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OPIM 101 Management Science, Semester 3B, 10/11 Assignment 3: Decision Analysis,Project Management Due: Saturday 9th July

2011 Maximum marks for assignment is 100. 1a) Probability (total: 5 marks) Market Researchers, has been hired to perform a study to determine if the market for a new product will be good or poor. In similar studies performed in the past, whenever the market actually was good, the market research study indicated that it would be good 85% of the time. On the other hand, whenever the market actually was poor, the market study incorrectly predicted it would be good 20% of the time. Before the study is performed, it is believed that there is a 70% chance the market will be good. When Market Researchers performs the study for this product, the results predict the market will be good. Given the results of this study, what is the probability that the market is actually good? (5 marks)

1b) Decision Analysis problem (Television network) (total: 20 marks) 10th Edition, Chapter 12, Question 9 9th Edition, Chapter 12, Question 6

The textbook uses a) Maximax, b) Maximin and c) Equal likelihood. (9 marks) d) In addition, use Minimax regret to determine the best option. (3 marks) e) Using the Hurwicz criteria, is the coecient of optimism. Under what range of will one choose Army vs Navy? (8 marks)

2) Decision Analysis problem (Machine shop, Military) (total: 20 marks) a) 10th Edition, Chapter 12, Question 15 9th Edition, Chapter 12, Question 10

i) We have done this in class using expected value. Draw the decision tree. (4 marks)

b) Decision Analysis problem (Machine shop, Military) 10th Edition, Chapter 12, Question 40

9th Edition, Chapter 12, Question 23 (16 marks)

3) Utility Problem (total: 15 marks) In the past few years, the trac problems in Issac Pauls hometon have gotten worse. Now, Broad Street is congested about half the time. The normal travel time to work for Issac is only 15 minutes when Broad Street is used and there is no congestion. With congestion, however, it takes Issac 40 minutes to get to work. If Issac decides to take the expressway, it will take 30 minutes regardless of the trac conditions. His utility for travel time is: u(15 minutes)=0.9, u(30 minutes)=0.7, and u(40 minutes)=0.2.

a) Which route will minimize Issacs expected travel time? b) Which route will maximize Issacs utility? c) When it comes to travel time, is Issac a risk seeker or a risk avoider? d) Suppose that the estimate of the probability that Broad Street, p, is congested is not accurate. Using the travel time, what is the range of p such that Issac will always choose the expressway?

1) Project Management problem (total: 15 marks) 10th Edition, Chapter 8, Question 8 9th Edition, Chapter 8, Question 4

i) Find ES,EF,LS,LF, slack for each activity and the critical path manually (as stated by the question in textbook). (7 marks)

ii) Probabilistic Activity Time 10th Edition, Chapter 8, Question 14 9th Edition, Chapter 8, Question 9 (8 marks)

2)Project Management problem (total: 15 marks) 10th Edition, Chapter 8, Question 6 9th Edition, Chapter 8, Question 3

i) Find ES,EF,LS,LF, slack for each activity and the critical path manually (as stated by the question in textbook). (7 marks)

ii) Using AOA convention, formulate a LP model to solve for the critical path. Use the AOA network given in AOApic.jpg. (8 marks)

iii)Project Crashing problem (total: 10 marks) 10th Edition, Chapter 8, Question 34 9th Edition, Chapter 8, Question 25

In this problem, you are ONLY required to present your LP model. You do not need to use excel to solve the problem as the problem in the textbook suggest. (10 marks) END Decision Analysis Supplementary Problems (Not Graded) :

10th Edition, Chapter 11, Question 10, 11 9th Edition, Chapter 11, Question 8, 9 10th Edition, Chapter 12, Question 12, 18, 29, 45 9th Edition, Chapter 12, Question 8, 12, 19, 27

Hints: 10th Edition, Chapter 12, Question 29 9th Edition, Chapter 12, Question 19

What are your possible decisions? Eg, Should I order 20? Should I order 26? Does it make sense to order 18? Project Management Supplementary Problems (Not Graded) :

10th Edition, Chapter 8, Question 12, 3, 11, 29 9th Edition, Chapter 8, Question 8, 2, 7, 21

Note:

You are expected to know how to derived the AOA from AON network. END

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