Faculty Seminar on

Virtual Worlds
Episode 7 - The Future - 4/22/08
cory ondrejka - cory.ondrejka@gmail.com
 this is our last session, so
interrupt and ask questions!
the future
or, more precisely
 (informed) guesswork on the
(many) futures of virtual worlds
 where “future”
==
“5 or more years from now”
why 5 or more?
lots happening in next 1-2 years
 the 800-lb
Gorilla
will do something
 open source will continue to
improve and explore design space
100 new kids worlds
 100 new kids worlds

($650 million == much interest)

web game worlds will build on
what the kids worlds have done
web game worlds will build on
what the kids worlds have done

(and explore
secondary
markets)
 [insert
thousands
of advertisement worlds
here]
 many
web + virtual world
and
virtual world + web
mashups
new players
more ways to build you
and if we give ourselves
1-2 years
then certainly
(almost certainly)
spore will launch
maybe even sony home
(resulting in game developers
talking about
user generated content)
but we know all this
so it isn’t very interesting
and doesn’t help us
 identify research areas
build new curricula
make long-term investments
so what happens if we look out
further into the future?
first off, we’ll be wrong
a lot
we’re wired wrong
bad at long term predictions
exponential reality

linear predictions
less short term change
more long term change
than we predict
worse, bad predictions compound

reality of compound errors

we think we’ll be this wrong

so what can we do?
 we can look at trends

(in this case, moore’s law)

technology adoption
 in 5-10 years,
most people will have a mobile
phone and access to the internet
 all of these trends point to
dramatic increases in computing
availability and performance
consider that 5-10 years
means
3-6 doublings
 so 8 - 64
times
cheaper, faster, or longer lasting
 between
1 and 2
orders of magnitude
25x can be hard to visualize
25x can be hard to visualize

25x mips,
same size
25x can be hard to visualize

25x mips,
same size
25x can be hard to visualize

25x smaller, 25x mips,

same perf same size
25x can be hard to visualize

25x smaller, 25x mips,

same perf same size

25x more storage is nearly a terrabyte

25x battery life is 8 months of standby,
8 continuous days of talking
reality will be a blend of these,
but that’s a lot of horsepower
everywhere
everyone
what other trends?
people are wearing technology
not just geeks
everyone and anywhere
this makes me think we’ll
overcome geordi-ness
and solve displays
 and we’ll be used to
wearing sensors

so this will also be a camera,

microphone, rfid reader, etc
 and the camera will be 3D
(see Mitch Kapor’s recent YouTube SL video)
sensors also mean input devices
one more critical trend
everybody wants the web to
do more
and
work better
(they may have bad definitions)
 but lots of people are working
on solving hard internet problems
identity
payment systems
seamless installation
online and offline transitions
(which also means sync)
sensors and smart gadgets
so, now can we talk about
virtual worlds?
what are the trends here?
 building the content
accessing virtual worlds
uses
hard problems to solve
filling them with stuff
 trends impacting four
approaches to building content
passive user generated
active user generated
stage magic
simulation
 passive user generated
(build content from people’s behavior)
can be macro or micro
 passive user generated
becomes pervasive as
photos and movies are
geotagged and captured
from
wearable, always-on devices
 wearable + sensors

this will be a camera

constantly streaming to flickr
more broadly, as more behavior
generates news feeds or data
streams, world content can be
built from that behavior
i.e.
 (perhaps time to consider the
privacy, legal, and emotional
impacts of collecting this data)
 and what additional
content we could capture
 if we geotag photos,
what about also recording
audio and conversation going on
during the photos?
(aka context tagging)
heart rate, galvanic response,
and brain activity?
(aka emotion tagging)
etc etc etc
all of these could endow
virtual places with
context, feelings, and life
active user generated
 active user generated
will rely on more blending of
real-world data, better input
devices, and better collaboration
 but we’re just scratching the
surface of what “better” means
 content generation trend
towards blended opportunities
rather than false dichotomies of
“mirror world”
versus
“virtual world”
 stage magic
(content made by highly paid team of
designers, programmers, and artists)
 stage magic
will leverage increasing
computing resources (ie, more
complex AI, pathing, etc) but will
also blur boundaries with the
real world and passive creation
 simulation
(and procedural, physics, etc)
 simulation and procedural
content creation is just
beginning to build the required
theoretical frameworks to move
beyond simple demos
 (talking about content
generation, not gameplay, before
the spore fanboys stone me)
 (also, spore is a very well
executed blend of stage magic
and simulation)
so how do we access them?
this one is simple
browser and mobile not only way
but will be the dominant way
virtual worlds are communication
communication must be pervasive
 don’t be a sad panda,
separate apps aren’t going away

but dedicated clients will be the

exception, not the norm
 virtual worlds that provide
sufficient levels of
interactivity
creativity
commerce
community
in browsers and mobile devices
will capture much larger audiences
 they key is recognizing the
special nature of
real-time presence
and
synchronous communication
and how to blend between the
virtual and the real
(which means thinking about the
implications for computer science
and engineering curricula, not to
mention chip and os design)
note that this
won’t
always be
3D
consider selling books
3D doesn’t necessarily improve this
(and we have proof)
but presence and community could
 especially when
we bring our communities
from here
with us where ever we go
which guides the next question
what are we using them for?
let’s count on a key element
presence
 and beyond

where you are

who you’re near
what you see
what you hear
 and beyond

where you are

senses position
who you’re near
senses motion
what you see
senses attention
what you hear
 and beyond

where you are

can display data senses position
who you’re near
overlay on world senses motion
what you see
blend reality senses attention
what you hear
and all of this data
stored
and
shared
today “life logging” is unusual
(and blending the data into virtual
worlds really so)
but what about when that’s the
default behavior of always on
devices?
especially as virtual worlds
continue to blend
play
and
work
with more twitter- and rss-like
ways of using them all the time
which is already starting
 and can find balance
between
play and work
communication and experience
and solve a few “minor” problems
(there are many challenges,
but let’s go with two)
usability
search
usability, especially on mobile
devices, is going to be tough
(and usability != appearance)
new input devices will help
but it’s time for new metaphors
but it’s time for new metaphors

a zillion dollars
to simulate
a table is the
best
we can do?
40 years ago mouse + keyboard
was the new hotness!
in 1968, the mouse + keyboard
was the new hotness!

(and took an incredibly innovative,

interdisciplinary group years to invent)
(yes, I am a Doug Engelbart fanboy)
but 40 years later, how did doug
use Second Life?
plus
plus
we need to do better
search
a lot of virtual world search
problems look like
local
and
social network
search
“find me something fun to do”
also deep questions about defining
what “likeness” means in 3D
“rez me a chair”
“no, a newer chair”
how alike
are
these?
so, to sum up...
future virtual worlds will
have more of the real world
available as content
(not necessarily mirror worlds)
will be blended to
varying degrees
with the real world
 (blended as
augmented reality,
alternate reality,
and virtual reality)
be available to you everywhere
(on any computer or cell phone
connected to the web)
be a basic component of
communication
(which people will use for work,
play, and games)
(this does not mean supplanting
either the web or games, but
instead virtual worlds become
pervasive complements to both)
let’s check these in 2015
(when we have
flying cars
and
jetpacks)
stop talking now
cory.ondrejka@gmail.com
http://ondrejka.net