Escolar Documentos
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Mar k et s
Si r Gor don Conw ay ,
Pr of essor of I nt er nat i onal
Devel opment ,
Agr i cul t ur e f or I mpact ,
I mper i al Col l ege London
Gl obal Donor Pl at f or m f or
Rur al Dev el opment AGA,
The Net her l ands,
Januar y 31
st
, 2013
Recurring food price spikes
About 1 billion people
(1 in 6 of the worlds population)
are chronically hungry
We have to increase food production by
70-100% by 2050
St unt i ng l i nk ed t o over 3.5 m deat hs under f i v es
St unt i ng has l ar gel y i r r ever si bl e l ong- t er m
ef f ect s on heal t h and dev el opment
DEMAND
Ri si ng
popul at i ons
Ri si ng per
capi t a
i ncomes
Gr ow i ng
demand f or
l i v est ock
pr oduct s
Gr ow i ng
demand f or
bi of uel s
SUPPLY
I mpact of
cl i mat e
change
I ncr easi ng
w at er &
l and scar ci t y
Sl ow i ng of
pr oduct i v i t y
i ncr eases
Ri si ng f uel &
f er t i l i ser
pr i ces
spi k es
CONTRI BUTE
TO HUNGER
Meat consumpt i on r i ses
w i t h per capi t a i ncome
Ri se i n Meat Consumpt i on
Source: FAO,
2009
World 8unk, zoo. World
LevelomenL lndlcuLors
Aver age
Annual Max
Temp > 30
0
C
5ource: Ericksen et a| Mapping hotspots of c|imate change and food insecurity in the g|oba|
tropics
Russi a
Sever e heat w ave i n 2010
Doubl ed Moscow s deat h
r at e
30% of gr ai n cr ops l ost t o bur ni ng
Pak i st an
Wor st f l oods i n 80 y ear s
Ki l l ed over 1600 peopl e
Submer ged 1/ 5t h of t he count r y , i ncl udi ng
14% of Pak i st an s cul t i vat ed l and
FOOO
5ECURITY
POLITICAL
LEAOER5HIP
INNOVATION
MARkET5
PEOPLE
Mr s. Namar unda
Survival line
Months
P
o
t
e
n
t
i
a
l
h
a
r
v
e
s
t
(
t
o
n
s
/
h
a
)
1
2
3
2 3 1 4
I nsec ur e Far m
Weeds
Pests
Drought
Ther e i s not much mor e new
ar abl e l and avai l abl e
We hav e t o i nt ensi f y
Mor e w i t h Less
Gr eat er pr oduct i vi t y but smal l er
envi r onment al f oot pr i nt
I ncr eased y i el ds or pr oduct i on
On t he same amount of l and
Wi t h l ess w at er
Less f er t i l i ser s
Less pest i ci des
Low er emi ssi ons of Gr eenhouse Gases
I ncr eased nat ur al capi t al
& envi r onment al ser vi ces
Gr eat er r esi l i ence
Use ecol ogi cal pr i nci pl es t o
desi gn agr i cul t ur al pr act i ces
e.g.
- Agr of or est r y
- I nt egr at ed Pest
Management ( I PM)
- Or gani c f ar mi ng
z-q tonnes C jha
Pl ant s mor e nut r i t i ous
car bohy dr at e & pr ot ei n
mi cr onut r i ent s ( Vi t A, i r on, zi nc)
Pl ant s mor e r esi l i ent t o
pest s and di seases
cl i mat e change
Pl ant s mor e ef f i ci ent at
conver t i ng sunl i ght t o f ood
t ak i ng up ni t r ogen f r om t he at mospher e
usi ng w at er
Mont y Jones
$500 mi l l i on l osses
a y ear i n Uganda
Academi a Si ni ca
pr ovi ded sw eet
pot at o gene
Successf ul l y
t r ansf er r ed t o
bananas
I n Ugandan f i el d
t r i al s
Ent i r el y
gover nment f unded