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A4A Projects 206 Million Passengers to Travel on U.S. Airlines in Summer 2012* Flat Volumes Overall: Record International; Domestic 7 Percent Below 2007 Peak
250
217.6 25.1
210.2 25.7
200.3 24.1
203.1
206.1
26.3
25.8
192.4
184.5
176.2
177.3
179.8
179.4
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
* Summer constitutes the period June 1 through August 31; data reflects onboard passengers traveling in scheduled service per DOT T100 segment database
2011A
2012F
airlines.org
Rising Costs Forcing U.S. Airlines to Continue Capacity Reductions in 2012 Domestic ASMs in 4Q Scheduled at 12 Percent Below Pre-Recession Levels
4Q12
4Q07
4Q12
Source: Innovata (via Diio Mi) published schedules as of May 4, 2012; an ASM is one seat flown one mile
airlines.org
U.S. Airlines Adding Capacity to Most Continents in 2012 Notable Exceptions: Europe and the Middle East
Change (%) in Scheduled Available Seat Miles* (ASMs) from the USA: 4Q 2012 vs. 4Q 2011
84.8
72.9 51.5
13.1
(0.8)
19.5 7.0
(7.2)
* Scheduled U.S. airline flights departing U.S. airports for other continents; an ASM is one seat flown one mile Source: Innovata (via Diio Mi) published schedules as of May 4, 2012
airlines.org
1Q 2012 U.S. Airline* Losses Worsened, Constituting 5.2 Percent of Revenues Despite 8.2 Percent Stronger Revenue, Profits Shrank on 10.3 Percent Higher Costs
1Q 2012 Better/(Worse) Than 1Q 2011* Year-Over-Year Change Operating Revenues Operating Expenses Fuel Wages and Benefits Other Other Income/(Expenses) Net Income Percent 8.2 (6.9) (19.1) (4.2) (0.4) (118.5) (73.6)
(3.2)
(5.2)
1Q 2011 1Q 2012
* A4A analysis of reports by Alaska, Allegiant, American, Delta, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit, United and US Airways
airlines.org
1Q U.S. Airline* Losses Persist, Led by AMR Negative Profit Margin Prevails, in Stark Contrast to Other Fortune 500s
1Q 2012 (1,731)
1Q 2012 (55)
(5.2)
(0.2)
1Q 2012
1,396 4.3
Apple Inc.
Net Income ($ Millions) Net Margin (Percent)
1Q 2012
11,622 29.7
* A4A analysis of reports by Alaska, Allegiant, American, Delta, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest/AirTran, Spirit, United and US Airways
airlines.org
Jet Fuel in 2012 Running 7 Percent Higher Than in Same Period of 2011 High Crude-Oil Price Plus Refining Crack Spread*
2011
1991-1995
1996-2000
2001-2005
26-May-12
Source: A4A and EIA (for WTI and Brent crude oil and U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel)
10-May-12
2006-2010
19-Jan-12
11-Jun-12
20-Feb-12
23-Mar-12
27-Jun-12
YTD 2012
7-Mar-12
$145 $140 $135 $130 $125 $120 $115 $110 $105 $100 $95
3-Jan-12 4-Feb-12
Jet Fuel
Brent Crude
WTI Crude
24-Apr-12
8-Apr-12
$0.54
$0.58
$1.02
$2.17
$3.00
Unlike Many Goods/Services, Price of Air Travel Has Not Kept Pace with U.S. Inflation Adjusted for Inflation, Domestic Fares Have Fallen 16.4% (12.0% incl. Fees) Since 2000
Product (Unit) College Tuition: Public (Year) Gasoline (Gallon, Unleaded) Eggs (Dozen, Grade A, Large) College Tuition: Private (Year) Baseball Game (Nonpremium MLB Ticket) Movie Ticket Prescription Drugs (Index) Single-Family Home (New) U.S. CPI (All Urban Consumers)1 Vehicle (New) Air Travel (Round-Trip Domestic Fare + Fees)2 Air Travel (Round-Trip Domestic Fare Only)2 Apparel: Clothing/Footwear/Jewelry (Index) Television (Index)
2000 $3,508 $1.51 $0.91 $16,072 $16.22 $5.39 285.4 $169,000 172.2 $24,923 $317 $314 129.6 49.9
2011 $8,244 $3.53 $1.77 $28,500 $26.91 n/a 425.0 n/a 224.9 n/a $364 $343 122.1 6.6
% Change 135.0 133.8 94.5 77.3 65.9 n/a 48.9 n/a 30.6 n/a 15.0 9.2 (5.8) (86.8)
1. Bureau of Labor Statistics measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. 2. A4A analysis of data collected by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics excludes taxes; fees include reservation change fees and baggage fees
airlines.org
U.S. Inflation Continues to Outpace the Price of Air Travel on U.S. Airlines Average Domestic Revenue* and Taxes Collected per Round-Trip Passenger
$186
$202
$312 $356 $419 Taxes
72.6
$186
$202
$363 $478 $625 Taxes
$288 $314
$343 Airfare Fees
130.7
$335
172.2
$442 $577
Airfare Fees
224.9
* Airline revenue includes airfare, baggage fees and reservation change/cancellation fees as collected and reported per domestic round-trip origin-destination passenger Sources: DOT O&D Survey (Data Bank 1A) and Bureau of Labor Statistics for the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
airlines.org
Revenue Gains from Ancillary Services Slowing But Continues to Help Defray a Portion of Rising Operating Costs
2008
Sources: A4A analysis of data provided by Alaska, American, Delta, JetBlue, Southwest/AirTran, United and US Airways
10
airlines.org
AA
AA-
Toyota BP eBay
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Starbucks
ABBB BBBBBB-
Alaska Allegiant
BBBB-
BBB+ B+ B B BB-
BBD
airlines.org
www.airlines.org