Running Head: THE INTERNET & POLITICAL PARTICIPATION

The Internets Effects Upon Political Participation & Political Knowledge Harrison B. Bryant Dr. Gordon Chapman University 12 09 - 2010

Author Note Correspondence concerning this paper should be addressed to Harrison B. Bryant, Chapman University, One University Dr. #2141, Orange, CA 92866. Email: bryan123@mail.chapman.edu.

THE INTERNET & POLITICAL PARTICIPATION

Abstract

This article investigates what effect the internet is having and has had upon our present-day society. Specifically, we focus upon the informational use of the internet and its effects upon political participation and civic engagement. We also analyze data to see if there is any association between political knowledge and internet usage for informational purposes. Because the number of internet users in the United States has reached a level of stability not before seen, this research is able to make conclusive findings concerning these effects. Analyzing the 2008 National Election Study data, we have discovered significant findings which show a positive effect of the internet upon political participation.

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A Review of the Literature

During the past two decades, internet usage within the United States has completely skyrocketed. In 1990, less than 1% of the entire U.S. population was connected or had access to the World Wide Web. This percentage grew rapidly during the turn of the millennium and continued to grow throughout the years that followed. More recently, in 2008, nearly 76% of the population was connected online; and as of 2010, almost 78% of the United States has access to the internet (World Bank, World Development Indicators). Also, these percentages only include the number of Americans subscribing to an internet service in their home; they do not even begin to touch upon the millions of Americans who are now able to access the internet via their cell phones or in public places such as libraries (U.S. Census Bureau). It is clear that the internet has now become a staple of American society, especially among the generation that has grown up with it. It has experienced an adoption rate so incredibly large that it comes close to outdoing the adoption rate of television. In short, it has almost completely infiltrated its way into the everyday tasks of nearly every American. This immense rise in the importance of the internet to the average American brings many questions along with it. It begs the question what effect is the internet having upon American society? Many researchers in the past decade have also taken on the task of addressing what has come and what will come of the increased usage in internet among the general population. The nature of the internet, though, is one of change; the fact that is continually changing and constantly utilized in different ways illustrates this (Shah, Kwak, & Holbert, 2001). With internet usage rates growing exponentially, it is important to frequently reassess the question of effect in

THE INTERNET & POLITICAL PARTICIPATION order to see if the answer remains the same (Xenos & Moy, 2007). For example, many of the most-widely cited articles and essays that address the topic of the internets effects on American

society were written prior to or during the rapid rise in internet usage (see especially: Katz, Rice, & Aspden, 2001). These early studies were limited for many reasons. For example, several of the studies lacked a good supply of data to work with (Tolbert & McNeal, 2003). They were limited to only a few sources of data, such as the 1996 National Election Study; and even then, they were still limited simply because of the rapidly changing landscape of the internet population. Internet usage since that time has increased by almost 35% and the population of internet users has been stabilizing at just above the 75% mark. It is therefore necessary to research whether or not the predicted trends have come to fruition, and look into what we can expect for the future.

Differing Opinions There are primarily two overarching arguments that have been put forth regarding the internets effects upon society, and more specifically, the average American individual. The first comes from those who adopt a more pessimistic view of internet usage and contend that the internet is the culprit responsible for the declining rates of civic engagement in the United States (Kraut et al., 2002). Many of these arguments stem from Robert Putnams detailed study into the overall trend of a decline in America of what he termed, social capital, which referred to both political engagement as well as common social activities, like group bowling (1995). Putnams study, however, appeared at a time when the internet was still in its stages of infancy; consequently, Putnam focused almost all of his attention on television, which he claimed was the reason behind the decline in social capital (1995). Many researchers adopted Putnams theories about television and applied them to their own studies of the internet, making the assumption that the two

THE INTERNET & POLITICAL PARTICIPATION mediums were relatively the same (Katz, Rice, & Aspden, 2001). This led to an overwhelming amount of literature putting forth what Xenos and Moy call, unjustifiable skepticism (2007). These skeptical researchers postulated that the internet leads to a decrease in physical activity and takes the place of face-to-face contact, which subsequently is responsible for a decrease in political participation and civic engagement (Nie & Erbring, 2000).

There were other studies conducted, though, that shed a different light upon the situation. These studies tended not to apply Putnams theories about television to the internet, but rather, allowed the internet to be studied with the independence of a new medium entirely different from T.V. The results that these researchers discovered were far more optimistic, and predicted a different effect of internet upon the populace (Shah, Kwak, & Holbert, 2001). Many of the studies argued that the internet was, in fact, increasing political participation (Katz, Rice, & Aspden, 2001; Wellman et al., 2001). These researchers also touted the benefits of the internet as a new medium of information gathering; they argued that its relatively low cost would lead to a higher amount of political participation based on the rational choice theory (Rheingold, 2001). As Bimber notes, changes in the cost and variety of sources of information directly affect levels of political participation (2003). They pointed to the fact that the internet, unlike its technological brother, television, was cheap and able to foster and support social interactions in the form of chat rooms, forums, and other types of online social networks (Rheingold, 1993). Others, such as Zhang & Chia, argued that while the internet did increase political participation, it did so only sometimes (2001). This leads us directly into the third argument. Aside from the optimistic and pessimistic views, there exists also an opinion that sees the internet in both a positive and a negative way. In much the same way that Zhang and Chia argued that the internet could enhance political engagement sometimes, these middle-of-the-

THE INTERNET & POLITICAL PARTICIPATION road researchers pointed to the fact that the internet should not be understood to be one single, positively-effecting entity; they argued that many people use the internet for many different

types of things (Shah, Kwak & Holbert, 2001). Because of this, they felt that there is an inherent difficulty in defining the true impact of the internet upon society. This difficulty derived from the argument put forth which stated that the internet offered two different types of activities: one that reduced political participation, and one that increased it (Norris, 2001). These activities were termed asynchronous and synchronous, respectively (Wellman, Haase, Witte, & Hampton, 2001). Asynchronous activities can be defined as activities that remove the user from both the online and offline communities. These activities include: digital libraries, online college courses, and online shopping (Wellman et al., 2001). Because of the nature of these online activities, many researchers argue that they tend to decrease civic engagement (Kang & Gearhart, 2010). Synchronous online activities, on the other hand, tend to increase civic engagement. These activities include: chatting, forums, instant messaging, and would more recently include social networking sites such as Facebook. These types of activities, because they are social in nature, tend to increase civic engagement (Weber & Bergman, 2001). This opinion, in summary, views the internet as something that can offer multiple experiences to different users, depending on what they decide to do online. Because of this, it is relatively difficult to come to one single conclusion about the internets effects upon one single individual. Based on the literature covered here, it is clear that there is neither one exact definition for the internet as an entire medium nor is there an adequate explanation of its impacts and effects. In order to address these problems and weaknesses, we have developed an experimental design that focuses solely on the association between viewing and coming into contact with online political content and political participation, or civic engagement. By doing this, we are

THE INTERNET & POLITICAL PARTICIPATION able to work our way around many of the problems that researchers studying this topic have experienced in the past; our study does not become diluted by trying to overreach into every single minute detail that can be explicated with regard to the internet. We address how informational use of the internet can affect political participation, specifically. Our main hypothesis is that viewing political information and/or political news online will lead to an increase in political participation. That is, viewing political information on the internet is positively associated with political participation. In addition, we hypothesize that not only will

informational internet usage lead to a higher degree of political participation, it will also lead to a more politically knowledgeable citizen. Much of the literature that we reviewed in order to lay the groundwork for this study used voting as one of the primary dependent variables; due to this fact, we initially focus our attention on the connection between the use of internet and voting. However, many other variables comprise political participation. Therefore, we include a list comprised of several different dependent variables in order to lend further credence to our study.

Theories Employed The theoretical underpinnings of our study are primarily grounded in two distinct theories: media system dependency theory and rational choice theory. The former, media system dependency theory, argues that media systems gain popularity in accordance with how well they are able to meet the needs of the consumer (Ball-Rokeach & DeFleur, 1976). In this day and age, individuals seem to need knowledge nearly all the time; any media system that is unable to deliver this information quickly and cheaply is bound to lose to a more efficient system. Based on this theory, many researchers have asserted that the popularity of the internet is only going to increase because of the fact that it delivers information to the end-user quickly, cheaply, and

THE INTERNET & POLITICAL PARTICIPATION conveniently (see especially: Tolbert & McNeal, 2003). We agree that because of this, individuals in the United States will increasingly be turning to the internet for political information and this may lead to an increased degree of political participation. The second theory we rely on is the widely known and widely accepted, rational choice theory. This theory, at its most basic, assumes that every individual will always attempt to make the most rational decision for themselves in their particular situation (i.e. they will opt for more, and not less, of something good). With regard to the internet, researchers have argued that because the internet has, in most cases, increasingly become cheaper and more efficient than

both television and other traditional news outlets, more and more users will continue to rely on it in the future (see especially: Xenos & Moy, 2007). This suggests a change in political participation as well, as any political activities that may have previously been avoided due to cost or time constraints will then become more probable. In other words, an increased use of a cheaper, more flexible medium of information may result in a proportional increase in civic engagement.

Data Used With respect to our data, we have the benefit of historical records on our side. The studies mentioned early on in the literature review were inhibited by a severe lack of data. This was not because there had been a lack of studying the internet, but rather, because before them there was relatively no internet to study. Over time, studies analyzing the internets affects on political participation have become somewhat more generalizable. This is because users of the internet now make up an overwhelming majority of the population of the United States; internet use is no longer restricted to one specific age group that is able to afford it. We are able to effectively

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examine our hypotheses with much less apprehension about whether our observations stem from web users being noticeably unique from mainstream America: web users today are mainstream America. Our data come from both the American National Election Studies (ANES) pre-election (N = 2,323) and post-election (N = 2,102) surveys. The response rate for the pre-election survey was 63.7%, while the re-interview rate for the post-election survey was 90.5% (AAPOR, 2008). Using this data allows us to apply our findings much more broadly. Furthermore, the 2008 ANES study came during a time in which the internet had reached a milestone in its development, with three out of every four Americans utilizing it on a daily basis (World Bank). This was accompanied by record-breaking voter turnout for the 2008 presidential election, which reversed the trend of declining turnout rates in the United States. In light of all of this, we feel that our reassessment of the impacts of the internet on voter participation is both timely and important.

Methods The only independent variable that we used for all of the following tests was whether or not the respondent had viewed campaign or election news online. Preferably, we would have liked to have been able to conduct more tests using other independent variables that measured whether respondents used the internet for other activities; this way, we would have been able to tell if other uses of the internet can lead to increased political participation. However, we were only able to refer to the 2008 NES data that focuses specifically on this question of whether or not the respondent viewed campaign information online. Regardless, this serves as a particularly good variable for measuring how informational use of the internet can affect political participation.

THE INTERNET & POLITICAL PARTICIPATION We ran a simple frequency test that informed us that 42.2% of the respondents to the survey reported seeing or hearing campaign or election news online. In addition, we also ran a

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correlation test to measure the correlation between having access to the internet and viewing or hearing campaign information online. Following this, we ran simple cross tabulation tests in order to examine whether the population of internet users was, as during its early days, still only comprised of educated, young, white males.

Political Knowledge To effectively conduct our study, we focused primarily on three groups of dependent variables which were all measured against the independent variable. Our first group works with our second hypothesis, which argues that an individual using the internet for synchronous, informational reasons will be more politically knowledgeable. As such, we have sorted these variables under the heading, political knowledge. The variables are all measures of political knowledge that were included in the 2008 NES study. The first variable asks respondents which political party is more conservative, with the correct answer being Republicans. The rest of the variables applied to the survey interviewer, however, they can be interpreted for and applied to the respondent. The variables measure whether or not the respondent had to be probed for an answer to questions by the interviewer; the probe was only used if the respondent failed to answer the question. Thus, if a respondent did not know the answer to the question, which office is currently held by Dick Cheney?, the interviewer would then probe the respondent as to what their best guess was and indicate that the probe had been used. The variables used asked whether the probe had to be utilized for the question of which offices were currently held by Nanci Pelosi, Dick Cheney, and

THE INTERNET & POLITICAL PARTICIPATION John Roberts. Each of these dependent variables measuring political knowledge was

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operationalized in a cross tabulation test with the independent variable; the test results were then converted into a bar chart displaying the information.

Political Participation Following these measures of political knowledge, our second group of dependent variables concentrates on more tangible acts of political participation; it is therefore aptly titled, political participation. Half of these variables asked respondents whether they had ever done or taken part in particular political actions such as joining a political protest, march or rally, attending a school or city board meeting, or donating money to a political or social organization. The other half of these variables measured whether the respondent had taken a particular action with respect to the 2004 election and the 2008 election. These variables asked whether the respondent had voted in the 2004 election, whether the respondent had voted in the 2008 Presidential primary or caucus, and whether the respondent had worn a political button or displayed a political sign or bumper sticker. Each of these variables was operationalized in a cross tabulation test with the independent variable. These test results were then converted into bar charts displaying the information. In addition to these cross tabulation tests, we also examined two ordinal variables that measured the degree of the respondents political participation. The first of these variables asked how often does the respondent vote, offering the following responses: 1. Always, 2. Nearly Always, 3. Part of the Time, 4. Seldom. The second variable asked the respondent how definite their intention to vote was with selection one being Definitely will not vote. It is important to note here that the ordinal scales on these two variables are inverses of one another. The first

THE INTERNET & POLITICAL PARTICIPATION measures political participation with selection one being the highest; the second measures political participation with selection one being the lowest. This is important to understand in order to interpret the results of the test that we used, which was a linear regression analysis comparing unstandardized coefficients.

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Future Political Participation The final group included variables that were each a measure of the likelihood that the respondent would take part in or do some political action in the future. These variables asked similar questions as those variables used in the political participation group, however, with a few key differences and additions. They asked respondents how likely they were to join a political protest, march, or rally; attend a school or city board meeting; sign an internet petition; and finally, donate money to a social or political organization. These dependent variables were also operationalized in cross tabulation tests with the independent variable and also converted into representative bar charts.

Results As we mentioned before, we first analyzed whether the population of internet users was still primarily comprised of hip, young, well-educated, white males. The cross tab results can be seen below in Table 1 and Table 2. The results of our tests affirm our assumptions that the internet population has become far more diverse than it was during its early years. The first table shows that males, while still holding first place in regards to having internet access, are barely beating out females; 71% of males identified themselves as having access to the internet, while 68.3% of

THE INTERNET & POLITICAL PARTICIPATION females did so. These data show that the gender gap in internet access is almost non-existent.

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Following this, we analyzed whether there was a distinct gap in internet access when it came to race. These results are shown below in Table 2. These results clearly show that, also unlike the early days of the internet, internet users are now comprised of a colorful population of many different racial backgrounds. In other words, whites are no longer the only users of the internet as was seen before. In fact, the data show that although the whites had the overall highest number of individuals with access, the percent of users within the specific race was the second highest at 77.6%; blacks held the highest position, with 82.9% of individuals within the race having access to the internet. This data supports our assumption that the results of our study, while still not perfectly generalizable, can apply more broadly to the U.S. population as a whole.

Table 1

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Table 2

The results of our correlation test, which examined the correlation between those respondents with internet access and those who had viewed campaign information online, also showed significant results. These results can be seen in Table 3. The findings demonstrate that

Table 3

THE INTERNET & POLITICAL PARTICIPATION there is a very high correlation between the two variables. These results show that people with access to the internet are very likely to come into contact with campaign information online, whether on purpose or inadvertently. The results of our political knowledge analyses support our hypothesis that those who view campaign information online are more likely to be more knowledgeable in regards to political information. In Table 4, Table 5, Table 6, and Table 7, these results become very apparent. Table 4 shows that those respondents who viewed or heard campaign information online were more likely to answer the question of which party is more conservative correctly, and far less likely to answer it incorrectly.

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Table 4

THE INTERNET & POLITICAL PARTICIPATION Table 5, Table 6, and Table 7 illustrate that respondents who had viewed or heard internet

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information online were less likely to have to be probed by an interviewer for the correct answer to a question. In addition, with the exception of the question of which office was currently held by John Roberts, they were more likely to not be probed for an answer.

Table 5

Table 6

Table 7

THE INTERNET & POLITICAL PARTICIPATION These results corroborate previous research that asserted that internet usage leads to an increased awareness of politics in general, and raises levels of political knowledge. The data show that the internet had an overall positive effect upon respondents levels of political knowledge.

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The results of our analyses concerning political participation revealed to us that not only does the internet increase political knowledge, it also has an overwhelmingly positive influence on political participation. Tables 8-13 reveal that those respondents who had viewed or heard campaign information online were consistently more likely to be engaged politically and much less likely to be disengaged.

Table 8

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Table 9

Table 10

THE INTERNET & POLITICAL PARTICIPATION Table 11 Table 12

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Table 13

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Similarly, the results of our linear regression tests, which measured the degree of the respondents levels of participation, showed that the internet had a positive effect upon the respondents political participation. Notably, all of the results were highly significant, with each having a p-value of less than .000 . In Table 14, the results show that movement from viewing campaign information online (coded as 0 for yes) to not viewing information online (coded as 1 for no) leads a proportional movement in political participation. In this case, the viewing of information online is associated with positive political participation. Table 15 shows similar results, although as mentioned before, the scale for political participation is somewhat opposite to that which is seen in Table 14. Table 14

Table 15

THE INTERNET & POLITICAL PARTICIPATION Finally, similar findings were found when we tested our variables measuring future political participation. Those respondents that reported viewing or hearing information online

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were, once again, consistently more likely to take part in political action in the future and far less likely to not take part. These results are shown in Table 16, Table 17, Table 18, and Table 19.

Table 16

THE INTERNET & POLITICAL PARTICIPATION Table 17

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Table 18

THE INTERNET & POLITICAL PARTICIPATION Table 19

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Discussion Internet usage in the United States, though certainly not yet universal, has grown to a point where it has become a daily routine for an enormous number of the population. Because of this, the data that we examine here help us get a better view as to what effect the internet is having upon our society. Previous research took place during a time when the internet was rapidly expanding and constantly changing; the population of the internet was fluctuating in both size and attributes nearly every year (Tolbert & McNeal, 2003). Our results, however, come at a time when the internet population has stopped its exponential growth, increasing by only 2% from 2008 to 2010. This stability makes our data all the more important, as it is more likely that our results reveal patterns that will remain consistent throughout the years. Granted, though the population of internet users may be past its exponential growth phase, there may likely be

THE INTERNET & POLITICAL PARTICIPATION differences in the way people use the internet when they have been using it all their lives. Because of this, future research into the effects of the internet on society is still needed. However, our data do bring to light important findings about the effects of the internet on our

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current society. The data show that the informational use of the internet, almost consistently, has a positive effect upon ones political participation. In other words, there is a proportional increase in positive political participation for each increase in internet usage. These findings are contrary to many of the initial fears about the internet that researchers held. Because the internet offers a much broader experience than television, Putnams findings for that medium cannot successfully be applied to the internet. Although our data holds several import implications, both for future research and for politicians alike, we should first point out some of the ways in which our current study was limited. Because we were using the 2008 NES data, we were only able to use a single variable to measure internet usage. Ideally, we would have liked to have been able to use several variables measuring things such as how much the internet was used. As mentioned previously, though, our variable worked for strictly measuring informational use of the internet. Future studies may expand upon our results, though, by reassessing the effects of entertainment use of the internet and other non-informational uses. Also, because the NES data is gathered over a period of several months some before the election and some after the results may have been influenced. By this we mean, some of the political participation results may have been increased simply because the respondent was answering closer to the period of the election day. Finally, although the majority of our findings were positive, we feel that it is important to note one possible negative. Our findings do not look into detail as to whether or not people who are already likely to be politically active are also more likely to use the internet to do so. Further

THE INTERNET & POLITICAL PARTICIPATION research is necessary to discover whether the internet is causing the information-rich [to] get richer (Xenos & Moy, 2007). If the internet were serving to widen already existing gaps

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because of what remains of the digital divide, this would certainly be a topic that warrants further study. These limitations are pointed out primarily so that future researchers referring to our study will immediately know ways in which they can improve upon its model. The data that we have analyzed here hold incredibly important implications for politicians and policyholders. They show that people who utilize the internet for informational purposes are both more likely to vote and more likely to donate money. Therefore, for those individuals who rely upon the electorate, utilization of the internet has become incredibly important. The majority of the American population is now connected to the internet, and this provides politicians with an excellent medium for mobilization. As shown by our study, use of the internet itself promotes civic engagement in the population of those who use it. So then, if politicians or interest groups want to spread their message across the country, the internet provides an incredibly viable medium for them to do so. Also, those who attempt to predict the outcome of elections by analyzing statistics may need to rework their models in order to incorporate variables measuring the internet. To conclude, the results of our study show that informational use of the internet does, in fact, lead to a rise in political engagement and political knowledge. In America, a country founded upon democratic principles that encourage the active engagement of the entire populace, this is an excellent thing. The internet, unlike any other advancement in communications technology before it, provides a virtual world of information that has become available to almost everybody. As this technology grows and access to it expands, it appears that in the future we can expect to see an even more informed and engaged populace.

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