L ATI N I FO CUS CONSENSUS FORECAST

Contents
Argentina .................................... 2 Calendar .................................. 1 2 Notes ........................................ 1 3 Order Form .............................. 1 4

July 201 1 December 2010

Publication date: 12 July 2011 Information available: up to and including 10 July Forecasts collected: 4 - 8 July 2011 Next edition: 9 August 2011

Arne Pohlman Chief Economist Gerardo Morn Senior Economist Armando Ciccarelli Senior Economist

Ricardo Aceves Economist Joan Enric Domene Economist Mateusz Reimann Economist

Ricard Torn Economist Joel Bevin Economist

FocusEconomics 2011 ISSN 2013-648X

FOCUSECONOMICS
Economic Forecasts from the Worlds Leading Economists

Gran Via 657 E-08010 Barcelona, Spain Phone: +34 932 651 040 Fax: +34 932 650 804 info@focus-economics.com www.focus-economics.com

FOCUSECONOMICS

Argentina

July 2011

Argentina
Argentina

Outlook improves
On 21 June, President Cristina Fernndez announced that she would seek another four-year term at the next presidential elections, scheduled for 23 October. Fernndez already holds a strong lead over the opposition candidate Ricardo Alfonsn in polls. Analysts believe that Fernndez will secure enough support to win the election without the need for a run-off vote. GDP expanded a strong 9.9% in the first quarter, up from the 9.2% print in Q4 2010. Accordingly, panellists are more upbeat about the countrys growth prospects and have raised their 2011 GDP forecast by 0.3 percentage points over the last month to the current 6.8%. In May, official inflation was unchanged at 9.7% for a third consecutive month. Panellists see official inflation rising to 10.2% by the end of 2011, which is unchanged from last months forecast. That said, panellists see unofficial inflation ending the year at 26.4%, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last months forecast. Armando Ciccarelli
Senior Economist

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages

Population (million): GDP (USD bn): GDP per capita (USD): GDP growth (%): Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): Inflation (%): Current Account (% of GDP): External Debt (% of GDP): 2000-04 37.9 187 4,943 0.4 -0.8 8.3 2.5 103 2005-09 40.2 258 6,404 6.8 1.0 8.8 3.0 47 2010-14 42.3 384 9,080 5.5 -0.9 11.0 0.0 36

POLITICS | President Fernndez announces her bid for re-election On 21 June, President Cristina Fernndez de Kirchner announced her bid for another four-year term in the next presidential elections scheduled on 23 October. Fernndez had hinted during the last months at the possibility of not running for re-election and announced her bid only a few days before the deadline for registering as a candidate expired. Analysts were not surprised by her decision, as they had believed Fernndez would seize the wave of sympathy from the Argentinean people following the death of her husband and former president Nstor Kirchner in October last year. Popular support for Cristina Fernndez has remained strong during the last months, mainly on the back of the positive performance of the Argentinean economy. Fernndez choice of current Economy Minister Amado Boudou as her future vice president suggests that the economy will be the main focus of the electoral campaign, according to political analysts. Moreover, the decision implies a continuation of the strongly interventionist economic policy that has characterized the current Fernndez administration. Surveys conducted before Fernndezs announcement to run for office gave her more than 40% of the vote. The trend remained broadly unchanged in more recent polls, with intentions to vote for Fernndez ranging from 38.3%, according to consulting firm Management & Fit to 49.8%, according to a poll by CEOP-Opinin Pblica. Polls place support for the main opponent Ricardo Alfonsn, of the Radical Civic Union (UCR, Unin Cvica Radical) between 10% and 20%, thus assigning a comfortable lead for the incumbent president. If such a margin is achieved and if Fernndez secures at least 40% of voters support, there would be no need for a run-off vote. According to the electoral law, candidates can win elections directly in the first round if they win either

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast

| 2

FOCUSECONOMICS

Argentina

July 2011

GDP by Type Q1 2011 | variation in %

more than 45% of the vote or 40% of the votes with a 10% advantage over the second most popular candidate.
20.4

Imports

REAL SECTOR | Economic growth accelerates in Q1 In the first quarter, GDP rose 9.9% over the same period the year before. The reading represented an acceleration compared to the 9.2% increase recorded in the previous quarter and beat market analysts expectations of an 8.6% rise. The acceleration was driven by a stronger external sector, while the contribution of the domestic sector to growth deteriorated compared to the previous quarter. Total consumption added 11.1% over the same quarter of the previous year, up from the 10.9% increase recorded in Q4 2010. Meanwhile, gross fixed investment increased 19.5%, a strong result which nonetheless marked a moderation compared to the 24.7% rise in the Q4. Meanwhile, exports of goods and services grew 7.1% (Q4 2010: +7.4%), while imports added 20.4% (Q4: +32.7%). As imports slowed more than exports, the net contribution from the external sector to overall growth improved from minus 3.1 percentage points in Q4 to minus 1.9 percentage points in Q1.

Investment

19.5

Domestic Demand

11.2

Total Consumption

11.1

GDP

9.9

Exports 5.0

7.1 10.0 15.0 20.0 % 25.0

Note: Year-on-year changes in %. Source: Ministry of Economy and FocusEconomics calculations.

Economic Activity | variation in %

3.0 10.0

2.04 1.71 1.5 % 0.22 0.0 4.0 MoM s.a. (left scale) Annual average (right scale) -1.5 -1.17 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2.0 1.32 1.41 0.74 0.11 8.0

At the sector level, the improvement was driven by the agricultural sector, which accelerated from 10.6% growth in Q4 to 12.2% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, industry expanded 10.9%, up from the 9.0% rise in the fourth quarter. Finally, services increased 8.7% (Q4: +8.2% yoy). A quarter-on-quarter analysis corroborates the positive result seen in annual figures, as GDP expanded 2.82% over the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted terms, broadly in line with the 2.97% registered in the fourth quarter. The Central Bank sees the economy growing 6.5% this year. Consensus Forecast panellists see the economy growing 6.8% this year, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last months forecast, while in 2012, they expect the economy to grow 4.4%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last months forecast. REAL SECTOR | Economic growth eases in April In April, the monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Econmica) added 7.1% over the same month the previous year. The figure was down from the 8.7% increase recorded in March and slightly below market analysts expectations of a 7.4% rise.

0.56 0.50 0.44

0.64 0.64

6.0 %

Note: Economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Economica), seasonally-adjusted monthly variation and annual average growth rate in %. Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics calculations.

Consumer Confidence
70

60

A month-on-month comparison fails to corroborate the moderation seen in the annual figures. The economy expanded 0.74% over the previous month in seasonally adjusted terms, which was above the 0.11% increase recorded in March. OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence stable in June In June, the consumer confidence index, published by the Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) reached 55.7 points, virtually unchanged from the 55.6 points recorded in May. At the current level, consumer sentiment remains above the 50-point threshold separating optimism from pessimism. The sub-index relative to the general economic situation remained broadly unchanged compared to May, while the component relative to the personal financial situation improved more substantially. Despite the improvement in

Points

50

40

30 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11

Note: Monthly consumer confidence index, 50-point threshold indicates equal amount of positive and negative responses. Source: Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT).

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast

| 3

FOCUSECONOMICS

Argentina

July 2011

this subcomponent, households expressed a lower willingness to make durable goods purchases compared to the previous month. Accordingly, Consensus Forecast panellists see total consumption growing 8.0% this year, which is up 0.8 percentage points from last months forecast. For 2012, panellists see consumption growing 4.5%, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last months forecast. MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation remains stable in May In May, consumer prices rose 0.74% over the previous month, below the 0.84% price increase registered in April and in line with the 0.75% increase tallied in May last year. As a result, annual headline inflation remained stable for a third consecutive month at 9.7%, which represents the lowest level since March 2010.
12.0 Monthly (left scale) Annual (right scale) 0.85 0.80 0.80 % 0.75 0.75 0.73 0.74 0.72 0.73 0.73 % 10.0 0.74 0.74 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 11.0

Inflation | Consumer Price Index

0.90

Consensus Forecast panellists see official inflation at 10.2% by the end of this year, which is unchanged from last months estimate. Next year, participants estimate official inflation will jump to 14.0%. Official inflation data published by the National Statistics Institute (INDEC) continues to be met with suspicion ever since a controversial change in the methodology to measure price variations was implemented two years ago. Allegations that INDEC data may be manipulated by the government have been repeatedly denied by the local authorities. Against this backdrop, official inflation figures remain well below independent analysts estimates. Currently, independent analysts estimate consumer prices to increase 26.4% this year and 26.9% in 2012. Consumers share the more realistic assessment of inflation made by private analysts. According to a survey from Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) conducted in June, households believe that consumer prices will increase 25% over the next 12 months, which was in line with results from Mays survey. EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports rise to pre-crisis peak in May

0.70 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

9.0

Note: Annual and monthly var. of consumer price index in %. Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC).

Merchandise Trade | USD billion

10 Trade Balance Exports Imports

In May, exports rose 23.7% over the same month the year before, which was above the 12.0% expansion observed in April and marked the 14th consecutive month of double-digit growth in exports. With the May reading, exports rose to pre-crisis levels. In May, the moving 3month sum of exports reached USD 21.3 billion, matching the September 2008 peak. A month-on-month comparison corroborates the year-on-year result, as exports expanded 7.4% on a seasonally-adjusted basis, which contrasted the 1.9% drop recorded in April. Meanwhile, imports grew 39.1% annually in May, up from the 37.8% expansion registered in April. As a consequence of booming exports, the trade surplus widened from USD 1.3 billion in April to USD 1.7 billion in May. Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate exports will expand 17.8% this year. Next year, the panel expects exports to grow 9.7%.

0
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11

Note: Monthly exports, imports and trade balance in USD billion. Source: Argentina Central Bank.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast

| 4

FOCUSECONOMICS
Economic Indicators | 2006 - 2015
Annual Data Real Sector Population (million) GDP per capita (USD) GDP (USD bn) Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) Total Consumption (annual variation in %) Private Consumption (ann. var. in %) Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) Total Investment (annual variation in %) Industrial Production (annual variation in %) Unemployment (eop, % of active population) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of MB in %) Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) Central Bank 30-59 days dep. rate in %, eop Stock Market (MERVAL variation in %) Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, average) External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Exports (annual variation in %) Imports (annual variation in %) International Reserves (USD bn) International Reserves (months of imports) External Debt (USD bn) External Debt (% of GDP) Quarterly Data Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. in %) Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) Total Consumption (annual variation in %) Total Investment (annual variation in %) Industrial Production (annual variation in %) Unemployment (eop, % of active population) Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) Central Bank 30-59 days dep. rate in %, eop Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, average) Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Monthly Data Economic Activity (EMAE, annual var. in %) Industrial Production (annual variation in %) Cons. Confidence Index (50-point threshold) Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 2006 39.7 5,357 213 8.5 9.2 7.4 7.8 5.2 18.2 8.4 8.7 1.7 37.6 9.8 3.74 35.5 3.07 3.07 3.6 7.8 12.4 46.5 34.2 15.3 19.1 32.0 11.3 109 51.1 Q3 10 8.6 0.6 11.6 8.8 26.6 9.3 7.5 11.1 9.6 3.95 3.94 0.9 0.9 2.9 18.7 15.8 Sep-10 8.7 10.1 48.8 0.72 11.1 3.95 2007 40.2 6,490 261 8.7 9.9 8.8 9.0 7.6 13.6 7.6 7.5 1.0 25.4 8.5 10.3 2.9 3.15 3.12 2.8 7.4 11.3 56.0 44.7 20.3 30.9 46.2 12.4 125 47.8 Q4 10 9.2 3.0 11.8 10.9 24.7 10.6 7.3 10.9 10.1 3.98 3.90 -0.4 -0.4 1.4 17.3 15.9 Oct-10 7.4 8.4 50.1 0.84 11.1 3.96

Argentina

July 2011

2008 40.6 8,060 327 6.8 7.6 6.6 6.5 6.9 9.1 5.0 7.3 1.4 10.5 7.2 15.1 -49.8 3.45 3.15 2.1 6.8 12.6 70.0 57.5 25.1 28.5 46.4 9.7 125 38.2 Q1 11 9.9 2.8 11.2 11.1 19.5 9.2 7.4 9.7 10.0 4.04 3.83 -0.1 -0.7 1.8 17.1 15.3 Nov-10 10.1 12.8 55.4 0.73 11.0 3.97

2009 41.1 7,482 307 0.9 -1.6 1.5 0.5 7.2 -10.2 0.1 8.4 -0.6 11.5 7.7 9.39 115 3.80 3.73 3.6 11.1 16.9 55.7 38.8 -20.5 -32.5 48.0 14.8 116 37.9 Q2 11 6.7 8.4 8.3 12.6 7.0 7.1 9.9 10.6 4.10 4.08 1.5 1.5 3.4 21.6 17.7 Dec-10 10.1 10.5 53.2 0.84 10.9 3.98

2010 41.5 8,927 370 9.2 11.7 9.1 9.0 9.4 21.2 9.8 7.3 0.2 33.8 10.9 10.1 51.8 3.98 3.90 0.8 3.1 11.6 68.1 56.5 22.4 45.7 52.1 11.1 129 34.7 Q3 11 6.7 8.4 8.4 9.6 5.7 7.4 9.8 11.3 4.18 4.14 0.1 0.1 1.5 21.2 19.4 Jan-11 10.9 10.3 55.7 0.73 10.6 3.98

2011 41.9 9,193 385 6.8 8.6 8.0 11.6 6.3 7.3 -1.0 10.2 11.9 4.30 4.14 0.2 0.7 8.3 80.2 72.0 17.8 27.4 49.6 8.3 132 34.1 Q4 11 5.5 7.7 6.7 9.5 5.9 7.3 10.2 11.9 4.30 4.24 -0.8 -0.7 0.2 20.8 19.9 Feb-11 10.2 8.9 54.0 0.74 10.0 4.02

2012 42.3 9,471 401 4.4 4.8 4.5 9.0 4.9 7.4 -1.2 14.0 14.1 4.97 4.63 -0.3 -1.2 5.8 88.0 82.2 9.7 14.2 49.4 7.2 138 34.4 Q1 12 4.9 5.3 4.9 6.8 6.0 7.9 11.0 12.8 4.55 4.43 -1.0 -0.9 1.8 19.8 17.8 Mar-11 8.7 8.4 57.4 0.84 9.7 4.04

2013 42.7 9,209 393 3.3 4.3 3.2 6.0 4.4 7.9 -1.3 10.1 14.3 5.92 5.44 -0.1 -0.3 8.3 95.0 89.5 7.9 8.9 49.0 6.6 143 36.2 Q2 12 4.4 4.7 4.8 6.4 5.5 7.5 12.1 13.3 4.82 4.69 1.6 1.6 3.7 23.8 20.1 Apr-11 7.1 8.2 54.4 0.8 9.7 4.07

2014 43.1 8,601 371 3.6 5.0 3.7 6.0 4.1 7.8 -1.2 10.0 16.3 7.20 6.56 -0.8 -2.8 8.4 102.2 96.9 7.6 8.3 50.2 6.2 141 38.1 Q3 12 4.6 5.3 5.1 6.7 5.3 7.4 13.0 13.7 4.86 4.84 -0.5 -0.5 1.2 23.5 22.4 May-11 9.2 55.6 0.7 9.7 4.08

2015 43.5 8,498 370 3.7 5.2 4.1 6.3 3.8 7.7 -0.9 10.8 16.4 7.82 7.51 -1.0 -3.5 9.2 108.8 104.0 6.4 7.3 53.5 6.2 146 39.5 Q4 12 4.2 5.6 5.3 6.2 5.0 7.4 14.0 14.1 4.97 4.91 -1.3 -1.3 0.3 23.1 22.8 Jun-11 55.7 4.10

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast

| 5

FOCUSECONOMICS
Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product
1 | Real GDP | 1990 - 2015 | % variation
20

Argentina

July 2011

2 | Real GDP | Q1 08-Q4 12 | % var.

15
Argentina Latin America World

10

10

-10
Argentina Latin America World

-20 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

-5 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12

3 | GDP 2011 | evolution of forecasts

12

4 | GDP 2012 | evolution of forecasts

12
Maximum Consensus Minimum

8
8

4
4

Maximum Consensus Minimum

-4 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May

0 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May

5 | Consumption | % variation
20

6 | Investment | % variation
40

Real GDP growth in % Individual Forecasts Banco de Galicia Banco Rio - Santander BBVA Banco Francs BofA Merrill Lynch C&T Asesores Econmicos Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank Estudio Bein & Asociados Fundacin Capital Goldman Sachs HSBC JPMorgan LCG Nomura OJF & Asociados RBC Capital Markets UBS Unin Industrial Argentina Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Additional Forecasts IMF (Jun. 2011) World Bank (Jun. 2011) Central Bank (May 2011)

2011 6.5 7.0 5.5 8.0 5.9 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.7 8.0 7.0 7.8 8.0 4.9 6.7 5.4 6.4 4.9 8.0 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.1 5.7 6.0 6.3 6.5

2012 6.5 4.0 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.5 3.3 4.5 4.1 3.2 5.0 4.8 5.1 4.0 4.1 6.1 4.4 4.8 3.2 6.5 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.6 4.2 -

10

20

Notes and sources

General: Long-term chart period from 1990 to 2015 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadsticas) and the Ministry of Economy (MECON, Ministerio de Economa y Produccin). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
2005 2010 2015

-10
Argentina Latin America

-20
Argentina Latin America

-20 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

-40 1990 1995 2000

7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst

10
2011 2012

8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts

15
2011 2012

12

2 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May

3 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May

1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: MECON. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %. Source: MECON. 3 GDP, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. 4 GDP, evolution of 2012 forecasts during the last 18 months. 5 Total consumption, annual variation in %. Source: MECON. 6 Gross investment, annual variation in %. Source: MECON. 7 Total consumption, change in 2011 and 2012 forecasts during the last 18 months. 8 Gross investment, change in 2011 and 2012 forecasts during the last 18 months. 9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: INDEC. 10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INDEC. 11 Balance of non-financial public sector, % of GDP. 1995-2015. Source: MECON. 12 Industrial production, evolution of 2011 and 2012 forecasts during the last 18 months. 13 Unemployment, evolution of 2011 and 2012 forecasts during the last 18 months. 14 Balance of non-financial public sector, evolution of 2011 and 2012 forecasts during the last 18 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast

| 6

FOCUSECONOMICS
Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Consumption % variation 2011 2012 6.9 8.2 4.6 6.9 4.7 9.8 2.8 6.9 3.4 8.4 4.8 7.9 4.5 8.2 3.9 8.7 4.7 7.3 4.0 11.1 6.1 7.5 6.1 8.1 5.0 8.6 5.8 4.9 3.1 8.2 4.0 4.9 11.1 8.1 8.0 7.2 7.0 6.6 2.8 6.1 4.6 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.9

Argentina

July 2011

Individual Forecasts Banco de Galicia Banco Rio - Santander BBVA Banco Francs BofA Merrill Lynch C&T Asesores Econmicos Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank Estudio Bein & Asociados Fundacin Capital Goldman Sachs HSBC JPMorgan LCG Nomura OJF & Asociados RBC Capital Markets UBS Unin Industrial Argentina Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago

Investment % variation 2011 2012 14.2 14.5 22.0 8.9 5.3 11.2 10.0 7.9 1.6 10.6 7.5 9.1 4.2 11.1 8.0 11.4 7.0 12.7 5.0 15.3 14.4 13.7 10.0 17.1 9.3 4.3 9.0 12.0 12.0 4.3 17.1 11.4 11.6 10.6 9.5 8.7 1.6 22.0 8.5 9.0 8.7 9.1 8.9

Industry % variation 2011 2012 7.5 6.5 5.2 4.3 4.6 3.5 6.5 5.4 5.4 4.9 8.0 5.2 6.9 4.3 7.3 6.2 4.3 8.0 6.5 6.3 6.6 6.4 5.7 3.5 6.2 5.2 4.9 5.4 5.3 5.0

Unemployment % of active pop. 2011 2012 7.5 7.0 6.8 7.2 7.1 7.4 8.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.5 7.0 6.6 7.8 7.7 6.7 7.1 7.5 7.8 7.9 7.9 6.7 7.9 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 6.6 8.0 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.5

Fiscal Balance % of GDP 2011 2012 -0.2 -0.7 -1.2 -1.2 -1.5 -1.4 -1.8 -0.7 -0.9 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -1.0 -1.6 -3.0 -0.2 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5 -0.5 -1.3 -0.8 0.8 1.0 -2.0 0.8 -1.2 -1.0 -1.1 -1.5 -1.5 -3.0 1.0 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2

9 | Industry | % variation
20

10 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

30
Argentina Latin America

11 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

5

10

20
0

10
-10
Argentina Latin America

-5
Argentina Latin America World

-20 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

-10 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

12 | Industry | evolution of forecasts

7
2011 2012

13 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst

10
2011 2012

14 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst

0.0
2011 2012

6 9 5

-0.5

-1.0 8

-1.5

3 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May

7 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May

-2.0 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast

| 7

FOCUSECONOMICS

Argentina

July 2011

Monetary Sector | Inflation, Money, Wholesale Prices and Stock Market

15 | Inflation | 1995 - 2015 | in %
60
Argentina Latin America

16 | Inflation | Q1 08-Q4 12 | in %
16
Argentina Latin America

Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in %

40

12

20

8
0

-20 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

4 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12

17 | Inflation 2011 | evolution of fcst

16

18 | Inflation 2012 | evolution of fcst

40
Maximum Consensus Minimum

30

12
20

8
Maximum Consensus Minimum

10

4 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May

0 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May

19 | Wholesale Prices | % var.

150

20 | Money | % variation
180

Individual Forecasts Banco de Galicia Banco Rio - Santander BBVA Banco Francs BofA Merrill Lynch C&T Asesores Econmicos Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank Estudio Bein & Asociados Fundacin Capital Goldman Sachs HSBC JPMorgan LCG Nomura OJF & Asociados RBC Capital Markets UBS Unin Industrial Argentina Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago Additional Forecasts IMF (Apr. 2011)

2011 10.0 9.1 9.5 9.8 9.8 9.6 9.5 10.0 9.8 11.0 9.8 10.9 15.0 9.2 9.1 15.0 9.8 10.2 10.2 10.3 11.1

2012 13.0 10.0 15.0 15.2 10.5 10.0 13.2 15.0 9.3 10.8 22.0 24.0 9.3 24.0 13.1 14.0 14.2 14.6 14.1

11.0

11.0

100

120

50

60

Notes and sources

-50 1995 1999 2003 2007 -60 1995 1999 2003 2007

21 | Sovereign Spreads (EMBI+)

8,000 Argentina EMBI + Latin 6,000

22 | Stock Market | MERVAL

4,000

General: Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2015 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadsticas) and the Central Bank (BCRA, Banco Central de la Repblica Argentina). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 15 Inflation, annual variation in consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). Source: INDEC. 16 Quarterly inflation, year-on-year variation in consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). Source: INDEC. 17 Inflation, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. 18 Inflation, evolution of 2012 forecasts during the last 18 months. 19 Wholesale prices, annual variation in % (eop). 1995-2010. Source: INDEC. 20 Money, annual variation of monetary base in %. 1995-2010. Source: BCRA. 21 Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI+), basis spoint spread over US Treasuries. Source: JPMorgan. January 2000 until end of previous quarter. 22 Daily index levels. Source: MERVAL (Mercado de Valores de Buenos Aires). January 2008 until end of previous month.

3,000

4,000

2,000

2,000

1,000

0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast

| 8

FOCUSECONOMICS
Monetary Sector | Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
23 | Interest Rate | 1995 - 2015 | in %
40
Argentina Latin America

Argentina

July 2011

24 | Interest Rate | Q1 08-Q4 12 | in %

18
Argentina Latin America

30

15

20

12

10

0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

6 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12

25 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst

20
Maximum Consensus Minimum

26 | Int. Rate 2012 | evolution of fcst

20
Maximum Consensus Minimum

16

16

12

12

8 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May

8 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May

Benchmark Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Interest Rate Exchange Rate % ARS per USD Individual Forecasts 2011 2012 2011 2012 Banco de Galicia 12.0 4.25 Banco Rio - Santander 13.0 17.0 4.19 4.80 BBVA Banco Francs 12.5 16.0 4.30 4.96 BofA Merrill Lynch 4.35 5.00 C&T Asesores Econmicos 4.39 5.70 4.50 6.00 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Credit Suisse 4.25 4.40 Deutsche Bank 4.28 5.13 Estudio Bein & Asociados 10.8 15.0 4.24 4.74 Fundacin Capital 11.0 13.0 4.35 5.00 Goldman Sachs 4.35 5.10 HSBC 13.6 13.1 4.15 4.54 JPMorgan 4.35 4.50 LCG 10.6 13.3 4.29 4.68 Nomura 12.0 11.0 4.40 4.50 OJF & Asociados 4.34 5.65 RBC Capital Markets 4.15 4.30 UBS 4.25 5.50 Unin Industrial Argentina Summary Minimum 10.6 11.0 4.15 4.30 Maximum 13.6 17.0 4.50 6.00 Median 12.0 13.3 4.29 4.96 Consensus 11.9 14.1 4.30 4.97 History 30 days ago 12.0 14.0 4.28 5.00 60 days ago 11.9 14.4 4.28 5.04 90 days ago 11.8 14.0 4.27 5.05

27 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD

8

28 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD

6

5
4

Notes and sources

4

0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

3 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12

General: Long-term chart period from 1990 to 2015 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are fromthe National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadsticas) and the Central Bank (BCRA, Banco Central de la Republica Argentina). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 23 Interest rate, Central Bank 30-59 days deposits rate in % (eop). 1995-2015. Source: BCRA. 24 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank 30-59 days deposits rate in % (eop). Source: BCRA. 25 Interest rate, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months. Source: INDEC. 26 Interest rate, evolution of 2012 forecasts during the last 18 months. Source: INDEC. 27 Exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop). Source: BCRA. 28 Quarterly exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop). Source: BCRA. 29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2011 forecast during the last 18 months. 30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2012 forecast during the last 18 months. 31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: INDEC. 32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: INDEC 33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: INDEC. 34 Current account in USD bn., evolution of 2011 and 2012 forecast during the last 18 months. 35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: INDEC. 36 External debt as % of GDP. Source: INDEC.

29 | ARS per USD 2011 | evolution of fcst

7
Maximum Consensus Minimum

30 | ARS per USD 2012 | evolution of fcst

7

Maximum Consensus Minimum

3 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May

3 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast

| 9

FOCUSECONOMICS

Argentina

July 2011

External Sector | Current Account, Trade and International Reserves

Current Account USD bn 2011 2012 -3.0 0.9 0.0 0.9 -3.6 -0.3 -1.9 0.6 2.1 -0.6 3.8 2.8 2.1 1.1 -3.8 0.4 -4.6 0.9 -0.7 -0.9 -0.5 -0.3 -2.2 -3.4 -14.6 2.7 -3.2 5.7 5.1 4.7 4.5 3.6 3.8 -2.5 -6.0 -3.4 5.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.2 -14.6 5.1 -0.7 -1.2 -1.4 -1.7 -1.1 Trade Balance USD bn 2011 2012 8.3 9.0 5.5 6.0 0.5 9.0 6.9 9.2 9.5 5.7 9.7 7.8 3.0 8.5 3.5 9.6 8.5 8.8 9.1 8.7 6.5 7.7 -1.5 8.8 3.1 10.2 10.0 6.5 3.2 8.2 9.9 5.7 10.2 8.6 8.3 9.3 9.4 9.6 -1.5 10.0 6.5 5.8 7.2 7.1 7.9 Exports USD bn 2011 2012 81.8 79.5 92.2 79.9 83.7 79.7 86.1 81.3 89.7 81.1 99.0 81.4 88.4 81.6 89.7 81.8 94.1 77.7 81.9 78.6 85.1 77.7 82.4 81.4 86.8 83.1 91.3 78.8 82.7 78.5 87.3 77.7 83.1 80.5 80.2 80.4 79.9 79.6 81.9 99.0 87.3 88.0 88.2 87.1 86.9 Imports USD bn 2011 2012 73.5 70.5 86.7 73.8 83.2 70.7 79.2 72.1 80.2 75.4 89.4 73.6 85.4 73.1 86.2 72.2 85.6 68.9 72.8 69.9 78.6 70.0 83.9 72.7 83.6 72.8 81.4 72.2 79.5 70.3 77.3 68.9 75.4 72.2 72.0 71.1 70.4 69.9 72.8 89.4 83.2 82.2 81.0 79.9 79.0 Int. Reserves USD bn 2011 2012 50.0 53.0 55.2 49.1 47.9 51.0 48.8 49.0 49.8 50.2 52.0 52.0 47.2 42.2 48.0 51.0 50.5 43.5 48.0 49.0 49.6 46.2 51.9 46.9 50.7 43.9 48.2 61.8 47.2 53.0 49.6 49.6 50.6 51.2 50.5 42.2 61.8 49.0 49.4 51.4 51.5 51.4

Individual Forecasts Banco de Galicia Banco Rio - Santander BBVA Banco Francs BofA Merrill Lynch C&T As es ores Econm icos Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Credit Suis s e Deutsche Bank Es tudio Bein & As ociados Fundacin Capital Goldm an Sachs HSBC JPMorgan LCG Nom ura OJF & As ociados RBC Capital Markets UBS Unin Industrial Argentina Summary Minim um Maxim um Median Consensus History 30 days ago 60 days ago 90 days ago

31 | Current Account | % of GDP

12
Argentina Latin America

32 | Trade Balance | USD billion

120
Trade Balance Imports Exports

33 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

30
Argentina Latin America

90

20 4 60

30 10

-4

-8 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

-30 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

34 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

8

35 | Exports | annual variation in %

45
Argentina Latin America

36 | External Debt | % of GDP

200
Argentina Latin America

30
4

160

15

120

0
0

80

2011 2012

-15

40

-4 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May

-30 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast

| 10

FOCUSECONOMICS
Fact Sheet
General Data

Argentina

July 2011

Argentina in the Region

Official name: Capital: Other cities:

Argentine Republic Buenos Aires (14.2 m) Crdoba (1.3 m) Rosario (0.9 m) 2,766,890 41.1

Population | %-share in Latin America

Argentina 8%

GDP | %-share in Latin America

Argentina 8%

Area (km2): Population (million, 2009 est.): Population density (per km2, 2009 est.) Population growth rate (%, 2009 est.): Life expectancy (years, 2009 est.): Illiteracy rate (%, 2001): Language: Measures: Time:

Other 37% Brazil 35%

Other 26%

14.8
1.1 75.3 2.8 Spanish Metric system 3 hours behind GMT

Brazil 44% Mexico 22% Mexico 20%

Economic Infrastructure

Economic Structure
GDP by Sector | share in %
100% 2005
5.7 18.2

Telecommunication (2009) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants):
Energy (2007) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): Oil Supply (thousand bpd): Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons):
Transportation (2009) Airports: Railways (km): Roadways (km): Waterways (km): Chief Ports:
Political Data

24.2 129 30.4 8.8

GDP by Expenditure | share in %

100%

2010
4.9 17.2 5.7 13.3 Construction 12.6 Commerce Manufacturing and mining Agriculture and Fishing

75%

75%

5.8 12.6

50%

3,650 3,204 110 99.2 799 562 166.7

50%

13.8

25%

0%

25%

Real Estate 43.8 46.4

-25%

Other Services

2004

2006

2008

2010

Private Consumption

Government Consumption Net Exports

0%

Investment

1,130 31,409 231,374 11,000 Buenos Aires, Bahia Blanca

Trade Structure
Primary markets | share in %
Other 7%
Latin America 37% China 12% Asia (ex China) 6% EU-27 20% USA 8%

Other 17%

China 12% Asia (ex China) 5% Latin America 41%

President: Last elections: Next elections: Central Bank President:

Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings

Cristina Fernndez 28 October 2007 23 October 2011 Mercedes Marc Del Pont

Exports

Imports

EU-27 19% USA 16%

Agency Moodys: S&P: Fitch Ratings:

Rating B3 B B

Outlook Stable Stable Stable

Primary products | share in %

Industrial Manufactur ing 35%

Other 27%
Primary Goods 22%

Strengths

Weaknesses

Intermedi ate Goods 35%

Well educated labor force Rich in natural resources Competitive exchange rate

Unorthodox economic policy Vulnerability to external shocks Limited access to international financial markets
Agricultural Manufactur ing 34%

Exports

Imports
Fuels 8%
Consumer Goods 11%

Fuels 9%

Capital Goods 22%

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast

| 11

FOCUSECONOMICS
Economic Release Calendar
Date 12 July 12 July 12 July 13 July 14 July 14 July 14 July 15 July 18 July 18 July 20 July 20 July 20 July 21 July 21 July 22 July 22 July 25 July 26 July 26 July 26 July 27 July 28 July 28 July 29 July 29 July 1 August 1 August 1 August 2 August 2 August 3 August 3 August 4 August 5 August 5 August 5 August 5 August 6 August 8 August 8 August Country Brazil Mexico Uruguay Ecuador Argentina C hile C hile Peru Argentina Brazil Brazil Brazil Peru Argentina Mexico Argentina C olombia Ecuador Brazil C olombia Mexico Mexico Argentina C hile Brazil C olombia Mexico Paraguay Peru Brazil Uruguay Brazil Mexico Mexico Brazil C hile Ecuador Peru Venezuela C hile C hile Event May Retail Sales May Industrial Production May Industrial Production May Economic Activity June C onsumer Prices C entral Bank Meeting C entral Bank Meeting May Economic Activity (IMAE) May Economic Activity (EMAE) May Economic Activity (**) C entral Bank Meeting July C onsumer Prices (IPC A-15) June Unemployment July C onsumer C onfidence June Unemployment June Merchandise Trade May Industrial Production June C onsumer C onfidence July C onsumer C onfidence May Merchandise Trade June Merchandise Trade (*) May Economic Activity (IGAE) June Industrial Production June Unemployment July Business C onfidence (**) C entral Bank Meeting June Remittances July C onsumer Prices July C onsumer Prices June Industrial Production July C onsumer Prices June Producer Prices July Business C onfidence July C onsumer C onfidence July C onsumer Prices June Economic Activity (IMAC EC ) July C onsumer Prices June Merchandise Trade July C onsumer Prices July C onsumer Prices July Merchandise Trade

July 2011

Notes: (*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast

| 12

FOCUSECONOMICS
Notes and Statements PUBLICATION NOTE Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels. The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries: Latin America (20 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela. Andean Community (4 countries): Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. Central America (7 countries): Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama, Mercosur (5 countries): Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela. Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates. COPYRIGHT NOTE

July 2011

Copyright 2011 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions. The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows: FocusEconomics S.L. Gran Via 657 E-08010 Barcelona Spain tel: +34 932 651 040 fax: +34 932 650 804 e-mail: info@focus-economics.com web: http://www.focus-economics.com

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast (Forecast) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panellists (Information Providers) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast

| 13

FOCUSECONOMICS

Order Form

July 2011

Please complete the information below and return it to FocusEconomics either by Please note the address should be the billing address of the cardholder in the case of credit card payments.

fax,

email

or

mail.

CONTACT INFORMATION
Title: Mr Ms Last Name: E-mail: Department:

First Name: Position/Job title: Organisation/Company: Address: City: Country: Telephone:

Postal Code:

Fax:

ORDER
PDF Single Country Edition Single copy ( 50) Annual subscription ( 195): Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Venezuela Full Country Edition Single copy ( 120) Annual subscription: 1 User ( 590) 2-5 Users ( 890) 6-10 Users ( 1,290) 11-20 Users ( 1,990) 21-50 Users ( 2,990) Corporate License ( 4,490) PDF and Excel Full Country Edition Annual subscription: 1 User ( 990) 2-5 Users ( 1,490) 6-10 Users ( 2,190) 11-20 Users ( 3,290) 21-50 Users ( 4,990) Corporate License ( 7,490)

PAYMENT INFORMATION
Credit card: American Express Mastercard Visa

Cardholder Name: Card Number: Expiration Date:____/____ Cheque: Wire Transfer: Please send cheque to address below. Instructions
Bank: Openbank Santander Consumer S.A. IBAN: ES36 0073 0100 5004 0714 0338 BIC/SWIFT: OPENESMM Beneficiary: FocusEconomics S.L. Bank Address: Plaza de Manuel Gmez Moreno, 2 E-28020 Madrid, Spain

Delivery will be by email in Adobe PDF format unless otherwise requested. For first class mail delivery or fax service, please contact: FocusEconomics | Gran Via 657 | E-08010 Barcelona | Spain Tel: +34 93 265 10 40 Fax: +34 93 265 08 04 Email: subscribers@focus-economics.com

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast

| 14