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How can risk be managed within a project? Use a diagram to illustrate your answer. (15 Marks) A new MS Access/Visual Basic system for a chemical development company will take 1 week for requirements capture, 7 weeks for development and 3 weeks for acceptance testing. There is an 80% chance that this is insufficient because the MS Access specialist may be required to support a different project of higher priority. If this were to happen the 7 weeks development would extend to 10 weeks, at a cost of 6 person-weeks. (i) Draw a diagram to demonstrate the impact of the risk, and calculate how the project plan would need to be modified in terms of additional effort and duration. (8 Marks) (ii) A two-week training course on Advanced MS Access could be booked and would reduce the risk to 50% at a cost of 4 person-weeks. The training could take place in parallel with the requirements capture. Draw a diagram to show the containment action and the recalculate the revised impact on effort and duration. (8 Marks) (iii) Should the training course be booked? Justify your answer. (2 Marks)
Whichever option is chosen, insurance will need to be paid at 15% per machine per annum of the purchase price. Barter and Haggle plan to replace the equipment after seven years, and have negotiated with Hiram Safely that they will be paid 250 per machine if they renew a new rental option at that time with that company; no similar deal has been negotiated with Linkway Computers. When you undertake the cost calculations, you will also need to take into account any income generated from the collection of the workstations. You are required to calculate the apparent costs, and the Net Present Value for: Option 1 (purchase) Option 2 (rental) given the Discounted Cash Flow rates of 12% and 15% below. Which option would you recommend, and why? DCF Factors Year DCF 12% DCF 15%
(4 marks)
0 1.0 1.0
1 .89 .87
2 .80 .76
3 .71 .66
4 .64 .57
5 .57 .50
6 .51 .43
7 .45 .38
8 .40 .33
(b)
Note: You may enter the results of your calculations in the table or on the network diagram and attach these pages to your answer booklet. You may assume the times are in days, all activities are appropriate, and the network diagram is correct. Table I Activity A B C D E F G H I J Most Likely Time 2 5 6 4 3 9 8 7 1 3 EET LET Float
C
30
6 D 4
B A
10 20
5 E 3 G H 8 7
60
50
F 9
70
I 1
80
J 3
90
Note: You may enter the results of your calculations in the table or on the network diagram and attach these pages to your answer booklet.
Now that you have finished the calculations for the network diagram, Lee has asked you to carry out the following tasks: (c) Calculate the expected time (using the PERT formula) from the optimistic, most likely and pessimistic times Lee has identified in Table II below. (10 marks) Specify and comment on the effect of using the Expected Time as opposed to the Most Likely Time on the critical path for Lee's network diagram. (5 marks)
(d)
Note: You may enter the results of your calculations in the table or on the network diagram and attach these pages to your answer booklet. Table II Activity A B C D E F G H Most Likely Time 2 5 6 4 3 9 8 7 1 3 Optimistic Time 1 1.5 2.5 3 2 8 7.5 6.5 0.5 1.5 Pessimistic Time 3 5.5 6.5 5 4 10 14.5 13.5 1.5 4.5 Expected Time
(i) (ii)
(iii)
Draw a diagram to demonstrate the impact of the risk, and calculate how the project plan would need to be modified in terms of additional effort and duration. (8 Marks) The Java developer could attend a two-week Oracle training course before requirements capture. This would reduce the risk to 25% at a cost of 2 person-weeks. Draw a diagram to show the containment action and recalculate the revised impact on effort and duration. (8 Marks) Should the training course be booked? Please explain your answer. (2 Marks)
There are dependencies between certain activities, as given below: Activity B cannot start until Activity A has finished Activity D cannot start until Activity C has finished For technical reasons, there must be 3 consecutive working days between the end of Activity C and the start of Activity E (e.g. if the last day Activity C runs is a Monday, Activity E could not start until Friday, but if the last day Activity C runs is a Friday, Activity E could not start before the following Thursday) Activity F cannot start until Activity E has finished (a) Draw a Gantt chart showing each activity for this project. How many working days does the project take, and when does the project finish? (11 marks) (b) If additional resources are made available so that Activity C starts 1 working day earlier and its duration is reduced from 5 days to 4, what effect does this have on the project? Draw a Gantt chart to illustrate your answer. (10 marks) (c) If Activity C is delayed by 1 working day, based on the original start plan, what effect does this have on the project? Use a Gantt chart to illustrate your answer. (12 marks)
(b)
Note: You may enter the results of your calculations in the table or on the network diagram and attach these pages to your answer booklet. You may assume the times are in days, all activities are appropriate, and the network diagram is correct. Table I Activity A B C D E F G H I J Duration 2 3 5 4 6 9 8 6 3 1 EET LET Float/ Slack Staff Resources 3 1 3 5 7 4 3 6 3 2
30
E 6
B A
10 20
3 C 5 D 4
60 50
F 9 H
70
I 3
80
J 1
90
G 8
40
Note: You may enter the results of your calculations in the table or on the network diagram and attach these pages to your answer booklet.
Now that you have finished the calculations for the network diagram, Alex has asked you to carry out the following tasks: (c) (d) What are the staff resources used each day for the project? (12 marks)
What is the peak day for staff resources? What would the effect of starting Activity E four days later than the EET? (3 marks)
(iii) (b)
This question refers to figure 1 and figure 2, shown on the following page. (i) (ii) (iii) Compare and contrast figure 1 and figure 2. (5 Marks) Briefly explain the difference between containment and contingency as depicted in figure 1 (3 Marks) Briefly explain what is meant by the terms risk assessment and risk monitoring in figure 2 (4 Marks)
Containment
Control
Project Plan
Trigger
Contingency
Figure 1
Start
Risk resolution
Risk monitoring
End
Figure 2
There are dependencies between certain activities, as given below: Each activity must start as soon as possible after any preceding activities, given the following constraints Activity C cannot start until Activity A has finished Activity A and Activity D must start at the same time For technical reasons, there must be 3 consecutive working days between the end of Activity C and the start of Activity E (e.g. if the last day Activity C runs is a Monday, Activity E could not start until Friday, leaving Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday as the 3 consecutive working days, but if the last day Activity C runs is a Friday, Activity E could not start before the following Thursday, leaving Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday as the 3 consecutive working days) Activity F cannot start until Activity E has finished (a) Draw a Gantt chart showing each activity for this project. How many working days does the project take, and when does the project end (i.e. what is the first working day after all activities are finished)? (11 marks) (b) If additional resources are made available so that Activity B starts 1 working day earlier and its duration is reduced from 6 days to 4, what effect does this have on the project? How many working days does the project now take, and when does the project end (i.e. what is the first working day after all activities are finished)? This change to the project will cost an additional 500; justify your reasons as to whether you would recommend this proposed change. Draw a full Gantt chart to illustrate your answer. (11 marks)
(c) Based on the original plan outlined in (a) above, if Activity A overruns by 2 working days, what effect does this have on the project? Draw a full Gantt chart to illustrate your answer. How many working days does the project now take, and when does the project end (i.e. what is the first working day after all activities are finished)? (11 marks)
(9 marks) (9 marks)
(b)
Note: You may enter the results of your calculations in the table or on the network diagram and attach these pages to your answer booklet. You may assume the times are in days, all activities are appropriate, and the network diagram is correct. Table I Activity A B C D E F G H I J
Duration 3 4 6 5 9 3 2 6 4 2
EET
LET
Float
Staff resources 3 7 8 5 6 7 2 4 9 5
10
30
C 6
B 4
10
A 3
20
D 5 G 2
60
50
E 9 I
70
F 3
80
J 2
90
H 6
40
Note: You may enter the results of your calculations in the table or on the network diagram and attach these pages to your answer booklet.
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Now that you have finished the calculations for the network diagram, Chas has asked you to carry out the following tasks: (c) Assuming that all activities start at their Earliest Event Time (EET), what are the staff resources used each day for the project? What is/are the peak day(s) for staff resources? (You may use Table II to illustrate your answer). (10 marks) Assuming that all activities start at their Latest Event Time (LET), what are the staff resources used each day for the project? What is/are the peak day(s) for staff resources? (You may use Table III to illustrate your answer). (10 marks)
(d)
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Project Planning and Management Question 4. (May 2003: Leadership and motivation)
You have been appointed as project manager by Candle & Carver Ltd, a traditional furniture manufacturer, to design and develop a customer database system. You have outlined your project plans, which include training sessions for Candle & Carver's staff on using the new system. Barry Bullimore, Customer Services Manager, is in charge of the team of end users. He says he doesn't see the need for staff training. If staff can't find out how to use the system themselves, we'll just appoint new staff who can, says Barry. Candle & Carver acknowledge that they have a problem retaining staff in the customer services department. (a) Identify and describe each of the 6 leadership styles as discussed by Burke (1999). Specify which of these styles appears to be closest to Barry Bullimore's approach to leadership, and explain why. You may also refer to other styles of leadership in your answer. (18 marks) (b) The senior management of Candle & Carver Ltd have asked you to make a presentation lasting 20 to 30 minutes dealing with aspects of staff motivation. Barry Bullimore will be one of eight departmental managers attending your presentation. Identify and describe the issues that you would raise at this presentation. (15 marks)
(b)
You may assume that the times are in days, the network diagram is correct in that the activities are in the right order, and the duration is accurate in each case. Note: You may enter the results of your calculations in Table I or on Network Diagram I and attach these pages to your answer booklet. Table I Activity A B C D E F G H I J Duration 3 4 6 2 3 2 6 3 5 2 EET LET Float/Slack
13
Network Diagram I
30
E B 4
10
3 C 6 H
70
A 3
20
50
F 2 I
80
J 2
90
D 2
60
G 6
40
Note: You may enter the results of your calculations in the Table I or on Network Diagram I and attach these pages to your answer booklet. Remember to add your student number, examination hall and seat number in the space provided.
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(c)
Using your calculations from Table I and Network Diagram I above, identify and explain any errors in Bob's calculations for the Earliest Event Time (EET), the Latest Event Time (LET) and the float or slack associated with each activity as shown in Table II below. Your answer should demonstrate why any calculations are in error, not simply provide an amended version. (15 marks) Bob Bodgett has identified the critical path as B, E, H and J. Is this correct, given Bobs calculations? Explain your answer. (4 Marks)
(d)
0 3 3 3 7 9 5 10 11 13
Bob's LET
-2 1 1 1 7 8 3 10 9 13
Bob's Float
-2 -2 -2 -2 0 -1 -2 0 -2 0
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Network Diagram II Bob Bodgett's EETs, LETs and critical path. Bob Bodgett's critical path shown as a dotted line: B, E, H, J
7, 7
30
E 3
B 4
0, -2
10
A 3
3, 1
20
C 6 D
9, 8
50
F 2
10, 10
70
H 3
13, 13
80
J 2
15,15
90
I
5,3
60
G 6
11, 9
40
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(a) Describe two different models of risk management. You should illustrate your answer with diagrams. (Diagrams alone are not sufficient). What are the key features common to both the models you have chosen? (15 Marks) (b) A new Visual Basic/MS Access system for a sales company will take 5 weeks for requirements capture, 8 weeks for development and 4 weeks for acceptance testing. There is a 75% chance that this will be insufficient because the developers are not experienced in Visual Basic. This would result in a delay of 3 weeks, with an additional 12 person-weeks involved in development. (i) Draw a diagram to demonstrate the impact of the risk, and calculate the additional effort and duration that would need to be accommodated in the project plan. (8 Marks) (ii) A 1-week training course in parallel with requirements capture would reduce this risk to 20%, but it would involve 5 person-weeks. Draw a diagram to show the containment action and then calculate the revised impact on effort and duration. (8 Marks) (iii) Based on your calculations above, should the training course be booked? Please explain your answer. (2 Marks)
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Consider the following activities, which are part of a project scheduled to start on Tuesday 30 March 2004. Note that Saturday and Sunday are not working days, and that Friday 9 April, Monday 12 April and Monday 3 May 2004 are Bank Holidays (and therefore not working days). Only working days are numbered; you should number these on your Gantt charts. Activity A B C D E F Start Day 0 1 4 12 15 22 Duration (in working days) 3 3 4 3 6 3
You should note that all activities must start as soon as possible; you should also take into account the dependencies between certain activities described below: Activity B must start one day after Activity A has started; Activity C cannot start until both Activity A and Activity B have finished; Activity C must run on 4 consecutive working days (not split over a weekend); There must be a gap of two working days (which can be split over a weekend) between the end of Activity C and the start of Activity D; Activity D must run on 3 consecutive working days (not split over a weekend); Activity D must have finished before Activity E can start; Activity E must have finished before Activity F can start; Activity F must run on 3 consecutive working days (not split over a weekend).
(a) Draw one Gantt chart showing each activity for this project. (9 marks) (i) How many working days does the project take, and when does the project finish (i.e. what is the first working day when all activities have been completed)? (2 marks) (b) What happens if Activity B overruns by one day? Draw a complete Gantt chart to illustrate your answer. (6 marks) (i) How many working days does the project now take, and when does the project finish? Comment on your results. (5 marks) (c) The reallocation of a team member to Activity C, based on the original plan, means that this activity now takes 3 working days rather than 4, but Activity E now takes 7 working days rather than 6 as a result. What is the effect of this on the project as a whole? Draw a complete Gantt chart to illustrate your answer. (6 marks) (i) How many working days does the project now take, and when does the project finish? Comment on your results. (5 marks)
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Identify 10 activities that have been specified from the above scenario. (You may specify these activities in your answer book, or in Table I below). Note that you do not need an activity to represent the conference itself. (5 marks) Table I Activity A B C D E F G H I J (a) Construct a network diagram for the 10 activities that you have identified in (a) above, using the Activity-on-Arrow convention. You must indicate which activities have to occur in sequence (dependencies), and which can run in parallel, but you do not need to consider the start time or duration of each activity. You may wish to indicate the predecessor of each activity in Table I above, or by a description to accompany your network diagram. (13 marks) (b) You are also working on another conference for a different client. You have specified the duration in days for each activity and constructed the network diagram for the project. (i) Using Table II and/or Network Diagram I below, calculate the Earliest Event Time (EET) and the Latest Event Time (LET) for the start of each activity, and the float/slack associated with each activity. (10 marks) (ii) Identify the critical path based on your calculations. (5 Marks) You may assume that the times are in days, the network diagram is correct in that the activities are in the right order, and the duration is accurate in each case. Note: You may enter the results of your calculations in Table II or on Network Diagram I and attach these pages to your answer booklet. Remember to add your student number, examination hall and seat number in the space provided. Do not write your name on the answer sheets. Table II Activity A B C D E F G H I J Description Predecessor
Duration 2 3 5 4 5 4 6 2 5 3
EET
LET
Float/Slack
19
Network Diagram I 60
H E 5
10
2
70
A 2
20
B 3 C 5
30
40
F 4 G
I 5
80
J 3
90
D 4
50
Note: You may enter the results of your calculations in the Table I or on Network Diagram I and attach these pages to your answer booklet. Remember to add your student number, examination hall and seat number in the space provided. Do not write your name to the answer sheets.
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(a) In the context of risk analysis and management, what is meant by each of the following the terms? i. risk (6 marks) ii. contingency plan (3 marks) iii. containment action (3 marks) iv. tracker (3 marks) (b) A new web-based holiday reservation system for a travel agency will take 3.5 weeks for requirements capture, 10 weeks for development and 5 weeks for acceptance testing. There is a 65% chance that the time allowed for development will not be sufficient because the developers are not experienced in Java. This would result in a delay of 4 weeks, with an additional 9 person-weeks involved in development. i. Draw a diagram to demonstrate the impact of the risk, and calculate the additional effort and duration that would need to be accommodated in the project plan. (8 Marks) A 2-week training course before requirements capture would reduce this risk to 10%, but it would involve an additional 3 person-weeks. Draw a diagram to illustrate the inclusion of the training course, and then calculate the revised impact on effort and duration. (8 Marks) Based on your calculations above, should the training course be booked? Please explain your answer. (2 Marks)
ii.
iii.
(4 marks)
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(b) Show how the above variables can be used to calculate the following values for a project, and what information each provides in the context of project management. i. ii. schedule variance (in cost terms) cost variance (4 marks) (4 marks)
(c) Explain how schedule variance and cost variance can be used to determine the status of a project. (16 marks)
You should note that all activities must start as soon as possible; you should also take into account the dependencies between the activities described below: Activity B must start two days after Activity A has started; Activity C cannot start until both Activity A and Activity B have finished; There must be a gap of two working days (which can be split by a weekend) between the end of Activity C and the start of Activity D; Activity D and Activity E must start on the same working day; Activity E must run on consecutive working days (not split by a weekend); Activity E must have finished before Activity F can start; Activity F must run on 4 consecutive working days (not split by a weekend). Activity G must start on 27 May 2004. [Blank Gantt chart grids are attached in the examination]. (a) Draw a Gantt chart that shows each activity for this project. You may use the blank charts provided. (7 marks) i. How many working days does the project take, and when does the project finish (i.e. what is the first working day after all activities have been completed)? (2 marks) ii. Show how many staff are required on each working day of the project. (3 marks) iii. Identify the working day(s) where most staff are used. How many staff are involved on these days? (2 marks) iv. Identify the working day(s) where fewest staff are used. How many staff are involved on these days? (2 marks)
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(b) What happens if Activity A overruns by two days? Draw a complete Gantt chart to illustrate your answer. You may use the blank charts provided. (7 marks) i. How many working days does the project now take, and when does the project finish? Comment on your results. (3 marks) ii. Show how many staff are now required on each working day of the project. (3 marks) iii. Identify the working day(s) where most staff are used. How many staff are involved on these days? (2 marks) iv. Identify the working day(s) where fewest staff are used. How many staff are involved on these days? (2 marks)
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(d) Construct a network diagram for the 10 activities that you have identified in (a) above, using the Activity-on-Arrow convention. You must indicate which activities have to occur in sequence (dependencies), and which can run in parallel, but you do not need to consider the start time or duration of each activity. You must indicate the predecessor of each activity. You may do this either in Table I above, or by a description to accompany your network diagram. (13 marks) (e) You are also working on another conference for a different client. You have specified the duration in days for each activity and constructed the network diagram for the project. (iii) Using Table II and/or Network Diagram I below, calculate the Earliest Event Time (EET) and the Latest Event Time (LET) for the start of each activity, and the float/slack associated with each activity. (10 marks) Identify the critical path based on your calculations. (5 Marks)
(iv)
You may assume that the times are in days, the network diagram is correct in that the activities are in the right order, and the duration is accurate in each case. Note: You may enter the results of your calculations in Table II or on Network Diagram I and attach these pages to your answer booklet. Remember to add your student number, examination hall and seat number in the space provided on these pages. Do not write your name on these pages. Table II Activity A B C D E F G H I J Duration 2 5 3 5 6 8 2 3 2 2 EET LET Float/Slack
24
Network Diagram I 60
H E 6
10
3
70
A 2
20
B 5 C 3
30
40
F 8 G
I 2
80
J 2
90
D 5
50
Note: You may enter the results of your calculations in the Table I or on Network Diagram I and attach these pages to your answer booklet. Remember to add your student number, examination hall and seat number in the space provided. Do not write your name to the answer sheets.
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