February 8, 2013

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The ValuEngine Weekly is an Investor Education newsletter focused on the quantitative approach to investing and the tools available from ValuEngine.com. In today's fast-moving and globalized financial markets, it is easy to get overloaded with information. The winners will adopt an objective, scientific, independent and unemotional approach to investing. If you are not yet a member of ValuEngine's stock analysis service, sign up now for a two-week free trial at www.valuengine.com!

VALUATION WATCH: Our models find that overvaluation is at levels typically seen when a market pullback may occur. Overvalued stocks now make up almost 63% of our universe and almost 23% of the universe is calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. ALL sectors are calculated to be overvalued. MARKET OVERVIEW

Index
DJIA NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 S&P 500

Week Open
14009.79 3161.72 911.18 1513.17

Thurs Close
13944 3165.13 908.1 1509.39

Change
-65.79 3.41 -3.08 -3.78

% Change
-0.47% 0.11% -0.34% -0.25%

YTD
6.41% 4.82% 6.92% 5.83%

Summary of VE Stock Universe

Stocks Undervalued Stocks Overvalued Stocks Undervalued by 20% Stocks Overvalued by 20% 38.17% 61.83% 15.17% 22.85%

SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities

Change
0.70% -0.41% 0.11% -0.15% -0.07% -0.07% 0.04% -0.33% -0.30% -0.48% -0.55% -0.16% -0.20% -0.43% -0.26% -0.30%

MTD
1.18% 0.97% 0.82% 0.03% 1.72% -0.34% 0.87% 0.29% 0.69% 0.26% 0.51% -0.76% -0.05% 3.38% 0.28% 0.46%

YTD
5.90% 7.15% 4.67% 6.45% 8.50% 8.53% 8.59% 5.20% 7.43% 6.12% 6.89% 2.98% 7.56% 11.56% 10.89% 6.46%

Valuation
6.16% overvalued 8.37% overvalued 1.79% overvalued 9.57% overvalued 12.82% overvalued 21.33% overvalued 8.01% overvalued 21.94% overvalued 16.43% overvalued 19.03% overvalued 13.62% overvalued 8.67% overvalued 5.11% overvalued 10.50% overvalued 20.43% overvalued 7.32% overvalued

Last 12MReturn
5.12% -0.60% -24.47% 8.16% 1.60% 23.21% 8.38% 10.20% 14.12% 2.40% 4.45% 9.72% -12.25% 15.44% 3.76% 7.34%

P/E Ratio
36.98 15.39 25.75 24.8 38.12 48.88 24.61 20.11 20.73 22.73 27.33 16.14 30.64 32.8 23.89 18.72

Sector TalkRetail/Wholesale Stocks

Below, we present the latest data on leading Retail/Wholesale Sector stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.

Top-Five Retail/Wholesale Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
CWTR NILE OWW LULU ANN

Name
COLDWATER CREEK BLUE NILE INC ORBITZ WORLDWID LULULEMON ATHLT ANN INC

Mkt Price
3.8 31.52 2.77 67.63 30.2

Valuation(%)
-52.45 -27.4 -36.18 -20.89 -8.82

Last 12-M Retn(%)

-5.94 -25.85 -22.41 3.97 27.43

Top-Five Retail/Wholesale Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
GPS LL HD WMT TGT

Name
GAP INC LUMBER LIQUIDAT HOME DEPOT WAL-MART STORES TARGET CORP

Mkt Price
32.23 59.94 66.31 71.23 62.3

Valuation(%)
2.16 3.02 16.75 8.51 -1.33

Last 12-M Retn(%)

51.17 165.81 49.04 18.3 21.61

Top-Five Retail/Wholesale Sector Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker
GPS AHONY TGT WAG GME

Name
GAP INC AHOLD N V ADR TARGET CORP WALGREEN CO GAMESTOP CORP

Mkt Price
32.23 14.08 62.3 41.31 25.41

Valuation(%)
2.16 -32.41 -1.33 -4.83 -6.08

Last 12-M Retn(%)

51.17 6.99 21.61 27.15 11.11

Top-Five Retail/Wholesale Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker
TUES FNP BIOS TAST RT

Name
TUESDAY MORNING FIFTH PACIFIC BIOSCRIP INC CARROLS RESTRNT RUBY TUESDAY

Mkt Price
9.07 16.59 11.23 6.1 7.55

Valuation(%)
300 125.98 91.06 79.54 70.63

Last 12-M Retn(%)

139.31 72.27 68.37 102.66 -6.56

Find out what Wall Street Investment and Media Professionals already know, ValuEngine offers sophisticated stock valuation and forecast research as well as a variety of portfolio screening and creation tools. If you are reading this you should sign up for ValuEngine's award-winning To Sign Up for a stock valuation and forecast FREE TRIAL, service Please Click HERE NO OBLIGATION, 30 DAY FREE TRIAL!

Free Download for Readers

As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Detailed Stock Valuation Reports--this report is normally $25.00 This week's free download is our report on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR). Green Mountain Coffee Roasters engages in the production and marketing of award-winning coffees, innovative brewing technology and gourmet single-cup brewing systems. The Company's operations are managed through three operating segments. The Specialty Coffee business unit sources, produces and sells coffee, cocoa, teas and other hot beverages. These varieties are sold primarily to wholesale channels. The Keurig business unit, a pioneer and leading manufacturer of gourmet single-cup brewing systems, targets its premium patented single-cup brewing systems for use at-home and away-from-home, mainly in North America. The Canadian business unit sources, produces and sells coffees in a variety of packaging formats, including K-Cup portion packs, whose brands include Van Houtte, Brlerie St. Denis, Brlerie Mont-Royal and Orient Express and its licensed Bigelow and Wolfgang Puck brands. Green Mountain Coffee Roasters is headquartered in Waterbury, Vermont. Free Weekly Newsletter Subscribers can download a FREE Detailed Valuation Report on GMCR HERE. Subscribers can check out the latest figures on GMCR from our models HERE. Not a ValuEngine.com Premium Website member? Then please consider signing up for our no obligation, two-week free trial today. ValuEngine's awardwinning stock Valuation and Forecast Models continue to provide investors with accurate, objective, and timely information on US stocks, ADRs, and foreign equities that trade on US markets. Over the last few months, our stock picks have provided clients with many winners in both up and down periods. If you have not subscribed and want to be able to receive a FREE $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Report, you can subscribe to our Free Weekly Newsletter HERE

What's Hot--Small Cap Stock Newsletter is LIVE

The ValuEngine Small Cap Stock Newsletter features 15 primary stock selection and five alternate stock picks derived from our award-winning stock forecast model. Equities selected focus on small-cap companies which can be more volatile, but also offer the potential of outsized returns for a given amount of investment capital. Investors can establish larger positions in these equities due to the fact that they often feature far-lower share prices than equities chosen for our other newsletters and investment strategies. These aren't "penny stocks"--all companies must be trading at more than $1.00 to be selected--but they do tend to be more affordable. The ValuEngine Small Cap newsletter portfolio has 15 stocks and is re-balanced once each month. An equal amount of capital is allocated to each stock. Since inception, performance has been good. It is designed for investor who like the outsized return possibilities of smaller-cap companies and who are comfortable with the fact that such stocks may be more volatile and present more risk than larger, more-established firms. Each month you will receive an electronic copy of our newsletter highlighting 15 potential long positions along with five alternate picks. Our investment strategies focus on dozens of fundamental and technical factors for over 8000 individual stocks, synthesize the data, and then come up with a portfolio. Each newsletter portfolio focuses on maximum potential returns so there are no diversity requirements. Each portfolio pick includes critical ValuEngine valuation and forecast data. These 20 total picks represent the most up-to-date equity assessments of our proprietary models. Why Small Cap Stocks? Small cap stocks allow investors to establish larger positions on a share basis and thus benefit from the price swings and upward volatility of these sorts of equities. Small cap stocks often lead rallies. However, this volatility and risk runs both ways. So, prudent investors are careful to establish stop-losses and hedging strategies for every portfolio.

Here are the results from last month's portfolio:

Symbol
ABCP ALSK ATNY FSS HAFC HCI HGSH IMH IQNT KTOS PATK PIKE REGI STSI YONG

Company Name
AMBASE CORP ALASKA COMM SYS API TECH CORP FED SIGNAL CP HANMI FINL CP HOMEOWNERS CHCE CHINA HGS REAL IMPAC MRTG HLDG NEUTRAL TANDEM KRATOS DEFENSE PATRICK INDS PIKE ELECTRIC RENEWABLE ENERG STAR SCIENTIFIC YONGYE INTL INC

Entry Price % Exit Price Change 12-20-12 Change

1.03 2.02 2.75 7.25 13.05 21.56 2.99 15.05 2.84 4.88 15.42 9.78 5.84 3.11 5.12 1.05 1.93 2.92 7.99 16.17 24.03 3.8 14.08 3.05 4.92 15.42 9.97 6.65 2.64 5.7 0.02 -0.09 0.17 0.74 3.12 2.47 0.81 -0.97 0.21 0.04 0.00 0.19 0.81 -0.47 0.58

1.94 -4.46 6.18 10.21 23.91 11.46 27.09 -6.45 7.39 0.82 0.00 1.94 13.87 -15.11 11.33 6.01

LONG PORTFOLIO GSPC S&P500

1435.81 1492.56 56.75

3.95

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Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com Treasury Yields 10-Year--(1.962) Weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 2.102, 2.476 and 3.063 with daily and annual pivots at 1.990 and 1.981, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.843 and 1.413. Commodities and Forex Comex Gold ($1671.7) Weekly and annual value levels are $1630.1 and $1599.9 with daily, semiannual, monthly, quarterly and annual and semiannual risky levels at $1687.1, $1719.2, $1793.7, $1802.9 and $1852.1. Nymex Crude Oil ($95.78) Monthly and quarterly pivots are $96.21 and $95.84 with daily, weekly, annual and semiannual risky levels at $97.23, $100.60, $115.23, $115.42 and $130.42. The Euro (1.3395) Quarterly, annual and semiannual value levels are 1.3334, 1.3257 and 1.2797 with monthly and daily pivots at 1.3570 and 1.3586, and weekly and annual risky levels at 1.3747 and 1.4295. Major Indices Daily DOW (13,944) Quarterly and annual value levels are 13,668, 12,696 and 12,509 with daily, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 14,000, 14,132 and 14,323. The October 2007 high is 14,198.10. The all time closing high is 14,164.53 set on October 9, 2007. S&P 500 (1509.4) Quarterly and annual value levels are 1431.1 and 1348.3 with daily, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1512.9, 1542.9 and 1566.9. The October 2007 high is 1576.09.

NASDAQ (3165) Quarterly and annual value levels are 3071, 2806 and 2790 with a daily pivot at 3161, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 3205, 3250 and 3583. The September 21, 2012 high is 3196.93. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2747) Annual value levels are 2463 and 2385 with a daily pivot at 2744, and weekly, quarterly and monthly risky levels at 2777, 2798 and 2871. My semiannual risky level is 3196. Dow Transports (5887) Daily, annual, monthly and quarterly value levels are 5829, 5469, 5440 and 5094 with annual and semiannual risky levels at 5925 and 5955. Tuesdays close at 5884.39 was another new all time closing high. To confirm a Dow Theory Buy Signal the Dow Industrials need to have a daily close above its all time closing high of 14,164.53 set on October 9, 2007. Russell 2000 (908.10) Annual, quarterly and annual value levels are 860.25, 821.01 and 809.54 with daily and monthly pivots at 904.95 and 911.32, and semiannual risky level at 965.51. The Russell 2000 set another new all time high at 912.76 on February 1. The SOX (419.26) Monthly, quarterly and annual value levels are 409.08, 371.62 and 338.03 with a daily pivot at 418.42, and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 440.36 and 520.17. The July 2007 high is 549.39.

With Richard Suttmeier's Morning Briefing, you get daily analysis of US Treasury Yields, Gold, Crude Oil, and Currency Exchange Rates--Dollar, Yen, Pound, and Euro--as well as key technical indicators for the major equity averages.

Click HERE to Sign Up for Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier's Morning Briefing!

ValuEngine.com Tools and Services

We provide a variety of means for accessing ValuEngine market analysis and other content. You can find us on some of the leading financial media websites as well as the more popular social media services. While our own website ValuEngine.com provides access to lots of analysis--and you can always sign up to receive email daily and weekly bulletins HERE, some users prefer to download PDF reports of content while others prefer to garner info while browsing the web. Our Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier is a prolific market observer and you can find his content in a variety of places. His weekly column on Forbes provides insights into his "Buy and Trade" strategy while his daily market analysis can be followed and accessed at Scribd, Twitter, and Minyanville. Senior Editor Steve Hach re-posts PDFs and web-accessible copies of Daily and Weekly ValuEngine bulletins at Seeking Alpha and Scribd. In most cases, you can receive notification of VE content posting by Suttmeier and Hach by following the ValuEngine feed on twitter @ValuEngine. Links for this content are provided below, you may also find these links on our website HERE

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