringing a National Regulatory Authority of India Act in Monsoon session and acceptance of an international review OSART by India. These actions which were swift and decisive indicate the importance of nuclear safety and commitment of India's for global cooperation in nuclear power. Unlike many other countries where no nuclear power plants have been set up during last two decades, nuclear power is an on going activity where new plants have been set up at regular intervals since 1990.
70 60 50
Nos.
40 30 20 10 0
19 90 991 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 000 001 02 003 004 005 006 007 008 009 010 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 20 2
World
India
While the setting up of nuclear power plants is by Government owned companies, large number of industries, both in private and public sector, have been responsible for manufacturing of the components for nuclear plants. These companies have acquired expertise in high tech manufacture over the year and the manufacturing base in India is alive and vibrant. The expertise for manufacture of high pressure components like reactor vessel or steam generators for light water reactors of 1000 MW and higher is only marginal and well within reach of the industry. The manufacturing industry is poised to be a hub for global nuclear needs including services for the nuclear plants. Surely, for a significant nuclear power programme in future, more players will be needed. The current thinking is to involve other players and set up nuclear plants jointly as permitted by the Atomic Energy Act. These players mostly from power/ energy sector, having obtained the experience can set up plants on their own.
2012
51
In conclusion, the nuclear industry in India has made great strides in mastering the technology and has acquired comprehensive capabilities in the complete fuel cycle. The indigenous programme has been robust and on course. While the potential of electricity generation is huge, the respective technologies need time before commercial deployment. International cooperation can make significant contribution in capacity addition and serve global nuclear markets from the Indian industry. While nuclear power as base load electricity generation source has significant advantages in terms of economic competitiveness, much lower infrastructure relative to fossil fuels for fuel transportation, lower fatalities per kilowatthour of electricity generation, and emission comparable to renewable sources of energy, invisibility of radiation associated with nuclear power does put fear in the minds of public. This needs a quantum jump in interaction with public in a transparent manner so as to increase the public acceptance of nuclear power. At the same time actions of the Government to further enhance the safety need to be implemented by all stake holders in nuclear power.
To Sum up
2012
RAJASTHAN ATOMIC POWER STATION UNIT - 1 TO 4 (1X100, 1X200 & 2X220) MWe, CHITTORGARH DIST., RAJASTHAN
TARAPUR ATOMIC POWER PROJECT UNIT - 3 & 4 (2X540) MWe, THANE DIST., MAHARASHTRA
NARORA ATOMIC POWER STATION UNIT - 1&2 (2X220) MWe, BULANDSHAHR DIST., UTTAR PRADESH
MADRAS ATOMIC POWER STATION UNIT - 1&2 (2X220) MWe, CHINGLEPUT DIST., TAMILNADU
52
V. Raghuraman Former Principal advisor (Energy) Confederation of Indian Industries V. Raghuraman is a post graduate in Chemical Engineering. He has over 40 years experience in energy management, energy conservation and industrial engineering, and as a consultant, trainer and chief executive and primary specialization in combustion, fuel efficiency, in-depth industrial consulting and training activities in energy conservation, energy management and National Productivity Council (1966-1992). He pioneered 'energy audit methodology' in India and was involved with InterMinisterial working group on 'Utilization and Conservation of Energy' (1981-1983). He coordinated 200 energy audits for projecting the potential of energy savings in the Indian economy. As Principal Adviser (Energy) to the Confederation of Indian Industries, he worked with policymakers, Indian government ministries and other national and international bodies on energy sector issues.
2012
53
54
Electricity is a concurrent subject in the Constitution of India. The Ministry of Power is the nodal central ministry responsible for development of power sector in India. The main items of work dealt with by the Ministry of Power are as given below: General Policy in the electric power sector and issues relating to energy policy and coordination thereof. All matters relating to hydro-electric power (except small/mini/micro hydel projects of and below 25 MW capacity) and thermal power and transmission & distribution system network; Research, development and technical assistance relating to hydro-electric and thermal power, transmission system network and distribution systems in the States/UTs; Administration of the Electricity Act, 2003, the Energy Conservation Act, 2001, the Damodar Valley Corporation Act, 1948 and Bhakra Beas Management Board as provided in the Punjab Reorganisation Act, 1966. All matters relating to Central Electricity Authority, Central Electricity Board and Central Electricity Regulatory Commission; Rural Electrification; Power schemes and issues re l at i n g to p o we r s u p p l y / d e ve l o p m e nt schemes/programmes/ decentralized and distributed generation in the States and Union Territories; All matters concerning energy conservation
Introduction
Vision, Mission and Objectives of Ministry of Power Vision Reliable, adequate and quality power for all at reasonable prices. Mission Ministry of Power seeks to achieve its vision by providing necessary support and enabling policy framework for integrated development of power infrastructure in the country to meet the requirements of the growing economy and to meet the requirements and aspirations of the people for quality power particularly of poor households in rural areas. Objectives Improving the power availability. Expanding the Transmission Network in the country Universal power access through implementation of RGGVY scheme Reducing AT & C losses though implementation of R-APDRP scheme Enhancing the availability of trained and skilled manpower for the power sector
2012
Public Sector Undertakings and other organizations under the administrative control of the Ministry Bhakra Beas Management Board (except matters relating to irrigation) Bureau of Energy Efficiency Central Power Research Institute Damodar Valley Corporation National Hydroelectric Power Corporation Limited National Power Training Institute Installed Capacity
Figure1 : Sector wise share in installed capacity
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Central State Sector Private
North Eastern Electric Power Corporation Limited NTPC Limited Power Finance Corporation Limited Power Grid Corporation of India Limited Rural Electrification Corporation Limited Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam Limited Tehri Hydro Development Corporation
% s h are
Hydro 38206 MW 21% Nuclear 4780 MW 3% Diesel 1200 MW Gas 1% 17706 MW 10%
The all India installed power generation capacity as on 30.08.2011 was 181558 MW comprising of 118409 MW thermal, 38206 MW hydro, 4780 MW nuclear and 20162 MW R.E.S. Over the years share of state sector in installed capacity has gone down, whereas the share of central sector and private sector has increased. In the XII plan, 60% of the capacity is expected to come in private sector.
2012
55
Generation
The annual growth in the energy generation during the year has been 5.55% against the CAGR of 5.17% during the period 2001-02 to 2010-11. The target and actually achieved generation 2010-11 is as given belowTarget generation: 830.8 BU Actual Generation: 811.1 BU Growth in Generation: 5.55 %
Category
Coal Lignite Gas Turbine (gas) (liquid fuel) Diesel Sub Total (Thermal) Nuclear Hydro Bhutan Import Total
96.25% 95.05% 99.05% 73.61% 73.52% 96.24% 119.55% 102.60% 86.15% 97.63%
Actual Last Year 2009-10 (BU) 514.7 24.8 88.2 8.4 4.0 640.5 18.6 103.9 5.4 768.4
Growth (%) 3.99% 6.59% 10.85% -70.27% -25.71% 3.81% 41.40% 10.01% 3.70% 5.56%
2012
Diesel 0.49%
Nuclear 2.65%
Coal 67.01%
Lignite 3.35%
56
National average PLF and Availability The average Plant Load Factor (PLF) achieved during the year 2010-11 was 75.07% as compared to 77.68% in the previous year. 53 power stations with an aggregate installed capacity of 53827.5 MW achieved PLF greater than the national average PLF. Main reasons of low PLF, as compared to the previous year were mainly increased forced outage of thermal units, unscheduled/ extended planned maintenance of some of the thermal units and forced shut down/ backing down of some thermal units due to raw water problems, coal shortages and receipt of poor quality / wet coal and also due to receipt of lower schedule from the beneficiary states. During the year 2010-11, one thermal power station achieved PLF greater than 100%. Dahanu TPS (500 MW) of M/s Reliance Energy Limited recorded a PLF of 101.00%. During the year 2010-11, operational availability of thermal stations has marginally reduced to 84.24 % as compared to 85.10 % during the previous year. It was mainly due to increased forced outages of thermal units. During the year 2010-11, 19 coal based thermal power stations with an aggregate installed capacity of 21995 MW operated above 90% PLF. Of these 19 stations, 10 are NTPC stations and 1 is the Bhilai TPS, a JV of NTPC and SAIL. Power Supply position in 2010-11 As reported by the CEA country had deficit of 8.5% in energy supply and the peak demand deficit was 10.3%. In 2009-10 energy deficit was 11% and peak demand deficit was 11.9%.
Figure 4: Trend of national average PLF and availability factor of Thermal Stations
100 90 85 80 70 65 60 55 50
61 60 63 64 .4 64 .7 64 .6 6 7. 3 69 6 9. 9 7 2.2 7 2.7 74 .8 73 .6 76 .8 7 8. 6 7 7. 2 7 7. 5 7 5.1 83 .72 8 4. 76 8 5. 05 8 5. 1 8 4.2 4
95
75
1992-93 57 .1
2000-01
2008-09
1994-95
2002-03
1998-99
PLF
1996-97
Availability Factor
2004-05
2006-07
2010-11
Region
2012
57
Capacity addition during 2010-11 The definitions of commissioning have been changed from the year 2008-09. Earlier rotation of the machine in case of hydro projects and oil synchronization in case of thermal projects were treated as commissioning for declaring capacity addition. However, the new definition now is-
Hydro projects: Capacity addition in respect of hydro projects would be the date when following conditions are met: (i) The trial run operation has started. (ii) The unit has achieved full rated capacity in case of Table 3 : Capacity addition in 2010-11 purely run of river station Schemes Status of APRIL 2010 - MARCH 2011 Deviation and run of river stations with Schemes Target Achievement (+) / (-) pondage. Central 6015.00 3740.00 -2275.00 Thermal (iii) The unit has achieved full State 6549.20 2581.00 -3968.20 rated capacity or the designed Pvt. 6191.00 4929.50 -1261.50 capacity corresponding to Total 18755.20 11250.50 -7504.70 prevailing reservoir level in Central 649.00 320.00 -329.00 Hydro case of storage power stations. 356.00 178.00 -178.00 State Thermal Projects: Commissioning of the plant can be related to actual output in the form of generation that is emerging from plant for auxiliary consumption and input to the grid based on its designated fuel and completion of all plants and equipments required for fuel handling and safe operation of the plant.
Pvt. To tal Nuclear Central Total RES @ All India State Pvt. Total Central State Pvt. Total 461.00 1466.00 1220.00 1220.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7884.00 6905.20 6652.00 21441.20 192.00 690.00 220.00 220.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4280.00 2979.00 5121.50 12160.50 -269.00 -776.00 -1000.00 -1000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3604.00 -3926.20 -1530.50 -9280.70
2012
INDIA ENERGY BOOK
58
The capacity addition target for the year 2010-11 was 21441 MW, out of which a capacity of 12161 MW was commissioned.
Capacity addition of 78,700 MW had been initially proposed for the XI plan. During the midterm appraisal carried out by the Planning Commission, the capacity addition Table 4 :Original Capacity addition target for XI plan (MW) target for the XI plan has been revised to Source Central State Private Total Share(%) Hydro 8654 3482 3491 15627 19.9 62374 MW. A capacity of 34463 MW has Thermal 24840 23301 11552 59693 75.8 been commissioned till 2010-11. In Nuclear 3380 3380 4.3 addition, projects totaling 12,590 MW Total 36874 26789 15043 78700 100 are being attempted for commissioning Share(%) 46.9 34 19.1 100 on best effort basis during the XI plan.
Table 5 : Capacity Addition in XI plan (MW) Year 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 (Aug'11) Total Hydro 2423 969 39 690 639 4760 Source - wise Thermal 6620 2484 9106 11250 5730 35190 Nuclear 220 0 440 220 0 880 Total 9263 3454 9585 12161 6369 40832 Central 3240 750 2180 4280 1660 12110 Sector - wise State 5273 1821 3118 2979 1289 14480 Private 750 883 4287 512 2 3420 14462 Total 9263 3454 9585 12161 6369 40832
A number of corrective steps have been initiated to prevent slippages. These include bulk tendering of 660 MW and 800 MW units with supercritical technology and mandatory phased indigenous manufacturing programme, enhancement of manufacturing capacity of equipment by BHEL from 6000 MW to 15000 MW per year and formation of joint venture companies for manufacture of various power plant equipments. For an effective monitoring of the projects, Ministry of Power has adopted 3 levels of monitoring as described below1. Monitoring by the CEA (Central Electricity Authority): The CEA has a nodal officer associated with each project and submits a monthly report for review by the chairman CEA. CEA also holds quarterly review meetings with developers and other stakeholders. 2. Monitoring by the Ministry of Power: At the apex level, the XI plan capacity addition programme is monitored by the PMO, planning commission and Cabinet secretariat. Quarterly progress reviews of the PSUs and meetings with the leading equipment manufacturers are organized by the Ministry of Power to monitor the critical milestones associated with each project. 3. Power Project Monitoring Panel (PPMP): PPMP has been set up for monitoring of thermal and hydro projects targeted for commissioning during the XI plan along with associated transmission schemes. The PPMP at present comprises of five independent project monitoring consultants. Each consultant is responsible for submitting progress and exception report of projects assigned to it. All such reports are consolidated by the coordinator consultant and Figure 5 : Sector-wise % share of capacity addition submitted to the Ministry of Power.
100%
2012
The stipulation under section 63 of Electricity Act 2003 has provided impetus to the participation of private sector in generation and transmission. The private investors have responded to the policy initiatives very positively.
0%
59
Major policy initiatives to streamline the process of project development: To accelerate capacity addition several policy initiatives have been undertaken by Ministry of Power. Some of the prominent policy initiatives which have boosted the private players' confidence in the sector are: National Electricity Policy. Ultra Mega Power Project Policy. Mega Power Policy. Tariff Policy. New Hydro Policy 2008 Captive power plants The Electricity Act, 2003 does away with the requirement of approval /clearance of any authority for setting up a captive generating plant. The new law (as amended) also ensures non-discriminatory open access for transmission of electricity generated from a captive generating plant to the destination of its use, subject to availability of transmission capacity. The surcharge and cross subsidies are being progressively reduced in a manner as may be specified by the State Regulatory Commission. Any person setting up a captive power plant can also establish and maintain dedicated transmission lines. Open access to transmission Under the new Electricity Act, 2003, non-discriminatory open access in transmission and distribution has been envisaged. The move is intended to encourage competition amongst generators and distributors and trading in power from surplus to deficit regions. Generating company permitted to distribute electricity in rural areas Section 14 of the Electricity Act, 2003 allows any generator of electricity to distribute electricity in a rural area without the requirement of any license, subject to compliance with the measures as may be specified by the Central Electricity Authority under Section 53. Under the provisions of Section 4 of the Act, the Central Government, in consultation with the State Governments, has prepared and notified a National Policy, facilitating stand alone systems (including those based on renewable sources of energy and other non-conventional sources of energy) for rural areas. Automatic approval for FDI Automatic approval (RBI route) for 100% foreign equity is permitted in generation, transmission, and distribution and trading in power sector without any upper ceiling on the quantum of investment.
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Setting up of Ultra Mega Power Projects The Government of India had launched an initiative for the development of coal-based Ultra Mega Power Projects (UMPPs), each with a capacity of 4,000 MW. The objective of the initiative is to obtain cheaper tariffs utilizing economies of scale and to mitigate the risk relating to tie up of land, fuel, water and other statutory clearances. The projects are awarded to developers on the basis of tariff-based competitive bidding. To facilitate tie-up of inputs and clearances, project-specific shell companies have been set up as wholly owned subsidiaries of the Power Finance Corporation (PFC) Ltd. These companies undertake preliminary studies and obtain clearances relating to water, land, fuel and power off take tie-up prior to award of the project. Originally, nine sites were identified by CEA in various States for the proposed UMPPs. These included four pithead sites, one each in Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh and Orissa, and five coastal sites, one each in Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. It is proposed to set up pithead projects as integrated projects with captive coal mines and for the coastal projects, usage of imported coal is envisaged. The UMPP projects would help lower the cost of power to consumers and reduce emissions.
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23.04.2007 800 MW
07.08.2007 660 MW January, 2013 April, 2013 July, 2013 October, 2013 February, 2014 June, 2014
23.03.2008 660 MW June, 2013 October, 2013 February, 2014 June, 2014 October, 2014 February, 2015 Loan document signed. BTG order placed. Soil investigation for sea water intake system in progress. Leveling of main plant site completed.
07.08.2009 660 MW May, 2015 October, 2015 March, 2016 August, 2016 January, 2017 June, 2017 Land acquisition in progress. Soil investigations in progress. EPC contract placed.
Unit 1 September, 2011 Unit 2 March, 2012 Unit 3 July, 2012 Revised COD Unit 4 November, 2012 Unit 5 March, 2013 Unit 6 Unit 1 ready for commissioning. Associated transmission line not completed, likely to be delayed beyond September, 2011
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Other Details
Boiler erection started, TG raft cast for unit-3, Construction for BOP commenced, contract awarded for major coal mining equipment
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For the UMPP at Sarguja in Chhatisgarh and Sundargarh in Orissa, RfQ have been issued. For Tamilnadu UMPP, site at Cheyyur has been finalized with the captive port at Panaiyur. The site for second UMPP in Andhra Pradesh has been finalized at Nayunipalli Village in Prakasham District. The sites in the States of Jharkhand, Tamilnadu and Gujarat for their second UMMPPs are being examined.
Transmission projects continue to be accorded a high priority in the context of the need to evacuate power from generating stations to load centres, system strengthening and creation of National Grid.
Transmission
Table 7 : Status of transmission sector as in Aug'11 Description Transmission Lines Sub-stations +/- 500 KV HVDC Lines +/- 500 KV HVDC Converter / BTB Stn. Converter Terminal Unit Circuit Km MVA Circuit Km MW Central State JV/Pvt Total Rating 4667 409 5076 765 kV 72571 31641 6387 110599 400 kV 10549 125758 425 136732 220 kV 4500 4500 765 kV 69100 67652 630 137382 400 kV 5856 201365 1440 208661 220 kV 5948 1504 1980 9432 500 KV HVDC 9500 1700 11200 MW
Table 8 : PROGRESS OF TRANSMISSION LINES PROJECTS (in ckt. Km) Voltage Level 400 KV Sector Central Sector State Sector JV/Private Sector Total Central Sector State Sector JV/Private Sector Total Grand Total Programme 2010-11 Including slipped in 2009-10 7261 2889 2365 12515 481 5375 192 6048 18563 Achievement Ckt. km % 4718 2308 970 64.98% 79.89% 41.01%
220kV
7996 63.89% 268 55.72% 6539 121.66% 358 186.46% 7165 118.47% 15161 81.67%
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Table 9 : PROGRESS OF SUBSTATION PROJECTS (in MVA) Sector Programme 2010-11 Including Achievement slipped in 2009-10 MVA % Central Sector State Sector JV/Private Sector Total Central Sector State Sector JV/Private Sector Total 5010 10320 630 15960 650 11000 126 11776 27736 4650 92.81% 8690 84.21% 630 100.00% 13970 87.53% 660 101.54% 17027 154.79% 0 0.00% 17687 150.20% 31657 114.14%
220kV
Grand Total
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The exploitable energy resources in our country are concentrated in certain pockets. As a result, some regions do not have adequate natural resources for setting power plants to meet future requirements whereas others have abundant natural resources. This has necessitated formation of National Power Grid to transmit power from resource rich areas to deficit areas as well as to facilitate scheduled/ unscheduled exchange of power. POWERGRID, the Central Transmission Utility (CTU) is responsible for establishing the requisite transmission capacity in the central sector to match the generation capacity addition and encourage inter-state/inter-regional exchange of power to mitigate the situation of surplus/deficit of power in various regions. Ministry of Power has envisaged the establishment of an integrated National Power Grid in the country by the year 2012 with an inter-regional power transfer capacity of about 38,650 MW. A perspective transmission plan has been evolved for strengthening the regional grids and enhance the interregional power transfer capacity of National Grid with the ultimate objective of establishment of a strong National Grid to support the generation capacity addition programme of XI Plan. Inter regional power transfer capacity as at the end of 2010 was 22400 MW.
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Rural electrification has been regarded as a vital programme for the development of rural areas. In 1947, only 1500 villages were electrified in India and per capita consumption was 14 units. The initial focus was on 'electrification for irrigation' to enhance agricultural produce which was reflected in the definition of village electrification accepted till 1997 - that "a village was deemed to be electrified if electricity is being used within its revenue area for any purpose whatsoever". This definition of village electrification was reviewed in consultation with the State Governments and State Electricity Boards and following new definition was adopted after 1997: "A village will be deemed to be electrified if-electricity is used in the inhabited locality within the revenue boundary of the village for any purpose whatsoever. In February, 2004, the definition was made even more encompassing as also target specific. A village would be declared electrified if : Basic infrastructure such as distribution transformer and distribution lines are provided-in the inhabited locality as well as the dalit basti/ hamlet where it exists. (For electrification through Non-conventional Energy Sources a distribution transformer may not be necessary). ii. Electricity is provided to public places like schools, panchayat offices, health centres, dispensaries, community centres, etc. and iii. The number of households electrified should be at least 10% of the total number of households in the village. Government of India from time to time has launched the following programmes for electrification of rural areas in the country: i.
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INDIA ENERGY BOOK
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Rural Electrification under Minimum Needs Programme (MNP) was started in 5th Five Year Plan with rural electrification as one of the components of the programme. Under this programme funds were provided as Central assistance to the states in the form of partly grants and partly loans. The areas covered under the MNP for the purposes of rural electrification were remote, far flung and difficult villages with low load potential. Pradhan Mantri Gramodaya Yojana (PMGY) scheme was implemented from financial year-2001-02 and State Electricity Boards/ Electricity Departments/Power Utilities were designated as implementing agencies. Funds under the programme were provided to the states as Additional Central Assistance. Kutir Jyoti Scheme was launched in 1988-89 to provide single point light connections to households of rural families below the poverty line including harijans and adivasi families. The allocation amongst the States was based on the size of rural population below the poverty line and level of village electrification in the State, with higher weightage given to States having larger population of rural poor and low electrification levels.
Accelerated Rural Electrification Programme (AREP) scheme was introduced in the year 2003-04 under which interest subsidy of 4% was to be provided on loans availed by State Governments/ Power Utilities from Financial Institutions for carrying out rural electrification programme. The assistance was limited to electrification of un-electrified villages, electrification of hamlets/ dalitbastis/ tribal villages and electrification of households in village through both conventional and non-conventional sources of energy. A scheme called Accelerated Electrification of one lakh villages and one crore households was introduced by Government of India in 2004-05 by merging the interest subsidy Scheme AREP (Accelerated Rural Electrification Programme) and Kutir Jyoti Programme. Under this scheme there was a provision for providing 40% capital subsidy for rural electrification projects and the balance as loan Assistance on soft terms from REC. The above rural electrification schemes have either been discontinued or merged with RGGVY. This Scheme of Rural Electricity Infrastructure and Household Electrification was introduced in April, 2005 for achieving the National Common Minimum Programme objective of providing access to electricity to all Rural Households. Rural Electrification Corporation (REC) is the nodal agency for the programme. Under this scheme 90% Capital Subsidy is provided for rural -electrification infrastructure as given below. Balance 10% is loan assistance on soft terms by REC. i. Creation of Rural Electricity Distribution Backbone (REDB) with one 33/11 kV (or 66/11 kV) substation in every block where it does not exist. ii. Creation of Village Electricity Infrastructure (VEl) for electrification of all un-electrified villages/habitations and provision of distribution transformer(s) of appropriate capacity in every village/habitation. iii. Decentralized Distributed Generation (DDG) and Supply System from conventional sources for villages/ habitations where grid supply is not cost effective and where Ministry of New and Renewable Energy would not be providing electricity through their programme(s).
The scheme also provides for funding of electrification of all un-electrified Below Poverty Line (BPL) households with 100% capital subsidy. Capital subsidy of Rs. 280 billion during XI Plan period has been provided at this stage, which includes a provision of subsidy of Rs. 5.4 billion for DDG.
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Status of Rural Electrification under Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana (RGGVY)
All the States except Delhi & Goa have signed Agreements under RGGVY. CPSUs are implementing the scheme in 138 districts. 578 projects have been taken up to electrify 11,7819 un-electrified villages and to release free connections to 24.6 million BPL households. At the end of September
2011, the cumulative achievement is - electrification of 98,054 un-electrified villages, intensive electrification of 216,532 already electrified villages and release of connections to 17.26 million BPL households. Franchisees are in place/operation in 16 States namely, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Karnataka, West Bengal, Assam, Nagaland, Haryana, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar, Gujarat, Punjab, Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh covering 1,10,567 villages. Revenue collection and consumer services have improved in the States where franchisees are in operation. All the 27 States participating in RGGVY have notified constitution of District Committees to, inter-alia, monitor the implementation of RGGVY & all States have notified rural areas to take the advantage of the exemptions provided in the Act for setting up Decentralized Distributed Generation. Energy Conservation Act in 2001 and establishment of the Bureau of Energy Efficiency, (BEE) under Ministry of Power, Government of India, on 1st March 2002 paved way for institutionalization of energy conservation efforts in the country. BEE has initiated a number of energy efficiency initiatives through a range of measures, including the launch of Energy Conservation Building Code for large, new commercial buildings; the launch of energy labeling scheme for appliances; the initiation of process for the development of energy consumption norms for industrial sub sectors and an annual examination to certify energy auditors and energy managers. Energy Conservation (Amendment) Act, 2010 'Energy Conservation (Amendment) Act, 2010', notified on 25.08.2010 further strengthens the provisions for energy efficiency in buildings, appliances and equipments and has set a mechanism for incentives and penalties to energy intensive industries in lieu of complying with energy performance targets. With this amendment, there will be one Appellate Tribunal both for the Electricity Act as well as the Energy Conservation Act. Schemes for Promoting Energy Efficiency in India during XI Plan Bachat Lamp Yojana (BLY) Scheme: The Bachat Lamp Yojana aims at large scale replacement of incandescent bulbs in households by CFLs. It seeks to provide CFLs to households at the price of an incandescent bulb by leveraging the Clean Development Machanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol to recover the cost differential between the market price of the CFLs and the price at which they are sold to households. The Bachat Lamp Yojana is desiged as a public-private partnership between the Government of India, private sector CFL suppliers and State level Electricity Distribution Companies (DISCOMs). In order to reduce the transaction costs associated with the approval of CDM projects, BEE has developed a Programme of Activities (PoA), an umbrella CDM project, and is registered with the CDM Executive Board on 29th April, 2010. The individual projects, designed to be in conformity with the umbrella project, would be added to the umbrella project as and when they are prepared. More than 20 million CFLs have been distributed so far under the programme.
Energy Conservation
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Standards and Labeling program: Under this program, the end use equipments and appliances are tested and certified as compliant to energy saving norms and standards by self certification by the manufacturers and based on their performance, they are given STAR rating, ranging from 1 to 5 in the increasing order of energy efficiency. The labeling program has been notified for 12 categories of equipment but has been made mandatory from January 2010 for Frost Free Refrigerators, Distribution Transformers, Room Air Conditioners and Tubular Fluorescent Lamps Energy Conservation Building Codes: The Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC) was launched on 27th May 2007. BEE has come out with the revised edition of ECBC incorporating the comments received from stakeholders and organizations like CPWD, MES etc. This code is intended for new commercial buildings having a connected load of more than 500 kW and has initially been launched on voluntary basis. In order to ensure administration of ECBC implementation in a uniform and consistent manner all over the country, the BEE has set up an ECBC Programme Committee (EPC) by pooling in the expertise of all stake holders, including State Designated Agencies, Industry etc. This committee facilitates the development of ECBC compliant building design, credible implementation of a few demonstration projects in the public sector, making arrangements for evaluation of the progress and outcomes by creating appropriate institutional mechanism. With a view to build adequate technical capacity and develop building procedures and tools to effectively implement ECBC - a panel of 37 ECBC expert architects has been shortlisted. The shortlisted Architects would act as resource persons and are the Brand Ambassadors for the ECBC. These expert architects support the implementation of ECBC by providing services to architects who are designing ECBC compliant buildings. Energy Efficiency in Existing Buildings: There is a huge potential of energy savings in existing buildings. Energy Audit studies conducted in several office buildings, hotels and hospitals indicate energy saving potential of 23% to 46% in end uses such as lighting, cooling, ventilation, refrigeration etc. The potential is largely untapped, partly due to lack of effective delivery mechanisms for energy efficiency. Performance Contracting through Energy Service Companies is an innovative delivery mechanism for overcoming the barriers faced by energy users. The overall energy efficiency investment market size under ESCO system of performance contract in India has been estimated by the ADB Study project team at Rs. 140 billon (Rs. 14000 crores) and has the potential to save about 54 billion units of electricity annually. In order to create a market pull for Energy Efficiency activities in the commercial buildings, the Bureau of Energy Efficiency has now developed a Star Rating Programme for office buildings which is based on actual performance of the building, in terms of specific energy usage (in kWh/ sq m/year). This Programme would rate office buildings on a 1-5 star scale,with 5- star labeled buildings being the most energy efficient. Till date, 136 buildings have been found eligible for the award of label. A scheme for implementation of Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC) and
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improving energy efficiency in existing buildings has been approved by the government at a total cost of Rs.139.9 million during the XI Plan period. Targeted avoided capacity addition during XI plan through this route is 500 MW. Agricultural (Ag DSM) and Municipal (Mu DSM) Demand Side Management scheme: Ag DSM promises immense opportunity in reducing the overall power consumption, improving efficiencies of ground water extraction. Potential savings of 45-50% have been projected by many studies by mere replacement of inefficient pumps, the overall electricity savings (from 20 million pumps) is estimated at 62.1 billion units annually. A scheme has been approved at a total cost of Rs. 362.9 million for agricultural DSM. The scheme targets an avoided capacity of 2000 MW during the XI plan. Energy Efficiency in Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) Scheme: Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE), in consultation with Designated State Agencies, will initiate diagnostic studies in 25 SME clusters in the country, including a cluster in North East Region, and develop cluster specific energy efficiency manuals/booklets, and other documents to enhance energy conservation in SMEs. The scheme seeks to provide comprehensive energy efficiency solutions to 25 SME clusters Strengthening Institutional Capacity of SDAs Scheme : State Designated Agencies (SDAs) are statutory bodies set up by states to implement energy conservation measures at state level. The main emphasis of the scheme is to build capacity necessary to enable them to discharge regulatory, facilitative and enforcement functions under the Act. 32 States have designated their agencies so far. National Certification Examination for Energy Managers and Energy Auditors: National Level Certification Examination has to be passed to qualify as a Certified Energy Manager and Certified Energy Auditor, to be appointed or designated by the designated consumers under the Energy Conservation Act. The country has now 8013 Certified Energy Managers, out of which 5726 are also qualified as Certified Energy Auditors, from the 10 examinations conducted during the years 2004 to 2010. National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency (NMEEE) is one of the eight national missions under the National Action Plan on Climate Change. The mission seeks to upscale the efforts to create the market for energy efficiency which is estimated to be around Rs.74,000 crores through creation of a conducive regulatory and policy regime to foster innovative and sustainable business models to unlock this market. As a result of implementation of this Mission over the next five years, it is estimated that at the end of this period, about 23 million tons oil equivalent of fuel savings in coal, gas, and petroleum products will be achieved along with an expected avoided capacity addition of over 19,000 MW. As a consequence, carbon dioxide emission reduction is estimated to be 98.55 million tons annually. The mission was has been approved by the Cabinet on 24.06.2010. Subsequently, amendment of EC Act, 2001 was passed in both Houses of Parliament for successful implementation of the mission.
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Mechanisms under NMEEE1. Perform Achieve and Trade (PAT) is a market based mechanism to enhance cost effectiveness of improvement in energy efficiency in energy-intensive large industries and facilities, through certification of energy savings that could be traded. Energy efficiency improvement targets will be set under section 14 of the Energy Conservation Act, 2001 in a manner that reflects fuel usage and the economic efforts involved. Amendments to the Act for the effective implementation of the PAT mechanism has been considered and passed in Parliament. 2. Market Transformation for Energy Efficiency (MTEE) is a mechanism to accelerate the shift to energy efficient appliances in designated sectors through innovative measures to make the products more affordable. The focus is on leveraging international financial instruments, including CDM to make energy efficient appliances affordable and increase their levels of penetration. 3. Energy Efficiency Financing Platform (EEFP) is an important enabling mechanism which seeks to enable financing of demand side management programmes in all sectors by capturing future energy savings. It would help stimulate necessary funding for Energy Service Company (ESCO) based delivery mechanisms for energy efficiency. 4. Framework for Energy Efficient Economic Development (FEEED) mechanism seeks to develop fiscal instruments and policy measures like the Partial Risk Guarantee Fund (PRGF) and Venture Capital Fund for Energy Efficiency (VCFEE), Public Procurement of energy efficient goods and services, Utility based Demand Side Management (DSM), etc.
BEE is the nodal agency for implementation of the mission and Director General, BEE designated as the Mission Director. In addition, a company named as Energy Efficiency Services Ltd. (EESL), as a Joint Venture of 4 CPSUs viz. NTPC, PGCIL, REC and PFC has been created to provide implementation leadership in the market. The enabling financing required to create the appropriate market conditions to enable investments to the tune of Rs. 74,000 crores to flow in, is Rs. 435.35 crores. The Cabinet approved the National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency (NMEEE) with a financial outlay of Rs. 235.35 crores and a budgetary provision for Rs. 108.30 crores was made for the year 2010-11. Electricity (Amendment) Act, 2007 The Electricity (Amendment) Act, 2007, which came into force w.e.f. 15.6.2007 has amended certain provisions of the Electricity Act, 2003. The main features of the Amendment Act are: Central Government, jointly with State Governments, to endeavour to provide access to electricity to all areas including villages and hamlets through rural electricity infrastructure and electrification of households. No license required for sale of electricity from captive units. Definition of theft expanded to cover use of tampered meters and use for unauthorized purpose.
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Theft made explicitly cognizable and non-bailable. Deletion of the provision for elimination of cross subsidies. The provision for reduction of cross subsidies would continue.
Tariff Policy The provisions of Tariff Policy notified under Section 3 of the Electricity Act, 2003 on 6th January, 2006 regarding mandatory procurement of power by distribution licensees has come into effect from 6th January, 2011 even for public sector projects. Para 6.4 (1) of Tariff Policy has been amended on 20.1.2011 fixing a minimum percentage of the total consumption of electricity in the area of a distribution licensee from solar energy, in accordance with the National Solar Mission strategy. Guidelines for Procurement of Electricity In compliance with Section 63 of the Electricity Act, 2003, the Central Government on January 19, 2005 had notified guidelines for procurement of power by Distribution Licensees through competitive bidding. On March 31, 2006, Central Government has also issued the Standard Bidding Documents for Case-2 containing Request For Qualification (RFQ), Request For Proposal (RFP) and model Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) for long term procurement of power from projects having specified site and location through tariff based competitive bidding. SBD (standard bidding document) for Case-2 has been amended on 12.03.2010. The Central Government has also issued Standard Bidding Document for Case-1 on April 2, 2009, where the location, technology, or fuel is not specified by the procurer and amended on 21.7.2010 after consultation with stakeholders. Operationalisation of open access: Open access is one of the key features of Electricity Act, 2003 for making the electricity industry competitive. Open access in inter-State transmission is fully operational. To give a fresh impetus to implementation of open access over transmission lines of State Utilities and over the distribution networks, discussions have been held at senior most levels. It has been resolved that nondiscriminatory open access in intra-State transmission and distribution system would be provided in letter and spirit as per the provisions of the Electricity act and the National Policies. Power exchanges CERC has issued guidelines for setting up power exchanges. Two Power Exchanges i.e. Indian Energy Exchange and Power Exchange India Ltd. are functional. In principle approval has been given by CERC to National Power Exchange Ltd. but it is yet to become operational. Reorganisation of the State Electricity Boards Before enactment of the Electricity Act, 2003, various States had enacted State Electricity Reforms Acts, which provided for reorganization of their State Electricity Boards (SEB). Section 172 (a) of the Electricity Act, 2003 provides that the SEB shall be deemed to be the State Transmission Utility (STU) and a licensee under the provisions of the Act for a period of one year from the appointed date, i.e. 10th June, 2003. However a SEB can continue for some more time as agreed to mutually by State and Central Government. So far, 18 states have reorganized their SEBs and three States (Bihar, Jharkhand and Kerala) have requested for extension of time for reorganization of their respective SEBs.
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Distribution Reforms The Ministry of Power has taken various initiatives towards reforms and other policy measures for helping the state power Utilities bring improvement in their efficiency towards bringing about commercial viability in the power sector. Some of the major initiatives are establishment of regulatory mechanism at central and state level, restructuring of the state power Utilities, metering of feeders & consumers, energy accounting & auditing, securitization of outstanding dues of CPSUs. 20 SEBs / Electricity Departments have been unbundled & corporatised. Accelerated Power Development and Reforms Programme The Accelerated Power Development Reforms Programme (APDRP) was launched in 2002-03 for implementation in 10th Plan as additional central assistance to the states for strengthening and up-gradation of sub-transmission and distribution systems of high-density load centres like towns and industrial areas. The main objectives of the programme were to reduce AT&C loss, reduction of commercial loss and improve quality and reliability of supply. Revised APDRP (RADRP) has since been launched, which is covered subsequently. Here we describe the original provisions in the APDRP. The Programme had two components: investment component and incentive component. Investment component- Central Government provided assistance to the tune of 25% and 90% of the project cost in the form of grant to Non-special category and Special Category states respectively. Balance amount had to be arranged from financial institutions / own resources. Earlier, Government was providing 10% loan to special category and 25% to Non-special category states in addition to the grant as mentioned above. However, as recommended by the 12th Finance Commission, the loan component was discontinued by the Ministry of Finance w.e.f. 200506. Funds were released by Ministry of Finance, Government of India under the advice from Ministry of Power in three installments progressively based on implementation progress. Incentive component- This component was designed to incentivize the SEBs / utilities to reduce their financial losses. Funds were to be released to the SEBs for actual cash loss reduction, for every Rs.2 of cash loss reduction Rs.1 was to be given as grant. The cash losses were calculated net of subsidy and receivables. The year 2000-01 had been adopted as the base year for the purpose. The AT&C loss loss came down in towns where APDRP was implemented. Some of the utilities which adopted various interventions as envisaged under the programme showed significant reduction in AT&C loss. AT&C losses were brought down below 20% in 215 APDRP towns in the country, of which 163 towns were brought below 15%. The billing efficiency at national level improved from 68.37% during 2002-03 to 71.04% during 2006-07. The national average collection efficiency also improved from 92.68% during 2002-03 to 94.20% during 2006-07. With this improvement in billing and collection efficiency, the national average AT&C loss of the distribution companies reduced from 36.63% to 33.07%. The overall commercial loss (without subsidy) of the utilities reduced from Rs. 293.31 billion during 2001-02 to Rs. 274.46 billion during 2006-07.
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RE-STRUCTURED APDRP Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) approved the Re-structured APDRP" for XI Plan as a Central Sector Scheme on 31.07.2008. The focus of the re-structured programme is on actual, demonstrable performance in terms of AT&C loss reduction. Projects under the scheme are to be taken up in two parts in urban areas-towns and cities with population of more than 30,000 (10,000 in case of special category states). Projects execution under the scheme is to be taken up as given belowPart A: It shall include the projects for establishment of baseline data and IT applications for energy accounting/auditing & IT based consumer service centers. It shall cover preparation of base-line data for the project area covering Consumer Indexing, GIS Mapping, Metering of Distribution Transformers and Feeders, and Automatic Data Logging for all Distribution Transformers and Feeders.SCADA / DMS system shall be included for big cities only. It would also include Asset Mapping of the entire distribution network at and below the 11kV transformers and include the Distribution Transformers and Feeders, Low Tension lines, poles and other distribution network equipment. It will also include adoption of IT applications for meter reading, billing & collection, energy accounting & auditing, redressal of consumer grievances, establishment of IT enabled consumer service centers etc. The base line data shall be verified by an independent agency appointed by the Ministry of Power. Expected investment in Part-A (Baseline System) shall be Rs. 100 billion. Initially 100% funds for part A shall be provided through loan from the Govt. of India. The entire amount of loan for Part-A projects shall be converted into grant once the establishment of the required Base-line data system is achieved and verified by an independent agency appointed by MoP. Part B: It shall cover regular distribution strengthening projects, which will include, renovation, modernization and strengthening of 11 kV level substations, transformers/transformer centers, reconductoring of lines at 11kV level and below, Load Bifurcation, Load Balancing, HVDS, installation of capacitor banks and mobile service centers etc. In exceptional cases, where subtransmission system is weak, strengthening at 33 kV or 66 kV levels may also be considered. Expected investment in Part-B shall be Rs. 400 billion. In case of Part-B, 25% (90% for special category states) funds shall be provided through loan from the Govt. of India. The balance funds for Part B projects shall be raised from financial institutions. Up to 50% (90% for special category States) of the project cost of Part-B projects shall be converted into grant in five equal installments on achieving the 15% AT&C loss in the project area on a sustainable basis for a period of five years. In addition, utility level loss reduction (AT&C losses) @ 3% per annum for utilities with baseline loss levels exceeding 30% and @ 1.5% for utilities with baseline loss levels less than 30% have to be achieved. Part C: Part C of the programme is an enabling component for the implementation of APDRP. Provision of Rs 11.77 billion has been provided in the scheme. This part is to be implemented by Ministry of Power / Nodal Agency. PFC has been appointed as nodal agency for operationalising the programme. The activities included in Part-C are-
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1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Preparation of a template for System Requirement Specifications Validation of the Base-line data Appointment of project advisors and project management consultants Appointment of a panel of project evaluators for project evaluation Capacity building and development of franchisees in distribution sector Carrying out consumer attitude survey
Part D: Under Part D of the scheme, there is provision for incentive for utility staff in towns where AT&C loss levels are brought below the base line levels. An amount equivalent to 2% of the grant for Part-B projects (Rs 4 billion) is proposed as incentive of utility staff in project areas where AT&C loss levels are brought below 15%. Implementation of Re- Structured APDRP A Steering Committee under Secretary (Power) comprising of representatives of Ministry of Finance, Planning Commission, Central Electricity Authority, Power Finance Corporation, Rural Electrification Corporation, selected State Governments (on one year rotation basis) and of Ministry of Power has been constituted. The Steering Committee will a) Sanction projects, including modification or revision of estimates; Monitor and review the implementation of the Scheme; b) Approve the guidelines for operationalisation of various components of the schem including the approval of the charges to be paid to the nodal agency; c) Approve and sanction activities to be taken up by the Ministry under Part C of the Scheme; d) Appoint agencies for verification and validation of base-line data systems, for verifying the fulfillment of programme conditions by utilities; e) Approve conversion of loan into grant upon fulfillment of the necessary conditions.
Status of Re- Structured APDRP 1401 projects have been approved for 29 states under Part-A at the cost of Rs 56.49 billion. Under part-B, 775 projects worth Rs. 148.54 billion were sanctioned. Budget allocation for 2010-11 was Rs. 25.71 billion (Rs. 24.71 billion as loan and Rs. 1 billion as grant). Regulation Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) CERC is an independent statutory body with quasi-judicial powers. It was constituted on 25th July, 1998 under the Electricity Regulatory Commission's Act, 1998 and has been continued under Electricity Act, 2003. The Commission consists of a Chairperson and four other Members including the Chairperson, CEA as the Ex-officio Member. The functions of CERC include Tariff regulation regulation of tariff of w Generating companies owned or controlled by the Central Government
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w Other generating companies having a composite scheme for generating and sale of electricity in more than one State w Inter-state transmission of electricity w Regulation of inter-State transmission of electricity; w Granting licence for inter-state transmission and inter- State trading in electricity; w Adjudication of disputes; w Specifying Grid Code w Specifying and enforcing the standards with respect to quality, continuity and reliability of service by licensees; w Fixing trading margin in the inter-State trading of electricity, if considered, necessary; The Commission also has advisory functions on(i) Formulation of National Electricity Policy and Tariff Policy; (ii) Promotion of competition, efficiency and economy in the activities of the electricity industry; (iii) Promotion of investment in electricity industry; (iv) Any other mater referred to the Central Commission by the Central Government.
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Tariff determination from Renewable Energy Sources Regulation 2009 These regulations have been finalized keeping in view the statutory mandate to Electricity Regulatory Commissions for promoting cogeneration and generation of electricity from renewable sources of energy. The regulations assume special importance in view of the National Action Plan on Climate Change which stipulated that minimum renewable purchase standards may be set at 5% of the total power purchases in year 2010 and thereafter should increase by 1% each year for ten years. Specifying capital cost norms and fixing tariff upfront for the whole tariff period are the two main features of the new regulations. The regulations provide normative capital costs for projects based on different renewable technologies. These capital costs are to be revised every year for incorporating the relevant escalations. The norms themselves would be reviewed in the next control period which will start after a period of three years. Connectivity, Long-term Access and Medium-term Open Access in inter-State Transmission Regulation 2009 These regulations provide transmission products of different varieties, standardization of procedures, defining the timelines and ensuring level playing field among different categories of market players. These regulations introduced medium term open access to inter-state grid through which transmission corridor can be availed for a period ranging from three months to three years. Now any 100 MW and above consumer can be connected directly to the CTU grid without having to go to the State Load Dispatch Centers (SLDC). Grant of trading licence Regulations, 2009 The new Trading Regulations aim to tighten the terms & conditions for grant of trading licence keeping in view current price of the trading power, liquidity requirements of the power trading business and to encourage only the serious players intending to undertake trading business. Power having been imported from other countries for resale in the domestic market is also covered under these regulations. Power Market Regulations, 2010 The provisions of these regulations would govern transactions in various contracts related to electricity. These regulations shall apply to various types of inter-state contracts related to electricity whether these contracts are transacted directly, through electricity traders, on power exchanges or on other exchanges. Launching electricity related contracts on exchanges would require permission of the Commission. The regulations give certain guidelines for the contracts to be dealt with by electricity traders which are to be complied with detailed capital structure. Management structure for power exchanges has been specified in the regulations keeping in view the requirements of ring-fencing, demutualization and creation of widely held market institutions. Power exchanges have been required to realign their rules and byelaws with the new regulations within a period of three months.
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Regulations for Fixation of Trading Margin, 2010 The CERC had earlier fixed a trading margin of 4 paise per unit in 2006. The earlier regulations were reviewed keeping in view the increase in the risk faced by traders which is also a function of the prices of electricity. As per new regulations, the trading margin shall not exceed 4 paise per unit if the sale price of electricity is less than or equal to Rs. 3 per unit. The ceiling of the trading margin shall be 7 paise per unit in case the selling price of electricity exceeds Rs. 3 per unit. If more than one trading licensees are involved in a chain of transactions, the ceiling on trading margin shall include the trading margins charged by all the traders put together. In other words, traders cannot circumvent the ceiling by routing the electricity through multiple transactions. Regulations on Terms and Conditions for recognition and issuance of Renewable Energy Certificate for Renewable Energy Generation, 2010 This concept seeks to address the mismatch between availability of RE sources and the requirement of the obligated entities to meet their RPO. With this regulation, a broad architecture of REC has been crafted at the national level. The RE generators will have two options - either to sell the renewable energy at a preferential tariff fixed by the concerned Electricity Regulatory Commission (ERC) or to sell the electricity generation and environmental attributes associated with RE generation separately. On choosing the second option, the environmental attributes can be exchanged in the form of REC. The price of electricity component would be equivalent to weighted average power purchase cost of the distribution company including short-term power purchase but excluding renewable power purchase cost. The Central Agency designated by CERC will issue REC to RE generators. The value of REC will be equivalent of 1 MWh of electricity injected into the grid from renewable energy sources. The REC will be exchanged only in the power exchanges approved by the CERC within the band of a floor price and a forbearance (ceiling) price to be determined by the CERC from time to time. The distribution companies, open access consumers, captive power plants (CPPs) will have an option of purchasing the REC to meet their RPO. Pertinently, RPO is the obligation mandated by the SERC under the Act, to purchase minimum level of renewable energy out of the total consumption in the area of a distribution licensee. Indian Electricity Grid Code Regulations, 2010 These regulations consist of a set of technical and commercial rules for all entities taking part in grid operation and consist of planning code, connection code operation code, scheduling and dispatch code as well as compliance thereof. These regulations lay down the rules, guidelines and standards to be followed by various persons and participants in the system to plan, develop, maintain and operate the power system, in the most secure, reliable, economic and efficient manner, while facilitating healthy competition in the generation and supply of electricity.
2012
Appellate Tribunal for Electricity The Appellate Tribunal for Electricity (APTEL) has been setup under the provisions of the Electricity Act, 2003 (section 110) with all India jurisdiction and it started functioning on 21st July, 2005. APTEL is headed by a Chairperson who has the status of a sitting judge of the Supreme Court. The Tribunal has also been conferred jurisdiction under the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board Act, 2006 to hear appeals against the orders/decisions of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board set up under the Act. APTEL hears and disposes of appeals filed against the orders of the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission, State Electricity Regulatory Commissions, Joint Commissions and Adjudicating Officers. Subsequent to the setting up of APTEL, the appeals pending in the High Courts of all States except the State of Jammu & Kashmir on the subject were also transferred to this Tribunal. The power sector is passing though challenging times. The original target of 78,700 mw of capacity addition for the eleventh plan was scaled down to 62,374 MW. This capacity addition will be feasible because investment in the private sector has grown rapidly and its share in the total capacity is likely to go up from less than 10 per cent in the Tenth Plan to 32 per cent during the eleventh plan.; and, in the twelfth plan, private sector is likely to contribute 60% of planned capacities. The slippages by the public sector are mainly impacted by issues related to procurement procedures and co-ordination within different Govt. agencies. Further capacity constraint of equipment manufactures like BHEL and Balance of Plant equipment viz coal, ash handling, cooling tower, chimney etc have compounded the delays. As public sector companies are constrained, private players have successfully established strategic partnerships with Chinese Companies; currently 36,000 MW of orders from private power companies are placed with them. Import of Chinese equipment without developing local manufacturing capabilities will also mean dependence on imported components and spare parts from China, which may turn out to be a bottleneck as is being experienced by some utilities. Challenges persist with respect site clearances, problems in open access and fuel linkages. The 'go' and 'no go' areas for coal projects is adding to further uncertainties. 17,000 MW of new projects are held up due to in-ordinate delays in getting mining projects allotted and obtaining environment and forest clearances. While coal production needs to be increased 8 10% every year the achievement is less than 5-6 %. Even in this scenario, 70 million tonnes of coal is piled up pitheads, which cannot be moved due to rail bottlenecks. It is easier to acquire and develop mines in Australia and Indonesia with predictable timeframes along with the port and rail infrastructure. But getting coal from outside is expensive and has implications of energy security. Indonesia has recently tightened the conditions on exports and prices. Australia has imposed additional tax. Imported coal will be 50% more expensive with additional challenges of port and rail linkages within the country.
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It is in this context, the recommendation by Central Electricity Authority advisory to power developers to adopt boiler with design to use 30% imported coal needs to be under scored. Using imported coal will increase generation costs and utilities may not opt to buy costly power. For instance NTPC had its PLF drop from 91% in 2009-10 to 88% in 2010-11. States prefer load-shedding than to buy costlier power. In fact capacity up to 10,000 MW was not utilized last year and the power exchanges were not able to sell costly power. Hence it would be in the fitness of things for Government to announce a pool price for coal to mitigate the generation cost variations and ensure a level playing field for all developers. It is reported that the UMPP projects with competitive tariff bids with fuel costs not allowed as pass through will face difficulties; unless tariff revisions are done in time the projects may not come up or even if they come up will not be able to operate due to high fuel costs. The case of Adani power and Gujarat Urja Vikas Nigam Limited (GUVNL) is another example where the supplier gave a notice of termination of PPA arrived based on case-1 tariff based bidding, citing increased fuel cost because it could not get domestic coal linkage and with imported coal the cost of electricity would be higher. Though The Appellate Tribunal for Electricity (APTEL) has ruled against the termination of contract, uncertainty on fuel prices puts a question mark over the plants coming up through tariff based route. It is reported that draw out of loans in many power projects is not according to schedule as the projects are on a pause mode. Implementation risks coupled with banks nearing their sector exposure limits, pose difficulties in new projects realizing financial closure. Banks are asking companies to tie up for fuel a year before the commercial operation where six months was the practice. Most state utilities have not revised tariffs for a number of years. The state electricity regulatory commissions are independent only on paper and are subjected to political compulsion. In Tamil Nadu, tariff order was issued after a gap of eight years; in Rajasthan, last revision was in 2005. The situation is similar in other states. The outcome of this inaction has resulting in monthly losses of utilities. Power Finance Corporation has estimated the annual losses of state electric utilities at Rs.51,193 cores (without subsidy) in 2008-09 and the losses this year could be over Rs.100,000 cores for which uneconomic pricing is the main factor. Political pressures continue against reduction of gross-subsidies like free power and against the cut back of distribution losses. The share of costs recovered by the SEBs has deteriorated from 82.5% in 2006-07 to 77% in 2008-09. This trend needs to be reversed. Only when rational user charges are realized, the sector will be viable and the developers will be able to execute their projects. The ominous signs are clear the need is to take bold actions with accountability well defined. Power sector has seen slow FDI, only 5% as compared to say telecom which has seen 8% of FDI in 2010-11, although 100% FDI is permissible. Commercial losses and poor health of state utilities, capped regulatory returns on equity, delays in land, forest and environmental clearances and fuel linkage constraints are the main reasons for low inflow of FDI.
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The Renovation and modernization program has not made much progress even after decade of efforts by Power Finance Corporation, BHEL and NTPC. Table 10 : Efficiency - wise Classification of Steam-Based There is hope for progress on Electricity Generation Stations in India (2007-2008) this front with the No. of Installed % of Energy Thermal Capacity Total Generated Generating Efficiency operationalisation of the PAT Installed (GWh) (MW) Stations (%) Capacity Perform, Achieve and Trade 1,503 1,696 2.23 9 20 scheme mandated by BEE for 4,418 15,453 10 5.81 >20 & 25 designated consumers which 14,055 69,071 25 18.49 >25 & 30 includes thermal power 400,970 55,580 >30 53 73.47 stations. As the power plants 76,019 486,997 97 Total have been set up over a large time frame with different capacities, technology choices and fuel quality, there is a large variation in the performance of the units.
Table 11 : Overall Thermal Efficiency of Steam With such figures PAT will identify areas to Based Electricity Generation Stations in India improve efficiency of each unit with a 3 year Year Efficiency (%) time frame to meet the target set by Energy 2004 - 2005 32.16 Audit reports. The exercise would enable 2005 - 2006 32.73 unviable units to be phased out and help - 2007 2006 32.44 Renovation and modernization Program to - 2008 2007 32.69 gain momentum. Units overachieving, that is, above the targets set, will be issued Energy Saving Certificate (Escerts), whereas those underperforming will need to buy the certificate from the achievers.
Low energy density of the Renewable Energy and remote locations in many instances make provision of evacuation infrastructure a costly affair. The project cycle time of a transmission project is much longer as compared to Renewable Energy project. An optimal planning and connectivity of Renewable energy projects is essential or else it will further increase the cost of power from renewable energy. Financing of power evacuation infrastructure for renewable is eligible for funding under NCEF and a proposal of the state of Rajasthan to evacuate 4000 MW renewable power has been processed for funding under NCEF. Advance planning of transmission network is also important for conventional power plants. First unit of Mundra UMPP, which is ready for commissioning in July 2011, is likely to be delayed beyond September 2011 for the want of connectivity. Alternate temporary arrangements are being worked out to evacuate the power. To ensure that evacuation does not become a bottleneck, Transmission projects are being planned through JV route and also total private participation through competitive bidding, which is a welcome step.
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The finding of the study by German Watch ranking 57 countries on their Climate Climate Performance Index (CCPI) 2011 have interesting observations. CCPI has been computed on three parameters namely trends, level and policy. The first three positions have not been assigned as no country is said to qualify, Brazil tops the list at No 4 and India is favorably at No 9 while US and China are at 54 and 56, Canada is at the bottom at No. 60. That the initiatives taken by India have been yielding results is evident from the CCPI. A well thought agenda with targeted goals are providing insights to tweak the orientation and improve the delivery of the intended plans with in- built monitoring and evaluation methodologies. However, the picture changes when clean technology investments are compared. Here, China leads followed by Germany and US, while India is No 10 among the G-20 list of nations. The disturbing part is the R&D investment in clean technologies. Here Japan leads followed by US, China and Germany. India is no where in the picture. While India is well positioned with its sights well set on short term goals of enhancing energy efficiency, the long term goals of technology development R&D leave much to be desired. National Clean Energy Fund (NCEF) has been created for funding research and innovative projects in clean energy technology. To build the corpus of NCEF, a clean energy cess of Rs. 50 per tonne is levied on indigenous as well as imported coal. Around Rs 3,124 crore has been collected from the coal cess in 2010-11, and the corpus under the fund is expected to be over Rs 6,500 crore in 2011-12. The NCEF corpus needs to be leveraged and a R&D plan for technology development worked out. Public Private Partnerships will help in enhancing innovation and developing cutting edge technologies to address Indian priorities and simultaneously prepare for global applications. As part of the National Mission for Development of Clean Coal (Carbon) Technologies, BHEL and NTPC have also come together to develop Advanced Ultra Supercritical (Adv-USC) technology in association with Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR). BHEL has also established R&D Gateway at IIT Madras Research Park Chennai for promoting research in Ultra Supercritical power cycles and high temperature materials. To Conclude, realising ambitious target of 800,000 MW by 2032 will be challenging task. Action will be needed on all the fronts. One suggestion put forth in the mid term appraisal of XI plan is identification of one hundred sites for environmental clearances and acquisition of land to make these ready for future power projects to reduce time taken in pre-project activities. Distribution reforms and improved health of state distribution utilities is an area which needs long due urgent attention in order to have a strong and vibrant power sector. Drawing the roadmap towards realising rational user charges with timely tariff notifications by electricity regulatory commissions are the quintessential pre-requistes for a healthy power sector.
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10th
3095 6562 11163 11633 11840 11910 12690 13692 14656 14877 17056 17706 17706
200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 1 984-8 5 1 989-9 0 1 991-9 2 1 996-9 7 2 001-0 2 2 002-0 3 2 003-0 4 2 004-0 5 2 005-0 6 2 006 -07 2007 -08 2008 -09 2009 -10 2010 -11 201 1-12 (Aug'11) 0 MW
2012
Coal
Gas
Diesel
Hydro
Nuclear
RES
83
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90000 80000 70000 60000 MW 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 VI VII I II Annual Plan Annual Plan Annual Pan X XI (Upto 201 0-11) Annual Plans IV V VIII III IX 0
Target MW
Plans
Achievement MW
84
Million Units
Total 61212 72796 110130 112820 169205 268664 289440 315631 436730 579120 596543 633275
Thermal
RES
Up to 2005-06, RES is included in Diesel, at present data for RES not available for 2010-11, 11-12
MU
2012
2 004-0 5
2 005 -06
20 08-0 9
2 009-1 0
200 6-07
200 7-08
2010 -11
85
Million Units Total Energy consumed 43724 50246 77293 78084 114068 175419 190357 207645 280146 322459 339598 360937 386134 411887 455749 501977 553995 612644
2012
Others 6%
MU
Industry 38%
1986-87
1990-91
1970-71
1974-75
1978-79
1982-83
1994-95
1998-99
2002-03
2006-07
Industry Commercial
Domestic Others
86
Village electrification
600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 1950 1966 1974 1980 1990 1997 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 0
2012
87
88
2012
Reference: 1. Office of economic advisor, Ministry of commerce and industry; URL: eaindustry.nic.in
130
Whole Sale Price Index ( Base 2004-05 = 100 )
125 120 115 110 105 100 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2005-06 2010-11 95
2012
Domestic
Commercial
Agricultural
Railway Traction
Industry
Electricity
89
90
INDIAN
Pradeep Chaturvedi Chairman Indian Association for the Advancement of Science Mr. Pradeep Chaturvedi, Chairman, Indian Association for the Advancement of Science, is an internationally known Energy and Environment Expert. He is Vice Chairman (Energy committee), World Federation of Engineering Organisations and Vice President of World Environment Foundation. He has been involved with action-oriented projects on sustainable development strategies, energy and environment policy and planning (especially the climate change) for over three decades in India and other Asian and Pacific countries. He has been involved with the Studies Programme of the World Energy Council since early 1980s. He has authored/edited 35 books of energy management, and is recipient of several Awards.
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The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) being the nodal ministry of the Government of India for matters relating to new and renewable energy, promotes renewable energy technologies to enhance their share in the total energy mix. MNRE lays down the overall policy guidelines for renewable energy programmes and provides budgetary support for research and development and demonstration of technologies; facilitates institutional finance to financial institutions; and promotes private investments through fiscal incentives, tax holidays, depreciation allowance and remunerative returns for power fed into the grid. Renewable energy sources contribute over 30% in India's primary energy supply. It is no longer alternate energy but is increasingly becoming a key part of the solution to the nation's energy needs. India has made continuous progress in electricity generation through conventional as well as renewable power generation. From the year 2002 onwards, renewable based grid capacity (as a percentage of total capacity) has increased by almost four times. In April 2002, renewable energy based power generation installed capacity was 3,497 MW which was 3% of the total installed capacity in the country. On 30 June 2011, it has reached 18455 MW, which is about 12% of the total installed capacity of 1,76, 990 MW and corresponds to a contribution of about 4.13% in terms of electrical energy.
Introduction
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Diesel 1200 MW 1%
During the first three years of the 11 Plan (2007-2012) and the current year up to 31 January 2011, renewable power capacity addition has been 8,564 MW, while the conventional power capacity addition has been 28,529 MW, which corresponds to over 23% of the total capacity addition. Major contribution has come from wind power, which is 70% of the total capacity. It is to be also noted that 23% of all capacity today is large hydro which is renewable but not accounted as such. Table-1 gives potential and contribution of different renewable sources.
th
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
Thermal
Hydro
Nuclear
Renewables
Renewable energy programme is guided by a strategic plan developed by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy for 2011 2017. This is documented in their paper titled Renewable Energy in India: Progress, Vision and Strategy. In view of the fast changing energy scenario, both domestically and internationally, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy decided to develop the Strategic Plan for the period 2011-17 so as to ensure targeted achievements for the year 2022. Based on an assessment of the external factors that are likely to affect renewable energy growth in the future, and internal capabilities, MNRE has adopted the strategy to address general and sector specific weaknesses even as successful policy initiatives are proposed to be upscaled and emerging opportunities exploited.
Strategic Plan
2010-11
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Estimated
The Strategic Plan Initiatives have been formulated to address the following issues: i) Pursue initiatives that fit national strengths; ii) Overcome weaknesses with new knowledge and capabilities; iii) Identify actions that can leverage India's strength to reduce vulnerabilities to external threats; and iv) Establish a defensive plan to prevent internal weaknesses from making it perceptible to external threats. The Strategic Plan Initiatives are expected to lead to: i) Cost reduction for incubating technologies with high future potential; ii) Opening market channels and introducing new business models; iii) Continuing improvements in regulatory and policy initiatives; iv) Developing and deploying appropriate financial instruments v) Developing framework for monitoring and verification of projects; vi) Promoting schemes; and vii) Promoting human resource development. MNRE has undertaken a review of technical and economic feasibility of different sources as per international norms. Important and significant observations have emerged. Potential for wind power has been assessed for sites that have wind power density greater than 200 W/sqm assuming land availability in potential areas at 1% and requirement of wind farms at 12 ha /mw, now all of which may be technically feasible for grid interactive wind power. In line with the international practice for setting up grid interactive wind power systems on sites having wind power density higher than 300 W/sqm, the potential would be only 5,000 MW. Further, preliminary surveys do not at this stage suggest a sizeable grid interactive offshore wind power potential. Technically feasible and economically viable hydro-potential is generally accepted at 40% of the total estimated potential. Accordingly for a total potential of 15,000 MW, the technically feasible and economically viable small hydro power potential could be around 600 MW. With more sugar mills coming online and modernisation of existing ones, technically feasible potential is assessed at 5,000 MW, not all of which may be economically viable. Further more, several sugar companies/cooperatives are unable to develop bankable projects on account of their financial and liquidity positions, which again lowers the potential. With expansion of urban population, post census 2001, current technically feasible municipal waste to energy potential is assessed at 1,700 MW, not all of which is economically viable. However, subsidy disbursement under the municipal Energy Waste to Energy Programme has been kept in abeyance on the orders of the Supreme Court in the case of a PIL in May 2005. This stay has now been vacated for setting up five pilot projects.
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The potential based on surplus agro residues has a number of practical issues. There are several barriers in collection and transportation of such agro-residues to the generation site and biomass power station units prefer to use fuel-wood for techno economic reasons. A potential of 45,000 MWe from around 20 mha of waste lands assumed to be yielding 10 MT/ha/annum of woody biomass having 4000 Kcal/kg with system efficiency of 30% and PLF of 75% is not being presently considered by MNRE . In order to realise this potential a major inter-ministerial initiative involving, among others, environment and forest, agriculture, rural development and Panchayati Raj would be required. MNRE has undertaken a major program of preparing biomass surplus which is expected to more accurately assess state wise renewable energy potential from agro-residues. This is for the first time that MNRE has indicated these problems and has given a true perspective on potential.
Solar Mission
In June 2008, National Action Plan on Climate Change was announced, which included eight major national missions: one on solar energy being the centre piece. This mission envisages a major step up in the utilization of solar energy for power generation and other purposes.
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Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM) was launched by the Prime Minister in January 2010, with the objective to help reach grid parity by 2022 and help set up indigenous manufacturing capacity. The target is to set up 20,000 MW grid solar power (based on solar thermal power generating systems and solar photovoltaic technologies), 2,000 MW of Off-grid capacity including 20 million solar lighting systems and 20 million square meter solar thermal collector area by 2022. The Mission is being implemented in three phases. The first phase is of three years (up to March, 2013), the second till March 2017 and the third phase will continue till March, 2022. The target of phase-I is to set up 1,100 MW grid connected solar plants including 100 MW of roof top and small solar plants; and 200 MW capacity equivalent off-grid solar applications and 7 million square meter solar thermal collector area. A new architecture has been designed for the 1,000 MW grid connected projects. These will be implemented through NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nigam (NVVN). NVVN will sell the solar power to the State utilities after bundling solar power with equivalent capacity of thermal power. CERC has announced tariff for purchase of solar power by NVVN. The tariff for the year 2010-11 for PV was Rs. 17.91 per unit and for solar thermal power Rs.15.31 per unit. In addition, project developers for 100 MW capacity of grid (below 33 KV) connected solar projects (of 100 kW to MW capacities each) have also been selected. It is expected that 150-200 MW of solar power will be installed in the country by December 2011. The guidelines for implementation were announced on 25 July 2010. They provide for deployment of both solar PV technology projects and solar thermal technology projects in a ratio of 50:50 in MW capacity terms.
It was decided that the selection of PV grid power projects be done in two batches by allocating overall capacities over two financial years in phase one, i.e. 2010 11 and 2011-12. The total capacity of solar PV projects to be selected in first batch was limited to 150 MW. The projects for remaining capacity for solar PV projects would be selected in the second batch. This was done keeping in view the declining cost trends in PV technology and in order to prevent bunching of large capacities at one time. The other objective was to avoid the difficulty that may arise in achieving financial closure by a large number of such projects as may get selected together given that this is a new area of financing to a financial institution in India. This would also facilitate incremental indigenisation. The size of PV projects in the first stage was fixed at 5 MW. The size of solar thermal projects were kept in the range of 20 MW to 100 MW totalling to 500 MW. Expression of interest was issued by NVVN in August 2010 to select 150 MW of solar PV projects and 417 MW of solar thermal projects, which yielded huge response by way of an offer of more than 5,000 MW. Since this led to a situation wherein the short listed applicants were offering to set up capacities much more than what was on offer, the short listed projects were asked in October 2010 to indicate the discount in rupee per kwh on CERC approved applicable tariff. This process was also discussed in consultation meetings and the pre-bid meetings. Projects offering the maximum discount on the CERC applicable tariff were selected. A total of 704 MW capacity grid connected solar power projects were selected by December, 2010, which comprise of: i) 16 projects of 84 MW capacity selected in July, 2010 by NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nigam (NVVN) under the migration scheme at CERC tariff. ii) 37 projects of 620 MW capacity (7 projects of 470 MW of solar thermal and 30 projects of 150 MW of PV) projects selected by NVVN through discounts on CERC tariff. iii) The eligible bids to set up PV plants have offered weighted average discount of Rs. 6.06 per unit on CERC tariff of Rs. 17.91 per unit; and for solar thermal plants the average discount is Rs.3.95 per unit on CERC tariff of Rs.15.31 per unit. Under this component of the mission, MNRE will provide a generation based incentive of Rs.12.41 per kwh to the state utilities that will directly purchase solar power from the project developers. The quantum of generation based incentives to the utilities is kept fixed as a difference of CERC tariff for 2010-11 (Rs.17.91/kwh) and a reference of Rs.5.5/kwh.
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A state-wise list of solar power projects selected under the mission is given at Table-2. Also a list of SPV system installations during the year is given in Table-3. Table-4 gives state-wise cumulative installation of SPV systems.
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100
2012
Concentrating solar-thermal technologies have formed good application for steam generation and air conditioning also at places where vapour absorption machines are in operation using conventional fuel. A total of 13 solar steam generating systems and 21 indoor community cookers covering around 4000 sqm of the collector area have been were sanctioned. Under the Development of Solar Cities Programme the Ministry has accorded in-principle approval to develop 48 cities in 23 States as Solar Cities. Master Plans are under preparation for development of 31 cities as Solar Cities. Draft Master Plans have been developed for 11 cities. Two cities, Nagpur and Chandigarh are being developed as Model Solar Cities. The proposal of Gandhinagar for developing as a model solar city has also been received. The development of Solar Cities Programme has been modified in January 2011, so as to provide financial support; i) for the establishment of ten cities to be developed as 'Pilot Solar Cities'; ii) for developing four cities as 'Model Solar Cities', apart from 60 Solar Cities, 50 new Small townships/campuses duly notified/permitted by the concerned Authorities being developed by the promoters/builders, SEZs/industrial towns, Institutional campus etc will be developed as Solar Township/Solar Campus.
Scheme on Energy Efficient Solar/Green Buildings is being implemented with the objective to promote the widespread construction of energy efficient solar/green buildings in the country through a combination of financial and promotional incentives. The Ministry has created an independent registered society, 'Association for Development and Research in Sustainable Habitats' (ADaRSH) for promotion and implementation of GRIHA rating system in the country. A decision has been taken that all new buildings of Central Government/Public Sector Undertakings would at least meet the requirements of GRIHA-3 Star rating, though every effort would be made by them to achieve higher star rating, wherever site conditions permit to do so. Ideally all government organisations would aim to reaching GRIHA 4-star rating. So far 117 projects have already been registered for GRIHA rating certification with 4.99 million square meter built up area; out of which 81 projects are from various Government Departments, Public Sector Undertakings (PSU), Educational Institutions, including, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, with a total 3.22 million square meter built up area have been registered for the construction based on green rating norms for acquiring GRIHA Ratings. A GRIHA manual containing a set of 5 volumes was released in January 2011. Guidelines for Green Campuses are under preparation.
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Green Rating for Integrated Habitat Assessment - a building rating system for promotion of energy efficient green buildings in the country - is an integrated framework for ensuring design, construction and in turn rating of ECBC compliant green buildings. They have not only incorporated ECBC as a mandatory provision but also promote integration of passive, low energy strategies into building design, thus making energy efficient buildings more cost effective. The GRIHA rating system contains 34 evaluation criteria with 100 points. These have been categorised into: (i) site planning including conservation and efficient utilisation of resources, health and wellbeing during building planning and construction stage; (ii) water conservation; (iii) energy efficiency including energy embodied in construction and renewable energy; (iv) waste management including waste minimisation, segregation, storage, disposal and recovery of energy from waste; (v) environment for good health and wellbeing. Additional criteria for innovative development such as, alternative transportation, environmental education, enhanced accessibility for physically/mentally challenged are also awarded points. A wind power capacity of 1,377 MW has been added during the year up to January 31, 2011, taking the cumulative installed capacity to 13,184 MW. Wind electric generators of unit sizes between 225 KW and 2.10 MW have been deployed across the country. Wind turbines are being promoted in 29 models by 18 manufacturers in the country, mainly through joint-ventures or under licensed production agreement. The current annual production capacity of domestic wind turbine industry is in the range of 3,000-4,000 MW. Table-5 gives the status of wind power in India.
Table 5: Status of Wind Power in India 2010 -11 Sl. No. States Andhra Pradesh Gujarat Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Rajasthan Tamil Nadu Others Total Potential 8968 10645 11531 1171 1019 4584 4858 5530 255 48561 Capacity installed during 2010-11 Cummulative capacity (upto ( Upto Jan.2011 ) Jan 2011) 44.80 172.18 121.30 0 7.80 125.05 292.70 613.00 0 1376.83 180.90 2035.81 1594.10 27.75 237.20 2202.80 1381.00 5519.72 4.30 13183.58
Wind Power
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1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9
A package of incentives which includes fiscal concessions such as 80% accelerated depreciation, concessional customs duty for specific critical components, excise duty exemption, income tax exemption on profits for power generation are available for wind power projects. A number of states have also announced renewable purchase obligations, which catalyses the growth in the wind power generation.
Small wind energy systems, mainly water pumping wind mills, aero-generators and wind solar hybrid systems have been found to be useful for harnessing wind and solar energy in un-electrified areas, or areas having intermittent electric supply. These systems can be set up in rural, semi-urban/urban areas, having annual average wind speed of about 15 kmph or above, at 20 meter height. The promotional scheme has been modified during the year to bring it in market mode with greater involvement of manufacturers and beneficiaries. During the year, 6 manufacturing companies with a total 11 models of small aero generators were approved. The implementation of the programme during the year has resulted in sanctioning a capacity of around 600 Kw taking up a cumulative total of 1,351 Kw. Also an aggregate capacity of 1,072 Kw of the aero generations/hybrid systems have been installed under the programme. Biomass resource potential is assessed at 500 MT/year and about 30% of the same or about 150 MT/annum is estimated surplus biomass availability creating a potential of about 18,000 MW electricity generation. 143.50 MW capacity biomass projects were installed during the year taking the cumulative biomass capacity to 997 MW from 130 projects. Improved high output technologies have been used in these projects. 14 biomass power projects of aggregate capacity of 142 MW with project configuration of 67 ata and 485 degree C have been commissioned during the year. Biomass power projects aggregating to 50 MW capacity are in different stages of implementation. Biomass gasifier programme promotes electricity generation using locally available biomass resource in rural areas where surplus biomass such as wood chips, rice husk, arhar stalks, cotton stalks and other agro residues are available. Also small biomass gasifier and combustion based power plants connected at the tail-end of the grid for captive power and thermal applications in rice mills and other industries is promoted. Biomass gasifier programme is promoted in three different modes: i) biomass gasifier based distributed/off-grid power programme for rural areas, which may preferably be set up following a cluster approach; ii) biomass gasifier based power generation in rice mills and other industries for meeting their captive electrical and thermal needs and surplus power being fed into the grid; and iii) biomass gasifier based grid connected power projects with 100% producer gas engine or biomass based grid connected boiler turbine generator projects with a maximum installed capacity of each of such project to be 2 MW. 42 rice husk gasifier projects of 32 KW each have been sanctioned and 25 such projects have been installed and providing unmet demand of electricity for 6 hours in the night to about each of 70 villages. 40 rice husk gasifier systems retrofitted with existing diesel generators are under installation. Seven biomass gasifiers and combustion based power projects up to 2 MW capacity with cumulative capacity of 13.20 MW, connected to the tail-end of the grid have been approved for installation. Also 500 KW gasifier projects are under installation.
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Bagasse co-generation programme added power generation capacity of 257 MW during the year. Thus, the total capacity in the country has increased to 1,603 MW from 152 projects. Special focus has been on cooperative sector sugar mills through higher incentive for accelerated development of bagasse cogeneration projects. Nine cooperative sugar mills in Maharashtra adopted the latest technologies with configuration varying from 67 ata to 110 ata adding 116 MW during the year. MNRE adopted an innovative approach to continue the existing scheme with two modifications related to (a) cogeneration projects through BOOT model in cooperative sugar mills and (b) boiler upgradation of cogeneration projects in cooperative sugar mills. Biomass cogeneration (non-baggase) in industry is another route being promoted to exploit the potential of thermal energy and power for captive use in industry. A total of 20 projects with a capacity of over 60 MW have been completed up to January 31, 2011. In addition 8 projects with an aggregate capacity of 30 MW are under implementation. Incineration and bio-methanation are the most common technologies for conversion of urban and industrial waste into energy. Pyrolysis and gasification are also emerging as desirable technological options. The recent potential for generation of over 3,600 MW of power from urban and industrial wastes in the country has been identified. During the year, MNRE has promoted three different schemes aimed at a variety of wastes, such as municipal solid wastes, vegetable markets, and slaughter house waste, cattle dung along with agricultural residue and agro-industrial wastes. The first scheme is to set up 5 pilot projects on energy recovery from municipal solid waste. The second scheme refers to power generation from biogas generated at sewerage treatment plant. The third scheme refers to power generation from other urban wastes and mix of urban and agricultural/agro-industrial wastes. A total of 11 projects with an aggregate capacity for 28.77 MW based on industrial wastes have been completed up to January 31, 2011. Ten projects with an aggregate capacity of 25 MW are under installation. Small hydro power projects up to 25 MW capacity is also the responsibility of MNRE. Though the potential for power generation from such plants is projected at 15,384 MW at 5,718 potential sites, but technically and economically viable capacity addition is projected to be 6,000 MW only. This programme is essentially private investment driven. A project has been sanctioned to set up a small hydro turbine R&D laboratory with an objective of creating international level facilities for testing, design and R&D in the area of hydraulic turbines, hydro mechanical equipments, control and instrumentation of small hydro electric power plants. The on-line monitoring system that adds to longevity of uninterrupted power supply from large hydro power systems worldwide are also being considered for adoption.
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National Biogas and Manure Management Programme National Biogas and Manure Management Programme (NBMMP) caters to setting up of family type biogas plants for meeting cooking energy needs in rural areas along with making available enriched biofertilizer. 73,281 biogas plants were installed during the year up to 31 January 2011. Since the launch of the programme in 1981-82 a total of 4.31 million family type biogas plants have been installed by 31 January 2011. Installation of 1,19,914 family type biogas plants during the year 2009-10 is estimated to bring in a saving of about 3.05 lakh tonnes of fuel-wood equivalent and production of about 115.7 lakh kg of urea equivalent or 21.47 lakh tonnes of organic manure per year. In addition the rural families benefit in terms of reducing drudgery of women involved in collecting fuel-wood from long distances and minimising health hazards during cooking in smoky kitchens. Also construction of these biogas plants in 2009-10 would have generated about 3.35 million person-days of employment for skilled and unskilled workers in rural areas during the year. Biogas based Distributed/Grid Power Generation Programme MNRE has also started a scheme Biogas based Distributed/Grid Power Generation Programme (BGPG) from 2005-06 with a view to promote biogas power generation, especially in the small capacity range (from 3 KW to 250 KW), based on the availability of large quantity of animal waste and wastes from forestry/rural based industries (agro/food processing), kitchen wastes etc. MNRE has also undertaken the new initiatives of bottling of biogas to demonstrate an integrated technology package in entrepreneurial mode on medium size mixed feed Biogas Fertilizer Plants (BGFP) for generation, purification/enrichment, bottling and piped distribution of biogas. Installation of such plants aims at meeting stationary and motive power, cooling, refrigeration and electricity needs in addition to cooking and heating requirements. In one of the 16 projects sanctioned, it is observed that the biogas generated from the plant has been purified and the purity of 98.4% methane has been achieved. The capacity of BGFP could be 1,100 cum to 20,000 cum biogas per day, and above thereof, depending on the availability of suitable biomass feed materials and cattle dung. Remote Village Electrification Programme The remote village electrification programme is being implemented by use of renewable energy technologies for electrification of remote villages including small hydro, biomass and solar energy. Solar PV lighting remains the most preferred option. The decision to use a particular technology is taken by the state implementing agency after examination of the technical feasibility and resource availability. th A target of coverage of 10, 000 villages and hamlets has been set for the 11 Plan (2007-2012) of which 4,589 villages and hamlets have been taken up by 15 January, 2011.
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An evaluation study in three states, namely, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa and Chattisgarh, to assess the implementation of the rural village electrification programme found that the provision of lighting in the remote villages has improved the life of the villagers. Around 5,200 households in 186 villages for the three states were covered in the survey. The functionality of the solar lighting systems was found to be between 68% and 86%. Village Energy Security Test Projects Village Energy Security Test projects were taken up by the Gram Panchayats since the 10th Plan. 61 test projects have so far been commissioned, of which 6 test projects have been commissioned and 8 test projects have been completed during the year 2010-11 till 31 January 2011. During the mid-term appraisal of the 11th Plan in September 2009, it was decided to concentrate on consolidating the projects already taken up for implementation and take up new villages only under the Rural Village Electrification th Programme. During the remaining period of the 11 Plan, consolidation of Village Energy Security Programme will be undertaken. As such no new test projects will be sanctioned. Special Area Demonstration Project Scheme The Special Area Demonstration Project Scheme of the Ministry has been introduced with the objective of demonstrating application of various renewable energy systems in a project mode at places of national and international importance including world heritage sites, heritage monuments, religious locations and places of public interest to create greater awareness of renewable energy sources and to supplement the energy requirements at such locations. 41 proposals for world heritage sites have been supported.
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Tidal Energy A programme on tidal energy has been implemented to develop and harness about 8,000 to 9,000 MW of estimated tidal energy potential for power generation. First tidal project of 3.75 MW capacity is being set up at Durgaduani Creek in Sundarbans. Electric Vehicles A broad based programme on research, development and demonstration of battery operated vehicles/hybrid electric vehicles/plug hybrid electric vehicles is being implemented to get a feed back on the performance of battery operated vehicles under operating conditions.
In January 2010, the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission issued a notification on 'Terms and Conditions for recognition and issuance of Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) for Renewable Energy Generation'. REC seeks to address the mismatch between availability of renewable sources and the requirements of the obligated entities to meet their renewable purchase obligation. It allows certificate holders to sell renewable energy to states deficient on this front, individual or other entities is expected to stimulate competition and create a market for power across states. The National Load Despatch Centre has been appointed as Central Agency for implementation of RECs. Renewable Energy Certificate Mechanism has been launched on 18 November 2010. Based on this states like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Kerala have started accepting application for accreditation of renewable energy projects. 646 REC generators have already signed up under the scheme. The status of RECs is given in the graph. As of now, all the RECs are under non solar category. There are 183 accredited generators with a total capcity of about 1100 MW. REC SUMMARY
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0
March-11
April-11
May-11
June-11
July-11
Opening Balance
REC Issued
REC Redeemed
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Whereas the Solar Mission itself will create a capacity addition of 22,000 MW by the year 2021-22, wind and biomass can substantially contribute to power generation capacity from renewables. The current estimates indicate that about 60,000 to 70,000 MW of installed capacity will be added by wind power and biomass. Thus, about 90,000 MW of power from renewable sources can be expected to be installed by 2021-22. At that stage, the total installed capacity is expected to be around 400,000 MW.
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Thus 20 to 25% of power generation capacity could be contributed by the renewable sources of energy, which in terms of energy supply will be 11 to 12% of the total energy supply from different power generation sources. However, it will be necessary to overcome some of the challenges. Strategy for implementation of programme under Solar Mission has been well defined but its project implementation still needs smoothening. The off-grid gasification project, with dedicated fuelwood plantation has been a successful attempt that has helped the local people in Sunderbans. However, as the fuelwood plantations grew in girth to a dimension bigger than what is specified by the forest department, the users were stopped by the forest department from felling such plantation as per the Act. A number of similar other examples of how the successful projects have been stopped for legal or administrative reasons can be identified. All these need careful handling. In an overall consideration following barriers and the policies targeted to deal with them will be necessary for successful implementation : There are three challenges that have been identified and need to be overcome. These are the following: i) ii) iii) Barriers in establishment and operation of systems Barriers in spread of renewable energy based power generation technologies Barriers to development of commercially viable small and medium enterprises
Challenges
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Appropriate policy framework is necessary to address various constraints and thereby create opportunities for business to fulfil the objectives of power generation from renewable sources. Targeted policies are necessary to address the following issues: Promoting innovative delivery models Supporting structured training programmes to create a pool of skilled personnel Facilitating innovative designs and loan schemes to reduce cost Creating effective monitoring and evaluation frameworks Reviewing R&D policies and projects for cost reduction and performance under field conditions Creating fiscal and policy incentives to enhance public and private sector participation, and their mainstreaming with the global markets. vii) Creating decentralised manufacturing and service facility. i) ii) iii) iv) v) vi)
The government has taken serious note of mainstreaming renewables in the energy supply for the country. This is a major move 'from considering new renewables as marginal sources of energy to mainstreaming them'. The Integrated Energy Policy Report, released in August 2006 (that laid the foundation for Integrated Energy Policy announcement in December 2008) triggered mainstreaming of renewables. A consolidation of government's policy framework and actions for continuous upward movement for renewables can result in verifiable targeted achievement of 90,000 to 100,000 MW of power from new renewables (not including hydro projects of capacity more than 25 MW) by the year 2021-22.
Conclusion
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Introduction
Achieving an efficient configuration of the various forms of energy requires consistency in the policies governing each sector and consistency in the pricing of different types of energy. There is also a need for clarity in the direction in which we wish to move in aspects like energy security, research and development, addressing environmental concerns, energy conservation, etc. To address these issues in an integrated manner, the Prime Minister had directed that the Planning Commission should constitute an Expert Committee to undertake a comprehensive review and to make recommendations for policy on this basis. The Expert Committee was constituted under the chairmanship of Dr. Kirit S. Parikh, Member, Planning Commission. The report of the committee has been adopted by the Government on December 26, 2008. The report on Integrated Energy Policy covers all sources of energy and addresses all aspects of energy use and supply including energy security, access and availability, affordability and pricing, as well as efficiency and environmental concerns. It provides a broad overreaching framework for guiding the policies governing the production and use of different forms of energy from various sources. It also makes specific recommendations on a very large range of issues. The report shall be a valuable input into policy making. It defines the broad vision behind the energy policy as
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To reliably meet the demand for energy services of all sectors including the lifeline energy needs of vulnerable households, in all parts of the country, with safe and convenient energy at the least cost in a technically efficient, economically viable and sustainable manner. The report emphasizes that meeting this vision would require that India pursues all available fuel options and forms of energy, conventional and non-conventional, as well as new and emerging technologies and energy sources. The approach of the policy has therefore to be directed to realising a cost-effective energy system. For this the following are proposed: (I) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) (vii) (viii) Wherever possible, energy markets should be competitive. However, competition alone has been shown to have its limitations in a number of areas of the energy sector and independent regulation becomes even more critical in such instances. Pricing and resource allocations that are determined by market forces under an effective and credible regulatory oversight Subsidies are transparent and targeted Efficiencies are improved across the energy chain. Policies should reflect externalities of energy consumption. Policies should rely on incentives/ disincentives to regulate market and consumer behaviour. Policies should be implementable. Management reforms should create accountability and incentives for efficiency.
The Policy has presented demand projections leading up to 2031-32. For this purpose historical data and the demand scenarios of various organisations have been reviewed. The correlation with GDP of the country has also been established and based on this correlation; projections have been calculated for each energy source for the above period. The elasticities used for scenario building are as given in table-1.
Scenarios to 2031-32
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Total Primary Commercial Energy Supply (TPCES) Falling Constant elasticities elasticities 0.75 0.8 0.8 0.70 0.8 0.67
Electricity Falling elasticities 0.95 0.85 0.78 Constant elasticities 0.95 0.95 0.95
Two elasticities have been considered, one taking constant elasticities, that is presuming that the demand for energy remains constant over this period and the second taking falling elasticities, that is, expecting the demand for energy to fall as percentage of GDP over this period. Based on these elasticities, demand scenario for TPCES has been worked out as given in table-2.
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(Million Tons of Oil Equivalent) TPCES (Mtoe) TPCES (Mtoe) Constant Elasticities 8% 394 537 732 998 1361 1856 9% 403 570 807 1142 1617 2289
The demand scenario for electricity has been worked out as given in table-3.
Demand scenario for fuel choices for electricity generation, as given in table-4, has been worked out by the committee based on certain assumptions. The projections assume exploitation of full hydro potential of 1,50,000 MW in the country, a capacity addition of 63,000 MW from nuclear power sources and a 14,000 MW capacity from wind farms by 2031- 32. However, it states that these scenario assumptions in respect of hydro and nuclear may not be fully realised and are made in order to characterise the boundaries of alternative choices. Here generation from coal-based stations also includes electricity generation from lignite. The scenario also forces gas usage for power generation with gas-based electricity share rising from about 10% to 16% between 2003-04 and 2031-32. As a result of these assumptions, the share of coal-based electricity drops from 72% to 61%. The demand for oil in power sector covers consumption of petroleum products in diesel based plants as well as secondary oil consumption in coal based plants.
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It is emphasized in the report that the table only represents one possible scenario and it should not, in any way, be considered as the preferred scenario. Also to the extent that gas, hydro or nuclear capacity cannot be realised as projected in the scenario, coal-based generation will need to fill the gap. In reality, the choice between coal and gas will be guided by economic and commercial considerations including any policy prescriptions for pricing-in certain environmental externalities. The level of gas use projected in the scenario is also based on somewhat optimistic assumptions of gas availability and of its ability to compete with coal on price. It is expressed that should these assumptions not hold true, coal dependence will increase.
Hydro (BkWh)
Nuclear (BkWh)
Wind (BkWh)
9% 592 724 1091 1577 2280 3201 4493 74 87 139 204 270 335 401 17 39 64 118 172 274 375 3 8 11 14 18 21 24
498 318 590 337 877 463 1241 603 1820 832 2571 1109 3693 1475
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INDIA ENERGY BOOK
The report discusses in detail projections for coal, oil and natural gas for non-power use. Based on these discussions, the commercial fuel requirement for non-power use are summarised as given in table-5.
Table 5: Commercial Fuel Requirement for Non-Power Use - One Possible Scenario
Year GDP Growth Rate 2003-04 2006-07 2011-12 2016-17 2021-22 2026-27 2031-32 Non-Power Coal Mt 8% 9% 91 91 123 123 170 164 237 221 334 299 475 408 684 562 Non-Power Oil Mt 8% 9% 113 113 142 126 178 158 231 205 299 266 395 351 528 469 Non-Power Natural Gas BCM 8% 9% 20 20 22 20 32 30 45 38 65 56 93 73 133 100
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Total commercial primary energy requirements based on the scenario drawn for power in Table-4 and the projections made for non-power oil, coal and gas in table-5 are summarised in Table-6 using the common unit of million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe). Report emphasizes that this is merely one scenario that forces Hydro (1,50,000 MW), forces Nuclear (63,000 MW) and forces share of gas-based power generation (16%). Other scenarios based on DSM, efficiency improvements, renewables etc. will bring down the commercial energy requirements further and change the fuel mix.
(Mtoe) TPCES 9% 546 739 1011 1378 1858 6.4 1266 306 4.1
Finally, to explore the consequences of different alternatives and their quantitative significance a number of scenarios have been developed using a multi-sectoral, multi period optimising linear programming model. These scenarios present commercial energy supply and the commercial energy mix under a number of scenarios reflecting specific policy initiatives. They are designed to assess the importance of critical policy options for meeting energy requirements. These scenarios are designed to map out extreme points of feasible options and none of them should be looked upon as a preferred scenario. The commercial energy supply under these scenarios varies from a low of 1351 Mtoe to a high of 1702 Mtoe. The linear programming model used for the scenarios obtains the least-cost solution subject to constraints over ten 5-year periods from 2000 till 2050. It also has sub-periods characterizing peak, intermediate and base load during summer and winter seasons. Power demand is characterised for three regions: (a) near coal mines, (b) distant coastal regions and (c) the rest. Options at distant coastal regions include transmission from pithead plants and load centre based generation using domestic coal or imported coal. The amount of pithead generation is restricted due to environmental
Integrated Scenario
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reasons. In the case of hydro, India's full potential of 1,50,000 MW is taken as exploited by 2031-32. Nuclear capacity of 63,000 MW is assumed to be realised by 2031-32. As regards gas, the model is forced to have a 16% share for gas-based power generation by 2031-32. A model scenario critically depends on the set of assumptions, parameters and constraints, and in particular on the relative costs and prices of the alternatives available, the discount rate and the projected requirements. Requirements have been specified in terms of billion units of electricity, billion tonne-kilometre of freight traffic, and billion passenger-kilometer of passenger traffic. The freight and passenger traffic projections have been made using elasticities with respect to GDP of 1.0 and 0.8, estimated using time series data from 1930 to 2000. The optimality of the solution is contingent on the various inputs/assumptions detailed herein. The importance of the model is that each solution provides a consistent scenario. It should be noted that the model does not suggest preferred scenarios. They are in fact extreme options to define the feasible space for alternate policy choices. Thus when 1,50,000 MW of hydel by 2031-32 is estimated, it does not mean that given the various social, political and environmental constraints we will in fact fully develop our hydel resources to reach this estimate. The scenario does, however, show what the implications are for energy supply if we were able to develop the full hydro potential. Table-7 summarises the results of the scenarios in 2031-32. Figure shows this graphically. Table-8 presents the results in %.
Main Recommendations
Based on the comparison of energy requirements and our resource base, the report concludes that our hydrocarbon resources would be grossly inadequate to meet our needs. From a longer term perspective, a number of actions have been recommended:
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Relentlessly pursue energy efficiency and energy conservation as the most important virtual source of domestic energy. Institute policies that maximise domestic coal production. Create coastal infrastructure for import and use of coal. Develop coal transportation infrastructure including alternatives such as coastal and river movement. Develop fully the nuclear and hydro option. Mount R&D efforts to develop commercially viable in-situ coal gasification technology. Redouble exploration efforts for oil, gas and coal. Raise the level of diplomacy to access hydrocarbon reserves overseas and gas pipelines to India. Undertake a technology mission on carbon sequestration. Undertake pilot projects to assess the economics and social benefits of biomass plantations and bio-fuels
Undertake a solar technology mission to make solar power using photo-voltaics or solar thermal economically attractive. Undertake R&D for exploiting gas-hydrates. Undertake R&D for fusion to keep open that option for unlimited power. Assess off-shore wind power potential. Some of the measures put forth by the energy policy to achieve the objectives are brought out below. These are a representative list, for complete details, please refer the report. 1.0 Energy security 1. Explore and maximize domestic sources 2. Acquire oil equity abroad 3. Build adequate strategic reserves 2.0 Enabling an Environment for Competitive Efficiency Currently the Energy Sector is dominated by large Public Sector Companies with some sub-sectors having monopoly. Under this scenario, the policy recommendations are1. Restructure markets so as to promote competition. Allow multiple players in each element of the energy value chain to compete under transparent & level playing field 2. The regulatory responsibility/functions of the State should be separated from the Ministries that control the Public Sector Units that dominate the energy sector 3. Till competitive markets emerge, independent regulators should fix prices or price caps to mimic competitive markets 4. A common energy regulator at the level of the Central Government could provide a positive impetus to some of the policy initiatives foreseen under the Integrated Energy Policy 5. All monopoly carriers must be common carriers with no interest in content 3.0 Reduction of Demand-Supply Gap and Reduction of GHG 1. Promote Energy efficiency in all sectors 2. Emphasis on mass transport / rail freight 3. Active policy on renewable energy including bio-fuels and fuel plantations 4. Promote Distributed Generation & Clean fuel technologies for rural population 5. Accelerated development of nuclear and hydro-electricity 6. Technology missions for clean coal technologies 7. Focused R&D on climate friendly technologies
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3. Environment subsidy to renewables should be financed by a cess on non renewables and fuels causing environment damage 4. Ensure that renewables are given a tariff at least equal to avoided cost of generation 5. Selective price subsidy may continue to renewables promoting employment and livelihood to poor 6. Finance a large scale socio-economic experiment to operate community sized bio-gas plants as a commercial enterprise. 7. Coordination between MoP and MNRE programmes must be ensured 5.0 Reforms and Restructuring: 1. Policy recommends providing autonomy to PSUs for commercial decisions 2. It also recommends for specific policies for promotion of renewables 5.1 Petroleum Entry barriers should be removed to foster competition 5.2 Coal 1. Private participation in mining should be allowed 2. Domestic coal production should be stepped up by allotting coal blocks to central and state public sector units and for captive mines to notified end users 3. Coal producers must enter into fuel supply agreements with power plants 4. Restructure CIL in separate competing entities & CIL should be left with responsibility of reviving loss making collieries 5.3 Power Sector 1. Power Sector Reforms must focus on control over aggregate technical and commercial losses of state power utilities. 2. Central assistance to states should be linked to loss reduction and improved viability 3. Full energy audit for each distribution transformer is essential to reform and reduction in AT&C losses. 4. Incentives to staff for reduction in AT&C losses & also based on collections 5. The Committee also recommends that a liberal captive and group captive regime be foreseen under the Electricity Act 2003 be realised on the ground. 6. Separate the cost of the pure wires business (carriage) from the energy business (content) in both transmission & distribution.
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7. The Government Policy should seek to ensure that all generation & transmission projects started in the 11th Plan & beyond should be competitively built on the basis of tariff based bidding under a prescribed price cap. 8. Standardise the unit size and invite global tenders for 20 to 30 units to get substantial bulk discount. New power plants should have efficiency of not less than 38% 9. Distribution should be bid out on the basis of a distribution margin or paid for by a regulated distribution charge determined on a cost plus basis including a profit mark up 5.4 Energy Efficiency: 1. The Petroleum Conservation Research Association (PCRA) should be merged with Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) and should establish end use efficiency standards for energy intensive industry. 2. Promote urban mass transport, freight movement by railways, and energy efficient vehicles. 3. Appropriate incentives to the firm which first commercialises equipment that exceeds energy efficiency target. 4. Promote minimum life cycle cost purchases instead of minimum initial cost procurement by government and public sector. 5. Require industry with a turnover in excess of say Rs. 50 crores to employ at least one certified internal energy auditor reporting directly to the board/owner like the current internal auditor. For smaller industries achieve the same by clubbing a group of them together or requiring each industrial estate to provide such services collectively for a fee. 6. Annual audits must include energy audits for all specified energy intensive industries and industries with a turnover exceeding say Rs.100 crores. 6.0 New Technologies 1. Energy coordination committee may act as a nodal agency for development of new technologies 2. Lead should be taken in CBM, in-situ gasification of coal, carbon capture and IGCC 3. Fast breeder reactor programme should be reinforced 7.0 Research & Development 1. A National Energy Fund (NEF) should be set up by levying a cess of 0.1% of the turnover of all companies engaged in the field of primary/secondary energy production. In order to encourage the firms to do their own R&D a rebate of up to 80% of this cess may be given to firms for R&D carried out in-house. The R&D priorities have to be based on a strategic vision which is frequently updated. The NEF should periodically commission and fund such studies. 2. The NEF could provide R&D funding in support of applications, innovation of new ideas, fundamental research etc. to researchers in different institution, universities, organisations and even individuals working independently.
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Table 7: Scenario summaries for 8% GDP Growth Fuel Mix in Year 2031-32 (in Mtoe)
Scenario No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Scenario Description Coal Dominant Case Forced Hydro Forced Nuclear Forced Nuclear+Hydro Forced Nuclear+Hydro+GAS Forced Nuclear+Hydro+GAS+DSM Forced Nuclear+Hydro+GAS+ Coal eff Forced Nuclear+Hydro+GAS +DSM+coal eff Forced Nuclear+Hydro+GAS+DSM +coal eff+Rail share up Forced Nuclear+Hydro+GAS +coal eff+Rail share up +Transport eff Scenario 10+Forced Renewable Crude Oil 486 485 486 485 486 486 485 485 447 NonNatural Coal Hydro Nuclear Renewables commerical Gas 104 105 104 105 197 174 197 171 171 1022 953 998 929 835 715 818 698 701 13 35 13 35 35 35 35 35 35 76 76 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 Total 1887 1840 1885 1839 1837 1695 1813 1673 1639 Total without Noncommercial 1072 1655 1700 1654 1652 1510 1628 1488 1454
10 11
361 350
171 150
707 632
35 35
98 98
2 87
185 185
1558 1536
1373 1351
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Natural Gas
121
Table 8: Scenario summaries for 8% GDP Growth Fuel Mix in Year 2031-32 (in %)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
10
11
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Some key findings that have been reported in the report are (under reference case) India and China: The Indian and Chinese economies were least affected by the worldwide recession and will continue to lead world economic growth and energy demand growth in the reference case. In 2008, China and India combined accounted for 21 percent of total world energy consumption. With strong economic growth in both countries over the projection period, their combined energy use will more than double by 2035, when they will be accounting for 31 percent of world energy use. Renewable energy is projected to be the fastest growing source of primary energy over the next 25 years, but fossil fuels remain the dominant source of energy. Renewable energy consumption is expected to grow by 2.8 percent per year and the renewable share of total energy use will increase from 10 percent in 2008 to 15 percent in 2035; however, fossil fuels will still account for 78 percent of world energy use. The report observes that the projections under reference case reflect current laws and policies but renewable energy deployment is significantly affected by policy changes. Natural gas has the fastest growth rate among the fossil fuels over the 2008 to 2035 projection period. World natural gas consumption is expected to increase at 1.6 percent per year, from 111 trillion cubic feet in 2008 to 169 trillion cubic feet in 2035. Unconventional natural gas (tight gas, shale gas, and coal bed methane) supplies are expected to increase substantially especially from the United States, Canada and China. World oil prices are expected to remain high, but oil consumption will continue to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies will be used to meet rising demand. The price of light sweet crude oil (in real 2009 dollars) is expected to remain high, reaching $125 per barrel in 2035. Total world petroleum and other liquids fuel use will increase by 26.9 million barrels per day between 2008 and 2035, but the growth in conventional crude oil production will be less than half this amount at 11.5 million barrels per day, while production of natural gas plant liquids will increase by 5.1 million barrels per day, World production of unconventional resources (including bio-fuels, oil sands, extra-heavy oil, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids), which totalled 3.9 million barrels per day in 2008, will increase to 13.1 million barrels per day in 2035. Total world energy consumption will rise by an average annual 1.6 percent in from 2008 to 2035. Strong economic growth among the non-OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) nations will drive the increase. Non-OECD energy use will increase by 2.3 percent per year; in the OECD countries energy use will grow by only 0.6 percent per year.
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Petroleum and other liquid fuels will remain the largest energy source worldwide through 2035, though projected higher oil prices will erode their share of total energy use from 34 percent in 2008 to 29 percent in 2035.
671
721
770
Petroleum prices are very sensitive to 200 both supply and demand conditions. Higher economic growth in developing countries coupled with reduced supply 0 1990 2000 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 from key exporting countries will result in a High Oil Price case in which real oil prices may exceed $169 per barrel by 2020 and approach $200 per barrel by 2035. Conversely, lower economic growth in developing countries coupled with increased supplies from key exporting countries will result in a Low Oil Price case in which real oil prices may fall to about $55 per barrel in 2015 and then gradually decline to $50 per barrel after 2030 where they remain through 2035. World coal consumption will increase from 139 quadrillion Btu (3502 Mtoe) in 2008 to 209 quadrillion Btu (5267 Mtoe) in 2035, at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent. In the absence of policies or legislation that would limit the growth of coal use, China and, to a lesser extent, India and the other nations of non-OECD Asia will consume coal in place of more expensive fuels. China alone may account for 76 percent of the projected net increase in world coal use, and India and the rest of non-OECD Asia may account for another 19 percent of the increase.
150 History 2008 Projections
100 Non-OECD Asia 50 OECD 0 1990 Rest of World 2000 2008 2015 2025 2035
2012
125
Electricity is the world's fastest-growing form of end-use energy consumption, as it has been for the past several decades. Net electricity generation worldwide will rise by 2.3 percent per year on average from 2008 to 2035. Renewables are the fastest growing source of new electricity generation, increasing by 3.0 percent and outpacing the average annual increases for natural gas (2.6 percent), nuclear power (2.4 percent), and coal (1.9 percent).
40
30
Coal
BKWH
20
10
2008
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Renewables Liquids
2012
Transportation sector accounted for 27 percent of total world delivered energy consumption in 2008, and transportation energy use will increase by 1.4 percent per year from 2008 to 2035. The transportation share of world total liquids consumption may increase from 54 percent in 2008 to 60 percent in 2035, accounting for 82 percent of the total increase in world liquids consumption Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions may rise from 30.2 billion metric tons in 2008 to 43.2 billion metric tons in 2035an increase of 43 percent. Much of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions is projected to occur among the developing nations of the world, especially in Asia.
126
(Millions)
Annual growth (%) 0.9 1.0 -0.4 0.0 0.8 -0.4 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.9
2006 United States 299 Canada 33 Japan 128 South Korea 48 Australia/New Zealand 25 Russia 143 China 1,314 India 1,148 Brazil 188 Total OECD 1,193 Total Non -OECD 5,385 6,579 Total World
2030
13,229 13,229 15,336 17,421 20,020 22,731 1,226 1,233 1,408 1,572 1,741 1,942 4,043 3,995 4,235 4,405 4,483 4,558 986 1,009 1,274 1,506 1,737 1,969 853 1,984 7,000 3,025 1,692 36,897 27,131 64,028 869 2,094 7,672 3,180 1,778 37,005 28,774 65,779 1,055 2,377 13,358 5,207 2,452 41,701 42,131 83,832 1,213 1,375 1,559 2,681 3,055 3,589 18,206 23,550 28,953 7,147 9,121 11,255 3,079 3,840 4,784 46,822 52,506 58,517 54,052 67,107 81,345 100,874 119,612 139,862
2012
127
2006 2007 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 19.8 19.9 19.1 17.4 16.9 16.6 16.3 16.2 18.0 18.4 18.0 15.8 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.8 9.7 9.8 9.5 8.9 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.4 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.3 11.5 12.2 12.9 14.1 17.6 18.0 18.6 17.3 17.0 16.4 16.4 16.5 11.7 11.4 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.9 14.0 4.4 4.7 5.1 6.8 7.1 8.0 8.7 9.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.4 4.0 11.4 11.4 11.1 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.5 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.1
(kgoe per 2005 dollar of GDP) Projections Annual growth (%) -2.0 -1.1 -0.4 -1.7 -1.6 -2.1 -2.6 -2.2 -1.7 -1.5 -2.2 -1.8
128
2006 2007 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 United States 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.17 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.11 Canada 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.22 Japan 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 South Korea 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.22 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.16 Australia/New Zealand 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.13 Russia 0.40 0.38 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.21 China 0.30 0.28 0.28 0.23 0.19 0.17 0.15 0.14 India 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.09 Brazil 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.11 Total OECD 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.11 Total Non -OECD 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.19 0.17 0.15 0.14 0.13 Total World 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.17 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.12
2012
2006 2007 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2
(Mtoe)
Annual growth 2035 (%) 0.5 1.0 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.6 3.0 3.2 2.8 0.6 2.3 1.6
2,562.8 2,522.5 2,570.4 2,643.5 2,721.6 2,797.2 2,877.8 360.4 360.4 367.9 395.6 413.3 443.5 473.8 579.6 564.5 559.4 584.6 597.2 597.2 599.8 247.0 252.0 279.7 292.3 312.5 330.1 350.3 166.3 171.4 186.5 196.6 204.1 214.2 224.3 748.4 771.1 783.7 788.8 814.0 849.2 894.6 1,988.3 2,172.2 3,129.8 3,543.1 4,054.7 4,483.1 4,823.3 504.0 531.7 700.6 834.1 980.3 1,116.4 1,239.8 304.9 320.0 390.6 436.0 501.5 584.6 677.9 6,201.7 6,156.4 6,310.1 6,567.1 6,799.0 7,023.2 7,262.6 6,211.8 6,564.6 8,142.1 9,044.3 10,122.8 11,158.6 12,136.3 12,413.5 12,718.4 14,452.2 15,611.4 16,921.8 18,181.8 19,399.0
2012
129
(Million Tons)
Annual growth 2035 (%) 6,311 0.3 679 0.5 1,087 -0.4 678 1.0 0.5 0.2 2.6 2.7 2.7 0.2 2.1 1.3
2012
440 449 464 466 1,668 1,618 1,663 1,648 5,817 6,257 6,801 9,386 1,281 1,367 1,462 1,802 380 397 423 528 13,606 13,742 13,472 13,031 15,152 15,786 16,718 20,426 28,758 29,529 30,190 33,457
477 492 509 528 1,607 1,603 1,659 1,747 10,128 11,492 12,626 13,441 2,056 2,398 2,728 3,036 579 644 739 874 13,252 13,549 13,882 14,323 21,958 24,383 26,758 28,897 35,210 37,932 40,640 43,220
130
(Million tons)
Annual growth (%) 0.4 0.2 -0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 2.9 3.5 1.7 0.2 1.9 1.0
2006 2007 2008 2015 United States 1,031 1,026 971 1,016 Canada 115 115 110 115 Japan 264 259 249 214 South Korea 110 110 105 115 Australia/New Zealand 55 55 55 60 Russia 139 129 139 144 China 364 374 388 603 India 134 139 149 189 Brazil 115 120 125 144 Total OECD 2,470 2,470 2,390 2,366 Total Non-OECD 1,778 1,808 1,877 2,286 Total World 4,248 4,278 4,268 4,646
2006 2007 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 United States 614 654 657 710 716 710 733 750 Canada 93 96 96 99 105 119 130 142 Japan 96 105 105 105 105 110 113 113 South Korea 31 34 37 42 45 51 54 54 Australia/New Zealand 34 34 37 37 42 51 57 62 Russia 470 473 475 458 456 458 475 492 China 57 71 76 150 192 243 289 325 India 40 42 42 93 110 127 139 144 Brazil 20 20 23 31 42 51 65 91 Total OECD 1,483 1,525 1,542 1,624 1,684 1,743 1,840 1,936 Total Non-OECD 1,466 1,514 1,590 1,862 2,091 2,343 2,595 2,841 Total World 2,946 3,039 3,133 3,484 3,775 4,087 4,437 4,774
2012
131
(Mtoe)
Annual growth (%) 0.3 -0.7 -0.8 1.0 -0.1 0.3 2.4 2.2 5.2 0.0 2.1 1.5
132
2006 2007 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 787 806 806 839 877 877 877 874 93 89 89 113 131 134 152 162 288 251 245 319 342 358 388 417 141 136 143 183 218 233 253 266 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 144 152 154 197 275 342 366 388 55 63 65 223 419 585 749 916 16 16 13 66 119 157 187 211 14 12 14 18 22 31 31 41 2,255 2,176 2,175 2,430 2,576 2,680 2,799 2,873 405 422 427 748 1,154 1,508 1,747 2,043 2,660 2,598 2,602 3,178 3,731 4,188 4,546 4,916
2012
(Mtoe)
Annual growth (%) 1.9 1.5 2.9 3.0 3.3 2.1 4.6 3.9 2.9 2.4 3.2 2.9
2006 2007 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 161 156 176 217 239 267 285 297 93 98 101 108 123 131 144 151 30 28 28 40 50 55 58 60 3 3 3 5 5 5 8 8 18 18 18 30 35 35 38 40 48 48 43 53 55 63 71 78 118 134 161 282 398 449 496 549 60 63 60 88 118 134 151 169 139 149 151 181 207 244 290 330 514 522 557 738 847 935 993 1,043 675 701 736 990 1,225 1,376 1,542 1,716 1,187 1,222 1,293 1,726 2,071 2,311 2,535 2,759
2012
133
(Mtoe)
Annual Growth (%) -0.2 3.1 2.3 6.1 3.1 2.9 6.1 4.8 2.6 3.2 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.6 5.6 2.9 5.4 5.5 3.6 3.2 2.5 4.2 2.3 3.3 3.0 3.2 -1.0 6.0 2.0 10.2 5.0 3.3 3.5 4.6 2.2 10.2 3.9 3.2
134
Electric Power
2012
Transportation
Industrial
Commercial
Residential
2025 224.3 612.4 115.9 622.4 10.1 1,585.1 103.3 252.0 35.3 546.8 2.5 940.0 1,559.9 1,481.8 1,731.2 1,035.7 488.9 6,297.5 3,122.3 98.3 0.0 32.8 0.0 3,253.3 5,009.8 2,441.9 1,882.4 2, 240.3 501.5 12,075.8 4,846.0 16,921.8 206.6 1,323.0 2,646.0 1,101.2 1,806.8 7,083.7 5,216.4 3,764.9
4,528.4 1,101.2 2,310.8
2030 221.8 625.0 113.4 693.0 10.1 1,665.7 103.3 259.6 35.3 602.3 2.5 1,005.5 1,640.5 1,610.3 1,822.0 1,161.7 539.3 6,773.8 3,29 3.6 105.8 0.0 37.8 0.0 3,439.8 5,259.2 2,603.2 1,970.6 2,497.3 551.9 12,884.8 5,297.0 18,181.8 196.6 1,486.8 2,933.3 1,194.5 1,983.2 7,794.4 5,45 8.3 4,090.0
4,906.4 1,194.5 2,535.1
2035 221.8 640.1 110.9 763.6 10.1 1,746.4 103.3 267.1 37.8 650.2 2.5 1,060.9 1,728.7 1,751.4 1,902.6 1,295.3 584.6 7,262.6 3,429.7 115.9 0.0 35.3 0.0 3,580.9 5,486.0 2,774.5 2,048.8 2,744.3 597.2 13,650.8 5,748.1 19,399.0 189.0 1,627.9 3,220.6 1,290.2 2,162.2 8,492.4 5,675.0 4,402.4
5,269.3 1,290.2 2,759.4
Annual Growth (%) - 0.4 0.8 0.0 2.3 - 0.2 1.1 - 0.4 0.9 0.7 2.3 0.1 1.5 0.8 1.7 1.6 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.4 0.9 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.4 2.3 1.8 1.4 2.0 1.6 - 0.9 2.0 1.6 2.4 3.2 2.1 1.0 1.6
1.5 2.4 2.9 1.6
(Mtoe)
Transportation
Industrial
Commercial
Residential
9,308.9 10,490.8 3,409.6 244.4 945.0 2,101.7 685.4 919.8 4,896.4 4,359.6 2,880.4
3,502.8 685.4 1,292.8
Electric Power
2012
Total
Energy Consumption
12,718.4
14,452.2
15,611.4
16,921.8
18,181.8
19,399.0
135
(Mtoe)
Annual Growth (%) -0.8 0.0 -1.4 1.0 -0.2 0.3 -0.7 0.4 -1.0 1.5 0.1 0.8 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.9 1.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.5 -0.1 1.1 1.4 0.5 1.0 0.6 -0.8 1.5 0.0
1.0 2.6 1.1 0.1 0.8 0.0 1.0 2.4 0.6
Industrial
Commercial
Residential
1,839.6 1,814.4 1,459.1 25.2 0.0 10.1 0.0 1,494.4 2,356.2 972.7 252.0 806.4 146.2 4,536.0 1,617.8 6,156.4 75.6 443.5 924.8 1,479.2 30.2 0.0 12.6 0.0 1,522.1 2,300.8 1,028.2 236.9 859.3 148.7 4,573.8 1,736.3 6,310.1 70.6 463.7 836.6
1,968.1 2,033.6 1,524.6 25.2 0.0 10.1 0.0 1,554.8 27.7 0.0 12.6 0.0
Transportation
1,559.9 1,592.6 2,371.3 1,071.0 239.4 972.7 189.0 4,843.4 1,953.0 6,799.0 65.5 529.2 884.5 2,404.1 1,093.7 241.9 1,030.7 204.1 4,974.5 2,048.8 7,023.2 63.0 597.2 897.1
2012
Natural gas Coal Electricity Renewables Delivered energy Electricity-related losses Total
136
672.8 700.6 682.9 745.9 2,767.0 2,925.7 2,409.1 2,436.8 1,547.3 1,602.7 1,086.1 1,123.9 672.8 700.6 846.7 934.9 6,567.1 6,799.0
(Mtoe)
Annual Growth (%) -0.1 1.6 0.2 3.9 1.9 0.0 2.4 1.0 4.0 2.8 1.5 2.3 1.8 3.0 2.0 2.1 2.7 1.0 -23.5 2.2 2.6 2.0 2.0 1.7 3.4 2.0 2.2 2.6 2.3 -1.0 2.5 2.5 5.9 3.6 2.8 1.9 2.2 2.1 5.9 3.2 2.3
Industrial
Commercial
Residential
2,981.2 3,633.8 3,938.8 897.1 1,212.1 1,388.5 65.5 2.5 12.6 0.0 63.0 5.0 17.6 0.0 68.0 2.5 20.2 0.0
Transportation
Liquids Natural gas Coal Electricity Renewables Total Liquids Natural gas
980.3 1,300.3 1,479.2 1,759.0 2,189.9 2,373.8 960.1 1,108.8 1,237.3 1,149.1 1,459.1 1,544.8 677.9 224.3 907.2 1,071.0 252.0 282.2
Coal Electricity Renewables Delivered energy Electricity-related losses Total Liquids Natural gas Coal Nuclear Renewables Total Liquids Natural gas Coal Nuclear Renewables Total
6,564.6 8,142.1 9,044.3 10,122.8 11,158.6 12,136.3 168.8 156.2 148.7 141.1 133.6 128.5 501.5 604.8 693.0 793.8 889.6 967.7 1,174.3 1,431.4 1,517.0 1,761.5 2,036.2 2,295.7 115.9 199.1 307.4 398.2 461.2 539.3 1,063.4 1,194.5 1,333.1 509.0 738.4 942.5 4,717.4 2,469.6 3,129.8 3,608.6 4,158.0 5,264.3 1,925.3 2,346.1 2,522.5 2,779.6 2,991.2 3,162.6 1,461.6 1,716.1 1,930.3 2,164.7 2,399.0 2,623.3 2,323.4 2,890.1 3,059.3 3,404.5 3,764.9 4,095.0 115.9 199.1 307.4 398.2 461.2 539.3 1,224.7 1,375.9 1,542.2 1,716.1 735.8 990.4 6,564.6 8,142.1 9,044.3 10,122.8 11,158.6 12,136.3
Electric Power
2012
Consumption
Total Energy
137
Projections 2025 22.7 126.0 0.0 126.0 10.1 284.8 12.6 93.2 2.5 141.1 2.5 249.5 231.8 239.4 47.9 88.2 100.8 708.1 725.8 17.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 745.9 992.9 476.3 50.4 355.3 113.4 730.8 2030 22.7 126.0 0.0 131.0 10.1 289.8 12.6 95.8 2.5 151.2 2.5 264.6 226.8 239.4 55.4 85.7 110.9 718.2 748.4 20.2 0.0 2.5 0.0 768.6 481.3 58.0 370.4 123.5 753.5 2035 22.7 123.5 0.0 138.6 10.1 294.8 12.6 98.3 2.5 161.3 2.5 279.7 224.3 239.4 65.5 83.2 115.9 728.3 778.7 20.2 0.0 2.5 0.0 801.4 483.8 68.0 385.6 128.5 773.6
Annual Growth (%) -1.2 -0.1 -1.6 0.6 -0.2 0.1 -0.7 0.7 -0.6 1.3 0.1 0.9 0.0 0.6 1.4 -0.2 2.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.0 4.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 1.3 0.7 1.9 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.3 2.0 0.5
0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 1.9 0.5
(Mtoe)
Transportation
Industrial
Commercial
Residential
1,010.5 1,038.2
2012
2,522.5 2,570.4 2,643.5 2,721.6 2,797.2 2,877.8 12.6 171.4 516.6 211.7 100.8
970.2 599.8 564.5 211.7 176.4 2,522.5
Electric Power
138
(Mtoe)
Commercial
Residential
Industrial
1,033.2 1,098.7
Transportation
1,186.9 1,234.8
2,983.7 3,160.1 1,496.9 1,660.7 4,483.1 4,823.3 2.5 58.0 2.5 60.5
1,091.2 1,297.8
2,172.2 3,129.8 3,543.1 4,054.7 2.5 7.6 723.2 2.5 35.3 955.1 2.5 45.4 2.5 52.9
Electric Power
Coal Nuclear Renewables Total Liquids Natural gas Coal Nuclear Renewables Total
1,030.7 1,242.4
1,449.0 1,597.7
2012
17.6 58.0 108.4 153.7 196.6 239.4 156.2 390.6 436.0 483.8 534.2 274.7 907.2 1,325.5 1,580.0 1,887.5 2,187.4 2,434.3 400.7 617.4 698.0 796.3 839.2 866.9 70.6 141.1 178.9 226.8 267.1 304.9 1,522.1 2,033.6 2,154.6 2,429.3 2,683.8 2,862.7 17.6 58.0 108.4 153.7 196.6 239.4 161.3 282.2 398.2 448.6 496.4 549.4 2,172.1 3,129.8 3,543.1 4,054.7 4,483.1 4,823.3
139
(Gigawatts)
Annual Growth (%) 0.7 1.3 0.3 1.5 1.0 0.8 3.1 3.2 3.2 0.9 2.5 1.7
(Billion kilowatthours)
2015 4,253 622 1,072 482 319 1,028 5,011 1,181 544 10,880 11,772 22,652 2020 4,453 695 1,117 530 345 1,080 6,041 1,444 661 11,609 13,852 25,462 Projections 2025 4,682 756 1,160 590 364 1,166 7,322 1,701 801 12,371 16,294 28,665 2030 4,930 828 1,204 651 383 1,284 8,562 1,942 969 13,157 18,786 31,943 2035 5,167 908 1,248 714 401 1,423 9,583 2,196 1,178 13,948 21,227 35,175 Annual Growth (%) 0.8 1.4 0.8 2.0 1.3 1.4 4.1 3.9 3.6 1.2 3.3 2.3
2012
Region/Country United States Canada Japan South Korea Australia/New Zealand Russia China India Brazil Total OECD Total Non-OECD Total world
History 2008 4,122 632 1,017 419 285 985 3,221 786 455 10,220 8,904 19,125
140
World Gas based generation Capacity and net electricity generation World Gas based installed generating capacity
Region/Country United States Canada Japan South Korea Australia/New Zealand Russia China India Brazil Total OECD Total Non-OECD Total world History 2008 338 16 79 24 14 97 31 19 9 690 499 1,189 2015 368 15 74 26 15 91 52 42 12 720 575 1,295 Projections 2020 2025 2030 373 14 74 28 17 87 58 52 19 744 642 1,386 395 18 76 31 20 84 64 62 23 797 722 1,519 436 20 78 33 23 91 67 65 28 876 800 1,676 2035 482 24 78 33 25 96 68 67 43 959 866 1,825
(Gigawatts)
Annual Growth (%) 1.3 1.5 0.1 1.1 2.3 -0.1 2.9 4.9 6.0 1.2 2.1 1.6
World Gas based net electricity generation Region/Country United States Canada Japan South Korea Australia/New Zealand Russia China India Brazil Total OECD Total Non-OECD Total world History 2008 882 40 273 79 48 472 31 81 28 2,310 1,848 4,158 2015 1,000 37 255 99 57 445 182 242 51 2,501 2,448 4,948
(Billion kilowatthours) Projections 2020 2025 2030 1,002 39 268 112 77 424 234 311 98 2,668 2,961 5,629 1,003 69 292 137 102 414 281 374 123 2,922 3,548 6,470 1,152 79 311 149 123 463 305 399 163 3,359 4,117 7,476 2035 1,288 108 320 153 139 504 315 410 264 3,777 4,594 8,371 Annual Growth (%) 1.4 3.8 0.6 2.5 4.0 0.2 9.0 6.2 8.7 1.8 3.4 2.6
2012
141
(Gigawatts)
Annual Growth (%) 0.2 -0.8 -0.7 1.2 -0.7 0.1 2.4 2.0 2.8 0.0 2.1 1.3
(Billion Kilowatthours)
2015 Projections 2020 2025 2030 1,907 73 241 169 171 163 3,858 681 20 3,379 5,566 8,946 2,069 76 233 186 166 158 4,775 800 20 3,525 6,659 10,184 2,138 76 227 214 160 180 5,674 938 20 3,609 7,901 11,510 2035 2,218 88 225 257 158 229 6,330 1,111 2 3,779 9,088 12,867 Annual Growth (%) 0.4 -0.6 -0.6 1.4 -0.7 0.9 3.4 2.7 3.2 0.2 3.0 1.9
2012
Region/Country United States Canada Japan South Korea Australia/New Zealand Russia China India Brazil Total OECD Total Non-OECD Total world
History 2008 1,987 104 265 178 188 179 2,566 537 12 3,605 4,087 7,692
1,799 76 250 170 178 169 3,518 637 20 3,320 5,173 8,492
142
World Nuclear generation Capacity and net electricity generation World Nuclear installed generating capacity
Region/Country United States Canada Japan South Korea Australia/New Zealand Russia China India Brazil Total OECD Total Non-OECD Total world History 2008 101 13 48 18 0 23 9 4 2 313 65 378 2015 106 15 52 23 0 28 30 9 3 331 104 436 Projections 2020 2025 2030 111 18 55 27 0 39 55 16 3 349 157 505 111 18 56 29 0 47 75 21 4 360 201 561 111 20 59 31 0 49 95 25 4 373 230 603 2035 111 22 61 33 0 52 115 28 5 379 265 644
(Gigawatts)
Annual Growth (%) 0.4 1.8 0.9 2.3 0.0 3.0 9.9 7.4 3.7 0.7 5.3 2.0
(Billion Kilowatthours)
Projections 2020 2025 2030 877 134 358 233 0 342 585 157 31 2,680 1,508 4,188 877 152 388 253 0 366 749 187 31 2,799 1,747 4,546 2035 874 162 417 266 0 388 916 211 41 2,873 2,043 4,916 Annual Growth (%) 0.3 2.2 2.0 2.3 3.5 10.3 10.8 4.0 1.0 6.0 2.4
839 877 113 131 319 342 183 218 0 0 197 275 223 419 66 119 18 22 2,430 2,576 748 1,154 3,178 3,731
2012
143
World hydrogeneration Capacity and net electricity generation World Hydro installed generating capacity
Region/Country United States Canada Japan South Korea Australia/New Zealand Russia China India Brazil Total OECD Total Non-OECD Total world
Projections 2020 2025 2030 78 81 24 2 13 57 318 80 104 389 806 1,195 79 86 24 2 13 61 327 85 127 406 866 1,272 80 95 24 2 14 66 335 96 154 421 941 1,362
(Gigawatts)
2035 81 100 24 2 14 72 360 106 173 432 1,031 1,463 Annual Growth (%) 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.3 1.6 2.8 3.8 3.0 0.7 2.7 2.0
(Billion kilowatthours)
2015 297 374 88 4 40 199 810 174 416 1,418 2,363 3,781 2020 305 398 93 4 41 202 1,067 260 483 1,520 2,946 4,465 Projections 2025 2030 309 421 93 4 41 235 1,097 279 585 1,600 3,224 4,823 312 462 93 4 42 259 1,127 319 707 1,668 3,536 5,204 2035 314 486 95 4 44 286 1,215 356 792 1,717 3,903 5,620 Annual Growth (%) 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.0 2.1 3.2 4.3 2.9 1.0 2.9 2.2
2012
Region/Country United States Canada Japan South Korea Australia/New Zealand Russia China India Brazil Total OECD Total Non-OECD Total world
History 2008 256 379 75 3 34 163 522 113 366 1,329 1,791 3,121
144
World wind generation Capacity and net electricity generation World wind-powered installed generating capacity
Region/Country United States Canada Japan South Korea Australia/New Zealand Russia China India Brazil Total OECD Total Non-OECD Total world History 2008 25 2 2 0 2 0 12 10 0 97 24 121 2015 51 11 4 1 8 0 62 14 2 204 88 293 Projections 2020 2025 2030 51 13 5 2 11 0 99 16 2 267 130 398 54 14 8 2 11 0 119 20 3 300 157 456 55 15 8 3 11 0 139 22 3 315 181 496 2035 57 17 8 4 11 0 156 24 4 330 203 533
(Gigawatts)
Annual Growth (%) 3.1 7.5 5.6 9.9 6.2 0.1 9.9 3.3 8.5 4.7 8.2 5.7
(Billion kilowatthours)
Projections 2025 2030 154 39 20 6 30 0 334 44 6 806 426 1,232 159 42 20 8 31 0 394 50 7 852 499 1,350 2035 163 46 20 11 32 0 447 56 9 898 564 1,462 Annual Growth (%) 4.1 9.9 8.1 12.9 7.3 1.1 14.2 5.5 10.8 6.1 11.6 7.5
2012
145
World Solar generation Capacity and net electricity generation World solar installed generating capacity
Region/Country United States Canada Japan South Korea Australia/New Zealand Russia China India Brazil Total OECD Total Non-OECD Total world History 2008 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 14 2015 9 0 8 1 1 0 7 1 0 52 10 62 Projections 2020 2025 2030 11 0 12 1 1 0 18 3 0 61 25 86 11 0 16 1 1 0 19 6 0 67 31 97 12 0 20 1 1 0 20 7 0 73 36 106 2035 13 0 27 1 1 0 21 8 0 83 36 119
(Gigawatts)
Annual Growth (%) 8.8 7.7 9.8 4.7 9.6 20.2 35.6 6.9 21.6 8.3
(Billion kilowatthours)
2015 15 0 8 2 2 0 13 2 0 68 19 87 Projections 2020 2025 2030 17 0 17 2 2 0 34 6 0 86 48 134 18 0 23 2 2 0 36 13 0 95 60 155 19 1 30 2 3 0 37 15 0 105 65 170 2035 21 1 40 2 3 0 40 16 0 120 71 191 Annual Growth (%) 8.9 8.6 11.5 7.5 11.1 21.5 28.5 8.8 22.8 10.6
2012
Region/Country United States Canada Japan South Korea Australia/New Zealand Russia China India Brazil Total OECD Total Non-OECD Total world
History 2008 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 13
146
World geothermal generation Capacity and net electricity generation World geothermal installed generating capacity
Region/Country United States Canada Japan South Korea Australia/New Zealand Russia China India Brazil Total OECD Total Non-OECD Total world History 2008 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 6 4 9 2015 3 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 8 8 16 Projections 2020 2025 2030 3 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 9 8 17 4 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 11 9 19 6 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 13 10 22 2035 6 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 14 11 25
(Gigawatts)
Annual Growth (%) 3.7 0.0 4.0 0.0 4.7 4.4 3.3 4.3 3.7
(Billion kilowatthours)
Projections 2020 2025 2030 25 0 6 0 13 1 0 1 0 67 58 125 31 0 10 0 13 2 0 1 0 79 61 139 42 0 10 0 15 2 0 1 0 93 70 163 2035 49 0 10 0 15 2 0 1 0 104 81 186 Annual Growth (%) 4.5 5.3 5.1 5.5 3.8 5.0 4.2
2012
147
World Other renewable generation Capacity and net electricity generation World other renewable installed generating capacity
Region/Country United States Canada Japan South Korea Australia/New Zealand Russia China India Brazil Total OECD Total Non-OECD Total world History 2008 35 2 27 4 2 1 3 2 7 139 22 161 2015 38 2 27 6 3 1 14 3 7 148 35 183 Projections 2020 2025 2030 41 2 27 6 4 1 22 3 7 151 42 194 46 2 27 6 4 1 30 3 8 158 51 209 49 2 27 6 4 1 38 3 8 162 61 223 2035 49 2 27 6 4 1 44 4 9 164 68 232
(Gigawatts)
Annual Growth (%) 1.3 0.6 0.0 1.7 1.7 0.3 10.5 2.6 0.9 0.6 4.3 1.4
(Billion kilowatthours)
Projections 2020 2025 2030 131 8 21 9 8 2 136 11 19 309 186 496 177 8 21 9 8 3 197 12 23 362 252 614 187 9 21 9 8 3 257 14 28 381 321 702 2035 193 10 22 10 9 3 300 15 33 398 375 772 Annual Growth (%) 3.7 0.9 0.1 10.6 4.5 1.1 19.9 8.0 2.1 2.3 8.5 4.1
2012
Region/Country United States Canada Japan South Korea Australia/New Zealand Russia China India Brazil Total OECD Total Non-OECD Total world
148
2012
Annexure
149
Units
Units 1 metric tonne = 2204.62lb=1.11023 short tons 1 kilolitre=6.2898 barrels = 1 cubic metre 1 kilocalorie (kcal) = 4.187kJ = 3.968Btu 1 kilojoule (kJ) = 0.239kcal = 0.948Btu 1 British thermal unit (Btu) = 0.252 kcal = 1.055kJ 1 kilowatt-hour (kWh) = 860kcal = 3600kJ = 3412Btu
2012
1 4.1868x10-3
150 09
Disclaimer
The data and information in this book is sourced from websites and documents available in public domain and does not purport to be official view of Government or any organization. Sincere efforts have been made to present correct data; however, errors and omissions, if any, are regretted and the same may please be brought to the notice of WEC-IMC for necessary corrective action.
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