The drought lives on

Meteorology and agronomy for both the experienced farmer and the clueless city folk By Rebekah Hoeger

April showers bring May flowers. That may not be the case this spring. The biggest hurdle farmers face this year is not the weather brought by Mother Earth, but the earth itself. With or without ample precipitation, the soil may not be wet enough for ideal crop farming. Meteorologists also have reason to believe we won't be getting ample rain. That means potentially lower than target corn and bean yields for the second year in a row. According to the USDA, in 2012 the U.S. average corn yield was 123 bushels per acre, significantly lower than 147 bushels per acre in 2011. Lower yields mean higher prices, and higher prices mean expensive trips to the grocery store. Everything from soda to cereal may see price hikes if the predictions come to fruition. Ethanol won't be any cheaper either. 2012 saw the lowest corn yield since 1995, according to the USDA. Prospects for rain look less grim for this planting and growing season, but that doesn't mean we're in the clear. Climatologist and Ag Meteorologist Elwynn Taylor says we're in what could be up to a 4 year event caused by La Nina, a weather phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. He says this event has happened several times in the past, "and the result has been similar not just for the corn belt, but pretty much for the world."

El Nino and La Nina

La Nina happens when the equatorial pacific is cooler than usual. La Nina leads to a dryer year in the Corn Belt. When the equatorial pacific is warmer than usual, it is called El Nino. El Nino is a precursor to a wetter year in the Corn Belt. In 2010 El Nino plunged the Midwest into a massive waterslide ending a six year streak of above trend corn yields. Then in summer 2012 the effects of La Nina took hold and threw us into a giant dehydrator. But La Nina had been in the works for a while, reaching full force two years earlier. In 2010 La Nina reached the 2nd highest magnitude in 100+ years of record keeping. For meteorologists following La Nina, the resulting drought was no surprise. "This drought has been in process for some time as the others were. They are essentially a four year event," Taylor said. Oceanic temperatures returned to neutral early summer 2012, but the atmosphere still has not recovered. Taylor said the planet's current state resembles La Nina conditions. How long it will linger is uncertain. "We didn't expect it to last this long," Taylor said.

Taylor has evidence to believe that more than a rain dance may be needed to get enough of corn's favorite drink this growing season. In previous La Nina events--in the 1910's, the dustbowl, mid 50's, mid 70's, and 1988-rainfall both the previous and following year of the drought was scant. For farmers that potentially means another crop season with less than normal rain.

Recovery a slow process

Less than normal rain is nothing farmers haven't seen before, but this year the effects may be different.

"It normally would not be a serious problem if it was just a little bit below normal," Taylor said, "however the moisture in the subsoil was pretty much exhausted both in 2011 and 2012 and the rooting of the plants unfortunately was much deeper."
On average corn crops have roots about 5 feet deep. When the weather is dry, roots have to dig deeper for water to survive. "The crops were hanging on far longer. From a mathematical standpoint, they should have run out of water," said Iowa State field agronomist, Virgil Schmitt about the 2012 crops. But they didn't. In the 2012 drought, some roots dug as deep as 9 feet, sucking the land dry with more force than a wet vac in a swimming pool. And it takes a lot more water to refill an empty pool than it does to fill a half full pool. Optimal soil hydration is 2 inches of water per foot of soil. To replenish 9 feet of bone dry soil, it will take 18 inches of precipitation between October 1 and planting season, "and that has never happened in the past. That's the bad news," Schmitt said. Normal precipitation between October and May is only about 16 inches. So far, we've gotten six. And without ideal conditions, water is useless. When the land is as dry as it is after a drought, much of the rainfall doesn't soak in. When it downpours, most of it is lost in run-off. When the land is still frozen, most of the melted snow doesn't even penetrate the soil. "It is not likely that the subsoil will be fully recharged at least in Illinois, Missouri, Iowa,

Minnesota, the Dakotas, or Nebraska or Kansas," Taylor said. But according to Schmitt the soil may not have to be fully recharged at planting season. With the right timing, crops may just get adequate hydration. "We plant the seeds only about an inch or two deep. Consequently, we should be at a point that we can get those crops started," Schmitt said. "The question becomes, can we keep them going?" Predicting the weather
Farmers can't change the weather, but they can play a role in predicting it. Major decisions can be influenced by knowledge of something called the Bermuda High, says Schmitt.

The Bermuda High is a large high pressure system in the Atlantic Ocean. During the spring and summer it sets up in the Bermudas putting it in a perfect position to pump warm moist air toward Iowa. Like all important matters, it comes with a deadline. "If it is not in place by the 15th of April, it is usually a bad omen as we had this past year," said Schmitt. In 2012 the Bermuda High dumped all the rain elsewhere, leaving Iowa with desert-like conditions. Schmitt also advises farmers to look for weather predictions from the south. Because spring works its way up from the Gulf of Mexico, it makes a pit stop in Arkansas first. If farmers watch whats going on in Arkansas in March it can be a good indication of what to expect in Iowa around planting.

Damage Control
Knowing the weather forecast doesn't grow corn. Farmers have a big year ahead of them to make up for drought. They must reach about 160 bushels per acre to reach USDA's 2013 national trend yield. Rain or no rain, farmers can't be afraid to take a chance. According to Schmitt, that means maintaining crop populations. "If we plant higher populations, the worst case scenario that can happen is we wasted some money on seed. If we plant lower populations we've limited our ability to have a decent yield," said Schmitt. "If you cut back on plant populations, you've got a lot more to lose than you have to gain." Farmers can also consider drought resistant seed corn if they're worried about the weather. It's more expensive, but it flourishes in both normal growing conditions and dry growing conditions. "They did really well in 2012 and there's a lot of demand for those products (this winter)," said David Bubeck, Director of Research at Pioneer Seeds, about their premium drought resistant product, Aquamax. He said theres still a little bit of time left to switch seed corn orders. Other important strategies are reducing tillage as much as possible, maintaining strong crop management, and ordering a good package of different hybrid seed corn.

Finally, farmers should stay optimistic. Even with less than ideal weather patterns, it won't be hard to beat a dry year like 2012. "Somebody that doesn't have a state climatologist title could probably predict that," said Bubeck. "However, we don't really know what 2013 is going to bring. Nobody knows that for sure."