Budget and Fiscal Trends

Prepared by the North Dakota

Legislative Council Staff
January 8, 2013

General Fund Revenues

Beginning Balance, Ongoing Revenues, and Transfers
Millions
$7,000.0

$6,000.0

Average biennial ongoing revenues increase

from 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 15.4%

Governors recommended ongoing

revenues increase is 12.0%

Total
$2,385.4

$14.5
$1,179.7
$4,271.9

Total
$1,911.7

$4,783.2
$194.6

$3,000.0

$154.7
$157.8

$2,000.0

$2,753.0

$2,520.7

$2,162.7

$1,739.1

$996.8

$1,000.0
$14.8

Total
$4,866.7

$621.8
Total
$3,010.8

$5,000.0
$4,000.0

Total
$4,294.5

Total
$5,890.5

$295.5

$69.0

$361.8

$68.0

$0.0
2003-05
Actual

2005-07
Actual

Beginning Balance

2007-09
Actual

2009-11
Actual

Ongoing Revenues

2011-13

2013-15

Executive Budget
Transfers

General Fund Revenues Major Revenue Types

Millions
$3,000.0

Governors forecasted sales tax

tax increase is 18.4%

Actual average biennial sales tax increase

from 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 32.7%

$2,523.1

$2,500.0
$2,131.7

$2,000.0
$1,500.0

$1,267.2
$1,046.5

$1,000.0

$884.9

$841.9
$717.8

$681.7

$729.3

$500.8

$500.0
$0.0

$883.1

$465.9
$452.5
$102.9

$587.7

$552.8

$522.2

$232.3

$239.7

$234.4

2003-05

2005-07

2007-09

2009-11

Actual

Actual

Actual

Actual

Sales Tax

Individual Income Tax

$953.5

$372.2

2011-13

$926.1

$380.5

2013-15

Executive Budget

Corporate Income Tax

Others
3

Total Oil & Gas Gross Production Tax

and Oil Extraction Tax Revenues
Total
$5,128.3

Millions

$5,000.0
Total
$3,829.6
$1,603.6

$4,000.0
$1,464.1

$3,000.0

Total
$1,568.2

$2,000.0

$1,000.0

$120.5

$0.0

$1,073.3

Total
$799.1

Total
$352.6

Total
$192.7

$38.8

$33.4

$56.6

2003-05

2005-07

Actual

State Share

Actual

Legacy Fund

$161.8
$246.2
$1,331.9

$558.3
$53.9

$205.9
$305.8

$884.2

2007-09

2009-11

2011-13

Actual

Actual

$153.0

$191.4
$520.3

$1,056.5
$242.1

$1,481.1

$87.8

Tribes

2013-15

Executive Budget

Political Subdivisions

Special Funds
4

State Share of Oil & Gas Gross Production Tax

and Oil Extraction Tax Revenues
Millions

Total
$1,603.6

$1,800.0
Total
$1,464.1

$1,600.0

Total
$1,056.6

$1,400.0

$22.0

$22.0

$1,200.0
$939.8
$800.3

$1,000.0

Total
$558.3

$800.0
Total
$242.1

$600.0
$400.0
$200.0

$985.6

$487.3

Total
$120.5

$49.5

$171.1
$71.0

$0.0

$341.8

$71.0

$300.0

$300.0

2011-13

2013-15

$71.0

$71.0

2003-05

2005-07

2007-09

2009-11

Actual

Actual

Actual

Actual

State disaster relief fund

Property tax relief sustainability fund
General fund

$341.8

Executive Budget

Strategic investment and improvements fund

Permanent oil tax trust fund
5

Appropriations General Fund, Federal Funds,

and Special Funds Appropriations
Millions
$6,000.0

$5,000.0

Governors recommended
general fund increase is 13.0%

Average biennial general fund

increase from 2003-05 to 2011-13
is 23.8%

$4,786.2
$4,236.7

$4,000.0

$4,815.9

$3,682.2
$3,319.5
$3,296.6

$3,000.0

$2,574.3
$2,132.2

$3,042.8

$2,347.2

$3,182.6

$2,494.7

$2,000.0
$1,816.9

$1,000.0

$2,000.5

$1,960.2
$1,555.0

$1,157.5

$1,438.0

$0.0
2003-05
General Fund

2005-07

2007-09

Federal Funds

2009-11

2011-13

Special Funds

2013-15
Executive
Budget
6

Appropriations Ongoing and One-Time

General Fund Appropriations
Millions
$6,000.0

Total
$4,786.2

Total
$4,236.7

$5,000.0
Total
$3,296.6

$4,000.0

$990.5
$702.1

Total
$2,574.3

$3,795.7
$3,534.6

$3,000.0

$315.4
Total
$2,005.5

$2,000.0

$2,981.2

7.4%
Increase

18.6%
Increase

$256.7
$2,317.6
28.6%
Increase

$1,000.0
$0.0
2005-07

2007-09
Ongoing

2009-11
One-Time

2011-13
Total

2013-15
Executive
Budget
7

Appropriations Major General Fund Appropriations

Millions
$1,400.0
$1,244.0
$1,176.9

$1,200.0

$1,114.7
$1,043.3

$1,000.0
$941.0

$800.0

$715.5
$604.8

$600.0

$636.7

$912.6

$657.8

$652.1

$593.9

$484.4

$593.4

$411.1
$472.0

$400.0
$364.0

$200.0
$83.5

$389.6

$105.2
$173.1

$167.1

$159.6

$180.0

2007-09

2009-11

2011-13

2013-15

$0.0
2003-05
K-12

2005-07
Human Services

Higher Education

Average increase-23.6%
Average increase-16.2%
Average increase-21.3%
2013-15 biennial decrease-16.1% 2013-15 biennial increase-25.1% 2013-15 biennial increase-38.7%

Corrections

Executive
Budget

Average increase-20.6%
2013-15 biennial increase-12.8%
8

Appropriations Comparison of General Fund Appropriations

and Total Personal Income
Millions

Millions

$9,000.0

$90,000.0
$80,000.0
$70,000.0

$80,037.0

Personal income Cumulative percentage

increase 128.1%

$8,000.0

$69,503.0

$7,000.0
$57,675.0

$60,000.0

$30,000.0

$4,786.2

$43,236.0

$50,000.0
$40,000.0

$6,000.0

$51,996.0
$4,236.7

$39,038.0

$1,816.9

$4,000.0

$3,296.6
$2,000.5

$5,000.0

$3,000.0

$2,574.3
Appropriations Cumulative percentage
increase 176.9%

$20,000.0
$10,000.0

$2,000.0
$1,000.0
$0.0

$0.0
2003-05

2005-07

Personal Income

2007-09

2009-11

2011-13

2013-15
Executive
Budget

General Fund Appropriations

9

Higher Education General Fund Appropriations and

Tuition and Student Fee Revenue

Millions
$1,000.0

$900.0

Governors recommended
general fund increase is 38.7%
Average biennial general fund increase
from 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 16.2%

$800.0
$700.0
$600.0

Total
$772.4

Total
$880.7

$912.6
Total
$1,227.9

Total
$1,025.2

Total
$1,296.8

$657.8
$634.6

$686.5

$553.2
$491.1

$500.0

Total
$1,599.1

$593.4

$639.0

$408.4
$472.0

$400.0
$389.6

$300.0

$364.0

Average biennial tuition and fee

revenue increase from 2003-05 to
2013-15 is 11.2%

$200.0
$100.0
$0.0
2003-05

2005-07

General Fund Appropriations

2007-09

2009-11

2011-13

Tuition and Fee Revenue

2013-15
Executive
Budget
10

Higher Education General Fund Appropriations

and Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Enrollments
Millions
$1,000.0

100,000
Governors recommended
general fund increase is 38.7%

$900.0

$912.6

90,000

Average biennial general fund increase

from 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 16.2%

80,000

$800.0
$700.0

70,000

$657.8
$593.3

$600.0

60,000
$472.0

$500.0
$400.0
$300.0

$364.0
35,910

50,000

$389.6

40,000
38,232
35,511

35,585
Average FTE enrollment
increase from 2003-05 to
2011-13 is 2.1%

$200.0
2003-05

2005-07

Average Annual FTE Enrollment

2007-09

2009-11

38,896

39,057

Projected enrollment
increase is 0.4%

30,000
20,000

2011-13

General Fund Appropriations

2013-15
Executive
Budget
11

Higher Education Resident Tuition Rates

$7,000
$5,964

$6,000
$5,270

$5,455

$6,037

$5,646

$5,019
$4,780

$5,000

$4,375
$3,886

$3,996

$4,000

$4,080

$4,223

$4,371

$4,480

$4,592

$3,701

$3,408

$3,379
$3,086

$3,000

$2,628

$2,413

$2,000

$2,818

$2,959

2006-07

2007-08

$3,107

$3,107

$3,107

$3,147

$3,187

$2,588

$2,014

$1,000

$0
2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

Two-Year Institutions
Average annual increase-5.4%
Cumulative increase-58.3%

2008-09

Research Institutions
Average annual increase-6.7%
Cumulative increase-77.2%

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

Other Four-Year Institutions

Average annual increase-6.5%
Cumulative increase-74.7%

12

Kindergarten Through Grade 12

State School Aid and Other Grant Funding
Millions
$2,000.0

$1,800.0

Average biennial total funds increase

from 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 21.5%

Total
$1,886
Total
$1,361.5

2013-15 biennial total

funds increase is 38.5%

Total
$1,282.8

$1,600.0

$714.2

$1,400.0
$1,200.0
$1,000.0
$800.0

Total
$669.0

Total
$702.6

Total
$789.2

$26.2
$85.6
$86.3

$101.6
$1,233.7

$76.2
$69.5

$4.2

$1,106.7

$140.3
$1,031.5

$71.6
$713.0

$600.0
$599.5

$631.0

2003-05

2005-07

$400.0
$200.0
$0.0
2007-09

2009-11

2011-13

Property tax relief

Federal and other special funds (fiscal stimulus in 2009-11; education jobs and oil impact in 2011-13)
State tuition fund
General fund - School aid and other general fund grants

2013-15
Executive
Budget

13

Kindergarten Through Grade 12

Teachers and Student Enrollment
120,000

12,000
Average annual enrollment
decrease from 2003-04 to
2012-13 is 0.2%

11,500

Average annual personnel

increase from 2003-04 to
2012-13 is 0.36%

115,000

11,000

110,000

10,500

105,000
101,137

99,324

10,000

99,192
97,120
95,600
94,057

9,500

93,715

94,729

100,000

95,778

95,000

93,405
9,461

9,000

9,159

9,120
9,079

9,015

9,046

9,083

9,228

9,264

9,307

90,000
85,000

8,500
Teachers

Student Enrollment

80,000

8,000
2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

14

Department of Human Services

General Fund and Total Funds Appropriations
Millions
$3,000.0

$2,790.5
$2,648.5

$2,500.0

$2,290.4

$1,884.8

$2,000.0

$1,680.1
$1,522.6

$1,508.9

$1,593.5
$1,488.8

$1,500.0
$1,184.6
$1,010.8

$1,176.9

$1,097.9
$941.0

$1,000.0
$500.0

$652.1

$593.9

$411.1

$484.4

$87.0

$97.8

$106.3

2003-05

2005-07

2007-09

$114.0

$115.7

$124.8

$0.0
Total Funds
Average increase-15.2%
2013-15 biennial increase-5.4%

Federal Funds
Average increase-12.4%
2013-15 biennial decrease-6.6%

2009-11

2011-13

General Fund

Special Funds

Average increase-23.6%
2013-15 biennial increase-25.1%

Average increase-7.1%
2013-15 biennial increase-9.5%

2013-15
Executive
Budget

15

Department of Human Services Medicaid Funding

Millions
$2,000.0

Governors recommended
total funds increase is 9.2%
Average biennial total funds increase
from 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 15.9%

$1,751.8

$1,800.0

$1,604.6

$1,600.0
$1,362.2

$1,400.0
$1,114.8

$1,200.0
$1,000.0
$800.0

$953.9

$989.1

$933.7

$891.1
$740.7
$619.9

$675.4

$635.5

$600.0
$400.0

$969.1

$818.1

$408.3
$313.8

$374.1

$271.3

$200.0
$0.0
2003-05
Total Funds

2005-07

2007-09

Federal and Other Funds

2009-11

2011-13

General Fund

2013-15
Executive
Budget

16

Department of Human Services Major Medicaid Costs

Millions
$600.0
$501.3
$459.6

$500.0

$502.4
$425.7

$400.0

$397.0

$371.5
$318.4

$341.5

$343.0

$300.0

$274.4

$258.6
$239.9

$211.7

$200.0

$198.4

$190.6
$153.2
$98.1

$100.0

$121.3
$66.3

$95.2
$48.3

$55.9

$104.7

$57.7

$50.9

$50.5

$44.9

2007-09

2009-11

2011-13

2013-15

$59.9

$0.0
2003-05

2005-07

$121.6

$99.6

Executive
Budget
Nursing Homes

Developmental Disabilities

Hospitals

Physicians

Drugs
17

Department of Human Services

Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP)
75.00%
72.82%

70.00%

69.95%
68.36%

68.31%

65.00%

67.49%
67.49%
65.85%
64.72%

60.00%
55.00%
50.00%

The enhanced FMAP included in the

American Recovery and Reinvestment
Act of 2009 of 69.95% was effective for
the 2009 and 2010 federal fiscal years
and the first quarter of the 2011 federal
fiscal year. The enhanced FMAP was
reduced to 66.95% for the second
quarter of 2011 and to 64.95% for the
third quarter (which ended June 30,
2011).

63.75%
63.75%
60.35%
63.15% 63.01%
60.35%

55.40%
52.27%
50.00%

45.00%

In 2013 the FMAP will be the lowest

since 1979 when it was 50.71%.

40.00%
2003

2004

2005

FMAP

2006

2007

2008

Fiscal Relief FMAP

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Enhanced FMAP (ARRA)

18

Department of Human Services Nursing Home and

Home and Community-Based Care Funding Total Funds
Millions
$700.0

$600.0

Governors recommended increase

for home and community-based care
is 4.9%

$63.9

$66.1

Millions
$69.4 $70.0

Average biennial increase from

2003-05 to 2011-13 for home and
community-based care is 22.6%

$60.0

$500.0

$50.0
$501.3
$37.7

$400.0

$39.8

$459.6

$40.0

$425.7
$31.2

$371.5
$343.0

$300.0

Governors recommended
increase for nursing home
care is 9.1%

$318.4

$200.0

$30.0
$20.0

Average biennial increase from

2003-05 to 2011-13 for nursing
home care is 9.6%

$100.0

$10.0
2003-05

2005-07

Nursing Home Care

2007-09

2009-11

2011-13

Home and Community-Based Care

2013-15
Executive
Budget
19

Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation

General Fund Appropriations and Inmate Counts
Includes $41 million of one-time
funding for 2007-09 and $22.5 million
of one-time funding for 2009-11

Millions
$200.0

$180.0

2,000
Average biennial general
fund increase from 2003-05
to 2011-13 is 20.6%

$173.1

1,405

1,445

$160.0
$140.0

Governors recommended
general fund increase is 12.8%

$180.0

$167.1

1,800
$159.6

1,478

1,295

1,490

1,600
1,484

$120.0

1,200

$100.0
$80.0

Estimated inmate count

decrease is 0.4%

$105.2

1,000
800

$83.5

$60.0
$40.0

1,400

600
Average biennial inmate count increase
from 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 3.6%

400

$20.0

200

$0.0

0
2003-05

2005-07

2007-09

2009-11

General Fund Appropriations

Average Daily Inmate (Incarcerated) Count

2011-13

2013-15
Executive
Budget
20

Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation

FTE Positions and Inmate Counts
1,600
1,400

Estimated inmate count

decrease is 0.4%

Average biennial inmate count increase

from 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 3.6%

1,405

1,445

1,478

1,490

1,484

794.29

814.29

1,295

1,200
1,000
711.29

800
644.18

735.29

677.28

600
400

Governors recommended
FTE position increase is 2.5%
Average biennial FTE position increase
from 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 5.4%

200
0
2003-05

2005-07

2007-09

2009-11

FTE Positions
Average Daily Inmate (Incarcerated) Count

2011-13

2013-15
Executive
Budget
21

Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation

Inmate Counts

1,600
1,400
1,200

Total
1,405
Total
1,295

157

Total
1,445

154

Total
1,478

169

Total
1,484

164

162

125
1,322

1,000
1,309

800
600

Total
1,490

1,248

1,291

2005-07

2007-09

1,326

1,170

400
200
0
2003-05

2009-11

2011-13

Average Daily Female (Incarcerated) Count

Average Daily Male Inmate (Incarcerated) Count

2013-15
Executive
Budget
22

State Employees Total FTE Positions

(Excluding Higher Education)
Governors recommended
increase is 123.82

9,400
FTE positions increase from
2003-05 to 2013-15 is 774.19

9,160.24

9,200
9,000

9,036.42
8,930.13

8,800
8,828.17

8,600
8,400
8,386.05

8,437.68

2003-05

2005-07

Increase of 390.49 includes 132.20

added to the Department of Human
Services for state administration of
child support

8,200
8,000
7,800
2007-09

2009-11

2011-13

2013-15
Executive
Budget
23

Major Direct Assistance to Political Subdivisions

(Including School-Related Funding)
Millions
$4,000.0

Total
$3,403.9

$3,500.0

Total
$2,516.4

$3,000.0

Total
$1,889.8

$2,500.0

$2,268.5
$1,054.5

$2,000.0

Total
$1,013.9

Total
$1,093.8

Total
$1,322.3

$684.4

$1,500.0
$507.8

$1,000.0

$375.6

$500.0

$638.3

$673.5

2003-05

2005-07

$1,461.9

$420.3

$1,135.4

$1,205.4
$814.5

$0.0
2007-09

2009-11

2011-13

General Fund Appropriations

Special Funds Appropriations and Revenue Allocations

2013-15
Executive
Budget

24

Major Direct Assistance to Political Subdivisions

(Including School-Related Funding)
Millions
$4,000.0

Total
$3,403.9

$3,500.0

Total
$2,516.4

$3,000.0
$2,500.0
$2,000.0

Total
$1,093.8

Total
$1,013.9

$1,500.0
$1,000.0
$500.0

$80.5

$89.2

$65.9
$109.0
$73.3
$685.2

$121.6 $76.9
$83.9
$722.2

Total
$1,322.3

$142.0
$546.8
$328.7
$190.0

$172.4

$169.4
$141.2
$800.6

$375.3

Total
$1,889.8

$153.7
$107.6
$103.5

$35.0
$183.5

$274.0
$153.4
$207.6

$124.9

$1,220.4

$190.9
$246.5

$1,902.5

$1,362.8

$0.0
2003-05

2005-07

2007-09

2009-11

2011-13

Other Appropriations and Revenue Allocations

2013-15
Executive
Budget

Select Transportation Funding Distributions

Coal-Related and Oil-Related Taxes
Motor Vehicle Fuel Tax and Registration Fee Allocations
State Aid Distribution Funds
School-Related Funding (2009-11 and after include property tax relief)

25