ENVIRONMETRICS Environmetrics 2001; 12: 327345 (DOI: 10.1002/env.

476)

El Nino, climate change, and Southern African climate

Simon J. Mason*
International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0230, USA

SUMMARY The El Nino phenomenon involves a large-scale warming of the equatorial eastern and central Pacic Ocean. Recent developments in the El NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon have raised concerns about climate change. In this review paper, these recent developments are critically assessed and forecasts of possible future changes are reviewed. Since the late-1970s, El Nino episodes have been unusually recurrent, while the frequency of strong La Nina events has been low. Prolonged/recurrent warm event conditions of the rst half of the 1990s were the result of the persistence of an anomalously warm pool near the date line, which, in turn, may be part of an abrupt warming trend in tropical sea-surface temperatures that occurred in the late-1970s. The abrupt warming of tropical sea-surface temperatures has been attributed to the enhanced-greenhouse effect, but may be indicative of inter-decadal variability: earlier changes in the frequency of ENSO events and earlier persistent El Nino and La Nina sequences have occurred. Most forecasts of ENSO variability in a doubled-CO2 climate suggest that the recent changes in the tropical Pacic are anomalous. Of potential concern, however, is a possible reduction in the predictability of ENSO events given a warmer background climate. El Nino events usually are associated with below-normal rainfall over much of southern Africa. Mechanisms for this inuence on southern African climate are discussed, and the implications of possible changes in ENSO variability on the climate of the region are assessed. Recent observed changes in southern African climate and their possible relationships with trends in ENSO variability are investigated. The El Nino inuence on rainfall over southern Africa occurs largely because of a weakening of tropical convection over the subcontinent. A warming of the Indian Ocean during El Nino events appears to be important in providing a teleconnection from the equatorial Pacic Ocean. The abrupt warming of the tropical Pacic and Indian oceans in the late-1970s is probably partly responsible for increasing air temperatures over southern Africa, and may have contributed to a prolongation of predominantly dry conditions. A return to a wet phase appears to have occurred, despite the persistence of anomalously high sea-surface temperatures associated with the late-1970s warming, and a record breaking El Nino in 1997/98. Copyright # 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. key word: climate change; El Nino/Southern Oscillation; rainfall variability; sea-surface temperatures; southern Africa

1. INTRODUCTION One of the most signicant advances in the atmospheric sciences in recent years has been the development of an ability to predict oceanatmosphere variability in the equatorial Pacic Ocean
*Correspondence to: S. J. Mason, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0235, USA. Tel: 1 858 822 2574; fax: 1 858 534 8561. E-mail: smason@ucsd.edu

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(Carson, 1998). Occasional basin-wide warming or cooling of equatorial sea-surface temperatures, known as El Nino and La Nina events, together with an associated oscillation of atmospheric pressure over the South Pacic Ocean, known as the Southern Oscillation (Allan, Lindesay & Parker, 1996), can have global climate repercussions. Both extremes of the El NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon have been associated with temperature and rainfall anomalies around the world (Ropelewski & Halpert, 1987, 1989; Halpert & Ropelewski, 1992; Trenberth, Branstator, Karoly, Kumar, Lau & Ropelewski, 1998). Southern Africa is not immune from the effects of ENSO, with Pacic warm events frequently being concurrent with droughts in much of the region south of about 10 S (Lindesay, Harrison & Haffner, 1986; Janowiak, 1988; Lindesay, 1988; Jury, McQueen & Levey, 1994; Mason & Jury, 1997). The percentage of times that DecemberFebruary precipitation has been below-normal (in the driest third of climatological totals) during the eight warmest El Nino episodes between 1950/51 and 1996/97 is shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Percentage of times that observed DecemberFebruary rainfall totals during the eight warmest years El Nino events have been within the driest third of all years

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ENSO events probably have occurred over the last 5000 years (Eneld, 1992; Sandweiss, Richardson, Reitz, Rollins, & Maasch, 1996, 1999; Rodbell, Seltzer, Anderson, Abbott, Eneld & Newman, 1999), and although there are indications that their frequency has been variable, recent changes in ENSO variability have sparked concern about the possible impacts of climate change on the equatorial Pacic Ocean (Hunt, 1999). For most of the rst half of the 1990s, El Nino conditions were notably recurrent or persistent (Wuetrich, 1995; Trenberth & Hoar, 1996; Goddard & Graham, 1997; Mason, 1997; Rajagopalan, Hall & Cane, 1997; Wallace, Rasmusson, Mitchell, Kousky, Sarachik & Von Storch, 1998). Sea-surface temperatures were above average for most of this period, and the Southern Oscillation Index (Troup, 1965) was predominantly negative (Figure 2). La Nina events have been relatively infrequent. The latest La Nina of 1998/99 is only the second moderate to strong event since 1977, whereas El Nino conditions have occurred in 1982/83, 1986/87, for most of 19911995, and in 1997/98. In comparison, the numbers of strong La Nina and El Nino episodes were equal during the period 18761976. Apart from these recent changes in the frequencies of ENSO events, additional concern has been raised about possible changes in the intensity of El Nino conditions. The 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Nino episodes were the two strongest in the period of instrumental records (Wright, 1989; Trenberth, 1991; Davey & Anderson, 1998; Wolter & Timlin, 1998), and possibly the strongest for at least 500 years (Quinn, Neal & Antunez de Mayolo, 1987). An additional important change in recent ENSO events is that their predictability appears to have decreased (Kirtman & Schopf, 1998). The 1992/93 warm event was not anticipated (Kerr, 1993), and is not even hindcasted successfully by many dynamical models of the coupled oceanatmosphere system of the tropical Pacic Ocean (Chen, Zebiak, Busalacch, & Cane, 1995; Ji, Leetma & Kousky, 1996). Forecasts of the 1997/98 event were disappointing (Barnston, He & Glanti, 1999; Landsea & Knaff, 2000), with only a few models indicating the development of strong El Nino conditions even after the event had become well established (Anderson & Davey, 1998). The forecast skill of the oceanatmosphere system in the tropical Pacic during the 1990s has been poorer than during the 1970s and 1980s (Chen, Zebiak, Busalacch & Cane, 1995; Balmaseda, Davey & Anderson, 1995; Ji, Leetmaa & Kousky, 1996; Kirtman & Schopf, 1998), and is matched by similar decreases in forecast skill for other atmospheric phenomena this decade, such as North Atlantic tropical storms and Indian monsoon rains (Hastenrath, 1995). The possibility of changes in the frequency and intensity of ENSO events, and of their predictability, are of direct concern in the southern African region. Because ENSO events are generally associated with signicant rainfall anomalies over most of southern Africa (Mason & Jury, 1997), long-term trends in ENSO variability are likely to affect the rainfall climatology of the region. Further, any change in the predictability of ENSO events would affect the region's ability to mitigate the effects of climate variability, since ENSO-related indices are important inputs into operational and experimental seasonal forecast models for the region (Jury, McQueen & Lavey, 1994; Hastenrath, Greischar & van Heerden, 1995; Mason, 1998; Mattes & Mason, 1998; Landman & Mason, 1999a), and are potentially important as direct input into agriculture- and industrial-related decision-making processes (Nicholls, 1988). In this review paper, evidence for long-term variability in the ENSO phenomenon and of simulated ENSO-like variability in a greenhouse-enhanced climate are critically examined. Mechanisms for an inuence of ENSO variability on southern African climate are discussed, and the implications of possible changes in ENSO variability on the climate of the region are assessed. Recent observed changes in southern African climate are investigated, and possible relationships with recent trends in ENSO variability are considered.
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Figure 2. Monthly mean Southern Oscillation Index solid line from 1980 to 1998, and area-averaged sea-surface temperature anomalies over the NINO3 region dashed line. Both indices are calculated with respect to the 19611990 average

2. ENSO VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 2.1. Observational evidence for low-frequency variability of the ENSO phenomenon While irregular oscillations between warm (El Nino) and cold (La Nina) conditions at periods of about 310 or more years may be considered typical (Trenberth & Shea, 1987; Trenberth, 1991; Ropelewski, Halpert & Wang, 1992), inter-decadal and inter-millennial changes in the magnitude and frequency of ENSO events have occurred (Reiter, 1978; Zhang & Casey, 1992; Diaz & Pulwarty, 1994; Gu & Philander, 1995; Sandweiss, Richardson, Reitz, Rollins, & Maasch, 1996, 1999; Latif, Kleeman & Eckert, 1997; Rajagopalan, Hall & Cane, 1997; Rodbell, Seltzer, Anderson, Abbott, Eneld & Newman, 1999). The inter-decadal changes in frequency appear to have been independent of background changes in the mean climate state (Eneld & Cid, 1991; Diaz & Pulwarty, 1992; Eneld, 1992; Lough, 1992; Gu & Philander, 1995), such as are associated with the Little Ice Age for example
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(Quinn, 1992). The medieval warm period may provide an exception since there is some evidence to suggest that the frequency of ENSO events decreased during the period 10001400, when the background climate state was warmer (Anderson, 1992; Wang & Ropelewski, 1995). Similarly, during the warmer climate of the early mid-Holocene, ENSO variability was weak (Sandweiss, Richardson, Reitz, Rollins, & Maasch, 1996, 1999; Rodbell, Seltzer, Anderson, Abbott, Eneld & Newman, 1999). However, reconstruction of ENSO events from proxy data is difcult because of the need for highresolution data (Allan & D'Arrigo, 1999), and so caution should be exercised in drawing conclusions about changes in ENSO variability before the period of instrumental records (Solow, 1995). During the period of instrumental records, there is clear evidence of inter-decadal variability in the ENSO phenomenon. The magnitude of ENSO events during most of the second half of the 19th century was relatively low (Lough, 1992). Similarly, with the exception of the prolonged 19391942 El Nino, the magnitude of ENSO events was relatively weak during the period 19201960, when the variability of atmospheric pressure at Darwin and of sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacic Ocean decreased (Elliott & Angell, 1988). The frequency and intensity of ENSO episodes, as measured by the 15-year running standard deviation of the Southern Oscillation Index, increased after the late-1960s (Figure 3), but the high intensity of events over the last few decades is not exceptional: similar levels of sea-surface temperature variability and of variability in the Southern Oscillation Index were evident between about 1900 and 1915 (Trenberth & Shea, 1987; Gu & Philander, 1995; Rajagopalan, Hall & Cane, 1997). 2.2 Change in the background climate state

Since the late-1970s, the ENSO system has moved into a period of predominantly warm event (El Nino) conditions, whilst maintaining a high level of inter-annual variability (Kerr, 1992). There have been only two strong La Nina events since 1977, whereas El Nino events have occurred in 1982/83, 1986/87, for most of 19911995, and in 1997/98. In comparison, the numbers of strong La Nina and El Nino events were equal during the period 18761976. The recent shift toward the predominance of El Nino-type conditions is reected in a decrease in the mean value of the Southern Oscillation Index (Trenberth, 1990; Trenberth & Hurrell, 1994; Trenberth & Hoar, 1996, 1997; Solow, 1995; Harrison & Larkin, 1997; Rajagopalan, Hall & Cane, 1997). The downward shift in the mean may not simply be a reection of an increase in the frequency and/or magnitude of low-phase (El Nino) events, but may reect a change in the background climate state (Graham, 1994; Kleeman, Colman, Smith & Power, 1996). The change is associated with a fairly abrupt warming in sea-surface temperatures in the Indian and Pacic Oceans that occurred in the late-1970s (Nitta & Yamada, 1989; Trenberth, 1990; Kerr, 1992; Nitta & Kachi, 1994; Allan, Lindesay & Reason, 1995; Graham, 1995; Wang, 1995), resulting in mean sea-surface temperatures that are more reminiscent of El Nino conditions (Figure 4). This shift toward predominantly warm conditions is consistent with an observed decrease in the sea-level difference between the east and west equatorial Pacic Ocean (Posmentier, Cane & Zebiak, 1989). The warming has been attributed to the enhanced greenhouse effect (Kerr, 1993; Kleeman, Colman, Smith & Power, 1996), although the possibility of inter-decadal variability cannot be ruled out (Miller, Cayan, Barnett, Graham & Oberhuber, 1994; Trenberth & Hurrell, 1994; Allan, Lindesay & Reason 1995; Reason, Allan & Lindesay, 1996a,b; Knutson, Manabe & Gu, 1997; Latif, Kleeman & Eckert, 1997; Zhang, Wallace & Battiski, 1997). As a result of the post-1977 changes in the background mean state, consequent changes in the onset and timing of El Nino events have been detected (Kleeman, 1993; Wang & Weisberg, 1994; Nagai, Kitamura, Endoh & Tokioka, 1995; Wang, 1995; Mitchell & Wallace, 1996). Prior to the abrupt
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Figure 3. Standard deviations of the monthly mean Southern Oscillation Index, measured over running 15-year periods from 1880 to 1998. The index is calculated with respect to the 19611990 average. The dotted lines represent approximately 95% condence limits. The year on the x-axis represents the middle of the 15-year period

increase in sea-surface temperatures in 1977, warming off the east coast of South America, in response to weakened south-east trade winds, occurred about 3 months before warming in the central Pacic. Since the change in the mean state, the central Pacic warming has been occurring rst, implying that anomalous westerly winds in the western Pacic may have become more important in the initiation of El Nino events. 2.3 The prolonged/recurrent El Nino conditions of the early-1990s

Prolonged El Nino sequences during the period of instrumental records have occurred in 1894 1897, 19111915, the early-1940s, and the early-1990s (Mason, 1997; Allan & D'Arrigo, 1999). Prolonged La Nina sequences have occurred also, and are evident in instrumental data for the periods
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Figure 4. Change in annual mean sea-surface temperatures between the 21-year periods 19561976 and 19771997

18781880, 19081911, 19161918, 19201923, 19541957 and 19731976 (Allan & D'Arrigo, 1999). Proxy records suggest that other prolonged warm event sequences have occurred over the past 500 years, including two 5 year periods (17821786 and 18351839) and possibly an 8-year period (17901797) (Allan & D'Arrigo, 1999). It seems likely that prolonged El Nino events can be caused in different ways, but some general hypotheses can be suggested based on the instrumental data for the 19111915, 19391942 and 1991 1995 sequences (Mason, 1997). During a prolonged sequence, the initial El Nino apparently evolves fairly typically: westerly wind anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacic generate a downwelling, eastward-moving equatorial Kelvin wave, producing positive sea-surface temperature anomalies. However, the same westerly wind anomalies generate slower, westward-moving, offequatorial upwelling Rossby waves, which usually reect at the western boundary a few months later in the form of upwelling Kelvin waves. The reection of these upwelling Rossby waves at the western boundary provides a mechanism for the eventual erosion of El Nino conditions. The succession of downwelling, followed by upwelling Kelvin waves, is known as the delayed oscillator (Suarez & Schopf, 1988; Graham & White, 1988; Allan, Lindesay & Parker, 1996). During recurrent or persistent El Nino episodes, the upwelling Rossby waves fail to reect at the western boundary in the form of sufciently strong Kelvin waves, thus representing a failure of the delayed oscillator mechanism (Mason, 1997). During the 1990s prolonged warm event, the persistence of an anomalously warm pool near the date line permitted the penetration of MaddenJulian wave activity far into the central Pacic (Kessler & McPhaden, 1995; Goddard & Graham, 1997; Mason, 1997). (MaddenJulian waves are large centres of organized atmospheric convection that propagate slowly eastward, and with a period of
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about 3060 days. They usually dissipate over the central Pacic as they encounter lower sea-surface temperatures.) The westerly wind anomalies associated with the MaddenJulian waves were responsible for the generation of successive downwelling Kelvin waves that contributed to redevelopment of warm conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacic after the initial 1991/92 event. Causes for the persistence of the warm pool are unknown (Goddard & Graham, 1997), but the feature may be a manifestation of the general warming trend in the Pacic Ocean discussed above (Kleeman, Colman, Smith & Power, 1996). 2.4 Changes in predictability

There is clear evidence of inter-decadal variability in the predictability of ENSO events. Predictability appears to have peaked in the 1980s and to have decreased since the 1991/92 El Nino event (Chen, Zebiak, Busalacchi & Cane, 1995; Balmaseda, Davey & Anderson, 1995; Ji, Leetmaa & Kousky, 1996; Kirtman & Schopf, 1998). The 1993 and 1994 warm events were not anticipated (Kerr, 1993), and forecasts of the 1997/98 event were disappointing (Barnston, He & Glantz, 1999). The failure to anticipate the 1993 El Nino was evident in both dynamical and statistical forecasting models. The statistical models probably failed partly because of the uniqueness of the event, but the failure of the dynamical predictions may be a reection of subtle changes in ENSO dynamics. Most dynamical models of the Pacic Ocean demonstrate ENSO-like variability and derive their predictive skill from the delayed-oscillator mechanism (Battisti, 1988; Mantua & Battisti, 1994). Predictability of ENSO is greatest, therefore, when the delayed oscillator mechanism dominates the variability of sea-surface temperature anomalies (Kirtman & Schopf, 1998). During the recurrent El Nino conditions of the early-1990s, the delayed oscillator was not the dominant mechanism of variability (Goddard & Graham, 1997), and so predictability was accordingly low. Low predictability of ENSO events at lead times of more than about 1 year has been attributed in part to the weakness of ocean-atmosphere coupling in the tropical Pacic during the boreal spring. This annual weakening of oceanatmosphere coupling is generally responsible for a loss of predictability in about March, and is referred to as the `springtime barrier' (Balmaseda, Davey & Anderson, 1995; Webster, 1995; Davey, Anderson & Lawrence, 1996; Moore & Kleeman, 1996; Latif, Anderson, Barnett, Cane, Kleeman, Leetmaa, O'Brien, Rosati & Schneider, 1998). The spring barrier is most well dened during decades of relatively poor predictability (Balmaseda, Davey & Anderson, 1995; Chen, Zebiak, Busalacchi & Cane, 1995; Davey, Anderson & Lawrence, 1996), but the failure of the dynamical model predictions to forecast the 1993 event is an independent issue, since the unexpected evolution of events occurred in the boreal winter. The changes in the onset of El Nino events, as discussed above, may be partly responsible for the loss of forecast skill. Any increase in importance of activity in the western Pacic is likely to weaken forecast skill because of systematic failures in the models, which are unable to simulate adequately observed variability in the Pacic Ocean west of about 160 W (Cane, 1991, 1992; Gutzler, Kiladis, Meehl, Weickmann & Wheeler, 1994). However, it would be incorrect to assert that the change in onset is wholly responsible for the recent decrease in forecastability: the 1982/83 El Nino, for example, is successfully hindcasted using data for early-1981, and the delayed onset of the 19911992 event was similarly forecast successfully. Precise reasons for the loss of predictability of ENSO events in the 1990s are unknown. The failure of the delayed oscillator mechanism, and low-frequency variability in the importance of Madden Julian wave activity in ENSO dynamics are probably important contributors (Slingo, 1998; Yu & Reinecker, 1998; McPhaden, 1999). What is certain is that early estimates of the forecast skill of
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dynamical models, illustrating forecastability up to 18 months, are overly optimistic (see also Webster, 1995; Anderson & Davey, 1998; Barnston, He & Glantz, 1999; Landsea & Knaff, 2000). 2.5 El Nino events in a greenhouse-enhanced climate

Early estimates of the impact of a greenhouse-enhanced climate on sea-surface temperatures suggested that a uniform warming throughout the tropics of about 12 C would occur with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 (Meehl & Washington, 1986). However, important oceanatmosphere and cloud feedback processes, which are not represented adequately in the early generation models, are likely to complicate considerably the tropical expression of a global warming signal (Ramanathan & Collins, 1991; Wallace, 1992; Fu, del Genio, Rossow & Liu, 1992; Hartman & Michelsen, 1993; Timmermann, Oberhuber, Bacher, Esch, Latif & Roeckner, 1999a). Since the late-1980s, the coupling of oceanic and atmospheric general circulation models has enabled sensitivity studies relating to the ocean-atmosphere system as a whole. Although these fully coupled models can simulate the important ocean atmosphere and feedback processes, because of their generally coarse resolution there are a number of systematic errors that result in poorer performances than from some of the high-resolution models (Meehl, 1995). One important restriction is that the control ENSO-like variability in coupled models is typically about a half of the observed variability, although the simulated frequencies of events are generally realistic (Meehl, 1991, 1993, 1995; Schneider & Kinter, 1994; Nagai, Kitamura, Endoh & Tokioka, 1995; Tett, 1995; Knutson & Manabe, 1998; Timmermann, Latif, Grotzner & Voss, 1999b). Sensitivity studies of changes in ENSO and ENSO-related variability therefore have to be approached with caution. In a doubled-CO2 climate, mean tropical sea-surface temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than at present, but there is little indication of strong increases in ENSO variability, frequency, or predictability (Knutson & Manabe, 1994, 1995, 1998; Tett, 1995; Meehl & Washington, 1996; Knutson, Manabe & Gu, 1997; Timmermann, Latif, Grotzner & Voss, 1999b; Meehl, Zwiers, Evans, Knutson, Mearns & Whetton, 2000), except for possible increases in the strength and persistence of La Nina events given a warmer background climate (Timmermann, 1999; Timmermann, Oberhuber, Bacher, Esch, Latif & Roeckner, 1999a). The lack of any signicant change in variability is attributed to an increase in atmospheric static stability, a decrease in the time-mean zonal sea-surface temperature gradient across the equatorial Pacic (because of a larger warming in the east), and to enhanced evaporative damping of sea-surface temperature anomalies (Hoffert, Flannery, Callegari, Hsich & Wiscombe, 1983; Wallace, 1992; Hartmann & Michelson, 1993; Waliser, 1996). Even without a large increase in variability, however, atmospheric anomalies in the tropics are expected to strengthen in response to ENSO events in a greenhouse-enhanced climate because of the warmer background climatic state. In the mid-latitudes, signicant changes in extra-tropical teleconnections may occur, with possible changes in the sign of correlations between the Southern Oscillation and the atmosphere in the southern hemisphere (Meehl & Branstator, 1992; Meehl, Branstator & Washington, 1993). 3. ENSO AND SOUTHERN AFRICAN CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 3.1 The inuence of ENSO variability on Southern African climate

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm events are frequently associated with drier than average conditions over much of southern Africa (Tyson, 1986; Ropelewski & Halpert, 1987, 1989; Moron,
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Bigot & Roucou, 1995; Shinoda & Kawamura, 1996; Mason & Jury, 1997; Nicholson & Kim, 1997; Rocha & Simmonds, 1997a; Moron & Ward, 1998; Mason & Tyson, 2000). There is a danger in overemphasizing the inuence of ENSO variability on rainfall in the region: the variance explained by a linear association is only about 20% (Lindesay, 1988; Main & Hewitson, 1995; Waylen & Henworth, 1996). In addition, the number of times that rainfall has been in the driest third of recorded amounts during strong El Nino events is signicantly high only over an area centered on southern Zambia, and in parts of South Africa (darkest three levels of shading in Figure 1). Detailed reviews of the mechanisms by which variability of the tropical Pacic Ocean can affect the atmosphere over southern Africa are provided by Mason & Jury (1997) and Mason & Tyson (2000), and so only a brief description is provided here. Over South Africa, the inuence of ENSO events on rainfall is strongest during the summer peak rainfall months of December-March, when ENSO events typically have reached maturity and when the tropical atmospheric circulation is usually dominant over most of the subcontinent (Lindesay, 1988; Mason & Jury, 1997). Further north, over Zimbabwe, the early- and late-season rains (October & March) are more severely affected than the mid-season. These differences in the timing of the inuence of ENSO events on rainfall within southern Africa suggest that the southward and northward migration of the tropical convergence zones are affected (Waylen & Henworth, 1996; Makarau & Jury, 1997a). During the austral summer, tropical air penetrates southward, and the convergence zones usually reach about 20 S in January (Makarau & Jury, 1997b). During El Nino events, however, convergence frequently is weakened and shifted to the east and north (Lindesay, Harrison & Haffner, 1986; Mason & Jury, 1997), resulting in predominantly dry conditions over much of southern Africa. The atmospheric response over southern Africa to ENSO events probably occurs partly because of associated changes in sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Indian Ocean (Nicholson, 1997; Nicholson & Kim, 1997; Rocha & Simmonds, 1997b; Goddard & Graham, 1999). Changes in wind stress & the radiation budget result in a warming of the Indian Ocean during El Nino events with a lag of about 3 months (Cadet, 1985; Hastenrath, Nicklis & Greischar, 1993; Latif, Sterl, Assenbaum, Junge & Maier-Reimer, 1994; Latif & Barnett, 1995; Nagai, Kitamura, Endoh & Tokioka, 1995; Tourre & White, 1995, 1997; Nicholson, 1997; Yu & Reinecker, 1999). Increased heat uxes over the warmer oceanic areas of the tropical Indian Ocean increase the in situ atmospheric instability and weaken the pressure gradient onto the subcontinent. A weakening of moisture inux over the land from the east therefore occurs, and convection over the ocean is strengthened (Jury, 1992, 1996; Jury & Pathack, 1993; Jury, Pathack & Waliser, 1993, 1996; Mason, Lindesay & Tyson, 1994; Mason, 1995; Tennant, 1996; Crimp, 1997; Rocha & Simmonds, 1997a,b). An additional inuence of ENSO events on southern Africa occurs via the Southern Hemisphere standing waves (Pittock, 1973; Trenberth, 1975, 1979, 1980; Rogers & van Loon, 1982; Karoly, Hope & Jones, 1996). A northward shift of the westerlies and a weakening of amplitude of the waves occur during warm events (Lindesay, 1988). The westerlies over southern Africa bring considerably less moisture than air from the Indian Ocean (D'Abreton & Tyson, 1996), and so generally are characteristic of dry conditions in the region (Mason & Tyson, 2000). The unusual conditions in the Pacic Ocean during the early-1990s may have contributed to a prolongation of predominantly dry conditions over southern Africa. The rainfall of the region has been characterized by alternating periods of predominantly dry years, followed by predominantly wet years lasting in total about two decades (Tyson, 1986; Mason & Jury, 1997; Tyson, Sturman, Fitzharris, Mason & Owens, 1997; Kruger, 1999; Mason & Tyson, 2000). After widespread wet conditions in the 1970s, the region was dry for much of the 1980s, and the dry conditions persisted into the mid-1990s. A return to a wet phase appears to have occurred, despite the persistence of anomalously high
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sea-surface temperatures associated with the late-1970s warming, and a record-breaking El Nino in 1997/98. 3.2 Robustness of the association between ENSO, Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures and Southern African rainfall variability Although temporal variability in the strength of the association between the Southern Oscillation and rainfall over southern Africa has occurred (Moron & Ward, 1998), reecting inter-decadal variability in the strength and frequency of ENSO events, the association is considered reasonably stable (Lindesay & Vogel, 1990; Landman & Mason, 1999b). The failure of the 1997/98 El Nino to produce widespread drought across southern Africa may be a reection of inter-decadal variability (Kruger, 1999), but if so, the absence of widespread heavy rains during the 1998/99 La Nina would be anomalous. The occurrence of normal to above-normal rainfall in the south-eastern part of the region during 1997/98 was probably a result of an unusual zonal sea-surface temperature gradient across the tropical Indian Ocean, involving exceptionally high temperatures in the west (Figure 5) (Yu & Reinecker, 1999). Although anomalously high sea-surface temperatures in the central and western tropical Indian Ocean frequently have been responsible for dry conditions over southern Africa (Walker, 1990; Jury, 1992, 1996; Walker & Shillington, 1990; Jury & Pathack, 1993; Mason, 1995; Makarau & Jury, 1997b; Mason & Jury, 1997; Rocha & Simmonds, 1997a), since the late-1970s an important change in the nature of oceanatmosphere interaction in the region appears to have occurred (Landman & Mason, 1999b). The correlation between rainfall over parts of southern Africa and seasurface temperatures in the western tropical Indian Ocean has changed sign (Figure 6), such that anomalously warm conditions since the late-1970s are associated with wet, and not dry, conditions (Lindesay & Jury, 1991; Mason & Jury, 1997; Landman & Mason, 1999b; Mason & Tyson, 2000). It is unclear why the increase in the mean temperatures of the tropical Indian Ocean should have caused a change in the nature of oceanatmosphere interaction in the region. However, the change is simulated, at least qualitatively, by an atmospheric general circulation model forced with observed sea-surface temperatures, and is probably real (Landman & Mason, 1999b). It is not inconceivable that an increase in temperatures in the tropical Indian Ocean could contribute to increased rainfall over southern Africa since the area is thought to be an important source of atmospheric moisture throughout the summer rainfall season (D'Abreton & Lindesay, 1993; D'Abreton & Tyson, 1995, 1996; Makarau & Jury, 1997b; Crimp & Mason, 1999). 3.3 ENSO variability and climate change over Southern Africa

The abrupt warming in 1977 in the tropical Indian and Pacic oceans (Figure 4) is synchronous with notable changepoints in the climate of southern Africa, and in the atmospheric circulation of the Southern Hemisphere (Trenberth, 1979; Rogers & van Loon, 1982; van Loon, Kidson & Mullan, 1993; Hurrell & van Loon, 1994). Air temperatures over southern Africa have increased rapidly since the 1970s (Hulme, 1996; Hulme, Arntzen, Downing, Leemans, Malcolm, Reynard, Ringrose, Rogers, Chiziya, Conway, Joyce, Jain, Magadza, Markham & Mulenga, 1996; Hughes & Balling, 1996; Tyson, Mason, Jones & Cooper, 1998), probably as a direct effect of the observed warming in sea-surface temperatures (Graham, 1995). The warming trend is reected in increases in the frequency of extreme temperature maxima (Jury & Majodina, 1997). Similar responses in rainfall since the late-1970s have occurred, with decreased annual rainfall totals in parts of Zimbabwe and eastern South Africa being evident (Nicholson, 1993; Hulme, 1996; Hulme, Arntzen, Downing, Leemans, Malcolm, Reynard,
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Figure 5. Standard departures of sea-surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean during November 1997. The means and variances are calculated with respect to a 19821996 climatology

Figure 6. Changes in correlation from 1957/581976/77 to 1977/781996/97 between 3-month mean DecemberFebruary sea surface temperatures and rainfall over the central interior of South Africa (Landman & Mason, 1999)

Ringrose, Rogers, Chiziya, Conway, Joyce, Jain, Magadza, Markham & Mulenga, 1996; Mason, 1996; Gondwe, Jury & Mulenga, 1997). The changes in rainfall may be a reection of inter-decadal variability rather than a simple response to the abrupt warming trend in sea-surface temperatures (Mason, 1996; Tyson, Sturman, Fitzharris, Mason & Owens, 1997). Additional evidence for climatic change over southern Africa that is unrelated to ENSO variability is reviewed by Mason & Jury (1997).
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4. DISCUSSION AND SUMMARY The equatorial Pacic Ocean is characterized by large-scale warming and cooling events, which occur about every three of four years on an average. During a warm event, known as El Nino, sea-surface temperatures can increase by almost 4 C over a quarter of the circumference of the globe. The disruption to the overlying atmosphere can have near-global repercussions. El Nino episodes have been unusually recurrent since the late-1970s compared to La Nina events, culminating in the long El Nino sequence of 19911995. The prolonged/recurrent warm event conditions of the rst half of the 1990s were the result of the persistence of an anomalously warm pool near the date line, facilitating the penetration of westerly winds into the western equatorial Pacic Ocean, which can have an important inuence on the development of El Nino events. The warm pool, in turn, may be part of an abrupt warming trend in tropical sea-surface temperatures that occurred in the late-1970s. The abrupt warming of tropical sea-surface temperatures has been attributed to the enhanced-greenhouse effect, but may equally be indicative of inter-decadal variability. Since earlier changes in the frequency of El NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) events and earlier persistent El Nino and La Nina sequences can be detected in the historical and palaeoclimatic records, the recent changes in El Nino events are not necessarily an indication of climatic change. The abrupt warming in sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Indian and Pacic Oceans has been responsible for changes in the dynamics of the inter-annual variability in the Pacic Ocean and globally. The warming may be partly responsible for a decrease in forecast skill of ENSO events during the 1990s, and there is concern that there may be a reduction in the inherent predictability of ENSO given a warmer background climate. However, ENSO episodes during the 1980s were successfully forecast, as was the delayed onset of the 19911992 event. What is certain is that earlier estimates of predictability with useful skill at lead-times of more than 18 months are overly optimistic, and 6 months is probably a more realistic limit. Most forecasts of ENSO variability in a doubled-CO2 climate indicate little change in the frequency and intensity of ENSO events, suggesting that the recent changes in the tropical Pacic are anomalous. However, palaeological evidence suggests that ENSO variability has been weak, and even non-existent in warmer background climates in the past. The conditions during the early-1990s may provide a realistic analogue: the zonal temperature gradient in the equatorial Pacic was shallow, and temperature variability was weak. El Nino events are usually associated with below-normal rainfall over much of southern Africa. A warming of the Indian Ocean during El Nino events appears to be important in providing a teleconnection between southern Africa and the equatorial Pacic Ocean by weakening tropical convection over the subcontinent. In addition, a northward shift of the westerlies contributes to the reduction of rainfall usually experienced during El Nino events. The late-1970s warming of tropical sea-surface temperatures was probably largely responsible for an increase in air temperatures over southern Africa at about the same time, and may have contributed to a decrease in rainfall over the subcontinent. The rainfall of the region has been characterized by alternating periods of predominantly dry years, followed by predominantly wet years lasting in total about two decades. After widespread wet conditions in the 1970s, the region was dry from the late1970s for much of the 1980s, and these dry conditions persisted into the mid-1990s. The unusual conditions in the Pacic Ocean during the early-1990s may have been partly responsible for the prolongation of the predominantly dry conditions over southern Africa. A return to a wet phase appears to have occurred, despite the persistence of anomalously high tropical sea-surface tempera tures associated with the late-1970s warming, and a record-sbreaking El Nino in 1997/98.
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This paper was funded in part by a grant/cooperative agreement from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reect the views of NOAA or any of its sub-agencies. Sea-surface temperature data were supplied by the United Kingdom Meteorological Ofce, and the rainfall data were supplied by the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia. Useful comments by L. Goddard are gratefully acknowledged.

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