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Contents
1 2 3 4 5 6 Introduction Executive summary Tower sharing ratio is the key to economic model of a towerco Current tower sharing ratio for Indian towercos reflects 2G growth 3G/4G coverage and capacity will drive effective colocation Telco-owned towercos are well positioned to capture incremental colocation BTS 1 2 3 6 9 14 18 28 29 30 31
Appendix A: Data charts and tables About the authors About Analysys Mason Research from Analysys Mason Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of figures
Figure 3.1: Capex and opex recovery model for a towerco for calculating rentals [Source: Analysys Mason] 3 Figure 3.2: Illustrative site opex breakup for India and US [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012] ......................... 5 Figure 4.1: Wireless 2G subscriber base in India, FY2008 FY2012 [Source: TRAI, Analysys Mason] ....... 6 Figure 4.2: Minutes of usage per sub per month [Source: TRAI, Analysys Mason] ........................................ 6 Figure 4.3: Installed towers base by towercos,000 towers FY2012 [Source: Company reports, Industry inputs, Analysys Mason] .................................................................................................................................. 7 Figure 4.4: Colocation BTS by towercos,000 BTS, FY2012 [Source: Company reports, Industry inputs, Analysys Mason] .............................................................................................................................................. 7 Figure 4.5: Sharing ratio for telco-owned towercos, FY2012 [Source: Company reports, Industry inputs, Analysys Mason] .............................................................................................................................................. 8 Figure 4.6: Sharing ratio for independent towercos, FY2012 [Source: Company reports, Industry inputs, Analysys Mason] .............................................................................................................................................. 8 Figure 5.1: 2G and 3G subscribers network payload by circle category [Source: NSN Mbit index, August 2012] ................................................................................................................................................................. 9 Figure 5.2: Smartphone penetration, 2011 [Source: Analysys Mason, Industry inputs] ................................ 10 Figure 5.3: Share of data services in total revenue, 2009 - 2011 [Source: Analysys Mason, company reports] ........................................................................................................................................................................ 10 Figure 5.4: Indicative cell radius for 900 MHz and 1800 MHz spectrum [Source: Analysys Mason] ........... 11 Figure 5.5: Sites required to cover 1,000 sq.km dense urban area in different frequency bands [Source: Analysys Mason] ............................................................................................................................................ 11 Figure 5.6: BTS multiples for migration among frequency bands in dense urban areas [Source: Analysys Mason] ............................................................................................................................................................ 11 Figure 5.7: LTE deployment scenario [Source: Analysys Mason] ................................................................. 12 Figure 5.8: Total wireless SIM base in India, FY2008 FY2017 [Source: TRAI, Analysys Mason] ........... 13 Figure 5.9: Colocation BTS installed base in India [Source: Analysys Mason] ............................................. 13
Contents
Figure 6.1: Towers installed base and tower sharing ratio, FY2012 FY2017 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012] ............................................................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 6.2: Telcos decision process of allocating colocation BTS to different towercos [Source: Analysys Mason] ............................................................................................................................................................ 15 Figure 6.3: SWOT analysis of telco-owned and independent towercos in India [Source: Industry inputs, Analysys Mason] ............................................................................................................................................ 16 Figure A.1: Total wireless SIMs in India FY2008 FY2017 [Source: TRAI, Analysys Mason] .................. 18 Figure A.2: Active wireless SIMs in India FY2008 FY2017 [Source: TRAI, Analysys Mason] ................ 18 Figure A.3: Installed tower base by towercos, 000 towers, FY2012 (total: 376k) [Source: Company reports, Industry inputs, company reports] .................................................................................................................. 19 Figure A.4: Colocation BTSs by towercos, 000 BTS, FY2012 (total: 640k) [Source: Company reports, Industry inputs, company reports, Analysys Mason] ...................................................................................... 19 Figure A.5: Industry revenue, FY2012 FY2016, INR billion [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]................. 20 Figure A.6: Minutes of Usage (MoUs) per subscriber per month, minutes [Source: TRAI, Analysys Mason] ........................................................................................................................................................................ 20 Figure A.7: Construction cost of ground based tower in urban area, INR 000 [Source: Analysys Mason] .. 21 Figure A.8: Construction cost of roof top tower in urban area, INR 000 [Source: Analysys Mason] ........... 21 Figure A.9: Colocation BTS installed base by technology in India, FY2008 FY2017 [Source: Company reports, Industry inputs, Analysys Mason] ..................................................................................................... 22 Figure A.10: Telecom towers installed base and tower sharing ratio in India, FY2008 FY2017 [Source: Company reports, Industry inputs, Analysys Mason] ..................................................................................... 22 Figure A.11: Towers installed base by type of towercos in India, FY2008 FY2012 [Source: Company reports, Industry inputs, Analysys Mason] ..................................................................................................... 23 Figure A.12: Number of sites required to cover 1,000 sq. Km dense urban area at different frequency band [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012] .................................................................................................................... 23 Figure A.13: Data usage per active handset subscriber by technology, FY2011 FY2017 [Source: Analysys Mason, Industry inputs] .................................................................................................................................. 24 Figure A.14: Total data traffic from 2G and 3G handset SIMs in India (million GB), FY2011 FY2017 [Source: Analysys Mason, Industry inputs] .................................................................................................... 24 Figure A.15: 4G Data only SIMs (dongles and connected computing devices), million, FY2013 FY2017 [Source: Analysys Mason] .............................................................................................................................. 25 Figure A.16: Financial metrics of American Towers (US), 2009-2011, Market capitalization as of 6 September 2012: 28.31 bn [Source: Analysys Mason, Company reports] ..................................................... 25 Figure A.17: Financial metrics of SBA9, 2009-2011, Market capitalization as of 6 September 2012: USD 7.38 bn [Source: Analysys Mason, Company reports] ................................................................................... 26 Figure A.18: Financial metrics of Crown Castle (US), 2009-2011, Market cap as of 6 September 2012: USD 19.02 bn [Source: Analysys Mason, Company reports] ................................................................................. 26 Figure A.19: Financial metrics of TBIG (Indonesia), 2009-2011, Market cap as of 6 September 2012: USD1.96 bn [Source: Analysys Mason, Company reports] ........................................................................... 27
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