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MATH SL PORTFOLIO FISH PRODUCTION

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Fish production

MATH SL PORTFOLIO FISH PRODUCTION Introduction The goal of this portfolio is to study the commercial fishing in a certain country in the sea environment as well as fish farms. The data from fish caught in the sea and fish from the fish farms. The data was obtained from the UN statistics Division Common Database. The main purpose of this task is to define suitable variables and come up with parameters/constraints of the data given and then using technology, plot the data points into a graph to develop and discuss a model for the different data points for both environments that relate to the trends of their data. I will be using different types of software that will help me to develop the models for each set of data points for both the environments; I will be using separate graphs for each type of environment. After I have deduced the functions and models, I will be using the functions and models to describe the current trends observed by each environment, followed with possible future trends. Defining variables and parameters/constraints: Before we can plot the data points into a graph; we must first define the variables from the data given, as well as discuss any of the parameters. There are two different variables given to us, the independent and dependent variables. The different variables in the given data are as follows: Independent: The independent variable would be the year. This variable is changed by increasing the year by one and taking note of the total mass of fish caught in that particular year. Dependent: The dependent variable for this set of data would be the amount of fish caught in each year. This variable is observed by noticing the mass of fish caught after every change of the year. The mass of fish caught can only change when the year has changed, which is why it is dependent on the years changing. The parameters or constraints in a particular set of data points are the factors in models that are constants related to the independent and dependent variables. They are also known as Constant variables in a set of data points. Possible parameters may be environmental factors such as the weather, economical issues and government rules, demand of the fish in local and international markets.

Page 1

Plotting of points (Fish caught in the sea): The data points for each fishing environment were plotted using GeoGebra 4 for Windows 7. The points have been plotted on a scatter graph to best show the pattern.

Trends in the graph The graph above is for the total fish caught from the sea. Looking at the graph, we can notice that there are a number of trends. From the years 1980 to 1988, or from the 1st point to the 8th point on the x axis, there is a linear increase seen, in fact, we can see that the data on the graph reaches its highest point in 1988, at approximately 670 tonnes of fish caught. Furthermore, the number of fish caught reduces; resulting in a smaller total mass of fish caught and that is why the graph shows a downward slope. This continues until the year 1991, where the data points on the graph is at its lowest point, at approximately 357 tonnes of fish caught. After the year 1991, the graph shows another upward slope all the way to 1995, where the graph reaches its second highest point at approximately 634 tonnes of fish caught. After the year 1995 all the way to 2006, the graph displays a series of rises and falls showing a wave-like form with the points. Overall, the only decrease we can see in the graph is between the years 1998 and 1991.

Page 2

Suggestion of models The trends in the graph results in a number of models or functions that may be associated with the particular set of points in the graph, a number of models can be suggested for the graph such as: Polynomial function: A polynomial graph is represented by an increase and decrease of the points on a graph, which this graph illustrates a lot, because a polynomial graph is usually defined as collection of upward and downward curves, therefore it is the best way to describe the graph above. Linear function: The graph displays a constant or linear increase in a number of areas on the graph and as a whole, the graph also appears to be increasing as the total mass of fish increases every year with the exception of some decreases. Therefore, a linear model can be used to describe the graph. Cubic function: The graph, mostly from the year 1988, shows the shape of a cubic graph or what the graph of a cubic function may look like, as it shows an upward and downward sloping shape of the graph, which can be related to a cubic function, hence the graph can also be interpreted by a cubic function or model Analytical Development of models to relate with data points: To develop a suitable model/s for the data points on the graph, we should split the graph into a number of sections relating to the trends of the graph I discussed earlier. The table of data provided for us has been divided into 3 different pieces or intervals, which you can also see in the graph. As different trends are seen in the graph reflected in the different intervals of the graph, I will separate the graph into 3 different sections and for each interval I will be analysing and make a suitable model. The 3 different sections I will be using are: 1980 x 1988 1989 x 1998 1999 x 2006

For a better visual picture of the sections, I plotted a graph for each interval.

Page 3

Plotting of points (Fish caught in the sea): Graph for interval 1980 x 1988:

The graph above shows the interval 1980 x 1988 with a line of best fit so that you can easily see the linear function I explained earlier. The equation for this interval is in the form of: F(x)= ax+b. From this equation, we can see that there are 2 of the variables that are unknown, a and b. To find these variables, we take two points from the graph so we can do a simple substation and solve for a and b. The two points I will be taking from the graph are (2, 470.2) and (6, 575.4). Using these values I will substitute the points into the equation and solving for the values of a and b: To find a and b with the points (3, 503.4) and (6, 575.4): 2a+b=470.2 6a+b=575.4 We solve this be using simultaneous equations. I used my Graphics Display Calculator (GDC) to solve these equations with the PlySmlt2 programme (Press [2nd] [MATRX], press [MATRX]). Scroll to Edit. Press [1] to access matrix A. Input the dimensions [2] [ENTER] [3] [ENTER]. Input the matrix entries, pressing enter after each value. Press [2nd] [QUIT] [2nd] [MATRX]. Scroll to MATH. Press [ALPHA] [B] [2nd] [MATRX] [1] [)] [ENTER])

Page 4

Solving the equations gives you the equation for the first interval: F(x)= 52.6x+365 Graph for interval 1989 x 1998:

The graph above is for the interval 1989 x 1998. The graph shows that with the line of best fit that the interval shows an upward and downward curve trend that is described as a polynomial function which I also explained earlier. The graph of this interval resembles the shape of a cubic function; therefore we can say that the best way to describe the graph in this would be a negative cubed function. The equation for this interval is in the form: ( ) In the above equation there are 4 variables that are unknown. They are a, b, c and d .The 4 points I chose to help me find the unknowns are (2, 450.5), (4, 356.9), (6, 548.8), and (9, 527.8). Now that we have our points we can substitute the values and solve to find the unknowns: 2a3+2b2+2c+d=450.5 4a3+4b2+4c+d=356.9 6a3+6b2+6c+d=548.8 9a3+9b2+9c+d=527.8

Page 5

I used my Graphics Display Calculator (GDC) to solve these equations with the PlySmlt2 programme (Press [2nd] [MATRX], press [MATRX]). Scroll to Edit. Press [1] to access matrix A. Input the dimensions [4] [ENTER] [5] [ENTER]. Input the matrix entries, pressing enter after each value. Press [2nd] [QUIT] [2nd] [MATRX]. Scroll to MATH. Press [ALPHA] [B] [2nd] [MATRX] [1] [)] [ENTER]) Solving the equations gives you the equation for the second interval: ( ) Just to show the negative cubed function on the second interval graph:

Page 6

Graph for interval 1999 x 2006:

The graph above shows the last interval 1999 x 2006. As we can see in this interval, the best fit line shows that the graph is again going showing a linear trend which we can use as a linear function. The equation for this interval is in the form of: F(x)= ax+b. Again we have 2 variables that are unknown. The points I chose to solve the equation are (4, 566.7) and (6,550.5). Using these points I substituted to solve: 4a+b=566.7 6a+b=550.5 I used my Graphics Display Calculator (GDC) to solve these equations with the PlySmlt2 programme (Press [2nd] [MATRX], press [MATRX]). Scroll to Edit. Press [1] to access matrix A. Input the dimensions [2] [ENTER] [3] [ENTER]. Input the matrix entries, pressing enter after each value. Press [2nd] [QUIT] [2nd] [MATRX]. Scroll to MATH. Press [ALPHA] [B] [2nd] [MATRX] [1] [)] [ENTER])

Page 7

Solving the equations gives you the equation for the third interval: F(x)= -8.1x+599.1 To visualize it better. The graph below shows the equation in relation to the third interval graph:

Now that we have analysed the three intervals we can now come up with a model for the data points of the fish caught in the sea. The model for fish caught in the sea is: At: 1980 x 1988 the model is F(x) = 52.6x+365 1989 x 1998 the model is ( ) 1999 x 2006 the model is F(x) = -8.1x+599.1

Page 8

Plotting of points (Fish Farm):

Trends found in graph: The graph above is for total fish caught from a fish farm. The graph shows that there is a great increase from the year 1980 to 2000 as the graph shows an upward sloping curve. From 2001 to 2002 there is a steep decrease that can be seen in the graph, this is then followed by another upward slope from 2003 onwards. The data on the graph for the fish caught in a fish farm are much lower than that of the data on the graph for the fish caught in the sea, because of this; the model that I previously found cannot be used for this data. Therefore we must come up with a new model.

Suggesting new model for Fish Farm: Like the model for the fish caught in the sea we can come up with a model by breaking the data points into sections or intervals The 3 intervals Ill be using for the fish farms are: 1980 x 1999 2000 x 2003 2004 x 2006

Page 9

Graph for 1980 x 1999:

The graph above shows that there is an exponential trend in the graph, so we can describe it as an exponential function.

Using GeoGebra 4 for Windows and the PlySmlt2 programme on the GDC, the new equation of the graph in this interval is: F(x) = 1.023(1.22)x

Page 10

Graph for 2000 x 2003:

The graph above shows the interval 2000 x 2003. The graph shows that the interval shows a linear trend and thats why we can describe it as a linear function.

Using GeoGebra 4 for Windows and the PlySmlt2 programme on the GDC, the new equation of the graph in this interval is: F(x) = 9x+254

Page 11

Graph for 2004 x 2006:

The graph above shows the data for the interval 2004 x 2006. The graph shows that the data points show a linear trend and this is why we can describe it as a linear function. Using GeoGebra 4 for Windows and the PlySmlt2 programme on the GDC, the new equation of the graph in this interval is: F(x) = 16x+300

Now that we have analysed the three intervals we can now come up with a model for the data points of the fish caught in fish farms. The model for fish caught in fish farms is: At: 1980 x 1999 the model is F(x) = 1.023(1.22)x 2000 x 2003 the model is F(x) = 9x+254 2004 x 2006 the model is F(x) = 16x+300

Page 12

Discussion of the trends in the Models: After looking at the trends from both the sets of data points for the fish caught in the sea and the fish farms, I noticed that during the increase of the total mass of fish from fish farms, there is a gradual decrease of the total mass of fish caught from the sea. This is how the relationship between the two different environments is displayed. The causes of this could be the explanation for this situation between the fish from the farms and the sea. These causes include: Government policies Sewage dumps/pollution Restriction on the size of fish that is allowed to be caught at sea. Improvements in technology Government policies. For example, there could be a law made against sea-fishing, to promote the domestic farm fishing which could explain the decrease for farm-fishing due to increase in demand for fish from the fish farm. Restriction on the size of the fish that is allowed to be caught at sea is very inconvenient for fishing in the sea, which will cause a slow decrease in the amount of fish caught from the sea. This however will lead to an increase in demand for farm fish as the demand for sea fish will not be met, thus explaining the increase in the fish farm fish. Sewage dumps/pollution from large factories or industrial structures which lead to the deterioration of amounts of fish caught from the sea. As the sewage dumps pollute the sea, the amount of fish in the sea tends to decrease due to increase deaths in the sea, therefore again reducing the amount of fish caught from the sea and in turn increasing the demand for fish from the farms. Improvements in technology are in favour of fish farms and this can be dynamic for the increase of fish from the fish farms, due to increased variety and improved quality from the fish in the farms, which is also another likely cause for the rise of amount of fish in fish farms. Possible trends in the Future for both types of fishing: While a gradual decrease is noticed from fish from the sea, it tends to show an upward linear trend towards the end of the graph, opposite to the display of an exponential increase trend in the fish from the fish farms. The possible trends in the future would be a continuation of each of the trends from both of the environments. However, due to the exponential increase, the fish from the fish farms will eventually increase to the point where it catches up with the fish from the sea and the two graphs will intersect, in turn causing the farm fish to replace the sea fish as the main supplier of fish. This break-even point for the two types of fishing will cause the fish from the fish farm to replace the fish from the sea as the main contributor or supplier of fish for the many years which is better for the seas ecosystems and environment.

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